Polls Still Don't Matter This Early: Obama-Hillary Tied

[jAZ]

Since Jake likes posting the "Barack is Crashing" polls that don't matter, I figure I should post a "Barack is Surghing" poll that doesn't matter.

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=27763

June 05, 2007
Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama Tie in Latest Democratic Trial Heat
Giuliani still leads as Republicans' choice to win the nomination next year

by Joseph Carroll

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama essentially tied as Democrats' choice for the Democratic nomination for president in 2008. Clinton has generally held a considerable lead over Obama in most USA Today/Gallup polls this year, although Clinton's lead diminished in mid-April before rebounding in May. Republicans continue to support former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani to win the Republican nomination for president next year, with little significant change in the structure of the GOP race.

The poll was conducted June 1-3, 2007, and almost all of the interviews were completed prior to the Democratic candidate debate held in New Hampshire on Sunday, June 3. Republican candidates will debate one another in New Hampshire on Tuesday night, June 5.

Democratic Nomination Trial Heats

The poll asked Democrats and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party who they are most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president next year. Obama and Clinton are now tied, with 30% supporting Obama and 29% supporting Clinton. Seventeen percent of Democrats support former Vice President Al Gore for the nomination, and 11% support former North Carolina Senator John Edwards. No other candidate registers better than 3% support.

[Ultra Peanut]

GOOD SIR,

I have been directed to your thread via the internet forum WASHINGTON DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA by way of the website ChiefsPlanet dot com. With regard to your message about the subject of B. Hussein Osama vis a vis HilBITCHBITCHBITCHlary ClWHOREiWHOREnWHOREton on the matter of polls, I must say WHAT.

Sincerely,

An adoring fan

[recxjake]

realclearpolitics still has Hillary up by 9 points....

[jAZ]

realclearpolitics still has Hillary up by 9 points....
So, what you are saying is that it's possible that these polls mean little at this point.

[Ultra Peanut]

GOOD SIR,

I would like to formally submit a request for some degree of clarification regarding your previous statement, and I quote: "So, what you are saying is that it's possible that these polls mean little at this point." After a hard day at work, nothing wets my whistle like an Icy Hot back patch. Nobody doesn't like Icy Hot.

Gratefully yours,

An interested party

[recxjake]

So, what you are saying is that it's possible that these polls mean little at this point.

I believe that an average of polls show an accurate display of the race at a current moment in time..... however things change, and just because Hillary and Rudy are leading now, doesn't mean they will be leading 7 months from now.

[Ugly Duck]

Obama has been unusually easy on Clinton recently - never takes the bait, never goes for the kill, barely even pretends to put up his dukes. Could it be that he don't wanna bloody his future running mate? Clinton/Obama '08? That would be a good move for Obama - he could learn the tricks of the trade from Bill (who would really be the guy running things in the background).

[Infidel Goat]

National polls meaningless.

State polls more meaningful.

BUT--it's only June...

[Cochise]

I like realclearpolitics because of the graphic they do with the average of all their polls over time:

[Cochise]

National polls meaningless.

State polls more meaningful.

BUT--it's only June...

This is a good point. You need to see who is where in what states. National polls give you a very general idea - they are usually off, but they aren't usually off by a ton. But you have to look at how the states are divided internally to get an idea who might win.

And Iowa has only been right 4 times out of the last 8 for the Democrats. (when there was more than one person running - one time it went heavily for Harkin, which you can kind of throw out) So Iowa's track record is better than 50%, but it's not as if Iowa predicts better than anyone could by looking at a poll.

It's way too early, but what I could see emerging is the big states on the coasts with double-digit electoral votes going to Clinton - California, New York, Mass, PA, NJ, FL, and Obama winning some of the Midwest states. But I would think it would be hard to win as a democrat if you don't have the power bases in NY and CA.