New Ipwa Caucus Poll

[Hoover]

The Des Moines Register has a new Iowa Poll out. While polling a caucus state is always difficult, the Iowa Poll is the one poll I look at.

1. Romney - 29%
2. Fred Thompson - 18%
3. Mike Huckabee - 12%
4. Rudy Giulianin - 11%
5. John McCain - 7%
6. Tom Tancredo - 5%
7. Ron Paul - 4%
8. Sam Brownback - 2%
9. Alan Keyes - 2%
10. Duncan Hunter - 1%
11. John Cox - NA

This is good news for Romney, Thompson, and Huckabee.

This is really bad news for Rudy Giuliani. now I'm sure our resident Rudy employee will be in to spin it by saying he hasn't run TV ads, and Romney has bought it, but the simple truth is Rudy is getting his ass kicked in Iowa, and a 4th place finish on caucus night could be deadly, and thats what I have a feeling could happen.

Its also deadly from Sam Brownback. He's out of money and Alan Keyes tied you. I expect him to be out of the race next. he will not make it to January.

I think its solid news for Ron Paul, but also proved my point that he has a ton of work to do. Paul has to run a very different caucus campaign to be sucessful, but he needs to get his ass to Iowa and campaign hard.

[Hoover]

link

http://dmregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071006/NEWS09/71005048/1001&lead=1

[Mr. Kotter]

If Thompson finishes 3rd or better in Iowa, this thing will be over BEFORE Valentine's day.... :D

I know you aren't impressed Hoover; but Guiliani's candidacy is falling apart....and Romney is simply less electable than either Hillary or Obama. Thompson is the heir apparent.

There is NO WAY pragmatic-type Republicans will "sell-out"....and allow Hillary (or Obama) to be elected. :shake:

[HolmeZz]

Thompson's more likely to get hurt once people actually hear him speak.

[jAZ]

1. Romney - 29%

Who are you working for this year Hoover?

[Mr. Kotter]

Thompson's more likely to get hurt once people actually hear him speak.

"Wee-eell.....that's what....eeeeh, what some people thought.....when, er...the Gipper...was campaigning back in 1979. 'Course, eh....no one is the Gipper. Least of all, little ole me. So, I'm sure I'll be French toast, and all....of course. Wee-eelll, that will be too bad. Too bad. Really. Especially when we ask the key question, 'will you be better off in four years, under Hillary...than under, well...Fred?' What's your honest answer to that question. And, by all means...America; vote your conscience....based on that one question."

--Thompson, at a soon-to-be-held Iowa rally....answering a question from the MSM. :hmmm:

[Hoover]

I'm not with a candidate.

[Hoover]

This is the best nugget for Huckabee

"Among the one-fourth of likely caucus participants who say their minds are made up, Huckabee comes out on top with 19 percent, followed by Romney at 16 percent and Thompson at 15 percent."

[Mr. Kotter]

This is the best nugget for Huckabee

"Among the one-fourth of likely caucus participants who say their minds are made up, Huckabee comes out on top with 19 percent, followed by Romney at 16 percent and Thompson at 15 percent."

So, Romney's money....seems likely to hand him, Iowa.

But a second/third place finish by a guy who "just entered the race" will be the story...in most of the country. :)

[Hoover]

I think the story on Caucus night will either be Romney not finishing first, or who finishes 2nd because its not going to be Rudy. 2nd place in Iowa gets a huge bump going into NH, unless its Romney them he's done

[Fat Elvis]

Maybe if Rudy said, "9/11" a few more times, he'd garner enough support to get the nomination....

[Mr. Kotter]

I think the story on Caucus night will either be Romney not finishing first, or who finishes 2nd because its not going to be Rudy. 2nd place in Iowa gets a huge bump going into NH, unless its Romney them he's done

I'm not a native/residence in Iowa....but I'd be shocked to see Thompson finish lower than 3rd.

Personally, I'm guessing 2nd....with a shot at taking Romney out. If Fred takes Romney out in Iowa, it's his race to lose at that point, IMO. NH, "may" give Romney some hope....but it will be short-lived, IMHO. :hmmm:

[jAZ]

--Thompson, at a soon-to-be-held Iowa rally....answering a question from the MSM. :hmmm:
I know you need to be an optimist. I'm one for Obama. But I'm curious if you are at all pragmatic about the facts of today WRT to Thompson. Are you aware of the emerging storyline he's dictating about himself?

