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cdcox
09-10-2007, 11:50 PM
Since my playoff predictions will probably have little bearing on the Chiefs this year, I thought I'd do a top 5 draft choice watch instead.

After week 1, I project that we have a 16.5% chance for a top 5 draft choice. This is probably lower than actual, because my early season power ratings are heavily weighted by the Vegas expectation of 7.5 wins this season.

Mecca
09-10-2007, 11:51 PM
I say we are closer to 4 wins than 7..you should factor it that way.

RustShack
09-10-2007, 11:53 PM
DRAFT ACE BOWEN!

cdcox
09-10-2007, 11:55 PM
I say we are closer to 4 wins than 7..you should factor it that way.

I've got another power rating method that would reflect that. I may code that up this week, just to better reflect our draft chances. Within a few weeks the Vegas odds will play a smaller and smaller role any way.

Crashride
09-11-2007, 06:10 AM
oh god the season just started and were already acting like its off-season. I hate the planet during the off season

John_Wayne
09-11-2007, 09:04 AM
With a top 5 pick, we should be able to get a really good kicker, right? :banghead:

Skip Towne
09-11-2007, 09:08 AM
oh god the season just started and were already acting like its off-season. I hate the planet during the off season
That's easily solved. Hit the road.

MahiMike
09-11-2007, 09:12 AM
We should be able to trade down from the 3 spot and get more picks. That way we can draft 7 good punters...

Pushead2
09-11-2007, 09:27 AM
6-10 super bowl champions

cdcox
09-17-2007, 09:56 PM
After this week's games, our odds of a top 5 draft choice have soared to 29%. We're on our way!

Mecca
09-17-2007, 09:57 PM
The drive continues...

cdcox
09-24-2007, 09:49 PM
A bad week for Mecca. The victory dropped our odds of a top five draft pick to 18%. Carl would probably just end up trading it away for Brett Favre anyway.

Mecca
09-24-2007, 09:52 PM
LOL......well considering the next 3 games we'll probably get back on track to this...

If you remember I did count Minnesota as a win in my preseason predictions.

cdcox
09-24-2007, 09:54 PM
LOL......well considering the next 3 games we'll probably get back on track to this...

If you remember I did count Minnesota as a win in my preseason predictions.

And some people call you pessimistic.

Mecca
09-24-2007, 10:37 PM
Honesty is pessimistic sometimes...

wutamess
09-24-2007, 10:59 PM
What about top 10?
I'd like to be around that 7-8 mark myself... too much stock in top 5 players they flop more often than not it seems.

Mecca
09-24-2007, 11:00 PM
We'll miss out on the QB's DT and LT's if we are 8th that would suck...

cdcox
09-25-2007, 06:53 AM
What about top 10?
I'd like to be around that 7-8 mark myself... too much stock in top 5 players they flop more often than not it seems.

About a 37% chance right now.

KCChiefsMan
09-25-2007, 09:32 AM
so will Brohm's stock drop cause louisville has been sucking? or will it not effect him?

Mr. Laz
09-25-2007, 11:37 AM
so will Brohm's stock drop cause louisville has been sucking? or will it not effect him?
i think Brohm's stock drops quite a bit before the draft because he plays for Louisville and he's gonna get the "system QB" rap.

StcChief
09-25-2007, 11:44 AM
5-7 Total Wins likely others in that boat at this point...

Notably The Rams 0-3 missing their LT/LG
their likely Ws are Atl, Browns?

'Hamas' Jenkins
09-25-2007, 11:49 AM
The Rams would most likely pick Glen Dorsey if they got a really high pick....perhaps DeSean Jackson. Then again, given Pace's fragility, perhaps they'd go after Long or Baker :deevee:

HolmeZz
09-25-2007, 11:51 AM
i think Brohm's stock drops quite a bit before the draft because he plays for Louisville and he's gonna get the "system QB" rap.

Louisville has a system QB stigma? Plus he's playing for a 2nd different coach. There are questions I have about Brohm, but system's not one of them.

'Hamas' Jenkins
09-25-2007, 11:58 AM
Louisville has a system QB stigma? Plus he's playing for a 2nd different coach. There are questions I have about Brohm, but system's not one of them.

Any QB that plays in a spread offense will have to answer those questions.

