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View Full Version : Hard decisions need to be made and we are the guys to do it! Off season moves thread


BigRedChief
01-08-2007, 11:09 AM
Hard and painful decisions need to be made.

1. King Carl needs to resign as GM and stay on as CEO/El Presidente. Not going to happen but it's what should happen.

2. Don't re-sign Tony G. Pains me to say that. I love Tony G but one of the reason why the Pats have been successful has been their willingness to let long time older players go instead of giving them a nice big end of the career contract. We have too many holes to fill and he's only got 1-2 productive years left but he will get paid for 5-6 years. See where I spend his money below.

3. Re-sign Jared Allen. Give him some money to hire a limo or pay for a cab.

4. Re-sign Jimmy Wilkerson. Should be a "cheap" resignee and he has a lot of upside.

5. Give LJ some more money. Maybe we could get a 1st and 3rd for him but maybe not. And if we did get that we would still have King Carl picking those draft picks. I'll take the sure thing with LJ over a gamble of King Carl draft picks.

6. Trade Trent Green to Washington for draft picks. Whatever we can get. Fire Sale prices if needed. I love Trent for what he has done for KC but its time to move on.

7. Keep Ty Law and pay him the roster bonus. We need big time playmakers with big game experience. He's the only one we got right now.

8. Resign Huard as the stopgap starting QB. Going on the assumption/rumors that I hear that Herm believes that Croyle really is the QOTF. And Herm is in charge of that part of the team.

9. Shields needs to retire. I don't want to see this legends skills erode any further. I want to remember him pancaking Ray-Ray.

10. Release Dante Hall. He has given me a lot of great memories but that is all we will ever have in the future from Dante is those memories. He has lost his burst.

11. Release Priest Holmes. For 3 years he gave us such joy. We don't need to see a public fight and all that goes with it. King Carl just needs to let him keep his signing bonus money.

12. Pay money for the top LT on the FA market.

13. Pay money for the top DT on the FA market.

14. Pay money for the top WR on the FA market. We pay for these 3 FA's with the cap money not being paid next year to Roaf, Shields, Sims, Hicks, Knight, Holmes, Hall, Bell, Mitchell, Green and Gonzalez.

15. Draft DT, OT, OG and WR. Whenever you pick take the best one of those positions that are available.

16. Let Ryan Sims and Kawika Mitchell go. Release Knight, Hicks, Hall, Bartee and Bell.

Herm gets more than one year. He gets to pick his coaches. Hopefully he realizes the predictability of the play calling and gets it changed.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 11:10 AM
Can we drop this "trade Trent Green" idea? It would destroy the cap.

noa
01-08-2007, 11:12 AM
I don't think Washington will want Trent, unless he's going to be a backup. They just made the change to their QBOTF.
Also, this has been mentioned in several other threads, the the WR free agent market isn't great. If we're going to make a real upgrade at the position, I think we'll have to do it through the draft or a trade.

BigRedChief
01-08-2007, 11:13 AM
Can we drop this "trade Trent Green" idea? It would destroy the cap.
Divorces are painful but we have to move on. Trent is done here in KC.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 11:14 AM
Divorces are painful but we have to move on. Trent is done here in KC.

It's not going to happen. The Chiefs are not going to trade Trent Green. Furthermore, I doubt there are any takers.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 11:15 AM
They just made the change to their QBOTF.


There's also that to consider. The Redskins HAVE their quarterback. Why give up picks for another one?

BigRedChief
01-08-2007, 11:15 AM
It's not going to happen. The Chiefs are not going to trade Trent Green. Furthermore, I doubt there are any takers.
I know. This is a wish list only.

|Zach|
01-08-2007, 11:15 AM
So we are playing money for top WR, LT, and DT in the draft and giving LJ more money?

crazycoffey
01-08-2007, 11:16 AM
Can we drop this "trade Trent Green" idea? It would destroy the cap.

I thought trades took the salary with them and therefore not a cap hit? I know I don't know everthing about the logistics, so please just hand out the information and not the slander.

I thought the cap would take a hit if we were just to drop/release a player who still has bonus and salary for the next couple of years.

Again I also ask (asked on another thread just a few minutes ago, so it may have been answered) what about retirements. Like when Roaf retired, was his salary numbers for this year still on our cap numbers? If Trent were to retire, would that help?

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 11:17 AM
I thought trades took the salary with them and therefore not a cap hit?

The signing bonus would accelerate. I'm guessing it's around $15 million.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 11:21 AM
OK. I'm stupid. Or ignorant, whatever. Take your pick.

Green's contract was 7 years, $50 million with an $11.25 million signing bonus. I'm guessing around half of that bonus has already been paid out. So we'd eat the rest, which wouldn't be too horrible of a cap hit.

In fact, Green is scheduled to make over $7 million in 2007, and I'm betting the accelerated bonus money is less than that.

Am I wrong somewhere?

Extra Point
01-08-2007, 11:22 AM
Retain Trent Green, but as QB coach. Let go of Priest Holmes. Keep Tony G. Trade, not draft, for a DE and DT. Draft, not trade for, D-backs.

Trade for another vet at O-Tackle. Draft for O-guard to be tutored under Waters and Shields for the next two drafts.

Draft Jamarcus Russell out of LSU, and let Brody Croyle and him fight it out for 2nd and 3rd string. Retain Damon Huard and start him. See if we can get ahold of J. P. Losman.

Trade/pick up on waivers a wide out, trading away Dante Hall. Keep the RB's we have now.

Post next season, draft for TE, for TG's replacement. Release TG after the next 3 seasons.

More (or try?) slant passes on first down. Run only one back in the backfield, or run the I with 2 backs.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 11:23 AM
Retain Trent Green, but as QB coach.

:rolleyes:

Maybe we can get Joe Montana as OC!!!

Demonpenz
01-08-2007, 11:26 AM
Could we get a second for trent? Nor maybe 2 3rd rounders?

greg63
01-08-2007, 11:28 AM
So we are playing money for top WR, LT, and DT in the draft and giving LJ more money?


I think that just about sums it up.

txhawk
01-08-2007, 11:28 AM
1. Fire carl. Hire Pioli, before the Giants do.
2. Let TGonzo go, use money on an Eric Johnson/Daniel Graham both UFAs
3. Re up LJ.
4. Sign one or two UFA Olinemen, ie Mike Gandy/Leonard Davis/Romen Oben in order of preference.
4. Draft Best available player of one of these positions, WR, OL, LB or QB. Though I think it's hard to expect a rookie WR/QB to make a significant Impact next season.
5. Sign Drew Bennett. Not the best WR, but has size and good hands. Kevin Curtis would be nice in the slot as well
6. Send me millions for this uncanny insight.

ct
01-08-2007, 11:54 AM
Trades/Releases clear the salary, but accrue the remaining signing bonus. Nobody will trade for Trent, sorry, get over it.

Tag Gonzo and pay him the 1 year tender for TEs. Frankly, it won't be that much. If you go with the assumption he's got 1-2 good years left, this is the best long term move to keep him, rather than a large and long contract that we'll pay for later. If you want to trade him, I'm fine with that, but don't let him walk.

Dante may have some trade value, 3rd/4th perhaps. He still has a good rep as a return man around the league, despite that we all know better by now. Might even get a player of need out of him.

Keep Trent(reneg), Gonzo(1 yr franchise tender), Mitchell(decent long term contract), Law(pay the play-maker), Wilkerson(excellent depth, potential starter), LJ(time to pay the franchise RB), Dunn.

Release Sims, Bell, Wesley, Hicks, Holmes, Knight (or reneg for him to remain as vet backup), Parker, Brown, Turley.

Let Shields retire. Convince him to retire.

Trade Dante for mid round pick.

Let Huard seek his greener pastures.

Sign FA: WR (not top tier, maybe a #2 guy), OLB. Guess I just don't expect much FA activity from KC this year.

Draft DT/OT with earliest picks, with eyes on WR/CB/DE early as well. Late round OG/C/LB prospects too. That's more positions than we have picks, I know, just what we should be looking for, IMO.

Plan on:

1) Trent/Brodie to fight it out for starter/backup.
2) Bennett to backup LJ another year. Bigfoot plays that FB/TE/H-back hybrid role again.
3) Welborne slides to RG. I-65 moves to RT. Rookie LT takes his lumps. Rudy battles Weigman for starting Center. Casey might even get cut, wouldn't surprise me at all.
4) Webb/Kennison starting WRs, with Hannon out of the slot. Perhaps a FA or rookie emerges to provide a receiving boost.
5) Webb returns kicks.
6) Tynes gets a real challenge this TC. I suspect he'll hold off the challenger.
7) JW to battle rookie and Edwards for starting DTs.
8) Page/Pollard starting S tandem. Knight is renegotiated and kept as depth.
9) Fox/Griffin/FA/rookie battle for Bell's OLB spot.

|Zach|
01-08-2007, 11:58 AM
Could we get a second for trent? Nor maybe 2 3rd rounders?
ROFL

crazycoffey
01-08-2007, 12:00 PM
The signing bonus would accelerate. I'm guessing it's around $15 million.

