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StcChief
11-18-2006, 11:32 AM
Take 2: Raiders vs. Chiefs
By Scouts, Inc.

Oakland at Kansas City Matchups
QB RB WR OL DL LB DB ST Coach Overall

Earlier this week, our scouts filed their advance scouting report on
This week's matchup between the Raiders and Chiefs. Now they're back with a second look.

* After suffering a severe concussion in Week 1, Kansas City QB Trent
Green is finally back starting for the Chiefs. Green took snaps with the first-unit offense on Wednesday and head coach Herm Edwards named him the starter. In talking with people in the organization, the coaching staff had been looking for a reason to replace Huard and evidently his play this past week in Miami was just the reason. This will be a defining moment in the first year of Edward's tenure with the Chiefs. If Green plays well, he is agenius.
If he struggles and they miss the playoffs, Chiefs fans will
Never let him forget it. One thing is for certain, we will find out quickly if Green is ready or not. While it makes some sense to start him against a poor Raiders football team, don't forget Oakland has a very good defense. Look for defensive coordinator Rob Ryan to throw a lot of different blitz packages at him early in an attempt to rattle his cage. Nobody really knows how Green will react after the serious concussion but you can bet the Raiders will try to find out early on.

* The Raiders have their own QB issues to worry about. Andrew Walter
who has been starting in place of injured Aaron Brooks (pectoral muscle), blasted the coaching staff this week for their game plans. He called them predictable and mentioned that he would like to see less seven-step drops, more shorter type passes and for them to be a little more creative in general. This did not sit well with head coach Art Shell and he now seems more willing to potentially go back to Brooks this week. Brooks has declared himself fit and wants to get back on the field. Brooks will be no less thenthe No. 2 QB this week so even if Walter gets the start, he could be on avery short leash.

* The Kansas City offensive line had been playing excellent up until
This past week's loss in Miami. Their plays this past week was no fault of their own. The Chiefs finally got their offense clicking and then the offensive line was hit with injury. LOG Brian Waters will miss another game this week with an MCL injury. ROT Kevin Sampson will also miss his third straight game this week with an ankle injury. Chris Bober has been playing the LOG spot and he struggled this past week. Kyle Turley lined up at ROT. Turley is currently weighing 265 pounds and you just can't hold up physically in the NFL at that playing weight at any offensive line position. Both players will once again be under the spotlight this week. Bober will try to contain Oakland DT Warren Sapp who once again is playing at a Pro Bowl level.
Turley will get Tyler Brayton, who is physical and can generate a bull rush vs. the undersized Turley. If the Chiefs are going to have better success this week running the football, both of those guys are going to have to play much better.

* You can expect the loss of TE Tony Gonzalez (shoulder sprain) to have
A profound effect on the Chiefs offense this week. Gonzalez is their
Leading receiver with 44 receptions. It is not only what he brings to the table with his own individual skills, but what he means for the entire offense.
The Chiefs have one of the worst WR units in the NFL. Gonzalez is a TE that draws consistent double team attention in the middle of the field. With defenses focusing more of their attention on Gonzalez, it at least
Allowed their mediocre receiving group less attention on the outside. Now with the attention strictly on them, they will struggle to get open. Look for the Raiders to play a ton of man press this week. Veteran Eddie Kennison Lacks the quickness to beat press coverage and Samie Parker is not physical enoughto consistently beat the jam either. The Raiders will surely get eight defenders in the box to slow down Larry Johnson because their corners are good enough in man-press to handle the Chiefs' receivers. You might even see them run a safety late to create a nine-man front. If the Raiders get caught in coverage in that front, it will still be tough for the Chiefs receivers to separate and for Green to fit the ball into a tight window.

* The Oakland Raiders currently posses the worst offensive line in the
NFL. That bad offensive line is battered and bruised which makes matters even worse. Their best player up front, LOG Barry Sims, is expected to miss his third straight game with an abdomen injury. LOT Robert Gallery missed the game last week and is questionable with a groin injury. C Jake Grove(elbow) is a question mark? The Raiders backup depth is marginal at best because if they felt any of them could come in and help, we would have seen them a long time ago.

* One area Oakland will need to be better in this week is run game. RB
LaMont Jordan has been playing with a sore back and he is running
Extremely soft right now. There is little-to-no explosion to and through the hole. Backup Justin Fargas has been nursing a shoulder injury and he has been limited. The offensive line woes we just mentioned, so there are not a lot of holes to run through. The Raiders must stay committed to running the ball this week though. They just don't have any weapons in the passing game and the Raiders will try their best to shorten the game by running the football.
They have a defense that can keep them in this game if they don't turn
The ball over. Look for their focus to be on running the ball, punting the ball and trying their best to play a field position type football game.

* One of the players that can keep them in the game defensively is MLB
Kirk Morrison. He is their leading tackler and 29 of those tackles have come in the past three games. Morrison just continues to get better and better each week and he is taking this match-up as a big time challenge as he will try to stop one of the leagues best in Johnson.

