Five Months Out: GOP Nomination

[banyon]

I'm starting to wonder who will really be the Republican candidate. I'm in the camp that thinks it will be Romney now. Giuliani has the lead in national polls and in some states where Republicans never win (CA, NY, CT), but I think after he loses the first three primaries (IA, NH, and SC and maybe NV) to Romney, the luster on his star is going to wear off. His national poll numbers will start to dip, and Romney will become the frontrunner.

Do I have it all wrong or what?

[recxjake]

Rudy can't go 0-6 before Florida. He has to sneak out a win in NH and/or SC.

Iowa is about expectation, Romney will win, but by 10+ or by just a few? He has spent 7-8 million... has 70 paid staffers in Iowa.

Huck/Giuliani/Fred/John... have all spent around 1 million and have no more than 12 paid staffers....

If Romney does't win by 10+% he truly loses.

[recxjake]

Brand New Florida numbers:

For the Republicans, it's more bad news for Fred Thompson who is running a distant 5th in the SPT poll. Giuliani leads Romney by 17 points.

Republicans
Giuliani 36
Romney 19
McCain 12
Huckabee 9
Thompson 8

Overall, Giuliani leads by 17.4% in the RCP Average for Florida.

[recxjake]

Brand new New Hampshire Numbers:

On the Republican side, Marist shows Romney extending his lead, Paul moving up and Thompson falling back into sixth place:

Republicans (w/leaners)
Romney 34 (+7 vs. last poll in Oct)
Giuliani 23 (+2)
McCain 13 (-4)
Paul 7 (+5)
Huckabee 7 (-1)
Thompson 5 (-5)
Undecided 12 (-3)

And Another

Republicans
Romney 32 (no trend)
Giuliani 20
McCain 17
Paul 7
Huckabee 5
Thompson 3
Undecided 16

[banyon]

Rudy can't go 0-6 before Florida. He has to sneak out a win in NH and/or SC.

Iowa is about expectation, Romney will win, but by 10+ or by just a few? He has spent 7-8 million... has 70 paid staffers in Iowa.

Huck/Giuliani/Fred/John... have all spent around 1 million and have no more than 12 paid staffers....

If Romney does't win by 10+% he truly loses.

Why do primary voters in other states care if Romney wins by 8% or 12%? The story will still be that he won.

And as for NH, your guy is down 12%. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/charts/2008_election_primaries/republican_primaries_chart.html .

I think it's time to pin your hopes on SC.

[banyon]

Brand New Florida numbers:

For the Republicans, it's more bad news for Fred Thompson who is running a distant 5th in the SPT poll. Giuliani leads Romney by 17 points.

Republicans
Giuliani 36
Romney 19
McCain 12
Huckabee 9
Thompson 8

Overall, Giuliani leads by 17.4% in the RCP Average for Florida.

Thompson is dead in the water IMO. That's why i didn't even bother to include him as an option.

[recxjake]

Why do primary voters in other states care if Romney wins by 8% or 12%? The story will still be that he won.

And as for NH, your guy is down 12%. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/charts/2008_election_primaries/republican_primaries_chart.html .

I think it's time to pin your hopes on SC.

Rudy will be launching a massive TV ad blitz in Iowa, NH, and S. Carolina starting very soon.

He is the only candidate NOT running TV ads... Romney has been running them for months.

Rudy has the best staff in the country that specialize in GOTV.

Rudy has Jan 29th and beyond locked up. He just has to get there.

There are going to be hundreds of variables between now and then.... we still have several debates, endorsements, gaffes, more dropouts etc....

[Hoover]

National Polls don't mean anything.

When you look at Polls in Iowa and New Hampshire Mitt Romney has huge leads. Now he has to hold on to them but if he wins both he will be the Republican nominee.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

I said Romney the day after the '04 election. I'll stick by that prediction until his candidacy goes down in flames.

[recxjake]

Poll Watch: UConn/Hartford Courant Connecticut Presidential Election
UConn/Hartford Courant Connecticut Presidential Election

Hillary Clinton 45%
Rudy Giulani 43%

Rudy Giuliani 45%
Barack Obama 43%

Rudy Giuliani 46%
John Edwards 41%

Rudy Giuliani 50%
Chris Dodd 37%

Survey of 501 Connecticut residents, including 420 registered voters was conducted November 1-6. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.

