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View Full Version : Ron Paul's campaign faces major benchmark in Iowa Straw Poll


Taco John
08-08-2007, 01:28 AM
August 7, 2007


The purpose of a political campaign is to win. To do that, you have to constantly build momentum and reach top speed on Election Day. The Ron Paul 2008 campaign is now shifting to a higher gear. The next stop: Iowa straw poll this Saturday.

But before we shift gears, let's remember how our campaign was dismissed by many at first. The "experts" didn't give us a chance. They didn't think we could even get our engine started. What they did give us were their inside-the-Beltway opinions why Ron Paul's campaign for freedom and constitutional government would sputter after only a few weeks.

But the "experts" were wrong. Why?

1. The message: Freedom.
2. The man: Ron Paul.
3. You.

This combination confounds the so-called experts. However, to you and me, it's no surprise at all.

But let's get back to focusing on the future and building momentum.

The Iowa straw poll this Saturday is an important stop along the way for Ron Paul to win the Republican nomination, and then the general election for president. Competing in the Iowa straw poll is important, and it is also expensive.

For example, the entry fee alone is $15,000.00, which gives you the privilege of then having to spend a bunch more. Radio and TV spots, office space, staff, travel expenses, signs, direct mail, phone banks, campaign events, and on and on...all add up to a lot of money...several hundred thousand dollars actually. (Some campaigns are spending even more; much more.)

Dr. Paul and his wife Carol are in Iowa this entire week with a crew of dedicated campaign staffers and hard-working volunteers. Their days start before dawn and end near midnight. But that's what it takes to build the momentum.

Will you help us build the momentum?

We have produced three radio spots and a television commercial just for the Iowa straw poll this Saturday, August 11. The purpose: get Iowans to attend the straw poll and vote for Ron Paul. But for that to happen, thousands of Iowans throughout the entire state will need to hear and see these ads many times, and that will take a bunch of money.

We're already stretching our budget with the expenses I mentioned earlier, so we don't have much left to broadcast our TV and radio ads. We only have a few days left to introduce Ron Paul and his message of freedom and constitutional government to Iowans from every corner of the state.

Dr. Paul and his wife Carol are on the ground in Iowa talking with folks day and night. Help them spread their message of freedom and constitutional government in the air by donating today.

Listen to the three radio ads and take a look at the TV spot. Then make a donation.

During the next few days, thousands of Iowans must hear about Ron Paul and his message -- our message -- of freedom, peace and prosperity.

Donate today. Encourage Iowans with these radio and TV ads to attend the straw poll and vote for Ron Paul. Help us build momentum.

See the ads and make a donation. Go to http://www.ronpaul2008.com.

Thank you!

Kent Snyder
Chairman, Ron Paul 2008

Taco John
08-08-2007, 01:31 AM
Thought I'd post the campaign letter I received. If Ron Paul can make a strong showing in this straw poll, he'll get a renewed burst, fresh energy, and an air of legitimacy. If he has a poor showing, he's going to have a hard time getting much traction moving forward.

This straw poll is going to be a pretty key benchmark for his campaign.

Taco John
08-08-2007, 01:34 AM
Also, for those who will inevitably say that straw polls don't matter:

http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1999/08/14/iowa.saturday.02/

SNR
08-08-2007, 01:42 AM
I have no way of registering or casting a vote for Ron in Iowa. It sucks because I'd gladly drive the distance needed to participate.

We're really relying on the campaign workers this week. Hopefully we get a boost.

Taco John
08-08-2007, 01:43 AM
``If we do a lot better than the polls show, we will get a lot more attention and pick up momentum for the campaign,'' Paul said. ``Of course, if we do very poorly, it raises a lot of questions.''

He claims to be picking up support from hard-core Republicans ``who are becoming very frustrated with spending too much in a war that we can't get out of.'' Paul wants to bring troops home from Iraq.

Paul doesn't have to do well Saturday to remain viable, he said.

``It's so early in the campaign that even not coming in first or second or third doesn't mean you haven't had any success whatsoever,'' he said.

http://www.gazetteonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070806/IOWACAUCUS/70806083/1011/IOWACAUCUS

patteeu
08-08-2007, 08:21 AM
If Ron Paul wins the straw poll, I'll take notice. With Guiliani, McCain, and Thompson not participating, this will be his best chance to make some noise.

What will you consider a "strong showing" in this contest of mostly second and third tier candidates?

patteeu
08-08-2007, 08:26 AM
Paul doesn't have to do well Saturday to remain viable, he said.

``It's so early in the campaign that even not coming in first or second or third doesn't mean you haven't had any success whatsoever,'' he said.

Wow. This is some major expectation lowering for a contest that doesn't include 3 of the 4 front runners in the polls and for a guy whose supporters claim wins most internet polls.

A 3rd place finish wouldn't be all that impressive if you ask me. If he finishes 1st I'm impressed. If he finishes 2nd, he's the best of the rest, which is pretty decent, IMO.

BucEyedPea
08-08-2007, 08:35 AM
I sent some PMs to a few on this BB who support Paul, only one who I know lives in Iowa. One passed it along further.

So for all Iowans, especially those in the Paul camp, here's a chance to make a difference.

This was my PM:

The Iowa straw poll is Saturday and there's been a block of tickets purchased by donations for eligible Iowa voters if your interested or if you many know someone. It helps give Paul needed press coverage which can help move him up in conventional polls. They need help too.

Check the link...they're looking for Iowans.
https://www.ronpaul2008.com/events/iowa-straw-poll/

Taco John
08-08-2007, 09:15 AM
Wow. This is some major expectation lowering for a contest that doesn't include 3 of the 4 front runners in the polls and for a guy whose supporters claim wins most internet polls.

A 3rd place finish wouldn't be all that impressive if you ask me. If he finishes 1st I'm impressed. If he finishes 2nd, he's the best of the rest, which is pretty decent, IMO.


for what it's worth, I agree. I'm not going to lie. I'm going to be disappointed if Paul doesn't at least take second in this poll. His campaign is investing significant resources into this thing, so anything less than a strong showing is a disappointment, in my view.

