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jAZ
12-20-2007, 09:50 AM
This is a huge blow to Rudy's strategy. He was hoping to be able to ignore the results of the early primaries and run a national campaign. He needed to be the presumptive nominee nationally in order to get later voters to overlook his early losses.

He has lost that strategic cushion now that the GOP voters are learning who he is.

This shatters the effectiveness of Rudy's campaign strategy....

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22327166/

Giuliani plummets in latest NBC/WSJ poll

By Mark Murray
Deputy political director
NBC News
updated 4:29 p.m. MT, Wed., Dec. 19, 2007

Mark Murray
Deputy political director

WASHINGTON - After a month’s worth of mostly negative media reports, his campaign’s decision to decrease his activity in the early nominating states and the rise of GOP rival Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani’s national standing has plummeted in the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, providing more evidence that the contest for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination is wide open.

According to the poll, Giuliani — who has been the clear leader in all previous NBC/Journal surveys this year — is now tied nationally with Mitt Romney at 20 percent among Republican primary voters. They are followed by Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, at 17 percent; Arizona Sen. John McCain at 14 percent; and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson at 11 percent.

For Giuliani, it's a decline of 13 points since last month, when the former New York City mayor led the GOP field at 33 percent — followed by McCain at 16 percent, Thompson at 15 percent, Romney at 11 percent and Huckabee at 8 percent.

“I think there’s, at this point, no national (Republican) front-runner,” says GOP pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. “We have literally four or five candidates, all of whom has a chance to be the nominee.”

“The only thing we know is that the Republicans are in a total muddle,” Hart adds. “Can anybody win? Yeah.”

The poll comes after further media scrutiny over Giuliani’s record and personal life, as well as his campaign’s move to lessen its focus in the early nominating states, like Iowa and New Hampshire. It also comes after Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, gave a highly publicized speech on faith and after Huckabee vaulted into the lead in Iowa.

Other recent national surveys also show a tight national race among the Republican presidential candidates. A Reuters/Zogby poll has Giuliani at 23 percent, Huckabee at 22 percent, Romney at 16 percent, Thompson at 13 percent and McCain at 12 percent. And a new USA Today/Gallup poll has Giuliani at 27 percent, Huckabee at 16 percent, and McCain, Thompson and Romney tied at 14 percent each.

How far has Giuliani’s standing dropped? Just 37 percent view him favorably in this survey, compared with an equal 37 percent who have a negative impression of him. In March, a month after he filed his statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, 58 percent viewed Giuliani favorably versus only 14 percent who saw him in a negative light.

“That’s a huge shift on Giuliani,” McInturff notes.

“He’s the old man in the sea,” Hart states more bluntly. “By the time he gets to Florida, there’s only going to be skeletal remains,” referring to Giuliani’s strategy of counting on larger states, like Florida (which holds its primary on Jan. 29) and California, New Jersey and New York (which go on Feb. 5), rather than the early states, like Iowa and New Hampshire.

recxjake
12-20-2007, 10:09 AM
Wait, you mean he's tied for first?! ROFL

The WSJ has Rudy tied, but the USA Today has Rudy up 11... ROFL

Rudy is in prime position.... when he wins Florida, that erases all prior loses... opens up FEB 5 for him where he wins all the big states and takes the nomination!

recxjake
12-20-2007, 10:12 AM
New Iowa, New Hampshire Polls
From American Research Group:

Iowa:

GOP: Huckabee 28, McCain 20, Romney 17, Giuliani 13

Dems: Clinton 29, Obama 25, Edwards 18

New Hampshire:

GOP: Romney 26, McCain 26, Giuliani 16, Huckabee 11, Thompson 4, Paul 4

Dems: Clinton 38, Obama 24, Edwards 13 The Page, 11:29 AM

Romney is imploding... If he gets third in Iowa, he is DONE... which leads to McCain winning NH... which leads to Rudy winning the nomination in the states down the road.

BIG_DADDY
12-20-2007, 10:55 AM
Wait, you mean he's tied for first?! ROFL

The WSJ has Rudy tied, but the USA Today has Rudy up 11... ROFL

Rudy is in prime position.... when he wins Florida, that erases all prior loses... opens up FEB 5 for him where he wins all the big states and takes the nomination!


I told you rudy wasn't going to be our next president. Your'e the one I made the $100 bet with right?