HolmeZz
09-25-2007, 12:06 PM
Holy crap, have you guys ever watched Louisville?

And I still don't think you get that he's played in two different offenses.

Calcountry
09-25-2007, 01:37 PM
Honesty is pessimistic sometimes...Honesty is admitting that the Soviet Union was leagues better than Team USA in 1980, but that still didn't stop us from rooting for them, and it didn't even stop them from winning the gold medal.

Honesty, is admitting to all of us, that you are happy that the chiefs suck.

That you have glee in your heart when Trent's head was slung against the ground like a spiked volleyball. That was great hit Geathers! F##k Yeah!

Mecca
09-25-2007, 04:22 PM
Uh Brohm's college coach is coaching an NFL team, if you think he's going to get system stigma you're nuts.

cdcox
10-01-2007, 09:33 PM
Our chances for a top 5 draft pick have dropped to 5%. This thread is losing its burst.

ChiefsCountry
10-01-2007, 09:39 PM
Our chances for a top 5 draft pick have dropped to 5%. This thread is losing its burst.

It was probally that way the whole time, Arrowhead advantage really helps the Chiefs out.

OnTheWarpath58
10-01-2007, 09:40 PM
I say we are closer to 4 wins than 7..you should factor it that way.

cdcox
10-08-2007, 10:24 PM
Our chances for a top 5 draft pick have dropped to 5%. This thread is losing its burst.

This tread is making a comeback, I tell you. We're up to 9% chance of having a top 5 draft pick. Go Bungul!

cdcox
12-02-2007, 03:36 PM
As of this moment, we have a 15% chance for a top 5 pick.

If we drop the rest of our games, we have better than a 90% chance of landing a top 5 choice!

Go Herm!

Mecca
12-02-2007, 03:37 PM
I was right Austin I was right all along!

Tribal Warfare
12-02-2007, 03:43 PM
if KC gets a top 5 pick, I bet Oher would seriously contemplate to declare.

OnTheWarpath58
12-02-2007, 03:44 PM
if KC gets a top 5 pick, I bet Oher would seriously contemplate to declare.

I'm betting he's gonna declare anyway. Ed Orgeron leaving Ole Miss pretty much sealed the deal, IMO.

Thig Lyfe
12-02-2007, 03:44 PM
As long as we get a top notch tackle, I'll be satisfied.

Tribal Warfare
12-02-2007, 03:56 PM
I'm betting he's gonna declare anyway. Ed Orgeron leaving Ole Miss pretty much sealed the deal, IMO.


If he is, KC will draft him as the BPA in the '08 draft

OnTheWarpath58
12-02-2007, 03:57 PM
If he is, KC will draft him as the BPA in the '08 draft

We can only hope you're right.

If he comes out, he's the best OT in the draft, IMO.

Mecca
12-02-2007, 03:59 PM
Things may change a million times before the draft.....most of us have a rough idea of the top 5 that's about it.

Rain Man
12-02-2007, 04:01 PM
We're going to have a hard time catching the Dolphins, but I think there's a shot with all of the injuries. Maybe it's time to start Tank and Herb the rest of the year, just to see what happens.

Thig Lyfe
12-02-2007, 04:14 PM
Well, I want to see the Dolphins lose out for history's sake, but hopefully a #2 isn't out of reach. We all know Miami will draft idiotically anyway, so all that will be off the board will be a long snapper or something.

KCFalcon59
12-02-2007, 04:16 PM
Herm Edwards=Frank Ganz

OnTheWarpath58
12-02-2007, 04:31 PM
Well, I want to see the Dolphins lose out for history's sake, but hopefully a #2 isn't out of reach. We all know Miami will draft idiotically anyway, so all that will be off the board will be a long snapper or something.

I can see it now.....

Today, the Miami Dolphins drafted the Tim Bugg (Indiana) family......

//Cam Cameron

Tribal Warfare
12-03-2007, 10:33 AM
On a related not how does Ryan Clady rank higher than Oher? Boise State has a weak schedule and he was burned a few times by Hawaii DEs. Where in the hell is this hype coming from?

HolmeZz
12-03-2007, 10:37 AM
Clady shouldn't be ranked higher than Oher.

