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View Full Version : Would you trade LJ to the Texans/Raiders/Lions for a 1st and 3rd rounder?


BigRedChief
12-29-2006, 08:53 AM
King Carl would never make that trade but for the sake of a good conversation lets say its possible.............

We are old. We need fresh legs. We have at least 5-6 spots to fill to make us a contender. Do we step back before we go foward? Do we just do the best with what we got and try to add in as best as we can?

The root point (as I see it) is do you believe we can compete for a division title and or a legitamate Super Bowl run in the next two years?

If you think we are not going to be ready in two years you make the trade.

If you think we are going to be ready in two years don't make the trade.

Hydrae
12-29-2006, 08:53 AM
No

DMAC
12-29-2006, 08:55 AM
Do we just do the best with what we got and try to add in as best as we can?

I am sick of doing this.

This has been the plan since Carl has been here...and it has kept us mediocre.

ptlyon
12-29-2006, 08:57 AM
What's the diff? We are going to suck the next 5 years anyway.

BigRedChief
12-29-2006, 08:57 AM
I am sick of doing this.

This has been the plan since Carl has been here...and it has kept us mediocre.Thats the stimulus for the thread. Are you sick of being mediocre? So sick that you trade your stud RB for draft picks and a chance at greatness in the future? But its still just a chance. No gaurantees especially with King Carl making those picks.

DMAC
12-29-2006, 08:58 AM
What's the diff? We are going to suck the next 5 years anyway.Would you rather them suck or be mediocre?

Reerun_KC
12-29-2006, 08:58 AM
2 1st, 3rd and a 5th and I would make that deal in a heart beat....

To many good backs out there producing or that can produce in the future...

Also would trade Huard and Green if possible and pick up a QB for Croyle to compete agianst. I would cut all dead weight and work the draft and free agent market this year...

Take our lumps next year and with the extra picks load up and make serious run into 08....

But we will add some more dead wieght like Carl does each year and suffer through yet another 9-7 season or worse.

DMAC
12-29-2006, 08:59 AM
If we could somehow end up with Michael Turner, then I would be fine with it.

crazycoffey
12-29-2006, 08:59 AM
Let's ask Jerry Jones what he would do?

Oh wait, we already know, Hershel Walker traded

What happened after that trade, anyone anyone

Hoover
12-29-2006, 09:00 AM
The draft is a gamble. In LJ we have one of the top 3 running backs in the league, and you guys want to trade him? Look, Ryan Sims was a sure thing at DT, its all a gamble.

ptlyon
12-29-2006, 09:00 AM
Would you rather them suck or be mediocre?

Doesn't matter, it ain't up to me. It's up to age. We need 1 of everything in the cupboard, except the kickers and RB.

Frankie
12-29-2006, 09:00 AM
Didn't you pose this question on the other Chiefs forum? Except on that thread Houston would pay us this year's 1 & 3, and next year's 2. I would make that trade in a heartbeat. And I would draft nothing but O-linemen and at least one DT in the first day. I think if we shored up the O-line quickly Priest (rumored to want to return), Bennet, Ross and Cruz can provide good running for at least another year. Plus whoever the unpolished gem of the year is that we should not discard at the end of the TC.

Fire Me Boy!
12-29-2006, 09:00 AM
I would think about it for Texans/Lions if it included next year's 1st, too. Not the Raiders. The law of averages says sooner than later the Raiders will pull their head out of their collective ass, and I don't want to face LJ twice a year.

But that's just a "think about it" not an "I'd pull the trigger".

redbrian
12-29-2006, 09:01 AM
2 1st, 3rd and a 5th and I would make that deal in a heart beat....

To many good backs out there producing or that can produce in the future...

Also would trade Huard and Green if possible and pick up a QB for Croyle to compete agianst. I would cut all dead weight and work the draft and free agent market this year...

Take our lumps next year and with the extra picks load up and make serious run into 08....

But we will add some more dead wieght like Carl does each year and suffer through yet another 9-7 season or worse.

You can not trade Huard he is not under contract for next year.

BigRedChief
12-29-2006, 09:01 AM
What happened after that trade, anyone anyone
http://www.firsttvdrama.com/enterprise/images/teacher.jpg

BigRedChief
12-29-2006, 09:02 AM
Didn't you pose this question on the other Chiefs forum?
That was Sly. He doesn't post here. I stole the idea.

