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View Full Version : AFC West draft analysis based on GOSSELIN Top 100


patteeu
05-01-2007, 12:38 PM
If you are one of those who agree that Rick Gosselin is one of the more accurate predictors (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=162309) of the NFL draft, you might find the results of this analysis interesting.

The analysis is a comparison of how much each team "paid" for their top draft picks compared to what price should have been expected if the draft had followed Gosselin's "draft board." I use this draft value chart (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2410670) to assign values to the players based on where they fall in Gosselin's list and to assign costs associated with the draft picks each team used to draft those players. In the second post, I'll show the details of the calculations for those who are interested. Here I'll only list the results:

Team Total Cost Total Value Net
---------- ---------- ----------- -------
Chiefs 1300 1530 +230
Broncos 1553.2 1306 -247.2
Chargers 1242.6 800 -442.6
Raiders 4042 2998 -1044

In other words, the Chiefs were the only team that didn't have a net "reach" at the top end of it's draft. Using Gosselin's rankings as a standard, the Chiefs got the most value out of the picks they had to work with.

One caveat I'd add is that the Raiders were severely hurt in this analysis by their selection of JaMarcus Russell at the top of the draft since Gosselin ranked Russell as the #3 prospect behind Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson. As anyone who is familiar with the draft value chart knows, the values at the top of the draft are huge and the difference in value between #1 and #3 are dramatic (800 points). If we give the Raiders a break for this and ignore that 800 point value deficit, their results end up just ahead of the Broncos in the list above with a Net Value of -240 for the rest of their top picks.

Sorry if this is a repost. ;)

patteeu
05-01-2007, 12:40 PM
Here are some of the details of the analysis.

The costs were calculated by assigning draft value chart values based on the pick used to acquire the player. In a few cases, a draft day trade (http://www.nfl.com/draft/drafttracker/trades) was made to move up (or down) to take a player. In those cases, the cost was based on the draft picks used to make the trade rather than the draft picks used to draft the player.

In a couple of cases, a 2008 3rd round draft pick was involved in a trade. In both cases, I valued that pick at 69 points which is approximately the value of the center of the 4th round in 2007.

I only included players who were selected with a pick in the top 100 picks of the draft. I was also prepared to credit a team for picking up a player later in the draft if Gosselin had that player in his top 100, but there were no picks that fell into that category.

Below I'll list the players each team drafted followed by the pick used (and information about any relevant trades) and the Gosselin rank of that player. Then I'll show the numbers used to calculate each team's cost and value.

-------------------------------------

Kansas City

Dwayne Bowe-WR-LSU --> Taken with pick 23 / Gosselin rank 25
Turk McBride-DT-Tenn --> Taken with pick 54 / Gosselin rank 46
Tank Tyler-DT-NCState --> Taken with pick 82 / Gosselin rank 53

Cost = 1300

760 for pick 23 (Bowe)
360 for pick 54 (McBride)
180 for pick 82 (Tyler)


Value = 1530

720 for rank 25 (Bowe)
440 for rank 46 (McBride)
370 for rank 53 (Tyler)

-------------------------------------

Denver

Jarvis Moss-DE-Florida --> traded 21, 86, & 198 to draft at 17 / R23
Tim Crowder-DT-Texas --> 56 / R63
Ryan Harris-OT-NotreDame --> 70 / R64

Cost = 1553.2

800 for pick 21 (Moss)
160 for pick 86 (Moss)
13.2 for pick 198 (Moss)
340 for pick 56 (Crowder)
240 for pick 70 (Harris)

Value = 1306

760 for rank 23 (Moss)
276 for rank 63 (Crowder)
270 for rank 64 (Harris)

-------------------------------------

San Diego

Craig Davis-WR-LSU --> 30 / R43
Eric Weddle-S-Utah --> traded 62, 93, 167, & 2008 3rd rounder to draft at 37 / R57
Anthony Waters-ILB-Clemson --> 96 / NoRank

Cost = 1242.6

620 for pick 30 (Davis)
284 for pick 62 (Weddle)
128 for pick 93 (Weddle)
25.6 for pick 167 (Weddle)
69 for 2008 3rd rounder (Weddle)
116 for pick 96 (Waters)

Value = 800

470 for rank 43 (Davis)
330 for rank 57 (Weddle)
0 for NoRank (Waters)

