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View Full Version : Trent Green NOT an accurate passer?


FringeNC
07-14-2006, 02:14 PM
Not in the top 15 according to ESPN's K.C. Joyner:

Who was the NFL's most accurate passer in 2005? Whenever I bring up the issue of a quarterback's accuracy, I invariably receive a lot of feedback from readers wanting me to clarify what I mean.

An accurate pass can be described simply as a pass thrown within the receiver's catching frame -- the area where the receiver can reach out and get his hands on the ball. If the ball arrives within this frame, it is ruled an accurate pass. Otherwise, it is ruled an inaccurate pass.

Another question I am frequently asked is how do I account for passes thrown well over the head of a receiver, as well as passes thrown away or knocked down. I use a similar line of thinking to the catchable pass idea proposed in the TYPCA metric.

Any pass knocked down or thrown away is removed from the accuracy percentage calculations altogether. I also remove passes attempted when the quarterback is hit just as he throws the ball.

I do count intentional overthrows on deep passes as pass attempts, but they do not count as inaccurate passes. It is a subjective metric, but I use these rules to clarify the metric as much as possible.

I use a percentage basis to rank the quarterbacks, with the lowest inaccuracy percentage being the best. The following is a breakdown of the top five quarterbacks in this metric:

T4. Mark Brunell. Brunell's high accuracy percentage is even more impressive because he was very accurate at all depth levels. Brunell had the eighth-best deep pass accuracy percentage and also ranked in the top five in both the short- and medium-depth levels.

Matt Hasselbeck
AP Photo/Elaine Thompson
Matt Hasselbeck piloted the NFL's highest-scoring offense.

T4. Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck had the same accuracy percentage as Brunell, but arrived at that number in a completely different way. Hasselbeck's medium and deep pass accuracy rates were average, but his short pass accuracy (91 percent) was phenomenal. The Seahawks' offensive improvement last year was mostly attributed to more consistent play from the receivers, but the quarterback certainly did his part.

T2. Brian Griese. Griese's accuracy metrics were unusual. He had the second-best short pass accuracy percentage, which is something you would expect from a quarterback in a Jon Gruden offense (Griese has since moved on to Chicago).

However, extremely accurate short-pass quarterbacks typically are not as accurate on deeper routes. Such was the case with Griese on medium passes, for which his percentage was merely average. But the odd part was that Griese ranked first in deep pass accuracy percentage. Even keeping in mind that he played in only six games last year, that is quite an accomplishment.

T2. Carson Palmer. Palmer's metrics indicate his passes get better the deeper he throws them. He ranked a mere 12th in short pass accuracy, but made up for it by placing in the top three in both medium and deep pass accuracy.

1. Marc Bulger. What makes this finding most amazing to me is that Bulger played in an offense that was one of the most vertically inclined in the entire league. Bulger had the fourth-highest percentage of deep passes and the sixth-highest percentage of medium passes, yet was still able to approach the 90 percent mark in the accuracy metric.

Bulger had the highest medium pass accuracy percentage, the third-best deep pass percentage, and the seventh-best short pass percentage. He is almost never mentioned as one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL, but these metrics offer very convincing proof he belongs in that discussion.

As for where some of the other big-name quarterbacks ended up, here are the top 15 quarterbacks in this category:

1. Marc Bulger -- 10.2
2. Carson Palmer -- 11.2
2. Brian Griese -- 11.2
4. Matt Hasselbeck -- 11.8
4. Mark Brunell -- 11.8
6. Kelly Holcomb -- 12.3
7. Brad Johnson -- 12.5
8. Peyton Manning -- 12.6
9. Byron Leftwich -- 13.2
10. Drew Brees -- 13.8
11. Aaron Brooks -- 13.9
12. David Carr -- 14.0
13. Anthony Wright -- 14.4
14. Chris Simms -- 14.6
15. Steve McNair -- 15.0

DaKCMan AP
07-14-2006, 02:17 PM
Leftwich and Brooks being on that list is ROFL

Fish
07-14-2006, 02:17 PM
......and LJ isn't an elite back either.....