DMAC
12-29-2006, 09:03 AM
Giving LJ to the raiders would make me cry.

You should change poll to just Texans/Lions....no raiders.

ptlyon
12-29-2006, 09:04 AM
Would you rather them suck or be mediocre?

Ok - I get it now. You were born in '79. You've only been part of this nightmare since about the mid 80's.

Let me tell you something - the more things change the more they stay the same.

Expect the Lions and even Arizona to be in the SB before we are.

boogblaster
12-29-2006, 09:04 AM
No Hell-no LJ is our future..shore-up the Oline get some DTs and OLBs..we would be ready for a run if game-day coaching steps-up too...

BigRedChief
12-29-2006, 09:06 AM
Ok - I get it now. You were born in '79. You've only been part of this nightmare since about the mid 80's.

Let me tell you something - the more things change the more they stay the same.

Expect the Lions and even Arizona to be in the SB before we are.
The Arizona Cardinals have won a playoff game since the last time we won a playoff game.

StcChief
12-29-2006, 09:07 AM
Might as well, he will want out of KC anyway.
He's a me guy.

Baconeater
12-29-2006, 09:08 AM
Would you rather them suck or be mediocre?
Is there really a difference?

patteeu
12-29-2006, 09:09 AM
I definitely think it's possible for the Chiefs to make a serious run next year if they have a good offseason (I'm always optimistic) and I think ANY NFL team can make a serious run two years from now (including the Texans/Raiders/Lions), but I think I'd still make the trade.

I'd be a little hesitant to make it with the Raiders because we'd have to face a motivated LJ twice per year, but I'd probably do it with the other two. I'd definitely make the trade if it was for two 1sts or if it were for this years 1st and 2nd (which is roughly the same value).

I'd make the trade because RBs don't typically have a long shelf life (and it looks like we are going to ride LJ hard if we keep him) and because I'd love to have an early 1st round shot at a Roaf or Sapp-like lineman or possibly a QB. I say this without really having much of a clue about what kind of talent will be available in the upcoming draft.

Reerun_KC
12-29-2006, 09:10 AM
You can not trade Huard he is not under contract for next year.


Sorry! Havent seen Hootie around to correct me lately....

DMAC
12-29-2006, 09:11 AM
Is there really a difference?Yes, mediocre is on the cusp of being good.

BigRedChief
12-29-2006, 09:12 AM
Yes, mediocre is on the cusp of being good.
ROFL

ptlyon
12-29-2006, 09:13 AM
Yes, mediocre is on the cusp of being good.

15 years of being mediocre has gotten us what again?

DMAC
12-29-2006, 09:13 AM
Let me tell you something - the more things change the more they stay the same.

This is what I pictured when I read that.

http://www.sfist.com/attachments/sfist_chuck/bodysnatchers.jpg

DMAC
12-29-2006, 09:14 AM
15 years of being mediocre has gotten us what again?The term "NEXT YEAR".

ptlyon
12-29-2006, 09:15 AM
This is what I pictured when I read that.


Awesome... I'm glad it had an effect.

ptlyon
12-29-2006, 09:18 AM
The term "NEXT YEAR".

"I don't have any dreams left to dream..."

http://www.i-mockery.com/shorts/rudolph16/14.jpg

CupidStunt
12-29-2006, 09:18 AM
Hell f*cking yes I would.

Woodrow Call
12-29-2006, 09:22 AM
This offense without LJ would be Raider-like.

Keep him and build around him through FA and the draft. IMO the Chiefs are only a LT and WR away from being Top 10 again.

ptlyon
12-29-2006, 09:23 AM
IMO the Chiefs are only a LT and WR away from being Top 10 again.

ROFL

BigRedChief
12-29-2006, 09:23 AM
"I don't have any dreams left to dream..."

http://www.i-mockery.com/shorts/rudolph16/14.jpg
http://dorkafork.com/myimages/waronxmas/yalta.jpg

BigRedChief
12-29-2006, 09:24 AM
This offense without LJ would be Raider-like.

Keep him and build around him through FA and the draft. IMO the Chiefs are only a LT and WR away from being Top 10 again.
So we are set at DT?

Woodrow Call
12-29-2006, 09:27 AM
So we are set at DT?

I was only addressing the offense. Of course we need a DT.

Redrum_69
12-29-2006, 09:28 AM
MAKE THE TRADE!!