-------------------------------------

Oakland

JaMarcus Russell-QB-LSU --> 1 R3
Zach Miller-TE-ASU --> traded 33 and received 105 to draft at 38 / R54
Quentin MOses-DE-Georgia --> 65 / R76
Mario Henderson-OT-FloridaState --> traded 211 & 2008 3rd rounder to draft at 91 / NoRank
Johnny Lee Higgins-WR-UTEP --> 99 / R99
Michael Bush --> 100 / R94

Cost = 4042

3000 for pick 1 (Russell)
580 for pick 33 (Miller)
-84 for getting pick 108 in trade (Miller)
265 for pick 65 (Moses)
8 for pick 211 (Henderson)
69 for 2008 3rd rounder (Henderson)
104 for pick 99 (Higgins)
100 for pick 100 (Bush)

Value = 2998

2200 for rank 3 (Russell)
360 for rank 54 (Miller)
210 for rank 76 (Moses)
0 for NoRank (Henderson)
104 for rank 99 (Higgins)
124 for rank 94 (Bush)

Mr. Kotter
05-01-2007, 12:42 PM
Interesting way of looking at it.

I LIKE it. A lot. :D

:thumb:

siberian khatru
05-01-2007, 12:47 PM
As usual, nothing but partisan spin from Patteeu.

Josh Marshall completely devastates this "analysis" in the latest talkingpointsmemo.com.

siberian khatru
05-01-2007, 12:47 PM
Oops, sorry, wrong forum.

Mr. Kotter
05-01-2007, 12:49 PM
As usual, nothing but partisan spin from Patteeu.

Josh Marshall completely devastates this "analysis" in the latest talkingpointsmemo.com.

I've often wondered if sk and jAZ were the same poster.

I think this eliminates all doubt. :)

patteeu
05-01-2007, 12:50 PM
As usual, nothing but partisan spin from Patteeu.

Josh Marshall completely devastates this "analysis" in the latest talkingpointsmemo.com.

ROFL

Cochise
05-01-2007, 12:53 PM
Nice analysis. :thumb:

htismaqe
05-01-2007, 12:57 PM
Homer!

You didn't subtract the 200 points the Chiefs got docked for not taking Joe-sus Staley...

Mr. Kotter
05-01-2007, 12:58 PM
Homer!

You didn't subtract the 200 points the Chiefs got docked for not taking Joe-sus Staley...

Heh. We'd STILL "win" in this analysis. :p

keg in kc
05-01-2007, 01:02 PM
Interesting, although not intrisically more valuable than any of the plethora of negative draft reviews.

bdeg
05-01-2007, 01:10 PM
Interesting, although not intrisically more valuable than any of the plethora of negative draft reviews.

Except when you consider that Gosselin knows what he's talking about. I believe Scott Wright's would have favored us too. I know he had Turk and Tank ranked above where we drafted them.

That's, IMO, the best 2 analysts supporting our draft. As opposed to people with biased opinions because we didn't reach for the OL they liked.

keg in kc
05-01-2007, 01:14 PM
Except when you consider that Gosselin knows what he's talking about. I believe Scott Wright's would have favored us too. I know he had Turk and Tank ranked above where we drafted them.

That's, IMO, the best 2 analysts supporting our draft. As opposed to people with biased opinions because we didn't reach for the OL they liked.In the end he's still an analyst, and none of his research or insight will have any impact on whether or not our picks will perform, or at what level.

That's all I'm saying.

bdeg
05-01-2007, 01:16 PM
In the end he's still an analyst, and none of his research or insight will have any impact on whether or not our picks will perform, or at what level.

That's all I'm saying.
True. But we've gotta talk about something :)

pikesome
05-01-2007, 01:19 PM
True. But we've gotta talk about something :)

Damn straight. Football has entered the barren wastelands till TC.

Chiefnj
05-01-2007, 01:22 PM
I believe Scott Wright's would have favored us too. I know he had Turk and Tank ranked above where we drafted them.

.


Not exactly.

He had Bowe at 21. Tyler at 61 and Mcbride at 66.

21 - 23 (+2 in value)
61 - 82 (+21 in value)
66 - 54 (-14 in value)

Total +9 in value.

patteeu
05-01-2007, 01:29 PM
Except when you consider that Gosselin knows what he's talking about. I believe Scott Wright's would have favored us too. I know he had Turk and Tank ranked above where we drafted them.