Coogs
12-03-2007, 10:48 AM
Well, I want to see the Dolphins lose out for history's sake, but hopefully a #2 isn't out of reach. We all know Miami will draft idiotically anyway, so all that will be off the board will be a long snapper or something.

We already know what will happen if we lose the next 3 games anyway. We will be 4-11 with a chance at that #2 draft pick, and we will screw up and beat the Jets in New York. We will fall down to about #5, right behind the 49ers who's pick belongs to the Patriots, and the Patriots will wind up with the best player in the draft.... the player we could have had all to our own if we would have just lost to the Jets.

HolmeZz
12-03-2007, 10:50 AM
Miami's got a lot of holes, but I think they'll take Dorsey.

Zouk
12-03-2007, 11:26 AM
If DeSean Jackson projects as a Hester-level returner but only a marginal help on offense is he still worth a pick in the 6-11 range?

I think I say yes, but I'm not sure.

HolmeZz
12-03-2007, 11:32 AM
If DeSean Jackson projects as a Hester-level returner but only a marginal help on offense is he still worth a pick in the 6-11 range?

I think I say yes, but I'm not sure.

Maybe if you're a team with no holes. He'd make no sense for the Chiefs.

svuba
12-03-2007, 11:41 AM
Well, I want to see the Dolphins lose out for history's sake, but hopefully a #2 isn't out of reach. We all know Miami will draft idiotically anyway, so all that will be off the board will be a long snapper or something.


I think we will be 6-10 if we Loose out.
no way we get #2
I don't expect the Jets, The Rams, the falcons, or the 49ers to have a strong finish

First Round
1. Miami (0-12)
2. New York Jets (3-9)
2. St. Louis (3-9)
2. New England (from San Francisco) (3-9)
2. Atlanta (3-9)
6-9 T. Oakland (4-8)
6-9 T. Cincinnati (4-8)
6-9 T. Baltimore (4-8)
6-9 T.Kansas City (4-8)

HolmeZz
12-03-2007, 11:46 AM
We are likely ahead of Oakland and behind Cincinnati in terms of draft position at the moment. We had the same SOS as Baltimore as of last week so that's a toss-up.

Mr. Laz
12-03-2007, 11:50 AM
everyone should know by now that we will go on a late season winning streak to end the season at 7-9 or 8-8.


here's to pick 15th!! :toast:

ChiefGator
12-03-2007, 03:03 PM
everyone should know by now that we will go on a late season winning streak to end the season at 7-9 or 8-8.


If we do it with Croyle at the helm and Kolby running and getting Sippio involved and getting contributions from Hali, Tank, and Turk, I would love to win the rest of the games.

If we limp along with Huard and don't play young guys and somehow squeek through the next games without even sniffing the playoffs... I would be pissed.

xbarretx
12-03-2007, 03:08 PM
If we do it with Croyle at the helm and Kolby running and getting Sippio involved and getting contributions from Hali, Tank, and Turk, I would love to win the rest of the games.

If we limp along with Huard and don't play young guys and somehow squeek through the next games without even sniffing the playoffs... I would be pissed.

QFT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

cdcox
12-11-2007, 12:21 AM
Our draft order, as things stand now looks like somewhere between 5 and 10...

cdcox
12-11-2007, 12:22 AM
Now, if we lose out, we're golden...

cdcox
12-15-2007, 10:58 PM
We love SF, part I:

Odds as they stand now:

cdcox
12-15-2007, 11:00 PM
We love SF, part II:

Odds if we lose out:

MadMax
12-15-2007, 11:09 PM
everyone should know by now that we will go on a late season winning streak to end the season at 7-9 or 8-8.


here's to pick 15th!! :toast:


If that happens I will not post ever again untill The retards are long gone.. **** that this team has become a joke and is not even worthy of bitching about. If they screw up this draft pick they can suck my freakin privus...

the Talking Can
12-15-2007, 11:10 PM
the 3rd pick would give us so much leverage...please please please

Tribal Warfare
12-16-2007, 12:12 AM
Chris Long , James Laurinaitis, or McFadden. Svweeet!!!!!!

crazycoffey
12-16-2007, 12:28 AM
the 3rd pick would give us so much leverage...please please please


and the price tag for that pick, YIKES!!