Who f*ckin cares............

SPchief
07-14-2006, 02:21 PM
Marc ****ing Bulger???

MahiMike
07-14-2006, 02:21 PM
Huh??? Trent Green is nothing if not accurate.

Someone said he doesn't have a gun and it's getting worse with age. I disagree. Trent Green's arm is like the "Hall and Oates" of the NFL. His type is upbeat, trendy and easy going enough to last him into his early 40's.

Guys like Jeff George, Vick, McNair are the Aerosmiths of the NFL. Hard and fast and quick to burn out.

Ok, I'm not sure anyone's gonna understand this....it's Friday!

DaKCMan AP
07-14-2006, 02:23 PM
Bulger did have a 67% completion percentage.

MahiMike
07-14-2006, 02:23 PM
Leftwich and Brooks being on that list is ROFL

no shit. That makes the rest of the article useless. Leftwich can't throw 10 yards accurately. If not for a bunch of 6'6" receivers making acrobatic catches, his numbers would be way down.

DaKCMan AP
07-14-2006, 02:26 PM
Palmer - 68%
Manning - 67%
Hasselbeck - 65.5%
Trent - 62%
Big Ben - 63%
Brady - 63%
Joke Plummer = 61%


Leftwich - 58%
Brunell - 58%
Brooks - 56%

Der Flöprer
07-14-2006, 02:28 PM
This Joyner guy has lost all credibility and will probably not be working for ESPN.com soon enough. They should put a disclaimer at the bottom of his articles stating crystal clear that they do not share in the dumbassery of the author.

CupidStunt
07-14-2006, 02:30 PM
T4. Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck had the same accuracy percentage as Brunell, but arrived at that number in a completely different way. Hasselbeck's medium and deep pass accuracy rates were average, but his short pass accuracy (91 percent) was phenomenal. The Seahawks' offensive improvement last year was mostly attributed to more consistent play from the receivers, but the quarterback certainly did his part.
es get better the deeper he throws them. He ranked a mere 12th in short pass accuracy, but made up for it by placing in the top three in both medium and deep pass accuracy.

No shit.

Peyton Manning would have an 80 percent completion rate if he played in that gimmicky system.

noa
07-14-2006, 02:52 PM
If I devised a formula where Aaron Brooks was rated as more accurate than 20 other QBs, I'd take that as a sign to start over. This article is completely meaningless. Anthony Wright? Come on, that's just absurd.

bobbything
07-14-2006, 03:05 PM
If I devised a formula where Aaron Brooks was rated as more accurate than 20 other QBs, I'd take that as a sign to start over. This article is completely meaningless. Anthony Wright? Come on, that's just absurd.
This is very true. His formula is flawed if guys like Brad Johnson, Brian Griese, Kelly Holcomb, Aaron Brooks, et al, are ranked above guys like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Trent Green.

All you have to do to prove his system fallable is take an ESPN online poll and ask this question:

Who would you rather have as the QB of your team?

1) a. Kelly Holcomb, or b. Peyton Manning
2) a. Brian Griese, or b. Tom Brady
3) a. Anthony Wright, or b. Trent Green

Argument closed.

hypersensitiveZO6
07-14-2006, 03:10 PM
Another espn educated article.

Psyko Tek
07-14-2006, 03:20 PM
we're doomed I tell you

our qb sucks,
our running back is not elite
our d is in ruins

DOOMED, I TELL YA'

DTCHIEF4EVER
07-14-2006, 03:26 PM
As long as he's just good enough for me to win my fantasy league........AGAIN!!

CoMoChief
07-14-2006, 03:28 PM
Bulger had the highest medium pass accuracy percentage, the third-best deep pass percentage, and the seventh-best short pass percentage. He is almost never mentioned as one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL, but these metrics offer very convincing proof he belongs in that discussion.

