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58Forever
03-14-2001, 10:34 AM
Who are the teams that will be in the Final Four?....

How about it Trebeck, is that the right question?

Hey I can dream.

[Edited by 58Forever on 03-14-2001 at 11:37 AM]

58Forever
03-14-2001, 10:52 AM
Biggest first round upsets:

East: OSU over USC (11 beats a 6)
West: George Mason over Maryland (14 beats a 3)
South: Western Kentucky over Florida (14 beats a 3)
Midwest: Butler over Wake Forest (10 beats a 7)

ROYC75
03-14-2001, 10:56 AM
ok by me......GO JOE GO !

58Forever
03-14-2001, 11:05 AM
You know if I get this right and everyother pick too...I will win 10,000,000.00...I wonder what the odds are of picking the winner of 63 games? considering you have to pick all the winners before the first game is played...

I guess that's why they can offer 10 mil as a prize...

ROYC75
03-14-2001, 11:07 AM
Joe...

I hear ya,10 mil would be great....would have to be very lucky for this to happen.....Crap...A KU Natl. Champs would be great within itself !

58Forever
03-14-2001, 11:15 AM
Royc, KU National Champions 2001....might not make me rich but sure would make me happy...:D

Phobia
03-14-2001, 11:21 AM
There's only one problem. No Big Ten teams in your final four. I know a way to fix this right up...

Put Duke, MI St, Arizona, & Iowa as your final four teams and you'll be all set.

58Forever
03-14-2001, 11:46 AM
I'll trade you a Oklahoma for Michigan State...ACC, Big 10, Big XII and PAC 10....how's that...AZ is in the PAC 10 aren't they?

58Forever
03-14-2001, 11:47 AM
I'll trade you a Oklahoma for Michigan State...ACC, Big 10, Big XII and PAC 10....how's that...AZ is in the PAC 10 aren't they?

Duke, KU, Michigan State and Arizona...I can live with that...

Cormac
03-14-2001, 11:55 AM
Duke, Maryland, Florida, Arizona

Phil, I have Mich St, Wisconsin, Illinois, UK in my "upset" bracket. 3 big Ten teams should be enough? :D

Phobia
03-14-2001, 12:08 PM
Cormac,

3 big 10 teams is fine but you should consider the Iowa upset of UK. We're rolling and should get Recker back as well. I didn't think we'd win the Big Ten tourney but now that we did, why not keep steamrolling?

Cormac
03-14-2001, 02:09 PM
Phil,

As a grad student at UK..........NO WAY :p UK finally got their defense in line with their sharpshooting during the SEC tourney. My hope for this year is that they get to face Duke in the regional finals. I just want the chance to knock them out (AGAIN!). Nothing else matters!!! If Iowa get in the way, I'll be pi$$ed! I didn't know Recker would be back though. That makes ALL the difference to your team. It'll be a good one.

Cormac
03-14-2001, 02:49 PM
Phil. FYI - http://espn.go.com/ncb/ncaatourney01/news/2001/0314/1154803.html

Tough break.

AJKCFAN
03-14-2001, 02:50 PM
Recker's NOT playing this weekend... Alford made that announcement today at his press conference.

Just drove around the Coliseum... people starting to seep in here and there, TV crews from everywhere (especially Kentucky... my God there's like a dozen of them)

My Final Four:

Duke
North Carolina
Arizona
Stanford

Arizona over Duke to win it all

KCWolfman
03-14-2001, 06:06 PM
Phil - I agree, the Big 10 has the chance to once again dominate the final four....

However, whacha gonna do when Steve gets the call from IU calling him home after this season is over????

Mi_chief_fan
03-14-2001, 06:17 PM
Here's my final 4:

Duke, Maryland, Michigan St. Arizona.

Spartans over Duke in the finals, completing the most successful 4 year runs in 30+ years(since the UCLA dynasty).

Of course, it will just be the beginning, with the likes of Richardson, Taylor & Randolph back on the block next year. The Spartans domination of the best basketball conference in all the land will continue. :)

GO SPARTANS!!!

DanT
03-14-2001, 07:16 PM
Hey 58Forever,

Instead of guessing basketball games, suppose you had to guess which numbers would come up on a series of rolls of a die. Suppose for each of the first 48 games you get to pick 5 of the 6 faces and you win if any of those faces comes up on that roll of the die (e.g. for game 1, you might say "all but number 2"; for game 2, you might say "all but number 6", etc.), for the next 12 games, you get to pick 4 of the 6 sides and for the next 3 games you get to pick 3 of the 6 sides. (There are 48 games up to the Sweet 16, 12 games up to the Final Four and then 3 games to decide the champion, that's why I picked those numbers).

If you gave me a dollar to make all those guesses, I should have to give you back about $6.5 million in case you got them all right, in order for it to be a fair trade. So, if you'd be getting $10 million instead, it's a good bet for you to make. If, however, for 2 of the 48 games (the easiest), I only let you select 4 of the 6 faces for your guess, then I should have to give you about 10.2 million if you win all 63 rolls of the die.

