recxjake
11-09-2007, 08:49 AM
America's Mayor Is on a Roll
By Lawrence Kudlow
While Hillary Clinton is slipping in the polls, Rudy Giuliani is on a roll. This is a big swing of momentum. Even the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll puts the two frontrunners in a dead heat.
Sen. Clinton was hurt badly by her flip-flopping performance in last month's Democratic debate. America's mayor, on the other hand, just got a hugely important endorsement from the Rev. Pat Robertson. The message to social conservatives is clear: It's now OK to vote for Rudy.
Why Rudy? Robertson named out-of-control federal spending, appointing conservative judges, reducing crime and, perhaps most importantly, "the overriding issue (of) defending against (the) bloodlust of Islamic terrorists," as issues that strongly favor Giuliani. On the other hand, he called abortion -- something of a sticky subject for Giuliani -- "only one issue" of importance.
The endorsement also suggests that evangelicals are divided on 2008. Indeed, there's no monolithic movement in favor of any major candidate. This is critical. It means no third-party candidacy from the Christian right.
Recall that Bill and Hillary Clinton benefited enormously in 1992 when Ross Perot swiped 19 percent of the vote (most of those Republican) in the race against Papa Bush. And when Perot ran again in '96, he undoubtedly drained votes from Sen. Bob Dole. (I note that Bill Clinton didn't garner 50 percent of the vote in either of these elections.) But Robertson has very likely removed this dynamic. No third-party gifts for Hillary in 2008.
Robertson is a big score for Giuliani, right when he's gaining ground on Mitt Romney in New Hampshire. That said, Romney is still up 15 points in New Hampshire, according to Scott Rasmussen's poll, and 9.5 points, as per the RealClearPolitics average. So you know what? Good for Romney.
To be very clear, I am not picking sides here. I do think Romney is running a strong campaign. And he's gaining strength as a candidate. I also think John McCain is finding his sea legs on the campaign trail. Romney, McCain and Giuliani are all strengthening what they say and how they say it. But at this writing, Giuliani appears to be at the top of his game.
When I interviewed him last week on CNBC, it marked the fourth time we had sat down together this year. But something was different. Giuliani was more in command of a wide breadth of issues, while there was a lot less talk about his considerable accomplishments as mayor of New York City.
For example, when I asked him what a President Giuliani would do to prop up the sagging dollar, he immediately reeled off a series of proposals: Cut spending, and stop the earmarks. Deregulate wherever possible. Curb the stranglehold of Sarbanes-Oxley on the securities market. Make sure there's no new Sarbox for home-loan mortgage credits. Keep the trial lawyers from launching class-action lawsuits against mortgage-security investors, which would only cripple housing credit in the future. Restore confidence in the economy by stopping Charlie Rangel's mother-of-all-tax-hikes proposal.
That was some list. He also came out for cutting the corporate income tax -- both as a pro-growth job creator and as a way to boost the sagging fortunes of the dollar. He's right on both counts. In particular, he was emphatic about reducing the corporate tax so we can better compete with Europe (read the euro).
Grow the economy. Create more jobs. Strengthen worker wages. Giuliani was on fire. In fact, at the end of the interview, as we were walking off the set, he confided in me that he would suggest an immediate corporate-tax-cut proposal to President Bush. Giuliani wants results. And he knows he can win.
"I can beat her," Giuliani said. "I can run in key states other Republicans can't run in. That's why Democrats are attacking me."
I still believe that it's a strong Republican field. And I still believe Hillary Clinton's message of heavy spending, middle-class entitlements and higher taxes is a Mondale-era loser. But there's no doubt about it, America's mayor is on a roll.
Lawrence Kudlow is a former Reagan economic advisor, a syndicated columnist, and the host of CNBC's Kudlow & Company. Visit his blog, Kudlow's Money Politics.
Page Printed from: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/11/americas_mayor_is_on_a_roll.html at November 09, 2007 - 09:48:00 AM CST
New York Cowboy
By Rich Lowry
Rudy Giuliani's downfall in the Republican primary fight has been much predicted, but little in evidence. He just got the endorsement of the Christian conservative leader Pat Robertson and has stubbornly stayed atop national polls all year long.
His success has spawned theories about the changing nature of the Republican Party, and how social conservatives have "grown up" in their willingness to accept a pro-choice candidate. The key to Rudy's appeal, though, isn't his heterodoxy, but how the sensibility of his candidacy is in the Republican mainstream running from Ronald Reagan through George W. Bush.
Rather than a break with Bush, Giuliani represents stylistic continuity. The cross-dressing, nonchurch-going, pro-choice New Yorker has more in common with the brush-clearing, evangelical, pro-life West Texan than any of the other Republican candidates. He's an urban cowboy, who tamed New York City with his no-nonsense commitment to law and order.
As a top GOP operative says: "Reagan has provided the stylistic model for Republican leaders ever since he first ran: tough-talking, moral clarity, inspirational rather than tactical in rhetoric, someone who will stand up to dangerous foreign enemies. Bush fits in that model, and so does Rudy. This style and these attributes are as important, if not more important, than particular issue stands to many voters."