Cochise
08-08-2007, 10:14 AM
We already have a recxjake... do we need another?

Pat's right though, it sounds like they are trying to lower expectations. You can't stuff the box in a real vote like on the internet (well, unless you're in St. Louis)

Taco John
08-08-2007, 10:34 AM
We already have a recxjake... do we need another?

Pat's right though, it sounds like they are trying to lower expectations. You can't stuff the box in a real vote like on the internet (well, unless you're in St. Louis)



The key difference is that there are people on this forum who are actually interested in Ron Paul.

Taco John
08-08-2007, 10:39 AM
Also, I wanted to comment on your "stuff the box" statement... It's been pretty well established that Ron Paul's support on the Internet is genuine. The question is whether that can translate into action on the ground. That's what this straw poll is about for Paul.

BucEyedPea
08-08-2007, 11:02 AM
Also, I wanted to comment on your "stuff the box" statement... It's been pretty well established that Ron Paul's support on the Internet is genuine. The question is whether that can translate into action on the ground. That's what this straw poll is about for Paul.

That's right it is. There's been no evidence of fixing any polls per those that have run those sites and techies. The net is just a certain demographic or public.

Thought it's funny how the biggest accusers of the misused term "conspiracy" have one of their own here.

Personally, I think people on the net are more intelligent and better informed than the drones who relay soley on conventional MSM or infotainment. If MSM carried more of Paul's message, I think conventional polls would be different. Fact is his war and immigration views are the same as the greater majority of Americans.

Cochise
08-08-2007, 11:47 AM
Also, I wanted to comment on your "stuff the box" statement... It's been pretty well established that Ron Paul's support on the Internet is genuine. The question is whether that can translate into action on the ground. That's what this straw poll is about for Paul.

You're right... we'll see if all these people turn out to be real...

Fishpicker
08-08-2007, 11:57 AM
from nationalexpositor (http://www.nationalexpositor.com/index.php?news=230)

Last week, the National Expositor revealed the Paul camp had more than 20,000 registered volunteers. Today, on the Dale Williams Radio show, Jesse Benton, director of communications for Dr. Paul’s Campaign stated there are now more than 30,000 registered volunteers. In less than one week the Paul Campaign has added an additional 10,000 volunteers This extraordinary ground swell of support has never been seen in a U.S. Presidential election. No other presidential candidate even comes close to that number of volunteers. The main stream media is showing a clear bias by ignoring this amount of support.
----------------------------------

Ron Paul's first TV ad

<object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Tn67Y_00dk0"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Tn67Y_00dk0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object>

StcChief
08-08-2007, 12:08 PM
Like to see this guy come outta head here....

my doubt as Independent can he carry 20%?

htismaqe
08-08-2007, 12:16 PM
There's a groundswell of support here. Even though I can't go, I'm doing my best to spread the word.

Fishpicker
08-08-2007, 12:31 PM
There's a groundswell of support here. Even though I can't go, I'm doing my best to spread the word.

Have you seen the Ron Paul TV ad yet?

Taco John
08-08-2007, 12:35 PM
There's a groundswell of support here. Even though I can't go, I'm doing my best to spread the word.



Is there really? I hope you're right. Would love to hear more about it. Those of us on the outside looking in are pacing around like expectant fathers. I really think this is do or die time. He needs to finish at least 2nd. Anything less is a failure from my perspective.

htismaqe
08-08-2007, 01:07 PM
Is there really? I hope you're right. Would love to hear more about it. Those of us on the outside looking in are pacing around like expectant fathers. I really think this is do or die time. He needs to finish at least 2nd. Anything less is a failure from my perspective.

Romney has been spending a TON of money here because the talk radio people here have spent ALOT of time breaking him down. They've been pretty successful so far. The question is how many of those people look towards Giuliani or look towards a different candidate. I know there's alot of support here for guys like Tom Tancredo (because of the immigration issue) and Mike Huckabee (because the Evangelicals feel like he's their best choice, even though he's a tax fiend).

Cochise
08-08-2007, 01:10 PM
The first couple primaries are going to be really important, I think, because evangelicals are out there without a home right now. I don't think they are aligned solidly behind anyone.

They might just be waiting for someone besides Rudy to emerge as viable.

htismaqe
08-08-2007, 02:15 PM
The first couple primaries are going to be really important, I think, because evangelicals are out there without a home right now. I don't think they are aligned solidly behind anyone.

They might just be waiting for someone besides Rudy to emerge as viable.

Some of the Evangelical leaders in this community are openly supporting Mike Huckabee.

BucEyedPea
08-08-2007, 02:32 PM
Romney has been spending a TON of money here because the talk radio people here have spent ALOT of time breaking him down. They've been pretty successful so far.
This is what worries me about Romney, the tax & spend liberal, he's got a lot of his own dough to throw in it. I heard this worked for Kerry in Iowa and he came from behind. Although it didn't help Romney when he did it in Mass against T Kennedy...but then that's Kennedy country.

Pitt Gorilla
08-08-2007, 02:36 PM
We already have a recxjake... do we need another?

Pat's right though, it sounds like they are trying to lower expectations. You can't stuff the box in a real vote like on the internet (well, unless you're in St. Louis)Where has the box been stuffed?

BucEyedPea
08-08-2007, 02:42 PM
Where has the box been stuffed?
Ya' know what's funny, I never voted in any of those on-line polls after the debates, or the Fox text messaging. Yet! I'm a Paulie Girl.

I have voted in the polls here and one on the net which was a general conservative election site with all the candidates having supporters comment. Paul came up at 60% on that one.

Jenson71
08-08-2007, 03:05 PM
I live in Iowa, what can I do?

Cochise
08-08-2007, 03:32 PM
Where has the box been stuffed?

Internet polls, the text messaging poll after the FNC debate. I am saying I haven't seen him perform except in unscientific polls, which can be easily manipulated if you have enough determined people.

