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cdcox
09-21-2007, 10:53 AM
Season A (my predictions using my software):
Start Huard, be most likely to have a 6-10 season, have a 6% chance of making the playoffs (probably as a 5 or 6 seed), learn nothing new about Croyle and most likely have a draft choice in the top 10.

Season B (my predictions using my software and reducing the Chiefs chances of winning all remaining games by 10%):

Start Croyle, be most likely to have a 5-11 season, have a 1% chance of making the playoffs, learn enough about Croyle to assess his long term prospects and most likely end up with a draft choice in the top 5.

Note that the predictions for the two seasons are made based on a combination of Vegas pre-season expected wins for KC (around 7.5) and results of games so far, with an adjustment mead for season B as described above. No biased input on my part whatsoever.

Pitt Gorilla
09-21-2007, 10:54 AM
Everyone takes B given those outcomes.

pikesome
09-21-2007, 10:55 AM
Everyone takes B given those outcomes.

Because A is just stupid in this case.

cdcox
09-21-2007, 10:57 AM
Scientifically, with the best evidence available, that is the real choice.

Fooball Outsiders power ratings, which I believe to be more accurate than mine, are actually gloominer for us.

crazycoffey
09-21-2007, 11:09 AM
and for Hootie's benefit I will say, that if Brodie was making mucho mental mistakes, like Huard I would call for a change after a few games too, maybe a few more than Huard because the kid is going to make some mistakes, but you get the idea. We would at least know that the kid was crap, now we have two losses and still don't know how well the kid plays live in the NFL.

Lzen
09-21-2007, 11:18 AM
Start Croyle, be most likely to have a 5-10 season

Are you saying the NFL would have gone to a 15 game schedule if Croyle became KC's starting QB?

cdcox
09-21-2007, 11:20 AM
Are you saying the NFL would have gone to a 15 game schedule if Croyle became KC's starting QB?

It will be catastrophic, man, catastrophic.

Pestilence
09-21-2007, 11:21 AM
The more realistic scenario is finishing 5-11. Huard would get pulled during the bye week and Croyle would finish the year. Thus allowing us to see if we have the QBOTF and netting us a Top 5 draft choice.

Chiefnj2
09-21-2007, 11:26 AM
Using your software what is the prediction of Thigpen is the QB?

pikesome
09-21-2007, 11:27 AM
Using your software what is the prediction of Thigpen is the QB?

PAIN!



(for someone anyway)

Ari Chi3fs
09-21-2007, 11:29 AM
What does your software say about Carl Peterson?

cdcox
09-21-2007, 11:31 AM
Using your software what is the prediction of Thigpen is the QB?

The software isn't really designed to simulate the effects of individual players. I had to make a guess how much one QB will hurt the team relative to another one. For the purpose of the poll, I guessed that Huard would give us the best chance of winning and used the straight predictions for case A. For case B, I assumed that starting Croyle would drop our chances of winning each game 10% relative to Huard. So if we have a 60% chance of beating a team with Huard, it drops to 50% with Croyle and so on.

cdcox
09-21-2007, 11:32 AM
What does your software say about Carl Peterson?

He sucks.

Ari Chi3fs
09-21-2007, 11:35 AM
He sucks.

Sounds very scientific.

FAX
09-21-2007, 11:36 AM
I voted for Season B based on the best information available at this point in time.

By the way, this thread could really use some graphs that look like boobies.

FAX

HemiEd
09-21-2007, 11:44 AM
I have wanted Brodie to start the Vikings game from the beginning.

This is just stupid having Huard in there now.

Huard does not give us the best chance of winning any longer IMO.

Ari Chi3fs
09-21-2007, 11:47 AM
Season A, start Huard [ 0 ]
Season B, start Croyle [ 18 ]

ROFL

pikesome
09-21-2007, 11:51 AM
I voted for Season B based on the best information available at this point in time.

By the way, this thread could really use some graphs that look like boobies.

FAX

I'd vote for boobies.

Otter
09-21-2007, 11:57 AM
Suprising this many people allowed hootie's little self-serving comment of "shatterd confidence" affect their vote so much.

