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Direckshun
09-15-2007, 02:13 PM
http://www.walterfootball.com/picks.php

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Chicago Bears (0-1)
Line: Bears by 12. Total: 34.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 1): Bears -8.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 1): Bears -9.
Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Bears.
Injuries: CHIEFS: OUT: DE Jared Allen. BEARS: OUT: DT Dusy Dvoracek, S Mike Brown.

My local cable company is running a public-service campaign, letting kids speak on TV (mistake No. 1). If you don't see a problem with this, here's an example of the latest ad: In a segment about playing sports, this little 8-year-old Asian girl, whose eyes were so glazed she looked as if she were being controlled telepathically, mumbled, "I like to play soccer because it's gooooood for my boooody." Yeah, I'm sure that's why you play soccer - if you even play soccer. Liar. What does this have to do with this Chiefs-Bears game? I'm secretly wishing that Brian Urlacher catches a glimpse of one of these ads, becomes enraged, hunts down the creators of the commercials and challenges them to a fight to the death.

If Urlacher doesn't see the PSAs, he'll turn his anger toward the Chiefs, as he attempts to get his team back to .500. He won't have much trouble doing so against one of the worst teams in the NFL. If Damon Huard struggled playing the Texans - 22-of-33 for 168 yards and two picks - imagine how terrible he'll fare in Chicago. His offensive line, which couldn't contain Mario Williams, will crumble at the hands of the Bears. Larry Johnson, meanwhile, will continue to be a non-factor, as he's clearly out of shape in the wake of missing training camp. And even if he were ready to go, he wouldn't have much success against Chicago's front seven, which completely put the clamps on LaDainian Tomlinson.

While Huard will play poorly enough to warrant benching, Rex Grossman should have one of those games where people say, "I knew Grossman would come around!" The Chiefs can't tackle, stop the run or defend the pass. Just last week, Andre Johnson torched them, Ahman Green nearly gained five yards per carry, while Matt Schaub threw just six incompletions. Cedric Benson will redeem himself and eclipse the 100-yard plateau, setting up a few Grossman-to-Bernard Berrian bombs.

Much like the Dolphins situation, I don't think people are aware of how horrible the Chiefs are. This spread should realistically be 15 or 16, though public perception won't allow that. This could be a shutout.

The Psychology. Edge: Bears.
Coming off a Super Bowl appearance, the Bears cannot afford to start 0-2.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
Vegas couldn't set this line high enough. The Super Bowl Bears 0-1 facing one of the worst teams in the league? This spread could be 17, and people would still bet on Chicago.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 81% (38,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.
Crappy Quarterback: Damon Huard is 1-3 ATS on the road since 2003.
Chiefs are 9-15 ATS on the road since 2004.
Two Roads (Loss): Current and '06 head coaches are 87-59 ATS on the road following a road loss (Herm Edwards 2-3).
Opening Line: Bears -13.
Opening Total: 34.5.
Weather: Possible showers, 66 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin.
Start Em: Rex Grossman, Cedric Benson, Bernard Berrian, Bears Defense.
Sit Em: Chiefs Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Bears 38, Chiefs 0
Bears -12 (3 Units - Money Pick)
Over 34.5 (1 Unit)
Survivor Pick

Direckshun
09-15-2007, 02:15 PM
In a related story, Walter Football makes a compelling case for the Raiders upsetting the Broncos.

Oakland Raiders (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0)
Line: Broncos by 10. Total: 37.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 1): Broncos -10.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 1): Broncos -10.
Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: RAIDERS: OUT: RB Dominic Rhodes, RB Michael Bush. BRONCOS: OUT: WR Rod Smith, DE Kenny Peterson.

Last week, I gave you Eric Mangini and Lynn McGill. This week, I'm offering a look-alike photo featuring Josh McCown and an antagonist from one of the Rocky movies, contributed by Egg, one of the posters on my forum. Check out post No. 8.

The Broncos are yet another team that the public is reading incorrectly. Maybe it's just me, but I don't like a squad that can't apply pressure on the quarterback; struggles to stop the run; maintains only one quality defensive back (Dre' Bly is vastly overrated, while John Lynch and Nick Ferguson are extremely old); employs an inexperienced and overweight quarterback; and maintains only one reliable receiving option. Denver's defense isn't that good, and the Raiders proved they can score. LaMont Jordan is completely healthy again, so look for him to rush for at least 100 yards, opening the play-action door for Ivan Drago, Daunte Culpepper or whoever starts for Oakland.

