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View Full Version : SUPERSTARS coming out of the draft.


mcan
02-15-2007, 09:52 PM
The NFL draft is a lotto. But how much of a risk is there? Are early round draft picks overvalued? Is the "points" system that NFL teams use to rank draft picks a reasonable system? How good does a player have to be to be traded for a certain draft pick? All these questions and more.... Coming up.


We'll take our "data" from the 1997 draft. That's 10 years to evaluate the players and see how they did. We're going to pick out probowlers and potential "hall of famers" and see if the distribution of those players is weighted to the first day. From there, we will look at players who are still active, and see if that distribution is weighted. After we have all of our data, we should be able to ascertain an expected value for each draft slot, and compare that value objectively to the value of a single active player. We'll not take into account injuries, since any player is presumably equally likely to be injured and the low round injuries should theoretically wash out the high round injuries.

Deberg_1990
02-15-2007, 09:56 PM
I recently read on CNNSI that almost every offensive player in 1st round of the 2002 draft was a bust for his original team.


The draft is nothing but a huge crap shoot...

mcan
02-15-2007, 10:23 PM
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
1 St. Louis Orlando Pace T Ohio State
2 Oakland Darrell Russell DT Southern California
3 Seattle Shawn Springs CB Ohio State
4 Baltimore Peter Boulware OLB Florida State
5 Detroit Bryant Westbrook CB Texas
6 Seattle Walter Jones T Florida State
7 N.Y. Giants Ike Hilliard WR Florida
8 N.Y. Jets James Farrior ILB Virginia
9 Arizona Tommy Knight CB Iowa
10 New Orleans Chris Naeole G Colorado
11 Atlanta Michael Booker CB Nebraska
12 Tampa Bay Warrick Dunn RB Florida State
13 Kansas City Tony Gonzalez TE California
14 Cincinnati Reinard Wilson DE Florida State
15 Miami Yatil Green WR Miami
16 Tampa Bay Reidel Anthony WR Florida
17 Washington Kenard Lang DE Miami
18 Tennessee Kenny Holmes DE Miami
19 Indianapolis Tarik Glenn T California
20 Minnesota Dwayne Rudd OLB Alabama
21 Jacksonville Renaldo Wynn DE Notre Dame
22 Dallas David LaFleur TE Louisiana State
23 Buffalo Antowain Smith RB Houston
24 Pittsburgh Chad Scott CB Maryland
25 Philadelphia Jon Harris DE Virginia
26 San Francisco Jim Druckenmiller QB Virginia Tech
27 Carolina Rae Carruth WR Colorado
28 Denver Trevor Pryce DE Clemson
29 New England Chris Canty CB Kansas State
30 Green Bay Ross Verba T Iowa

Potential HOF 3/30
Probowler 10/30

Picks 1-5
HOF 1/5
Probowler 4/5

Picks 6-10
HOF 1/5
Probowler 2/5

Picks 11-15
HOF 1/5
Probowler 2/5

Picks 16-20
Probowler 1/5

Picks 21-25
Probowler 0/5

Picks 26-30
Prowbowler 1/5


Looks like we have a pretty linear curve here. It seems that a top 5 pick has an 80% chance of being a probowler...

Deberg_1990
02-15-2007, 10:27 PM
Ike Hilliard, Yatil Green and Reidel Anthony, Rae (Jailbird) Carruth and Jim Druckenmiller....HAHAHAHAHA

Baconeater
02-15-2007, 10:29 PM
27 Carolina Rae Carruth WR Colorado
Heh, nice pick.

