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'Hamas' Jenkins
10-31-2006, 04:44 PM
As I figured, the Yankees are going after Suppan. He served us well and got a ring. I'd like him to succeed in NY, but I don't think he'll do well as a guy who pitches to contact behind a horrible defense, poor pitching coach and intemperent media. Just my opinion, though.

Seems like the Yankees are going to try and unload Gary "Flax" Sheffield. I'm trying to figure out who'd be stupid enough to take on a broken down OF with poor defense who's owed $13 million.

Soriano and Aramis Ramirez have already filed for FA. No surprises there.

Who do you want **your** team to go after this offseason??

Bill Parcells
10-31-2006, 05:37 PM
Suppan :clap: :D

The Bad Guy
10-31-2006, 05:45 PM
Suppan will definitely go to NY. His wife's family is from PA.

I want the Mets to get Zito. Soriano is a nice fantasy, but Zito is the guy the Mets have to get. With Rick Peterson, the NY limelight and the cash, he should be a Met.

Bill Parcells
10-31-2006, 06:15 PM
Suppan will definitely go to NY. His wife's family is from PA.

I want the Mets to get Zito. Soriano is a nice fantasy, but Zito is the guy the Mets have to get. With Rick Peterson, the NY limelight and the cash, he should be a Met.
You really want Zito??

I think he is way overrated..and never comes up big in big games..JMO..

WilliamTheIrish
10-31-2006, 06:36 PM
I've been debating wether to do a hot stove league thread. There are plenty of baseball types on the board and it will be a great place to condense all the issues of the game as we go forward.

First thing: New labor agreement. This didn't get much play as it hapened during the series and I haven't had a chance to read up on it.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2637615

WilliamTheIrish
10-31-2006, 06:55 PM
There is talk of eliminating the draft pick compensation for teams signing top tier FA's.

IMO, that total horseshit. It's still a league that greatly benefits the larger markets. If they want to snag the Johan Santana's of the world, they have to pay up in some way. (IMO)

Bill Parcells
10-31-2006, 06:59 PM
There is talk of eliminating the draft pick compensation for teams signing top tier FA's.

IMO, that total horseshit. It's still a league that greatly benefits the larger markets. If they want to snag the Johan Santana's of the world, they have to pay up in some way. (IMO)
Agreed..and I'm a Yankee fan

WilliamTheIrish
10-31-2006, 07:47 PM
I got a touch ahead of myself. Top tier FA's will still recieve compensation. It will probably be reduced to a late round sandwich pick.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/sports/baseball/15827068.htm

======================================================

The new agreement will not have any major changes. Draft-choice compensation for lost free agents will be reduced but not completely eliminated. Teams losing a top-tier free agent will continue to receive compensation.

Bill Parcells
10-31-2006, 07:54 PM
JMO..But,baseball is being ruined by not having a salary cap and a commissioner(a real commissioner)

Every other major sport has one..it would put everybody on an almost even playing field..

The problem is baseball is being run by the owners/Selig..which makes the league an absolute joke..

chubychecker
10-31-2006, 08:15 PM
JMO..But,baseball is being ruined by not having a salary cap and a commissioner(a real commissioner)

Every other major sport has one..it would put everybody on an almost even playing field..

The problem is baseball is being run by the owners/Selig..which makes the league an absolute joke..

I agree; it is getting a little better though. Tigers, Twins, A's, and Padres are all teams with acheivable payroll's that had a legit chance this year.

'Hamas' Jenkins
10-31-2006, 09:22 PM
William,

I know that you already addressed this to a smaller extent, but from what I've read, this is how it breaks down, IIRC

Tier A free agents will still receive compensation (Top 30 %)
Tier B free agents will be reduced to sandwich picks.
Tier C free agents now have no compensation

Per ESPN:

Rankings are used to decide whether players are Type A or B free agents, and what draft picks their former teams get as compensation if they sign elsewhere. The top 30 percent in each group get an A ranking, and the next 20 percent a B ranking.

Compensation from Type C players -- the group between 50 and 60 percent -- was eliminated in baseball's new labor contract. Clubs that sign Type B players won't give up any draft picks, but their former clubs will receive "sandwich" picks between rounds

South Dakotan
10-31-2006, 09:43 PM
Hamas

You're right. Suppan is a great story and a good guy but he's doomed if he goes to the Bronx Zoo.
The fans and media won't give him much room for error being a fourth starter type being paid #2 money.

South Dakotan
10-31-2006, 09:45 PM
Soriano and Aramis Ramirez have already filed for FA. No surprises there.

Considering he's still on the good side of 30, Aramis is my choice as the most attractive FA out there.

HolmeZz
10-31-2006, 09:47 PM
In a dream world, I'd like the Mets to get Matsuzaka or trade for Dontrelle Willis.

I don't mind Zito, but there are other guys I prefer more.

Miles
10-31-2006, 09:48 PM
Hamas

You're right. Suppan is a great story and a good guy but he's doomed if he goes to the Bronx Zoo.
The fans and media won't give him much room for error being a fourth starter type being paid #2 money.

A large contract is still back of the rotation for them. The Yanks score a bunch of runs and have good enough (not great) infield D. He doesn't seem to be that much of an emotional pitcher so there are worse fits there.

Ari Chi3fs
10-31-2006, 09:48 PM
excuse my ignorance, what does the reference "Hot Stove League" mean?