As for where some of the other big-name quarterbacks ended up, here are the top 15 quarterbacks in this category:

1. Marc Bulger -- 10.2
2. Carson Palmer -- 11.2
2. Brian Griese -- 11.2
4. Matt Hasselbeck -- 11.8
4. Mark Brunell -- 11.8
6. Kelly Holcomb -- 12.3
7. Brad Johnson -- 12.5
8. Peyton Manning -- 12.6
9. Byron Leftwich -- 13.2
10. Drew Brees -- 13.8
11. Aaron Brooks -- 13.9
12. David Carr -- 14.0
13. Anthony Wright -- 14.4
14. Chris Simms -- 14.6
15. Steve McNair -- 15.0

Marc Bulger?!?!? Last time I checked he had damn near a 1 to 1 TD/INT ratio. So much for being accurate.

hypersensitiveZO6
07-14-2006, 03:36 PM
we're doomed I tell you

our qb sucks,
our running back is not elite
our d is in ruins

DOOMED, I TELL YA'


Its all positive. The more shit ESPN give small market KC, the better chance we have at doing better.

jidar
07-14-2006, 03:40 PM
Green isn't going to gun it downfield, but he's definately one of the most accurate. Don't know wtf this guy is thinking.

Inspector
07-14-2006, 04:07 PM
Between this and the LJ comments, ESPN is looking like a bunch of idiots.

But, this is probably good for our team. Keep them wanting to prove themselves.

Mr. Laz
07-14-2006, 04:13 PM
i know i'm gonna take heat ... but i've never thought Green was particularly accurate on deep passes.

he's not very accurate on the move either.


He's accurate on the short and medium stuff though..... which fits our offense, so it's good.

FringeNC
07-14-2006, 04:19 PM
Yeah, seeing Anthony Wright in there made me question the whole thing.

Using stats to measure individual performance is so much harder in football than it is in baseball. Personally, I think QB rating is more consistent to what I see on the field than this rating is. And actually, simple yards per attempt may in fact be better than the complex rating formula, in my opinion.

Actually, another way to look at this in that raw accuracy is overrated, and his numbers are actually correct. It could be reading the field and finding the hot receiver is way more important the accuracy. I don't know. I just don't think there is anyway Trent isn't a top 15 QB.

Psyko Tek
07-14-2006, 04:21 PM
Between this and the LJ comments, ESPN is looking like a bunch of idiots.

But, this is probably good for our team. Keep them wanting to prove themselves.


all part of their master plan so KC can be the cinderella team this year

StcChief
07-14-2006, 05:10 PM
all part of their master plan so KC can be the cinderella team this year

or they can toot their horn at the end if they are right.

These guys aren't betting their job/career on this BS.

CoMoChief
07-14-2006, 05:35 PM
Trent Green isnt accurate, TonyG isnt one of the best TE's in the NFL, our Oline is terrible, LJ and Priest Holmes are both pieces of garbage, Jared Allen is a terrible DE, Patrick Surtain sucks, and our Head Coach is white.

Warrior5
07-14-2006, 08:48 PM
Just play mad, Trent!

keg in kc
07-14-2006, 09:00 PM
In the confines of the discussion, which is that "An accurate pass can be described simply as a pass thrown within the receiver's catching frame -- the area where the receiver can reach out and get his hands on the ball. If the ball arrives within this frame, it is ruled an accurate pass. Otherwise, it is ruled an inaccurate pass." Trent Green is not accurate and he never has been.

However, while he's not the most accurate passer in that sense (he throws a lot of high passes and the occasional gopher ball), his throws are generally catchable with a little movement. He gets them in the area of the receiver, and usually in such a way that the receiver can adjust to the ball, pull it into his body, and make a move upfield. Which is what we're looking for...