-

OH! Unrelated - Man, I saw the greatest thing the other day. I was driving home on 435, and saw this car with at least 5-6 Ron Paul stickers on it. On the bumper, in the back window, etc. I want to say it was a Chevy Citation, or something very similar. The RP stickers were in the corners of the bumper and back window, and in the center of the back window was a big Confederate flag sticker. As I started to pass him, I look over and the guy is wearing a sleeveless t-shirt and had a mullet and a goatee.

I started fumbling for my phone to take pictures to post here, thinking, oh man the Ron Paul crowd will get a kick out of this, but he exited before I could get them taken.

Anyway, nobody probably cares, but I was thinking of trying to get everyone in DC a laugh out of it.

BucEyedPea
08-08-2007, 04:05 PM
I live in Iowa, what can I do?
I was gonna PM ya' but I didn't think you supported Paul.

If you look at the link I put in this thread earlier there are over 500 tickets to the Straw Poll being donated by supporters of Paul and they're looking for eligible Iowa voters. Gotta be 18 though.

Details in that link with a place to email so you can vote in the Straaw Poll Saturday morning in Ames.

BucEyedPea
08-08-2007, 04:10 PM
Internet polls, the text messaging poll after the FNC debate. I am saying I haven't seen him perform except in unscientific polls, which can be easily manipulated if you have enough determined people.
Please prove how these can be "easily" manipulated.
Every techie, including those who have managed those sites ( not Paul endorsing sites I might add) claim this did not happen on those polls. So explain how that is. I just would really like to hear a solid argument on this since I'm no techie and have had to rely on them who say the opposite.

Further, if that's true for Paul's campaign why didn't it occur for any of the mainstream top tier guys?

Paul supporters are incredibly varied and mixed...which is what a freedom message is likely to attract.

wazu
08-08-2007, 07:42 PM
The TV ad could be better. I have to hope they are appealing to Iowans in ways I can't understand.

Taco John
08-08-2007, 07:44 PM
The TV ad could be better. I have to hope they are appealing to Iowans in ways I can't understand.



It's a conservative commercial on a tight budget...

BucEyedPea
08-08-2007, 07:48 PM
I haven't seen it.

Adept Havelock
08-08-2007, 07:49 PM
OH! Unrelated - Man, I saw the greatest thing the other day. I was driving home on 435, and saw this car with at least 5-6 Ron Paul stickers on it. On the bumper, in the back window, etc. I want to say it was a Chevy Citation, or something very similar. The RP stickers were in the corners of the bumper and back window, and in the center of the back window was a big Confederate flag sticker. As I started to pass him, I look over and the guy is wearing a sleeveless t-shirt and had a mullet and a goatee.

I started fumbling for my phone to take pictures to post here, thinking, oh man the Ron Paul crowd will get a kick out of this, but he exited before I could get them taken.

Anyway, nobody probably cares, but I was thinking of trying to get everyone in DC a laugh out of it.

Not sure when it went up, but there is a Ron Paul for President billboard on the East side of 71 Hwy (facing South) just after the 95th street exit.

Cochise
08-08-2007, 07:49 PM
Please prove how these can be "easily" manipulated.
Every techie, including those who have managed those sites ( not Paul endorsing sites I might add) claim this did not happen on those polls. So explain how that is. I just would really like to hear a solid argument on this since I'm no techie and have had to rely on them who say the opposite.

Further, if that's true for Paul's campaign why didn't it occur for any of the mainstream top tier guys?

Paul supporters are incredibly varied and mixed...which is what a freedom message is likely to attract.

Allow me to rephrase.

Paul's supporters represent a totally different dynamic than the supporters of other candidates. I'd wager they are much more likely be internet users, to have high speed internet, organize efforts such as those I'm talking about with others on the internet, to vote in internet polls, to send text messages. It doesn't mean there's more of them.

What was the number in the Fox poll in the minutes after the debate, he had something like 40%? Are you telling me that he's going to register even half that amount in Iowa? Even a quarter of that amount? An eighth might not be out of the question entirely. Are you suggesting that a scientific poll would show a quarter of that amount of support among likely voters?



I admire much of what he stands for, but for him not to be a factor but demonstrate that he has any hope of becoming a factor in this race, I think he's at least got to poll above five, more like 8 or 9. I'm not sure if two of the guys polling ahead of him will even be on the ballot, and Rudy and McCain aren't even campaigning there. If this Ron Paul thing means something, he needs to get close to 10 with all this stuff in his favor. That would put him near what Gingrich is showing right now, but still in fifth or sixth place. Giuliani, Romney, McCain, and Thompson and Gingrich are all polling higher when their names are asked.

The internet gives you a feel that there might be more people out there for Paul than you might think. If his numbers are going to improve in a 'real' situation, it should show Saturday. If he comes out of Iowa with 4 or 5%, I don't think many people are going to take him seriously and that's why the campaign is sort of setting expectations in advance. They don't want people to expect him to pull a 15 and then be disappointed and the air go out of the balloon.

I'll go out on a limb and say 5% is what I expect from him. Maybe a smidgen higher, but that's what I would guess.

Cochise
08-08-2007, 07:51 PM
Not sure when it went up, but there is a Ron Paul for President billboard on the East side of 71 Hwy (facing South) just after the 95th street exit.

Is that so, I pass sort of near that area on a daily basis, I'll have to check it out sometime.

Adept Havelock
08-08-2007, 07:53 PM
Is that so, I pass sort of near that area on a daily basis, I'll have to check it out sometime.

Bring your flak jacket.

BucEyedPea
08-08-2007, 07:53 PM
Allow me to rephrase.

Paul's supporters represent a totally different dynamic than the supporters of other candidates. I'd wager they are much more likely be internet users, to have high speed internet, organize efforts such as those I'm talking about with others on the internet, to vote in internet polls, to send text messages. It doesn't mean there's more of them.
That's better.