HolmeZz
12-16-2007, 12:29 AM
We won't lose out. We'll **** it up. Tomorrow against Tennessee seems like the typical game we'd win when nobody's expecting it.

ChiefsCountry
12-16-2007, 12:41 AM
and the price tag for that pick, YIKES!!

So what, if we get an impact player it would be worth it.

crazycoffey
12-16-2007, 12:45 AM
So what, if we get an impact player it would be worth it.

And just what are the stats for top five picks that become impact players over even just the last 10 years?

Tribal Warfare
12-16-2007, 12:46 AM
And just what are the stats for top five picks that become impact players over even just the last 10 years?


When one has the chance to draft an elite player , you take it no questions asked

crazycoffey
12-16-2007, 12:51 AM
When one has the chance to draft an elite player , you take it no questions asked

I'm only saying, don't bank your hopes on an "elite COLLEGE player"

ChiefsCountry
12-16-2007, 01:08 AM
Why is everyone so freaking scared to draft in the top 5? They cost to much, they will bust. Big freaking deal. There is much as a chance they will turn out good as they will sucking the joint up.

Tribal Warfare
12-16-2007, 01:15 AM
I'm only saying, don't bank your hopes on an "elite COLLEGE player"


Why's that?

mcan
12-16-2007, 01:15 AM
2007
1 Oakland JaMarcus Russell QB
2 Detroit Calvin Johnson WR
3 Cleveland Joe Thomas OT
4 Tampa Bay Gaines Adams DE
5 Arizona Levi Brown OT
----------------------------------------------
2006
1 Houston Mario Williams - DE
2 New Orleans Reggie Bush - RB
3 Tennessee Vince Young - QB
4 New York D'Brickashaw Ferguson - OT
5 Green Bay AJ Hawk - OLB
----------------------------------------------
2005
1 San Francisco Alex Smith - QB
2 Miami Ronnie Brown - RB
3 Cleveland Braylon Edwards - WR
4 Chicago Cedric Benson - RB
5 Tampa Bay Carnell Williams - RB
----------------------------------------------
2004
1 San Diego Eli Manning - QB
2 Oakland Robert Gallery - OT
3 Arizona Larry Fitzgerald - WR
4 New York (G) Phillip Rivers - QB
5 Washington Sean Taylor - FS


Pretty much all of these guys are better than anybody the Chiefs have right now. Except Sean Taylor, who is admittedly not very athletic anymore. It's pretty sad that we whiffed so badly on our last top five choice. Especially considering we traded up.

ChiefsCountry
12-16-2007, 01:26 AM
Pretty much all of these guys are better than anybody the Chiefs have right now. Except Sean Taylor, who is admittedly not very athletic anymore. It's pretty sad that we whiffed so badly on our last top five choice. Especially considering we traded up.

Sims was chosen #6.

Here are the only top 5 picks the Chiefs have had since the merger.

1989 - Derrick Thomas
1988 - Neil Smith
1984 - Bill Maas
1979 - Mike Bell
1978 - Art Still

ChiefsCountry
12-16-2007, 01:35 AM
And just what are the stats for top five picks that become impact players over even just the last 10 years?

Here is the list from 1997 to 2006

1997
Orlando Pace
Darrell Russell
Shawn Springs
Peter Boulware
Bryant Westbrook

1998
Peyton Manning
Ryan Leaf
Andre Wadsworth
Charles Woodson
Curtis Enis

1999
Tim Couch
Donovan McNabb
Akili Smith
Edgerrian James
Ricky Williams

2000
Courtney Brown
LaVar Arrington
Chris Samuels
Peter Warrick
Jamal Lewis

2001
Michael Vick
Leonard Davis
Gerard Warren
Justin Smith
Ladainian Tomlinson

2002
David Carr
Julius Peppers
Joey Harrington
Mike Williams
Quentin Jammer

2003
Carson Palmer
Charles Rogers
Andre Johnson
Dewayne Robinson
Terrence Newman

2004
Eli Manning
Robert Gallery
Larry Fitzgerald
Phillip Rivers
Sean Taylor

2005
Alex Smith
Ronnie Brown
Braylon Edwards
Cedric Benson
Cadillac Williams

2006
Mario Williams
Reggie Bush
Vince Young
D’Brickshaw Ferguson
AJ Hawk

Here is the stats:
23 Superstars
Andre Johnson
Braylon Edwards
Carson Palmer
Charles Woodson
Chris Samuels
Donovan McNabb
Edgerrian James
Jamal Lewis
Julius Peppers
Ladainian Tomlinson
Larry Fitzgerald
LaVar Arrington
Mario Williams
Michael Vick
Orlando Pace
Peter Boulware
Peyton Manning
Phillip Rivers
Reggie Bush
Ricky Williams
Sean Taylor
Shawn Springs
Vince Young