What about retirement?

BIG_DADDY
01-08-2007, 12:02 PM
I just hope we can bring in Cowhers next year.

BigRedChief
01-08-2007, 12:06 PM
So we are playing money for top WR, LT, and DT in the draft and giving LJ more money?
I guess. These are the moves I'd make and how I pay for them.
12. Pay money for the top LT on the FA market.

13. Pay money for the top DT on the FA market.

14. Pay money for the top WR on the FA market.

We pay for these 3 FA's with the cap money not being paid next year to Roaf, Shields, Sims, Hicks, Knight, Holmes, Hall, Bell, Mitchell, Green and Gonzalez.

HemiEd
01-08-2007, 12:11 PM
There's also that to consider. The Redskins HAVE their quarterback. Why give up picks for another one?

I heard the other day on Sirius, that the Redskin's draft choice selection is pretty slim. I think they have already mortgaged their future to the max.

morphius
01-08-2007, 12:22 PM
I don't think top LT make the FA market often.

ct
01-08-2007, 12:25 PM
I heard the other day on Sirius, that the Redskin's draft choice selection is pretty slim. I think they have already mortgaged their future to the max.

Dan Snyder has made it very clear he does not value the draft. He would rather play the FA game, or trade the picks in bunches for somebody he falls in love with.

ct
01-08-2007, 12:26 PM
I don't think top LT make the FA market often.

We traded a 3rd for an "aging, on the decline" Willie Roaf. Perhaps we can pull off the same/similar for Orlando Pace?

BIG_DADDY
01-08-2007, 12:28 PM
We traded a 3rd for an "aging, on the decline" Willie Roaf. Perhaps we can pull off the same/similar for Orlando Pace?


It would be great to get Pace.

BigRedChief
01-08-2007, 12:29 PM
It would be great to get Pace.Yes, it would be great to get pace. Give up a 3rd too. Worked once.

noa
01-08-2007, 12:33 PM
We already had a thread about getting Orlando Pace and Mecca pointed out that it would be a huge cap hit for the Rams to trade him away due to the new contract he signed a couple years ago.

BigRedChief
01-08-2007, 01:29 PM
We already had a thread about getting Orlando Pace and Mecca pointed out that it would be a huge cap hit for the Rams to trade him away due to the new contract he signed a couple years ago.
:cuss:

Mecca
01-08-2007, 01:34 PM
Your ideas are fine other than a few........there are no top LT's or DT's in FA this year it's a bad crop of very middle tiered players.

Paying Larry Johnson after this year is not something I'd do. I want to see if he's going to rapidly decline after his huge carry year like other backs have, I don't want to be saddled with a big contract unproductive player.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 01:36 PM
here are no top LT's or DT's in FA this year it's a bad crop of very middle tiered players.



Is there a list somewhere?

Mecca
01-08-2007, 01:37 PM
Is there a list somewhere?

The top Tackles are guys like Max Starks.....

crazycoffey
01-08-2007, 01:41 PM
DOES ANYONE KNOW WHAT HAPPENS TO THE SIGNING BONUS / CAP RULES WHEN A PLAYER RETIRES,

Just curious, but like Roaf retiring did that hurt us cap wise.

Also, and more importantly, if Green retired, what happens to that 6-7 million accelerated signing bonus?

BigRedChief
01-08-2007, 01:47 PM
Your ideas are fine other than a few........there are no top LT's or DT's in FA this year it's a bad crop of very middle tiered players.

Paying Larry Johnson after this year is not something I'd do. I want to see if he's going to rapidly decline after his huge carry year like other backs have, I don't want to be saddled with a big contract unproductive player.
If you are going to keep LJ and not give him top RB money you could be sitting yourself up for a disgruntled RB in the locker room. And a disgruntled LJ in the locker room would be a big distraction

Mecca
01-08-2007, 01:49 PM
If you are going to keep LJ and not give him top RB money you could be sitting yourself up for a disgruntled RB in the locker room. And a disgruntled LJ in the locker room would be a big distraction

I'd rather trade him than pay a guy who just had a 400 carry year and looked half dead in the playoff game.......Just going on history here, if they pay him you are probably looking at a big contract unproducive player.

Don't worry though it will happen he's one of Carl's boys, same as Tony. They'll be here long after they aren't productive anymore because of Carl.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 01:51 PM
I doubt Starks will leave Pittsburgh. If he does he would solve our RT problem.

B_Ambuehl
01-08-2007, 01:51 PM
Niswanger better than Wiegmann?

Webb a starting WR?

LOL

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 01:52 PM
I'd rather trade him

I'm going to laugh when the player you wanted to trade puts up another 1,800 yards and 20 TD. LMAO

Mecca
01-08-2007, 01:57 PM
I'm going to laugh when the player you wanted to trade puts up another 1,800 yards and 20 TD. LMAO

I'd never give a RB a 2nd contract anyway......you're overpaying for no reason it's by far the easiest position to find in the NFL and you're just wasting money.

MOhillbilly
01-08-2007, 01:58 PM
Hard and painful decisions need to be made.

1. King Carl needs to resign as GM and stay on as CEO/El Presidente. Not going to happen but it's what should happen.

2. Don't re-sign Tony G. Pains me to say that. I love Tony G but one of the reason why the Pats have been successful has been their willingness to let long time older players go instead of giving them a nice big end of the career contract. We have too many holes to fill and he's only got 1-2 productive years left but he will get paid for 5-6 years. See where I spend his money below.

3. Re-sign Jared Allen. Give him some money to hire a limo or pay for a cab.

4. Re-sign Jimmy Wilkerson. Should be a "cheap" resignee and he has a lot of upside.

5. Give LJ some more money. Maybe we could get a 1st and 3rd for him but maybe not. And if we did get that we would still have King Carl picking those draft picks. I'll take the sure thing with LJ over a gamble of King Carl draft picks.

6. Trade Trent Green to Washington for draft picks. Whatever we can get. Fire Sale prices if needed. I love Trent for what he has done for KC but its time to move on.

7. Keep Ty Law and pay him the roster bonus. We need big time playmakers with big game experience. He's the only one we got right now.

8. Resign Huard as the stopgap starting QB. Going on the assumption/rumors that I hear that Herm believes that Croyle really is the QOTF. And Herm is in charge of that part of the team.

9. Shields needs to retire. I don't want to see this legends skills erode any further. I want to remember him pancaking Ray-Ray.

10. Release Dante Hall. He has given me a lot of great memories but that is all we will ever have in the future from Dante is those memories. He has lost his burst.

11. Release Priest Holmes. For 3 years he gave us such joy. We don't need to see a public fight and all that goes with it. King Carl just needs to let him keep his signing bonus money.

12. Pay money for the top LT on the FA market.

13. Pay money for the top DT on the FA market.

14. Pay money for the top WR on the FA market. We pay for these 3 FA's with the cap money not being paid next year to Roaf, Shields, Sims, Hicks, Knight, Holmes, Hall, Bell, Mitchell, Green and Gonzalez.

15. Draft DT, OT, OG and WR. Whenever you pick take the best one of those positions that are available.

16. Let Ryan Sims and Kawika Mitchell go. Release Knight, Hicks, Hall, Bartee and Bell.

Herm gets more than one year. He gets to pick his coaches. Hopefully he realizes the predictability of the play calling and gets it changed.
thats a hell of a bill to foot in one year.

reisgn huard keep green as a back up.
release wesley,sims,sampson,black,bell,hicks,parker & dante.

go after either in the draft or FA-#1- A REAL ****ING DEAL FB. then in no paticular order-OT,OG,LB,CB,WR.

face it unfortunately peterson and solari arent going anywhere.
i thought at the start of the season that solari could get the job done but its clear when things dont go his was he draws a .......

edit- add turley to that list.

Frazod
01-08-2007, 02:12 PM
I would have no problem trading Larry away for some serious high picks. The offense will be rebuilding next year, and I think he'll whine and pout and be a friggin lockerroom cancer. It also seems pretty obvious that he wants to play for big city team on the coast. Let's shitcan him now and get some value for him before another 400+ carry season destroys his body and we're just stuck with an always-injured malcontent jerkoff.

IMO, we should resign Allen, deal Johnson, and tag and deal Gonzalez. And deal Green if we can find somebody who'll actually take him. Our top priority should be rebuilding the offensive line, which is a putrid and pathetic shell of its former self.

The old Chiefs O is GONE. Time to sweep away the corpses and begin again.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 02:20 PM
I would have no problem trading Larry away for some serious high picks. The offense will be rebuilding next year, and I think he'll whine and pout and be a friggin lockerroom cancer. It also seems pretty obvious that he wants to play for big city team on the coast. Let's shitcan him now and get some value for him before another 400+ carry season destroys his body and we're just stuck with an always-injured malcontent jerkoff.