I'd also wager that the top tier candidates get more press exposure and money due to the pacs that support these demographics as well.

What was the number in the Fox poll in the minutes after the debate, he had something like 40%? Are you telling me that he's going to register even half that amount in Iowa? Even a quarter of that amount? And eighth might not be out of the question entirely. Are you suggesting that a scientific poll would show a quarter of that amount of support among likely voters?

I don't know I just wanted to hear a good case showing how they fixed...aka "stuffed the ballot box" of those unscientific polls.

I was actually VERY surprised he got what he got to be honest.
Not that it'd change my vote.

wazu
08-08-2007, 07:56 PM
It's a conservative commercial on a tight budget...

I don't think that's the excuse this time. They have legions of internet followers who would be happy to put something together that has a better hook. And what the hell is with that music? Silence is free.

alnorth
08-08-2007, 08:00 PM
Just received a letter from a Ron Paul supporter today. (I live in Des Moines) This one caught my eye because unlike the usual heap of "please vote for me for president" junk mail, this one had the address hand-written with a military postmark and return address. Basically it briefly talks about how much of a swell guy Ron is, and asking me to RSVP so I can get a ticket to the Ames straw poll this Saturday.

I guess some military Ron Paul supporter who returned from Iraq somehow got my name and address from a Republican mailing list somewhere. I never visited his site, donated money, or gave my address to anyone from the Ron Paul campaign, so if they are sending me this kind of mail, I can only imagine the effort they are putting into it.

Cochise
08-08-2007, 08:02 PM
Bring your flak jacket.

Sheet main, I be loc'd to the muthafuggin core when I be bending them corners.

Cochise
08-08-2007, 08:04 PM
That's better.

I'd also wager that the top tier candidates get more press exposure and money due to the pacs that support these demographics as well.



I don't know I just wanted to hear a good case showing how they fixed...aka "stuffed the ballot box" of those unscientific polls.

I was actually VERY surprised he got what he got to be honest.
Not that it'd change my vote.

I edited to add some more stuff.

I don't want to sound like I have some irrational Paul hate. I would choose him over the democratic candidate. I don't just see him as a serious factor yet.

Adept Havelock
08-08-2007, 08:08 PM
Sheet main, I be loc'd to the muthafuggin core when I be bending them corners.

ROFL

wazu
08-08-2007, 08:09 PM
Just received a letter from a Ron Paul supporter today. (I live in Des Moines) This one caught my eye because unlike the usual heap of "please vote for me for president" junk mail, this one had the address hand-written with a military postmark and return address. Basically it briefly talks about how much of a swell guy Ron is, and asking me to RSVP so I can get a ticket to the Ames straw poll this Saturday.

I guess some military Ron Paul supporter who returned from Iraq somehow got my name and address from a Republican mailing list somewhere. I never visited his site, donated money, or gave my address to anyone from the Ron Paul campaign, so if they are sending me this kind of mail, I can only imagine the effort they are putting into it.

They sent out a request for people who wanted to write letters awhile back. I replied to say I would send 50, and got a bounceback e-mail saying that their e-mail server had been overwhelmed with responses. I thought that meant they would get back to me later, since I never got a "system admin" kind of message, but they never did. I wonder if they actually ran out of names on the list.

BucEyedPea
08-08-2007, 08:10 PM
I don't think that's the excuse this time. They have legions of internet followers who would be happy to put something together that has a better hook. And what the hell is with that music? Silence is free.
I was thinkin' there must be some talent out there who'd do it pro bono and let the top tier pay the big agencies. Heck! I could put a creative team together for him. :hmmm:

BucEyedPea
08-08-2007, 08:12 PM
They sent out a request for people who wanted to write letters awhile back. I replied to say I would send 50, and got a bounceback e-mail saying that their e-mail server had been overwhelmed with responses. I thought that meant they would get back to me later, since I never got a "system admin" kind of message, but they never did. I wonder if they actually ran out of names on the list.
I heard they don't have enough people to answer the phones that ring off the hooks. I may volunteer but I can't just yet.

BTW I wanted to buy some signs and stickers does anyone know where I can pick some up, since contact is so difficult.

I know where I can get the t-shirts.

wazu
08-08-2007, 08:15 PM
I heard they don't have enough people to answer the phones that ring off the hooks. I may volunteer but I can't just yet.

BTW I wanted to buy some signs and stickers does anyone know where I can pick some up, since contact is so difficult.

I know where I can get the t-shirts.

http://www.cafepress.com/RonPaul_2008

BucEyedPea
08-08-2007, 08:17 PM
I edited to add some more stuff.

I don't want to sound like I have some irrational Paul hate. I would choose him over the democratic candidate. I don't just see him as a serious factor yet.
I don't see it as irrational Paul hate. I do see that you don't take him seriously. Nothing unusual there. I just wanted a good case for literally "stuffing ballots" as opposed to just being a certain demographic that looks bigger than it may be.

BucEyedPea
08-08-2007, 08:18 PM
http://www.cafepress.com/RonPaul_2008
Oh my bad! I've been there. That's where I saw the shirts. I just never saw the signs but wasn't on it that long to really check. Thanks though.

ENDelt260
08-08-2007, 08:32 PM
in

<img src="http://lh4.google.com/bwjohnson/RrpuS-nKFMI/AAAAAAAAAf8/OF0kkSrHCog/s800/ron_paul_tshirt.jpg" />

StcChief
08-08-2007, 08:35 PM
Grass Roots for Ron Paul.... chance should be better than Perot.

Fishpicker
08-08-2007, 08:35 PM
Ron Paul Iowa tv spot 2

<object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/H0b2CEZdVDs"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/H0b2CEZdVDs" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object>

Jenson71
08-08-2007, 08:43 PM
in


Ron Paul's the next John Galt.

BucEyedPea
08-08-2007, 08:44 PM
I like this one.
May not be right for Iowa Straw poll though, not sure:

<object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/E_Fsv7iwZRc"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/E_Fsv7iwZRc" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object>

wazu
08-08-2007, 08:48 PM
Grass Roots for Ron Paul.... chance should be better than Perot.

