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View Full Version : What's the probability that Chiefs make the playoffs at 10-6?


chiefsfan1963
11-07-2006, 05:35 PM
If we don't win our division I can't see how we go to the playoffs with a 10-6 record. Is there a strong chance we will at 10-6? If we lose to Miami, Baltimore, and SD and beat Oak twice, cleveland, denver, and Jacksonville. Are we in? Thoughts?

JBucc
11-07-2006, 05:35 PM
81%

Basileus777
11-07-2006, 05:39 PM
Not unless there are no other 10-6 teams. We won't win many tie breakers because of our poor conference record.

DJ's left nut
11-07-2006, 05:49 PM
If one of those 10 wins is against JAX, I think we're in. First tiebreaker is head/head matchup. Right now JAX is playing good football behind Gerrard and will probably be neck and neck with us all year. Their schedule is tougher than it was last season, but they still have a couple of gimmies in Houston and Tennessee coming up.

Cincy is the only other team that I think could boot us out of the last WC spot. We could very easily see 3 AFC West teams in the playoffs.

Count Zarth
11-07-2006, 05:53 PM
The probability would be higher if we had DV and AS.

OnTheWarpath58
11-07-2006, 05:54 PM
I think (and hope) that 11-5 Sandy Eggo and 10-6 KC will be the wildcards. Assuming that Denver wins the division.

When it's all said and done, the WC's will/should come down to KC, SD, JAX and the Bungles.

Jacksonville is 5-3 and IMO will/should lose to the Giants, Indy, New England and KC. That puts them at 9-7.

Cincinnati is 4-4 and will/should lose to New Orleans, Baltimore, Indy and Denver. Could even lose one more, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt against SD this weekend until the Chargers beat a decent team on the road.

Jacksonville doesn't scare me as much, because we can beat them head to head and win a tiebreaker. If we can't beat them at home in December, we probably don't deserve to go anyway. Should the Bengals get hot, we could be screwed by the loss in the opener.

FAX
11-07-2006, 05:58 PM
Great question, Mr. chiefsfan1963.

Where is Mr. cdcox? This interrogatory can only be properly answered via titty graph.

FAX

KurtCobain
11-07-2006, 06:09 PM
...but we're gonna win the division...

Halfcan
11-07-2006, 06:10 PM
Why is everyone giving the Cheatin Donks the Division already?? We are only a game back with half the year in front of us.

OnTheWarpath58
11-07-2006, 06:16 PM
Why is everyone giving the Cheatin Donks the Division already?? We are only a game back with half the year in front of us.

Have you seen Denver's remaining schedule?

@OAK
SD
@KC
SEA
@SD
@ARI
CIN
SF

Unless they just implode, there's only two games they have any business losing, on the road vs. KC/SD.

Can't see them losing a home game.

Realistically 12-4, maybe 11-5.

DaFace
11-07-2006, 06:22 PM
Great question, Mr. chiefsfan1963.

Where is Mr. cdcox? This interrogatory can only be properly answered via titty graph.

FAX

I'm not cdcox, and this graphic doesn't have much to do with female anatomy, but this is what our record looks like according to his software:

http://img293.imageshack.us/img293/8259/playoffsde9.gif

So to answer the question, it looks like we'd have about an 80% chance of making the playoffs at 10-6.

Halfcan
11-07-2006, 06:34 PM
10-6 so you have us losing 3 more games? Which ones?

JohnnyV13
11-07-2006, 06:37 PM
Donx could lose to seattle because they should have alexander and hasselbeck back by that game

chiefsfan1963
11-07-2006, 06:42 PM
If we win this weekend against the Dolphins I will feel we have a great shot at playing in January. Dolphins have a chip on their shoulders after beating the Bears they want to prove they are playoff team not going to the playoffs. We should beat Oak twice, cleveland, jacksonville, and either Denver or Ravens. That makes for a 11-5 record. Winning this weekend will put us in the driver's seat.

KChiefs1
11-07-2006, 06:51 PM
I'd say between 95%-100%

cdcox
11-07-2006, 07:03 PM
10-6 so you have us losing 3 more games? Which ones?

The software considers 5000 different versions of the 2006 season. About 28% (or 1400) of those seasons have us finishing 10-6. We lose to different teams in those 1400 season, but there are probably some repeats. Meanwhile, our primary playoff competitors are compiling different records, losing to different teams in each of those 1400 seasons. The net out come is that if we finish 10-6, we have about an 80% chance of making the playoffs, as DaFace indicated.