IMO, we should resign Allen, deal Johnson, and tag and deal Gonzalez. And deal Green if we can find somebody who'll actually take him. Our top priority should be rebuilding the offensive line, which is a putrid and pathetic shell of its former self.

The old Chiefs O is GONE. Time to sweep away the corpses and begin again.

You want an example.......the Colts, they let James walk away their fine. Or the Patriots they let guys walk away constantly....the Chiefs biggest problem is Carls attachment to players, we'll overpay for LJ and TG and be stuck.

Frazod
01-08-2007, 02:22 PM
You want an example.......the Colts, they let James walk away their fine. Or the Patriots they let guys walk away constantly....the Chiefs biggest problem is Carls attachment to players, we'll overpay for LJ and TG and be stuck.

Yeah, it'll probably go down that way. :shake:

Mecca
01-08-2007, 02:25 PM
Yeah, it'll probably go down that way. :shake:

It's an organizational problem....he's stuck on 30 year old overpaid players. Watch they'll try to talk Shields into staying....how about you uh find a new guard?

Doing what the Chiefs do with guys like TG will get you 7-8 8-8 9-7 and to me that isn't good enough but I'm sure to Carl it is.

Woodrow Call
01-08-2007, 02:29 PM
The old Chiefs O is GONE. Time to sweep away the corpses and begin again.

Yep

Tuckdaddy
01-08-2007, 02:32 PM
I don't care what it takes, Trent can't start next year. I love his leadership and desire but his skills are gone.

Woodrow Call
01-08-2007, 02:33 PM
You want an example.......the Colts, they let James walk away their fine. Or the Patriots they let guys walk away constantly....the Chiefs biggest problem is Carls attachment to players, we'll overpay for LJ and TG and be stuck.

It's an organizational problem....he's stuck on 30 year old overpaid players. Watch they'll try to talk Shields into staying....how about you uh find a new guard?

Doing what the Chiefs do with guys like TG will get you 7-8 8-8 9-7 and to me that isn't good enough but I'm sure to Carl it is.


Well said. Wont argue with anything you said.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 02:34 PM
I don't care what it takes, Trent can't start next year. I love his leadership and desire but his skills are gone.

Carl replace Trent......believe it when I see it. The Chiefs as a whole are just far to loyal to players and don't seem to know when to walk away.

dirk digler
01-08-2007, 02:38 PM
It's an organizational problem....he's stuck on 30 year old overpaid players. Watch they'll try to talk Shields into staying....how about you uh find a new guard?

Doing what the Chiefs do with guys like TG will get you 7-8 8-8 9-7 and to me that isn't good enough but I'm sure to Carl it is.

Not defending Carl but he really has only done that 3 times and that was with DT, Priest and Trent. This will be Tony's 3rd or 4th contract and I don't necessarily have a problem letting him go but I think LJ will be just fine.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 02:39 PM
Not defending Carl but he really has only done that 3 times and that was with DT, Priest and Trent. This will be Tony's 3rd or 4th contract and I don't necessarily have a problem letting him go but I think LJ will be just fine.

Then why is our damn team so old......there's a reason teams like the Colts/Pats and Eagles stay good we we stay mediocre.

You build with young players not with guys past 30....

Woodrow Call
01-08-2007, 02:42 PM
Then why is our damn team so old......there's a reason teams like the Colts/Pats and Eagles stay good we we stay mediocre.

You build with young players not with guys past 30....
:clap:

Those teams also know when to cut-bait and look in another direction on younger players as well. I guarantee the Chiefs won't do that with Mitchell and Parker.

dirk digler
01-08-2007, 02:44 PM
Then why is our damn team so old......there's a reason teams like the Colts/Pats and Eagles stay good we we stay mediocre.

You build with young players not with guys past 30....

CP likes veteran players..I don't know why he just does.

I agree with your last statement but CP has really only been loyal to a few players. I forgot to add Will Shields to that list but he is a HOF and has been played pretty well up to this year but to be honest he was going to retire last year until Roaf talked him out of it.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 02:48 PM
Guys......it's the Chiefs as a whole. It's everything Lamar was and Carl has adopted that too......the world Loyalty. If a player he drafted is any good he's loyal to them to a fault.

We bring in new front office people....they're all people Carl knew in the past Bill Kuharick and the like...since Schottenheimer all of CP's coach hires are people from his past, loyalty.

Lamar was also Loyal to a fault, ask Jack Steadman and Carl himself.

Loyalty may be a good thing to have sometimes but in the NFL it isn't and it's killing the Chiefs organization.

dirk digler
01-08-2007, 02:56 PM
Guys......it's the Chiefs as a whole. It's everything Lamar was and Carl has adopted that too......the world Loyalty. If a player he drafted is any good he's loyal to them to a fault.

We bring in new front office people....they're all people Carl knew in the past Bill Kuharick and the like...since Schottenheimer all of CP's coach hires are people from his past, loyalty.

Lamar was also Loyal to a fault, ask Jack Steadman and Carl himself.

Loyalty may be a good thing to have sometimes but in the NFL it isn't and it's killing the Chiefs organization.

I agree with you Mecca but it is ok to be loyal to certain players that have earned it. CP learned the hard way when he came out and said he wouldn't re-sign Neil Smith. He was crucified. There was no way in hell he was not going to re-sign DT because he probably would have been killed and that is no joke.

It is one thing to cut 30+ year old players and another thing to cut/not resign 30yr+ old future HOF'ers.

As far as the rest goes that is very common in the NFL. Everyone brings in their buddies because that is who they are comfortable with. I am not saying it is right but that is the way it is.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 02:59 PM
The Pats walked away from Ty Law.......lots of teams have walked away from top level players who might make the HOF when they could still play.

The Chiefs walk away from those players when either that guy no longer wants to be here or the cap doesn't allow them to stay. He didn't walk away from Neil because he was old or was thought to be on the downswing, he walked away because we didn't have the cap space for it.

dirk digler
01-08-2007, 03:06 PM
The Pats walked away from Ty Law.......lots of teams have walked away from top level players who might make the HOF when they could still play.

The Chiefs walk away from those players when either that guy no longer wants to be here or the cap doesn't allow them to stay. He didn't walk away from Neil because he was old or was thought to be on the downswing, he walked away because we didn't have the cap space for it.

The 49ers let Montana go and the Raiders let Marcus Allen go and it benefited the Chiefs. As did Ty Law being here now. Veteran players can make a huge contribution to the team.

CP used that excuse but it is funny how other teams can afford players but we couldn't. Anyway it was good for Neil because he won 2 SB rings so I am sure he is not complaining a bit.

What I would like to see is alot of young players mixed in with a few veterans.

Plus I would love for the front office and coaching staff be blown away but I know it is not going to happen anytime soon.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:08 PM
See that's the thing....your team should be built in the draft with young talented players and a few FA's mixed in here and there.

We're an old FA built team with draft choices mixed in here and there, I seriously think our oganization still doesn't grasp what the draft is.

crazycoffey
01-08-2007, 03:09 PM
http://www.kcchiefs.com/i/polltitle.gifWill the Chiefs go further next season?
Yes23%
Let's see the draft15%
Let's see free agency20%
I hope so41%


Is it just me, or maybe fans still feeling the sting from the loss, but 41% put thier answer on 'hope' is a bad sign

dirk digler
01-08-2007, 03:10 PM
See that's the thing....your team should be built in the draft with young talented players and a few FA's mixed in here and there.

We're an old FA built team with draft choices mixed in here and there, I seriously think our oganization still doesn't grasp what the draft is.

I agree.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:12 PM
http://www.kcchiefs.com/i/polltitle.gifWill the Chiefs go further next season?
Yes23%
Let's see the draft15%
Let's see free agency20%
I hope so41%


Is it just me, or maybe fans still feeling the sting from the loss, but 41% put thier answer on 'hope' is a bad sign

Hope is really all you have as a Chiefs fan.....been that way for awhile.

Reerun_KC
01-08-2007, 03:12 PM
Hope was lost when Herm was hired...

Now I just watch as a formality and very excited about the hire of new coach at One Arrowhead Dr, in the coming years...

The dark cloud that hangs over Arrowhead is to depressing.

BigMeatballDave
01-08-2007, 03:13 PM
I would have no problem trading Larry away for some serious high picks. The offense will be rebuilding next year, and I think he'll whine and pout and be a friggin lockerroom cancer. It also seems pretty obvious that he wants to play for big city team on the coast. Let's shitcan him now and get some value for him before another 400+ carry season destroys his body and we're just stuck with an always-injured malcontent jerkoff.

IMO, we should resign Allen, deal Johnson, and tag and deal Gonzalez. And deal Green if we can find somebody who'll actually take him. Our top priority should be rebuilding the offensive line, which is a putrid and pathetic shell of its former self.

