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dirk digler
12-19-2007, 08:11 AM
Poor Jake

Someone needs to find him before he offs himself.

I am sure he will come on and post 500 different polls showing Rudy winning though.


http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1952159120071219

Huckabee, Giuliani tied in 2008 Republican race
Wed Dec 19, 2007 7:12am EST

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) - Mike Huckabee has surged into a virtual tie with front-runner Rudy Giuliani in the national 2008 Republican presidential race two weeks before the first contest, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas whose campaign has caught fire in recent weeks, wiped out an 18-point deficit in one month to pull within one point of Giuliani, 23 percent to 22 percent.

Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton's national advantage over second-place rival Barack Obama shrunk slightly to eight percentage points as the races for the White House tightened in both parties. Clinton had an 11-point edge last month.

The shifting numbers have changed the shape of a dynamic presidential race two weeks before Iowa on January 3 kicks off the state-by-state process of choosing candidates in each party for the November 2008 election.

"Huckabee is on a roll, he has gotten an enormous amount of publicity and he is doing very well with conservatives, who at least for now appear to have found a candidate," pollster John Zogby said.

Giuliani, the former New York mayor who has led most national polls since early in the year, saw his support drop from 29 percent to 23 percent in the survey. His one-point lead over Huckabee was well within the poll's 4.8 percentage point margin of error.

Huckabee moved ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who was in third place at 16 percent, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson at 13 percent, Arizona Sen. John McCain at 12 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 4 percent.

wazu
12-19-2007, 08:15 AM
And here I thought the Republican "base" couldn't come up with a candidate I liked less than Rudy...

jAZ
12-19-2007, 08:27 AM
Some good analysis from TPM.

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/12/state_by_state_huck_rises_and_rudy_falls.php

State By State, Huck Rises And Rudy Falls
By Eric Kleefeld - December 18, 2007, 4:28PM
Just how drastic has Mike Huckabee's rise been? We've put together a sampling of polls from various primary states, and the effect is quite startling, not only in Iowa but across the country. Furthermore, the last two months have turned to be pretty rough for Rudy Giuliani, who was relying on his national popularity to see him through.

The trends, as can be seen in this graph, are very striking:

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/images/2007-12-18_huck_rise_rudy_fall.jpg

More analysis after the jump.

In Iowa, Huckabee has risen up an amazing 21 points, while both Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani have declined. Rudy's campaign has all but given up on a win in Iowa, running their TV ads elsewhere, and he now struggles to get into the double digits.

New Hampshire has been the exception, with Huckabee rising only four points, and so far being unable to catch on here.

In Nevada, Huckabee has surged by 15 points, while Rudy has stayed about constant.

In South Carolina, Huckabee has shot up 20 points, while Rudy has fallen nine. As voters in this Bible Belt state got a closer look at "America's Mayor," a lot of them just fell away to the undecided column and to other candidates and Huckabee probably got his piece somewhere along the line, along with Mitt Romney.

Florida seems to be in the same boat as South Carolina. Huckabee has gained an amazing 24 points since late September, while Rudy has plummeted by ten.

In Michigan, Huckabee has gained 15 points, while Rudy has stayed about constant.

In California one of the big February 5 states that Rudy was banking on Huckabee has 20 points after not even being listed in earlier polls, and Rudy has dropped by 11.

Rudy's problem seems to be that he started off in this race as "America's Mayor," commanding respect even as many voters knew nothing about his positions on the issues or his storied personal life. As such, he had nowhere to go but down. Mike Huckabee, on the other hand, started out as an unknown who had a lot to offer the Republican base voter so he had nowhere to go but up.

Here are the full numbers:

Iowa Huckabee Giuliani Romney
10/10-14/2007 Rasmussen 18 13 25
11/12/2007 Rasmussen 16 15 29
11/26-27/2007 Rasmussen 28 12 25
12/10/2007 Rasmussen 39 8 23


New Hampshire
10/23/2007 Rasmussen 10 19 28
11/5/2007 Rasmussen 10 17 32
11/29/2007 Rasmussen 14 15 34
12/11/2007 Rasmussen 14 15 33


Nevada
10/9-11/2007 Mason-Dixon 2 28 17
11/9-13/2007 CNN 4 29 21
12/3-5/2007 McClatchy-MSNBC 17 25 20


South Carolina
9/26-27/2007 Rasmussen 3 20 15
11/20/2007 Rasmussen 12 13 21
12/3-4/2007 Rasmussen 25 12 18
12/16/2007 Rasmussen 23 11 23