And while he does throw high, he doesn't generally get his receivers killed by safeties, which is another plus.

Halfcan
07-14-2006, 10:02 PM
Just play mad, Trent!

LOL well he is the best Blocking QB in the league.

thepascalblaze
07-14-2006, 10:16 PM
I think keg's on point here. This guy's definition of accuracy is questionable. I know he wants it to be some quantifiable thing that an observer/writer can attach numbers to and talk about statistically, but really I think accuracy is something more simple and less observable. It is simply a matter of whether or not the ball went where the qb intended. You can't observe the qb's intentions, but watching Trent, he seems to position the ball very precisely most of the time. It looks to me like he's trying to put it where the reciever has a shot and the defender doesn't. He makes Gonzales jump a lot...safe bet. He makes Dante do that hook back squat down like a frog thing that only Dante can do... Those things to me seem logical and probably intentional thus accurate, though the writer' system would not credit these passes with the accuracy they are due.

Immaculate
07-14-2006, 11:18 PM
Yet another case of Trent Green being underrated. It's ok, Real football fans know whats up.

Guru
07-14-2006, 11:33 PM
LOL well he is the best Blocking QB in the league.


HELL YEAH!!!!!

Thig Lyfe
07-14-2006, 11:55 PM
ESPN is retarded. So... yeah.

Mr. Laz
07-15-2006, 12:00 AM
Yet another case of Trent Green being underrated. It's ok, Real football fans know whats up.
do they?


.... or is it the homer glasses talking?

Count Alex's Losses
07-15-2006, 12:21 AM
do they?


.... or is it the homer glasses talking?

No. Real football fans know.

http://img95.imageshack.us/img95/1610/clipboard02no2.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

chubychecker
07-15-2006, 12:34 AM
do they?


.... or is it the homer glasses talking?

Both; Trent is good; has been good. Not great. I'm afraid that some folks here as well as the local media overestimate trent. He has been very fortunate playing in a great system, behind an unbelievable offensive line.

I know we have had below average recievers, but have also had the best receiving tight end ever, until the last year, in Gonzales.

Trent is top 10. Maybe even top 7 or so; but I don't believe he's top 5, nor has he been for two years, despite what the stats show.

patteeu
07-15-2006, 09:16 AM
Huh??? Trent Green is nothing if not accurate.

Someone said he doesn't have a gun and it's getting worse with age. I disagree. Trent Green's arm is like the "Hall and Oates" of the NFL. His type is upbeat, trendy and easy going enough to last him into his early 40's.

Guys like Jeff George, Vick, McNair are the Aerosmiths of the NFL. Hard and fast and quick to burn out.

Ok, I'm not sure anyone's gonna understand this....it's Friday!

:hmmm: Aerosmith lasted a hell of a lot longer than Hall and Oates did.

Lurch
07-15-2006, 09:44 AM
This Joyner guy is a complete joke.

Mr. Laz
07-15-2006, 10:08 AM
Both; Trent is good; has been good. Not great. I'm afraid that some folks here as well as the local media overestimate trent. He has been very fortunate playing in a great system, behind an unbelievable offensive line.

I know we have had below average recievers, but have also had the best receiving tight end ever, until the last year, in Gonzales.

Trent is top 10. Maybe even top 7 or so; but I don't believe he's top 5, nor has he been for two years, despite what the stats show.
you must not be a "real" football fan






go read a book or sumthin'

Bowser
07-15-2006, 11:12 AM
Hasn't Trent set a record of four straight years with a QB rating over 90, or some such?

Mr. Laz
07-15-2006, 11:24 AM
Hasn't Trent set a record of four straight years with a QB rating over 90, or some such?
don't know ......


but productive and super accuracy are not mutually inclusive.



Green fits our offense and gets the job done ....... but he's not all that accurate.

Bowser
07-15-2006, 11:27 AM
don't know ......


but productive and super accuracy are not mutually inclusive.



