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tk13
10-09-2006, 10:41 PM
I know there's a long way to go, but once again it looks like there is a bit of a divide in the good/bad teams in the AFC.

If the playoffs started today, the playoff teams would be:

New England
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
San Diego
Denver

Does anyone else think that just looks ugly? 4 teams with very ugly offenses, and two good offensive teams in Cincy and Indy who allow like 150 ypg on the ground defensively.

And Cincy has a brutal finish (@ IND, @ DEN, PIT)... if they fell out and Jacksonville slid in, you'd have a real Martyball playoffs.

Who's your Super Bowl favorite in the AFC right now? I have no idea.

JBucc
10-09-2006, 10:42 PM
All of those teams have big flaws. AFC has fallen off quite a bit. I'll go with the Pats just because.

Woodrow Call
10-09-2006, 10:42 PM
I think SD or Denver will get there. Probably Denver :banghead:

Basileus777
10-09-2006, 10:44 PM
The AFC is alot weaker than the NFC this year and no team looks complete. San Diego and New England are the only teams with a semblance of balance. Marty can't go to the Superbowl so I will go with New England.

Mecca
10-09-2006, 10:46 PM
San Diego.....I don't think the AFC is weaker, the Bears just look like the best team of everyone right now that's the only difference. After that one there isn't much difference it isn't like the NFC has great depth either.

tk13
10-09-2006, 10:47 PM
Haha, yeah, actually, that was my first reaction when looking at that list in print.

"Wow, Marty could get to the Super Bowl." That can't be, can it? I guess I like New England too, but the one time they played a good defense in Denver, they were beat down in their own house. I mean I almost like Denver just because they have the best defense. Long way to go I guess.

dirk digler
10-09-2006, 10:48 PM
I would have to go with the Broncos at this point.

Mecca
10-09-2006, 10:50 PM
The Patriots may be winning but they are a team in a transitional/rebuilding mode. It's not that noticeable because they are good enough to make the playoffs in their eh division but I don't think they can make the bowl.

dirk digler
10-09-2006, 10:51 PM
So far this season the Defenses have ruled. Offense production is way down IMHO

GoodDaySir!
10-09-2006, 10:54 PM
Divison games and AFC tiebreakers are going to be huge this year. You have to win against the top teams.

Halfcan
10-09-2006, 10:58 PM
We are as good as any of those teams. I would love to get INDY at home again.

GoodDaySir!
10-09-2006, 10:59 PM
We are as good as any of those teams. I would love to get INDY at home again.

You might be. You might not get the chance to prove it in the playoffs though.

(0-1) In the division and (0-2) in the AFC hurts.

HMc
10-09-2006, 11:02 PM
Chiefs really need to go 11-5 don't they.

cdcox
10-09-2006, 11:09 PM
Overall SD looks the best, but as far as getting to the Bowl, I just think Marty will screw it up. I'll go with Denver right now. With Roaf, Welborn and a healthy Green, I'd like our chances better than anyones.

tk13
10-09-2006, 11:16 PM
So far this season the Defenses have ruled. Offense production is way down IMHO
You might be right. After tonight's Denver game dropped them down... 11 of the top 14 offenses in the NFL are in the NFC.

Scoring offense looks a lot different, but defense, turnovers, etc probably helped there. 6 of the top 8 scoring defenses are in the AFC. All the actual offensive yardage is in the NFC.

SLAG
10-09-2006, 11:19 PM
Chiefs really need to go 11-5 don't they.


Yes they must

because the Best 10-6 would take the last wild card spot-



11-5 is going to VERY tough

cdcox
10-09-2006, 11:21 PM
I noticed the down turn in scoring the first couple weeks and have been living on betting the unders in the simulated betting thread. I'm pretty far ahead in those bets, but am losing it all back on point spread bets.

If you get a bad offense against a good defense, you can pretty much count on 10 pts or less in that half of the game.

tk13
10-09-2006, 11:23 PM
Yeah, the Chiefs might have trouble with wild card tiebreakers... because that's AFC record. Last year we had a really good one because half our losses were against the NFC East. This year we haven't won an AFC game yet, and our next two AFC games are Pittsburgh and SD.

cdcox
10-09-2006, 11:30 PM
Yeah, the Chiefs might have trouble with wild card tiebreakers... because that's AFC record. Last year we had a really good one because half our losses were against the NFC East. This year we haven't won an AFC game yet, and our next two AFC games are Pittsburgh and SD.

I'm alot more worried about getting to 10-6 than I am about the tiebreakers. If we make 10-6 we will only lose 4 more games. That means, by default we will be getting some wins against the likes of:

SD 2x
Denver
Baltimore
Pittsburg
Jacksoville

That is 6 games, so we win at least 2 of them to get to 10-6. If we lose to Seattle or another road game and make 10-6, we'll have 3 wins against those teams. The first tiebreaker is head to head.

We would get into trouble on tiebreakers if we split with SD, then lose to Baltimore, Pittsburg, and Jacksonville. Any other scenario and I like our chances.

tk13
10-09-2006, 11:33 PM
I think we can beat San Diego and Denver at home... Rivers and Plummer in Arrowhead. Plus we get Seattle, Jax, and Baltimore at home. I think we can beat anyone at home, we're not dead yet.

cdcox
10-09-2006, 11:40 PM
I think we can beat San Diego and Denver at home... Rivers and Plummer in Arrowhead. Plus we get Seattle, Jax, and Baltimore at home. I think we can beat anyone at home, we're not dead yet.