He's teetering on the edge of being a parody of a candidate. I'm sure he can avert that, but it's going to take a decent performance in the next few debates or the media will mock him endlessly for having no idea what he's doing.

All of which begs the question. Do you think Fred Thompson actually has any idea what he's doing right now?

[Mr. Kotter]

I know you need to be an optimist. I'm one for Obama. But I'm curious if you are at all pragmatic about the facts of today WRT to Thompson. Are you aware of the emerging storyline he's dictating about himself?

He's teetering on the edge of being a parody of a candidate. I'm sure he can avert that, but it's going to take a decent performance in the next few debates or the media will mock him endlessly for having no idea what he's doing.

All of which begs the question. Do you think Fred Thompson actually has any idea what he's doing right now?

IMHO, he knows precisely what he is doing (even if his "advisers" and 'staff' don't quite know yet.)

The October-November "bump" that I anticipate, will put the nomination between he and Giuliani....into a toss-up. Once the Christian "right" decides to join the Thompson camp (as many, but not all, will)....Fred will "pull away."

I suspect Fred will be the "prohibative" favorite...by Valentine's Day; he'll have is locked up by St. Patty's Day. Guiliani will be praying for a VP nomination at that point, IMHO.

[Taco John]

4% in Iowa right now is great news for Ron Paul. His campaign there is just taking shape. He's got a lot of work to do, but one thing you'll find about Paul's is that he is efficient. It's not going to take him nearly the time or dollars that it is taking these "front runners" to sell himself or his message.

Here's a great interview with Ron Paul that illustrates the scope of his platform pretty well. (http://www.ronpaulaudio.com/rpaudio/RonPaulFreeCapitalistRadioiInterviewQ&A092007.mp3) There isn't a candidate on the stage on either side of the aisle who has a platform that can compare in the breadth and scope.

[Mr. Kotter]

I think we might see the Christian right go with Huckabee. But with such limited money, they may want to go with a winner.

I'm sure you would agree that Fred isn't the Christian Rights ideal candiate, much more then Rudy, but a lot less then Brownback.

No disagreement; which leaves Fred, by default, getting some important votes...that Rudy is incapable of getting, IMHO.

:)

[jAZ]

IMHO, he knows precisely what he is doing (even if his "advisers" and 'staff' don't quite know yet.)
Do you think he's deliberately trying to look like he has NOT followed national and world affairs for the last 5-10 years?

[jAZ]

I'm sure you would agree that Fred isn't the Christian Rights ideal candiate, much more then Rudy, but a lot less then Brownback.
What makes him any different than Rudy? Seriously, but my impression is they are the same candidate as far as the Religious Right goes.

[Taco John]

According to Google, Iowa is a two man race (http://www.google.com/trends?hl=en&q=Ron+Paul,+Mike+Huckabee,+Rudy+Giuliani,+Fred+Thompson,+Mitt+Romney,+John+McCain&date=2007&geo=usa.ia&ctab=0&ctab=0&sa=N)



Here are the nationwide Google Trends... (http://www.google.com/trends?q=Ron+Paul%2C+Mike+Huckabee%2C+Rudy+Giuliani%2C+Fred+Thompson%2C+Mitt+Romney%2C+John+McCain&ctab=0&hl=en&geo=US&date=2007&sort=0)

[sportsman1]

I went to buy Huckabees book- From Hope To Higher Ground tonight and it was sold out across the metroplex the lady told me. That is a good sign about Huck's campaign.

[BucEyedPea]

Wow! Utah just LOVES Romney!

[alnorth]

I don't believe Thompson is going to do well here on caucus night. Few people have heard him speak, and he's only polling decently because he is that generic "none of the above" candidate right now. When "none of the above" morphs into a guy like Thompson with his listless uninspiring speaking style and his electability issues, the "none of the above" voters will pick someone else.

The Iowa caucus is a huge pain in the ass to vote in, you basically have to sacrifice an entire evening in the middle of winter, so only the highly-motivated die-hards will really vote regardless of how they answered in a telephone poll. What's motivating about Thompson? A little-known "none of the above" candidate may convince a few people to pull his lever in a primary during the 15 minute stop at the poll before work, but the Iowa caucus? Naaah.