Runningbacks who get the ball 400+times a year are a dying breeed

If Larry would ever take those damn diapers off then maybe he would be able to block better

Woodrow Call
12-29-2006, 09:29 AM
ROFL

With improved OL play I don't think it's that much of a stretch.

BigRedChief
12-29-2006, 09:29 AM
I was only addressing the offense. Of course we need a DT.
And those grow on trees? The draft is the safest place to get a stud DT. Free agent DT almost always don't work out.

ptlyon
12-29-2006, 09:30 AM
With improved OL play I don't think it's that much of a stretch.

While losing your line?

What color is the sky in your world?

DMAC
12-29-2006, 09:30 AM
The draft is the safest place to get a stud DT. Yep, just like Ryan Sims.

Woodrow Call
12-29-2006, 09:33 AM
And those grow on trees? The draft is the safest place to get a stud DT. Free agent DT almost always don't work out.

Never said the Chiefs shouldn't draft one. I just wouldnt trade away our entire offense for one.

BigRedChief
12-29-2006, 09:34 AM
Yep, just like Ryan Sims.
Thats on DV, King Carl and Bunting's word. This has been discussed several times. I'm sure a thread search would find it. The end results were that FA DT bomb more than they hit and DT's taken in the top 15 hit good about 70% of the time.

ck_IN
12-29-2006, 09:35 AM
I wouldn't make the trade with the Raiders just on general principle. But I would make it with the other teams.

This team is going to need some major work and by the time it's anywhere near ready LJ will be a FA and signing with an east coast team. Trading him now will give us draft picks to work with and eliminate the franchise tag/poutfest I see looming with LJ.

In no particular order over the next few years we're going to need: DT, CB, LB, OL, WR, QB. If we can get the OL first then Bennett/Holmes/draftee will do fine. LJ draft picks would give us the bullets to get the OL.

cdcox
12-29-2006, 09:37 AM
RB careers are short. LJ could have 7 or 8 years productive years left in him, but I would bet closer to 4. I'd lean toward making the trade.

JBucc
12-29-2006, 09:38 AM
I would with the Lions but not with the Texans or Raiders, and I would also want a conditional pick thrown in for next years draft based on LJ's production or something like that.

Ari Chi3fs
12-29-2006, 09:45 AM
That was Sly. He doesn't post here. I stole the idea.

No way... you stealing ideas/ avatars?

heh.

BigRedChief
12-29-2006, 09:55 AM
No way... you stealing ideas/ avatars?

heh.
I have no witty intellect. I'm old and fat. I hate King Carl but give him $3K a year to be mediocre. :(

I'm going to go to a time out corner and contemplate suicide. Are you happy now?

ptlyon
12-29-2006, 09:57 AM
I'm going to go to a time out corner and contemplate suicide. Are you happy now?

I'm leaning towards the "yes".

Anybody else?

ChiefButthurt
12-29-2006, 09:59 AM
I think that many teams have proven, it's not who is running the ball, it's WHO is blocking. Can I hear anyone say the DONKS?

crazycoffey
12-29-2006, 10:00 AM
I'm leaning towards the "yes".

Anybody else?


Oh, boy are we going to see another cyber cock fight between you two now?

El Jefe
12-29-2006, 10:06 AM
I wouldnt do the trade, but it is very intriguing, because if you think if we got 2 1ST round picks like Reerun_KC said we could grab two backs in the first round and still have our original 1st round pick. Just think who we could have if the picks were high we could have a tandem like Adrian Peterson, and Marshawn Lynch now thats a 1-2 punch. Or we could get Kenny Irons and the list goes on of good backs in this years draft, there are some goodins in this draft.

ChiefsCountry
12-29-2006, 11:47 AM
The question would be is Joe Thomas/Calvin Johnson plus another player worth LJ?

DTLB58
12-29-2006, 12:06 PM
I wouldn't do the trade.

I liked last year's draft class, I'd give Herm another chance in next springs draft to find some guys for the O and D line's that can make an impact right away. ie. Hali and Page.

Maybe Jeff Webb can make it to the active roster next season helping there also.