HolmeZz
10-31-2006, 09:50 PM
excuse my ignorance, what does the reference "Hot Stove League" mean?

Just a term to describe the off-season, whether it's free agency or trades that occur.

Miles
10-31-2006, 09:50 PM
Considering he's still on the good side of 30, Aramis is my choice as the most attractive FA out there.

Much less flash than Soriano but I tend to agree as far as position FA's go.

South Dakotan
10-31-2006, 09:52 PM
In a dream world, I'd like the Mets to get Matsuzaka or trade for Dontrelle Willis.

I don't mind Zito, but there are other guys I prefer more.

Zito is a $35 million dollar pitcher who is demanding twice that amount with Boras as his agent. The Mets would be better off getting Mike Pelfrey and Phil Humber ready for the bigs. If one of them make it, the Mets have a #2 talent making the league minimum.

Miles
10-31-2006, 09:54 PM
Zito is a $35 million dollar pitcher who is demanding twice that amount with Boras as his agent. The Mets would be better off getting Mike Pelfrey and Phil Humber ready for the bigs. If one of them make it, the Mets have a #2 talent making the league minimum.

On the FA market what he will get is not that unreasonable though. Especially for a proven lefty.

With a team like the Mets, that can afford the luxury, they might as well plug in Zito at #2 and use the young guys to fill out their rotation.

South Dakotan
10-31-2006, 09:57 PM
excuse my ignorance, what does the reference "Hot Stove League" mean?


Just a term to describe the off-season, whether it's free agency or trades that occur.


To expand on HolmeZz response, "Hot Stove" is a metaphor referring to baseball starved fans during the winter who think of a hot stove to remind them of the warmer months ahead.

Simplex3
10-31-2006, 09:58 PM
To expand on HolmeZz response, "Hot Stove" is a metaphor referring to baseball starved fans during the winter who think of a hot stove to remind them of the warmer months ahead.
Is it just me or is that dumb?

HolmeZz
10-31-2006, 09:59 PM
The Mets have a ton of young guys to fill out the back of their rotation: Maine, Perez, Pelfrey, Humber, or Heilman if they move him to the rotation. They've got to add a big gun though to solidify the rotation IMO.

I've been watching a lot of tape on Matsuzaka and I really like what I saw. Unfortunately I don't think they, or any other team, will be able to compete with the posting price the Yankees will throw out there. I love Dontrelle a lot too and think he'd be the perfect fit for us.

The Bad Guy
10-31-2006, 10:01 PM
Zito is a $35 million dollar pitcher who is demanding twice that amount with Boras as his agent. The Mets would be better off getting Mike Pelfrey and Phil Humber ready for the bigs. If one of them make it, the Mets have a #2 talent making the league minimum.

Nonsense.

Pelfrey or Humber aren't going to be #2 starters this year. The Mets still have to fill rotation spots. Pedro isn't back until June, Glavine is another year older, El Duque is a FA, Traschel should never see a Mets' uniform again. So where are all the pitchers going to come from?

Zito was fantastic when Rick Peterson was in Oakland. Fantastic.

Switching leagues will also help him out a ton.

HolmeZz
10-31-2006, 10:02 PM
I do think Zito will be very good in the national league. I don't think he'll be worth the contract he's looking for though, but sometimes that's the nature of the business.

The Bad Guy
10-31-2006, 10:02 PM
The Mets have a ton of young guys to fill out the back of their rotation: Maine, Perez, Pelfrey, Humber, or Heilman if they move him to the rotation. They've got to add a big gun though to solidify the rotation IMO.

I've been watching a lot of tape on Matsuzaka and I really like what I saw. Unfortunately I don't think they, or any other team, will be able to compete with the posting price the Yankees will throw out there. I love Dontrelle a lot too and think he'd be the perfect fit for us.

I'm a D-Train fan. But he would cost a ton in terms of compensation. He'll cost players and in a year or two big money.

Zito right now costs just money.

Their careers are pretty similar. Both have had stellar seasons and had some down time.

I think one way or another, in about a week or so, Omar will have his targets established and he will be on the hunt.

Miles
10-31-2006, 10:02 PM
Is it just me or is that dumb?

I think its a really damn old saying.

The Bad Guy
10-31-2006, 10:03 PM
I do think Zito will be very good in the national league. I don't think he'll be worth the contract he's looking for though, but sometimes that's the nature of the business.

There are few MLB players that are worth the contracts they receive.

I'd rather go with Zito over the import. I'm leery of two things. 1) the amount of innings he's tossed. 2) The posting price just to negotiate.

Would I be pissed if we landed him? Absolutely not.

I just don't know if it's worth shelling out a posting fee.

'Hamas' Jenkins
10-31-2006, 10:05 PM
I'm hoping that the Cardinals resign Weaver and Mulder (even though I'm not a Mulder fan) and at least make a competitive offer for Suppan:

My reasoning:

Weaver got his confidence under Duncan, Molina knows how to handle him, and he's a durable pitcher. I think he'd be a very effective #3 for us, and I'd like to see us sign him to a 3/21 deal.

Mulder can be had for cheap, b/c he is considered damaged goods right now. He also said that he wants to show the Cardinal fans "the real Mark Mulder", so it sounds like he wants to stay in StL. Being a local boy doesn't hurt either.

I'm ecstatic that we won't have to worry about Buerhle, and I don't want us going anywhere near Schmidt. I honestly think Zito would be a very very good NL pitcher, but we aren't the market he's looking for. He's a coastal guy.

