PDA

View Full Version : What needs to happen this Sunday for the Chiefs to get the #2 pick overall...


wazu
12-26-2007, 10:29 PM
Instead of playoff scenarios, here are the Week 17 scenarios required to get the Chiefs the #2 pick overall.

1. Chiefs lose to the Jets (2 birds with one stone here)
2. Rams beat the Cardinals
3. Falcons beat the Seahawks -- CHECK!
4. Strength of schedule advantage holds up. (We have a one game edge on St. Louis right now, link below for more on this.)

http://www.ourlads.com/draftsequence.cfm

For all of you who were wondering but didn't want to do the five minutes of research, you're welcome.


EDIT: cdcox is keeping a thread with updated scenarios now that the #2 pick is out of reach. I would go there if I were you. It's better.

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=177667

RJ
12-26-2007, 10:31 PM
Valuable info, thanks for posting.

chiefforlife
12-26-2007, 10:32 PM
Thanks. It seems possible...

FAX
12-26-2007, 10:33 PM
We can do this, guys!!!

Go Chiefs!!!

FAX

doomy3
12-26-2007, 10:33 PM
REPOST!!

chiefbowe82
12-26-2007, 10:36 PM
didn't parcells say the phins are taking dorsey

chiefbowe82
12-26-2007, 10:37 PM
btw when do the chiefs even play since their game got moved :)

SBK
12-26-2007, 10:44 PM
didn't parcells say the phins are taking dorsey

Who cares? At #2 we can get the best S to convert to CB on the board!!!

evolve27
12-26-2007, 10:55 PM
I have the Samie faith.

Frankie
12-26-2007, 10:55 PM
Instead of playoff scenarios, here are the Week 17 scenarios required to get the Chiefs the #2 pick overall.

1. Chiefs lose to the Jets (2 birds with one stone here)
2. Rams beat the Cardinals
3. Falcons beat the Seahawks
4. Strength of schedule advantage holds up. (We have a one game edge on St. Louis right now, link below for more on this.)
Thanks. Now do the same for us getting the 3rd pick.

chiefbowe82
12-26-2007, 10:56 PM
My Brett Farves back and your defense is in trouble

cdcox
12-26-2007, 10:57 PM
Instead of playoff scenarios, here are the Week 17 scenarios required to get the Chiefs the #2 pick overall.

1. Chiefs lose to the Jets (2 birds with one stone here)
2. Rams beat the Cardinals
3. Falcons beat the Seahawks
4. Strength of schedule advantage holds up. (We have a one game edge on St. Louis right now, link below for more on this.)

http://www.ourlads.com/draftsequence.cfm

For all of you who were wondering but didn't want to do the five minutes of research, you're welcome. Repost police, kiss my ass.

#2 is a pipe dream. It could happen, but it is a long, long shot. Even if 1, 2, and 3 happen, we still only have a 20% chance of getting the #2 slot. After the likely outcome of this week's games we have reals SOS issues with St. Louis and Oakland. With your 1, 2, and 3 assumptions here is the breakdown:

#2 20%
#3 52%
#4 25%
#5 3%

I would be happy with the #4 pick and ecstatic with #3. If you think we are getting the #2 you are in Proctor Homer Country.

chiefbowe82
12-26-2007, 10:59 PM
#2 is a pipe dream. It could happen, but it is a long, long shot. Even if 1, 2, and 3 happen, we still only have a 20% chance of getting the #2 slot. After the likely outcome of this week's games we have reals SOS issues with St. Louis and Oakland. With your 1, 2, and 3 assumptions here is the breakdown:

#2 20%
#3 52%
#4 25%
#5 3%

I would be happy with the #4 pick and ecstatic with #3. If you think we are getting the #2 you are in Proctor Homer Country.

your confusing me

FAX
12-26-2007, 11:00 PM
Hey, guys. Let's don't get carried away, here. The fact is that there remain some serious obstacles standing between us and our goal.

We still have to lose to the Jets and that isn't easy.

FAX

wazu
12-26-2007, 11:03 PM
Hey, guys. Let's don't get carried away, here. The fact is that there remain some serious obstacles standing between us and our goal.

We still have to lose to the Jets and that isn't easy.

