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View Full Version : Will 10-6 make the playoffs?


chiefsfan1963
10-02-2006, 09:15 PM
Just curious what everyone thoughts are. I'm thinking 11-5 is a definite in, but 10-6 looks iffy.

noa
10-02-2006, 09:18 PM
I think the lowest wild card spot will go to a 10-6 team, but that other 10-6 teams will miss the playoffs due to tiebreakers.

cdcox
10-02-2006, 09:20 PM
Right now, its about 90% sure that 10-6 will get the Chiefs in the playoffs this year.

Logical
10-02-2006, 09:35 PM
Although I will defer to cdcox for the probabilities, my gut feeling is that there are too many really strong and really weak teams for it to be likely.

JBucc
10-02-2006, 09:35 PM
No.

OldTownChief
10-02-2006, 09:37 PM
10-6 may win the AFC West.

Mr. Kotter
10-02-2006, 09:40 PM
Yes.

This year, it will. :thumb:

|Zach|
10-02-2006, 09:44 PM
10-6 may win the AFC West.
I really think this is our ticket to the playoffs. Winning the division.

FAX
10-02-2006, 09:46 PM
If 10 and 6 gets you in, and assuming that all the tittygraphs indicate that the Chiefs go 10 and 6, where will the next 4 losses come from?

FAX

MahiMike
10-02-2006, 09:57 PM
Yes. 9 wins might make it this year. The teams that did well last year have pretty tough schedules. Jags, Steelers, Bengals all will beat each other up.

However the point is moot for a team that will win only 6 games...)

FAX
10-02-2006, 09:57 PM
After a cursory scan of the schedule, I would pick Pittsburgh, San Diego, Seattle, and Baltimore as potential losses. Or maybe swap Baltimore with J'ville depending on how things go later in the season. But, the seemingly most difficult teams are playing us at Arrowhead.

Lord, we have a favorable schedule this year.

FAX

cdcox
10-02-2006, 09:59 PM
Although I will defer to cdcox for the probabilities, my gut feeling is that there are too many really strong and really weak teams for it to be likely.

Look at it this way. We have 2 losses already, with 4 more losses to give to get to 10-6. We have the following games against other AFC contenders:

Steelers
SD x2
Denver
Ravens
Jacksonville

So chances are if we make 10-6 will have beaten some of those teams and have tiebreaker advantages over them. The worst case for KC tiebreakers would be if we lost games to the Steelers, SD once, Ravens and Jax and won all the others. Still, in this case our odds would be like 82%.

There are also enough games between the top teams that not all of them are going to go 11-5 or better. Missing the playoffs last year with a 10-6 record was pretty rare.

Gravedigger
10-02-2006, 10:02 PM
I think 10-6 could win this division I honestly do.

cdcox
10-02-2006, 10:04 PM
After a cursory scan of the schedule, I would pick Pittsburgh, San Diego, Seattle, and Baltimore as potential losses. Or maybe swap Baltimore with J'ville depending on how things go later in the season. But, the seemingly most difficult teams are playing us at Arrowhead.

Lord, we have a favorable schedule this year.

FAX

Most teams win one or two that they shouldn't and lose one or two that they should have won. Trying to pick the exact games is very, very long odds. If we drop one to, let's say, the Bronws, and still get to 10-6, that favors us becuase we get a win against a conteder than helps us more with the tiebreakers.

raptorrage
10-02-2006, 10:08 PM
If we finish 10-6 and were looking at a wildcard spot. We all know how important AFC divisonal match ups will usually be looking at Head-head match up's first so far we have already lost to another AFC opponent
let say cinci also finishes 10-6 we will fall short of the playoffs with a 10-6 record . But cinci might fall apart and finish 9-7 but i say 11-5 to make the playoffs

FAX
10-02-2006, 10:10 PM
Most teams win one or two that they shouldn't and lose one or two that they should have won. Trying to pick the exact games is very, very long odds. If we drop one to, let's say, the Bronws, and still get to 10-6, that favors us becuase we get a win against a conteder than helps us more with the tiebreakers.