If we could capture that Arrowhead majic and run the table at home (tall, tall order) I'd really like our chances. Most of the tough opponents are at home. Tough road games against Pitt and SD, the rest are winable. If we could run the table at home, 11-5 is doable.

Count Alex's Wins
10-09-2006, 11:45 PM
Run the table at home...that's eight wins.

Tack on road wins against the Raiders and Browns, maybe Miami?

11-5.

SNR
10-09-2006, 11:47 PM
We're gonna have to win 5 or 6 more home games plus some tough ones on the road. The ones at Pittsburg and San Diego will be tough, but we've got to win one of those.

L.A. Chieffan
10-09-2006, 11:50 PM
Run the table at home...that's eight wins.

Tack on road wins against the Raiders and Browns, maybe Miami?

11-5.

Wait a sec...how are we gonna run the table at home? We already lost to Cincy. Am I missing something here?

Count Alex's Wins
10-09-2006, 11:53 PM
Run the table from here on out is what I meant. That would make us 7-1, which would be 6 more wins.

I think we can beat anyone at Arrowhead with our new defense.

cdcox
10-10-2006, 12:01 AM
I think we can beat anyone at Arrowhead with our new defense.

I agree that we can, but don't think that we will. SD is far too balanced to shut down completely. Rivers will be making his first trip to Arrowhead, which helps, but he hasn't looked rattled once this year. I've seen no evidence that we will be able to mount a running attack against SD and their pass rush will not give us enough time to exploit their weak secondary. We'll need a couple breaks to win that one.

HolmeZz
10-10-2006, 12:57 AM
I think Cincy, Indy, and San Diego will separate themselves as the 3 best teams in the AFC.

tk13
10-10-2006, 01:06 AM
I think Cincy, Indy, and San Diego will separate themselves as the 3 best teams in the AFC.
Indy's going to have a real good shot at getting a bye, but they're not going anywhere in the playoffs unless things change. They aren't nearly as good last year. I've been able to watch them just about every week this season, and their defense has not been good, especially their run D. It's just horrible. They're allowing something like 167 yds/game on the ground.

Tennessee ran for over 200 yards Sunday, and I don't think anybody really noticed. Jacksonville gashed them too. They've got a back/back road series with Denver and New England coming up, that'll be the real test. Maroney could tear them a new one. To their credit though, they've been able to keep those rushing yards from turning into points.

Short Leash Hootie
10-10-2006, 01:08 AM
I see an Indianapolis/Chicago super bowl on the horizon.

Short Leash Hootie
10-10-2006, 01:08 AM
Indy's going to have a real good shot at getting a bye, but they're not going anywhere in the playoffs unless things change. They aren't nearly as good last year. I've been able to watch them just about every week this season, and their defense has not been good, especially their run D. It's just horrible. Tennessee ran for over 200 yards Sunday, and I don't think anybody really noticed. Jacksonville gashed them too. They've got a back/back road series with Denver and New England coming up, that'll be the real test. Maroney could tear them a new one. To their credit though, they've been able to keep those rushing yards from turning into points.
They're without Bob Sanders.

He makes a big difference.

tk13
10-10-2006, 01:15 AM
They're without Bob Sanders.

He makes a big difference.
I was going to point that out... but still, they allowed 186 rushing yards to the Giants with him in week 1. He'll help at the back end but their front 7 is still getting pushed around. They've lucked out with some conservative coaches letting them slide. Jacksonville and Tennessee both literally did whatever they wanted in both games, and Peyton came in and stole it at the end. If you watched the games, you would've never in a million years guessed the Colts were the 5-0 team. Jacksonville literally had the ball for 25 minutes in the first half against them, totally controlled the game, I don't know how they lost it.

I think teams like Denver, New England or San Diego will maul them. Things can always change, but right now I don't think they have any shot at winning it all, even at 5-0.

Count Alex's Wins
10-10-2006, 01:32 AM
No safety is going to help your run defense if there are giant holes to run through.

Short Leash Hootie
10-10-2006, 01:44 AM
No safety is going to help your run defense if there are giant holes to run through.
you'd think, but Sanders makes a lot of tackles behind the line of scrimmage...

He is definitely an impact to the run defense in Indianapolis.

Short Leash Hootie
10-10-2006, 01:45 AM
Oh yeah, that Jags game...the Jags totally controlled the entire game. It was sick to see Indy come out with the win. Del Rio made some poor decisions in terms of when to punt, when to kick, etc...

tk13
10-10-2006, 01:51 AM
To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if they were 5-3 at the halfway point. They have the bye this week, then they play Washington, then at Denver and New England. Al Saunders usually tore the Colts up, that should at least be a shootout. Denver and New England will be tough games anyway, especially on the road. The next three games will probably determine whether everyone calls them overrated or the team to beat.

Short Leash Hootie
10-10-2006, 01:54 AM
I think Peyton Manning is really good. I've said that time and time again. I think it's only a matter of time before he wins a super bowl.

I think they'll be 7-1...I know New England broke out and KILLED cincinatti, but I still don't think they are THAT great.

They always manhandle Denver...and I think they can easily beat Washington.

I think they'll be 8-0, personally. I know they've had a few slip-ups the last few weeks, but I think the Colts are very good.

Phobia
10-10-2006, 02:03 AM
I'm sticking with my San Diego prediction.

tk13
10-10-2006, 02:06 AM
I'm sticking with my San Diego prediction.
Did Marty send you a care package or something?

Short Leash Hootie
10-10-2006, 02:15 AM
I still think KC can win the west if Trent comes back against Seattle, or the week after Seattle and we're 3-3 or 3-4...I really do. I don't care if you think I'm a homer because of it.