LJ's a stud KEEP him, Beside I got to much freaking money wrapped in LJ memoribilia already to trade him now! :banghead:

PastorMikH
12-29-2006, 12:12 PM
Trading LJ is ridiculous IMO. He's a young RB with lots of games left in him. He's one of the best in the game in his first full season carrying the ball. Teams have done complete rebuilds in 2-4 years. LJ will still be going strong then barring injury - and his size will help him stay healthy. If it takes longer that 2-4 years, the problem won't be fixed by trading LJ for a couple of picks.


We can't rebuild if we trade away our young talent.

Mecca
12-29-2006, 12:16 PM
I like how people are reacting when I don't think those teams would make that trade......a RB is not worth a top 10 pick. Not in this day an age. With the wear they put on LJ this year I think you'd struggle to get a late 1st rounder for him.

Not to mention there's a younger faster version of LJ in this years draft......

Brock
12-29-2006, 12:20 PM
I don't think any of those teams would make that trade.

el borracho
12-29-2006, 12:21 PM
Well, my first thought is that I would never trade such a great player to the Raidurrs.

Mecca
12-29-2006, 12:24 PM
If anyone was willing to trade me a 1st...a high for for a RB that is coming up on a contract, after likely carrying 400+ times...........I'd do it in a heartbeat.

TN_Chief
12-29-2006, 12:27 PM
If your team is in a "rebuilding mode" you pretty much have to listen to offers. You don't necessarily have to accept them, but you'd better listen.

B_Ambuehl
12-29-2006, 12:38 PM
I would trade him right now for a number 1 pick. Sounds crazy I know but he likely only has one more good year anyway with Herm as HC. His best years are far behind him already...this offensive line takes another big step bakckwards next year with the loss of Shields. Add to that the fact that he no longer runs angry. The way LJ ran the ball in lmited duty from preseason of 2005 into the first half of last season was the most tenacious performance I've ever seen by a running back and it's because he was pissed off....but that aggression is gone. His contract is up after next year and it's doubtful he'll be back....if CP franchises him and he does come back he'll be a locker room cancer. Might as well get something for him while you can.

The key is to have an offensive rushing attack as a whole that averages 4+ yards/carry. Whether you get that from one back carrying the football 30 times a game or splitting it up among many backs is irrelevant IMO. The age of the 1 back offense is behind us.

htismaqe
12-29-2006, 12:45 PM
If your team is in a "rebuilding mode" you pretty much have to listen to offers. You don't necessarily have to accept them, but you'd better listen.

Yep.

Thig Lyfe
12-29-2006, 12:55 PM
You can not trade Huard he is not under contract for next year.

Sign-and-trade!

chappy
12-29-2006, 01:06 PM
Why would the Lions want LJ? running back is not where thier problem lays. Kevin Jones is a good back I doubt they are giving up on him this fast.

Halfcan
12-29-2006, 01:18 PM
No you go to a run Offense featuring LJ that can chew up the clock and keep our D fresh. Trade Tony G and Huard though.

ptlyon
12-29-2006, 01:24 PM
No you go to a run Offense featuring LJ that can chew up the clock and keep our D fresh. Trade Tony G and Huard though.

Thanks Herm.

Any thoughts on what color blinds go with eggshell white walls?

KCChiefsFan88
12-29-2006, 01:38 PM
If Detroit has the #1 overall pick, I'd make that trade in a heart beat. Packaging LJ and some other players/draft picks for the #1 overall pick and say Roy Williams and a 3rd rounder would be huge for the Chiefs. They could finally get their QBOTF in Brady Quinn and have him sit behind Trent for a season or two, and they'd get a big time playmaker at WR in Roy Williams.

Also Detroit of all those teams would be the perfect place to trade LJ if the Chiefs are going to trade him because you'd get him out of the AFC

Rausch
12-29-2006, 01:46 PM
Trade a known quantity (LJ, Probowler) for a CHANCE (Draft pick) at a good player.

Stupid ****ing idea. Dumb all the way around.

If LJ were 33 maybe...

blackhawk
12-29-2006, 03:25 PM
tiki barber is gone! trade lj rocwear to the giants for there 1&3round pick plus dt adams titus.

htismaqe
12-29-2006, 04:12 PM
If Detroit has the #1 overall pick, I'd make that trade in a heart beat. Packaging LJ and some other players/draft picks for the #1 overall pick and say Roy Williams and a 3rd rounder would be huge for the Chiefs. They could finally get their QBOTF in Brady Quinn and have him sit behind Trent for a season or two, and they'd get a big time playmaker at WR in Roy Williams.

