patteeu

05-01-2007, 12:38 PM

If you are one of those who agree that Rick Gosselin is one of the more accurate predictors (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=162309) of the NFL draft, you might find the results of this analysis interesting.

The analysis is a comparison of how much each team "paid" for their top draft picks compared to what price should have been expected if the draft had followed Gosselin's "draft board." I use this draft value chart (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2410670) to assign values to the players based on where they fall in Gosselin's list and to assign costs associated with the draft picks each team used to draft those players. In the second post, I'll show the details of the calculations for those who are interested. Here I'll only list the results:

Team Total Cost Total Value Net

---------- ---------- ----------- -------

Chiefs 1300 1530 +230

Broncos 1553.2 1306 -247.2

Chargers 1242.6 800 -442.6

Raiders 4042 2998 -1044

In other words, the Chiefs were the only team that didn't have a net "reach" at the top end of it's draft. Using Gosselin's rankings as a standard, the Chiefs got the most value out of the picks they had to work with.

One caveat I'd add is that the Raiders were severely hurt in this analysis by their selection of JaMarcus Russell at the top of the draft since Gosselin ranked Russell as the #3 prospect behind Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson. As anyone who is familiar with the draft value chart knows, the values at the top of the draft are huge and the difference in value between #1 and #3 are dramatic (800 points). If we give the Raiders a break for this and ignore that 800 point value deficit, their results end up just ahead of the Broncos in the list above with a Net Value of -240 for the rest of their top picks.

Sorry if this is a repost. ;)

The analysis is a comparison of how much each team "paid" for their top draft picks compared to what price should have been expected if the draft had followed Gosselin's "draft board." I use this draft value chart (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2410670) to assign values to the players based on where they fall in Gosselin's list and to assign costs associated with the draft picks each team used to draft those players. In the second post, I'll show the details of the calculations for those who are interested. Here I'll only list the results:

Team Total Cost Total Value Net

---------- ---------- ----------- -------

Chiefs 1300 1530 +230

Broncos 1553.2 1306 -247.2

Chargers 1242.6 800 -442.6

Raiders 4042 2998 -1044

In other words, the Chiefs were the only team that didn't have a net "reach" at the top end of it's draft. Using Gosselin's rankings as a standard, the Chiefs got the most value out of the picks they had to work with.

One caveat I'd add is that the Raiders were severely hurt in this analysis by their selection of JaMarcus Russell at the top of the draft since Gosselin ranked Russell as the #3 prospect behind Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson. As anyone who is familiar with the draft value chart knows, the values at the top of the draft are huge and the difference in value between #1 and #3 are dramatic (800 points). If we give the Raiders a break for this and ignore that 800 point value deficit, their results end up just ahead of the Broncos in the list above with a Net Value of -240 for the rest of their top picks.

Sorry if this is a repost. ;)