At this basic level, Giuliani tugs on Republican heartstrings. There is no substitute in politics for being liked, and Republicans simply like Rudy. Rather than the abrasive personality they were told to expect, voters have seen a candidate with the readiest toothy grin this side of Jimmy Carter or Teddy Roosevelt, and he's the only Republican who has consistently demonstrated a spontaneous sense of humor.
In the breadbasket of modern Republicanism, the South, Giuliani has been surprisingly strong. The South is as much a state of mind as a geographic location, and Giuliani, despite being an ethnic Northeasterner, exemplifies it. He taps into the South's anti-elitist, patriotic, pro-military attitudes more naturally than any candidate besides John McCain.
Giuliani is winning the leadership primary in the Republican race. An October Fox News poll asked whether Giuliani is a "strong and decisive leader"; 65 percent said "yes," 20 percent "no" -- the highest rating of any of the tested national figures. By refusing to check the box on every conservative issue, Giuliani has reinforced the idea that he has exactly the attributes of strength and leadership that conservatives crave.
All that said, a similarity to President Bush won't be an asset in a general election. Bush was ill-served by his excessive loyalty to a tight, hermetically sealed group of advisers, and didn't take criticism well. Giuliani has the same tendencies. He gives the impression of being even less interested in diplomacy than the Bush of the first term. The change voters are looking for probably isn't "Bush -- except even more bellicose and disdainful of political opponents."
Giuliani still has major ideological -- and personal -- vulnerabilities. The question is whether the liberal aspects of his record as mayor, together with his spectacularly rocky personal life, will overwhelm his instinctual appeal to Republican voters. We won't know until we see how he fares under what probably will be a barrage of negative ads in the stretch-run of the nomination fight.
He likes to say that a winning Republican coalition consists of economic conservatives and national-security hawks -- pointedly excluding social conservatives. As a factual matter, this is wrong; Republicans can't win national elections without appealing to social-conservative voters who might not buy their free-market economics. As a tactical matter, it's foolish; he should continue to minimize his differences with social conservatives rather than implicitly read them out of the GOP coalition.
Giuliani's best selling point in the primaries is that -- whatever his media coverage says -- he's not something new under the sun. He's an archetype that Republican voters know and love -- the gun-slinging sheriff, just with a different ZIP code.
© 2007 by King Features Syndicate
Page Printed from: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/11/new_york_cowboy.html at November 09, 2007 - 10:19:34 AM CST
By Lawrence Kudlow
While Hillary Clinton is slipping in the polls, Rudy Giuliani is on a roll. This is a big swing of momentum. Even the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll puts the two frontrunners in a dead heat.
Sen. Clinton was hurt badly by her flip-flopping performance in last month's Democratic debate. America's mayor, on the other hand, just got a hugely important endorsement from the Rev. Pat Robertson. The message to social conservatives is clear: It's now OK to vote for Rudy.
Why Rudy? Robertson named out-of-control federal spending, appointing conservative judges, reducing crime and, perhaps most importantly, "the overriding issue (of) defending against (the) bloodlust of Islamic terrorists," as issues that strongly favor Giuliani. On the other hand, he called abortion -- something of a sticky subject for Giuliani -- "only one issue" of importance.
The endorsement also suggests that evangelicals are divided on 2008. Indeed, there's no monolithic movement in favor of any major candidate. This is critical. It means no third-party candidacy from the Christian right.
Recall that Bill and Hillary Clinton benefited enormously in 1992 when Ross Perot swiped 19 percent of the vote (most of those Republican) in the race against Papa Bush. And when Perot ran again in '96, he undoubtedly drained votes from Sen. Bob Dole. (I note that Bill Clinton didn't garner 50 percent of the vote in either of these elections.) But Robertson has very likely removed this dynamic. No third-party gifts for Hillary in 2008.
Robertson is a big score for Giuliani, right when he's gaining ground on Mitt Romney in New Hampshire. That said, Romney is still up 15 points in New Hampshire, according to Scott Rasmussen's poll, and 9.5 points, as per the RealClearPolitics average. So you know what? Good for Romney.
To be very clear, I am not picking sides here. I do think Romney is running a strong campaign. And he's gaining strength as a candidate. I also think John McCain is finding his sea legs on the campaign trail. Romney, McCain and Giuliani are all strengthening what they say and how they say it. But at this writing, Giuliani appears to be at the top of his game.
When I interviewed him last week on CNBC, it marked the fourth time we had sat down together this year. But something was different. Giuliani was more in command of a wide breadth of issues, while there was a lot less talk about his considerable accomplishments as mayor of New York City.
For example, when I asked him what a President Giuliani would do to prop up the sagging dollar, he immediately reeled off a series of proposals: Cut spending, and stop the earmarks. Deregulate wherever possible. Curb the stranglehold of Sarbanes-Oxley on the securities market. Make sure there's no new Sarbox for home-loan mortgage credits. Keep the trial lawyers from launching class-action lawsuits against mortgage-security investors, which would only cripple housing credit in the future. Restore confidence in the economy by stopping Charlie Rangel's mother-of-all-tax-hikes proposal.