We still have issues that need to be addressed in the corner outfield, and second base. EnKarnKion didn't go to the victory parade b/c he was unhappy with his playing time over the last 4 games. F*ck him and his worthless ass game. It would be nice if we could unload him to a team who needs a 15/75 guy, and I hope ownership would be willing to eat about $2 mil of his $5.5 mil salary. God, he was a horrible signing.

If we can keep Wilson to platoon against LHP, I'll be happy. Hopefully we can sign him to a reasonable deal. There's no need to spend more than 3 million on him, though.

Spezio is probably going to go, as he can command a starting gig somewhere else. I'd like to keep the guy, and I think he's a great teammate, but his asking price and playing demands will most likely be better met elsewhere.

Belliard, who knows? His D isn't bad, but he's an undisciplined hitter. He seems like a mini-Manny, which is funny, but it wouldn't kill me to see him go. I see us making a run at Mark Loretta to keep the ever present swinging door at 2B open.

General So will be gone, as we have a young kid named Skip Shumaker who can do all the things that he can for a rookie deal. Good bye, So.

Edmonds will be back, but most likely at a reduced rate, something in the 2/16 range. I'd like to see him retire a Cardinal.

So here is what we would be looking at next year

Rotation:

Carp
Weaver
Mulder
Reyes
Wainwright

If Izzy takes a while to return, Wainwright may stay in the pen for a while, or they may just have Looper close until May/June :Lin:

Furthermore, we may have to bring up Chris Narveson to fill in for the first 10 or so starts of the year in Mulder's spot as he rehabs. I don't really know. If not, we might want to think about signing a veteran Woody Williams type as the end of the rotation guy and then dealing him once Mulder is back and healthy (if he proves he can be).

Our everyday lineup would look like this:

1B Pujols
2B ????
SS Eckstein
3B Rolen
RF Duncan/Wilson
LF ????
CF Edmonds
C Molina

Bench Miles, Rodriguez, Shumaker.

We've got two bench spots to fill a 2B, and potentially one/both OF spots.

Should be a busy offseason.

Miles
10-31-2006, 10:06 PM
Zito was fantastic when Rick Peterson was in Oakland. Fantastic.

Switching leagues will also help him out a ton.

He has still been pretty damn good over the last two years as well. A lefty with his career numbers like that in the AL is pure gold in the NL.

HolmeZz
10-31-2006, 10:07 PM
The thing that makes me lean away from Zito and towards Matsuzaka and Willis is that the Mets don't need another crafty soft-tosser. That's basically what Glavine is and what Pedro has become. They need a guy who can dial it up when he has to.

The Bad Guy
10-31-2006, 10:09 PM
He has still been pretty damn good over the last two years as well. A lefty with his career numbers like that in the AL is pure gold in the NL.

Exactly.

Look at Arroyo. He was basically dogshit in the AL. Comes to the NL and has a great year.

Zito would easily do the same. He posted pretty good numbers for the AL (3.8 era).

I really don't care if he does cost 70 million - the Mets can afford it.

They can't get in the situation like last year with having to throw Steve Traschel in a Game 3.

Miles
10-31-2006, 10:10 PM
The thing that makes me lean away from Zito and towards Matsuzaka and Willis is that the Mets don't need another crafty soft-tosser. That's basically what Glavine is and what Pedro has become. They need a guy who can dial it up when he has to.

I wouldn't put Zito in the craft soft tosser category. He may not throw that hard but I definitly view him as a "stuff" pitcher with some sick movement and very unique curve.

The Bad Guy
10-31-2006, 10:11 PM
The thing that makes me lean away from Zito and towards Matsuzaka and Willis is that the Mets don't need another crafty soft-tosser. That's basically what Glavine is and what Pedro has become. They need a guy who can dial it up when he has to.

Perez, Maine, Humber and Pelfrey can dial it up.

Willis isn't exactly someone who dials it up either. His strikeout totals are very similar to Zito's and Zito pitches in a superior conference.

The Mets need proven, young arms.

They are rare, but Zito is one of them.

'Hamas' Jenkins
10-31-2006, 10:15 PM
Willis' fastball tops out in the low 90's. He's not Roy Oswalt by any means. The only premier power pitcher on the market who is a proven commodity is Jason Schmidt, and I am somewhat skeptical about him, but that's just me. If you want someone who can blow someone away as a front of the line starter, that's who you should go after.

If I were a Mets fan, I'd write off the rest of Pedro's contract as a loss, and fortunately you can do so financially. I'm not saying cut the guy, I just think that you have no idea what you can get out of him at this point.

Miles
10-31-2006, 10:17 PM
Perez, Maine, Humber and Pelfrey can dial it up.

Willis isn't exactly someone who dials it up either. His strikeout totals are very similar to Zito's and Zito pitches in a superior conference.

The Mets need proven, young arms.

They are rare, but Zito is one of them.

When you team can afford to just go out and buy a top of the rotation starter, if not ace, its hard to argue against it. I really like Willis but getting him would at least cost them one of the young starters which are key to offsetting the cost of front of the rotation vets.

Miles
10-31-2006, 10:27 PM
I'm hoping that the Cardinals resign Weaver and Mulder (even though I'm not a Mulder fan) and at least make a competitive offer for Suppan:

My reasoning:

Weaver got his confidence under Duncan, Molina knows how to handle him, and he's a durable pitcher. I think he'd be a very effective #3 for us, and I'd like to see us sign him to a 3/21 deal.

