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View Full Version : Big 12 will determine who gets title shot


Lzen
11-15-2007, 10:30 AM
http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/story/7435488
Pete Fiutak
CollegeFootballNews.com, Updated 2 days ago

One falls, and everyone takes a step up.

From LSU down to West Virginia, the teams ranked second through sixth last week all moved up one spot with Ohio State freefalling from the unquestioned number one to an also-ran seventh. Not only did the Buckeyes topple, but they fell so far that any dream of being in the discussion along with the other one-loss teams for a spot in the BCS championship game is now gone.

Things will get more and more interesting over the next few weeks, with the Big 12 playing a bigger role in the debate. LSU isn't just number one, it's number one with a 25-mile wide gap before getting to Oregon. The Ducks are on a relative island, a solid 0.0289 ahead of Kansas, but if the Jayhawks win out that'll mean they'll have beaten No. 5 Missouri to get to No. 4 Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship to go 13-0. As the lone unbeaten among the BCS conferences, the pollsters would all but assure Mark Mangino's club of a spot in the title game, meaning Oregon will be out in the cold.

What happens if Oklahoma wins out? That'll mean it'll have beaten either No. 3 Kansas, or what will be No. 3 or 4 Missouri if the Tigers beat the Jayhawks. Will that be enough to leapfrog the Sooners over the Ducks? The same question applies to Missouri, who will have beaten No. 3 Kansas and No. 4 Oklahoma if it wins the Big 12 championship. Assuming Chase Daniel and the boys get by Kansas State this week, will that be enough to get by Oregon?

For the Ducks, it's all about style points now. Playing at Arizona, at UCLA and then getting Oregon State at home in the Civil War, there aren't any chances left to make an impact on a national scale. That's why it'll be vital to be razor sharp. Even a close win might mean the national championship dream is gone.

Of course, things quickly change again if LSU gets upset by Arkansas in the regular season finale or in the SEC championship game. In other words, there's plenty of football yet to be played, and plenty of arguments and debates out there to keep the message boards and talk shows buzzing.

Also remember how the WAC fits into the mix. If a non-BCS team finishes in the top 12 it's automatically in, or if it finishes in the top 16, and ahead of a champion of BCS conference, it's in. Hawaii stayed at 16 this week, but Boise State moved up from 20 to 18 and within range to potentially move up much higher as other teams start to lose. If the Broncos and Warriors don't lose again until they play each other on November 23rd, the winner will almost be assured of an at-large spot.

Don't forget that the BCS takes the entire season into account, so there will be wild changes from the computers as the year goes on, but the two human polls will be the biggest factors.

The Big Winners: The three top Big 12 teams (Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri), USC (17th to 11th), Clemson (21st to 15th) The Big Losers: Ohio State (1st to 7th), Boston College (8th to 17th), Michigan (12th to 21st)

1. LSU, Score: 0.9802

Last Week: 2

The Tigers have moved up to the number one spot with enough of a cushion over everyone else to be assured of a spot in the national championship if they win out. With Arkansas and the SEC Championship still to play, getting respect from the rest of the schedule isn't an issue. The computers certainly think this is the most deserving team with four of the six putting it in the top spot. It's not just about maintaining focus and winning out. Style points probably don't matter at this point.
Predicted wins: at Ole Miss, Arkansas, SEC Championship
Predicted losses: None
Predicted record: 12-1
Predicted bowl: BCS Championship
Toughest test: Arkansas (if not the SEC Championship)

2. Oregon, Score: 0.9383

Last Week: 3

If the computers don't buy into Oregon now, which they don't when it comes to a spot in the top two, they never will. Of course it all comes down to the human polls, and they'll be debating the idea of the Ducks vs. the Big 12 champion for the next few weeks. It won't just be enough to win right now, the wins have to be dominating. As crazy as this might sound, the play of QB Dennis Dixon in his Heisman hunt will play a big role. If he rolls over the final three weeks and wins the big prize, the pollsters might like the idea of seeing what he can do against LSU, assuming the Tigers make it in.
Predicted wins: at UCLA, Oregon State
Predicted losses: at Arizona
Predicted record: 10-2
Predicted bowl: Fiesta
Toughest test: at Arizona

3. Kansas, Score: 0.9094

Last Week: 4

The general sense is that if Kansas wins out, it's in the national title game. It'll be the only unbeaten team from a BCS conference, and it'll have beaten Oklahoma and Missouri to get to 13-0. Two of the six computers already have the Jayhawks number one, and more will follow suit over the coming weeks if the wins keep on coming. However, things could quickly change with a loss to Missouri ... namely going from the brink of the Big 12 title, and within range of the national championship, to out of the BCS entirely with the Big 12 title combatants likely to get the two spots. Remember, no conference can get more than two teams in.
Predicted wins: Iowa State
Predicted losses: Missouri
Predicted record: 11-1
Predicted bowl: Cotton Bowl
Toughest test: Missouri