[Hoover]

I think Huckabee is going to be the surprise on Caucus night. Sure he doesn’t have the money that Fred, Mitt, and Rudy will have, but he has something none of those can ever buy, he’s a consistent conservative who has the ability to communicate that to caucus goers. I think he gets a top three finish.

Mitt – will come back to earth as candidates start attacking the Iowa frontrunner but the safe money is on Romney winning in Iowa on Caucus night. The problem is the second place finisher will probably be the big story.

Fred – will have some support on caucus night because of his celebrity and the conservative label the media has given him. I don’t think his Iowa team has what it takes to organize for caucus night. That said I think he finishes in the top three and lives to fight another day (New Hampshire).

Rudy – While its true that Rudy hasn’t run a TV ad in Iowa, I don’t know if that’s something I’d be proud of. What Romney has done with those 10,000 TV ads is define himself. That why he does pretty well with the social conservatives. The problem Rudy has is how can he exploit Romney’s biggest weakness (flip flopping core Republican issues) when he isn’t on the right side of any of the big issues (abortion, guns, civil unions) let alone the personal issues in his own life. I know that’s over your pay grade recxjake, but Rudy should have defined Romney, not let Romney define himself. I know you love to site national polls, but Rudy has to get to Feb 5th, and a losses in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina is going to kill Rudy’s campaign.

Ron Paul – I root for Dr. Paul. I disagree with his foreign policy approach, but I love everything else. The difficulty the Paul campaign is going to has is that they really need to run two separate campaigns. The first campaign needs to be directed to the new people that he had energized. This is a group of people he can talk about his anti-war isolationist policies with. This campaign needs to educate these people how to participate in the Iowa caucuses.

The second campaign needs to be directed at people like me, rock solid Republicans who have historically attended the caucuses. This group is turned off when he talks about the war, so don’t talk about it with this group of people, instead talk about eliminating government, and the core Republican principals that Dr. Paul rocks the house with. Basically I would go on a constitution tour across the state aimed directly at these folks.

Paul is the wild card, he could have a rising like Howard Dean had, but Paul’s is better timed because if he pulls it off it could happen on caucus night, but its going to take a huge effort.

[recxjake]

I think Huckabee is going to be the surprise on Caucus night. Sure he doesn’t have the money that Fred, Mitt, and Rudy will have, but he has something none of those can ever buy, he’s a consistent conservative who has the ability to communicate that to caucus goers. I think he gets a top three finish.

Mitt – will come back to earth as candidates start attacking the Iowa frontrunner but the safe money is on Romney winning in Iowa on Caucus night. The problem is the second place finisher will probably be the big story.

Fred – will have some support on caucus night because of his celebrity and the conservative label the media has given him. I don’t think his Iowa team has what it takes to organize for caucus night. That said I think he finishes in the top three and lives to fight another day (New Hampshire).

Rudy – While its true that Rudy hasn’t run a TV ad in Iowa, I don’t know if that’s something I’d be proud of. What Romney has done with those 10,000 TV ads is define himself. That why he does pretty well with the social conservatives. The problem Rudy has is how can he exploit Romney’s biggest weakness (flip flopping core Republican issues) when he isn’t on the right side of any of the big issues (abortion, guns, civil unions) let alone the personal issues in his own life. I know that’s over your pay grade recxjake, but Rudy should have defined Romney, not let Romney define himself. I know you love to site national polls, but Rudy has to get to Feb 5th, and a losses in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina is going to kill Rudy’s campaign.

Ron Paul – I root for Dr. Paul. I disagree with his foreign policy approach, but I love everything else. The difficulty the Paul campaign is going to has is that they really need to run two separate campaigns. The first campaign needs to be directed to the new people that he had energized. This is a group of people he can talk about his anti-war isolationist policies with. This campaign needs to educate these people how to participate in the Iowa caucuses.

The second campaign needs to be directed at people like me, rock solid Republicans who have historically attended the caucuses. This group is turned off when he talks about the war, so don’t talk about it with this group of people, instead talk about eliminating government, and the core Republican principals that Dr. Paul rocks the house with. Basically I would go on a constitution tour across the state aimed directly at these folks.