Florida
9/19-20/2007 Rasmussen 3 29 11
11/18/2007 Rasmussen 9 27 19
12/13/2007 Rasmussen 27 19 23


Michigan
10/2-3/2007 InsiderAdvantage 6 19 16
11/7-13/2007 EPIC/MRA 9 28 25
11/30-12/3/2007 MIRS 19 11 20
12/4/2007 Rasmussen 21

California
10/12-14/2007 SurveyUSA n/a 39 14
11/2-4/2007 SurveyUSA 8 34 15
11/30-12/2/2007 SurveyUSA 14 32 14
12/14-16/2007 SurveyUSA 20 28 16

Chiefnj2
12-19-2007, 08:29 AM
If forced to choose between the two I'd go with scandalman (Rudy).

recxjake
12-19-2007, 08:51 AM
Not after this ad!
<object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/dR1fWZlE7AM&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/dR1fWZlE7AM&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>

And the Gallup poll released yesterday had Rudy up 11...

Mr. Kotter
12-19-2007, 09:03 AM
"National" polls at this point....are virtually meaningless, except as a barometer of current 'conventional wisdom' and name-recognition. Seriously.

The only polls that matter right now are the polls of the first 3-4 primary states/dates (and, currently, while Romney and Huck seem well-positioned, a brokered convention is just as likely at this point)....because the outcome in those will have a large and profound impact on subsequent primaries and, eventually, on the fluid and whimsical "national" polls.

Chiefnj2
12-19-2007, 09:05 AM
Not after this ad!
And the Gallup poll released yesterday had Rudy up 11...

A better ad idea would have been Rudy giving his wife a present and then sneaking off and giving his mistress a bigger gift.

recxjake
12-19-2007, 09:06 AM
"National" polls at this point....are virtually meaningless, except as a barometer of current 'conventional wisdom' and name-recognition. Seriously.

The only polls that matter right now are the polls of the first 3-4 primary states/dates (and, currently, while Romney and Huck seem well-positioned, a brokered convention is just as likely at this point)....because the outcome in those will have a large and profound impact on the fluid and whimsical "national" polls.

Agreed.

Huck will win Iowa (taking out Mitt)
McCain will win NH
Fred will win S. Carolina
Rudy will win Michigan
Rudy will win Nevada
Rudy will win Florida

Feb 5- ???

wazu
12-19-2007, 09:06 AM
Not after this ad!
<object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/dR1fWZlE7AM&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/dR1fWZlE7AM&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>

Yikes. I wouldn't spread this damage any further than has already been done if I were you.

Mr. Kotter
12-19-2007, 09:10 AM
Agreed.

Huck will win Iowa (taking out Mitt)
McCain will win NH
Fred will win S. Carolina
Rudy will win Michigan
Rudy will win Nevada
Rudy will win Florida

Feb 5- ???

I think your hard-on for Rudy is skewing your view....Rudy has to do SOMETHING early in the primary season (Michigan is his best shot, IMO...and I don't like his chances there.) If his "only" win going into FL is Nevada....he's toast. Romney will win NH, even if McCain will make it close. Romney gone by NH is wishful thinking, IMO.

FWIW, Fred has to exceed expectations to have a prayer. A strong finish in Iowa, a surprise win in SC (over Huck) could put it together for him....but he'd need momentum to do well on Feb 5th, and even I'm only cautiously optimistic about his chances at this point.

My point is, Rudy can't flop until Florida....without significant loss in his present standing, IMO.

patteeu
12-19-2007, 09:14 AM
Huck will win Iowa (taking out Mitt)

You're delusional. Mitt Romney is probably the least likely candidate to be taken out by anything that happens in Iowa, with the possible exception of Rudy. A 2nd place finish there is certainly not going to do it.

Cochise
12-19-2007, 09:27 AM
You're delusional. Mitt Romney is probably the least likely candidate to be taken out by anything that happens in Iowa, with the possible exception of Rudy. A 2nd place finish there is certainly not going to do it.

He's just praying Romney doesn't win NH so he doesn't lose our bet :evil:

recxjake
12-19-2007, 09:33 AM
You're delusional. Mitt Romney is probably the least likely candidate to be taken out by anything that happens in Iowa, with the possible exception of Rudy. A 2nd place finish there is certainly not going to do it.

Wrong... Romney had 3 offices now, 85 paid staffers, and is spending 1.2 million this week on ads in Iowa... if he loses to Huckabee who hasn't spent crap it will be over for Romney.