Rudy is going down like a 16 year old on prom night.

KC Dan
12-20-2007, 11:10 AM
The only way I see Rudy winning the nomination is an attack on our soil before February. He's done

Amnorix
12-20-2007, 01:11 PM
I've had trouble all along believe Guiliani was electable as a Republican. We'll see.

Cochise
12-20-2007, 01:14 PM
I've had trouble all along believe Guiliani was electable as a Republican. We'll see.

It wasn't that he was unelectable. He was just depending on no good alternatives coming along. Clearly people are starting to believe that there are good alternatives.

His was always to have been a marriage of convenience.

Amnorix
12-20-2007, 01:17 PM
It wasn't that he was unelectable. He was just depending on no good alternatives coming along. Clearly people are starting to believe that there are good alternatives.

His was always to have been a marriage of convenience.
I wont' disagree, but I guess I'll rephrase what I said and put it this way:

I've found it hard all along to think that Republicans wouldn't find a choice they liked better than Guiliani, who doesn't align himself well with some very powerful factions within the GOP.

How's that?

Taco John
12-20-2007, 03:25 PM
This would explain why Recx stopped posting opinion polls, no? ;)

recxjake
12-20-2007, 03:37 PM
This would explain why Recx stopped posting opinion polls, no? ;)

RUDY IS WINNING!!!!! RON PAUL IS LOSING!!!!! HAHAHAHAHA

ROFL

recxjake
12-20-2007, 03:40 PM
Poll Watch: Quinnipiac GOP Florida Primary
Quinnipiac GOP Florida Primary

Rudy Giuliani 28% (30%)
Mike Huckabee 21% (11%)
Mitt Romney 20% (12%)
John McCain 13% (9%)
Fred Thompson 8% (10%)
Ron Paul 2% (4%)
Duncan Hunter 1% (1%)
Don’t Know 6% (17%)
Survey of 397 likely Republican primary voters was conducted December 12 - 18. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 26 - December 3 are in parentheses.

recxjake
12-20-2007, 03:41 PM
Field Research GOP California Primary

Rudy Giuliani 25% (25%)
Mike Huckabee 17% (4%)
Mitt Romney 15% (13%)
John McCain 12% (12%)
Fred Thompson 6% (12%)
Duncan Hunter 3% (3%)
Ron Paul 3% (4%)
Undecided 18% (22%)
Survey of 439 likely Republican primary voters was conducted December 10-17. The margin of error is +/- 5.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 11-21 are in parentheses.

Taco John
12-20-2007, 04:11 PM
RUDY IS WINNING!!!!! RON PAUL IS LOSING!!!!! HAHAHAHAHA

ROFL



Weren't we going to bet? You said that Rudy would beat Paul in every single state. Did you want to pick that back up? I'd gladly take that one.

recxjake
12-20-2007, 04:14 PM
Weren't we going to bet? You said that Rudy would beat Paul in every single state. Did you want to pick that back up? I'd gladly take that one.


Rudy >>>> Ron... every single state in the nation.

jAZ
12-20-2007, 08:50 PM
This would explain why Recx stopped posting opinion polls, no? ;)
He'll be posting this one soon. ;)

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/12/fox_poll_now_shows_rudy_has_lost_national_lead.php

Another Poll Shows Rudy Has Lost National Lead
By Eric Kleefeld - December 20, 2007, 3:38PM
Another national poll -- the new Fox News survey -- finds that Rudy has lost his national lead. And strikingly, it also finds a three-way tie nationally for the Republican nomination — with the previously moribund John McCain one of the trio.

Rudy has 20%, Huckabee 19%, and McCain 19%. Behind them are Mitt Romney at 11% and Fred Thompson with 10%. A month ago, Rudy had a healthy lead with 33%, with McCain his closest competitor at 17%. Huckabee, meanwhile, has shot up 11 points.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has actually widened her national lead even as she's started to struggle in the key primary states. Hillary has 49%, Barack Obama 20%, and John Edwards 10%. A month ago it was Hillary 44%, Obama 23%, and Edwards 12%.

wazu
12-20-2007, 10:31 PM
Rudy >>>> Ron... every single state in the nation.

I still haven't heard you accept the bet, or put anything on the line for this. And It's time to adjust your power rankings to show Huckabee on top if you ever want them to have any credibility.