I think he has pretty much tied his chances to getting the Republican nomination, as I know he intends to run for congress as a Republican. (Never heard of somebody running for congress as a Repub, and president as an independent.)

|Zach|
08-08-2007, 11:43 PM
Ron Paul's the next John Galt.
http://www.cordair.com/gaetano/images/as.jpg

Ultra Peanut
08-08-2007, 11:58 PM
Internet =! Real world

Sorry, but reality's going to come crashing down on Paul. I hope it doesn't, but come the **** on.

BucEyedPea
08-09-2007, 12:23 AM
Hey Adept....is this the Ron Paul billboard you saw?

Kansas City Billboard- done by private citizens
http://www.dailypaul.com/files/images/ronpaul-kc.jpg

Maybe he doesn't need as much money.

Fishpicker
08-09-2007, 12:52 AM
Internet =! Real world

Sorry, but reality's going to come crashing down on Paul. I hope it doesn't, but come the **** on.

you can give us the lecture on internet vs. reality as soon as you outgrow the "wrestling is real" Mindset.

alnorth
08-09-2007, 12:55 AM
Hey Adept....is this the Ron Paul billboard you saw?

Kansas City Billboard- done by private citizens
http://www.dailypaul.com/files/images/ronpaul-kc.jpg

Maybe he doesn't need as much money.

There's also a really huge Ron Paul billboard in downtown Des Moines that I have to look at every day on the way to work.

Mr Luzcious
08-09-2007, 12:57 AM
There's also a really huge Ron Paul billboard in downtown Des Moines that I have to look at every day on the way to work.

Nay, it is an honor to look upon it.

Ultra Peanut
08-09-2007, 01:00 AM
you can give us the lecture on internet vs. reality as soon as you outgrow the "wrestling is real" Mindset.Oh, cool. Thanks for giving me retroactive permission dating back to 1991.

Fishpicker
08-09-2007, 01:01 AM
non +

SBK
08-09-2007, 01:38 AM
My brother lives in downtown Des Moines and told me that Ron Paul signs, t-shirts, fliers and supporters are everywhere down there right now.

Taco John
08-09-2007, 12:15 PM
An article excerpt from the Iowa Independent:


Libertarian-Republican Ron Paul of Texas faces a test of whether he can translate his internet support into bodies on the ground in one place at one time. "Our internet efforts have had a positive fund-raising impact," said spokesman Joe Seehusen. "That's allowed us to embrace more traditional efforts in Iowa like direct mail and radio ads." Paul has campaigned little in Iowa other than a high-profile rally in late June after he was excluded from a candidate forum. Yet this week he is making his first multi-day foray across Iowa.


Iowa blogger Noneed4theneed predicts a poor Paul showing:

The number of days Rep. Paul has campaigned dwarfs in comparison to every Republican candidate. To do well in Iowa you need to shake hands, lots of hands. Iowans don't decide on who to support by what they hear on TV and fewer rely on the Internet, which is Paul's strength. The strength of Internet support in Iowa is especially weak in rural areas, which are largely Republican. Iowans that live in rural counties value the opinions of their local paper and their neighbors, and many of these people have never visited a blog. (http://commoniowan.blogspot.com/2007/08/why-ron-paul-wont-do-well-at-ames-straw.html)


"We don't expect to compete with other groups in terms of lavishness" in Ames, said Seehusen. "Dr. Paul, and his message of liberty and freedom, is the main event." With his support largely indigestible by any other Republican candidate, the question for Paul after Ames may be whether he follows the Pat Buchanan precedent of leaving the party.


http://iowaindependent.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=722

BucEyedPea
08-09-2007, 12:23 PM
I agree with meeting the people, shaking hands and holding babies even...people just eat that stuff up and most Americans will vote on that type of thing alone. I've seen members of my family do that, knowing nothing about the candidate. Paul is more cerebal, an intellectual. It's gonna be interesting.

Cochise
08-09-2007, 12:30 PM
[Paul's support is] largely indigestible by any other Republican candidate...

Yes... I don't think there are many people supporting Paul who would vote for one of the other Republican candidates in a million years. A blessing and a curse.. it means that he's bringing new people into the tent, but it also means that he probably won't benefit when other candidates start dropping. I generally see his support as coming from equal parts moderates and anti-war types. I don't see Brownback dropping out or Huckabee dropping out and Paul taking any of those votes. Those people will consolidate under the next closest thing, not move out into Paul's area.

BucEyedPea
08-09-2007, 07:04 PM
I was just googling about the Straw Poll Saturday and came across this....never thought about the Diebold machines.

Help is needed with this “citizens’ exit poll” and you don't have to live in Iowa either to volunteer. So anyone who lives near enough can help. Just putting this up if you wanna do something to help.

****

At 60 vote stations voters will pencil in an oval next to the candidate of their choice. They will enter the paper ballot into a machine that will scan the entire ballot and record the vote. After voting, each voter will place a thumb into a container of purple ink.

After scanning each ballot the machine will deposit the ballot into a “black box” within the Diebold machine. At 6 pm each machine and black box are transported to a centralized “tabulation” room. The door to the room will be closed to the public.

On Tuesday, August 7, 2007, a letter is [was] delivered to the Iowa Republican Party and the State and County Boards of Elections. The letter is signed by various good-government and election reform organizations and holders of $35 tickets that entitle them to vote in the Ames Straw Poll.

The letter says that unless the following 10-point program is agreed to, a court order will be sought to enjoin and prohibit the Ames Straw Poll until the reforms are agreed to.... Citizen Assistance at Straw Poll (http://www.wethepeoplefoundation.org/UPDATE/Update2007-08-05.htm)

The reforms are in the link and seem reasonable.

mlyonsd
08-09-2007, 07:15 PM
Living close enough to Iowa I watch mostly Iowa network tv.