Romney's team did a terrible job with expectations... they HAVE to win Iowa.

recxjake
12-19-2007, 09:35 AM
I think your hard-on for Rudy is skewing your view....Rudy has to do SOMETHING early in the primary season (Michigan is his best shot, IMO...and I don't like his chances there.) If his "only" win going into FL is Nevada....he's toast. Romney will win NH, even if McCain will make it close. Romney gone by NH is wishful thinking, IMO.

FWIW, Fred has to exceed expectations to have a prayer. A strong finish in Iowa, a surprise win in SC (over Huck) could put it together for him....but he'd need momentum to do well on Feb 5th, and even I'm only cautiously optimistic about his chances at this point.

My point is, Rudy can't flop until Florida....without significant loss in his present standing, IMO.

Early in the Primany season in Florida... jan 29.

If Rudy can lose all the earlier states, and still win Florida, that creates a clean slate going into Feb 5... where Rudy will clean house.

oldandslow
12-19-2007, 09:35 AM
Huck will probably win Iowa
Romney will win NH
Huck will win SC...

after that - Michigan and Florida freak at the possibility of a Huckabee candidacy and vote Mitt - then Romney goes on a roll and wins the nomination.

wazu
12-19-2007, 09:42 AM
Wrong... Romney had 3 offices now, 85 paid staffers, and is spending 1.2 million this week on ads in Iowa... if he loses to Huckabee who hasn't spent crap it will be over for Romney.

Romney's team did a terrible job with expectations... they HAVE to win Iowa.

Nah, a second place finish will mean Romney is one of the candidates having his speech to supporters broadcast on primetime T.V., and if anything it will give him a boost nationally. Believe it or not, most Americans have no idea what is going on with the race for president, and January 3rd is when the candidates are really "unveiled".

Rudy may be the only Republican candidate that virtually everybody in America already knows. The good news for him is most of them don't know he is pro-choice, and pro gun control. He needs that to last as long as possible.

Mr. Kotter
12-19-2007, 09:42 AM
Early in the Primany season in Florida... jan 29.

If Rudy can lose all the earlier states, and still win Florida, that creates a clean slate going into Feb 5... where Rudy will clean house.

That's wishful thinking, IMO.

It's the political version of a 50-60 yard "Hail Mary" pass at the end of a game.

And it has the same likelihood for success.

Mr. Kotter
12-19-2007, 09:47 AM
Huck will probably win Iowa
Romney will win NH
Huck will win SC...

after that - Michigan and Florida freak at the possibility of a Huckabee candidacy and vote Mitt - then Romney goes on a roll and wins the nomination.

That scenario is much more likely than the one recxjake is counting on.

I still think that's a tough road though. To continue the football analogy, instead of a 50-60 yard Hail Mary....it's more like starting at your own 20 yard line, down by 7, with 60 seconds to play and only one time-out.

Brett Favre or Joe Montana better be your quarterback in that scenario. However, I think Romney has Damon Huard for quarterback.

It could happen, but I wouldn't bet the house on it.... :)

recxjake
12-19-2007, 09:51 AM
Here's Rudy's latest TV ad going up in NH tomorrow..

<object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/5_VH3E_hbkg&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/5_VH3E_hbkg&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>

recxjake
12-19-2007, 09:54 AM
That scenario is much more likely than the one recxjake is counting on.

I still think that's a tough road though. To continue the football analogy, instead of a 50-60 yard Hail Mary....it's more like starting at your own 20 yard line, down by 7, with 60 seconds to play and only one time-out.

Brett Favre or Joe Montana better be your quarterback in that scenario. However, I think Romney has Damon Huard for quarterback.

It could happen, but I wouldn't bet the house on it.... :)

There are still thousands of variables along the way... I wouldn't count Rudy out just yet.... I think he has a few tricks up he sleeve.

patteeu
12-19-2007, 09:54 AM
Wrong... Romney had 3 offices now, 85 paid staffers, and is spending 1.2 million this week on ads in Iowa... if he loses to Huckabee who hasn't spent crap it will be over for Romney.

Romney's team did a terrible job with expectations... they HAVE to win Iowa.

Why do you think the number of offices or staffers matters? The only people who care about those things are the people involved in the campaigns and perhaps some of the most sophisticated campaign watchers. The people who matter in an election are the voters and, by and large, the voters don't know about and don't care about how much campaign infrastructure each candidate has. Romney isn't nearly as dependent on downstream campaign contributions as some of the other candidates so the perception of the most sophisticated campaign watchers is less important to him than it would be to someone like Giuliani, McCain, or Thompson.