Paul is the wild card, he could have a rising like Howard Dean had, but Paul’s is better timed because if he pulls it off it could happen on caucus night, but its going to take a huge effort.

Huckabee is not a fiscal conservative.

The rest I agree with. It is October 7th, not Jan. 5... a lot will change between then and now.

Look out for the debate Tuesday.... Make or break for Fred.

[banyon]

According to Google, Iowa is a two man race (http://www.google.com/trends?hl=en&q=Ron+Paul,+Mike+Huckabee,+Rudy+Giuliani,+Fred+Thompson,+Mitt+Romney,+John+McCain&date=2007&geo=usa.ia&ctab=0&ctab=0&sa=N)



Here are the nationwide Google Trends... (http://www.google.com/trends?q=Ron+Paul%2C+Mike+Huckabee%2C+Rudy+Giuliani%2C+Fred+Thompson%2C+Mitt+Romney%2C+John+McCain&ctab=0&hl=en&geo=US&date=2007&sort=0)


Do you think that the Iowa Caucus is going to be decided by the number of Google searches done on their name? That has only marginal relevance at best, especially in a rural, older, more conservative demographic (Republicans). Pretty recxjake-esque attempt to make it look like your guy has a shot, IMO.

[patteeu]

Don't forget that Romney has run 10,000+ tv ads, Rudy 0.

Whose fault is that?

[Taco John]

Do you think that the Iowa Caucus is going to be decided by the number of Google searches done on their name? That has only marginal relevance at best, especially in a rural, older, more conservative demographic (Republicans). Pretty recxjake-esque attempt to make it look like your guy has a shot, IMO.


No. But I think that Google searches give a good look at what is happening on the ground level. I'd wager that people who go out of their way to Google search for political figures are people who are likely to vote. Otherwise, why would they go out of their way to search for a political figure?

But let me make one thing clear: I know my guy has a shot. Ron Paul will finish strong in Iowa. Not because of the Google numbers, but because of the grass roots support he has which noticeably dwarfs all other grass roots efforts. If you don't believe me, just take a drive around your own community (the Ron Paul effect isn't just happening in my town, I'm sure of that much). You think Ron Paul's official campaign is responsible for all of the signs?

Politics is a participatory process. Last I checked, none of us hand over our voter registration cards to Zogby and sit at home waiting for a phone call. Polling numbers don't concern me in the least. Polling only shows of the people they reached, who was willing to plung a button to pick a candidate from a line-up. What polling doesn't do is measure motivation.

People who are discounting Ron Paul because Zogby and Rassmussen tell you so are going to be in for a suprise in short order.

[go bowe]

I know you need to be an optimist. I'm one for Obama. But I'm curious if you are at all pragmatic about the facts of today WRT to Thompson. Are you aware of the emerging storyline he's dictating about himself?

He's teetering on the edge of being a parody of a candidate. I'm sure he can avert that, but it's going to take a decent performance in the next few debates or the media will mock him endlessly for having no idea what he's doing.

All of which begs the question. Do you think Fred Thompson actually has any idea what he's doing right now?no...

[ClevelandBronco]

Huckabee is not a fiscal conservative...

It's difficult to declare that any other candidate is a fiscal conservative with Ron Paul still in the field. The firmest ground anyone else can hope to claim is that he will try to slow down our progress toward European-style socialism.

[SNR]

What makes him any different than Rudy? Seriously, but my impression is they are the same candidate as far as the Religious Right goes.

This is the difference:

[recxjake]

It's difficult to declare that any other candidate is a fiscal conservative with Ron Paul still in the field. The firmest ground anyone else can hope to claim is that he will try to slow down our progress toward European-style socialism.

No, Rudy lower taxes, Huckabee raised taxes.

[BucEyedPea]

Can anyone really imagine Podhoretz ensconced in the Dept of State with Rudy in power? Horrifying.

[patteeu]

No, Rudy lower taxes, Huckabee raised taxes.

There's more to fiscal responsibility than lowering taxes. Cutting spending and controlling the deficit are important too. Your candidate has a strong story to tell on this front and you do a disservice to him by limiting your response to the tax issue.

[patteeu]

Can anyone really imagine Podhoretz ensconced in the Dept of State with Rudy in power? Horrifying.

No, and I doubt that Rudy or Podhoretz can imagine it either. John Bolton, OTOH, would make an outstanding SecState.