Romney's numbers there are completely based on his ad campaign. It appears to me he has spent waaaaayy more money there than any other candidate from either party. He clearly understands it is a must win state for him.

I finally saw some Paul ads starting early this week.

IMO he is a man before his time. I agree with much of what he says but has a snowball's chance in hell of being the nominee.

Four or eight years from now he could have a chance if he keeps at it.

Ebolapox
08-09-2007, 07:17 PM
in

<img src="http://lh4.google.com/bwjohnson/RrpuS-nKFMI/AAAAAAAAAf8/OF0kkSrHCog/s800/ron_paul_tshirt.jpg" />

wait, I thought chris benoit died?

Cochise
08-09-2007, 07:20 PM
Not I-didnt-win-it-must-have-been-voter-fraud-diebold-is-de-debbil again...

mlyonsd
08-09-2007, 07:25 PM
Not I-didnt-win-it-must-have-been-voter-fraud-diebold-is-de-debbil again...

I think that view is mostly from the other side.

It comes from years of a somebody-screwed-up-and-I-should-have-won;-look-at-me;-everyone-really-should-love-me attitude.

Nightwish
08-09-2007, 07:40 PM
I'm going to watch the Ron Paul campaign very closely. If it looks like he has a chance going into the elections, I may very well switch my vote from Obama to him. It'll be a tough choice, because I really don't want to waste a vote.

BucEyedPea
08-09-2007, 07:48 PM
Living close enough to Iowa I watch mostly Iowa network tv.

Romney's numbers there are completely based on his ad campaign. It appears to me he has spent waaaaayy more money there than any other candidate from either party. He clearly understands it is a must win state for him.

I finally saw some Paul ads starting early this week.

IMO he is a man before his time. I agree with much of what he says but has a snowball's chance in hell of being the nominee.

Four or eight years from now he could have a chance if he keeps at it.
He'll either be too old or be dead by then so forget it.

I say his time is now or never. Although his ideas may wake up the party.

I suspected Romney, was spending a ton of dough. I heard Kerry did that and pulled from behind. What worries me about Romney is that he can throw in a lot of his own dough and I heard he's willing to spend of lot of it to win.

BucEyedPea
08-09-2007, 07:53 PM
Not I-didnt-win-it-must-have-been-voter-fraud-diebold-is-de-debbil again...
Don't be ridiculous!

I'm on record here, going back about a year, as being for a paper receipt for these machines as I think they're a problem. And they are whether you wanna admit it or not.

I also felt this way when I first heard about them...and I went down to count hanging chads in defense of Bush. So I'm not in that camp. I just feel that someday it could go against the Pub, conservative side or any side.

If Paul does not place well, and it's an honest count and everyone feels it is or at least it's out in the open,then it's all okay. How can anyone be against that?That's all folks want.

Taco John
08-09-2007, 08:01 PM
Living close enough to Iowa I watch mostly Iowa network tv.

Romney's numbers there are completely based on his ad campaign. It appears to me he has spent waaaaayy more money there than any other candidate from either party. He clearly understands it is a must win state for him.

I finally saw some Paul ads starting early this week.

IMO he is a man before his time. I agree with much of what he says but has a snowball's chance in hell of being the nominee.

Four or eight years from now he could have a chance if he keeps at it.



Ron Paul is 71 years of age. It's now or never.

Taco John
08-09-2007, 08:03 PM
Not I-didnt-win-it-must-have-been-voter-fraud-diebold-is-de-debbil again...



Are you programmed to protect the Diebold system or something? It amazes me how knee jerk some folks are about protecting the establishment, regardless of the obvious flaws.

Cochise
08-09-2007, 10:33 PM
Don't be ridiculous!

I'm on record here, going back about a year, as being for a paper receipt for these machines as I think they're a problem. And they are whether you wanna admit it or not.

I also felt this way when I first heard about them...and I went down to count hanging chads in defense of Bush. So I'm not in that camp. I just feel that someday it could go against the Pub, conservative side or any side.

If Paul does not place well, and it's an honest count and everyone feels it is or at least it's out in the open,then it's all okay. How can anyone be against that?That's all folks want.

There are paper ballots, so what is the problem? That the door will be locked? I think the door ought to be locked.

Cochise
08-09-2007, 10:35 PM
Are you programmed to protect the Diebold system or something? It amazes me how knee jerk some folks are about protecting the establishment, regardless of the obvious flaws.

I'm just skeptical of conspiracy theories... at least until Olbermann finds the hole where they buried all those votes in Ohio...

Nightwish
08-09-2007, 10:41 PM
There are paper ballots, so what is the problem?
Paper ballots and paper receipts, two different things. Paper ballots are an either/or thing, but they don't represent a paper trail for those who choose to use the electronic ballots.

BucEyedPea
08-09-2007, 11:06 PM
There are paper ballots, so what is the problem? That the door will be locked? I think the door ought to be locked.
The door could still be locked but there should be reps from all camps there to observe things along with any others independent of them.

I don't see what's so unfair about it.

I mean during the 2000 election here in Florida there was a report, and it got on the local radio, that two election poll workers wrote out a bunch of ballots for Gore when the polls closed. That has happened.

BucEyedPea
08-09-2007, 11:11 PM
I'm just skeptical of conspiracy theories... at least until Olbermann finds the hole where they buried all those votes in Ohio...
Ya' know both sides have their conspiracy theories....like the Right's complaints about the media. I wouldn't call that a conspiracy though...as much as it's an agenda.

You do believe in the 9/11 WTC conspiracy of some SA hijackers though, right?

The voting thing, is simply a matter of human's do cheat. I mean come on...it's not a conspiracy. I've heard of this in the 1990's. There's been books on it long before Election 200. How about the allegation by the right that Kennedy's folks cheated in Chicago. It happens. You can't be that naive. I mean really do you not think it was trying to get an edge by Gore by only asking for recounts in heavily Democratic counties here?

