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penchief
05-12-2007, 07:33 PM
Question: Which active baseball player has a legitimate shot at 4000 hits?

Hint: He's played eleven full seasons. If he plays twenty years at his current pace (he has averaged 154 games per season so he's pretty durable), he can also surpass Ricky Henderson as the all-time Runs Scored leader.

Some of you might be surprised. He's often mentioned when the "most overrated player" discussions come up. On the other hand, he's also mentioned when the "most underrated player" discussions come up.

jeffery
05-12-2007, 07:35 PM
the "great" A-Rod

penchief
05-12-2007, 07:36 PM
the "great" A-Rod

That's a big negatory.

Count Alex's Losses
05-12-2007, 07:37 PM
Juan Gonzalez

penchief
05-12-2007, 07:38 PM
Juan Gonzalez

Heh.

Count Alex's Losses
05-12-2007, 07:40 PM
Mike Young, perhaps?

Count Alex's Losses
05-12-2007, 07:41 PM
Nope.

penchief
05-12-2007, 07:41 PM
Mike Young, perhaps?

Another big negatory.

I can't give anymore hints because I've already given too much away.

Well, here's one more: At his current pace he will also wind up 10th all-time in doubles. Now, that is giving too much of a hint.

milkman
05-12-2007, 07:45 PM
Derek Jeter?

Count Alex's Losses
05-12-2007, 07:46 PM
Jeter.

Count Alex's Losses
05-12-2007, 07:47 PM
Derek Jeter?

You son of a bitch.

luv
05-12-2007, 07:48 PM
the "great" A-Rod
I just rejected a trade in my fantasy league. I've got him, and someone offered me David Wright and Chris Carpenter for him.

Count Alex's Losses
05-12-2007, 07:49 PM
I just rejected a trade in my fantasy league. I've got him, and someone offered me David Wright and Chris Carpenter for him.

You've never been hotter than you are right now.

dj56dt58
05-12-2007, 07:51 PM
Derek Jeter

Shit..too late

88TG88
05-12-2007, 07:52 PM
so is it jeter ?

dj56dt58
05-12-2007, 07:54 PM
so is it jeter ?
has to be...I thought he's been in the majors 12 seasons though?

BigMeatballDave
05-12-2007, 07:56 PM
Has anyone guessed Jeter?

penchief
05-12-2007, 07:59 PM
Derek Jeter?

That's it. Good job.

He easily flies under the radar because he doesn't bat 3 or 4 in the lineup and doesn't hit a lot of homers. But few in this game are more consistent, year in and year out, at what they do.

At his current pace he will have 3980 hits if he plays 20 seasons at 154 games per. He will have 2340 runs.

I think it's possible because he is just now entering his prime at 32. Last season is what I expect we'll see for two or three more. He already has 2300 hits and most importantly, IMO, he is a natural athlete. I think, barring injury, that he can ultimately be the all-time hits leader and runs leader.

penchief
05-12-2007, 08:00 PM
has to be...I thought he's been in the majors 12 seasons though?

He only played 12 games (I think) in his first call-up during the '95 season.

Marlboro_Chief
05-12-2007, 08:06 PM
Jeter entered today with exactly 2200 hits. Let him get to the 3000 hit club first and then we'll discuss Rose's record. Didn't we already do this with Griffey Jr.?

penchief
05-12-2007, 08:09 PM
Jeter entered today with exactly 2200 hits. Let him get to the 3000 hit club first and then we'll discuss Rose's record. Didn't we already do this with Griffey Jr.?

He entered today with 2300 hits. The key is his durability and his non-status as a steroided-up power hitter.

penchief
05-12-2007, 10:20 PM
So.....is Jeter overrated or is he only getting his just due? Or is he underrated?

If he ends up with over 4000 hits and 2300 runs would that settle the debate? Is he on his way to the HOF? And if so, does he deserve it?

I'm watching tonight's game as we speak and Jeter is 3 for 3. So we can make that 2303 career hits in 11-plus seasons. Right now, he's averaging 200 hits per season.

Buck
05-12-2007, 10:26 PM
Ichiro, he already has 2600 hits...shit hes played since 1992. Maybe not.

penchief
05-12-2007, 10:30 PM
Ichiro

They are similar. Jeter does things at shortstop (the across the body throw) better than anyone I have ever seen.

Other than that, Jeter does have the power to hit 20-30 homers per year but he stays true to his hitting philosophy. He drives the ball to the opposite field with a near perfect inside-out swing not exhibited by anybody else in my limited baseball memory.

Marlboro_Chief
05-12-2007, 10:41 PM
He entered today with 2300 hits. The key is his durability and his non-status as a steroided-up power hitter.

