PDA

View Full Version : First election predictions...


oldandslow
06-27-2006, 10:58 AM
Since Ringleader has departed the premises, I thought I would come up with the first, albeit very early, election prognosis. This one deals with the senate. I will do the house at some later time.

Alas, I fear there is a very slight chance that the dems can retake the senate. Unfortunately (or gleefully if you are on the other side of the aisle) there are far too many dem incumbents for a switch to happen. In fact I would bet many dollars (if I were that sort of person) that the Repubs would hold, albeit lose 3 seats.

Here is my breakdown….(btw, this was the reason I was asking about the MO race yesterday)

AZ – Republican Kyl will hold this seat. He has a huge lead in the polls. Even (R)
CA – When is the last time a republican won a senate seat in CA? Feinstein. Even (D)
CN – Liebermon or Lamont beats Wicker. (although dems count Joe as a loss) Even (D)
DE – Dem stronghold. Carper wins big. Even (D)
FL – Two words – Katherine Harris. Nelson wins easily. Even (D)
HA – Akaka is quite safe. Even (D)
ME – Republican moderates own this state. Snowe wins. Even (R)
MD- Sarbanes quit. Doesn’t matter. Steele has no chance. Dem wins. Even (D)
MA- Kennedy again, and again, and again…..Even (D)
MI – Stabenow becoming powerhouse. Huge poll lead. Even (D)
MN – Dayton was terrible. Still Klobucher will beat up on Kennedy. Even (D)
MS – Trent Lott. Southern State. ‘nuff said. Even (R)
MO – McCaskill beats Talent. Strong contender, inferior incumbent. Pick-up (D)
MT – Morrison is killing Burns who is linked to scandal. Pick-up (D)
NB – Nelson is further right than Snowe or Collins but still a dem. Even (D)
NV – Jimmy is helping Jack (Carter). Ensign wins. Even (R)
NJ - Nasty race but Menendez wins. Even (D)
NM – Bingaman has an almost 70% approval rating. He’ll win. Even (D)
NY- ain’t nobody beating Hillary. Even (D)
ND – Hoeven runs, Hoeven wins. He’s not running. Conrad wins. Even (D)
OH – Dems must win this race. They won’t. DeWine wins. Even (R)
PA – Santorum’s an idiot. Casey is pro-life. Pick-up (D)
RI – RINO Chaffee wins again. Even (R)
TN – Frist quitting. No matter. Corker will beat Ford. Even (R)
TX – Kay Bailey Hutcheson is safe. Even R
UT – If Jesus ran as a dem in Utah, he would lose. Even (R)
VT – Sanders wins. Takes Jeffords spot. Even (I, but essentially D –moreso with Bernie)
VA – Allen beats Webb. Even (R)
WI - Thompson decides not to run. Kohl safe. Even (D)

The Senate is at 55-44 Rep (one Ind who is essentially D) at this time. Dems will pick up three seats – MO, MT, & PA to make it a 52- 47 with 1 ind. IF dems became really lucky and picked off OH, TN, it would still be 50-49. The only way the dems control would be to win all the aforementioned plus VA or RI. I just don’t see that happening.

banyon
06-27-2006, 12:06 PM
I disagree on Harold Ford Jr (TN). He can take whatever the Repubs have to offer.

oldandslow
06-27-2006, 12:27 PM
I disagree on Harold Ford Jr (TN). He can take whatever the Repubs have to offer.

I hope you are right. I have also read that Chafee might be in trouble. If both are true then the dems need to spend a zillion dollars in Ohio.

banyon
06-27-2006, 01:04 PM
These ads are getting a ton of play in the TN television market.

http://www.haroldfordjr.com/images/stories/feature_2500.jpg (http://www.fordfortennessee.com/#)


(click at top, I could not figure how to link videos directly)