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Mike
10-04-2000, 06:10 PM
Before the season almost everyone, myself included were picking around 9-7 or worse. I think it would be neat to post your original estimation and compare it to your current one. I honestly don't remember ever posting mine (if someone cut and pasted it feel free to remind me http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/smile.gif ), but it was along the lines of 9-7. Now I think we have a good chance to go 11-5. Really.

OAKLAND RAIDERS
ST. LOUIS RAMS
at Seattle Seahawks
at Oakland Raiders
at San Francisco 49ers
BUFFALO BILLS
at San Diego Chargers
at New England Patriots
CAROLINA PANTHERS
DENVER BRONCOS
at Atlanta Falcons

Here's how I see it:

Wins
Oakland - at least one
Seattle - Huard starting at QB? (this is still a little optimistic)
San Francisco - Grbac will be pumped for this game (I'm definitlely NOT overlooking this team, no matter their record)
San Diego - This is a given
New England - This is another one not to overlook because Belichick's involved, but I think our DL will win it for us.
Carolina - I definitely overrated them this year.
Denver - AT Arrowhead. I like our chances vs Gunther's b!tch
Atlanta - Pretty much a given

Losses
St Louis - I'm as optimistic as the next guy but...
Oakland - Hopefully I'm wrong
Buffalo - This could go either way, but so could some I put in the win column.

So what are everyone else's expectations? Am I too optimistic?

<BR>

ddpatterson
10-04-2000, 06:20 PM
G-Man,
You and I are pretty much on the same page. I think, however, I like our chances of sweeping the Raiders better than the Hawks. Personally, I think the Hawks will be a better team with Huard than with Kitna. He's got a stronger arm, more mobility, and is smarter, IMO. That will make a win against the Hawks in their house tough to achieve.

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Red Eyes
Chinn Up.

[b]The SitCom must die!!</B>

AustinChief
10-04-2000, 06:24 PM
G-man,

I originally predicted 10-6 once we finished the draft. I think that's a fairly safe bet still. I think we could lose to St. Louis, Seattle, Buffalo and maybe New England if we are looking past them to the next games. Besides St. Louis, we should romp through the NFC Worst and I think that there's some payback waiting for the Raiders.


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Misplaced Chiefs Fan
Red and Gold on the Warpath
Nightwolf Graphics (http://www.nightwolfgraphics.com)

Fort Chief
10-04-2000, 07:02 PM
9-7 or 10-6 with a typical first round exit from the playoffs.

Desert Chief
10-04-2000, 07:19 PM
OK,

I will admit it.I predicted a 5-11 season after we lost some of the key players such as DT, Tongue, Horn etc. This sentiment increased even more after we retained Stock and Raye as our coaches.

I predict the following scenario:

Oakland - payback for Jan.2 loss W
St. Louis - L
@Seattle - L
@Oakland - W
@San Francisco - L
Buffalo - W
@San Diego - W
@New England - L
Carolina - W
Denver - W
@Atlanta - W

that is 10-6, but the chiefs will probably lose one that they shouldn't such as maybe to Atlanta or Denver.


<P>

sd4chiefs
10-04-2000, 07:20 PM
I'm still going with nine wins. I really think 11-5 is too much to hope for from such a young team. I still beleive our schedule is really difficult. Holding on to that win in Tennesse would've been huge. It's amazing how every game is so crucial in football...unlike baseball, hockey, or basketball. Hopefully, your picks are right and mine aren't!!

AZ

[This message has been edited by AZChief (edited 10-04-2000).]

Baby Lee
10-04-2000, 07:43 PM
10-6 usually seems to be the magic number to get you into the playoffs. Anything over that is cake.

Mosbonian
10-04-2000, 08:07 PM
My original was 9-7 possibly worse with bad breaks, absolute best 10-6.

I still say 9-7 with the following losses to go for the rest of the season.

St Louis Rams
Oakland at Oakland
Seattle at Seattle
Buffalo
New England at New England

I think with any type of bad luck (injuries or reversion to pass aversion) we could easily lose the games to Oakland in KC and if we let our guard down we could lose to either Carolina or Atlanta or both.

On the other hand we could with some luck beat Seattle, Buffalo, New England, maybe even two of those three. So in a best case scenario I can see us winning 11 games.