The old Chiefs O is GONE. Time to sweep away the corpses and begin again.I wonder what the Giants would be willing to give up for LJ. They are missing a starting RB, last I checked...

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:14 PM
I wonder what the Giants would be willing to give up for LJ. They are missing a starting RB, last I checked...

Their 1st rounder is somewhat late so you might be able to get that but I still think LJ's value is more 2nd round just due to his workload and the amount of money he's going to want.

Frazod
01-08-2007, 03:17 PM
Our entire offensive line is completely comprised of old has-beens and youthful never-will-bes. It doesn't matter who runs or throws behind a line that can neither run block nor pass block. If we can get value for our offensive weapons which have been rendered useless by the ineffective line, that seems like the way to go.

I see no need to pay Johnson, Gonzalez and Green millions of dollars next year to generally get stuffed at the line of scrimmage, run block and get killed by passrushers.

El Jefe
01-08-2007, 03:18 PM
Extra Point, we do not want Russell, that was a stupi thought. Even if we wanted him we wont get him at our pick, and we had better not go QB with our first pick unless its Troy Smith a proven winner.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 03:18 PM
Trading LJ is the worst possible thing this franchise could do.

Frazod
01-08-2007, 03:19 PM
I wonder what the Giants would be willing to give up for LJ. They are missing a starting RB, last I checked...

If we deal him, it damn well better be to a team with a much higher draft pick to offer.

Frazod
01-08-2007, 03:20 PM
Trading LJ is the worst possible thing this franchise could do.

You're wrong.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:20 PM
Trading LJ is the worst possible thing this franchise could do.

Yes because RB is such a difficult position to replace......oh wait.......

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 03:20 PM
You're wrong.

You're right. We could just let him leave after next year. That would be worse.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 03:21 PM
Yes because RB is such a difficult position to replace......oh wait.......

Chargers should trade LT in a couple years, right?

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:21 PM
If we deal him, it damn well better be to a team with a much higher draft pick to offer.

I'm telling you the Giants 1st rounder is probably the absolute best you could get. Not that many teams need RB's alot of teams would never trade a 1st rounder for a RB especially one with a heavy workload and wanting a new contract.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 03:22 PM
Wow. You'd take one first rounder for Larry Johnson?

I'm glad Mecca isn't running the Chiefs.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:22 PM
Chargers should trade LT in a couple years, right?

I wouldn't pay him after this contract he'll be past 30.....He's also never had the workload of LJ and LT is a HOF RB.....he's better than LJ sure there are a few exceptions but whats gone on with LJ so far he's showing to be a classic get rid of him fast before he breaks down guy.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:24 PM
Wow. You'd take one first rounder for Larry Johnson?

I'm glad Mecca isn't running the Chiefs.

He's a RB....the easiest position on the field to replace, almost every team in the league has an RB. I'd take what I can get because I personally believe LJ has 1 more productive year in him if that after his assinine carry load this year.

If LJ shows a huge decline next year then looks like Eddie George the year after you'll wish you got something for him at all.

El Jefe
01-08-2007, 03:25 PM
LJ has 2-3 good years left IMO. I would not take only 1 first round pick no way.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 03:25 PM
Mecca, you seem so confident that LJ is going to fall off next year.

Tell you what...put your money where your mouth is. I'll bet you $50 that LJ gets at least 1,500 yards rushing next season.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:26 PM
You guys just don't get how the NFL works......if Pat Surtain nets a mid 2nd round pick there is no way in hell you can get more than a late first round pick for LJ....hell I think you'd be lucky to get that.

Frazod
01-08-2007, 03:28 PM
LJ has 2-3 good years left IMO. I would not take only 1 first round pick no way.

Behind a good O-line, he probably has more left than that. Unfortunately, at this point it seems like an either/or proposition for us.

But I agree, we should get more than just a 1st.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:28 PM
Mecca, you seem so confident that LJ is going to fall off next year.

Tell you what...put your money where your mouth is. I'll bet you $50 that LJ gets at least 1,500 yards rushing next season.

On how many carries......I'm positive his YPC will go down. If he carries it 420 times yea he'll have 1500 yards even though that would be a significant decline.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 03:29 PM
On how many carries......I'm positive his YPC will go down. If he carries it 420 times yea he'll have 1500 yards even though that would be a significant decline.

1,500 yards and averages at least 4 YPC. If he gets hurt, you win. If he becomes a linebacker, you win.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:31 PM
Behind a good O-line, he probably has more left than that. Unfortunately, at this point it seems like an either/or proposition for us.

But I agree, we should get more than just a 1st.

Show me which team will give the Chiefs alot for LJ......

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:33 PM
1,500 yards and averages at least 4 YPC. If he gets hurt, you win. If he becomes a linebacker, you win.

I'd consider it but remind me again around June, I'll forget if I make a bet this early before the next season.

kcfanXIII
01-08-2007, 03:35 PM
keep LJ, TG, waters and shields (if he wants to stay) the rest of the offense can be scrapped. parker is too weak to start. you can sneeze and he'll fall over. black, aka "I-65", can get hit by a bus, so he can get a taste of what he put green through this season. wilson, though exciting at times, is not a blocking fb that is needed for the run-run-pass-punt offense that has taken hold. trent, please retire, before you turn into troy aikman and ruin a promising tv career. dante, the x-factor no more. no matter if its him or the loss of decent st blocking, he's not the same. the defense is pretty simple, new DTs, and a LB. if its a mlb to replace mitchell, or an OLB to replace bell. i'd rather keep mitchell but that might be out of our hands.

also, solari needs to go. if carl and herm won't pull the trigger, send him on a hunting trip with dick cheny or something. his predictable play calling will be LJ's downfall. he's worse than paul hacket.

and finally, i'm offically on the fire goonther band wagon. he's lost his balls to blitz. a predictable zone ended up being no problem for peyton to decipher.

Woodrow Call
01-08-2007, 03:38 PM
I agree with Mecca on this one. The market for RBs isn't very good right now. When Alexander and James were tagged a couple of years ago no team jumped at the chance to trade for them.

Most teams would rather find a back in the draft or a young back with low mileage. I'd say a 1st would be about all you could hope for.

He is more valuable to the Chiefs then he is to other teams. I would run him till his contract runs out and let him go.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:38 PM
Wow. You'd take one first rounder for Larry Johnson?

I'm glad Mecca isn't running the Chiefs.

Well if I ran the team we'd be run more like the Pats/Eagles so yea I'm sure some people would get upset when I got rid of their favorite players they were attached to.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 03:40 PM
I'd only trade LJ if we could get a deal like the Cowboys got for Herschel Walker.

Frazod
01-08-2007, 03:40 PM
Show me which team will give the Chiefs alot for LJ......

You've got a point. The Giants look like the main contestants. But we should still get more than a single pick.

scott free
01-08-2007, 03:40 PM
1) Keep Gonzalez, he hit his physical peak this year, that means by most standards that he has ATLEAST 2 very good years left, possibly 3. The backend of his contract can be reworked. A HOF'r "born" in KC needs to "die" in KC. That pleases the football gods.

2) I'm sitting the fence with Trent, if he stays & does well up until...say game 8, then its *Huard* or Croyle time......no take backs. DONE
The future starts at that point.

3) I watched Big Will DOMINATE the jax DT's on SEVERAL occassions.
Use the "Jordan Rule"...Shields at 80% is STILL better than the majority.
If he wants back in, i say God Bless'em. Welcome Home Mr. HOF'r.

4) If at ALL possible, keep Downfield Damon.

5) If he can learn to run Top-Shelf routes, Kevin Curtis could be the SINGLE biggest steal of free-agency. Think of a younger & even faster EK with better hands.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:41 PM
I'd only trade LJ if we could get a deal like the Cowboys got for Herschel Walker.

ROFL

Never happen ever......

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 03:42 PM
ROFL

Never happen ever......

That's what he's worth. It happened once, in fact it happened again with the Ricky Williams trade. Who's to say it can't happen again?

This discussion is moot anyway. Carl is smart enough not to let LJ get away.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:42 PM
You've got a point. The Giants look like the main contestants. But we should still get more than a single pick.

And the Giants could simply go hey wait a minute....**** you guys. We can just draft Marshawn Lynch or Michael Bush who are cheaper without near the mileage. See why it's hard to get alot for a high mileage RB? Edge James had to go to Arizona of all places because of this.

dirk digler
01-08-2007, 03:42 PM
I agree with Mecca on this one. The market for RBs isn't very good right now. When Alexander and James were tagged a couple of years ago no team jumped at the chance to trade for them.

Most teams would rather find a back in the draft or a young back with low mileage. I'd say a 1st would be about all you could hope for.

He is more valuable to the Chiefs then he is to other teams. I would run him till his contract runs out and let him go.

yep.