Mulder can be had for cheap, b/c he is considered damaged goods right now. He also said that he wants to show the Cardinal fans "the real Mark Mulder", so it sounds like he wants to stay in StL. Being a local boy doesn't hurt either.


Yep Weaver and Mulder are the ones I want back as well. Mulder may not be the pitcher everyone was hoping but if he looks healthy would be worth a modest contract. Maybe a multi-year that gives him time to recover or just a one year like Morris got a while back.

Hopefully Weaver may not be that tough to get back. As much as people bitch about Boras the Cards seem to have a solid working relationship with him. STL really does seem to be the right fit for Weaver after him crashing so hard with some other teams.

'Hamas' Jenkins
10-31-2006, 10:46 PM
Yep Weaver and Mulder are the ones I want back as well. Mulder may not be the pitcher everyone was hoping but if he looks healthy would be worth a modest contract. Maybe a multi-year that gives him time to recover or just a one year like Morris got a while back.

Hopefully Weaver may not be that tough to get back. As much as people bitch about Boras the Cards seem to have a solid working relationship with him. STL really does seem to be the right fit for Weaver after him crashing so hard with some other teams.

I've heard people speculate about Duncan And Reyes packaged together for Carl Crawford. Personally, I think that's giving up too much pitching, and I think Reyes and Wainwright should be considered untouchable. Reyes has guts, and you can't teach that. The Rays need a power bat at 1B that Duncan can definitely give them. I'd like to see us package Duncan and Encarnacion (eating a good deal of his contract) for Crawford. Losing Juan is addition by subtraction, and we don't really have a spot for Baby Dunc. Carl Crawford would be a huge addition in the OF and could assume the role in center when Jimmy retires.

Miles
10-31-2006, 10:54 PM
I've heard people speculate about Duncan And Reyes packaged together for Carl Crawford. Personally, I think that's giving up too much pitching, and I think Reyes and Wainwright should be considered untouchable. Reyes has guts, and you can't teach that. The Rays need a power bat at 1B that Duncan can definitely give them. I'd like to see us package Duncan and Encarnacion (eating a good deal of his contract) for Crawford. Losing Juan is addition by subtraction, and we don't really have a spot for Baby Dunc. Carl Crawford would be a huge addition in the OF and could assume the role in center when Jimmy retires.

Reyes and Duncan is maybe a bit much for my taste but not far off in terms of value and they don't seem to be the easiest to deal with. Any idea how Crawford is siting with regards to his arbitration years? Can't really see the Rays wanting Juan since they tend to like younger talent but you never know.

Also wonder if the Series win might help things with Edmunds being back next year? I have haven't really followed things since the Series much but I was thinking he had a fairly large option that made it a bit tough to keep him under contract for another year.

DJ's left nut
10-31-2006, 11:11 PM
Let Soup walk. He was just classified as a class A free agent today. Let the Yankees overpay for him, we'll take the 1st rounder. They'll get a guy that is exceedingly average and caught fire at the right time. I like Suppan a lot, but he's the definition of a #3 starter, not a $10 million/season guy.

I'd go hard after Ted Lilly and Adam Eaton. I'd make a run for Lugo at 2b and leave AW as the closer. Pick up Edmonds' option, make a run at Vernon Wells in 2008. Do whatever it takes to rid us of Guano, Encarnacion just has no place on this club and after snubbing the team during the WS celebration, b'bye. He'd better be careful though, the Cards have gotten quite good at trading guys to baseball hell holes (Weeno Martinez to Tampa, Burger King to Colorado). We'll ship that schmuck to Pittsburgh or Kansas City so fast it will make his head spin.

Carp
Lilly
Weaver
Eaton
Reyes

Pretty good rotation. If Mulder would come back with a Matt Morris in 2005 kind of deal, I'd consider him as well. However, I was at game 6 of the 2005 NLCS when that panzy completely spit the bit and closed down Busch II, so I have an irrational hatred of him. He has the intestinal fortitude of a 12 year old girl...or Jake Plummer. Another option is Gil Meche, he finally has his power stuff back and would be a good complement to the rest of the rotation.

Eck
Lugo
Pujols
Edmonds
Rolen
Duncan
warm body to replace Guano
Molina
P

I wonder if that's enough of a talent influx. Yes, they won the WS, but this team only won 83 games. The national media has suddenly gone crazy saying that this team is far better than their regular season record. I live in Columbia, where the Cards are on FSMW. I watched probably 100+ Cardinals games this year, trust me, they were no better than the 83 win team they ended up. That club was full of holes. That lineup I posted looks to be short 1 quality bat. Duncan is probably better in RF, so if you get rid of Guano and slide Duncan over to RF, that leaves LF. Soriano would be a great fit in the 6 hole on the Cards, but he's going to be waaaay overpriced.

Seeing as how I'm not being paid to make these decisions, I'll put my trust in Jocketty to get us that bat, his gambles have come up aces more often than not.

Duncan/Guano for Crawford? Sorry to be a douche, but that's laughable. Crawford is a franchise player for most teams in baseball. Duncan is a 1-dimensional slugger that was seriously exposed in post-season play. Guano just sucks at everything.