Cochise
08-09-2007, 11:22 PM
Ya' know both sides have their conspiracy theories....like the Right's complaints about the media. I wouldn't call that a conspiracy though...as much as it's an agenda.

You do believe in the 9/11 WTC conspiracy of some SA hijackers though, right?

The voting thing, is simply a matter of human's do cheat. I mean come on...it's not a conspiracy. I've heard of this in the 1990's. There's been books on it. How about the allegation by the right that Kennedy's folks cheated in Chicago. It happens. You can't be that naive. I mean really do not think it was trying to get an edge by Gore by only asking for recounts in heavily Democratic counties here?

Just take paper ballots in the room, machine count them with election officials and reps from all camps, and keep the paper ballots for a while.

I don't know what conspiracy theory you're talking about, I don't think I could name one that gets play around here that I subscribe to.

Of course humans do cheat, you only need to look to all the dead people and pets that vote in St. Louis to see that. But I don't see how this situation just screams voter fraud. It doesn't sound like there's a glaring lack of oversight here or anything.

go bowe
08-09-2007, 11:29 PM
you can give us the lecture on internet vs. reality as soon as you outgrow the "wrestling is real" Mindset.well, i for one think that peanut's outgrown all manner of things over the years that i've been here...

and wrestling is real...

BucEyedPea
08-09-2007, 11:38 PM
Just take paper ballots in the room, machine count them with election officials and reps from all camps, and keep the paper ballots for a while.

That's what they're asking basically. I guess you didn't read the link.

I don't know what conspiracy theory you're talking about, I don't think I could name one that gets play around here that I subscribe to.
What was that event that occured on 9/11 in NY at the WTC?
That was a conspiracy: a crime planned by several in secret.

Of course humans do cheat, you only need to look to all the dead people and pets that vote in St. Louis to see that. But I don't see how this situation just screams voter fraud. It doesn't sound like there's a glaring lack of oversight here or anything.
Well who said there was any fraud? The event hasn't taken place yet for that to happen. It was a preventative measure because these machines are more easily rigged, and no one can see it once that button is pushed. This has been documented and no paper trail is left in case contested.

Here, I thought the right liked preventative security measures. :D

BucEyedPea
08-09-2007, 11:42 PM
Ya' know Cochise, maybe it doesn't matter. I just heard Romney has pretty much bought the Straw Poll votes with all his money and will take first place.

I heard overall it comes to about 30,000 votes. I'd think Paul could get at least 10k outta that.

Cochise
08-09-2007, 11:48 PM
What was that event that occured on 9/11 in NY at the WTC?
That was a conspiracy: a crime planned by several in secret.


We don't really need to devolve the discussion into the difference between the act of conspiracy and a conspiracy theory, do we?

wazu
08-09-2007, 11:51 PM
Ya' know Cochise, maybe it doesn't matter. I just heard Romney has pretty much bought the Straw Poll votes with all his money and will take first place.

I heard overall it comes to about 30,000 votes. I'd think Paul could get at least 10k outta that.

If I'm a Ron Paul fan, I'm gonna go take one of Romney's cards, rather than one of the 500 Ron Paul cards. As I understand, once you go in, the card is agnostic and you can vote however you want.

Cochise
08-09-2007, 11:58 PM
Ya' know Cochise, maybe it doesn't matter. I just heard Romney has pretty much bought the Straw Poll votes with all his money and will take first place.

I heard overall it comes to about 30,000 votes. I'd think Paul could get at least 10k outta that.

I wouldn't expect anyone besides Romney to win.

This is a good example of a conspiracy theory. There are plenty of normal, well-adjusted reasons why Romney would win the straw poll. Polling data universally has him ahead in Iowa for at least a month, going back to May from what I can pull up. The other two highest polling candidates aren't campaigning there. Anyone else is a sucker bet. He doesn't need to buy the whole state, it's his already.

Is it more believable that the only guy who spent time there among major candidates would win, or that he's only going to win because he's passing out $20 bills in an alley? Come on. The credulity needed to buy into that is pretty high.

If there are reasonable explanations, and if the result is the expected result beforehand, a conspiracy theory is already having trouble passing the smell test.

The more likely fraud situation would be if Paul came from micro polling numbers to win. Romney winning is believable and expected, Paul winning would arouse more suspicion.

wazu
08-10-2007, 12:07 AM
I wouldn't expect anyone besides Romney to win.

This is a good example of a conspiracy theory. There are plenty of normal, well-adjusted reasons why Romney would win the straw poll. Polling data universally has him ahead in Iowa for at least a month, going back to May from what I can pull up. The other two highest polling candidates aren't campaigning there. Anyone else is a sucker bet. He doesn't need to buy the whole state, it's his already.

Is it more believable that the only guy who spent time there among major candidates would win, or that he's only going to win because he's passing out $20 bills in an alley? Come on. The credulity needed to buy into that is pretty high.

If there are reasonable explanations, and if the result is the expected result beforehand, a conspiracy theory is already having trouble passing the smell test.

The more likely fraud situation would be if Paul came from micro polling numbers to win. Romney winning is believable and expected, Paul winning would arouse more suspicion.

Actually that is not a conspiracy theory, that sounds more like a fact. Participating in the Straw Poll costs $35, so candidates buy up a bunch of $35 tickets and hand them out to their supporters. Ron Paul has purchased 500 himself for this very purpose.

There is nothing sinister about it, and it's not secret at all. Romney has more money, so naturally he'll be spending more on it.

I am interested to see how it goes this weekend. I know the Ron Paul campaign has invested a lot in this poll, so it may be a make-or-break moment for the campaign.

Pitt Gorilla
08-10-2007, 12:47 AM
Paul is finally putting ads on TV and they're horrible. They are poorly produced and focus almost entirely on abortion. I mean, I suppose abortion is a large issue, but I'm not sure it's #1 on Iowans' minds. He doesn't even couch it as a state issue, which would make a lot of sense. Eh, hopefully he'll do well in spite of that.