That should give you some idea of the odds. So, do you think there are 48 relatively sure-thing games on the board (i.e. where the favorite has a 5 in 6 chance of winning), 3 toss-ups and 12 games in between? Of course, this example is a very simplified model that isn't perfectly applicable: the most unrealistic of the simplifying assumptions is that there are only 3 different chances for getting a game correct (5 in 6, 4 in 6 or 3 in 6). Really, some games are even easier to call than 5 in 6; most are somewhere in between 3 and 6 and 4 and 6, etc.

[Edited by DanT on 03-15-2001 at 01:39 AM]

RJ
03-14-2001, 07:22 PM
I come up with a different Final Four in evry pool. The only teams I've picked each time are Maryland and Duke. Major ACC fan here.

Have any of you guys seen Creighton play? I've read that they're pretty strong. Are they good enough to beat Iowa? Would Iowa have been a #7 if they hadn't lost Recker for a while? Any responses on this tonight would be appreciated, as I'm turning in my real (read $$) tomorrow morning.

RJ
03-14-2001, 07:31 PM
Dan-
That was an interesting and almost understandable explanation of the odds, probably completely understandable for folks a little smarter than me. My son and I were trying to calculate this the other night, but we both got headaches so we watched Laverne and Shirley re-runs instead.

Archie F. Swin
03-14-2001, 07:44 PM
the Jayhawks' hearts aren't in it . . . the big XII tourney proved that.

They'll probably be best in the conference next season though.

DanT
03-14-2001, 08:18 PM
The equation for my example is

(6/5) to the 48th power times
(6/4) to the 12th power times
(6/3) to the 3rd power equals 6,559,714

The equation for the 'slightly' harder bet is

(6/5) to the 46th power times
(6/4) to the 14th power times
(6/3) to the 3rd power

equals 6,559,714 times (5/4) times (5/4) equals 10,249,553.


[Edited by DanT on 03-15-2001 at 01:34 AM]

RJ
03-14-2001, 11:26 PM
Well, yeah Dan, that's kinda what I was thinking but wasn't sure. Yeah, right.

My friend, how do you know these things? I'm not being the least bit facetious, just honestly curious. I showed this to my son, who I consider a lot brighter than myself, and he just looked sort of puzzled and laughed. I in no way doubt the validity of your numbers, but how does a simple Chiefs fan from KC public schools just sit down at the ol' computer and be able to share with us a basic formula of how to calculate the odds of making 100% correct NCAA Tournament selections? I am duly impressed and at the same time find it highly amusing that I get to chat with a damn genius on a football BB.

DanT
03-15-2001, 12:14 AM
Hey rjintx,

Odds and all that stuff is just part of the training for my job as a statistician. Don't think I'm a genius, I've just sat in more math classes than most sane people. The real question is how did you came about the graciousness, civility and intelligence you always show on these boards? I doubt those traits were acquired after you got to Texas... though I suppose they could have been enhanced by the peculiar spirit of that fine and mighty state! ;)

By the way, the equations I gave are just the inverses of the probability of winning each bet. The idea is something like this: if you pay me a dollar to be able to guess what face(s) of a die comes up, and your guess comes up correctly, I should have to pay you back the inverse of the probability of your guess being correct, in order for it to be a fair trade. For example, if you pay me a dollar and then pick 5 faces of the die, you have a 5/6 chance of winning, so you should get a 1.20 back (6/5) if you do win. Your expected payback will be $1.20 times 5/6, or $1.00, the amount you paid for the opportunity to guess. [Many people think of that 1.20 as the original dollar they put at risk plus the 20 cents they "won" on the bet.] If you pay me a dollar to guess on two throws on the die, you're chance of winning is the product 5/6 times 5/6 or 5/6 to the 2nd power, so you should get 36/25 ($1.44) if you do. To figure out the probability for 63 throws of the die, you should form the product of all your chances of winning each throw. In the first bet, that was the product of 48 terms equal to 5/6, 12 terms equal to 4/6 and 3 terms equal to 3/6: hence, 5/6 to the 48th power times 4/6 to the 12th power times 4/6 to the 3rd power. When you invert that (i.e. flip the fractions over), you get the "fair" payout.

It's simpler than I'm making it sound. The ability to speak plainly somehow left me: I think I've probably spent too much time in classrooms. ;)

[Edited by DanT on 03-15-2001 at 01:16 AM]

DanT
03-15-2001, 12:26 AM
By the way, a cute property of single-elimination tournaments like the NCAA is that the number of games remaining is always equal to the number of teams remaining minus 1. Right now, there are 64 teams, so 63 games remain. When we get down to the Final Four, there will be 3 games to go, etc.

RJ
03-15-2001, 12:52 AM
Dan-

Thanks for the kind words and the simpler explanation. I think maybe I get it now. Since I'm off tomorrow, I'll come back to that last post with calculator in hand and a fresh brain and try to follow the numbers. If I find that I still don't understand, I'll just pop a beer and turn those Laverne and Shirley re-runs on again.

Beer + sitcom + day off = cure to overtaxed brain.

Who says I don't understand mathematics?

58Forever
03-15-2001, 08:42 AM
Dan, well based on your explanation, I assume getting all 63 games correct is somewhat unlikely...but then again, they wouldn't just give away 10 mill if it were easy...if I pick all 63 games right...I wonder if I could get a job as an "expert" B-Ball predictor?...or something...:)