Zito's fastball tops out around 88 anymore, he's a shoulder surgery waiting to happen. There's not a high end pitcher on the market worth going after this year, take a chance on some upside guys, preferably ones that pitched in the AL last year (inflated ERAs = lower contract demands).

'Hamas' Jenkins
10-31-2006, 11:13 PM
Edmonds' is guaranteed a 3 million option. His salary is 10 million including that 3, so the cost of keeping him is only 7. He will definitely be around. As far as Crawford goes, I'm not sure. He made 2.6 last year, and I heard that he's going to get 7-8 next year (whether through an arbritration bump or his salary, I'm not really sure).

DJ's left nut
10-31-2006, 11:15 PM
Crawford signed a 5 year extension last season, if he gets that big of a raise, it's because of his new contract.

There's a webblog (Cotts) that does a great job of posting contract information, I'd imagine his K is on there.


EDIT: Crawford will make $4 million next season.

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/tampa-bay-devil-rays_112131227267025321.html

At that price, they aren't dealing him.

Don't be surprised to see Guano traded to the Chisox for Buerhle.

Miles
10-31-2006, 11:19 PM
Edmonds' is guaranteed a 3 million option. His salary is 10 million including that 3, so the cost of keeping him is only 7. He will definitely be around. As far as Crawford goes, I'm not sure. He made 2.6 last year, and I heard that he's going to get 7-8 next year (whether through an arbritration bump or his salary, I'm not really sure).

Nice to know that about Edmunds. I was thinking he would be owed around 13M if we exercised the option and he would be a for sure FA.

Sounds like Crawford is entering his first arbitration year then. He is a great combo of speed, power and solid D but the price will be high.

Mecca
10-31-2006, 11:21 PM
Man the Cardinals got hosed on that Mulder trade......I hope everyone has learned by now when you trade with the A's you get hosed.

DJ's left nut
10-31-2006, 11:21 PM
Edmunds

Edmonds

Sorry, pet peave

And Crawford is not arbitration eligible. His new K bypassed his arby seasons.

Mecca
10-31-2006, 11:23 PM
The Devil Rays are going to have to move someone.........Delmon Young's ready.......BJ Uptons future is probably in the OF. They have way to many outfielders.

Miles
10-31-2006, 11:24 PM
Edmonds

Sorry, pet peave


Go away Greg Maddox.

'Hamas' Jenkins
10-31-2006, 11:24 PM
Let Soup walk. He was just classified as a class A free agent today. Let the Yankees overpay for him, we'll take the 1st rounder. They'll get a guy that is exceedingly average and caught fire at the right time. I like Suppan a lot, but he's the definition of a #3 starter, not a $10 million/season guy.

I'd go hard after Ted Lilly and Adam Eaton. I'd make a run for Lugo at 2b and leave AW as the closer. Pick up Edmonds' option, make a run at Vernon Wells in 2008. Do whatever it takes to rid us of Guano, Encarnacion just has no place on this club and after snubbing the team during the WS celebration, b'bye. He'd better be careful though, the Cards have gotten quite good at trading guys to baseball hell holes (Weeno Martinez to Tampa, Burger King to Colorado). We'll ship that schmuck to Pittsburgh or Kansas City so fast it will make his head spin.

Carp
Lilly
Weaver
Eaton
Reyes

Pretty good rotation. If Mulder would come back with a Matt Morris in 2005 kind of deal, I'd consider him as well. However, I was at game 6 of the 2005 NLCS when that panzy completely spit the bit and closed down Busch II, so I have an irrational hatred of him. He has the intestinal fortitude of a 12 year old girl...or Jake Plummer. Another option is Gil Meche, he finally has his power stuff back and would be a good complement to the rest of the rotation.

Eck
Lugo
Pujols
Edmonds
Rolen
Duncan
warm body to replace Guano
Molina
P

I wonder if that's enough of a talent influx. Yes, they won the WS, but this team only won 83 games. The national media has suddenly gone crazy saying that this team is far better than their regular season record. I live in Columbia, where the Cards are on FSMW. I watched probably 100+ Cardinals games this year, trust me, they were no better than the 83 win team they ended up. That club was full of holes. That lineup I posted looks to be short 1 quality bat. Duncan is probably better in RF, so if you get rid of Guano and slide Duncan over to RF, that leaves LF. Soriano would be a great fit in the 6 hole on the Cards, but he's going to be waaaay overpriced.

Seeing as how I'm not being paid to make these decisions, I'll put my trust in Jocketty to get us that bat, his gambles have come up aces more often than not.

Duncan/Guano for Crawford? Sorry to be a douche, but that's laughable. Crawford is a franchise player for most teams in baseball. Duncan is a 1-dimensional slugger that was seriously exposed in post-season play. Guano just sucks at everything.

Zito's fastball tops out around 88 anymore, he's a shoulder surgery waiting to happen. There's not a high end pitcher on the market worth going after this year, take a chance on some upside guys, preferably ones that pitched in the AL last year (inflated ERAs = lower contract demands).


Zito has never had a plus-plus fastball. It's always been between 85-90.

Soriano would bad 2 or 4 for us, but there is no way we'd get him (and I'm terrified of his defense). Duncan is a legitimate left handed bat, and had identical numbers to Ryan Howard's last year. I'm not saying he's Ryan Howard, but the kid has 30-35 HR ability, year in, year out. The Rays need a first baseman, and have a lot of outfielders coming up who will be much, much cheaper than Crawford. Encarnacion reeks of a Pitt, Tampa, Colorado unload. He won't be on this team next year.