This year is the first year LJ really has had a big work load. I think he has alot of mileage left.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:43 PM
He's more valuable to the Chiefs till he asks for a 20 million dollar signing bonus....

scott free
01-08-2007, 03:44 PM
Show me which team will give the Chiefs alot for LJ......

The Steelers.

Dont give me Willie Parker nonsense either.

LJ is a TRUE Pittsburgh back.

dirk digler
01-08-2007, 03:45 PM
He's more valuable to the Chiefs till he asks for a 20 million dollar signing bonus....

Considering that would be the biggest signing bonus in the NFL ever. I think 10 million would be realistic.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:45 PM
The Steelers.

Dont give me Willie Parker nonsense either.

LJ is a TRUE Pittsburgh back.

Yea Willie Parker really sucks he put up what 1600 and 15 TD's?

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:46 PM
Considering that would be the biggest signing bonus in the NFL ever. I think 10 million would be realistic.

My personal opinion is I'd likely just let him play it out like the Colts did with James and then walk away.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 03:47 PM
OK Mecca, let's say the Giants bite and give Carl their 1st rounder for LJ. You'd be happy with that?

The Chiefs now have the 20th pick in the draft. Who do they pick?

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:49 PM
OK Mecca, let's say the Giants bite and give Carl their 1st rounder for LJ. You'd be happy with that?

The Chiefs now have the 20th pick in the draft. Who do they pick?

I'd take it......I'd take the best players on the board with each pick with the idea that I'll likely need to draft a RB on the first day.

dirk digler
01-08-2007, 03:49 PM
OK Mecca, let's say the Giants bite and give Carl their 1st rounder for LJ. You'd be happy with that?

The Chiefs now have the 20th pick in the draft. Who do they pick?

LMAO

The Giants aren't going to trade for LJ when they already have an LJ clone already in Brandon Jacobs, hell he even wears LJ's number.

I know you are just joking around but it has to be somewhat realistic

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 03:50 PM
I'd take it......I'd take the best players on the board with each pick with the idea that I'll likely need to draft a RB on the first day.

What player. Just throw out five names that are likely to be available at the 20th pick.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:51 PM
LMAO

The Giants aren't going to trade for LJ when they already have an LJ clone already in Brandon Jacobs, hell he even wears LJ's number.

I know you are just joking around but it has to be somewhat realistic

Like I said there aren't many teams that would be interested in trading for him....let alone giving up a first rounder.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:51 PM
What player. Just throw out five names that are likely to be available at the 20th pick.

At that pick? Dwayne Jarrett is my target player as of now....

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 03:52 PM
At that pick? Dwayne Jarrett is my target player as of now....

So you'd trade Larry Johnson for Dwayne Jarrett.

BRILLIANT! LMAO

dirk digler
01-08-2007, 03:53 PM
Trade LJ to the Donkeys because they actually need one and they have an extra 1st round pick

Mecca
01-08-2007, 03:54 PM
So you'd trade Larry Johnson for Dwayne Jarrett.

BRILLIANT! LMAO

Yep........much easier to find a RB than a WR.....how long has it been since we've had a legit WR.....oh yea....

Frazod
01-08-2007, 04:02 PM
Trade LJ to the Donkeys because they actually need one and they have an extra 1st round pick

:spock:

I know it's only January 8, but the idea of trading Johnson TO THE DENVER F#CKING BRONCOS makes you a shoe-in for the 2007 Nuthook-Of-The-Year Award.

Jesus. :shake:

Mecca
01-08-2007, 04:04 PM
:spock:

I know it's only January 8, but the idea of trading Johnson TO THE DENVER F#CKING BRONCOS makes you a shoe-in for the 2007 Nuthook-Of-The-Year Award.

Jesus. :shake:

We aren't close to winning......we need a complete rebuild of our team. If the best offer comes from a division team we should probably take it at this time.

CHIEF4EVER
01-08-2007, 04:06 PM
We aren't close to winning......we need a complete rebuild of our team. If the best offer comes from a division team we should probably take it at this time.

Yea. There's an idea. Trade a franchise RB to the Donks for a prayer. Nice take. :rolleyes:

Guru
01-08-2007, 04:06 PM
Trade LJ to the Donkeys because they actually need one and they have an extra 1st round pick
Why trade Johnson at all. We suck with draft picks anyway. Why do you think Carl lives on free agents?

Johnson and Gonzalez were his only stud picks.

Cave Johnson
01-08-2007, 04:08 PM
5) If he can learn to run Top-Shelf routes, Kevin Curtis could be the SINGLE biggest steal of free-agency. Think of a younger & even faster EK with better hands.

Assuming we don't scrap the Air Coryell offense and move to a WC system (in which Jeff Garcia would probably give us the best chance next year), Curtis would be a great fit. His production last year while Bruce was out was low WR1, high WR2. I'm discounting his performance last year as the Rams offense was nothing close to the Greatest Show on Turf Martz schemes. He's on the old side (will be 29 in July) but would be an excellent value and a huge upgrade from Parker.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 04:10 PM
Yea. There's an idea. Trade a franchise RB to the Donks for a prayer. Nice take. :rolleyes:

I just don't believe a RB who I'm 99% sure is going to have a short shelf life is a "franchise player" he is not going to play here for 10 years. He's not going to be our Tom Brady or Manning or Ray Lewis......or hell even Tomlinson.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 04:10 PM
Mecca's full of shit. Last year you wanted to sign an aging wide receiver.

We're going to have to address WR sooner rather than later. I'd prefer signing Owens so we could use our first round pick on a defensive player.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 04:12 PM
Mecca's full of shit. Last year you wanted to sign an aging wide receiver.

And Owens is still right now 3848430843 times better than any of our WR's. I didn't say you can't sign an aging player.....Owens is still productive and was on a bit of a cheaper play due to his issues.

Like I said build in the draft mix in some FA's, Owens is a suggestion because we are so awful at WR.

CHIEF4EVER
01-08-2007, 04:16 PM
I just don't believe a RB who I'm 99% sure is going to have a short shelf life is a "franchise player" he is not going to play here for 10 years. He's not going to be our Tom Brady or Manning or Ray Lewis......or hell even Tomlinson.

Nah. A 1700+ yard back that we got with the 26th effing pick isn't a franchise player. :rolleyes:

And how do you know how long he will play here? What are you basing that on? Assumption? Miss Cleo whisper to you that he will end his career early? What?! :shake:

Mecca
01-08-2007, 04:17 PM
Ugh.......go look up what generally happens to players with huge carry totals.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 04:17 PM
I didn't say you can't sign an aging player.....

Yet we should trade our IN HIS PRIME playmaker.

Brilliant.

Maybe we should have signed Edgerrin James last offseason so we could trade Larry!!!

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 04:19 PM
Ugh.......go look up what generally happens to players with huge carry totals.

Why do you automatically assume that LJ will suffer the same fate? He's been pounded on for two years and hasn't missed a quarter, let alone a game.

LJ's going to be fine.

CHIEF4EVER
01-08-2007, 04:19 PM
Ugh.......go look up what generally happens to players with huge carry totals.

And what makes you think he will continue to have 400+ carry seasons? Again, pure subjective speculation.

Baby Lee
01-08-2007, 04:20 PM
he's lost his balls to blitz. a predictable zone ended up being no problem for peyton to decipher.
Yeah, if by decipher you mean, fall apart in the red zone, give up 3 picks, then open up Herm's, run, run, run . . . run, gameplan for some TDs when the D was gassed from a 21-9 1st half TOP disparity.

ROFL ROFL

Mecca
01-08-2007, 04:20 PM
Yet we should trade our IN HIS PRIME playmaker.

Brilliant.

Maybe we should have signed Edgerrin James last offseason so we could trade Larry!!!

God damn you're stupid......a WR and a RB are not the same ****ing thing. There's a reason Harrison and Wayne got extensions and they walked on James. Arguing with you is pointless you'll go into some ridiculous comparison that makes no sense.....

How does a RB that just broke the carry record when history shows that is very bad for longevity in anyway comparable to a player that doesn't play the same position?

scott free
01-08-2007, 04:24 PM
Yea Willie Parker really sucks he put up what 1600 and 15 TD's?

Willie, for all of his success, fits into our system more than pitts. Its Pittsburgh, Franco, Rocky, Jerome gritty, punishing runners. LJ fits that bill to the very T.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 04:24 PM
I'm stupid? You're the one that would rather have Dwayne Jarrett on the team than Larry Johnson.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 04:25 PM
And what makes you think he will continue to have 400+ carry seasons? Again, pure subjective speculation.

It doesn't take multiple it takes 1.....let me pull up all these articles for you....

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=155614&highlight=alexander

All season long, when talking about Shaun Alexander’s problems, you’ve seen us refer to the “Curse of 370.” You’ve also seen that term as we tracked Larry Johnson’s high number of carries all season long. Now that Johnson has set the NFL record with 416 carries in the regular season, the “Curse of 370″ is showing up in everything written by Football Outsiders.

