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View Full Version : Buyer Beware: Former 1st-Round Busts Are Risky Investments


Count Zarth
04-04-2007, 06:21 AM
http://chiefs.scout.com/2/632499.html

By John Viril
Warpaint Illustrated Columnist
Posted Apr 3, 2007

In what seems to be an annual NFL ritual for many teams, the Houston Texans recently released their former “franchise” quarterback onto the bonepile. Despite paying David Carr an $8 million bonus last season, Texans head coach Gary Kubiak has decided that Carr, 2002's first overall pick, simply does not have what it takes to lead an NFL offense.

Yet, looking at Carr's obvious physical skills and the outrageous number of sacks (249) he suffered in his first five seasons, personnel men around the league are sure to wonder if all Carr needs is a change in scenery. Some quarterback-needy team is sure to offer Carr a second chance, but the stakes of making a correct decision are enormous. For teams like Cleveland, Detroit, Oakland, Miami and Minnesota, putting the wrong guy behind center could cost an entire coaching staff their jobs.

Before risking their reputations backing Carr, I suggest taking a look at a little draft history. After surveying 21 drafts (1982-2002), I counted a total of 24 first-round quarterbacks (other than Carr) who were “busts” for the franchise that drafted them. I did not consider drafts after 2002 because none of those first-round quarterbacks can be accurately judged at this point.

Here is the “bust” list:

http://img47.imageshack.us/img47/9607/qblistbu2.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Steve Young is the crown jewel of this list. Tampa Bay picked Young in the 1984 supplemental draft even after Young had already signed a then-record $40-million contract with the USFL. After the USFL folded in 1985, Young was in Tampa Bay for two seasons before they ditched him in favor of Vinny Testaverde. Young became Joe Montana's unhappy caddy in San Francisco before reeling off seven Pro Bowl seasons, six league passing titles and a Super Bowl win. He is now in the Hall of Fame.

Of the other 23 quarterbacks, I only consider five to be successful “reclamation” projects: Kerry Collins, Trent Dilfer, Jim Harbaugh, Tommy Maddox and Vinny Testaverde. Of the five, only Testaverde and Collins came close to realizing their first-round “potential” with another team. Testaverde spent nine seasons as the primary starter for the Browns, Ravens, Jets and Cowboys, earning two Pro-Bowl berths. Meanwhile, Collins started seven seasons for the Giants and Raiders, leading the 2000 Giants to the Super Bowl.

The other three earned no more than ephemeral success in a starting role. Dilfer was a caretaker quarterback for the 2000 champion Ravens, but has only earned a starting role in one season since (2005 Browns). Harbaugh had a nice three-year run as “Captain Comeback” for the Colts in the mid-90's, while Tommy Maddox started for two playoff seasons in Pittsburgh (2002-2003).

Jeff George is something of a special case. George did enjoy considerable statistical success as the starting quarterback with three different franchises (Atlanta, Oakland and Minnesota). He had big years in 1995, 1997 and in 1999. Yet, at every stop, George was such a head case no one could tolerate him for long. I don’t believe you can consider him a success at any stop because he was so disruptive to team chemistry.

The bottom line: reclamation projects have shown a low success rate in the recent past (25 percent). Even if the risk does pan out, the quarterback play you get in return is likely to be both short-term and mediocre. With this track-record, it’s easy to see why aged veterans like Trent Green and Jeff Garcia can command dollars and draft picks on the open market despite being near the end of their careers.

Direckshun
04-04-2007, 06:55 AM
I refuse to believe anything bad about coveted backup Patrick Ramsey.

Fire Me Boy!
04-04-2007, 07:26 AM
Boy, GoChiefs... I'll be you're not embarrassed to print that, considering it's all new information that no one knew before now. Thanks. :thumb: [/sarcasm]

Fire Me Boy!
04-04-2007, 07:27 AM
Now... without being sarcastic, I'm not bashing the post at all. Thanks for the article in fact. But this is nothing new. This article is no better than the one you were harping about yesterday.

Count Zarth
04-04-2007, 07:32 AM
Now... without being sarcastic, I'm not bashing the post at all. Thanks for the article in fact. But this is nothing new. This article is no better than the one you were harping about yesterday.

I completely disagree with you. This was a very nice exploration of first-round quarterback busts. I learned something.