Just my opinion.

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Jim Reynolds
Please no squiggles in my discussion zone!

Yosef_Malkovitch
10-04-2000, 08:51 PM
If we can win 10 of our next 11, I really think this team can go 13-3. Call my psychic.

DaKCMan AP
10-04-2000, 08:57 PM
Kloster - Yeah, I need a nap, in a bad way.

[This message has been edited by morphius (edited 10-04-2000).]

Yosef_Malkovitch
10-04-2000, 09:14 PM
Your material really needs some work, Morph. I don't know what to think of you lately.....

milkman
10-04-2000, 10:01 PM
I now think 10-6 is realistic, hopefully one playoff win before we get spanked in the second round. I agree with MCF that we will likely tank one game that we should win (it always happens) but I think our absence from the playoffs will end this year.

Of course, if we can eek out a couple more wins, we could be looking at the division. The Oakland game next weekend will be a good measuring stick (first real quality team we've seen in a few weeks). I don't see us sweeping Oakland, but if we split I like our chances.

It's too bad we choked against the Titans. I think that loss will come back to haunt us one way or another.

As far as the Rams go, I predict a loss but hope for a win. I think we will certainly present them with their toughest challenge of the season. I hope for crappy weather, tall grass and lots of crowd noise. Perhaps these factors, coupled with a FLAWLESS effort, could hand the boys from the east a nasty surprise. I won't hold my breath, though.

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Frazod

Have I ever mentioned that I hate Denver?

Ugly Duck
10-04-2000, 10:18 PM
The homer in me wants to say that we will finish 14-2, but the realist in me thinks the homer in me is a moron. Our wins as I see them:
Oakland (home)
@Seattle
@San Diego
@San Francisco
Carolina
Denver

Losses:
Oakland (away)
Buffalo
St.Louis
@New England
@Atlanta

For some reason Atlanta with Jamal Anderson scares me. I think Buffalo has the D to shut us down at Arrowhead, Oakland is just good enough this year for us not to sweep them and we don't seem to perform well in primetime games on the road. I think the St. Louis game will be close for about the first half, but our young secondary will not be able to contain the track stars all day.
Unfortunately this puts us at 9-7 and right back where we started this season with a mid-to- late first rounder that probably won't net us the featured back we need.<BR>

10-04-2000, 10:59 PM
OK guys,
Here is my original predictions for this year. I cut and saved it ...so here goes:

W-IDIANAPOLIS, DT Tribute
W-at Tennessee
W-SAN DIEGO Home
L-at Denver Jinx is back
W-SEATTLE (Mon.) Monday at home
OPEN DATE
W-OAKLAND Not again
W-ST. LOUIS MO team
L-at Seattle Tough game
L-at Oakland They split
W-at San Francisco need I say anything?
W-BUFFALO Own them at Home
W-at San Diego Jinx is broken
L-at New England (Mon.) Close one
L-CAROLINA Still feeling down after loss
W-DENVER Of course
W-at Atlanta Gun has them on a roll

Ok I got the first 3 wrong http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/frown.gif
But still happy with 3-2

DoktorSmith
10-05-2000, 08:43 AM
Always the Homer...and therefore reality and the Chiefs can not coexist...I picked the Chiefs to go 10 and 6 or 11 and 5...and I stand by my original prediction...based on the schedule we have left, 7 or 8 out of 11 is very possible...WHEN we beat St. Louis...then I know we will be 11 and 5...that's my story and I'm sticking to it... http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/biggrin.gif

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joe

"The word "genius" isn't applicable in football. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein."
-Joe Theisman, NFL football quarterback and sports analyst

darkchief
10-05-2000, 08:48 AM
9-7 to 10-6. We need to go at least 6-2 at home which means beating either Buffalo or St Louis at home.

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It looks I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue!

AustinChief
10-05-2000, 10:24 AM
Before the Season, I thought Chiefs might go 6-11. Now, looking at the schedule they don't really have a realistic of going better than 9-6. That is if they get lucky one game (I think they uses their luck up in with 2 wins already this season)

My guess, 8-8

Wins will be
San Fran
San Diego
New England
Carolina
Atlanta

That should put the Chiefs at 3rd in the Division. Tied with the Seahawks.