He turns 33 next month and he's already a liability at shortstop. He'll be moved to a new position within 3 years. Unless he moves to second, Jeter's numbers will be less desirable at other positions, we'll see how much of the batting average he maintains as he ages.

That being said, I think he's going to Craig Biggio it to 4000.

Ari Chi3fs
05-12-2007, 10:44 PM
When is The Baseball Hall of Fame going to get a Japanese and Latin American Wing for HOF in those leagues. Id love to know how everyone stacks up.

penchief
05-12-2007, 10:48 PM
He turns 33 next month and he's already a liability at shortstop. He'll be moved to a new position within 3 years. Unless he moves to second, Jeter's numbers will be less desirable at other positions, we'll see how much of the batting average he maintains as he ages.

That being said, I think he's going to Craig Biggio it to 4000.

I don't know about that. Jeter never had great range. Even so, I don't think it has diminished much, if any at all. While at the same time, he does things at shortstop better than anyone I have ever seen (the across-the-body throw and the over-the-shoulder catch).

However, what he has done better with age is show more patience at the plate. It's amazing that he has a lifetime .318 batting average considering that he struck out so much and walked so little in his earlier years.

Buck
05-12-2007, 10:49 PM
Damn, Jeter only has 2300 hits?

If he quit today is he a hall of famer?

Edit: My answer is yes obviously.

penchief
05-12-2007, 11:11 PM
Damn, Jeter only has 2300 hits?

If he quit today is he a hall of famer?

Edit: My answer is yes obviously.

My apologies. Marlboro_chief is right. Jeter entered into tonight with 2200 hits (not 2300). That was a brain fart on my part. However, the projection for twenty years at 154 games per season is correct. he is averageing 199 hits per season and would end up with 3980 at the end of 20 full season if he maintained his current pace.

Rose and Cobb both broke 4000 hits in 23-plus seasons while Aaron had 3771 hits in 23 full seasons.

Demonpenz
05-12-2007, 11:35 PM
jeter is the second best SS on his team

RJ
05-13-2007, 12:46 AM
Although I hate the Yankees I genuinely admire Jeter. He's a HOF'er for certain playing SS and being a consistent producer at the plate in OBP, AVG, R, SB, RBI and usually chipping in 15-20 HR per season. Having said all that, he'll need to be very lucky to get to 4000 hits. Not because of a lack of skills but because the odds are against him. He has to stay healthy and continue hitting near the top of the order on a very good offensive team. Both those things can change quickly.

I remember when I was a kid reading about why Willie Mays was more likely to break Ruth's HR record than Aaron and then later why Steve Carlton and not Nolan Ryan would become the all time K's leader. The arguments in both cases were plausible but plain old luck ended up getting in the way.

cdcox
05-13-2007, 01:31 AM
Up to age 32, Jeter and Rose are almost identical in hits: 2150 to 2152. However, from age 32 onward, Rose was the most productive player (in terms of hits) in the history of baseball. In order to overtake Rose, Jeter will have to have more hits than any +32 year old player in the history of baseball. I would bet strongly against it.

SnakeXJones
05-13-2007, 01:47 AM
I think ichiro would have a good chance if he came in the league alot earlier, I think he was around 26 or 27 when he came into the mlb.

milkman
05-13-2007, 07:54 AM
Up to age 32, Jeter and Rose are almost identical in hits: 2150 to 2152. However, from age 32 onward, Rose was the most productive player (in terms of hits) in the history of baseball. In order to overtake Rose, Jeter will have to have more hits than any +32 year old player in the history of baseball. I would bet strongly against it.

Subtle.

I wouldn't take that bet.

penchief
05-13-2007, 09:36 AM
Up to age 32, Jeter and Rose are almost identical in hits: 2150 to 2152. However, from age 32 onward, Rose was the most productive player (in terms of hits) in the history of baseball. In order to overtake Rose, Jeter will have to have more hits than any +32 year old player in the history of baseball. I would bet strongly against it.

I would agree that his career would have to continue at the same clip. Longevity will be the key. If he stays healthy and wants to play it is possible. From the looks of things, about 23 years seems to be the ceiling for longevity. Both Cobb and Rose played for 23-plus years.

StcChief
05-13-2007, 11:49 AM
No doubt Derek Jeter.... damn Yankmes

PinkFloyd
05-13-2007, 01:42 PM
Won't happen if Jeter start's to suck major butt at the age of 37....














Cause the Royal's will pick him up !!






ROFL ROFL

DrKickass
05-13-2007, 08:10 PM
a rod has similar numbers as well and he is younger