4. Oklahoma, Score: 0.8540
Last Week: 5

Still well out of range of a top two spot, OU needs to make a big splash over the final few weeks, and that includes a dominant performance in the Big 12 title game. At worst, if the Sooners win out they'll go to their second straight Fiesta Bowl, and even if they lose the Big 12 title game, if they win their final two regular season games they'll likely do no worse than get an at-large BCS bid.
Predicted wins: Oklahoma State, at Texas Tech, Big 12 Championship
Predicted losses: None
Predicted record: 12-1
Predicted bowl: BCS Championship
Toughest test: Big 12 Championship

5. Missouri, Score: 0.8096
Last Week: 6

There's still a wait-and-see attitude with the Tigers. Likely too far out of range to be in the national title discussion, even if they beat Kansas and Oklahoma, they'll need to be impressive down the stretch. However, there will be a groundswell of support for them if they avenge the loss to the Sooners, which came at OU, and if they beat Kansas with ease. The computers aren't impressed yet, even with a win over Illinois being taken into account. That'll all change with a Big 12 title. Predicted wins: at Kansas State, Kansas
Predicted losses: Big 12 Championship
Predicted record: 11-2
Predicted bowl: Fiesta Bowl
Toughest test: Kansas (if not Big 12 Championship)

Reerun_KC
11-15-2007, 10:32 AM
Now that K-sucks is a basketball school, have they cancelled the BIG 12 Tourney and NCAA's yet?

DaKCMan AP
11-15-2007, 10:36 AM
If LSU and Oregon win out, the only Big XII team with a shot at the NCG is Kansas if they win out. A 1-loss OU or MU wont jump Oregon.

Reaper16
11-15-2007, 10:45 AM
If LSU and Oregon win out, the only Big XII team with a shot at the NCG is Kansas if they win out. A 1-loss OU or MU wont jump Oregon.
Which is bullshit. One of the Big 12 teams will have beaten two top 5 teams down the stretch, while Oregon will be playing the likes of St. Mary's School for the Deaf and Podunk County Community College.

kcfanXIII
11-15-2007, 10:47 AM
If LSU and Oregon win out, the only Big XII team with a shot at the NCG is Kansas if they win out. A 1-loss OU or MU wont jump Oregon.


and that sir is why the BCS is total crap. whoever wins the BIG XII should be invited to the national title game. KU, OU, and MU all have an argument that, should one of them win out, they should be playing in the 'ship. it would mean that MU had beaten the 3, and 4 team; KU would have beaten the 4 and 5 teams; and OU would have beaten 3, and they already beat 5 earlier int he season. any way you slice it, that's impressive. if the BIG XII champ isn't in the title game, i will not watch and nor will i recognize the winner as the true national champion. i know it doesn't matter if I recognize them as champ, but its the only thing i can do, or not do depending on how you look at it. good luck to all 3 schools, but more luck going towards MIZZOU.

ChiefsCountry
11-15-2007, 10:49 AM
Here is to Arizona winning tonight and help settle some of this mess.

Reerun_KC
11-15-2007, 10:51 AM
If LSU and Oregon win out, the only Big XII team with a shot at the NCG is Kansas if they win out. A 1-loss OU or MU wont jump Oregon.


QFT

Reaper16
11-15-2007, 12:17 PM
Here is to Arizona winning tonight and help settle some of this mess.
Word up.

DMAC
11-15-2007, 12:28 PM
Here is to Arizona winning tonight and help settle some of this mess.Hopefully Mike will give his big brother Bob a present. ........ Until San Antonio, when Gary steals the present.

DaKCMan AP
11-15-2007, 01:25 PM
Which is bullshit. One of the Big 12 teams will have beaten two top 5 teams down the stretch, while Oregon will be playing the likes of St. Mary's School for the Deaf and Podunk County Community College.

Oregon has already defeated Michigan, then #12 USC and then #4 ASU. Their only loss was to then #6 Cal.

OU has a much weaker loss to Colorado. MU hasn't beaten anyone ranked higher than #24 and if KU loses, what quality victories have they had all year to warrant a top-10 rank? KU's only shot at legitimacy is to beat MU which is why they're really the only Big XII team that can make the title game unless LSU/Oregon lose. A MU win over KU wont look that impressive since all of KU's 10 wins have come against unranked opposition and then #24 K-State.