We wanted to help those who were new to our site understand the Curse of 370, which is something we’ve been writing about for three years. The first article about 370 carries appeared in the book Pro Football Forecast 2004, and was also published on our site when Ricky Williams retired in July 2004. You’ll find that article here. A sequel article appeared in the Seattle chapter of Pro Football Prospectus 2006, and it is republished in its entirety below.

Just so people understand, there’s nothing magical about carry number 370 that makes a running back blow out his ACL, any more than there is something special about pitch 100 that makes a pitcher’s arm fall off. It’s simply a useful shorthand to represent the fact that overworking your running back with too many carries is a bad thing. The punishment gets worse and worse with more carries, and 370 is a close approximation of the tipping point.



Since we began doing football research a few years ago, we’ve developed a number of axioms that tend to come up over and over again, both on our Web site and in Pro Football Prospectus. With both Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James entering free agency this off-season, one precept in particular got a lot of attention: the 370-carry theory.

The 370-carry theory is generally summarized as follows: “A running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson.”

Some recent examples of the 370-carry theory in action include Curtis Martin’s collapse last year [i.e. 2005], Jamal Lewis’s struggles for the last two years, and Ricky Williams falling from 4.8 yards per carry in 2002 to 3.5 yards per carry in 2003. Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson, and James each tore his ACL a year after going over 370 carries. The 370-carry barrier helped destroy the careers of Earl Campbell, Barry Foster, and Gerald Riggs.

But when looking at the question of how much to pay Alexander and James this off-season, the 370-carry theory seemed a bit limited. Why should a running back like James, who is used so much in the passing game, have his workload be defined solely by carries without considering receptions? And why should our count end before the playoffs, when Alexander added another 20 carries per game through the Super Bowl?

Let’s examine each question in turn. The first issue is whether “touches” are a better measure of workload than carries, with touches equaling the total of each back’s carries and receptions for a given year. From 1978 through 2004, 60 running backs had seasons of at least 340 carries. Comparing the number of carries for each running back with the number of yards he gained the following year gives us a correlation coefficient of -.24. In other words, as players carry the ball more, they are less likely to run for as many yards the following year, due to a mixture of lost effectiveness and injury. If we want to measure only effectiveness (yards per carry) or playing time (total carries) the correlations are similar.

If we take the same 60 running backs and compare touches to yards the following year, the correlations are roughly half as large. This suggests that carries are a better indicator of workload than touches. Compare just receptions to rushing yards the following year, not even considering carries, and it is clear why: the correlation between receptions and yards the following year is actually positive, albeit tiny. If more receptions indicate anything, it is that a player will gain more yards the following year, in particular more yards per carry.
Correlation between running back usage and
year-to-year improvement or decline, 1978-2005

Minimum 340 carries (60 players)
Year-to-year change in… Yards Yd/Car Carries
Carries -.24 -.25 -.22
Touches -.12 -.09 -.13
Receptions .06 .12 .02

Minimum 300 carries and 25 receptions (121 players)
Year-to-year change in… Yards Yd/Car Carries
Carries -.17 -.05 -.14
Touches -.06 .00 -.03
Receptions .20 .10 .22

Using a larger sample of players not only gives the same result, but makes the correlation between receptions and improvement in rushing yardage more significant. 121 players between 1978 and 2004 had 300 or more carries and 25 or more receptions. For these running backs, the correlation between carries and rushing yardage the next year was -.17, but the correlation between receptions and rushing yardage the next year was .20. That’s two relationships of similar strength in opposite directions.

(The reaction of most statisticians at this point would be that these correlations are extremely small. This is simply a fact of life when talking about the NFL, where so many factors contribute to a player or team’s performance — many of them intangible — that no one factor will have a particularly large impact on its own.)

So if more receptions don’t mean a greater chance of breakdown the following year, what about playoff carries?

This is where we have bad news for Seattle fans. It does look like postseason carries matter, with 390 carries total forming a barrier equivalent to 370 regular-season carries. Above that line, a number of players were either injured or lost effectiveness. And while Shaun Alexander just barely touched the 370-carry barrier, he flew past 390 carries once the Seahawks got into the postseason, ending the playoffs with 430 carries total.

Not counting Alexander, there have been 14 players who did not reach 370 carries in the regular season, but surpassed 390 carries during the postseason. Though some of these players continued to play well the next season and even afterwards, a number of them had major difficulties.

Terrell Davis (1997): 369 carries, 481 including the postseason. The latter total is an NFL record. Davis was spectacular again in 1998, but that season’s total of 392 regular-season carries basically ended his career.

Eddie George (1999): 320 carries, 428 including the postseason. He fell from 4.1 to 3.7 yards per carry in 2000, and after 403 regular-season carries he was never again an effective player.

Curtis Martin (1998): 369 carries, 418 including the postseason. Martin saw no ill effects; 1998 was actually his worst year until 2005.

Thurman Thomas (1993): 355 carries, 418 including the postseason. Thomas continued to play well but never again was able to carry the ball 300 times in a season.

Joe Morris (1986): 341 carries, 414 including the postseason. The following year Morris plummeted from 4.4 to 3.4 yards per carry. By 1989, his career was over due to nerve damage and broken bones in his feet, except for a short-lived comeback with the 1991 Browns.

Jamal Lewis (2000): 309 carries, 412 including the postseason. 103 postseason carries is the third-highest total in history, and Lewis tore his ACL the next year.

Corey Dillon (2005): 345 carries, 410 including the postseason. Fell from 4.7 to 3.5 yards per carry and only managed 12 games due to injuries.

Emmitt Smith (1991): 365 carries, 406 including the postseason. No ill effects.

Ahman Green (2003): 355 carries, 403 including the postseason. Dropped from 5.3 yards per carry in 2003 to 4.5 yards per carry in 2004 and then 3.3 yards per carry in 2005, when he missed 11 games because of injuries.

Earl Campbell (1979): 368 carries, 401 including the postseason. Improved in 1980, when another heavy workload cost him most of his effectiveness in 1981 and beyond.

Natrone Means (1994): 343 carries, 400 including the postseason. Only played 10 games the following year due to injuries, never again played a full season, and retired in 2000 at the age of 28.

Dorsey Levens (1997): 329 carries, 400 including the postseason. Only played seven games in 1998, never again had 100 carries in a season after 1999, didn’t average four yards per carry again until 2002.

Curt Warner (1983): 335 carries, 395 including the postseason. Blew out his knee during the first game of 1984 and was out for the season.

Emmitt Smith (1994): 368 carries, 395 including the postseason. Had his best season in 1995, then declined after that.

To summarize, eight of these 14 players were injured or lost effectiveness the following season. A ninth, Thomas, was still effective and healthy, but lost stamina. Three players, Davis, Campbell, and Smith (1994) had problems two seasons later, after another year of overuse. Only two of these players, Martin and Smith (1991) seemed to have no ill effects for multiple seasons afterwards.

On average, running backs with 300 to 369 carries who do not play in the postseason will see total yards drop by 15 percent the following year, and yards per carry by just two percent. But the 14 players listed above averaged a 27 percent drop in total yards, and a 10 percent drop in yards per carry.

All players with 390 or more carries, no matter how these carries were split between the regular season and the postseason, averaged a 33 percent drop in total yards, and an 11 percent drop in yards per carry.

Alexander’s total of 430 carries between the regular season and the postseason ranks sixth in NFL history, and no other running back last year reached 390 carries combined. Only three other running backs were above 350 carries combined: Clinton Portis (385), Edgerrin James (373), and Tiki Barber (370).

So chalk up another reason to believe that Alexander will decline this year, to go with the Madden Curse, the departure of Steve Hutchinson, and plain old regression to the mean. The Seahawks can live with a little decline — because Alexander played at such a high level last year, a little decline would still leave one of the top running backs in football. What the Seahawks have to worry about is that other problem with overuse: increased chance of injury. If Alexander is hurting and Maurice Morris is starting come midseason, that new contract with $15.1 million in guaranteed bonus and salary for 2006 won’t look like such a good decision.

posted 1-1-2007 at 10:24 PM by Aaron Schatz || Stat Analysis

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/20...-analysis/4764/
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http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=155271&highlight=jamal+anderson

Random note: Congrats to Herm Edwards for turning Larry Johnson into the modern-day Earl Campbell. Four hundred carries in one season?!?!?!?!?!?!?? Did you know he's 27 carries away from breaking Jamal Anderson's record of 410? Here's how many carries Jamal had the following season: 19. I can't get over this. Let's say John Gibbons switched to a four-man rotation this spring and Roy Halladay cracked the 300-inning mark by Labor Day. Would an hour go by without somebody on "Baseball Tonight" or ESPN.com or Baseball Prospectus mentioning how absolutely insane this was? Meanwhile, we have Herm running poor LJ into the ground and everything's cool. Even if they end up making the playoffs, he's going to be a carcass by mid-January. Ridiculous. Why does this stuff make me so angry?