That makes sense, Mr. cdcox. The contenders (at least to this point) appear to be as you have listed them, but we get several of those teams at home.

We have Seattle, Baltimore, and J'ville at home. And, of course Denver and one of the Sandy Eggo games. These are, on paper, our most difficult opponents. That leaves us with Pittsburgh, and Sandy Eggo away. We also play Miami away, of course, and we traditionally have difficulty there, but they're terrible (up to this point, at least). I have to believe that we will sweep the Raiders.

How do the percentages skew when you calculate in home field advantage?

FAX

Woodrow Call
10-02-2006, 10:11 PM
I really think this is our ticket to the playoffs. Winning the division.

I think the Chiefs have a legit chance. IF the D keeps this up and offense has finally found its groove, I think this is the best team in the division.

PastorMikH
10-02-2006, 10:15 PM
Depends on what the rest of the AFC West does. We could go 9-7 and make it in with the way the rest of the AFCW looks right now. Denver isn't the team they have been in the past. SD has yet to beat a halfway decent team. The Raiders are playing great if you are a Chiefs fan. I could realisitically see Denver and SD going 8-8 or 9-7. I could see the Raiders going 0-16.

cdcox
10-02-2006, 10:23 PM
That makes sense, Mr. cdcox. The contenders (at least to this point) appear to be as you have listed them, but we get several of those teams at home.

We have Seattle, Baltimore, and J'ville at home. And, of course Denver and one of the Sandy Eggo games. These are, on paper, our most difficult opponents. That leaves us with Pittsburgh, and Sandy Eggo away. We also play Miami away, of course, and we traditionally have difficulty there, but they're terrible (up to this point, at least). I have to believe that we will sweep the Raiders.

How do the percentages skew when you calculate in home field advantage?

FAX

The simulation I did to get the 90% chance already considers HFA.

The four games I (actually pre-aeason Vegas) have us most likely to lose are:

at Pittsburg
at SD
at Miami
at Arizona

Obviously Arizona (and possibly Miami) should be replaced by the likes of Seattle, Baltimore, SD, Jax and Denver. If we can win out at home, I like our chances very much.

FAX
10-02-2006, 10:29 PM
The simulation I did to get the 90% chance already considers HFA.

The four games I (actually pre-aeason Vegas) have us most likely to lose are:

at Pittsburg
at SD
at Miami
at Arizona

Obviously Arizona (and possibly Miami) should be replaced by the likes of Seattle, Baltimore, SD, Jax and Denver. If we can win out at home, I like our chances very much.

Fascinating, Mr. cdcox.

I'm a little surprised at the AZ game. I would place the Seattle game ahead of them even though it's at home.

As the season unfolds, the probabilities become more clear, correct? I mean, as the relative strength of the Chiefs vs our upcoming opponents is revealed?

FAX

Logical
10-02-2006, 10:38 PM
Look at it this way. We have 2 losses already, with 4 more losses to give to get to 10-6. We have the following games against other AFC contenders:

Steelers
SD x2
Denver
Ravens
Jacksonville

So chances are if we make 10-6 will have beaten some of those teams and have tiebreaker advantages over them. The worst case for KC tiebreakers would be if we lost games to the Steelers, SD once, Ravens and Jax and won all the others. Still, in this case our odds would be like 82%.

There are also enough games between the top teams that not all of them are going to go 11-5 or better. Missing the playoffs last year with a 10-6 record was pretty rare.Nice analysis. My fear is that a couple of those don't win their divisions and finish 10-6. I think our best odds would be that we win the division with a 10-6 and have tbe internal division tie breakers.

cdcox
10-02-2006, 10:58 PM
Fascinating, Mr. cdcox.

I'm a little surprised at the AZ game. I would place the Seattle game ahead of them even though it's at home.

As the season unfolds, the probabilities become more clear, correct? I mean, as the relative strength of the Chiefs vs our upcoming opponents is revealed?