13 - Solid NFL players
AJ Hawk
Alex Smith
Cadillac Williams
Cedric Benson
D’Brickshaw Ferguson
Darrell Russell
Dewayne Robinson
Eli Manning
Justin Smith
Leonard Davis
Quentin Jammer
Ronnie Brown
Terrence Newman

14 - Busts (5 of them QBs)
Andre Wadsworth
Bryant Westbrook
Charles Rogers
Courtney Brown
Curtis Enis
Gerard Warren
Mike Williams
Peter Warrick
Robert Gallery
Akili Smith
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Ryan Leaf
Tim Couch

72% chance of getting a solid NFL player in the top 5. Throw out the QB position, which is 12, and its about a 76% chance.

'Hamas' Jenkins
12-16-2007, 02:07 AM
Mike Bell's family sits directly in front of me.

Man, did he suck.

mylittlepony
12-16-2007, 02:28 AM
We got one of the teams with the best drafting records along with us in the top 5 (if we manage to get there). So does anyone think that the Patriots (arguably the best run franchise the last decade) will keep their top 5 pick?

Tribal Warfare
12-16-2007, 02:48 AM
We got one of the teams with the best drafting records along with us in the top 5 (if we manage to get there). So does anyone think that the Patriots (arguably the best run franchise the last decade) will keep their top 5 pick?


Yes they will, and they'll pick McFadden

DenverChief
12-16-2007, 05:34 AM
Yes they will, and they'll pick McFadden


I thought the Pats lost their 1st round pick in the 08 drafts for being CHEATERS

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?id=3018407

mylittlepony
12-16-2007, 05:37 AM
They lost their pick, not the pick they got last year for trading their 2007 first round pick.

kstater
12-16-2007, 05:54 AM
I thought the Pats lost their 1st round pick in the 08 drafts for being CHEATERS

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?id=3018407


The have the 49ers' first rounder.

cdcox
12-16-2007, 02:27 PM
Updated as of the Sunday early games...

cdcox
12-16-2007, 02:28 PM
And if we lose out (again after Sunday early games)...

L.A. Chieffan
12-16-2007, 02:31 PM
Updated as of the Sunday early games...

If we get the 7th round I'm gonna be pissed.

mylittlepony
12-16-2007, 02:32 PM
So whats SFs SOS they are at 4-10 aswell now but I take it they have a weaker SOS?

OnTheWarpath58
12-16-2007, 02:39 PM
So whats SFs SOS they are at 4-10 aswell now but I take it they have a weaker SOS?

Yes, they do.

Check out my weekly thread. All the tiebreakers are included as of the early game results.

cdcox
12-23-2007, 02:03 PM
No worse than #9, as of this moment.

the Talking Can
12-23-2007, 02:05 PM
No worse than #9, as of this moment.

not good enough...we need to be #4

cdcox
12-23-2007, 02:08 PM
not good enough...we need to be #4

40% chance of being #4 or better.

cdcox
12-23-2007, 02:09 PM
If we lose next week, we are >90% sure to have a top 5 pick.

KC kid
12-23-2007, 02:11 PM
If we lose next week, we are >90% sure to have a top 5 pick.

What do we need to hope for then?

baitism
12-23-2007, 02:13 PM
What do we need to hope for then?

We lose, and all the other bad teams win.

cdcox
12-23-2007, 02:13 PM
Now we are up to no worse than a #8. Things are changing by the moment.

cdcox
12-23-2007, 02:21 PM
What do we need to hope for then?

Victories by SF, Atlanta and Oakland seem to be key.

StcChief
12-23-2007, 02:22 PM
don't see SF,Atl,Chokeland winning today

Mr. Arrowhead
12-23-2007, 02:33 PM
i think the niners have a chance at least to beat the bucs

unothadeal
12-23-2007, 02:40 PM
Baltimore with a pick!