I worry sometimes. :(

Simplex3
09-21-2007, 12:46 PM
I voted for Season B based on the best information available at this point in time.

By the way, this thread could really use some graphs that look like boobies.

FAX
Really, though, what thread couldn't?

StcChief
09-21-2007, 12:52 PM
pretty much a no brainer 5/6 wins see what Croyle can do.

Simplex3
09-21-2007, 12:56 PM
1 for Huard? Good to see Hootie finally voted.

crazycoffey
09-21-2007, 01:42 PM
1 for Huard? Good to see Hootie finally voted.


ROFL

Short Leash Hootie
09-21-2007, 02:09 PM
1 for Huard? Good to see Hootie finally voted.
didn't vote, this poll is dumb

Short Leash Hootie
09-21-2007, 02:10 PM
there, I made it 2...

and besides, I can reference post after post after post where I said we'd start 1-3 and turn to Croyle week 5 when there is no pressure on him...

cdcox
09-21-2007, 02:27 PM
didn't vote, this poll is dumb

You're right, because there is no middle ground between 9-7 and making the playoffs and 3-13 and Croyle being destroyed.

Short Leash Hootie
09-21-2007, 02:34 PM
Only an idiot would rather play Huard and go 6-10 as opposed to Croyle and 5-11...

THE REASON I made the poll was to see if people rather make the playoffs with Huard or be shitty as hell with Croyle...

I never said the Chiefs would only win 3 with Croyle, I just wanted to see what the consensus was...if Chiefs fans were SO sick they'd rather experience the worst season possible rather than get another #6 seed...

Your poll is worthless...it's basically would you rather win 6 games with Huard, or 5 with Croyle, and everyone with any amount of common sense would choose Croyle...it's as biased as the one I made...

HYPOCRITE

'Hamas' Jenkins
09-21-2007, 02:38 PM
I'd rather inseminate Kate Beckinsale.

cdcox
09-21-2007, 02:42 PM
No it's not biased. I clearly stated that the chances of the Chiefs making the playoffs was six times greater with Huard (6%) than with Croyle (1%). I tried to paint the real situation as accurately as possible. The data used for the evaluations came from outside. The method for analyzing the data was developed before the 2006 season. Suggest to me how I could make it more objective?

pikesome
09-21-2007, 02:43 PM
I'd rather inseminate Kate Beckinsale.

Than one of the two choices or just in general?

KC Tattoo
09-21-2007, 07:08 PM
We could be 0-2 with Croyle, 1-1 with Croyle, or 2-0 with Croyle. We would be one step closer to building this franchise a championship.

Facts are we have not developed our own QBOTF from the draft, with CP as GM. Matt Blundin was a 2nd round pick in 1992, he is the highest round pick for a QB drafted during CP era. Blundin had 8 pass attempsts in two games, bfd. The fact is that CP will not allow us to go with an unknown future, which is what a QB from the draft brings us, it's called fear. CP has done a good job to get Chiefs fans scared with fear of using draft pick QBs of the future. He might make a mistake :rolleyes:
All QBs make mistakes it's how they learn. Peyton Manning would not be so great if he had not learned from his mistakes, 3-13 record his rooky year. The Colts did not give up on him (and built a team around him with mostly draft picks btw). They are Super Bowl Champs. The Colts are a blue print on how to build a team to become Champs.

I don't think the QB has to be a first rounder, but if Croyle was a first rounder then we would be screaming to put him in, they still picked him to be our guy. I'm not going to say Croyle is going to be as good as Manning probable not by my guess, fact is we don't know how he is going to turn out unless he gets a season or two under his belt.

I do know Huard is no Manning or even a top 25 QB so far this year. Fact is Huard is an 11 year backup QB, eleven year back up QB, DH has been a back up QB for XI years. DH WAS A BACK UP QB FOR 11 years. Why in God's name sake does Huard (an 11 year back up QB) give us KC CHIEFS FANS think that we are going to "WIN" a Super Bowl game with an eleven year back up QB???? Sorry folks I just don't see it :shake:

I don't have any expectations of Croyle winning a Championship this year, but GOOD GOD he gives us a better chance than an 11 year back up QB does. Btw, jmhCfo.

htismaqe
09-21-2007, 07:12 PM
if Chiefs fans were SO sick they'd rather experience the worst season possible rather than get another #6 seed...