mcan
02-15-2007, 10:44 PM
Round 2
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
31 N.Y. Jets Rick Terry DT North Carolina
32 Atlanta Nathan Davis DE Indiana
33 New Orleans Rob Kelly FS Ohio State
34 Baltimore Jamie Sharper OLB Virginia
35 Detroit Juan Roque G Arizona State
36 N.Y. Giants Tiki Barber RB Virginia
37 Tampa Bay Jerry Wunsch G Wisconsin
38 Chicago John Allred TE Southern California
39 New Orleans Jared Tomich DE Nebraska
40 St. Louis Dexter McCleon CB Clemson
41 Atlanta Byron Hanspard RB Texas Tech
42 Arizona Jake Plummer QB Arizona State
43 Cincinnati Corey Dillon RB Washington
44 Miami Sam Madison CB Louisville
45 San Diego Freddie Jones TE North Carolina
46 Tennessee Joey Kent WR Tennessee
47 Kansas City Kevin Lockett WR Kansas State
48 Indianapolis Adam Meadows T Georgia
49 Minnesota Torrian Gray DB Virginia Tech
50 Jacksonville Mike Logan FS West Virginia
51 Washington Greg Jones OLB Colorado
52 Buffalo Marcellus Wiley DE Columbia
53 Pittsburgh Will Blackwell WR San Diego State
54 Detroit Kevin Abrams CB Syracuse
55 San Francisco Marc Edwards FB Notre Dame
56 Carolina Mike Minter FS Nebraska
57 Philadelphia James Darling MLB Washington State
58 Baltimore Kim Herring S Penn State
59 New England Brandon Mitchell DE Texas A&M
60 Green Bay Darren Sharper FS William & Mary


Pretty big drop-off already. Only 6/30 are probowlers. A lot of no-names. Only Corey Dillon would be viewed as a world class player here, and there isn't any reasonable person that thinks he's a future HOFer.

mcan
02-15-2007, 10:45 PM
I'm already sick of doing this. It wouldn't be so bad, if there was a simple way to find all of these guys' profiles and a list of their probowls... But, no such luck. The draft site doesn't link to anybody, and the NFL profiles don't list probowl appearances. I have to use Wikipedia, and it sucks that most of the obscure guys aren't on there.

Reaper16
02-15-2007, 10:59 PM
Round 2
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
31 N.Y. Jets Rick Terry DT North Carolina
32 Atlanta Nathan Davis DE Indiana
33 New Orleans Rob Kelly FS Ohio State
34 Baltimore Jamie Sharper OLB Virginia
35 Detroit Juan Roque G Arizona State
36 N.Y. Giants Tiki Barber RB Virginia
37 Tampa Bay Jerry Wunsch G Wisconsin
38 Chicago John Allred TE Southern California
39 New Orleans Jared Tomich DE Nebraska
40 St. Louis Dexter McCleon CB Clemson
41 Atlanta Byron Hanspard RB Texas Tech
42 Arizona Jake Plummer QB Arizona State
43 Cincinnati Corey Dillon RB Washington
44 Miami Sam Madison CB Louisville
45 San Diego Freddie Jones TE North Carolina
46 Tennessee Joey Kent WR Tennessee
47 Kansas City Kevin Lockett WR Kansas State
48 Indianapolis Adam Meadows T Georgia
49 Minnesota Torrian Gray DB Virginia Tech
50 Jacksonville Mike Logan FS West Virginia
51 Washington Greg Jones OLB Colorado
52 Buffalo Marcellus Wiley DE Columbia
53 Pittsburgh Will Blackwell WR San Diego State
54 Detroit Kevin Abrams CB Syracuse
55 San Francisco Marc Edwards FB Notre Dame
56 Carolina Mike Minter FS Nebraska
57 Philadelphia James Darling MLB Washington State
58 Baltimore Kim Herring S Penn State
59 New England Brandon Mitchell DE Texas A&M
60 Green Bay Darren Sharper FS William & Mary


Pretty big drop-off already. Only 6/30 are probowlers. A lot of no-names. Only Corey Dillon would be viewed as a world class player here, and there isn't any reasonable person that thinks he's a future HOFer.
Tiki Barber isn't world class?

Ultra Peanut
02-15-2007, 11:38 PM
Druck was practically a savior for the Maniax once Rashaan Salaam went down, you assholes.

Thig Lyfe
02-16-2007, 12:11 AM
Druck was practically a savior for the Maniax once Rashaan Salaam went down, you assholes.

I was really disappointed in Las Vegas that year. I thought He Hate Me would definitely carry them.