Douche Baggins
12-23-2007, 02:44 PM
Now we are up to no worse than a #8. Things are changing by the moment.

Sweet.

Micjones
12-23-2007, 02:46 PM
We need some help. Go San Francisco!!!
Up 7 - 6...

Bowser
12-23-2007, 02:48 PM
Go Niners! Go Ravens!

cdcox
12-23-2007, 05:38 PM
Things shouldn't change much more this week with the last two games.

As things stand now:

cdcox
12-23-2007, 05:39 PM
If we lose next week:

Douche Baggins
12-23-2007, 05:40 PM
Wow. The 4th pick would almost guarantee Ellis or Dorsey.

Bowser
12-23-2007, 05:41 PM
Wow. The 4th pick would almost guarantee Ellis or Dorsey.

No way Dorsey makes it to us, even with the fourth pick.

HolmeZz
12-23-2007, 05:41 PM
If we lose next week:

Hey, up your's, buddy!

cdcox
12-23-2007, 05:44 PM
Here's the picture if we win. Not pretty.

The Bad Guy
12-23-2007, 05:44 PM
Did the strength of schedule change at all today?

I have a hard time believing that we didn't move ahead of Baltimore this week with SOS factored in.

If St. Louis or Atlanta wins next week, and the Chiefs lose, we can't move ahead of them via SOS?

cdcox
12-23-2007, 05:45 PM
Hey, up your's, buddy!

FAX always sees boobies.

Douche Baggins
12-23-2007, 05:45 PM
It's settled then. We'll beat the Jets. They are terrible everywhere. We are terrible on one side of the ball and mediocre on the other.

the Talking Can
12-23-2007, 05:46 PM
McFadden/Long/Dorsey....almost lock top 3

#4 gives up Ellis/Long(DE)/All QBs/Laurenitis/everyone

and as important, pick of the litter in round 2 and 3

The Bad Guy
12-23-2007, 05:46 PM
It's settled then. We'll beat the Jets. They are terrible everywhere. We are terrible on one side of the ball and mediocre on the other.

The Jets are better than the Chiefs.

evolve27
12-23-2007, 05:46 PM
It's settled then. We'll beat the Jets. They are terrible everywhere. We are terrible on one side of the ball and mediocre on the other.

Terrible forecasting and news everywhere.

The Bad Guy
12-23-2007, 05:47 PM
McFadden/Long/Dorsey....almost lock top 3

#4 gives up Ellis/Long(DE)/All QBs/Laurenitis/everyone

and as important, pick of the litter in round 2 and 3

I think things will change at the combine. Dorsey could slip, as could Long.

Matt Ryan would be my choice if Long and Dorsey are gone.

Mecca
12-23-2007, 05:48 PM
I think things will change at the combine. Dorsey could slip, as could Long.

Matt Ryan would be my choice if Long and Dorsey are gone.

Cue the Brodie Croyle bandwagon...

Douche Baggins
12-23-2007, 05:48 PM
The Jets are better than the Chiefs.

I dunno. They don't have anyone on their offense that scares me.

the Talking Can
12-23-2007, 05:49 PM
Here's the picture if we win. Not pretty.

man, we HAVE to lose

cdcox
12-23-2007, 05:50 PM
Did the strength of schedule change at all today?

I have a hard time believing that we didn't move ahead of Baltimore this week with SOS factored in.

If St. Louis or Atlanta wins next week, and the Chiefs lose, we can't move ahead of them via SOS?

Yes, SOS is factored in and Baltimore is no longer a concern.

What hurt was Cleveland losing to the Bungals, since it made our SOS better and the Raiders worse.

Yes, if both ATL and St.L win we COULD end up with as high as the 2nd pick. But that would take some other magic for the SOS to work out, similar to what it took for us to make the playoffs last year.

DenverChief
12-23-2007, 06:04 PM
So next week we need

1. to lose to the Jets
2. Rams beat Arizona
3. Atlanta beat Seattle
4. Baltimore beat Pittsburgh


and that should get us a top 5 pick?

cdcox
12-23-2007, 06:10 PM
So next week we need

1. to lose to the Jets
2. Rams beat Arizona
3. Atlanta beat Seattle
4. Baltimore beat Pittsburgh


and that should get us a top 5 pick?