[Adept Havelock]

If you don't believe me, just take a drive around your own community (the Ron Paul effect isn't just happening in my town, I'm sure of that much). You think Ron Paul's official campaign is responsible for all of the signs?


All what signs? I've seen a single billboard, one or two yard signs, and a couple of bumper stickers (usually amongst a dozen or more others) in the last six months here in KC.

Hardly a massive grass-roots effort from my persepective. :shrug:
John Bolton, OTOH, would make an outstanding SecState.


Almost as outstanding as appointing Billy Clinton as the administration advocate for Celibacy before marriage.

[banyon]

No. But I think that Google searches give a good look at what is happening on the ground level. I'd wager that people who go out of their way to Google search for political figures are people who are likely to vote. Otherwise, why would they go out of their way to search for a political figure?


Not really. Hell, I've probably Googled "Ron Paul" 30 times trying to reply to your posts, and there's no way in hell I'm voting for the guy.

But let me make one thing clear: I know my guy has a shot. Ron Paul will finish strong in Iowa. Not because of the Google numbers, but because of the grass roots support he has which noticeably dwarfs all other grass roots efforts. If you don't believe me, just take a drive around your own community (the Ron Paul effect isn't just happening in my town, I'm sure of that much). You think Ron Paul's official campaign is responsible for all of the signs?

Politics is a participatory process. Last I checked, none of us hand over our voter registration cards to Zogby and sit at home waiting for a phone call. Polling numbers don't concern me in the least. Polling only shows of the people they reached, who was willing to plung a button to pick a candidate from a line-up. What polling doesn't do is measure motivation.

People who are discounting Ron Paul because Zogby and Rassmussen tell you so are going to be in for a suprise in short order.

Polls are sometimes wrong, but not by forty five points. If you think Ron Paul is winning Iowa, you are out of your mind.

[patteeu]

All what signs? I've seen a single billboard, one or two yard signs, and a couple of bumper stickers (usually amongst a dozen or more others) in the last six months here in KC.

Hardly a massive grass-roots effort from my persepective. :shrug:



Almost as brilliant as appointing Billy Clinton as the guardian of public morality. Or me for that matter.

I've seen more bumper stickers touting Ron Paul than Duncan Hunter, fwiw. ;)

[ClevelandBronco]

There's more to fiscal responsibility than lowering taxes. Cutting spending and controlling the deficit are important too. Your candidate has a strong story to tell on this front and you do a disservice to him by limiting your response to the tax issue.

patteeu is correct, and I'm familiar with the list of tax cuts and tax rate cuts that Rudy boasts. I think recxjake posted that a while back. I'd like to find a similar list of budget cuts that Rudy can claim as well.

One problem with budget "cuts" is that often politicians will claim that they've made "cuts" when they fund a department or program at a lesser increase than the department or program was scheduled to increase.

You see this kind of thing all the time as a boast on one side and an accusation on the other. The headline reads: "Politician X votes to cut funding to Worthy Cause Y." Read the story and you find out that Politician X actually voted to increase funding for Worthy Cause Y by 5% rather than by the 10% increase it got last year.

That's not a cut at all. It's just slower growth, even though both sides like to call it a cut for their own political purposes.

[ClevelandBronco]

RUDY MAKES ¢ENTS DAY THREE:

Mayor Giuliani Turned Deficit Into Surplus

By Slashing City Spending...

Thank you, sir. I should have known that I had but to ask.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

ROFL @ the Information Ministers in this thread.

[trndobrd]

Not to rain on anyone's parade....but Iowa has hardly been a bellweather. Poor performance might weed out the Brownback/Duncan Hunter types, but winning Iowa doesn't lock the nomination.


2000- George W. Bush (41%) defeated Steve Forbes (30%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%) and Orrin Hatch (1%)

1996- Bob Dole (26%) defeated Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%) and Morry Taylor (1%)

1988- Bob Dole (37%) defeated Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush (19%), Jack Kemp (11%) and Pete DuPont (7%)

1980- George H. W. Bush (32%) defeated Ronald Reagan (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%) and Bob Dole (2%)

[Hoover]

Iowa punches three tickets on to New Hampshire. Its Historic role is to scale down the field.

Ask John Kerry, John Edwards, and Howard Dean how important Iowa is...