I highly, highly doubt the Cardinals go after Lugo, especially given his checkered personal history. They are definitely a team that values character over ability and a guy who beats the piss out of his wife isn't going to be very welcome in that clubhouse.

Mulder will get a deal similar to what we gave Morris in '05, and if he responds, I imagine we'll lock him up for a while, however, at some point we need to lock up Carp long term (he has a 2008 option).

I was at game 6 as well, and I was furious at Mulder, but even Carpenter wasn't going to win that game. We just got blown away. with that being said, he definitely didn't gut it out in the second when he needed to, and that would have given our team a huge boost.

170 Innings of Adam Wainwright's good stuff is more valuable than 90 innings of his great stuff. JMO.

Carp, Weaver, Wainwright, Reyes, and Mulder with a spot starter yet to be determined would be the prudent course, IMO.

I see our bullpen being much improved due to the absence of Marquis and a reduced workload on the lefties. Getting Rincon back will help.

The team that won the WS was a 90 win team, IMO. Pujols wasn't the same after his oblique injury and Rolen fell apart in Sept and Edmonds was a walking mash unit.

Only Pujols, Rolen, and Enc played more than 130 games, IIRC.

DJ's left nut
10-31-2006, 11:29 PM
The Devil Rays are going to have to move someone.........Delmon Young's ready.......BJ Uptons future is probably in the OF. They have way to many outfielders.

Upton will end up at 3b, Baldelli likely at 1b.

Crawford, Gomez, Young in the OF

Baldelli, Cantu, ? Upton on the IF

They could also slide Young to DH and keep Baldelli in the OF.

Joel Guzman is a very good 3b prospect, if he can prove himself in the next couple of years, he'll probably go to 3rd and bump Upton to DH or even the OF, but that would still just put Gomez at DH.

They don't have to deal anyone.

Miles
10-31-2006, 11:30 PM
They don't have to deal anyone.

Yeah I don't think they have to at all and for sure not for the right price.

'Hamas' Jenkins
10-31-2006, 11:30 PM
Honestly, I'd like to see us make an offer to Shannon Stewart to fill one of the corner OF spots. He's coming off an injury and could probably be had for next to nothing.

Miles
10-31-2006, 11:33 PM
Honestly, I'd like to see us make an offer to Shannon Stewart to fill one of the corner OF spots. He's coming off an injury and could probably be had for next to nothing.

Might be a very nice option if his price is right coming off injury.

'Hamas' Jenkins
10-31-2006, 11:34 PM
Might be a very nice option if his price is right coming off injury.

That's also a Walt Jocketty move.

DJ's left nut
10-31-2006, 11:35 PM
170 Innings of Adam Wainwright's good stuff is more valuable than 90 innings of his great stuff. JMO.


Disagree. You have to factor in financial considerations.

Looper's awful, period. We can't have him closing until Izzy is healthy (projected to be around the AS break).

So, do we pay $6 million for a borowski or his ilk to close until Izzy is back?

Wainwright is probably only a 6 inning starter with about a 4.00 ERA. That kind of starter costs you $5 million on the open market.

Wainwright is a closer that saves 40 games with an ERA around 2. That guy costs you $8 million.

Also, BP did a study on what it would take for a good starter to be more valuable than an elite closer. The #s show that a starting pitcher needs to have an ERA .75 or less higher as a starter to be as valuable. In other words, if AW puts up a 2.50 ERA as a closer, he'd have to put up a 3.25 ERA as a starter (or better) to be as valuable from a wins gained/loss perspective.

Wainwright is my closer for the next 4 years, then you deal him and let Chris Perez take his job on the cheap.

Miles
10-31-2006, 11:36 PM
That's also a Walt Jocketty move.

Yep.

'Hamas' Jenkins
10-31-2006, 11:40 PM
Disagree. You have to factor in financial considerations.

Looper's awful, period. We can't have him closing until Izzy is healthy (projected to be around the AS break).

So, do we pay $6 million for a borowski or his ilk to close until Izzy is back?

Wainwright is probably only a 6 inning starter with about a 4.00 ERA. That kind of starter costs you $5 million on the open market.

Wainwright is a closer that saves 40 games with an ERA around 2. That guy costs you $8 million.

Also, BP did a study on what it would take for a good starter to be more valuable than an elite closer. The #s show that a starting pitcher needs to have an ERA .75 or less higher as a starter to be as valuable. In other words, if AW puts up a 2.50 ERA as a closer, he'd have to put up a 3.25 ERA as a starter (or better) to be as valuable from a wins gained/loss perspective.

Wainwright is my closer for the next 4 years, then you deal him and let Chris Perez take his job on the cheap.

I would agree with this, if not for the new CBA. The luxury tax ceiling got bumped way up, and FA's are going to get overpaid. That 6 inning starter of which you speak (Jeff Weaver) is going to command 7 million, not 5. Given the Cards lack of depth in the rotation (especially since Mulder is an unknown) you need Wainwright up front to help solidify the rotation. You can't have Chris Narveson and his unproven elbow shoulder the load if someone goes Ponson/Marquis or Mulder doesn't round into form.

Ari Chi3fs
10-31-2006, 11:41 PM
Wow, as long as I have been a fan of baseball, it amazes me that I have never heard the term Hot Stove League. I have watched Ken Burns series several times, and still have never heard it.

weird.