If Romney went into the last week before caucus night as the obvious front-runner and then came out in third place or worse, it would be a big blow. As things sit today, he'll go into caucus night looking like he's either trailing Huckabee or barely keeping pace. Either way, if he loses a relatively close race to Huckabee, he'll meet the expectations that matter. If he wins, he'll be exceeding expectations. The expectations game has changed.

recxjake
12-19-2007, 10:13 AM
Why do you think the number of offices or staffers matters? The only people who care about those things are the people involved in the campaigns and perhaps some of the most sophisticated campaign watchers. The people who matter in an election are the voters and, by and large, the voters don't know about and don't care about how much campaign infrastructure each candidate has. Romney isn't nearly as dependent on downstream campaign contributions as some of the other candidates so the perception of the most sophisticated campaign watchers is less important to him than it would be to someone like Giuliani, McCain, or Thompson.

If Romney went into the last week before caucus night as the obvious front-runner and then came out in third place or worse, it would be a big blow. As things sit today, he'll go into caucus night looking like he's either trailing Huckabee or barely keeping pace. Either way, if he loses a relatively close race to Huckabee, he'll meet the expectations that matter. If he wins, he'll be exceeding expectations. The expectations game has changed.


GOTV- who can get the vote out. Romney has bought an Army... if he can't get his troops out, even with a huge Army he isn't worth anything.

patteeu
12-19-2007, 10:28 AM
GOTV- who can get the vote out. Romney has bought an Army... if he can't get his troops out, even with a huge Army he isn't worth anything.

I doubt if Rudy would have won Iowa even if he'd have bought the same Army. Does that mean Rudy isn't worth anything?

dirk digler
12-19-2007, 11:01 AM
"National" polls at this point....are virtually meaningless, except as a barometer of current 'conventional wisdom' and name-recognition. Seriously.

The only polls that matter right now are the polls of the first 3-4 primary states/dates (and, currently, while Romney and Huck seem well-positioned, a brokered convention is just as likely at this point)....because the outcome in those will have a large and profound impact on subsequent primaries and, eventually, on the fluid and whimsical "national" polls.

I agree but Jake only posts national polls to show us how far ahead Rudy is.

The fact is Rudy is not going to be the nominee his numbers are dropping like flies.

I could wrong though

Mr. Kotter
12-19-2007, 11:16 AM
I agree but Jake only posts national polls to show us how far ahead Rudy is.

The fact is Rudy is not going to be the nominee his numbers are dropping like flies.

I could wrong though

I agree, except Rudy could still win.....although his nomination is less likely than Romney or Huck at this point.

Nationally, Rudy, McCain, and Fred are definitely the "dark horses" at this point. They draw, largely, from the same factions within the party--which is why none of the three have gained significant traction. Paul is the donkey on the track, and true to character....will be a pain in the ass to the end.

It's still anybody's ballgame though, at the moment anyway. By Superbowl week, things will begin to sort themselves out....somewhat.

I suspect at that point, one or two of the players could drop-out....how that plays out will go a long way toward determining the ultimate candidate. Who will benefit will depends on which of the dark horses "fall."

dirk digler
12-19-2007, 07:34 PM
Rudy is going down

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119810092342540425.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

Ahead of Iowa,
Republican Race
Is Wide Open
By JOHN HARWOOD
December 20, 2007; Page A1

WASHINGTON -- Two weeks before the Iowa caucus, the race for president, while tightening among Democrats, is wide open on the Republican side, highlighting the unusual fluidity of the first campaign for the White House in over a half- century that doesn't include an incumbent president or vice president.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that Rudy Giuliani has lost his national lead in the Republican field after a flurry of negative publicity about his personal and business activities, setting the stage for what could be the party's most competitive nomination fight in decades.

After holding a double-digit advantage over his nearest rivals just six weeks ago, the former New York City mayor now is tied nationally with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 20% among Republicans, just slightly ahead of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 17% and Arizona Sen. John McCain at 14%. Other polls show Mr. Giuliani's lead shrinking in Florida, one of the states he has based his strategy around.

With the poll's margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.1 percentage points, that puts Mr. Huckabee, who had only single-digit support in the previous poll in early November, within striking distance of the leaders. Mr. Romney's national support has also nearly doubled since then.

At the same time, Mr. Romney has fallen behind Mr. Huckabee in the leadoff nominating contest in Iowa. The results signal a dramatic shift in the nature of the Republican contest: In a party with a history of rewarding established front-runners, there's no longer a front-runner of any kind.

"There is no hierarchy," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC survey with Republican counterpart Bill McInturff. "There is no establishment candidate. The Republican voters are searching."