Also Detroit of all those teams would be the perfect place to trade LJ if the Chiefs are going to trade him because you'd get him out of the AFC

Brady Quinn? Puh-lease...

Tribal Warfare
12-29-2006, 04:23 PM
Would you trade LJ to the Texans/Raiders/Lions for a 1st and 3rd

No, This is a bad option. LJ is a franchise RB, and guys like this don't come around everyday

Adept Havelock
12-29-2006, 04:23 PM
No.

Nyet.

Nein.

Rain Man
12-29-2006, 04:24 PM
Where's the "Are you nuts?" option?

Oh. There it is.

supercoupe91
12-29-2006, 05:39 PM
Hell yes I would

Two words: Adrian Peterson

KurtCobain
12-29-2006, 05:45 PM
We should trade our asses off and rid ourselves of any player worth consideration for a trade, and try to get atleast 4-5 first round picks, maybe 2 in the top ten. Then we go find the best highschool coach in the country, sign him, and wait for the SB.

BWillie
12-29-2006, 07:33 PM
How about 5 #1 picks next year and I'd think about it. LJ is the second best running back in the league. He's the best player on our team. He may be a complete dickhead, but he's worth more than that.

Easy 6
12-29-2006, 08:10 PM
No.

Way.

Why throw away the #2 RB in the League, at present anyway... this guy is something to TRULY build on for atleast 5 more years. He has yet to even hit his peak, he's got some growing up to do, but so do i.

He loves & studies the game, plays with fire & a VERY grim attitude. Blocking & hands need work, but i think his desire to be mentioned with the Great Ones will drive him to improve those areas.

And he isnt being called the next Jim Brown by just 'ol Joe Scott, the guys a KEEPER......carried us ALL year long.

This clubs history of pounding the rock is the single biggest reason i'm a :arrow: fan, LJ is the Crown Jewel of that legacy IMVVHO.

Mecca
12-29-2006, 08:12 PM
No.

Way.

Why throw away the #2 RB in the League, at present anyway... this guy is something to TRULY build on for atleast 5 more years. He has yet to even hit his peak, he's got some growing up to do, but so do i.

He loves & studies the game, plays with fire & a VERY grim attitude. Blocking & hands need work, but i think his desire to be mentioned with the Great Ones will drive him to improve those areas.

And he isnt being called the next Jim Brown by just 'ol Joe Scott, the guys a KEEPER......carried us ALL year long.

This clubs history of pounding the rock is the single biggest reason i'm a :arrow: fan, LJ is the Crown Jewel of that legacy IMVVHO.

Because..........history says he probably only has 1 year left if that.

Easy 6
12-29-2006, 08:23 PM
Because..........history says he probably only has 1 year left if that.

He's only played about a year & 1/2 in the NFL & did a LOT of watching in college. No way he's gonna just fall apart after 1 full, heavy season.

If he goes 400 carries into a 9 man front NEXT year......then i will worry.

He's a low-mileage Classic, hard to find.

Mecca
12-29-2006, 08:25 PM
He's only played about a year & 1/2 in the NFL & did a LOT of watching in college. No way he's gonna just fall apart after 1 full, heavy season.

If he goes 400 carries into a 9 man front NEXT year......then i will worry.

He's a low-mileage Classic, hard to find.

I'm just going by the numbers here.......Jamal Anderson was actually younger when he did it and wasn't heavily worked prior and he was done after his big carry year.

Easy 6
12-29-2006, 08:33 PM
I'm just going by the numbers here.......Jamal Anderson was actually younger when he did it and wasn't heavily worked prior and he was done after his big carry year.

Did he sit for 2 years in college???

& then sit 2+ years coming out???

A guy like Trent is a perfect example of how little early playing time can extend a career.

Larry will be fine.

milkman
12-29-2006, 08:52 PM
Did he sit for 2 years in college???

& then sit 2+ years coming out???

A guy like Trent is a perfect example of how little early playing time can extend a career.

Larry will be fine.

I believe that Anderson spent two years at Moorpark Jr. College before attending Utah.

The level of talent at the Jr. College level is only slightly above high school, so it's unlikely he took the kind of pounding there, and at Utah, that he would have at a major conference school for 4 years.

He wasn't used much for his first couple of NFL seasons.

So he probably was relatively fresh prior to that '98, 410 carry season.