As I alluded to in that previous paragraph, Jay Cutler is green and looks out of shape. Granted, he played extremely well last week - he went 23-of-39, 304 yards, one touchdown and one pick - but I don't think he's ready to be a 10-point favorite over a stout defense just yet. I know the Raiders surrendered 36 points to the Lions last week, but Detroit has one of the premier offenses in the NFL. Denver only managed 15 against Buffalo's horrendous and injury-laden defense. Oakland should be able to hold Travis Henry to three yards per carry, forcing Cutler into unfavorable throwing downs. The Raiders' amazing secondary shouldn't have a problem with a receiving corps that has nothing beyond Javon Walker.

This is my upset of the week. The Broncos, coming off an emotional, last-second victory on the road, are being backed by the public and are going against a rival that hates them more than any other team in the NFL. If that's not a recipe for a complete shocker, I don't know what is.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.
Big psychological edge to Oakland. The Broncos are coming off a last-second victory on the road, meaning this is an Emotional Letdown. Plus, they have Jacksonville next week. Why would they pay attention to the Raiders? Oakland, meanwhile, hates Denver with a passion and will undoubtedly bring 110 percent.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
No one's crazy enough to bet on the Raiders. And, as we witnessed last week, the public loves the Broncos for whatever reason. I can't seem to figure out why.

Percentage of money on Denver: 80% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
History: Broncos have won 15 of the last 19 meetings (Raiders 2-0 ATS in 2006).
Statfox Trend: Broncos are a home favorite that is coming off a 1-3 point road win. (Teams 16-33 ATS in that situation since 2000).
Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 41-29 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002.
Broncos are 3-11 ATS as a favorite since 2006.
Opening Line: Broncos -9.
Opening Total: 37.5.
Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 78 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin.
Start Em: LaMont Jordan, Ronald Curry, Raiders Defense.
Sit Em: Broncos Defense.

Prediction: Raiders 23, Broncos 20
Raiders +10 (5 Units - Double Money Pick)
Over 37.5 (.5 Units)

blueballs
09-15-2007, 02:15 PM
How long before your mascara runs

Mile High Mania
09-15-2007, 02:16 PM
Yes... quite compelling. Denver is now fawked.

Bowser
09-15-2007, 02:17 PM
LET ME HEAR YOUR WAR CRY!!!

Rain Man
09-15-2007, 02:17 PM
You're on crack.

Chiefs 74, Bears 0.

The Bears will almost get a safety at the end of the game when Colquitt takes a snap and runs toward his own end zone, but Colquitt will be caught and spun around, and confused and thinking he's taking a safety, he'll run for the final Chiefs touchdown.

Bowser
09-15-2007, 02:19 PM
You're on crack.

Chiefs 74, Bears 0.

The Bears will almost get a safety at the end of the game when Colquitt takes a snap and runs toward his own end zone, but Colquitt will be caught and spun around, and confused and thinking he's taking a safety, he'll run for the final Chiefs touchdown.

I'm a big fan of Madden '05, too.

Priest4Prez
09-15-2007, 02:25 PM
Will this week be the week we hear TOUCHDOWN KANSAS CITY???

Bowser
09-15-2007, 02:32 PM
Will this week be the week we hear TOUCHDOWN KANSAS CITY???

We just did!

Chiefs Pantalones
09-15-2007, 02:33 PM
This is the Chargers divison, we're all just living in it. Seriously.

Direckshun
09-15-2007, 02:43 PM
This is the Chargers divison, we're all just living in it. Seriously.
Really going out on a limb, there.

Chiefs Pantalones
09-15-2007, 02:52 PM
Really going out on a limb, there.

It has become apparent to me that alot on this BB think we're actually going to the playoffs this year. Morons, they are. We aren't doing shit until Clark cleans house, or some other miracle happens.

Direckshun
09-15-2007, 02:56 PM
It has become apparent to me that alot on this BB think we're actually going to the playoffs this year. Morons, they are. We aren't doing shit until Clark cleans house, or some other miracle happens.
So, we're not going to the playoffs?

Again, you are such a brave soul.

Come back when you have an opinion 90% of the planet doesn't share.

Chiefs Pantalones
09-15-2007, 03:07 PM
So, we're not going to the playoffs?

Again, you are such a brave soul.

Come back when you have an opinion 90% of the planet doesn't share.

Some think we're fine. Some think Herm is the answer.

I love idiots.

Halfcan
09-15-2007, 03:14 PM
I hope we win a game this year.

Direckshun
09-15-2007, 03:14 PM
Some think we're fine. Some think Herm is the answer.

I love idiots.
Unless you've got some sort of plan for cleansing the world of homers, you're going to have those morons in every fanbase.

Chiefs Pantalones
09-15-2007, 03:28 PM
Unless you've got some sort of plan for cleansing the world of homers, you're going to have those morons in every fanbase.

Four words to help them get cleansed...

Herm Edwards Damon Huard

NUMBER7
09-15-2007, 05:55 PM
What a moronic pick...DA couldn't get the injury report right....yeah this looks reliable.