FAX

Yeah, but we've got the guys to do it.

cdcox
12-26-2007, 11:04 PM
your confusing me

No, I've been telling you the exact odds of every draft slot since mid-September. Everyone else keeps posting random stuff. If you follow me, I will know exactly where the Chiefs stand with respect to the playoffs and draft slots for the rest of (insert "your" or "my" depending on who lives longer) life.

evolve27
12-26-2007, 11:04 PM
Yeah, but we've got the guys to do it.

Croyle, oops.

FAX
12-26-2007, 11:05 PM
Yeah, but we've got the guys to do it.

Don't get me wrong, Mr. Adam, I like our chances. But this could be one of those trap games.

FAX

bowener
12-26-2007, 11:08 PM
AWESOME!!! Two years in a row for a miracle, but what a turn around!! :rockon:

bowener
12-26-2007, 11:10 PM
Don't get me wrong, Mr. Adam, I like our chances. But this could be one of those trap games.

FAX

So when you say 'trap game', do you mean the opposite of the traditional sense, where we could mess around and win the thing?

FAX
12-26-2007, 11:14 PM
So when you say 'trap game', do you mean the opposite of the traditional sense, where we could mess around and win the thing?

I'm just concerned that our guys will be looking ahead, Mr. bowener.

FAX

Guru
12-26-2007, 11:15 PM
No, I've been telling you the exact odds of every draft slot since mid-September. Everyone else keeps posting random stuff. If you follow me, I will know exactly where the Chiefs stand with respect to the playoffs and draft slots for the rest of (insert "your" or "my" depending on who lives longer) life.
Where will we be drafting in 2009 then? :)

cdcox
12-26-2007, 11:25 PM
Where will we be drafting in 2009 then? :)

Top 10, pick. That's just conjecture, no math or science behind it. We aren't going to fix all of our problems in a year.

Guru
12-26-2007, 11:30 PM
Top 10, pick. That's just conjecture, no math or science behind it. We aren't going to fix all of our problems in a year.
That should be two decent first rounders then. At least, lets hope so.

Valiant
12-26-2007, 11:34 PM
Unfortunately whats going to happen..

Herm is getting ready to win his SuperBowl against the Jets and wins 41-14 on the road..

Herm will do whatever it takes to win this one game this year..

kcfanXIII
12-26-2007, 11:47 PM
Unfortunately whats going to happen..

Herm is getting ready to win his SuperBowl against the Jets and wins 41-14 on the road..

Herm will do whatever it takes to win this one game this year..


this is almost to easy, you PLAY to WIN the GAME!!!!

just for the record, i hope we lose. after backing into the playoffs last year, it'd be nice to "back-in" to the #2 spot.

i can see herm now, "we lost this one. they didn't lose their games, they had a chance to, but they didn't"

Fruit Ninja
12-27-2007, 12:50 AM
Yeah, but we've got the guys to do it.
Yep, we got the rotwood offensive line. We can do it.

KC Jones
12-27-2007, 06:16 AM
I'm disturbed and disgusted by all of the negativity around here. A true fan would know that we can and will lose to the Jets.

ottawa_chiefs_fan
12-27-2007, 06:51 AM
I'm thinkin' 0-0 tie - that would really screw things up.

FRCDFED
12-27-2007, 07:36 AM
#2 is a pipe dream. It could happen, but it is a long, long shot. Even if 1, 2, and 3 happen, we still only have a 20% chance of getting the #2 slot. After the likely outcome of this week's games we have reals SOS issues with St. Louis and Oakland. With your 1, 2, and 3 assumptions here is the breakdown:

#2 20%
#3 52%
#4 25%
#5 3%

I would be happy with the #4 pick and ecstatic with #3. If you think we are getting the #2 you are in Proctor Homer Country.Aren't 49% of all stats just made up? :shrug:

At least that is what I heard :p

Groves
12-27-2007, 07:41 AM
This is a real George Costanza moment. We've been waiting our whole lives to screw this up. We can do it!

Toad
12-27-2007, 08:33 AM
Can we send an "official" NFL telegram to Gonzo and Allen that the Pro Bowl practices start this Sunday in Hawaii? That would help those odds.

Rain Man
12-27-2007, 08:38 AM
This is a real George Costanza moment. We've been waiting our whole lives to screw this up. We can do it!

The key will be making sure that our game plan and philosophy remain exactly the same. My worry is that Herm will start taking stupid risks just to try to lose, like throwing on third down and running routes longer than three yards.

kregger
12-27-2007, 09:48 AM
The key will be making sure that our game plan and philosophy remain exactly the same. My worry is that Herm will start taking stupid risks just to try to lose, like throwing on third down and running routes longer than three yards.
Naw, he'll start Samie Parker and we're good for a few dives of at least 4 yards.