And to think, I thought I knew it all.

Miles
10-31-2006, 11:43 PM
Disagree. You have to factor in financial considerations.

Looper's awful, period. We can't have him closing until Izzy is healthy (projected to be around the AS break).

So, do we pay $6 million for a borowski or his ilk to close until Izzy is back?

Wainwright is probably only a 6 inning starter with about a 4.00 ERA. That kind of starter costs you $5 million on the open market.

Wainwright is a closer that saves 40 games with an ERA around 2. That guy costs you $8 million.

Also, BP did a study on what it would take for a good starter to be more valuable than an elite closer. The #s show that a starting pitcher needs to have an ERA .75 or less higher as a starter to be as valuable. In other words, if AW puts up a 2.50 ERA as a closer, he'd have to put up a 3.25 ERA as a starter (or better) to be as valuable from a wins gained/loss perspective.

Wainwright is my closer for the next 4 years, then you deal him and let Chris Perez take his job on the cheap.

Im a bit torn on Wainwright as a closer or starter since he is not a proven starter. A good starter with his kind of stuff is going to cost much more than 5M per year.

I don't buy that starter vs. closer analysis at all. So basically any very good closer is worth more than any of the top pitchers in the game?

DJ's left nut
10-31-2006, 11:45 PM
I don't think you can plan your offseason around him as a starter and Looper as your 1st half closer. You've just turned your bullpen from a strength to a weakness.

Wainwright is flexible, so why not take advantage of it? If one of our starters collapse, then we shift AW to the rotation and go with Looper until Izzy is healthy or we can find a viable replacement (Kinney?). If, however, we come up roses in the rotation, we have an absolutely nails bullpen. Why not start out with your most flexible arrangement (5 possible starters plus Wainwright in the wings) instead of one that negates AW's flexibility (4 starters + AW, with Looper as the closer).

It is easier to get a middle of the rotation starter than it is to get an elite closer. So why take a guy like Wainwright, who has the makeup and stuff of an elite closer, and make him a middle of the rotation starter?

DJ's left nut
10-31-2006, 11:49 PM
Im a bit torn on Wainwright as a closer or starter since he is not a proven starter. A good starter with his kind of stuff is going to cost much more than 5M per year.

I don't buy that starter vs. closer analysis at all. So basically any very good closer is worth more than any of the top pitchers in the game?

Adam's stuff as a starter is nowhere near his stuff as a reliever, his minor league track record bears that out. He also has a history of wearing down in the 2nd half of the season. He will not be nearly as effective in the starting rotation as he was in the bullpen, so you can't project his #s or his stuff into his role as a starter.

And I agree, the closer analysis is flawed. I think it is fairly accurate for the middle of the road guys (i.e. a closer with a 3.5 ERA is more valuable than a starter with a 4.25 ERA), but #1 starter is the most valuable asset in the game.

'Hamas' Jenkins
10-31-2006, 11:50 PM
I don't think you can plan your offseason around him as a starter and Looper as your 1st half closer. You've just turned your bullpen from a strength to a weakness.

Wainwright is flexible, so why not take advantage of it? If one of our starters collapse, then we shift AW to the rotation and go with Looper until Izzy is healthy or we can find a viable replacement (Kinney?). If, however, we come up roses in the rotation, we have an absolutely nails bullpen. Why not start out with your most flexible arrangement (5 possible starters plus Wainwright in the wings) instead of one that negates AW's flexibility (4 starters + AW, with Looper as the closer).

It is easier to get a middle of the rotation starter than it is to get an elite closer. So why take a guy like Wainwright, who has the makeup and stuff of an elite closer, and make him a middle of the rotation starter?

You seem to forget that we are going to be getting Rincon back.

Thompson and Hancock are going to be the inning eaters, and Kinney, Flores, Tyler Johnson, and Rincon will be the late inning match up guys.
I don't like Looper either, but he's passable as a closer. He's as good as anyone else in the division at this point, as Lidge is a total headcase, Cincinatti is a revolving door, Cordero is unknown, the Cubs have nothing nor do the Pirates.

You also need to remember that AW was groomed to be a starter this year, and only stepped in to his current role due to injury. Is he a good closer? Yeah, but he's definitely more valuable as a starter, especially to this team. I think a definitive role for AW will only help him in his confidence and durability.

'Hamas' Jenkins
10-31-2006, 11:51 PM
Adam's stuff as a starter is nowhere near his stuff as a reliever, his minor league track record bears that out. He also has a history of wearing down in the 2nd half of the season. He will not be nearly as effective in the starting rotation as he was in the bullpen, so you can't project his #s or his stuff into his role as a starter.

And I agree, the closer analysis is flawed. I think it is fairly accurate for the middle of the road guys (i.e. a closer with a 3.5 ERA is more valuable than a starter with a 4.25 ERA), but #1 starter is the most valuable asset in the game.

Wainwright was injured when he started in Memphis. A look at that info needs to be buttressed w/ that info. His struggles can be attributed to that. He also had a year to build up his arm strength to get ready for starting at the major league level. I'm not worried about him breaking down at this point. If we can keep him around 160 IP, he'll be fine.

DJ's left nut
10-31-2006, 11:56 PM
Marginal cost, Wainwright is not more valuable as a starter. In a vacuum, maybe. But we're not operating in a vacuum. We can more easily replace AW's contributions as a starter than we could his contributions as a reliever this offseason.