* Despite some defensive injuries, the Chiefs defense has been fairly
Solid of late. Keyaron Fox came in and filled in nicely for starter Derrick Johnson last week at the WLB position. Johnson will be questionable again this week with his ankle. The Chiefs are primarily a cover two defense but if the Raiders were to establish a run game we could see them in more cover three. This would allow them to drop safety Sammy Knight down in the box. This is not something the Chiefs like to do, but could get away with it this week because the Raiders passing offense is so inept.

Special Teams
The Raiders have a slight edge in the kicking game, but the return
games are where the Chiefs get the edge this week. Raiders' core special teamer Isaiah Ekejiuba is going to miss another game, and he is one of their best coverage players on special teams. Neither team is going to be very explosive on offense this week, which means the Chiefs' Dante Hall is a player that can be the difference maker in this game.

Matchups
* Oakland MLB Kirk Morrison vs. Kansas City RB Larry Johnson
* Kansas City LOT Jordan Black vs. Oakland RDE Derrick Burgess
* Kansas City DC Ty Law vs. Oakland WR Randy Moss
* Oakland DC Nnamdi Asomugha vs. Kansas City WR Eddie Kennison
* Kansas City LOG Chris Bober vs. Oakland DT Warren Sapp


Scouts' Edge
The Chiefs come into this game with a lot of question marks and
concerns. Trent Green will be making his first start since the severe concussion the received in Week 1. Nobody has any idea how Green will handle the physical or mental pressure he will be under this week. Star TE Tony Gonzalez is out this week and he is such a big part of the offense. Not only is he productive, he opens up the field for everyone else. The team will once again be without LOG Brian Waters. He was out last week too and it has a profound effect on their run game. So those are all issues on offense and if we can say anything good about the Oakland Raiders, it is that defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has done an outstanding job with the defense. So don't be surprised if the Raiders defense keeps them in it. The big difference however will be the offense and they won't be able to move the ball on the Chiefs' defense.

We like the Chiefs in what could be a close game then people think.

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Raiders 10

AccuScore Game Details ESPN Insider
OAKLAND (211) vs. KANSAS CITY (212) 11/19/2006 1:00 PM (week 11)

AccuScore Game Forecast
Team Win Percent Average Score Big Win Close Win
Oakland Raiders 27.9% 15.9 7.5% 12.5%
Kansas City Chiefs 71.7% 23.1 41.6% 14.3%
AccuScore <http://www.accuscore.com/> has powered more than 10,000 simulations for every NFL game for ESPN.com, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions and opponent's abilities.
Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a
Minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages and player statistics, as listed above. For more, visit AccuScore
<http://www.accuscore.com/>.

OAK offense vs. KC defense rankings OAK offense vs. KC defense rankings
KC offense vs. OAK defense rankings KC offense vs. OAK defense rankings
Explanation
Passing Index: Oakland 3.0, KC 65.0 KC @+62.0
Running index: Oakland 19.0, KC 51.0 KC @+32.0
Composite index: Oakland 11.0, KC 58.0 KC @+47.0
AccuScore uses over 30 different team level statistics in its
simulation weighting algorithm. Part of the calculation involves
calculating
each team's Relative Rank Index in key categories. The team that ranks
1st
in any particular category is given a 100 while the last placed team is
scored a 0. All remaining teams are rated along this normalized 0-100
scale. The AccuScore Composite Index shows a few key offensive power ratings compared to the opposing defenses' power ratings in those categories. Use this data to pinpoint even and lop-sided match-ups.
AccuScore Composite Advantage: KC +15.5

AccuScore Player Forecast Oakland Raiders
PASSING
Player QBR YDS TD INT
Aaron Brooks 67.8 208.9 0.8 1.2

RUSHING
Player RUSH YDS YPC TD
LaMont Jordan 18.0 64.3 3.5 0.3
Aaron Brooks 3.1 19.6 6.2 0.0
Justin Fargas 4.0 17.6 4.4 0.0

RECEIVING
Player REC RECYD YPC RECTD
Randy Moss 4.1 62.7 15.3 0.3
Jerry Porter 3.5 51.9 14.8 0.2
Courtney Anderson 2.0 24.0 12.0 0.1
LaMont Jordan 2.7 19.3 7.1 0.0
DEFENSE
Player SACK INT FUMR TO
OAK 2.6 1.0 0.6 1.6

Kansas City Chiefs
PASSING
Player QBR YDS TD INT
Trent Green 81.8 199.7 1.2 1.0

RUSHING
Player RUSH YDS YPC TD
Larry Johnson 23.2 105.5 4.5 0.9
Michael Bennett 4.8 21.5 4.5 0.1
Trent Green 2.8 10.1 3.6 0.0

RECEIVING
Player REC RECYD YPC RECTD
Eddie Kennison 3.7 56.7 15.3 0.2
Larry Johnson 2.8 31.9 11.4 0.2
Samie Parker 2.5 29.1 11.6 0.2
Dante Hall 2.3 22.5 9.8 0.2
DEFENSE
Player SACK INT FUMR TO
KC 3.2 1.2 0.4 1.6


My edit: Chiefs 27 Raiders 13

StcChief
11-19-2006, 10:43 AM
Analysis Comments ?

FringeNC
11-19-2006, 11:02 AM
Turley only ways 265? Damn.