If you want to consider what happens if you lose specific games, you can do that too. For example if we lose to Denver, San Diego and Jacksonville and win our remainging games our playoff odds are only 42%. But if our losses came against Miami, Cleveland and Baltimore, our odds go up to 91%.

You can basically consider any scenario that you want, because my software is awesome.

jspchief
11-07-2006, 07:04 PM
A ten win team misses the play-offs about once every four years on average. It's pretty uncommon for 10 wins to not get you in. And it happened to us last year.

Based on averages, 10 wins gets us in this year.

DaFace
11-07-2006, 07:06 PM
You can basically consider any scenario that you want, because my software is awesome.

I actually have to agree. I'm home sick today, so I've been running "what ifs" with your software like crazy today. Very cool.

cdcox
11-07-2006, 07:17 PM
I'm kind of worried about the 10-6 chances, because I think Denver and SD will both finish 11-5 or better. That leaves one playoff spot and Jacksonville has good chances of beating Houston, Buffalo, Miami, and Tennessee. That gets them to 9 wins. Then, if they beat KC OR win 2 out of Giants, Indy or NE, they would knock out a 10-6 KC team.

Cincinnatti would also keep us out if both teams finish 10-6, but I don't see them winning 6 out of 9 against: SD, NO, Cleveland, Baltimore, Oakland, Indy, Denver, and Pittsburgh.

Rain Man
11-07-2006, 07:21 PM
I actually have to agree. I'm home sick today, so I've been running "what ifs" with your software like crazy today. Very cool.

You're sick? How often do you get sick? Will that interfere with your ability to hold a job in the future?

cdcox
11-07-2006, 07:24 PM
You're sick? How often do you get sick? Will that interfere with your ability to hold a job in the future?

He's just proved he can do detailed statistical analysis at home while he's sick, what more could you want?

DaFace
11-07-2006, 07:28 PM
You're sick? How often do you get sick? Will that interfere with your ability to hold a job in the future?

I don't get sick very often. And if I did, I'd use my excellent computer skills to set up remote access so that I could work from home. LMAO

Mr. Laz
11-07-2006, 07:31 PM
if they don't beat the chargers in san diego i think there is a very good chance they could go 10-6 and NOT make the playoffs again this year.

Reerun_KC
11-07-2006, 07:32 PM
Good luck in the AFC getting in with a 10-6 record...

If this was the NFC you would be the #1 Seed.

I dont think we will get in at 10-6, unless there is a miracle somewhere along the season.

Lets go 11-5 and then hopefully we dont have to worry about it.

alanm
11-07-2006, 07:44 PM
Good luck in the AFC getting in with a 10-6 record...

If this was the NFC you would be the #1 Seed.

I dont think we will get in at 10-6, unless there is a miracle somewhere along the season.

Lets go 11-5 and then hopefully we dont have to worry about it.
I'd rather everyone focus their energy towards beating Miami Sunday.

ChiefsCountry
11-07-2006, 08:25 PM
Two straight years and not making it at 10-6 would be almost a fluke. That saying I dont see the Chiefs losing anymore than two games ther rest of the way. We won't lose at Arrowhead, and the road is not very hard.

Simply Red
11-07-2006, 09:02 PM
I'd say between 95%-100%


Pesty San Diego may prevent that I'm sad to say. I hope I'm wrong though...

Halfcan
11-07-2006, 09:04 PM
The software considers 5000 different versions of the 2006 season. About 28% (or 1400) of those seasons have us finishing 10-6. We lose to different teams in those 1400 season, but there are probably some repeats. Meanwhile, our primary playoff competitors are compiling different records, losing to different teams in each of those 1400 seasons. The net out come is that if we finish 10-6, we have about an 80% chance of making the playoffs, as DaFace indicated.

If you want to consider what happens if you lose specific games, you can do that too. For example if we lose to Denver, San Diego and Jacksonville and win our remainging games our playoff odds are only 42%. But if our losses came against Miami, Cleveland and Baltimore, our odds go up to 91%.

You can basically consider any scenario that you want, because my software is awesome.

That is pretty cool-and if we don't lose any games?? What are the chances of a SB?

Thig Lyfe
11-07-2006, 09:10 PM
...but we're gonna win the division...

Yeah!

tk13
11-07-2006, 09:16 PM
I think 10-6 is a very feasible record. I think we can do better, but I'm very confident of this teams ability to go 10-6 or better. That would be pretty cruddy if we won 10 games again and didn't get in.