PastorMikH
12-29-2006, 09:16 PM
Because..........history says he probably only has 1 year left if that.



Runningbacks are only good now for 2 1/2 years of play?


That's news to me. What history are you refering too?


As for Jamal Anderson, he had 2 16 game/1,000 yards seasons before the season where he got 410 carries. He also went down the following year because of an ACL injury. I'm not exactly sure how the carries the year prior is related to the ACL. ACLs happen to rookies just like they do veterans. High-use players and those that come off the bench. In games and in practice.


Faulk got 400+ touches in Indy before going to StL - and he continued to produce in StL for 5-6 more years.

Tiki saw 400+ touches last season in NY and has produced well this year - and iwas criticized earlier in the season for leaving the game with years left in the tank.

Edgerin James put up over 400 touches last season, got traded to the cards this year and is producing this year.

Jamal Lewis had 400+ touches in '03 and has continued to produce



LJ is a big, young back without a lot of gameday mileage on him yet. I think he has a lot of years in his tank.

Mecca
12-29-2006, 09:24 PM
Touches and carries are 2 different things........400+ carries almost always equals a down turn in production. All the backs that carried over 400 times dealt with injury issues following it...that's how the ACL is relatd to his 410 carries.

Jamal Lewis isn't half the player he once was and he's blown both his ACL's.....that might be the comparison of what LJ will be in 2-3 years.

PastorMikH
12-29-2006, 09:44 PM
Touches and carries are 2 different things........400+ carries almost always equals a down turn in production. All the backs that carried over 400 times dealt with injury issues following it...that's how the ACL is relatd to his 410 carries.

Jamal Lewis isn't half the player he once was and he's blown both his ACL's.....that might be the comparison of what LJ will be in 2-3 years.



Yeah, the heavy load Kimble Anders was forced to carry the year before is why his achiles tendon went out too.

Not to mention Sylvester Morris and his ACL.

And touches aren't the same as carries? So that means a RB doesn't get hit when he catches a pass?

Like I said, explain to me exactly how a player is more prone to injury after 1 big year? It seems to me that he would be more prone due to hits in his knees, not carries in general. It would also seem to me that the player would be more prone to injury towards the end of the season with all the carries - when his body is tired and beat up rather than in the seasons following.

There is no doubt that the longer a RB plays, the more inclined he is to injury. But to say that history, stats, or whatever indicate that a player's career is ALMOST ALWAYS over within a year or two of a big seaso is a bit of a stretch IMO. One name isn't going to support the "almost always" arguement IMO.







Here's a site I found about ACL injuries...

http://www.stockton.edu/ospreys/ACL/NflAcl.htm


Interestingly the most ACLs occur in the summer months when players are in the poorest condition.

Also, RBs are the one position with the highest number of incidents - I'm sure the denver chop blocking is taking a toll on DL though.

milkman
12-29-2006, 10:01 PM
Yeah, the heavy load Kimble Anders was forced to carry the year before is why his achiles tendon went out too.

Not to mention Sylvester Morris and his ACL.

And touches aren't the same as carries? So that means a RB doesn't get hit when he catches a pass?

Like I said, explain to me exactly how a player is more prone to injury after 1 big year? It seems to me that he would be more prone due to hits in his knees, not carries in general. It would also seem to me that the player would be more prone to injury towards the end of the season with all the carries - when his body is tired and beat up rather than in the seasons following.

There is no doubt that the longer a RB plays, the more inclined he is to injury. But to say that history, stats, or whatever indicate that a player's career is ALMOST ALWAYS over within a year or two of a big seaso is a bit of a stretch IMO. One name isn't going to support the "almost always" arguement IMO.







Here's a site I found about ACL injuries...

http://www.stockton.edu/ospreys/ACL/NflAcl.htm


Interestingly the most ACLs occur in the summer months when players are in the poorest condition.

Also, RBs are the one position with the highest number of incidents - I'm sure the denver chop blocking is taking a toll on DL though.

They aren't necessarily more prone to injury, so much as nagging ailments, and declining numbers.

Eddie George, Earl Campbell, James Wilder, Barry Foster, Jamal Lewis, along with Anderson, all had big carry years, and none them were ever as productive the following seasons.

PastorMikH
12-29-2006, 10:28 PM
They aren't necessarily more prone to injury, so much as nagging ailments, and declining numbers.