DoktorSmith
10-05-2000, 10:27 AM
Let's see the Chiefs beat the Broncs at home and you expect the Broncs to win here?...typical homer...but hey, I expect the Chiefs to win every week...isn't it fun to be a die hard homer?.... http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/cool.gif

------------------
joe

"The word "genius" isn't applicable in football. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein."
-Joe Theisman, NFL football quarterback and sports analyst

AustinChief
10-05-2000, 10:33 AM
58Forever,

That is one of the most refreshing posts I have read on this BB. Good to know there are others out there with the same devotion to their team.

tooln
10-05-2000, 10:39 AM
I ran a computer simulation to the other night looking at this question. If I rememver correctly, there was about a 20% chance of winning 11 games or more, about a 25% chance of winning exactly 10 games and a 55% chance of winning 9 games or fewer. So based on how the season has gone so far and our upcoming schedule, it looks like a 9 or 10 wins is most likely. At the beginning of the season I figured (subjective,without using the computer) we would win 7 or 8 games, so this is a significant improvement.

Interestingly, I ran a computer simulation to see what our chances of making the playoffs would be if we finished exactly 10-6. The odds were less than 2/3. So we could finish with a 10-6 record and miss the playoffs.

(Admins: I submitted an article for the front page late Tuesday night with this tidbit and a few others, but I haven't seen it posted yet?)<P>

tooln
10-05-2000, 10:47 AM
I ran a computer simulation to the other night looking at this question. If I rememver correctly, there was about a 20% chance of winning 11 games or more, about a 25% chance of winning exactly 10 games and a 55% chance of winning 9 games or fewer. So based on how the season has gone so far and our upcoming schedule, it looks like a 9 or 10 wins is most likely. At the beginning of the season I figured (subjective,without using the computer) we would win 7 or 8 games, so this is a significant improvement.

Interestingly, I ran a computer simulation to see what our chances of making the playoffs would be if we finished exactly 10-6. The odds were less than 2/3. So we could finish with a 10-6 record and miss the playoffs.

(Admins: I submitted an article for the front page late Tuesday night with this tidbit and a few others, but I haven't seen it posted yet?)<P>

Iron Chef
10-05-2000, 10:53 AM
We already beat the best team in the NFL (broncos) on the road, so I gotta figure its all gravy from here.

Chiefs win out the Season.

10-05-2000, 10:58 AM
CD,
I Question your "fuzzy Math" http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/smile.gif
I also have run numerous simulations as to the outcome of the Season. I also enlisted the aid of several friends who are football and computer fans too. Here is our results for the Chiefs:

12-4

Beating the JETs in the first round
Beating the colts in the AFC championship

Beating St.louis 46-10 in the SB.

No I'm sure you are wondering how I came to these Astounding, but true results?????

well I used the most accurate and honeredcomputer simulation available....


MADDEN 2000

tooln
10-05-2000, 11:09 AM
JOhn:

I'm not sure your simulations are statistically valid. For my Monte Carlo simulations, I simulate the season 500 times each week http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/cool.gif. How many simulations per week are you and your friends able to achieve? http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/smile.gif Multiple simulations are necessary to quantify the probability of a given outcome.

Also, my feeling is that your ability to manipulate the controls better than your (human or computer) opponent adds a subjective element to your predictions. If you play with some of the other NFL powers I would expect you could achieve similar or better results.

Finally, have you validated your method by comparing the predictions you generate to the results in the generated on the playing field? For instance, if you were able to make the Chiefs win the Super Bowl with Madden '98 or '99 (or any other version after Madden '69, it would seem to cast your results in a dubious light. http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/tongue.gif

tooln
10-05-2000, 11:15 AM
Gotta quit using the back button; it generates multiple posts. duh! :O



[This message has been edited by cdcox (edited 10-05-2000).]

10-05-2000, 11:17 AM
Very good points indeed CD.

Now I'm not sure as to the number of times we have tried it, But sufice it to say it has been 100+.

Now as to the past years, I have won it. But again this does not taake into effect the Intangables of the Game. ie turnovers, Bad Ref's etc.