That was some list. He also came out for cutting the corporate income tax -- both as a pro-growth job creator and as a way to boost the sagging fortunes of the dollar. He's right on both counts. In particular, he was emphatic about reducing the corporate tax so we can better compete with Europe (read the euro).
Grow the economy. Create more jobs. Strengthen worker wages. Giuliani was on fire. In fact, at the end of the interview, as we were walking off the set, he confided in me that he would suggest an immediate corporate-tax-cut proposal to President Bush. Giuliani wants results. And he knows he can win.
"I can beat her," Giuliani said. "I can run in key states other Republicans can't run in. That's why Democrats are attacking me."
I still believe that it's a strong Republican field. And I still believe Hillary Clinton's message of heavy spending, middle-class entitlements and higher taxes is a Mondale-era loser. But there's no doubt about it, America's mayor is on a roll.
Lawrence Kudlow is a former Reagan economic advisor, a syndicated columnist, and the host of CNBC's Kudlow & Company. Visit his blog, Kudlow's Money Politics.
Page Printed from: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/11/americas_mayor_is_on_a_roll.html at November 09, 2007 - 09:48:00 AM CST
New York Cowboy
By Rich Lowry
Rudy Giuliani's downfall in the Republican primary fight has been much predicted, but little in evidence. He just got the endorsement of the Christian conservative leader Pat Robertson and has stubbornly stayed atop national polls all year long.
His success has spawned theories about the changing nature of the Republican Party, and how social conservatives have "grown up" in their willingness to accept a pro-choice candidate. The key to Rudy's appeal, though, isn't his heterodoxy, but how the sensibility of his candidacy is in the Republican mainstream running from Ronald Reagan through George W. Bush.
Rather than a break with Bush, Giuliani represents stylistic continuity. The cross-dressing, nonchurch-going, pro-choice New Yorker has more in common with the brush-clearing, evangelical, pro-life West Texan than any of the other Republican candidates. He's an urban cowboy, who tamed New York City with his no-nonsense commitment to law and order.
As a top GOP operative says: "Reagan has provided the stylistic model for Republican leaders ever since he first ran: tough-talking, moral clarity, inspirational rather than tactical in rhetoric, someone who will stand up to dangerous foreign enemies. Bush fits in that model, and so does Rudy. This style and these attributes are as important, if not more important, than particular issue stands to many voters."
At this basic level, Giuliani tugs on Republican heartstrings. There is no substitute in politics for being liked, and Republicans simply like Rudy. Rather than the abrasive personality they were told to expect, voters have seen a candidate with the readiest toothy grin this side of Jimmy Carter or Teddy Roosevelt, and he's the only Republican who has consistently demonstrated a spontaneous sense of humor.
In the breadbasket of modern Republicanism, the South, Giuliani has been surprisingly strong. The South is as much a state of mind as a geographic location, and Giuliani, despite being an ethnic Northeasterner, exemplifies it. He taps into the South's anti-elitist, patriotic, pro-military attitudes more naturally than any candidate besides John McCain.
Giuliani is winning the leadership primary in the Republican race. An October Fox News poll asked whether Giuliani is a "strong and decisive leader"; 65 percent said "yes," 20 percent "no" -- the highest rating of any of the tested national figures. By refusing to check the box on every conservative issue, Giuliani has reinforced the idea that he has exactly the attributes of strength and leadership that conservatives crave.
All that said, a similarity to President Bush won't be an asset in a general election. Bush was ill-served by his excessive loyalty to a tight, hermetically sealed group of advisers, and didn't take criticism well. Giuliani has the same tendencies. He gives the impression of being even less interested in diplomacy than the Bush of the first term. The change voters are looking for probably isn't "Bush -- except even more bellicose and disdainful of political opponents."
Giuliani still has major ideological -- and personal -- vulnerabilities. The question is whether the liberal aspects of his record as mayor, together with his spectacularly rocky personal life, will overwhelm his instinctual appeal to Republican voters. We won't know until we see how he fares under what probably will be a barrage of negative ads in the stretch-run of the nomination fight.
He likes to say that a winning Republican coalition consists of economic conservatives and national-security hawks -- pointedly excluding social conservatives. As a factual matter, this is wrong; Republicans can't win national elections without appealing to social-conservative voters who might not buy their free-market economics. As a tactical matter, it's foolish; he should continue to minimize his differences with social conservatives rather than implicitly read them out of the GOP coalition.
Giuliani's best selling point in the primaries is that -- whatever his media coverage says -- he's not something new under the sun. He's an archetype that Republican voters know and love -- the gun-slinging sheriff, just with a different ZIP code.
© 2007 by King Features Syndicate
Page Printed from: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/11/new_york_cowboy.html at November 09, 2007 - 10:19:34 AM CST