Reaper16
11-15-2007, 04:23 PM
Oregon has already defeated Michigan, then #12 USC and then #4 ASU. Their only loss was to then #6 Cal.

OU has a much weaker loss to Colorado. MU hasn't beaten anyone ranked higher than #24 and if KU loses, what quality victories have they had all year to warrant a top-10 rank? KU's only shot at legitimacy is to beat MU which is why they're really the only Big XII team that can make the title game unless LSU/Oregon lose. A MU win over KU wont look that impressive since all of KU's 10 wins have come against unranked opposition and then #24 K-State.
Yeah, computer SoS stuff.

Which means its bullshit.

God, D-1 needs a playoff.

Spott
11-15-2007, 04:37 PM
OU has a much weaker loss to Colorado. MU hasn't beaten anyone ranked higher than #24 and if KU loses, what quality victories have they had all year to warrant a top-10 rank?


Illinois is rated #20.

sd4chiefs
11-15-2007, 04:59 PM
What time does the MU vs KU game start next week?

Mosbonian
11-15-2007, 06:09 PM
Oregon has already defeated Michigan, then #12 USC and then #4 ASU. Their only loss was to then #6 Cal.

OU has a much weaker loss to Colorado. MU hasn't beaten anyone ranked higher than #24 and if KU loses, what quality victories have they had all year to warrant a top-10 rank? KU's only shot at legitimacy is to beat MU which is why they're really the only Big XII team that can make the title game unless LSU/Oregon lose. A MU win over KU wont look that impressive since all of KU's 10 wins have come against unranked opposition and then #24 K-State.

Horse hockey.....let's play the "then-rated" game for Mizzou. They have beaten, then rated #25 Nebraska, then rated #22 Texas Tech, lost to then #6 Oklahoma (now #4), and will play Kansas#3 and Oklahoma #4.

Mizzou deserves just as much a shot as Oregon at the title if they run the table.

mmaddog
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Mosbonian
11-15-2007, 06:14 PM
All....let's try this scenario:

MU runs the table and finishes 12-1...KU's lone loss is to MU.

LSU, Oregon, West Virginia and Ohio State all suffer another loss....

We know that USC and Arizona State have to play each other, so someone is either going to have 3 losses (USC) or both teams will have 2 losses?

Why does KU suddenly leave the BCS bowl picture?

mmaddog
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DaKCMan AP
11-15-2007, 06:15 PM
Horse hockey.....let's play the "then-rated" game for Mizzou. They have beaten, then rated #25 Nebraska, then rated #22 Texas Tech, lost to then #6 Oklahoma (now #4), and will play Kansas#3 and Oklahoma #4.

Mizzou deserves just as much a shot as Oregon at the title if they run the table.

mmaddog
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Disagree. Currently Oregon has already beaten a current top-10 team and the current #11 ranked team. Their current SOS ranking is #3 whereas Missouri is #35, Oklahoma is #68 and Kansas is #73. We'll see how it changes the next 2-3 weeks.

http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/polls/119

DaKCMan AP
11-15-2007, 06:16 PM
All....let's try this scenario:

MU runs the table and finishes 12-1...KU's lone loss is to MU.

LSU, Oregon, West Virginia and Ohio State all suffer another loss....

We know that USC and Arizona State have to play each other, so someone is either going to have 3 losses (USC) or both teams will have 2 losses?

Why does KU suddenly leave the BCS bowl picture?

mmaddog
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Because they haven't beaten anybody worth anything?

Mosbonian
11-15-2007, 06:18 PM
Disagree. Currently Oregon has already beaten a current top-10 team and the current #11 ranked team. Their current SOS ranking is #3 whereas Missouri is #35, Oklahoma is #68 and Kansas is #73. We'll see how it changes the next 2-3 weeks.

http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/polls/119

My point exactly......the SOS rankings could change drastically by the end of the season. Oregon plays no one who can strengthen their standing while MU and KU stand to play at minimum 2 gams that can strengthen their position.

mmaddog
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Spott
11-15-2007, 06:21 PM
I think LSU has more of a chance of losing a game this year than Oregon. I could definitely see Georgia beating LSU in the SEC championship game, assuming that Tennessee doesn't make it.

DaKCMan AP
11-15-2007, 06:21 PM
My point exactly......the SOS rankings could change drastically by the end of the season. Oregon plays no one who can strengthen their standing while MU and KU stand to play at minimum 2 gams that can strengthen their position.

mmaddog
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Yes, and they have to win both. Still, I don't see a 1-loss Mizzou or Oklahoma overtaking 1-loss LSU or Oregon. Sucks, yeah, but it also sucked when undefeated Auburn didn't get to play USC in 2004.