Same with the "controls", this to simulates the "intangables" of the Game.

now what does all this mean? Not a damm thing http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/smile.gif Point being my simulations hold just as much weight as your does. http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/tongue.gif

Hence the term "Any given Sunday".
Remember that's why we play the game. Besides who would have predicted a win at Denver?

10-05-2000, 11:18 AM
CD,
Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to bee an *** , only poking fun at the "statistics".

Just a litlle bored today also.

Coogs
10-05-2000, 11:27 AM
My prediction was that we would sweep the division, and I have seen nothin to convince me otherwise. I think(honestly do not remember exactly) that I had us @11-5 and AFC West champs. Win @Arrowhead in Wild Card round, lose on the road in Divisional round. Yeah, yeah, Homer was DREAMIN, big time!! http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/smile.gif

So, as we reach the bye week, I'll predict from here out we will:

Wk 7 vs Oak - WIN
Wk 8 vs Stl - loss
Wk 9 at Sea - WIN
Wk 10 at Oak - WIN
Wk 11 at Sf - loss (3 in a row on West Coast too much)
Wk 12 vs Buf - loss
Wk 13 at Sd - WIN
Wk 14 at Ne - loss
Wk 15 vs Car - WIN
Wk 16 vs Den - WIN
Wk 17 at Atl - WIN

Ends up 10-6. I still can see this happening, folks. Not bad in a retooling, youth movement season!!!

------------------
[b]ct
Give TRich the Ball!!!</B>

tooln
10-05-2000, 11:36 AM
JOhn:

My computer allowed for a 35% chance of winning at Denver. So although it predicted the Chiefs would lose, it did allow for them to pull off the upset about 1/3 of the time. My predictions only give % probability, not absolute outcomes.

I have also done some limited validation of my program. For instance in by week 8 of the '98 season, I accurately predicted 7 of the 8 playoff teams. I need to do some more validation studies to know exactly how accurate the predictions are, but IMHO they are worth more than Madden 2000.

I'm 100% certain that Madden 2000 holds more entertainment value than watching my computer print things like "Chiefs won 10 games but did not make the playoffs 28 times out of 75".

tooln
10-05-2000, 11:43 AM
JOhn:

My post attacking your Madden 2000 predictions was meant tounge in cheek too. I enjoy making predictions of the seasons outcome, and like to share them with others because I think they show a little insight. I know many people look at them skeptically, but they are usually in good agreement with what people think intuitively. I just like to quantify things.

Devin Vierth
10-05-2000, 11:49 AM
Here is a poll that needs to have some more Chief influence. Check out the site and vote.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/superpoll/superpoll.htm



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bk

tooln
10-05-2000, 11:57 AM
I just saw my article posted on the front page. Thanks admins!

TracyT
10-05-2000, 12:08 PM
I've said it before the regular eason started, and I'll say it again: the Chiefs will go 11-5 and win the west.

TracyT
10-05-2000, 12:15 PM
I've said it before the regular eason started, and I'll say it again: the Chiefs will go 11-5 and win the west.

KCTitus
10-05-2000, 12:37 PM
My preseason pick was 5-11 to 6-10, and if we were to get to 9-7 I would be thrilled. At this point it looks like I am going to be thrilled!

John, Last season when the Chiefs ship was taking on water, and most of us were going for the lifeboats (or just plain jumping overboard), cdcox ran his computer posts on a weekly basis on the other board and kept telling us all the Chiefs had a "chance". As it turned out, his computer was pretty darn accurate right to the finish line. Don't be too quick to critique his program! It seems to be pretty darn good!

[This message has been edited by Coogs (edited 10-05-2000).]

KCTitus
10-05-2000, 12:45 PM
cdcox,

Good article right down to the last paragraph!

Then, there it was! The Rams... Thay ain't beat nobody yet! Three of those five teams make up our three wins! Oof!!!

tooln
10-05-2000, 12:55 PM
Thanks Coogs. There was a point last season when I had given up talking about playoff possibilities. Then we had the two big road wins against Denver and Oakland that put us back in the hunt. I had run the simulations before those games that showed what a big lift winning those two games would give us, but I never thought it would happen. What a roller coaster ride the Chiefs gave us last season. This one looks like it could be much the same.