BigChiefFan
12-27-2007, 09:52 AM
I can't see the Falcons beating the Seahawks. The other two games could go either way. I sure hope those teams win and we lose.

FringeNC
12-27-2007, 09:55 AM
Unfortunately whats going to happen..

Herm is getting ready to win his SuperBowl against the Jets and wins 41-14 on the road..

Herm will do whatever it takes to win this one game this year..

I don't know. Mangini is having a terrible season too, and losing to Herm would put an exclamation point on it. Neither one of these coaches want to deal with the fallout of losing this game.

There is a reason we are a 6.5 point underdog to a f'n 3-12 team: We suck, and Herm is a terrible coach.

ChiefButthurt
12-27-2007, 09:58 AM
Let's hope their playbook looks like this on Sunday. Afterall, how many teams get ****ing booted from national TV because they suck? Huh how many? Still embarrassed to be a fan.



Kansas City Chiefs at 13:20
10-T.Sauerbrun kicks 63 yards from DEN 30 to KC 7. 80-J.Webb to KC 28 for 21 yards (53-L.Green). FUMBLES (53-L.Green), and recovers at KC 28. 80-J.Webb to KC 28 for no gain (53-L.Green).
1-10-KC 28 (13:13) 12-B.Croyle pass short right to 87-E.Kennison to KC 30 for 2 yards (24-C.Bailey).
2-8-KC 30 (12:36) 21-K.Smith left tackle to KC 37 for 7 yards (92-E.Dumervil).
3-1-KC 37 (11:51) 21-K.Smith left tackle to KC 37 for no gain (99-A.McKinley).
4-1-KC 37 (11:14) 2-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to DEN 11, Center-51-J.Darche. 17-G.Martinez to DEN 16 for 5 yards (34-T.Brackenridge).


Kansas City Chiefs at 07:13
10-T.Sauerbrun kicks 60 yards from DEN 30 to KC 10. 20-B.Sapp to KC 29 for 19 yards (53-L.Green).
1-10-KC 29 (7:06) PENALTY on KC-71-W.Svitek, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at KC 29 - No Play.
1-15-KC 24 (7:06) 12-B.Croyle pass short left to 88-T.Gonzalez pushed ob at KC 29 for 5 yards (52-I.Gold).
2-10-KC 29 (6:28) 21-K.Smith right end to KC 28 for -1 yards (24-C.Bailey).
3-11-KC 28 (5:44) (Shotgun) PENALTY on KC-87-E.Kennison, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at KC 28 - No Play.
3-16-KC 23 (5:28) (Shotgun) 12-B.Croyle pass short right to 88-T.Gonzalez to KC 37 for 14 yards (41-K.Paymah).
4-2-KC 37 (4:52) 2-D.Colquitt punts 46 yards to DEN 17, Center-51-J.Darche, fair catch by 17-G.Martinez.