That's, IMO, the best 2 analysts supporting our draft. As opposed to people with biased opinions because we didn't reach for the OL they liked.

If Scott Wright's top 100 (http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/rankings/top.html) are used with the same methodology here are the results:

Team Total Cost Total Value Net
---------- ---------- ----------- -------
Chiefs 1300 1352 +52
Broncos 1553.2 1190 -363.2
Chargers 1242.6 870 -372.6
Raiders 4042 2830 -1212*

*With the JaMarcus Russell "credit" the Raiders would be a net +88

Mile High Mania
05-01-2007, 01:33 PM
Interesting way to look at it...

cdcox
05-01-2007, 03:49 PM
Nice analysis. Did you do the rest of the NFL? If so it would be neat to see the results.

Chief Faithful
05-01-2007, 04:02 PM
Yeah! Chiefs are going to win the division!

HolmeZz
05-01-2007, 04:18 PM
Not exactly.

He had Bowe at 21. Tyler at 61 and Mcbride at 66.

21 - 23 (+2 in value)
61 - 82 (+21 in value)
66 - 54 (-14 in value)

Total +9 in value.

+11

orange
05-01-2007, 04:39 PM
What this really proves is that the Chiefs are the only AFC West team that consults Gosselin's mock draft for their draft picks. I wonder if RG can start charging them?

Maybe he can get the Chiefs to pay him $1000 for every sack Amobi Okoye makes for Kansas City.

TinyEvel
05-01-2007, 04:43 PM
Nice analysis. But our real net is +2,000,230. We get a million extra points each for letting Sims and Hicks go today.

:thumb:
:clap:

OctoberFart
05-01-2007, 04:47 PM
Lets review in 5 years.

bdeg
05-01-2007, 04:55 PM
Lets review in 5 years.
Bring it on :spank:

Calcountry
05-01-2007, 05:08 PM
Yeah! Chiefs are going to win the division!The Ultimate!

Logical
05-01-2007, 05:14 PM
Interesting view of the draft from a potential value perspective. Nice job patteeu.

Wrasse
05-01-2007, 05:22 PM
What this really proves is that the Chiefs are the only AFC West team that consults Gosselin's mock draft for their draft picks. I wonder if RG can start charging them?

Maybe he can get the Chiefs to pay him $1000 for every sack Amobi Okoye makes for Kansas City.
Huh?

*edit*

Oh and thanks Patteeu for the work you put into this...very interesting take.

Adept Havelock
05-01-2007, 05:27 PM
Thanks, patteeu. Some interesting analysis there.

orange
05-01-2007, 05:28 PM
Huh?.

See here: Gosselin's Final Mock Draft

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=162050

Wrasse
05-01-2007, 05:31 PM
See here: Gosselin's Final Mock Draft

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=162050
Ahhh...groovy...didn't see that.

Tribal Warfare
05-01-2007, 05:35 PM
Al Davis EXCELLENT Al Davis

beer bacon
05-01-2007, 05:59 PM
What this really proves is that the Chiefs are the only AFC West team that consults Gosselin's mock draft for their draft picks. I wonder if RG can start charging them?

Maybe he can get the Chiefs to pay him $1000 for every sack Amobi Okoye makes for Kansas City.

You have this ass backwards. Gosselin consults his contacts among NFL teams, and then he puts together his mock. He doesn't watch tape or anything. His mocks and top 100 year after year are just what his contacts tell him, and year after year they are the most accurate.

orange
05-01-2007, 06:17 PM
You have this ass backwards. Gosselin consults his contacts among NFL teams, and then he puts together his mock. He doesn't watch tape or anything. His mocks and top 100 year after year are just what his contacts tell him, and year after year they are the most accurate.

So they are the proverbial "turd that floats the highest in the sewer?"

HemiEd
10-16-2007, 12:22 PM
So far, I would say this guy is looking pretty smart.

Direckshun
10-16-2007, 01:08 PM
As would I.

CupidStunt
10-16-2007, 01:12 PM
What this really proves is that the Chiefs are the only AFC West team that consults Gosselin's mock draft for their draft picks. I wonder if RG can start charging them?

Maybe he can get the Chiefs to pay him $1000 for every sack Amobi Okoye makes for Kansas City.

Jarvis Moss looks awesome as a stand-up DT...