HMc
02-16-2007, 01:05 AM
61 New England Sedrick Shaw RB Iowa
62 New Orleans Troy Davis RB Iowa State
63 Tampa Bay Frank Middleton G Arizona
64 Baltimore Jay Graham RB Tennessee
65 Dallas Dexter Coakley OLB Appalachian State
66 Tampa Bay Ronde Barber CB Virginia
67 Denver Dan Neil G Texas
68 N.Y. Giants Ryan Phillips OLB Idaho
69 Chicago Bob Sapp T Washington
70 Atlanta O.J. Santiago TE Kent State
71 Philadelphia Duce Staley RB South Carolina
72 Oakland Adam Treu C Nebraska
73 Miami Jason Taylor DE Akron
74 San Diego Michael Hamilton LB North Carolina A&T
75 Tennessee Denard Walker CB Louisiana State
76 Cincinnati Rod Payne C Michigan
77 San Francisco Greg Clark TE Stanford
78 Minnesota Stalin Colinet DE Boston College
79 Jacksonville James Hamilton LB North Carolina
80 Washington Derek Smith ILB Arizona State
81 Tennessee Scott Sanderson T Washington State
82 Pittsburgh Paul Wiggins T Oregon
83 Dallas Steve Scifres T Wyoming
84 Arizona Ty Howard CB Ohio State
85 Oakland Tim Kohn G Iowa State
86 Indianapolis Bert Berry DE Notre Dame
87 Carolina Kinnon Tatum LB Notre Dame
88 N.Y. Jets Dedric Ward WR Northern Iowa
89 New England Chris Carter FS Texas
90 Green Bay Brett Conway K Penn State
91 Pittsburgh Mike Vrabel OLB Ohio State
92 Miami Derrick Rodgers OLB Arizona State
93 Miami Ronnie Ward LB Kansas
94 Dallas Kenny Wheaton DB Oregon
95 N.Y. Giants Brad Maynard P Ball State
96 Miami Brent Smith G Mississippi State

HMc
02-16-2007, 01:07 AM
Betrand Barry, Mike Vrabel, Ronde Barber.

HolmeZz
02-16-2007, 01:08 AM
Round 2
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
31 N.Y. Jets Rick Terry DT North Carolina
32 Atlanta Nathan Davis DE Indiana
33 New Orleans Rob Kelly FS Ohio State
34 Baltimore Jamie Sharper OLB Virginia
35 Detroit Juan Roque G Arizona State
36 N.Y. Giants Tiki Barber RB Virginia
37 Tampa Bay Jerry Wunsch G Wisconsin
38 Chicago John Allred TE Southern California
39 New Orleans Jared Tomich DE Nebraska
40 St. Louis Dexter McCleon CB Clemson
41 Atlanta Byron Hanspard RB Texas Tech
42 Arizona Jake Plummer QB Arizona State
43 Cincinnati Corey Dillon RB Washington
44 Miami Sam Madison CB Louisville
45 San Diego Freddie Jones TE North Carolina
46 Tennessee Joey Kent WR Tennessee
47 Kansas City Kevin Lockett WR Kansas State
48 Indianapolis Adam Meadows T Georgia
49 Minnesota Torrian Gray DB Virginia Tech
50 Jacksonville Mike Logan FS West Virginia
51 Washington Greg Jones OLB Colorado
52 Buffalo Marcellus Wiley DE Columbia
53 Pittsburgh Will Blackwell WR San Diego State
54 Detroit Kevin Abrams CB Syracuse
55 San Francisco Marc Edwards FB Notre Dame
56 Carolina Mike Minter FS Nebraska
57 Philadelphia James Darling MLB Washington State
58 Baltimore Kim Herring S Penn State
59 New England Brandon Mitchell DE Texas A&M
60 Green Bay Darren Sharper FS William & Mary


Pretty big drop-off already. Only 6/30 are probowlers. A lot of no-names. Only Corey Dillon would be viewed as a world class player here, and there isn't any reasonable person that thinks he's a future HOFer.

Still great quality with Barber, Dillon, Madison, and Sharper.