Kansas City Chiefs at 15:00
1-10-KC 37 (15:00) PENALTY on DEN-99-A.McKinley, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at KC 37 - No Play.
1-5-KC 42 (15:00) 12-B.Croyle pass incomplete short middle to 82-D.Bowe (21-H.Abdullah).
2-5-KC 42 (14:55) 30-G.Harris up the middle to KC 43 for 1 yard (58-N.Webster).
3-4-KC 43 (14:09) 12-B.Croyle pass incomplete short middle to 82-D.Bowe (24-C.Bailey). PENALTY on DEN-92-E.Dumervil, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at KC 43 - No Play.
1-10-KC 48 (14:03) 12-B.Croyle pass short left to 46-B.Grigsby pushed ob at DEN 43 for 9 yards (58-N.Webster).
2-1-DEN 43 (13:35) 30-G.Harris up the middle to DEN 43 for no gain (58-N.Webster).
3-1-DEN 43 (12:56) 30-G.Harris up the middle to DEN 43 for no gain (24-C.Bailey).
4-1-DEN 43 (12:12) 30-G.Harris up the middle to DEN 40 for 3 yards (47-J.Lynch).
1-10-DEN 40 (11:34) 21-K.Smith left end to DEN 41 for -1 yards (55-D.Williams).
2-11-DEN 41 (10:51) 12-B.Croyle sacked at DEN 45 for -4 yards (52-I.Gold).
3-15-DEN 45 (10:13) (Shotgun) 12-B.Croyle pass short right to 88-T.Gonzalez to DEN 32 for 13 yards (22-D.Foxworth).
4-2-DEN 32 (9:33) 21-K.Smith right tackle to DEN 30 for 2 yards (55-D.Williams).
1-10-DEN 30 (8:52) 12-B.Croyle pass incomplete deep middle to 82-D.Bowe (55-D.Williams).
2-10-DEN 30 (8:39) PENALTY on KC-12-B.Croyle, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 30 - No Play.
2-15-DEN 35 (8:39) 12-B.Croyle pass short left to 88-T.Gonzalez to DEN 26 for 9 yards (32-D.Bly).
3-6-DEN 26 (8:05) 12-B.Croyle sacked at DEN 32 for -6 yards (92-E.Dumervil).
4-12-DEN 32 (7:27) 12-B.Croyle pass deep right to 82-D.Bowe to DEN 10 for 22 yards (21-H.Abdullah).
1-10-DEN 10 (6:42) PENALTY on KC-60-C.Terry, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 10 - No Play.
1-15-DEN 15 (6:16) 12-B.Croyle pass short left to 88-T.Gonzalez for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5-J.Carney extra point is GOOD, Center-51-J.Darche, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
KC 7 DEN 14 Plays: 15 Possession: 8:51

Kansas City Chiefs at 01:55
Penalty came at the touchdown for excessive celebration. 10-T.Sauerbrun kicks 42 yards from DEN 15 to KC 43. 90-T.McBride to KC 49 for 6 yards (37-C.Sapp).
3-8-DEN 49 (1:20) 12-B.Croyle pass incomplete deep middle to 80-J.Webb.
4-8-DEN 49 (1:17) 2-D.Colquitt punts 34 yards to DEN 15, Center-51-J.Darche, fair catch by 17-G.Martinez.

3rd Quarter
Kansas City Chiefs at 15:00
10-T.Sauerbrun kicks 70 yards from DEN 30 to KC 0. 20-B.Sapp to KC 32 for 32 yards (51-J.Winborn).
1-10-KC 32 (14:53) 21-K.Smith up the middle to KC 30 for -2 yards (60-J.Engelberger; 79-M.Thomas). KC-88-T.Gonzalez was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
2-12-KC 30 (14:24) 21-K.Smith up the middle to KC 33 for 3 yards (92-E.Dumervil; 55-D.Williams).
3-9-KC 33 (13:47) (Shotgun) 12-B.Croyle pass incomplete short right to 84-K.Wilson.
4-9-KC 33 (13:40) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to DEN 25, Center-51-J.Darche. 17-G.Martinez to DEN 34 for 9 yards (98-N.Harris).

Kansas City Chiefs at 06:58
10-T.Sauerbrun kicks 69 yards from DEN 30 to KC 1. 20-B.Sapp to KC 14 for 13 yards.
1-10-KC 14 (6:52) 12-B.Croyle pass incomplete short left to 21-K.Smith.
2-10-KC 14 (6:46) 12-B.Croyle pass deep right intended for 84-K.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bailey at KC 48. 24-C.Bailey to KC 48 for no gain (84-K.Wilson).


Kansas City Chiefs at 02:14
10-T.Sauerbrun kicks 63 yards from DEN 30 to KC 7. 20-B.Sapp to KC 18 for 11 yards (51-J.Winborn).
1-10-KC 18 (2:10) 12-B.Croyle pass short left to 80-J.Webb to KC 26 for 8 yards (41-K.Paymah).
2-2-KC 26 (1:49) 12-B.Croyle sacked at KC 19 for -7 yards (92-E.Dumervil).
3-9-KC 19 (1:27) 12-B.Croyle sacked at KC 17 for -2 yards (92-E.Dumervil). FUMBLES (92-E.Dumervil), RECOVERED by DEN-96-T.Crowder at KC 17. 96-T.Crowder to KC 17 for no gain (12-B.Croyle).