The Larry Johnson "piece" was just a mindless rehash of the last couple of seasons. It was a glorified bio. HUGE difference.

Mile High Mania
04-04-2007, 07:34 AM
Nothing to see here... move along, people.

Fire Me Boy!
04-04-2007, 07:50 AM
I completely disagree with you. This was a very nice exploration of first-round quarterback busts. I learned something.

The Larry Johnson "piece" was just a mindless rehash of the last couple of seasons. It was a glorified bio. HUGE difference.
Dude, this piece is no better. Are you seriously admitting that you didn't know that first round picks are risky? Huge upside, but some make it and some don't? If you didn't know this already, you have no business writing for football.

Count Zarth
04-04-2007, 07:51 AM
You've gotten very myopic, apparently from having to focus on pubes while slobbering on Nick "The Erroneous One" Athan's knob.


Nick didn't write this.

I hated the other one. This one was a good read, and informative.

Fire Me Boy!
04-04-2007, 07:56 AM
You didn't have to get nasty. Nick didn't write this.

I hated the other one. This one was a good read, and informative.
You're right. Uncalled for. Delete it from your quote. I deleted it from my post.

siberian khatru
04-04-2007, 07:59 AM
They misspelled Schlichter and Druckenmiller.

Count Zarth
04-04-2007, 08:01 AM
They misspelled Schlichter and Druckenmiller.

Thankyou sir.

jidar
04-04-2007, 08:03 AM
There is some kind of anti-go chiefs bandwagon that is starting to look a little bit pathetic.

In other words, Fire Me Boy likes men.

That said taking the article on it's merits I thought it was informative. Of course everyone knows that taking other peoples 1st round busts is going to be risky, but how risky? I didn't realize the failure rate was so abysmal and in my eyes Carr just dropped a ton of notches. I got so used to thinking of him as almost being good that I forgot to consider the possibility that he just isn't.

htismaqe
04-04-2007, 08:10 AM
There is some kind of anti-go chiefs bandwagon that is starting to look a little bit pathetic.

In other words, Fire Me Boy likes men.

That said taking the article on it's merits I thought it was informative. Of course everyone knows that taking other peoples 1st round busts is going to be risky, but how risky? I didn't realize the failure rate was so abysmal and in my eyes Carr just dropped a ton of notches. I got so used to thinking of him as almost being good that I forgot to consider the possibility that he just isn't.

It's not anti-GoChiefs.

It's anti-Warpaint Illustrated.

Direckshun
04-04-2007, 08:19 AM
I'm pretty much anti-everybody here.

That said, you all can bite me.

Count Zarth
04-04-2007, 08:20 AM
That said, you all can bite me.

**** you then. :p

Fire Me Boy!
04-04-2007, 08:24 AM
In other words, Fire Me Boy likes men.

Uh... what?

Mile High Mania
04-04-2007, 08:43 AM
It's not anti-GoChiefs.

It's anti-Warpaint Illustrated.

It's a mix of both for me...

Kerberos
04-04-2007, 08:58 AM
It's a mix of both for me...


We live in a society where individual egos are on the forefront.

htismaqe
04-04-2007, 09:08 AM
It's a mix of both for me...

Much like my inability to understand KU fans' obsession with KSU, I don't understand Planet members' obsession with Warpaint. It's almost like they feel threatened.

I can say, without a doubt, that this place, of all places, should not feel threatened by a Scout.com message board.

crazycoffey
04-04-2007, 11:32 AM
I'm pretty much anti-everybody here.

That said, you all can bite me.


careful what you offer, some here may take you up on that offer.......


Like GoNTTAWWT

StcChief
04-04-2007, 11:34 AM
1st rounders shouldn't be busts, maybe our talent evaluation is the Bust.

crazycoffey
04-04-2007, 11:35 AM
I didn't think it was such a bad article......

lets offer Carr a deal like huard (or slightly less) and see if he's an exception to this past rule of 1st round busts.....

Redrum_69
04-04-2007, 11:38 AM
ANother WPI article

another piece of shit post from GoChiefs aka Darth Incestious

crazycoffey
04-04-2007, 11:40 AM
1st rounders shouldn't be busts, maybe our talent evaluation is the Bust.



:clap: ding ding ding, we have a winner!:clap:

Halfcan
04-04-2007, 11:40 AM
Nothing to see here... move along, people.

yep