FAX

Yes. Through this week I've been using power ratings that I calculated from the published Vegas betting lines for over/under regular season wins. Beginning next week, I'll be using a results from the games played this season to get those power ratings. I need each team to play at least 4 games to have any confidence in those power ratings. I'm hoping to have time to figure our a way to do power ratings based on Bayesian statistics this week. That would allow me to combine the preseason ratings with the results of games played thus far. I think that would be the most accurate method of all.

Regardless, things become more clear as the season moves on. I really get a handle on it in week 17. ;)

Anyong Bluth
10-02-2006, 11:01 PM
too bad we're losing AFC games b/c that's gonna end up biting us in the ass.

Throw in Pitt and those are two wild card teams we could be losing a tie breaker to.

Lzen
10-02-2006, 11:01 PM
I think it's way too early to say. But it is always possible that 10-6 does not make the playoffs. I especially hate the fact that with 4 divisions, it makes it even more likely. IMO, the NFL should go to 2 divisions per conference. 2 division winners and 4 wild cards per conference.

cdcox
10-02-2006, 11:07 PM
Nice analysis. My fear is that a couple of those don't win their divisions and finish 10-6. I think our best odds would be that we win the division with a 10-6 and have tbe internal division tie breakers.

That is certainly possible, and yes, in the 82% scenario, most of our chances of making the playoffs come by winning the division.

cdcox
10-02-2006, 11:12 PM
too bad we're losing AFC games b/c that's gonna end up biting us in the ass.

Throw in Pitt and those are two wild card teams we could be losing a tie breaker to.

Conference games are slightly more important for qualifying for the playoffs, but as far as winning the division goes, the NFC West games are exactly of equal importance as the AFC Central games. The least important games for winning the division are the Jacksonville and Miami games. (This is actually the subject of my blog this week, which I should have up on the web site by tomorrow night.)

chiefsfan1963
10-02-2006, 11:14 PM
based on what i'm reading, winning these next road games will give us clear indication of how likely we make the postseason.

but let's say we lose the following games:

steelers, miami, sd-away, jags

finish 10-6 how's our chances?

PastorMikH
10-02-2006, 11:18 PM
based on what i'm reading, winning these next road games will give us clear indication of how likely we make the postseason.

but let's say we lose the following games:

steelers, miami, sd-away, jags

finish 10-6 how's our chances?


Like I said, looking at Denver's and SD's schedules, it would be quite possible that they end up 8-8 or 9-7. 10-6 would definately win the Division if that happens. Then it doesn't matter how good the records of the other AFC teams are, we will be in the playoffs.

cdcox
10-02-2006, 11:31 PM
based on what i'm reading, winning these next road games will give us clear indication of how likely we make the postseason.

but let's say we lose the following games:

steelers, miami, sd-away, jags

finish 10-6 how's our chances?

55% chance of winning the division, 90% chance of making the playoffs.

boogblaster
10-03-2006, 12:16 AM
10-6 is still in the ballpark..cant lose but maybe one more divison game..probably at SD..the way were're playing now we got a chance in every game.....

runnercyclist
10-03-2006, 02:35 AM
Yes. 9 wins might make it this year. The teams that did well last year have pretty tough schedules. Jags, Steelers, Bengals all will beat each other up.

However the point is moot for a team that will win only 6 games...)

Don't give up hope, Jax may win more than 6, Mike.

CupidStunt
10-03-2006, 06:47 AM
I'd guess:

AFCE- NE 11 wins
AFCN- BAL 11 wins
AFCS- IND 11/12 wins
AFCW- DEN 10/11 wins

IMO the wildcards will go to two of: JAX, SD, KC, CIN or PIT.

I don't think the Jaguars are as good as they first looked. They have 2 losses with PHI, NYG, IND, NE and @ KC still to come.

The Bengals have only one loss but still face CAR, ATL, BAL twice, SD, IND, DEN and PIT. That's a tough-ass schedule.

PIT is tied with us at 1-2 and still face ATL, DEN, BAL twice, CIN, SD and CAR.

Obviously we have a tough schedule, too. JAX, SD twice, DEN, BAL, SEA and PIT.