Kansas City Chiefs at 00:40
10-T.Sauerbrun kicks 64 yards from DEN 30 to KC 6. 20-B.Sapp to KC 15 for 9 yards (38-S.Cargile).
1-10-KC 15 (:35) (Shotgun) 21-K.Smith up the middle to KC 16 for 1 yard (79-M.Thomas).
END QUARTER 3
4th Quarter expand [+] collapse [-]
Kansas City Chiefs continues ...
2-9-KC 16 (15:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on KC-76-J.Welbourn, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at KC 16 - No Play.
2-13-KC 12 (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-B.Croyle pass incomplete deep middle to 88-T.Gonzalez (22-D.Foxworth, 52-I.Gold).
3-13-KC 12 (14:54) (Shotgun) 12-B.Croyle pass incomplete deep right to 82-D.Bowe (24-C.Bailey).
4-13-KC 12 (14:48) 2-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to DEN 36, Center-51-J.Darche. 17-G.Martinez to DEN 38 for 2 yards (51-J.Darche).

Kansas City Chiefs at 12:57
1-10-KC 20 (12:57) 12-B.Croyle pass incomplete short left to 82-D.Bowe (32-D.Bly).
2-10-KC 20 (12:52) 21-K.Smith left end to KC 18 for -2 yards (58-N.Webster).
3-12-KC 18 (12:15) (Shotgun) 12-B.Croyle pass short left to 21-K.Smith to KC 16 for -2 yards (51-J.Winborn).
4-14-KC 16 (11:39) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to DEN 36, Center-51-J.Darche, out of bounds.

Kansas City Chiefs at 09:12
1-10-KC 1 (9:12) 12-B.Croyle pass incomplete short left to 46-B.Grigsby.
2-10-KC 1 (9:08) 21-K.Smith left guard to KC 1 for no gain (24-C.Bailey, 68-S.Harris).
3-10-KC 1 (8:23) 21-K.Smith left tackle to KC 1 for no gain (47-J.Lynch).
4-10-KC 1 (7:51) 2-D.Colquitt punts 58 yards to DEN 41, Center-51-J.Darche. 17-G.Martinez MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 41. 17-G.Martinez to DEN 39 for -2 yards (44-J.Page).

Kansas City Chiefs at 05:23
1-10-KC 20 (5:23) 12-B.Croyle pass incomplete short left to 88-T.Gonzalez (51-J.Winborn).
2-10-KC 20 (5:19) 12-B.Croyle pass short left to 82-D.Bowe to KC 33 for 13 yards (32-D.Bly).
1-10-KC 33 (4:42) 12-B.Croyle pass short left to 84-K.Wilson to KC 32 for -1 yards (58-N.Webster).
2-11-KC 32 (4:03) 12-B.Croyle pass short middle to 88-T.Gonzalez to KC 40 for 8 yards (52-I.Gold).
3-3-KC 40 (3:26) (Shotgun) 12-B.Croyle pass short right to 88-T.Gonzalez to DEN 48 for 12 yards (51-J.Winborn).
1-10-DEN 48 (2:43) 12-B.Croyle pass short left to 30-G.Harris to DEN 43 for 5 yards (51-J.Winborn).
2-5-DEN 43 (2:06) 12-B.Croyle sacked at DEN 43 for 0 yards (98-J.Mallard). FUMBLES (98-J.Mallard), RECOVERED by DEN-68-S.Harris at DEN 41. 68-S.Harris to DEN 41 for no gain (71-W.Svitek). Kansas City challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. (Timeout #1 at 01:57.)

Brock
12-27-2007, 09:59 AM
Not too crazy about having the #2, unless there's either a franchise QB or a franchise LT there.

ChiefButthurt
12-27-2007, 10:03 AM
Not too crazy about having the #2, unless there's either a franchise QB or a franchise LT there.

If they land there, maybe Carl can get a clue and trade down. :hmmm:

the Talking Can
12-27-2007, 10:07 AM
Not too crazy about having the #2, unless there's either a franchise QB or a franchise LT there.

why?

you have more leverage if you trade down, more points...you have higher picks in every other round...we want the highest pick possible regardless of the talent in the draft....

Mr. Laz
12-27-2007, 10:09 AM
#2 is a pipe dream. It could happen, but it is a long, long shot. Even if 1, 2, and 3 happen, we still only have a 20% chance of getting the #2 slot. After the likely outcome of this week's games we have reals SOS issues with St. Louis and Oakland. With your 1, 2, and 3 assumptions here is the breakdown:

#2 20%
#3 52%
#4 25%
#5 3%

I would be happy with the #4 pick and ecstatic with #3. If you think we are getting the #2 you are in Proctor Homer Country.

you really think our SOS can swing that much with 1 game?


here are the SOS for each team figured through to the end of the season. Now those numbers can change after this last game ..... but only by the 1 loss/win.

