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View Full Version : worried about the stock market yet???


oldandslow
08-16-2007, 12:07 PM
...just wonderin'

patteeu
08-16-2007, 12:11 PM
Not much, personally. I'm more worried about medicare and medicaid to be honest.

Politically though, I'm a little worried about it. A recession would send voters all the wrong signals right now so I don't want anything triggering one.

Cochise
08-16-2007, 12:13 PM
Well, I haven't liked checking my portfolio every day for the last two weeks or so. But going from near 14k to 13k is only about an 8% decline, and we're doing pretty good considering in 2001 it was below 9k.

But I've got a long-term focus, and an unfortunately long term until retirement.

oldandslow
08-16-2007, 12:15 PM
Patteeu -

This is not a political post at all...and yes, I am worried that the bears are coming out of the woods.

Just as I sold a house a year ago because I believed the housing crunch was at hand, I sold almost all of my stock in the middle of June.

oldandslow
08-16-2007, 12:19 PM
Well, I haven't liked checking my portfolio every day for the last two weeks or so. But going from near 14k to 13k is only about an 8% decline, and we're doing pretty good considering in 2001 it was below 9k.

But I've got a long-term focus, and an unfortunately long term until retirement.

I am not worried about retirement...Really good pension that I have added too. They will probably have to haul me out of the classroom anyway.

Down to almost 12,600.

I made money by buying in 00 and holding until now. However, it is time to take the tax hit, and buy safer investments, imo.

SBK
08-16-2007, 12:20 PM
This mortgage crap is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

I read an article about how the first time mortgage adjustments up (meaning ARM's going up for the first time) will be huge come September through October of next year. Typically this would be $2B-$3B, but this next 11 months will see over $50B per month for each of those months.

With housing markets down, lending much tighter, and millions of people with 1st, 2nd, or 3rd houses they cannot afford.........Can anyone say foreclosure records are at hand?

SBK
08-16-2007, 12:26 PM
I guess my numbers were a little off.....I found the article, I'll highlight the part I was talking about.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/08/01/business/leonhardt.php

But the pool of Americans falling behind on their house payments is starting to widen beyond this initial group, and adjustable-rate mortgages are the main reason. Starting in the spring of 2005, these mortgages began to get a lot more popular, largely because many Americans could not afford to buy the house they wanted with a regular mortgage.

They turned instead to a mortgage that had an artificially low interest rate for an initial period before resetting to a higher rate. When the higher rate kicks in, the monthly mortgage bill typically jumps by hundreds of dollars. The initial period often lasted two years, and two plus 2005 equals right about now.

The peak month for the resetting of mortgages will come this October, according to Credit Suisse, when more than $50 billion in mortgages will switch to a new rate for the first time. The level will remain above $30 billion a month through September 2008. In all, the interest rates on about $1 trillion worth of mortgages, or 12 percent of the U.S. total, will reset for the first time this year or next. A couple of years ago, by comparison, only a marginal amount of mortgage debt - a few billion dollars a month - was resetting each month.

So all the carnage in the mortgage market thus far has come even before the bulk of mortgages have reset. "The worst is not over in the subprime mortgage market," analysts at JPMorgan recently wrote to the firm's clients. "The reason for our pessimism is that loans originated in late 2005 and all of 2006, the period that saw peak origination volumes and sharply decreased underwriting quality, are only starting to reset in large numbers."

Hog Farmer
08-16-2007, 12:40 PM
I follow the commodity markets on a daily basis and the markets for corn and soybeans are driven by factors such as supply,demand,carryover, weather and things of that nature. But Today corn and soybean meal are way,way down. There is speculation that it is being driven by stock market worries, this is the first time I can remember it affecting them this much. Although it has provided me a great opportunity to purchase my needs for the next six months.

Cochise
08-16-2007, 12:41 PM
Hopefully, some of those people who bought more than they can afford have had the sense to get into a fixed rate.

SBK
08-16-2007, 12:46 PM
Hopefully, some of those people who bought more than they can afford have had the sense to get into a fixed rate.

Therein lies the rub.
:shake:

BucEyedPea
08-16-2007, 12:48 PM
Foreclosures at hand? They've been happening as we speak.

Someone who owes me a sizeable chunk of cash bought a house to flip to try to pay me back last fall and it didn't move...too much inventory. It was purchased well below current market value then too. So this all worries me because I need the cash to survive. But I don't know if it's worse to have the cash right now or not with the hidden inflation. Trump says real estate goes up and down...and comes back at some point.

As for the stock market I took mine all out in 2000 and never put anything back in....but that gets into personal issues too.

Taco John
08-16-2007, 12:51 PM
Hopefully, some of those people who bought more than they can afford have had the sense to get into a fixed rate.




Speculation grows that Fed will cut rates (http://www.modbee.com/business/story/44105.html)

SBK
08-16-2007, 01:12 PM
Foreclosures at hand? They've been happening as we speak.



Yes, but you ain't seen nothing yet.

SBK
08-16-2007, 01:13 PM
Speculation grows that Fed will cut rates (http://www.modbee.com/business/story/44105.html)

I've read both sides to this. On one hand, lowering rates will signal inflation, raising rates will be devastating, and doing nothing doesn't help either.

Of course, they can just print billions and billions and hope for the best.....

Would not want to work with the fed right now!

BIG_DADDY
08-16-2007, 03:01 PM
Country Wide will chap your hide.

Chief Henry
08-16-2007, 03:46 PM
Sell, hell no. I'm buying. The market is giving you a 9-12% discount.