Halfcan
11-07-2006, 09:38 PM
Chiefs at Miami

Miami is going to be a lot tougher than we might have thought. The team we stomped on 4 days rest last year is pumped up from a HUGE win in Chicago. I have faith in our running game to get it done and I also have faith in Joey to give us a few extra chances. Chiefs win 35 to 13

HMc
11-07-2006, 09:40 PM
one question homercan what score were you predicting <b>before</b> miami embarrased the bears?

hypersensitiveZO6
11-07-2006, 09:42 PM
At 5-3, wasn't it something like 65%?

Halfcan
11-07-2006, 09:43 PM
Oakland at KC

The faders will play us tough on defense for the first half, but their Offense gives us WAY to many chances as KC get a Surtain INT. We also get 4 sacks that produce a fumble that gives us the ball inside their own 20. Chiefs fans start celebrating midway throught the 3rd quarter as KC comes out at halftime and put the game away with a 76 yard drive that chews nearly 7 minutes off the clock. Faders get two meaningless FG's to avoid the shutout. KC 42 Faders 6

Count Zarth
11-07-2006, 09:43 PM
Oakland at KC

The faders will play us tough on defense for the first half, but their Offense gives us WAY to many chances as KC get a Surtain INT. We also get 4 sacks that produce a fumble that gives us the ball inside their own 20. Chiefs fans start celebrating midway throught the 3rd quarter as KC comes out at halftime and put the game away with a 76 yard drive that chews nearly 7 minutes off the clock. Faders get two meaningless FG's to avoid the shutout. KC 42 Faders 6

Don't forget drunk GoChiefs streaks the field.

Halfcan
11-07-2006, 09:44 PM
one question homercan what score were you predicting <b>before</b> miami embarrased the bears?


38 to 10 Chiefs. Rex Grossman is not our QB Damon is. Bears handed them that win with all the stoopid turnovers.

Halfcan
11-07-2006, 09:53 PM
Thanksgiving Showdown

The Cheatin Donks VS KC

Those expecting another defensive showdown are disapointed in the first half, as the low-down Donks take the early lead with an effecient drive including a big catch by Javon Walker in which TY trips on his shadow. We respond with a 48 FG by Tynes. With our defense getting fooled on Bootlegs and misdirection end arounds- we go into the half down 21 to 13. But Trent saves his best game of his career and the Chiefs control the clock for most of the second half. Tony G gouges them for huge yardage and Sammy Parker attoins for two early drops by scoring on a long TD toss. The defense has one more mental lapse on a big running play but then makes a couple of big stands and creates a sack/fumble that gives Tynes his 3rd FG which is the game winner. Chiefs 30 Cheaten Donks 28

Halfcan
11-07-2006, 09:57 PM
Chiefs at the Browns

Fumbles and turnovers fill this sloppy game as rain makes the field wet and muddy. The battle of the TE's as it is dubbed turns into a side show for the LJ show. With passing limited with the terrible conditions, LJ takes the game on his shoulders. The choosen one gets only 4 meaningless catches as DJ and Knight shut him down. TG gets 6 catches and the only score through the air. Chiefs pull one out of the azzes in a game they probably should have lost. Chiefs 16 Brownies 13

Halfcan
11-07-2006, 10:03 PM
Ravens Vs. Chiefs

Arrowhead is rocking as this game has major Playoff implications. Chiefs Offense saves its best game so far with a thorough drubbing of the Highly Ranked Ravens Thug Defense. Baltimore never gets their running game going and subject their QB to a incredible pounding that produces 4 turnovers. KC gets major rep for the complete victory as they take over first place in the West. KC 45 Thugs 0

Halfcan
11-07-2006, 10:11 PM
The last three games are all winable-but are going to be pretty tough-wel two out of three will be.

SD has owned us out there lately, I think they have a pretty strong team-so this one is a toss up.

Faders-this is a WIN-as Oakland has long gave up on their season at this point.