Mosbonian
11-15-2007, 06:22 PM
Because they haven't beaten anybody worth anything?

I could agree....except that everyone else has more losses and that balances out that argument. OSU has a schedule just as weak, if not weaker than KU.....LSU, with another loss would have 2, and they have been darn lucky in 2 very close wins......West Virginia's schedule is only slightly stronger than KU's I believe....Oregon would come the closest to unseating KU's position due to SOS.

mmaddog
*******

DaKCMan AP
11-15-2007, 06:22 PM
I think LSU has more of a chance of losing a game this year than Oregon. I could definitely see Georgia beating LSU in the SEC championship game, assuming that Tennessee doesn't make it.

Yep, LSU will have a tough matchup against Florida or Georgia in the SEC Champ game. If Tennessee makes it I think they'll roll.

DaKCMan AP
11-15-2007, 06:25 PM
I could agree....except that everyone else has more losses and that balances out that argument. OSU has a schedule just as weak, if not weaker than KU.....LSU, with another loss would have 3, and they have been darn lucky in 2 very close wins......West Virginia's schedule is only slightly stronger than KU's I believe....Oregon would come the closest to unseating KU's position due to SOS.

mmaddog
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LSU would have 2 losses, not 3. In this scenario, KU's 1 loss does not balance out the 1-game difference between them and LSU. KU would not have any true quality victories, while LSU has defeated Florida, Va Tech, Auburn and Alabama.

While the Big 10 is weak, a schedule of Penn St, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin is still tougher than KU's.

Spott
11-15-2007, 06:25 PM
Yep, LSU will have a tough matchup against Florida or Georgia in the SEC Champ game. If Tennessee makes it I think they'll roll.


I think UF would beat them a second time around, too. Tennessee is about the 3rd best team in the SEC East, IMO.

DaKCMan AP
11-15-2007, 06:27 PM
I think UF would beat them a second time around, too. Tennessee is about the 3rd best team in the SEC East, IMO.

Yep, I don't know how they destroyed Georgia, who has looked VERY strong the last few weeks.

Florida owns Tennessee and I think Georgia would beat UT in a rematch. Unfortunately, Tennessee is the only one of the three which controls its own destiny.

Spott
11-15-2007, 06:35 PM
Yep, I don't know how they destroyed Georgia, who has looked VERY strong the last few weeks.

Florida owns Tennessee and I think Georgia would beat UT in a rematch. Unfortunately, Tennessee is the only one of the three which controls its own destiny.


I think/hope UT will show their bad side and lose at Kentucky in 2 weeks. Unfortunately for UF, I think Georgia will beat UK this week.

Mosbonian
11-15-2007, 07:54 PM
LSU would have 2 losses, not 3. In this scenario, KU's 1 loss does not balance out the 1-game difference between them and LSU. KU would not have any true quality victories, while LSU has defeated Florida, Va Tech, Auburn and Alabama.

While the Big 10 is weak, a schedule of Penn St, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin is still tougher than KU's.

You'll notice that I corrected my typo.....I hit enter before fixing the losses to 2 for LSU. I went back and corrected that. But I will say that I could actually see LSU losing 2 games....and if that happens it negates any thought of them playing for the Nat'l Championship.

It's all conjecture, but I still say that KU deserves better than a 2nd tier bowl if their only loss would be to the Mizzou Tigers and MU were to beat both KU and OU. (Remember I hate KU with the passion that a true Tiger fan should...so this isn't loyalty speaking)

As for OSU...if they lose to Michigan, then how can you say their overall schedule is better? Penn State is not all that strong, more comparable to Colorado in my book.....Wisconsin is so up/down that you can't place them as a strong plus for OSU.....and last I checked Michigan had lost to Appalachian State AT HOME, so any inference that they strengthen OSU's schedule is phantom.

All this is moot....unless all my scenario happens.

mmaddog
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DaKCMan AP
11-15-2007, 08:04 PM
But I will say that I could actually see LSU losing 2 games....and if that happens it negates any thought of them playing for the Nat'l Championship.

To who? Ole Miss (the worst team in the SEC)? At home against Arkansas?

Mosbonian
11-15-2007, 08:10 PM
To who? Ole Miss (the worst team in the SEC)? At home against Arkansas?

Either team....plus the SEC Championship.

mmaddog
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DaKCMan AP
11-15-2007, 08:14 PM
Either team....plus the SEC Championship.

mmaddog
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LMAO

The SEC Champ? Ok. To Ole Miss or Arky? You must be joking.