1 Miami 1-14 .533
2 St. Louis 3-12 .513
3 New York Jets 3-12 .525
4 Atlanta 3-12 .529
5 Kansas City 4-11 .508
6 Oakland 4-11 .513
7 Baltimore 4-11 .517
8 New England (frm San Fran) 5-10 .467


now if we tie with st. louis/atlanta then that means they have won ...

atlanta would beat seattle with a 10-5 record .... that should raise Atlanta's SOS.

st. louis would beat Arizona with a 7-8 record ... that should hold their SOS to even if not raise it.


losing to the jets 3-12 would lower our SOS :shrug:


if we tie with the rams/falcons i don't see how we don't get the tiebreakers.






.

Brock
12-27-2007, 10:09 AM
why?

you have more leverage if you trade down, more points...you have higher picks in every other round...we want the highest pick possible regardless of the talent in the draft....

It seems pretty hard to trade down. The fact that McFadden is there probably helps, but I don't know. The reason I really don't like being quite that high is that it seems you're boxed in, sort of like when the 49ers "had to" take Alex Smith.

the Talking Can
12-27-2007, 10:11 AM
It seems pretty hard to trade down. The fact that McFadden is there probably helps, but I don't know.

yeah, that may be...

I wonder if the Hunt family is willing to pay a top 3 $$$? I'm curious to see if they try to trade down regardless of who is there...

but I think McFadden or Long would have people willing to trade with us, assuming we didn't want Long...

Stryker
12-27-2007, 10:14 AM
I find it very hard to believe that Atlanta could beat Seattle - however, stranger things have happened.

If this scenerio were to work out, I hope we TRADE DOWN from #2 and get some good picks.

JERICHO
12-27-2007, 10:16 AM
I guess for one day i'll be a Falcons, Jets and Rams fan!!!

GO RAMS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GO FALCONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GO JETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

cdcox
12-27-2007, 10:22 AM
you really think our SOS can swing that much with 1 game?


here are the SOS for each team figured through to the end of the season. Now those numbers can change after this last game ..... but only by the 1 loss/win.

1 Miami 1-14 .533
2 St. Louis 3-12 .513
3 New York Jets 3-12 .525
4 Atlanta 3-12 .529
5 Kansas City 4-11 .508
6 Oakland 4-11 .513
7 Baltimore 4-11 .517
8 New England (frm San Fran) 5-10 .467


now if we tie with st. louis/atlanta then that means they have won ...

atlanta would beat seattle with a 10-5 record .... that should raise Atlanta's SOS.

st. louis would beat Arizona with a 7-8 record ... that should hold their SOS to even if not raise it.


the only real question is how much lose to the jets 3-12 would lower our SOS.

The SOS can still swing a great deal. Every game played this week affects one of those teams SOS. For instance we want Denver, Oakland, SD, GB, Minn, Chi, Det, Cin, Indy, Jax, Hou and Tenn to lose (actually, this is not possible since there some of those teams play each other).

kepp
12-27-2007, 10:23 AM
Naw, he'll start Samie Parker and we're good for a few dives of at least 4 yards.
That would be sneaky smart of Herm. Sammie could get an unsportsmanlike penalty for his celebration of a 4 yard catch on a 3rd and 7 and effectively negate the whole drive while still allowing Herm to deflect responsibility.

BigChiefFan
12-27-2007, 10:24 AM
Pretty bad that we are close to 5 months away from the draft and that's all we have to look forward to. That said, to be able to pick up Dorsey or Long in the draft would me a major coup. Screw the money-it's not like Carl didn't SAVE MILLIONS this year. He also CHOSE to not offer JA a contract this year, which would have lightened the load for next year-Carl is a half-assed GM, that really knows less than the average fan about players and how to actually utilize the cap to your best benefit. I think it's funny, that 19 years later, he's still learning on the job and will most likely **** up the pick, too.

Frosty
12-27-2007, 10:26 AM
I find it very hard to believe that Atlanta could beat Seattle - however, stranger things have happened.

Seattle has everything locked up and would have nothing to gain by winning this game. I am pretty sure that they won't play their starters much.

BigChiefFan
12-27-2007, 10:33 AM
Is Seattle locked in as the 3 seed in the NFC? Seeding always gives you something to play for.