Jaguars-This one could be for the Division and also a Bye week. Arrowhead is the deciding factor-I think we win.

alanm
11-07-2006, 10:12 PM
Don't forget drunk GoChiefs streaks the field.And Kwicka Mitchell clobbers him ala Mike Curtis.
ROFL

alanm
11-07-2006, 10:13 PM
Thanksgiving Showdown

The Cheatin Donks VS KC

Those expecting another defensive showdown are disapointed in the first half, as the low-down Donks take the early lead with an effecient drive including a big catch by Javon Walker in which TY trips on his shadow. We respond with a 48 FG by Tynes. With our defense getting fooled on Bootlegs and misdirection end arounds- we go into the half down 21 to 13. But Trent saves his best game of his career and the Chiefs control the clock for most of the second half. Tony G gouges them for huge yardage and Sammy Parker attoins for two early drops by scoring on a long TD toss. The defense has one more mental lapse on a big running play but then makes a couple of big stands and creates a sack/fumble that gives Tynes his 3rd FG which is the game winner. Chiefs 30 Cheaten Donks 28Don't forget Eddie Kennison makes Champ Bailey his bitch again. :thumb:

thurman merman
11-08-2006, 12:05 AM
[QUOTE=DJ's left nut] Right now JAX is playing good football behind Gerrard and will probably be neck and neck with us all year. Their schedule is tougher than it was last season, but they still have a couple of gimmies in Houston and Tennessee coming up.
QUOTE]

uh, didnt houston just kick the shit out of them a couple weeks ago?

bronco610
11-08-2006, 12:43 AM
If the Chiefs go 10 and 6 they are in. Looking forward to 3 teams from the AFCW in the playoffs.

Lzen
11-08-2006, 10:22 AM
A ten win team misses the play-offs about once every four years on average. It's pretty uncommon for 10 wins to not get you in. And it happened to us last year.

Based on averages, 10 wins gets us in this year.

Not sure where you get every 4 years. I thought last year was the first time in over a decade. In any case, I think it's a lot more likely now that there are 4 divisions per conference than it was just a few years ago when there were only 3 divisions. I've said it before but I think this bears repeating. They should reduce the divisions to 2 per conference. 2 division winners and 4 wildcards. It would reduce the likelihood of a weaker team getting in due to playing in an easy division, IMO.

cdcox
11-08-2006, 10:31 AM
They should reduce the divisions to 2 per conference. 2 division winners and 4 wildcards. It would reduce the likelihood of a weaker team getting in due to playing in an easy division, IMO.

You couldn't play every team in your division twice then, because that would be 14 games out of 16; not enough variety in opponents for my tastes.

I think the current system is about as good as it can get, with the exception that I would tweak the tiebreakers. Right now, they don't do a good job of selecting the better of the two teams.

Halfcan
11-08-2006, 10:35 AM
I won't be happy just getting a Wildcard-I want the Division and a Playoff game at home!!!!!

StcChief
11-08-2006, 11:54 AM
I won't be happy just getting a Wildcard-I want the Division and a Playoff game at home!!!!!

I'll settle for anything, play well at end of year get in hot....anything can
happen...

Ask the Cardinals.

chappy
11-08-2006, 12:05 PM
Well the Donks and the Bolts both have to play each other twice and we get to play the Radiers still twice.
We have a chance at the Division but our chances at a Wildcard are pretty solid the Bolts and the Jags are the ones we got to watch and the Jags remaining schedule isn't a walk in the park and the Bolts like i said earlier have to play the Donks twice

Halfcan
11-08-2006, 03:47 PM
I'll settle for anything, play well at end of year get in hot....anything can
happen...

Ask the Cardinals.

Yep, but it would be very nice to play at home for at least one of the games. :)

thedude
11-08-2006, 04:06 PM
Yep, but it would be very nice to play at home for at least one of the games. :)


As long as we dont have to play the colts, or the colts or the broncos.

GoHuge
11-08-2006, 04:08 PM
I think last year was the first time since 93' that a 10-6 team didn't make the playoffs. History says almost for sure, but our conference record says we better win out in conference play, or go 11-5 if we want to see the playoffs. All the other non-division leading teams that we'd be up against for the Wildcard have at least 3 conference wins. From here on out we have only AFC teams to play so who knows. Lets go 11-5 to be safe. Looking at all these stats makes me wish we would have joined the NFC West instead of the Seahawks. We'd have our playoff ticket punched each year right out the gate. That division is horrible and none of them look to be getting better anytime soon.

chiefsfan1963
11-08-2006, 09:35 PM
I think last year was the first time since 93' that a 10-6 team didn't make the playoffs. History says almost for sure, but our conference record says we better win out in conference play, or go 11-5 if we want to see the playoffs. All the other non-division leading teams that we'd be up against for the Wildcard have at least 3 conference wins. From here on out we have only AFC teams to play so who knows. Lets go 11-5 to be safe. Looking at all these stats makes me wish we would have joined the NFC West instead of the Seahawks. We'd have our playoff ticket punched each year right out the gate. That division is horrible and none of them look to be getting better anytime soon.

The only problem with this wish is we would be a crappy team from a crappy division.