The Democratic race has remained a more stable contest among the top contenders in the national rankings, with former first lady Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York maintaining a 22-percentage-point national lead over Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois. But she faces an increasingly stiff challenge in Iowa and other early states from Mr. Obama and 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards.
[Go to poll]
See poll results (Adobe Acrobat required)
Drilling Down: How support for the Republican field varies by age, gender and other factors.
Complete coverage: Campaign 2008

Mr. Obama's momentum in Iowa has spilled over into New Hampshire, where he has narrowed Mrs. Clinton's lead while arguing that he is more in tune with the national mood for change.

The Journal/NBC poll may fuel arguments by the Obama campaign that their candidate is more broadly acceptable than Mrs. Clinton, a polarizing figure whose 44% negative rating exceeds her 42% positive mark. The poll shows Mr. Obama leading Mr. Giuliani by a larger margin than Mrs. Clinton does -- a change from early November, when the data suggested they would both fare about the same against him.

Against Mr. Huckabee, Mr. Obama leads by 48% to 36%, while Mrs. Clinton has a narrow 46% to 44% edge.

Amid the race's changing dynamics, candidates in both parties are scrambling to readjust their messages and their tactics. With his standing slipping nationally and in key states, Mr. Giuliani this week accelerated his unconventional retreat from the early voting states to focus on later contests where he thinks his Northeastern roots and his record as a moderate on social issues may play better. He was in Missouri yesterday, one of several states holding Feb. 5 primaries. "A baseball game, you've got to play nine innings, and whoever gets the most runs at the end of the nine innings wins," he said in defense of his strategy.

As he climbs in the polls, Mr. Huckabee is starting to get the kind of scrutiny his better-known rivals have gotten for some time, and which could erode some of his newfound support. Mr. Romney released a new ad this week attacking Mr. Huckabee's heavy volume of prisoner pardons as governor, and stepped up criticism of his lack of foreign-policy experience.

"Here at Huckabee for President headquarters we like to call it 'Operation Kitchen Sink,'" campaign manager Chip Saltsman wrote in a fund-raising missive to supporters this week. Mr. Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, has responded with positive rhetoric and an Iowa ad hailing the spirit of "the birth of Christ."

Another factor injecting uncertainty in the race: The mood of the electorate is rapidly shifting, as attention to Iraq fades and economic concerns gain, according to the poll. In recent months, "I kinda switched between Romney, Giuliani and Thompson," says 25-year-old Adam Cates, who works in real estate in Conway, S.C., and attended a Romney rally yesterday. Now rising fears about the economy have him backing Mr. Romney, a former private-equity executive.

Among Democrats, Mrs. Clinton has attempted to win Iowa voters who complain she's cold and impersonal with events featuring her mother, daughter and childhood friends. Mr. Obama, sensing new openings, has spent two days this week in New Hampshire, which votes Jan. 8, to chip away at the firewall Mrs. Clinton has tried to erect there should she lose in Iowa.

The ferment is far more pronounced in the Republican field, partly because of President Bush's low popularity; in the latest survey, Mr. Bush's approval stood at 34%. It also reflects an aging of the conservative coalition that Ronald Reagan marshaled in 1980, with economic, national security, and social-issue voters all vying for supremacy.

"Defining itself as Ronald Reagan's party no longer works," says James Reichley, a onetime White House aide to Republican president Gerald Ford. "There's got to be some new definition of what it means to be a Republican."

Indeed, the serial erosion of support for Messrs. McCain, Romney and Giuliani has alarmed some longtime Republicans about the prospect of disarray persisting until next summer's Republican National Convention in Minneapolis. While that might produce the sort of attention-grabbing suspense that some political reformers have pined for, modern electoral strategists place far more value on rapidly uniting party constituencies for the general election battle ahead.

In such a fluid contest, the pollster Mr. Hart cautions, "Within a month its going to be totally different." A fifth candidate, former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee, also draws double-digit support at 11% after shooting up to second-place in the Republican field earlier this year.

Meanwhile, the campaign agenda is shifting as well. Perceptions of military progress in Iraq have reduced the proportion of voters who cite Iraq as a top priority for Washington to 36% from 46% last month. With many Americans now expecting a recession, health care and the economy now rank nearly as high as Iraq, which could prove unwelcome for Messrs. McCain and Giuliani, both identified with national-security issues.

"I was kind of for McCain but I don't know, it just seems like Romney's got a better act," said Ralph Stork, a 79-year-old retired marina operator at the Romney event in South Carolina yesterday. "We've got a lot of bad things going on in the economy, we've got housing problem, the banks have all a lot of problems with it. It just doesn't look good, you know?" he said. "We need somebody that can really handle and has some knowledge about how to go about doing that."