Speaking of Madden, I've had multiple readers imploring me to start a "Save Tomlinson from appearing on the Madden 2008 cover" campaign. Intriguing. Part of me wants to save him; part of me can't forgive him for stealing Lawrence Taylor's nickname and boning me over in my fantasy title game last week. Couldn't we just convince EA Sports to stick Larry Johnson on there? We already know he's breaking down next season. He's the logical guy. It even could be a picture of LJ being tackled by nine guys as Herm Edwards looks on nonchalantly in the background.

MahiMike
01-08-2007, 04:26 PM
Nice post. I like it. I have a feeling that everyone on the offensive side of the ball will be scrambling to leave. Won't even need to worry about cutting them...

Mecca
01-08-2007, 04:26 PM
I'm stupid? You're the one that would rather have Dwayne Jarrett on the team than Larry Johnson.

I said I don't want Larry Johnson if he starts asking for a big money extension that is where the trade debate from me came from. If he continues to play under the same contract fine....But I'm against giving him a new deal.

suds79
01-08-2007, 04:28 PM
God damn you're stupid......a WR and a RB are not the same ****ing thing. There's a reason Harrison and Wayne got extensions and they walked on James. Arguing with you is pointless you'll go into some ridiculous comparison that makes no sense.....

How does a RB that just broke the carry record when history shows that is very bad for longevity in anyway comparable to a player that doesn't play the same position?

Hey man don't even waste your time trying to explain to people that trading Larry right now is a good idea while his value is sky high (same goes for giving him a big contact extension).

I got pretty much flamed last night because people can't take the homer glasses off.

I guess they think Larry will be running this way well into his mid 30s.
:shake:

CHIEF4EVER
01-08-2007, 04:32 PM
Your article still doean't explain why you think that he will CONTINUE to get 400+ carries. What makes you think (snickering as I type this) the offensive philosophy won't change to more balance thus giving LJ fewer carries? We just don't know at this point but 1 thing is certain......trading LJ to ANYONE, especially a frickin division rival is retarded beyond comprehension.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 04:36 PM
None of those guys saw 400 carries more than 1 time.....it doesn't take more than 1 year for it to have a severe affect. Most of them never played a full season again.

CHIEF4EVER
01-08-2007, 04:59 PM
None of those guys saw 400 carries more than 1 time.....it doesn't take more than 1 year for it to have a severe affect. Most of them never played a full season again.

Ummmmmm....not true.

Terrell Davis (1997): 369 carries, 481 including the postseason. The latter total is an NFL record. Davis was spectacular again in 1998

Eddie George (1999): 320 carries, 428 including the postseason. He fell from 4.1 to 3.7 yards per carry in 2000, and after 403 regular-season carries he was never again an effective player.



Curtis Martin (1998): 369 carries, 418 including the postseason. Martin saw no ill effects; 1998 was actually his worst year until 2005.



Thurman Thomas (1993): 355 carries, 418 including the postseason. Thomas continued to play well but never again was able to carry the ball 300 times in a season.


Jamal Lewis (2000): 309 carries, 412 including the postseason. 103 postseason carries is the third-highest total in history, and Lewis tore his ACL the next year.

Corey Dillon (2005): 345 carries, 410 including the postseason. Fell from 4.7 to 3.5 yards per carry and only managed 12 games due to injuries.


Both still playing, in the playoffs and effective.

Emmitt Smith (1991): 365 carries, 406 including the postseason. No ill effects.(1994): 368 carries, 395 including the postseason. Had his best season in 1995, then declined after that.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 05:02 PM
Remember those are the stats that are including playoff carries.....if you take the ones from just regular season 400 carriers it's much more bleak.

Jamal Lewis isn't even half of what he once was either.....if LJ ever turns into that people will cry. He'll be a big lug with no speed or moves that's what Lewis is now.

CHIEF4EVER
01-08-2007, 05:05 PM
Remember those are the stats that are including playoff carries.....if you take the ones from just regular season 400 carriers it's much more bleak.

Your contention was that it takes only one season and the empirical evidence doesn't bear that out. Don't backtrack now Mecca.

Chief Henry
01-08-2007, 05:07 PM
Hard and painful decisions need to be made.

1. King Carl needs to resign as GM and stay on as CEO/El Presidente. Not going to happen but it's what should happen.

2. Don't re-sign Tony G. Pains me to say that. I love Tony G but one of the reason why the Pats have been successful has been their willingness to let long time older players go instead of giving them a nice big end of the career contract. We have too many holes to fill and he's only got 1-2 productive years left but he will get paid for 5-6 years. See where I spend his money below.

3. Re-sign Jared Allen. Give him some money to hire a limo or pay for a cab.

4. Re-sign Jimmy Wilkerson. Should be a "cheap" resignee and he has a lot of upside.

5. Give LJ some more money. Maybe we could get a 1st and 3rd for him but maybe not. And if we did get that we would still have King Carl picking those draft picks. I'll take the sure thing with LJ over a gamble of King Carl draft picks.

6. Trade Trent Green to Washington for draft picks. Whatever we can get. Fire Sale prices if needed. I love Trent for what he has done for KC but its time to move on.

7. Keep Ty Law and pay him the roster bonus. We need big time playmakers with big game experience. He's the only one we got right now.

8. Resign Huard as the stopgap starting QB. Going on the assumption/rumors that I hear that Herm believes that Croyle really is the QOTF. And Herm is in charge of that part of the team.

9. Shields needs to retire. I don't want to see this legends skills erode any further. I want to remember him pancaking Ray-Ray.

10. Release Dante Hall. He has given me a lot of great memories but that is all we will ever have in the future from Dante is those memories. He has lost his burst.

11. Release Priest Holmes. For 3 years he gave us such joy. We don't need to see a public fight and all that goes with it. King Carl just needs to let him keep his signing bonus money.

12. Pay money for the top LT on the FA market.

13. Pay money for the top DT on the FA market.

14. Pay money for the top WR on the FA market. We pay for these 3 FA's with the cap money not being paid next year to Roaf, Shields, Sims, Hicks, Knight, Holmes, Hall, Bell, Mitchell, Green and Gonzalez.

15. Draft DT, OT, OG and WR. Whenever you pick take the best one of those positions that are available.

16. Let Ryan Sims and Kawika Mitchell go. Release Knight, Hicks, Hall, Bartee and Bell.

Herm gets more than one year. He gets to pick his coaches. Hopefully he realizes the predictability of the play calling and gets it changed.



BRC,

I like your idea's except for letting go Kawika Mitchell. I would keep him around. He's just now coming into his own, plus it appears to me he is a
very good presence in the locker room.

Mecca
01-08-2007, 05:10 PM
BRC,

I like your idea's except for letting go Kawika Mitchell. I would keep him around. He's just now coming into his own, plus it appears to me he is a
very good presence in the locker room.

He's such a good presense that the other players don't respect him...

siberian khatru
01-08-2007, 05:36 PM
BRC,

I like your idea's except for letting go Kawika Mitchell. I would keep him around. He's just now coming into his own, plus it appears to me he is a
very good presence in the locker room.

That reminds me ... since we very well could start next season 1-3, we really need to keep Eric Hicks around. He's the kind of player who can handle 1-3.

chiefsfan1963
01-08-2007, 05:38 PM
Hard and painful decisions need to be made.

1. King Carl needs to resign as GM and stay on as CEO/El Presidente. Not going to happen but it's what should happen.

2. Don't re-sign Tony G. Pains me to say that. I love Tony G but one of the reason why the Pats have been successful has been their willingness to let long time older players go instead of giving them a nice big end of the career contract. We have too many holes to fill and he's only got 1-2 productive years left but he will get paid for 5-6 years. See where I spend his money below.

3. Re-sign Jared Allen. Give him some money to hire a limo or pay for a cab.

4. Re-sign Jimmy Wilkerson. Should be a "cheap" resignee and he has a lot of upside.

5. Give LJ some more money. Maybe we could get a 1st and 3rd for him but maybe not. And if we did get that we would still have King Carl picking those draft picks. I'll take the sure thing with LJ over a gamble of King Carl draft picks.

6. Trade Trent Green to Washington for draft picks. Whatever we can get. Fire Sale prices if needed. I love Trent for what he has done for KC but its time to move on.

7. Keep Ty Law and pay him the roster bonus. We need big time playmakers with big game experience. He's the only one we got right now.

8. Resign Huard as the stopgap starting QB. Going on the assumption/rumors that I hear that Herm believes that Croyle really is the QOTF. And Herm is in charge of that part of the team.

9. Shields needs to retire. I don't want to see this legends skills erode any further. I want to remember him pancaking Ray-Ray.

