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View Full Version : Why I believe Ron Paul can win the Republican nomination...


Taco John
12-10-2007, 01:26 AM
This deserves it's own thread...

Let me ask you this...

What % of the vote does Paul have to win in order to win the nomination?

Ie, "the winner of the GOP nomination will (on average) get XX% of the vote in the primary".

40%?
30%?
20%?
10%?


That's a great question. If you look at the polling numbers right now, they're incredibly low across the board comparatively. Clinton is sitting in the 40% range in just about every poll, except for Iowa, where she's down in the mid-20's in some (not all). The Republicans, on the other hand, are swamped in the mid-low 20's for the front runners, and the teens for the field. Giuliani is leading the field with an average of 24%, with the next challenger, Huckabee at 16%.

Here's an analysis that someone put together at the Ron Paul forum...

Assume from the current polls per 100,000... And estimate a slightly higher than normal--but uniform--turnout. Turnout in 2000 was something like 8.1%, and in 2004 only 6.6%. I'm being generous with the 15%.

Candidate - percent likely voters * percent turnout * 100,000 = votes

Mitt Romney 33% * 15% * 100,000 = 4950
John McCain 18% * 15% * 100,000 = 2700
Rudy Giuliani 16% * 15% * 100,000 = 2400
Ron Paul 8% * 70% * 100,000 = 5600
Mike Huckabee 5% * 15% * 100,000 = 750
Fred Thompson 4% * 15% * 100,000 = 600
Tom Tancredo 1% * 15% * 100,000 = 150
Unsure 14% * 15% * 100,000 = 2100
Other 1% * 15% * 100,000 = 150


The end values are per 100,000 people, so remember to take those values and multiply by how ever many 100,000 people there are.

I have Ron Paul at 70% turnout. Maybe that's a little high... But if you make it 40%, he's still registering a strong second place finish... which is the point here. In this weak field, all Ron Paul has to do is CONTEND to justify fighting this thing out to the National Convention. (I would add that I believe RP's polling numbers to be soft numbers, particularly in caucus states. Polling in caucus states has been notoriously dubious over the years because there's no way to account for all of the field variables (http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=940DE5DA133DF93AA15750C0A96E948260)).

I'll be suprised if any Republican garners more than 33% of the vote, leaving the door wide open for Paul to make the case to keep his campaign open.

Also, it's worth noting that Ron Paul turned down the Libertarian party's plea, saying that he has no intention of running as a third party candidate (http://www.statesman.com/news/content/news/stories/nation/12/10/1210paul.html).

Taco John
12-10-2007, 01:36 AM
Here's a video from RP's MySpace page which makes a compelling case in itself...

<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/OFAJby9BYu0&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed>

Cochise
12-10-2007, 10:49 AM
With Huckabee consolidating support among social conservatives, the bar is going up. Previously I thought that 25-30% nationally might be enough to win, but if he wins early and effectively sinks some other candidates, it might take 35-40%

recxjake
12-10-2007, 10:54 AM
Rudy takes the lead back from Hucks 2 day surge on top on Rass...

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Rudy Giuliani 24%
Mike Huckabee 19%
Mitt Romney 13%
Fred Thompson 13%
John McCain 11%
Ron Paul 4%

Taco John
12-10-2007, 01:14 PM
With Huckabee consolidating support among social conservatives, the bar is going up. Previously I thought that 25-30% nationally might be enough to win, but if he wins early and effectively sinks some other candidates, it might take 35-40%



The Huckabee Honeymoon is going to be over soon. Romney is going to be slaughtering the guy in the next three weeks, and there's more than enough material to grab onto... His soft on crime record combined with his propensity to raise taxes is going to raise plenty of hackles. I'm not worried about Huckabee running away with this thing.

Ron Paul is feilding a lot of "I give up already on these guys" type of support right now... They're not going to be primary voters for us, for the most part, but they won't be for the other guys either.