Just losing to the Jets SHOULD get us a top 5 pick (see post #99) The other stuff could move us up to 3 or 4. If we lose here are other things that would help us:

Rams winning
Atlanta winning
Oakland winning
Cleveland winning
Cinnci losing

Probably some other stuff. Baltimore winning is not important if we lose.

Kris Kringle
12-23-2007, 06:11 PM
I can see:
1. the Chiefs losing to the Jets
2. the Rams beating AZ
3. Balt. beating Pitt
I don't see Atlanta beating Seattle

WestCoastReggie
12-23-2007, 06:24 PM
I want a reporter to ask Herm what he thinks about losing on purpose in order to move up in the draft, possibly cuing the "You Play to WIN the Game" speech.

chiefsfan987
12-23-2007, 06:32 PM
I can see:
1. the Chiefs losing to the Jets
2. the Rams beating AZ
3. Balt. beating Pitt
I don't see Atlanta beating Seattle

Well, hopefully Seattle will take out some starters early knowing that they're going to be playing in the opening round of the playoffs. Whether they win or lose they'll be the #3 seed. The game is in Atlanta so there is a chance albeit small that the Falcons can pull it out.

CupidStunt
12-23-2007, 06:45 PM
Dorsey and Jake Long aren't locks to go before KC if it picks at No. 4 overall. If it's the Rams, Falcons and Dolphins ahead of KC, you can bet your bottom dollar that at least one of Jake Long or Dorsey will be available.

Miami will NOT touch Dorsey. Don't kid yourself. No one's paying a rookie DT $35M guaranteed, especially a 1-15 team. Parcells will trade it away or take a QB. The Rams have bigger problems. You think Atlanta is taking a DT? Again, don't kid yourself.

There is so much more to making picks at the top of the draft than who's the best player. P.R. and finance play into the decision as much as ability. Teams like the Falcons desperately need a player who'll put asses in the seats; they're not anything like the Texans who, even with the top pick, were able to make a smart football decision.

Dick Bull
12-23-2007, 06:48 PM
Dorsey and Jake Long aren't locks to go before KC if it picks at No. 4 overall. If it's the Rams, Falcons and Dolphins ahead of KC, you can bet your bottom dollar that at least one of Jake Long or Dorsey will be available.

Miami will NOT touch Dorsey. Don't kid yourself. No one's paying a rookie DT $35M guaranteed, especially a 1-15 team. Parcells will trade it away or take a QB. The Rams have bigger problems. You think Atlanta is taking a DT? Again, don't kid yourself.

There is so much more to making picks at the top of the draft than who's the best player. P.R. and finance play into the decision as much as ability. Teams like the Falcons desperately need a player who'll put asses in the seats; they're not anything like the Texans who, even with the top pick, were able to make a smart football decision.

yeah i see the falcons taking a qb

with a no affiliation with animals clause in his contract

The Bad Guy
12-23-2007, 06:52 PM
I think McFadden would put tons of asses in the seats for the Falcons.

chiefbowe82
12-23-2007, 06:53 PM
so if st louis beats arizona next week..we'll have the number 3 pick?
assuming we take care of business against ny jets and lose. than we'll have the no 3?

SBK
12-23-2007, 07:24 PM
I think McFadden would put tons of asses in the seats for the Falcons.

I was at the mall here today and I heard at least a half dozen guys talking about taking McFadden. Strange you mention that, I think he'd be a great fit here, and could help bring people back to the dome.

(I live in Atlanta)

evolve27
12-23-2007, 07:29 PM
I don't see Clady playing in the Hawaii Bowl on ESPN. He could be a possible reach with our pick nonetheless.

cdcox
12-23-2007, 07:33 PM
so if st louis beats arizona next week..we'll have the number 3 pick?
assuming we take care of business against ny jets and lose. than we'll have the no 3?

No, it is a lot more complicated than that. I'll try to put out a complete list of scenarios.

RedThat
12-23-2007, 07:47 PM
Planeteers I gotta question.

I trust that they are brilliant minds out there, and I actually want to describe a scenario first before asking a question.