Eddie George, Earl Campbell, James Wilder, Barry Foster, Jamal Lewis, along with Anderson, all had big carry years, and none them were ever as productive the following seasons.


Milkman, I understand the concept and I do agree. The more carries a RB has, the more likely he is to run into problems. However, Mecca's assumption that history dictates that "Almost Always" after a RB puts up 1 big carry season he's done isn't exactly accurate.


Eddie George played 4 full years after that big year, 2 of them over 1k yards and less than half a yard difference per carry.

Earl Campbell played 5-6 more years and almost duplicated his high mark two years later - missed 2 games or he may have surpassed. '81 the oilers in general tanked.

James Wilder did have the dropoff

Barry Foster was a smaller back that didn't do much before his one big season either. Basically, he had one excellent season in 5 years of play.

Jamal Lewis had Justin Taylor seeing more reps after his big year.


'Course there's also Eric Dickerson who kept putting up yards for several years after that big season.

LT has carried some real loads and is still going.

As I stated earlier, Faulk is another.

Ricky Williams did have a "joint" problem after his 2 highly productive seasons, but it was a different kind of "joint"

Walter Peyton is another that cranked out several more years after a high carry season.




Like I said, I understand the concept and I do agree.

There are also other variables to consider - what happened to the rest of the team? Did the coaching staff stay intact? How many years did the player play before they had "the big year"?

Also, as I tried to explain, some of those injuries happened because the player was hit, fell, etc a certain way. There are lots of players every year that take hits that either hamper or end their careers - some are rookies with high prospects that never get to prove themselves, others are up-coming players that never get to reach their full potential, while others, get the hits after they reach the top. And yes, the more a player plays, the more apt they are to take one of those hits. But, those hits can come to any player, irrigardless of how many carries they had the year before. For example, what would Bo Jackson have done if he hadn't taken that hit?

Tribal Warfare
12-29-2006, 10:31 PM
Eddie George, Earl Campbell, James Wilder, Barry Foster, Jamal Lewis, along with Anderson, all had big carry years, and none them were ever as productive the following seasons.


Jim Brown had high carry situations throuhout the year, and is still considered the best RB ever

Extra Point
12-29-2006, 10:34 PM
The Centaur will need some line help, to turn these carries into wins.

PastorMikH
12-29-2006, 10:36 PM
Jim Brown had high carry situations throuhout the year, and is still considered the best RB ever



He is one of the first ones I looked at. For the record, he never even carried 300 times in one season. Of course they didn't need him to with all the yards he was getting on each carry.

:)

Mecca
12-29-2006, 10:39 PM
Jim Brown was bigger than the the lineman when he was playing.....that's really not that much of a valid comparison.

Receptions in space......like a Faulk or an LT are not like LJ taking a carry. They are shifty and avoid contact..especially on receptions.

Not to mention none of the guys you mentioned outside of Dickerson had a 400 carry season and he wasn't playing against the same types of guys LJ does. Everyone is bigger and faster now.

400 carries has been an historically bad number for an RB to reach....he may not fall completley off the face of the earth but there is going to be consequence for this many carries. If you think he's going to have a 8 year career I'd say you're dreaming.

If he goes over 400 this year then comes close again next year....barring he doesn't get hurt. He will likely show some signs of wear and decline....and the year after that he will probably go kaput.

wazu
12-29-2006, 10:45 PM
Not with Carl running the draft.

milkman
12-29-2006, 10:50 PM
Jim Brown had high carry situations throuhout the year, and is still considered the best RB ever

Jim Brown only had a total of 2359 carries in his career.

LJ is almost a quarter of the way to that toal in the last 2 seasons.

Rain Man
12-29-2006, 10:54 PM
Jim Brown only had a total of 2359 carries in his career.

LJ is almost a quarter of the way to that toal in the last 2 seasons.

So ... he would equal that total in about 8 seasons?

milkman
12-29-2006, 10:59 PM
So ... he would equal that total in about 8 seasons?

Actually, after I posted, I looked at LJ's numbers, and I'd forgotten how many carries he had last season.

He is almost a third of the way to Jim Brown's carry numbers in the last two seasons.

At this rate, he'd equal that total in six seasons.

88TG88
12-29-2006, 11:08 PM
i would trade only to lions or texans. if we gave him to a mediocre team LJ could send them over the top to get a SB. the lions or texans are gonna suck for a while they have to many holes

PastorMikH
12-29-2006, 11:19 PM
So ... he would equal that total in about 8 seasons?