Green fits our offense and gets the job done ....... but he's not all that accurate.

As I'm sure Jim Brown would have been a scrub in Walsh's WCO.

Mr. Laz
07-15-2006, 11:30 AM
As I'm sure Jim Brown would have been a scrub in Walsh's WCO.
the type of offense dramatically effects the productivity of any player.

craneref
07-15-2006, 11:32 AM
Both; Trent is good; has been good. Not great. I'm afraid that some folks here as well as the local media overestimate trent. He has been very fortunate playing in a great system, behind an unbelievable offensive line.

I know we have had below average recievers, but have also had the best receiving tight end ever, until the last year, in Gonzales.

Trent is top 10. Maybe even top 7 or so; but I don't believe he's top 5, nor has he been for two years, despite what the stats show.

There is NO way Green is overestimated. Not only is he the ONLY QB to post 4 consecutive 90 plus PASSER RATING seasons, but has also thrown for over 4,000 the last three years. If ANY otherQB in the league put up the numbers that Trent has the last four years, there would be no debate. In saying Tren is not one of the top 5 QB's in the leage is ludicrous. Remember a race car is only as good as its driver, using your theory, Montana, Aikman, Marino, Fouts, Bradshaw and the rest were mediocre at best, becasue they all play with some fine telent if I remember right! To best guage where Trent ranks in the league, who in the hell off that list would you rather have at QB than Trent, who whould the rest of the NFL pick? The only one on the list I would pick would be Manning, however, I still think that Trent is more of a team player and a better leader, he has a knack for getting out of trouble and still finds a way to run VERY effectively. Trent gets plenty of love from me, I wouldn't trade him for anyone on the list! GO CHIEFS!

JBucc
07-15-2006, 11:34 AM
Trent really isn't all that accurate, it's just our stud recievers bail him out all the time on jump balls and diving catches.

dj56dt58
07-15-2006, 12:41 PM
Those idiots on espn say our qb sucks, our rb sucks, and our defense sucks..yet they argued forever on whether or not kc could beat pitt in pitt to get to the afc chamionship game and said if it was in kc that the chiefs would win and go to the afc championship game. wtf is wrong w/ these people? it's like they try to cover every possible scenario so no matter what they can say they were right at the end..

FAX
07-15-2006, 02:19 PM
Question. Does QB rating not take into account the issue of passing accuracy in any way?

FAX

milkman
07-15-2006, 02:24 PM
Question. Does QB rating not take into account the issue of passing accuracy in any way?

FAX

The QB rating system is so complicated, I don't think anyone really knows the answer to that question. :)

R&GHomer
07-15-2006, 02:27 PM
Hasn't Trent set a record of four straight years with a QB rating over 90, or some such?

Not sure, but I'm sure I read somewhere that he is amoung the top 4 QB's ever with three consecutive 4k plus seasons.

FAX
07-15-2006, 02:43 PM
Well ... Mr. milkman, I'm confident that you know all or most of this already, however, I thought I'd flesh it out anyhow since fleshing stuff out is one of the 4 best things a guy can do by himself.

The basics of the QB rating appear to be as follows:

• Percentage of completions per attempt
• Average yards gained per attempt
• Percentage of touchdown passes per attempt
• Percentage of interceptions per attempt

The link to the NFL's absurd attempt to explain the specifics is here Link To Madness Incarnate (http://www.nfl.com/news/981202qbrate.html).

Basically, completion percentage is a primary factor. And, of course, completion percentage equates to accuracy (one would think). Considering the fact that a large percentage of Chiefs TDs have been rushing scores over the past few years, this would drive down Trent's overall rating since touchdown percentage via the pass is also a factor.

If I recall correctly, Trent Green has had a QB rating of over 90 over the past 4 years. Therefore, it stands to reason that Trent is a pretty darn accurate passer and those who say otherwise are examples of why tool sheds were invented.

FAX