Lets say we lose to the Jets next week. That leaves both teams at 4-12. How do they determine the tie-breaker for who gets the higher draft selection?

I heard rumblings around here that it would be based on SOS. If so, who picks before whom? The team with the weaker SOS or the team with the stronger SOS?

I did some homework here.

The Jets as of now have a total opponents record of 117-92

The Chiefs as of now have a total opponents record of 87-71

So regardless, if the Chiefs lose next week, that puts us tied with the Jets. Who gets the tie breaker? And FYI according to NFL.com we pick 6th right now if the season ended today.

Mecca
12-23-2007, 07:48 PM
The team with the weaker SOS picks first because you achieved the record against worse competition making you worse.

RedThat
12-23-2007, 07:50 PM
The team with the weaker SOS picks first because you achieved the record against worse competition making you worse.

So if the Chiefs lose, theyd pick before the Jets?

PriestMVP31
12-23-2007, 08:01 PM
i thought i read somewhere that head to head comes into play if the teams had played each other. With the raiders, we are 1-1, so SOS is the determining factor with them.

got this from a draft board

Are you sure that those Opp. Percentages are correct?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2830466

^ According to this they aren't. That would switch some things around in your order.

This is what I have

1 Miami (1-13)
2 Atlanta (3-11) .473 L
3 St. Louis (3-11) .473 W
4 New York Jets (3-11) .516
5 New England (from San Francisco) (4-10) .469
6 Baltimore (4-10) .508
7 Kansas City (4-10) .516
8 Oakland (4-10) .539
9 Chicago (5-9) .465
10 Cincinnati (5-9) .512
11 Carolina (6-8 ) .447
12 Arizona (6-8 ) .461
13 Philadelphia (6-8 ) .500
14 Denver (6-8 ) .504 L
15 Detroit (6-8 ) .504 W
16 New Orleans (7-7) .484
17 Washington (7-7) .500
18 Houston (7-7) .504
19 Buffalo (7-7) .539
20 Minnesota (8-6) .500
21 Tennessee (8-6) .520
22 Tampa Bay (9-5) .473
23 Seattle (9-5) .488
24 New York Giants (9-5) .496
25 San Diego (9-5) .504
26 Dallas (from Cleveland) (9-5) .508
27 Pittsburgh (9-5) .512
28 Jacksonville (10-4) .527
29 Green Bay (12-2) .492
30 Dallas (12-2) .496
31 San Francisco (from Indianapolis) (12-2) .516
32 Forfeited (by New England) (14-0) .535


The W & L is for the head to head matchup which according to the stuff below is the first tie breaker resulting in the loser getting the higher pick.

Quote:
Draft sequence is based upon team records and strength-of-schedule. In slotting teams with the same record, the team whose opponents had the weakest schedule picks ahead of the team whose opponents had the next weakest schedule and so forth for that group. In the event of ties (teams with the same record and the same strength-of-schedule), the first applicable tiebreaker (head-to-head, divisional record, or conference record) will be employed, with the tiebreak loser getting the higher selection in Round One. If there are no applicable tiebreakers (as would be the case with teams from opposite conferences that did not face each other), ties will be broken by coin toss.

The Super Bowl winner and loser will draft thirty-second and thirty-first respectively. Other playoff teams, as they drop out, move to the end of their group regardless of the strength-of-schedule. If teams with the same record drop out in the same playoff week they are positioned at the end of the group and strength-of-schedule will determine their sequence. Teams coming back into their group in different playoff weeks are placed in the group with the team(s) that advanced further being placed behind the team(s) that dropped in earlier.

Once the first round sequence has been established, in subsequent rounds teams rotate within their won-loss grouping with the team that picked earliest in the previous round moving to the last position of the group while others move up.


^ Tie breaker info. http://www.ourlads.com/draftsequence.cfm

obviously not up to date, but im sure you can work it out from here if you want.

blueballs
12-23-2007, 08:09 PM
Next week we get see a top 5 pick in action
has D'brick picked up his game
I heard bust earlier in the season

HolmeZz
12-23-2007, 08:16 PM
Next week we get see a top 5 pick in action
has D'brick picked up his game
I heard bust earlier in the season

Ferguson's looked pretty bad. His lack of size is an issue. He can be bullrushed.