I didn't forget about Rincon, I ignored him. He's a LOOGY only. Righties crush him. He'll get you 1-2 outs an appearance (the modern day Tony Fossas). At that, the guy is nearly 40 and coming off major arm surgery, he may well suck. Of your 'late inning matchup guys' only 1 of them is RH, we need Looper in that setup role. Looper is good as a setup man, that's all. We saw what happened to Looper in a pressure situation in game 4, he damn near blew that game. He was also pretty lousy in the closer role in NY. Some guys just don't have the mentality to be a closer, he's one of them.

EDIT: Wainwright wasn't 'injured' at memphis, he was fatigued. There were never any surgeries, never any diagnosis. He just kept getting a tired arm. His mechanics would go south and he'd get lit up.

As for his endurance, if anything it took a step back this season. He was used only for short stints and, until August, was rarely used on consecutive nights or even twice in 3 days. His handling was designed around preservation rather than preparation.

'Hamas' Jenkins
11-01-2006, 12:00 AM
I agree that Looper doesn't have a pennant race closer mentality...but it's not the same when you are closing games in May, and he can get us by there, and allow us to fill holes in our everyday lineup. I also think that we can get some guy to fill in another RHRP role for next to nothing.

'Hamas' Jenkins
11-01-2006, 12:03 AM
Here's an interesting photo:

'Hamas' Jenkins
11-01-2006, 12:07 AM
BTW, here are Carp's numbers on 5 days rest this year, which I think should be considered when deciding whether to strengthen the rotation or solidify the pen

date inn H BB R K ERA WHIP W-L
4/14 8.00 4 3 1 6 1.13 0.875 L
6/13 7.00 3 3 0 13 0.00 0.857 W
7/25 7.33 7 3 0 4 0.00 1.364 W
8/15 9.00 4 6 0 6 0.00 1.111 W
8/26 8.00 2 1 1 5 1.13 0.375 ND
9/1 9.00 3 0 1 8 1.00 0.333 W
10/3 6.33 5 1 1 7 1.42 0.947 W
10/26 8.00 3 0 0 6 0.00 0.375 W
ave 7.83 3.9 2.1 0.5 6.9 0.600 0.780 6-1

Miles
11-01-2006, 12:15 AM
I have always been a big believer of starting the best guys you have and the pen can work itself out. Sure there are exceptions with dominate RPs but solid RPs are not nearly as hard to find as starters.

Over the past years the Cards and Jocketty have done a great job of filling out the pen with decent enough arms.

HolmeZz
11-01-2006, 12:59 AM
Upton will end up at 3b, Baldelli likely at 1b.

Crawford, Gomez, Young in the OF

Baldelli, Cantu, ? Upton on the IF

They could also slide Young to DH and keep Baldelli in the OF.

Joel Guzman is a very good 3b prospect, if he can prove himself in the next couple of years, he'll probably go to 3rd and bump Upton to DH or even the OF, but that would still just put Gomez at DH.

They don't have to deal anyone.

The Devil Rays have Evan Longoria for 3B in the future too.

They also have Elijah Dukes, an outfielder, who may actually be their most talented prospect. They're chock full of talent everywhere except with pitching really.

The Bad Guy
11-01-2006, 05:10 AM
Here's an interesting photo:

That's Buherle isn't it?

'Hamas' Jenkins
11-01-2006, 06:13 AM
That's Buherle isn't it?

Yeah. In a Cardinal cap at game 3 of the series. :hmmm:

BigRedChief
11-01-2006, 06:39 AM
FORECAST FOR 2007(from stlcardinals.com)
Lineup: Most of the core will be back. Pujols and Rolen anchor the corners of the infield and the heart of the order. Leadoff man David Eckstein is back for one more year, Encarnacion returns in right and Yadier Molina will handle the pitchers and throw out would-be basestealers. Questions linger in center field, where the club holds an option on Jim Edmonds, left field, where Chris Duncan may or may not be a long-term answer, and second base, where Ronnie Belliard's value is uncertain. Somewhere or other, this is an offense that could use one significant upgrade.

Rotation: Carpenter is signed, Anthony Reyes is under the team's control, and then ... who knows? Every other starter -- Weaver, Jeff Suppan, Mark Mulder and Jason Marquis -- is a free agent. The Cardinals would like to find a way to bring back Weaver or Suppan, but paying for both seems unlikely. Mulder might be forced to take a one-year, make-good deal after shoulder surgery. Marquis is the most likely to be gone. Wainwright may factor in this equation, as well, or he may be in the ....

Bullpen: Isringhausen's status determines a lot. If the Cardinals are convinced that he will not only be healthy but effective, that likely bumps Wainwright into the starting five. Most of the rest of the relief corps should be back, including two rookies who emerged as huge assets in Tyler Johnson and Josh Kinney. Braden Looper, Josh Hancock, Randy Flores and Brad Thompson are all either signed or under the team's control for '07.

Biggest need: The starting rotation must be restocked. It's that simple. Whether everyone is brought back, or the Cards go shopping in free agency, the starting five has to be priority one this winter. Prospect to watch: Left-hander Chris Narveson caught the organization's eye with a strong '06 at Triple-A Memphis. He'll likely get a chance to make the team this spring. Most of the more exciting talent in the organization, though, is a year or more away.