Taco John
08-10-2007, 01:20 AM
I don't know what conspiracy theory you're talking about, I don't think I could name one that gets play around here that I subscribe to.




That's an interesting response to Buc's question. A sociologist could probably write volumes on your reaction to the concept of "conspiracy."

BucEyedPea
08-10-2007, 07:32 AM
We don't really need to devolve the discussion into the difference between the act of conspiracy and a conspiracy theory, do we?
Oh that's it? Come on Cochise, it has a simple definition. In fact at least hundreds of people get convicted of it each year. People throw the word around carelessly when it doesn't apply and then ignore it when it applies to them.

BucEyedPea
08-10-2007, 07:35 AM
Paul is finally putting ads on TV and they're horrible. They are poorly produced and focus almost entirely on abortion. I mean, I suppose abortion is a large issue, but I'm not sure it's #1 on Iowans' minds. He doesn't even couch it as a state issue, which would make a lot of sense. Eh, hopefully he'll do well in spite of that.
His ads aren't very good. I thought it was the 2nd one that focused on it more though. Maybe, they want to get base votes with the 2nd ad because those guys can be taken from Romney since it's a GOP Straw Poll. Who knows what their motive was because, your right, it's not a top issue for most right now?

BucEyedPea
08-10-2007, 07:39 AM
I wouldn't expect anyone besides Romney to win.

This is a good example of a conspiracy theory. There are plenty of normal, well-adjusted reasons why Romney would win the straw poll. Polling data universally has him ahead in Iowa for at least a month, going back to May from what I can pull up. The other two highest polling candidates aren't campaigning there. Anyone else is a sucker bet. He doesn't need to buy the whole state, it's his already.

Is it more believable that the only guy who spent time there among major candidates would win, or that he's only going to win because he's passing out $20 bills in an alley? Come on. The credulity needed to buy into that is pretty high.

If there are reasonable explanations, and if the result is the expected result beforehand, a conspiracy theory is already having trouble passing the smell test.
No this is NOT a conspiracy theory. Conspiracy by definition involves a crime.
See what Adam said.

The more likely fraud situation would be if Paul came from micro polling numbers to win. Romney winning is believable and expected, Paul winning would arouse more suspicion.
But you don't believe in conspiracy theories?
Just your own or when it fits your idea of what's going on.

BucEyedPea
08-10-2007, 10:27 AM
BTW I was reading today that GOP leaders have said the most enthusiasm in the base is actually for Newt Gingrich (choking) and Ron Paul.

Also, that Rove has advised the top-tier candidates that it's not the war that cost them votes it was corruption. :eek: Wow! Really outta touch 'eh?

Jenson71
08-10-2007, 10:33 AM
On the Lauren Ingraham show today, they said Ron Paul's supporters in Des Moines are doing a great job with marketing, including posters and signs throughout all the bars in Ames.

BucEyedPea
08-10-2007, 10:56 AM
On the Lauren Ingraham show today, they said Ron Paul's supporters in Des Moines are doing a great job with marketing, including posters and signs throughout all the bars in Ames.
I hear on that end they're doing great. God, I wish I could be there.
My kid just got back from Ames area at aunty's.

jiveturkey
08-10-2007, 11:17 AM
Even here in JoCo Kansas there are a lot of Ron Paul signs, way more than any other candidate.

I've always been a dem leaning Independent and I am currently on the Ron Paul band wagon. I would love to see a major shake up in Washington and he's just the guy to do it.

The fringe issues on each side are the least of my worries these days. go ahead and make abortion illegal, just give us a better government.

BucEyedPea
08-10-2007, 11:23 AM
Even here in JoCo Kansas there are a lot of Ron Paul signs, way more than any other candidate.

I've always been a dem leaning Independent and I am currently on the Ron Paul band wagon. I would love to see a major shake up in Washington and he's just the guy to do it.

The fringe issues on each side are the least of my worries these days. go ahead and make abortion illegal, just give us a better government.
There's a lot in my area too like on the highway and other roads, not in my neighborhood though. I gotta get some though.

I think folks are fed up with Washington and that spurs a lot of his support.
But just so you know, Paul feels abortion belongs with the states to deal with not the Feds, although he's personally against it. He a Constitutionalist first and that's how he sees that issue.

I'm not that worried about his less mainstream issues, myself, not with all that needs to be fixed and two other branches of govt to deal with. It'd take more an one term, or even two to get things back to what his ideal would be. He's just what we need though right now or things are going to get worse.

Radar Chief
08-10-2007, 11:23 AM
100.

Been a long time since I got one of these.

BucEyedPea
08-10-2007, 11:35 AM
100.

Been a long time since I got one of these.
Is that a pic of you break dancing? :D

Taco John
08-10-2007, 01:10 PM
TO: Ron Paul Supporters
FROM: Kent Snyder, chairman, Ron Paul 2008
DATE: August 10, 2007 at 1:53 pm ET
SUBJECT: Iowa Straw Poll


The Iowa straw poll will be held tomorrow in Ames. Dr. Paul and his wife Carol are working nonstop, as are campaign staffers and volunteers.

We have only hours left to get Iowans to attend the straw poll and vote for Ron Paul.

A second television ad has been produced.

See our two TV ads and hear our three radio spots. Help us buy more broadcast time.

Go to http://www.ronpaul2008.com today.

patteeu
08-10-2007, 11:59 PM
No this is NOT a conspiracy theory. Conspiracy by definition involves a crime.
See what Adam said.


But you don't believe in conspiracy theories?
Just your own or when it fits your idea of what's going on.

If you're going to wave a dictionary around, you should at least get the definition right. Conspiracy does not involve a crime by definition. It can involve a crime but it doesn't have to.

As for Cochise's use of the term, it seems pretty easy to distinguish between the way he's using it (i.e. nutty or baseless conspiracy theory) and the much broader meaning which would include run-of-the-mill realistic conspiracies (e.g. the criminal gang that conspires to commit a robbery) as well as the nutty kinds.