10. Release Dante Hall. He has given me a lot of great memories but that is all we will ever have in the future from Dante is those memories. He has lost his burst.

11. Release Priest Holmes. For 3 years he gave us such joy. We don't need to see a public fight and all that goes with it. King Carl just needs to let him keep his signing bonus money.

12. Pay money for the top LT on the FA market.

13. Pay money for the top DT on the FA market.

14. Pay money for the top WR on the FA market. We pay for these 3 FA's with the cap money not being paid next year to Roaf, Shields, Sims, Hicks, Knight, Holmes, Hall, Bell, Mitchell, Green and Gonzalez.

15. Draft DT, OT, OG and WR. Whenever you pick take the best one of those positions that are available.

16. Let Ryan Sims and Kawika Mitchell go. Release Knight, Hicks, Hall, Bartee and Bell.

Herm gets more than one year. He gets to pick his coaches. Hopefully he realizes the predictability of the play calling and gets it changed.


Absolutely right on with your recommendations! :clap:

CanadaKC
01-08-2007, 05:48 PM
The only positive thing about the pathetic loss was that Carl has finally lost the "perception" agenda he's been hammering down our collective throats all these years. The players have joined the fans in saying enough is enough with the bad coaching, bad FA signings, terrible drafting, and most importantly...making the coach tow the party line on spinning negatives to positives (Herm already does a good job of that on his own). Things will now change...because Gonzo and LJ are willing to lay it on the line regarding the organization's mishandling of a lot of issues. The walls are crumbling down now...the coup has begun...

DaneMcCloud
01-08-2007, 06:31 PM
Why trade Johnson at all. We suck with draft picks anyway. Why do you think Carl lives on free agents?

Johnson and Gonzalez were his only stud picks.

Yeah, Derrick Thomas, Donnie Edwards, Jerome Woods, Jared Allen, Joe Horn, Will Shields - all those guys suck and weren't studs. :rolleyes:

CanadaKC
01-08-2007, 06:56 PM
Ryan Simms, Sylvester Morris, Victor Riley, John Tait, Junior Savaii...
shall I go on?

DaneMcCloud
01-08-2007, 07:06 PM
Ryan Simms, Sylvester Morris, Victor Riley, John Tait, Junior Savaii...
shall I go on?

I'm in no way defending Peterson's poor draft history but it IS stupid to say that he's only drafted TWO stud players? Please.

And last I checked, Tait's starting for the 13-3 Chicago Bears, Riley was fairly productive after his four years in KC and Sly Mo NEVER got a chance to realize any potential he may have had due to injury.

chop
01-08-2007, 07:13 PM
Since everyone is discussing trading away LJ, why not trade him to Detroit for Roy Williams and their #1 draft pick.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 07:14 PM
Since everyone is discussing trading away LJ, why not trade him to Detroit for Roy Williams and their #1 draft pick.

Detroit wouldn't do that. They have a RB.

Frazod
01-08-2007, 07:18 PM
Detroit wouldn't do that. They have a RB.

They also have Matt Millen. Carl can use the Jedi mind trick on him. :D

chop
01-08-2007, 07:19 PM
Detroit wouldn't do that. They have a RB.

It still is uncertain if he is going to return next year. If he does I don't think he will be recovered enough from the injury to really do much of anything. Plus LJ is an upgrade to KJ, IMO.

Count Zarth
01-08-2007, 07:20 PM
It still is uncertain if he is going to return next year. If he does I don't think he will be recovered enough from the injury to really do much of anything. Plus LJ is an upgrade to KJ, IMO.

Obviously, but is the difference between KJ and LJ that huge that you'd give up Roy Williams and a #1? I wouldn't.

And yes, Mecca, that DOES mean I'd rather have KJ and Roy Williams than just LJ.

chop
01-08-2007, 07:23 PM
Obviously, but is the difference between KJ and LJ that huge that you'd give up Roy Williams and a #1? I wouldn't.

And yes, Mecca, that DOES mean I'd rather have KJ and Roy Williams than just LJ.

OK, swap first round picks and get their 2nd.

scott free
01-08-2007, 07:48 PM
Hey man don't even waste your time trying to explain to people that trading Larry right now is a good idea while his value is sky high (same goes for giving him a big contact extension).

I got pretty much flamed last night because people can't take the homer glasses off.

I guess they think Larry will be running this way well into his mid 30s.
:shake:

Negative, LJ has played a Grand Total of 1 1/2 years of football, which gives him 3 1/2 more years of hide the kids performances.

This guy is FAR from washed up & we WILL ride him to the SB before its over.

Quit throwing around meaningless "homer glass" bullshit, the guy has years left. Think what you want , but you will rue the day he comes back to play KC if your plan happens.

crazycoffey
01-08-2007, 07:59 PM
Trading LJ is the worst possible thing this franchise could do.

A big part of my agrees with you, but look at history denver trading CP was good for them, and Years ago, dallas traded Herschel Walker, that worked out pretty good for them too, real good.

That may be A POSSIBLE solution, I could live with it for the right price.

BigRedChief
01-09-2007, 06:42 AM
BRC,

I like your idea's except for letting go Kawika Mitchell. I would keep him around. He's just now coming into his own, plus it appears to me he is a
very good presence in the locker room.
Well he made the list because he's going to want too much money this off season and we need to spend it on a LT, DT and WR. We have too many holes.

Count Zarth
08-19-2007, 03:33 AM
I'd consider it but remind me again around June, I'll forget if I make a bet this early before the next season.

Well, Mecca? We still game?

TEX
08-19-2007, 08:32 AM
A big part of my agrees with you, but look at history denver trading CP was good for them, and Years ago, dallas traded Herschel Walker, that worked out pretty good for them too, real good.

That may be A POSSIBLE solution, I could live with it for the right price.

Was it? Their Offense has never been the same. Oh - they can trow out stats that show that they have still managed the same # of total yards and all, but they've been searching for a break-away RB ever since...

BigRedChief
08-19-2007, 09:35 AM
Hard and painful decisions need to be made.

1. King Carl needs to resign as GM and stay on as CEO/El Presidente. Not going to happen but it's what should happen.

2. Don't re-sign Tony G. Pains me to say that. I love Tony G but one of the reason why the Pats have been successful has been their willingness to let long time older players go instead of giving them a nice big end of the career contract. We have too many holes to fill and he's only got 1-2 productive years left but he will get paid for 5-6 years. See where I spend his money below.

3. Re-sign Jared Allen. Give him some money to hire a limo or pay for a cab.

4. Re-sign Jimmy Wilkerson. Should be a "cheap" resignee and he has a lot of upside.

5. Give LJ some more money. Maybe we could get a 1st and 3rd for him but maybe not. And if we did get that we would still have King Carl picking those draft picks. I'll take the sure thing with LJ over a gamble of King Carl draft picks.

6. Trade Trent Green to Washington for draft picks. Whatever we can get. Fire Sale prices if needed. I love Trent for what he has done for KC but its time to move on.

7. Keep Ty Law and pay him the roster bonus. We need big time playmakers with big game experience. He's the only one we got right now.

8. Resign Huard as the stopgap starting QB. Going on the assumption/rumors that I hear that Herm believes that Croyle really is the QOTF. And Herm is in charge of that part of the team.

9. Shields needs to retire. I don't want to see this legends skills erode any further. I want to remember him pancaking Ray-Ray.

10. Release Dante Hall. He has given me a lot of great memories but that is all we will ever have in the future from Dante is those memories. He has lost his burst.

11. Release Priest Holmes. For 3 years he gave us such joy. We don't need to see a public fight and all that goes with it. King Carl just needs to let him keep his signing bonus money.

12. Pay money for the top LT on the FA market.

13. Pay money for the top DT on the FA market.

14. Pay money for the top WR on the FA market. We pay for these 3 FA's with the cap money not being paid next year to Roaf, Shields, Sims, Hicks, Knight, Holmes, Hall, Bell, Mitchell, Green and Gonzalez.

15. Draft DT, OT, OG and WR. Whenever you pick take the best one of those positions that are available.

16. Let Ryan Sims and Kawika Mitchell go. Release Knight, Hicks, Hall, Bartee and Bell.

Herm gets more than one year. He gets to pick his coaches. Hopefully he realizes the predictability of the play calling and gets it changed.
Holy crap who pulled this out of the archives?

milkman
08-19-2007, 09:38 AM
Holy crap who pulled this out of the archives?

Holy crap, did you have to quote your thread stater to ask this question?

BigRedChief
08-19-2007, 10:42 AM
Holy crap, did you have to quote your thread stater to ask this question?
http://www.forumspile.com/Care-Where_in_the_world.jpg

milkman
08-19-2007, 11:16 AM
http://www.forumspile.com/Care-Where_in_the_world.jpg

Thanks for the geography lesson.

Direckshun
08-19-2007, 11:17 AM
This list was, for the most part, a no-duh list.

I'm very surprised Carl actually followed through, though.