[Hoover]

Poll Watch: UConn/Hartford Courant Connecticut Presidential Election
UConn/Hartford Courant Connecticut Presidential Election

Hillary Clinton 45%
Rudy Giulani 43%

Rudy Giuliani 45%
Barack Obama 43%

Rudy Giuliani 46%
John Edwards 41%

Rudy Giuliani 50%
Chris Dodd 37%

Survey of 501 Connecticut residents, including 420 registered voters was conducted November 1-6. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.
PRINT EM

[Adam]

Unfortunately I think Giuliani has the best chance at this point.

It really doesn't matter, though. Unless Ron Paul catches lightning in a bottle we'll just be playing "name the 2008 loser" for the next 6 months.

[patteeu]

Someone call FEMA, we're up to our necks in Ron Paul flavored kool-aid and we've already had several members go under.

P.S. I picked Romney for many of the same reasons already mentioned.

[Calcountry]

Brand New Florida numbers:

For the Republicans, it's more bad news for Fred Thompson who is running a distant 5th in the SPT poll. Giuliani leads Romney by 17 points.

Republicans
Giuliani 36
Romney 19
McCain 12
Huckabee 9
Thompson 8

Overall, Giuliani leads by 17.4% in the RCP Average for Florida.Those won't be the numbers 2 days before the Florida primary.

[BucEyedPea]

Can't you be more original? And use the "Kool-Aid" metaphor accurately.
Ron Paul does not put out propaganda and false reports to dupe people in to following him. He says exactly what he means and you get exactly what he claims.

[Calcountry]

National Polls don't mean anything.

When you look at Polls in Iowa and New Hampshire Mitt Romney has huge leads. Now he has to hold on to them but if he wins both he will be the Republican nominee.Remind me again, what wisdom to NH and Iowa possess that the rest of the country doesn't. Explain it to me why these two puny states get to decide for the rest of us who we must choose from?

[banyon]

Note: The poll question wasn't "Who do you want to be the GOP nominee?", it was "Who will be the GOP nominee?"

For the 10 Ron Paul voters, I agree with patteeu, that it has the tangy taste of flavored sugar pouch mix.

[noa]

Can't you be more original? And use the "Kool-Aid" metaphor accurately.
Ron Paul does not put out propaganda and false reports to dupe people in to following him. He says exactly what he means and you get exactly what he claims.

I think he's using accurately for the reason Banyon said.

[BucEyedPea]

Mitt Romney has paid a lot of money for his lead. I wonder if it'll hold.

[BucEyedPea]

I think he's using accurately for the reason Banyon said.
I didn't see that. He's still not being original. He tends to copy my terms often. Copying, though, is the sincerest form of flattery. :)

[Taco John]

I think Ron Paul's stragegy is a sound one... New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada, Michigan... These are all States that Ron Paul can have a strong showing in and boost his nationwide support levels enough to run towards St. Paul and force the issue with the Delgates on the floor.

Paul doesn't need to dominate. He just needs to register enough of a plurality to fight all the way to St. Paul. He's already demonstrated that he can raise the money to compete that far.

[BucEyedPea]

Taco, I read an article that Paul doesn't do as well in the Great Lake states and may not do well in the South.

I think I saw this on Lew's site in a map. It was more like Alabama, Lousiana, Miss, Ark and Kentucky for the south though. The analysis was that they have more military bases and get a lot of federal subsidies such as in agriculture. So they benefit from the teat of big govt and are a big pro-military area as they benefit from it.

Not tryin' to rain on the parade...but I was curious about that. They had a map. I would think Paul would keep US bases open, instead of closing them like others have and close more of the foreign ones.

Was wondering what you take was on that?
I do agree Paul only needs a plurality though....unless the GOP cuts deals that could be prevented.
BTW, the same map showed him doing well in NE overall though.

[Taco John]

Taco, I read an article that Paul doesn't do as well in the Great Lake states and may not do well in the South.

I think I saw this on Lew's site in a map. It was more like Alabama, Lousiana, Miss, Ark and Kentucky for the south though. The analysis was that they have more military bases and get a lot of federal subsidies such as in agriculture. So they benefit from the teat of big govt and are a big pro-military area as they benefit from it.

Not tryin' to rain on the parade...but I was curious about that. They had a map. I would think Paul would keep US bases open, instead of closing them like others have and close more of the foreign ones.

Was wondering what you take was on that?
I do agree Paul only needs a plurality though....unless the GOP cuts deals that could be prevented.
BTW, the same map showed him doing well in NE overall though.