Your question intriqued me so I crunched some #s.



LJ has 859 career carries in 4 years (47 games) 4067 yards.

If you just go from the last 2 years, LJ has 719 carries in 2 years (31 games) for 3401 yards


Jim Brown had 2359 carries in 9 years (118 games) 12312 yards


If LJ continues at his career pace, if he reaches 118 games like Borwn, he will have 10210 yards and 2156 carries

However, lookng at the last 2 years, if this is LJ's pace from now on out, he will have 12945 yards and 2736 carries in the 118 games.


Stats tidbit
Brown averaged 20 carries per game, 104.3 yards per game, and 5.21 YPC

LJ averages 23 carries per game, 109.7 yards per game, and 4.73 YPC

LJ is averaging just 3 carries more than Brown, 5 more yards a game and half a yard less in YPC.


LJ's comparison is Jim Brown, he's even alluded to that. If he wants to emulate Brown, this is the pace he will have to keep up for another 5-6 years. It will be difficult, but LJ has shown that he is a tough player. The key is to avoid the serious injuries and keep being productive.

Demonpenz
12-30-2006, 01:02 AM
I would like to see some other backs put in larry's position. Larry's in the top 10 but how many other backs get 3 or 4 3rd and 10+ carries a game. Thats where his numbers get inflated.

RKA
12-31-2006, 09:39 AM
LJ is proven, if he were a Raider, there is no way I would trade him for an unproven rookie that had good numbers in college

I thought LJ was a blown pick when yall got him and laughed with the majority when they were cussing about the pick. But that kid is AWESOME, I would love to see him in Silver & Black

Happy New Year Cheap fans

Coogs
12-31-2006, 09:45 AM
LJ is proven, if he were a Raider, there is no way I would trade him for an unproven rookie that had good numbers in college

I thought LJ was a blown pick when yall got him and laughed with the majority when they were cussing about the pick. But that kid is AWESOME, I would love to see him in Silver & Black

Happy New Year Cheap fans

Pats let Martin go to the Jets for a 1st and a 3rd a few years back, so you never know. Could happen. Even though the draft picks for the Pats didn't pan out (Edwards injury in Hawaii is key here), It seems to have worked out OK for the Pats.

patteeu
12-31-2006, 10:44 AM
Your question intriqued me so I crunched some #s.



LJ has 859 career carries in 4 years (47 games) 4067 yards.

If you just go from the last 2 years, LJ has 719 carries in 2 years (31 games) for 3401 yards


Jim Brown had 2359 carries in 9 years (118 games) 12312 yards


If LJ continues at his career pace, if he reaches 118 games like Borwn, he will have 10210 yards and 2156 carries

However, lookng at the last 2 years, if this is LJ's pace from now on out, he will have 12945 yards and 2736 carries in the 118 games.


Stats tidbit
Brown averaged 20 carries per game, 104.3 yards per game, and 5.21 YPC

LJ averages 23 carries per game, 109.7 yards per game, and 4.73 YPC

LJ is averaging just 3 carries more than Brown, 5 more yards a game and half a yard less in YPC.


LJ's comparison is Jim Brown, he's even alluded to that. If he wants to emulate Brown, this is the pace he will have to keep up for another 5-6 years. It will be difficult, but LJ has shown that he is a tough player. The key is to avoid the serious injuries and keep being productive.

That's a pretty optimistic analysis since it assumes that LJ will never suffer a significant injury and that he can sustain his current performance level for the next 4.5 years.

Meanwhile, back in reality, LJ's performance dropped off significantly from last year with Willie Roaf to this year without him. Next year or the year after, he will lose Will Shields. Last season, he had what was arguably the best line in football blocking for him. I'd like to think that the Chiefs can rebuild that line and once again make an argument for that distinction, but the odds work against them now that they seem to be placing top focus on improving the defense.

BigRedChief
02-15-2007, 09:27 PM
bump

noa
02-15-2007, 09:34 PM
First, I don't think we could get a top 10 draft pick for LJ.

Second, if the Chiefs hadn't used their last top 10 pick on Ryan Sims, I might have confidence they could do something positive with the pick.

boogblaster
02-15-2007, 09:41 PM
Sell the cow, no milk or butter.. I like milk on me cearel and butter on me toast ...