Wait a second. I thought Chiefs fans were DUMB, not sick?

KCChiefsMan
09-21-2007, 08:00 PM
I got a question for you:

When you poop would you rather:
A. It come out clean and require minimal wiping
B. Break in half and have to wipe for 20 minutes?

well which one is it?

Short Leash Hootie
09-21-2007, 09:11 PM
No it's not biased. I clearly stated that the chances of the Chiefs making the playoffs was six times greater with Huard (6%) than with Croyle (1%). I tried to paint the real situation as accurately as possible. The data used for the evaluations came from outside. The method for analyzing the data was developed before the 2006 season. Suggest to me how I could make it more objective?
It's totally biased.

htismaqe
09-21-2007, 09:15 PM
It's totally biased.

So suggest how it could make it more objective. He left you an open invitation. You're so smart, surely you can come up with something.

Short Leash Hootie
09-21-2007, 09:18 PM
So suggest how it could make it more objective. He left you an open invitation. You're so smart, surely you can come up with something.
Saying the Chiefs will win 6 with Huard and 5 with Croyle and then making a poll asking who you'd prefer is totally one-sided towards Croyle...just like the one I made SHOULD'VE been towards Huard.

Everyone is going to side with Croyle, anyways...that was made quite clear in the poll I made.

htismaqe
09-21-2007, 09:20 PM
Saying the Chiefs will win 6 with Huard and 5 with Croyle and then making a poll asking who you'd prefer is totally one-sided towards Croyle...just like the one I made SHOULD'VE been towards Huard.

Everyone is going to side with Croyle, anyways...that was made quite clear in the poll I made.

Because REALITY is one-sided towards Croyle. You're obviously not aware of cdcox's software...

Short Leash Hootie
09-21-2007, 09:22 PM
Because REALITY is one-sided towards Croyle. You're obviously not aware of cdcox's software...
omg I SEE THE LIGHT

thanks MAQ

don't know what I'd do without you

Here's a poll:

Would you rather have Bill Bellicheck coach us and we go 19-0 or Herm Edwards and go 0-19?!

I wonder what the consensus will be! BOY I CAN'T WAIT.

htismaqe
09-21-2007, 09:26 PM
omg I SEE THE LIGHT

thanks MAQ

don't know what I'd do without you

Here's a poll:

Would you rather have Bill Bellicheck coach us and we go 19-0 or Herm Edwards and go 0-19?!

I wonder what the consensus will be! BOY I CAN'T WAIT.

ROFL

You're a lost cause.

I don't know how anybody can explain it better.

http://nfl-forecast.com/

Short Leash Hootie
09-21-2007, 09:28 PM
THE MAQ
never a loser

KCTitus
09-21-2007, 09:31 PM
The fact KC's not starting Croyle is proof of just how pathetic Edwards is...if it's about 'building' a football program, there would be no question.

htismaqe
09-21-2007, 09:31 PM
THE MAQ
never a loser

ROFL

You're disagreeing with cdcox here. But go ahead and try to make it about me if you feel like it can successfully deflect attention away from the fact that you can't accept reality.

Short Leash Hootie
09-21-2007, 09:32 PM
ROFL

You're disagreeing with cdcox here. But go ahead and try to make it about me if you feel like it can successfully deflect attention away from the fact that you can't accept reality.
THE MAQ
reality is only a nap away

FAX
09-21-2007, 09:47 PM
Do you think Bluto could kick Lex Luthor's ass? Lex Luthor has a lot of brains and maybe some pretty inventive stashed weapons and all, but Bluto doesn't believe in the word "quit". I think that, if Lex Luthor doesn't nail Bluto in the first few minutes, Bluto could wear him down and take him.

FAX

cdcox
09-21-2007, 09:53 PM
Because REALITY is one-sided towards Croyle.

Yep, but Hootie likes to run a lose relationship with reality.