Not so fast... He's raising a lot of money per capita in the red states... (http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=51313) There are a lot of folks there who believe in getting the government out of their pockets and lives.

[BucEyedPea]

Those I named per the color key do show low on the financial support. OTHH, the southern ones, (MI and KY are rock bottom) are poorer states too.

[patteeu]

I didn't see that. He's still not being original. He tends to copy my terms often. Copying, though, is the sincerest form of flattery. :)

Romney is a Neocon! You know, they believe in perpetual war, lying and socialism. And they're just like Nazis!

[BucEyedPea]

Actually, I think Romney is the least hawkish of the leads in the GOP because of an interview I saw on Fox and they way he looked when he spoke. I think he may be posturing to win the GOP primary. So tell me pat, do you really think Mitt's being honest about his other conservative stands? Afterall, he's a tax and spend liberal. This is fact.

[patteeu]

Actually, I think Romney is the least hawkish of the leads in the GOP because of an interview I saw on Fox and they way he looked when he spoke. I think he may be posturing to win the GOP primary. So tell me pat, do you really think Mitt's being honest about his other conservative stands? Afterall, he's a tax and spend liberal. This is fact.

I don't think any of them, including Saint Paul, are completely honest. I lean toward Guiliani at the moment because I don't have complete faith that Romney would remain firm in the face of negative opinion polls when it comes to the GWoT. On judges, I trust Romney a little more but I'm fairly comfortable with either of them. On domestic spending issues, I'll keep my fingers crossed. Neither of them are as attractive as Ron Paul to me on judges or spending issues, but Ron Paul has political leprosy to me as a result of his neo-isolationism.

[a1na2]

I used the Gaz option.

Popular rumor is that Gaz is dead. Play this whole thread backwards and it tells you that.

[Cochise]

Mike Huckabee, (CBS News extraneous comma) is making a big move on Mitt Romney's long-held position as the front-runner among Iowa Republicans, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll.

While Romney still holds the lead at 27 percent in the poll, Huckabee comes in a strong second at 21 percent, with a 5 percent margin of error.

I'm not big on Huckabee from what I know right now, but this is interesting.

[StcChief]

Romney/Guilani Team

[BucEyedPea]

That CBS poll has a .pdf that can be downloaded with more breakdown on what the Iowan's think. Most are playing the "electibility" game, want someone who shares their values, want someone more conservative than Bush, and illegal immigration more than the war IS their TOP issue.

WTF?

Yet, Romney leads? There's some serious disconnect or lack of research by these voters. Romney in the lead shows they aren't well informed at all and must believe Romney's claims as to being a conservative when his Mass record is that of a BIG tax & spender, as well as not socially conservative (gay issues in particular but also abortion).

If those are their issues per that CBS .pdf I read, they WILL NOT get what they want in Romney—AT ALL! Their man IS Ron Paul. Really if one looks at his issue stands. So long as these voters play the electibility game they will NEVER get what they want. It's a shame really.

If Paul gets more traction, say if the polls are a lagging indicator (some think so) ...and more come out for him as his message is made known it, perhaps these folks will see the light and like the conformists, that they are, jump on the bandwagon.

This, imo, is the last chance for America to get back on track. If not the next ten years are going to SUKK! All because electibility trumped boldness. Boldness is needed right now.

[BucEyedPea]

BTW, conservative Iowans, Romney presided over a notorious gay-sex being taught in the public schools scandal in Massachusetts. Ya' know where things like "fisting" was taught to kids. He also gave the state RomneyCare...state mandated health-care.

[Cochise]

BTW, conservative Iowans, Romney presided over a notorious gay-sex being taught in the public schools scandal in Massachusetts. Ya' know where things like "fisting" was taught to kids. He also gave the state RomneyCare...state mandated health-care.

It's killing you that Huckabee has gone from not even registering in May to 18-20%, while Paul keeps spinning his tires... isn't it?

[BucEyedPea]

Not at all, I expected Paul wouldn't even be doing what he's done to date so you might as well stop jumping to conclusions.

What kills me, is that so many people fall for Mitt's ads and sound bites and don't really know much about him. Maybe, it's cause I have friends and immediate family from Mass. Everyone knows about that scandal up there.

As far, as Huckabee goes, I said before, if ya' paid attention, that I thought he could be the dark-horse. But at least he comes closer to what Iowan's seem to be looking for (at least on values) per that poll, than Romney does. Yet Romney leads?

It just makes NO sense is all.