Stryker
12-27-2007, 10:33 AM
Seattle has everything locked up and would have nothing to gain by winning this game. I am pretty sure that they won't play their starters much.

True.


GO FALCONS! RAMS! & J-E-T-S!

cdcox
12-27-2007, 10:38 AM
Is Seattle locked in as the 3 seed in the NFC? Seeding always gives you something to play for.

Yes.

Coogs
12-27-2007, 10:40 AM
you have higher picks in every other round

Not necessarily true. Look at this link.

http://www.drafthistory.com/years/2007.html


It appears there was an 8 way tie in records for positions 13-20.

There were several trades that makes it hard to follow, but if you look at the first round at these positions 18-Bengals, 19-Titans, and 20-Giants.

Then in round 2 you will see them all move up 1 spot. 17-Bengals, 18-Titans, 19-Giants.

Round 3 you will see no pick for 16 (I think the Bengals took somebody in the supplemental draft the year before. the LB from Virginia I think), 17-Titans, 18-Giants.

Round 4 has Bengals 15th, Titans 16th, Giants 17th

Round 5 has Bengals 14th, Titans 15th, Giants 16th

Round 6 has Bengals 13th, Titans 14th, Giants 15th

Round 7 has Bengals 20th, Titans 13th, Giants 14th


What that means is this...

If 6 teams wind up tied at 4 and 12, which could happen, and we pick 2nd in round 1, we would drop back to 7th in round 2, 6th in round 3, and so on.

Coogs
12-27-2007, 10:43 AM
You can sort of see the pattern for the Rams as well. 13th in the 1st, 20th in the 2nd. Chiefs had the 19th pick in the 3rd (for Dante?), 18th pick in the 4th (to the Lions?). 17th pick in the 5th. 16th pick in the 6th.

Frazod
12-27-2007, 10:45 AM
The number 2 pick.... I'm just trying to wrap my mind around how long the holdout will be when Carl tries to lowball the guy and calls his agent a cocksucker. :banghead:

BigChiefFan
12-27-2007, 10:47 AM
Looks like we need Oakland and Baltimore to win as well. I can't believe there are as many teams as us that suck so bad. I sure would like to have the 2nd pick in each round, instead of having to alternate.

The good news is Herm will most likley fold like a cheap suit in New York.

the Talking Can
12-27-2007, 10:51 AM
Not necessarily true. Look at this link.

http://www.drafthistory.com/years/2007.html


It appears there was an 8 way tie in records for positions 13-20.

There were several trades that makes it hard to follow, but if you look at the first round at these positions 18-Bengals, 19-Titans, and 20-Giants.

Then in round 2 you will see them all move up 1 spot. 17-Bengals, 18-Titans, 19-Giants.

Round 3 you will see no pick for 16 (I think the Bengals took somebody in the supplemental draft the year before. the LB from Virginia I think), 17-Titans, 18-Giants.

Round 4 has Bengals 15th, Titans 16th, Giants 17th

Round 5 has Bengals 14th, Titans 15th, Giants 16th

Round 6 has Bengals 13th, Titans 14th, Giants 15th

Round 7 has Bengals 20th, Titans 13th, Giants 14th


What that means is this...

If 7 teams wind up tied at 4 and 12, which could happen, and we pick 2nd in round 1, we would drop back to 8th in round 2, 7th in round 3, and so on.

hmmm...that would suck...but figures, we're the Chiefs

Coogs
12-27-2007, 10:51 AM
Looks like we need Oakland and Baltimore to win as well. I can't believe there are as many teams as us that suck so bad. I sure would like to have the 2nd pick in each round, instead of having to alternate.

:thumb:

cdcox
12-27-2007, 10:56 AM
Looks like we need Oakland and Baltimore to win as well. I can't believe there are as many teams as us that suck so bad. I sure would like to have the 2nd pick in each round, instead of having to alternate.


What is ironic is that having Oakland win to move out of the 4-12 tie would help in that regard, but hurt us in the SOS tiebreaker with St. Louis and Atlanta.

BigChiefFan
12-27-2007, 11:00 AM
It looks like Oakland plays the Chargers and the Ravens play the Steelers. Week 17 has given me something to look forward to for a change.

BigChiefFan
12-27-2007, 11:02 AM
What is ironic is that having Oakland win to move out of the 4-12 tie would help in that regard, but hurt us in the SOS tiebreaker with St. Louis and Atlanta.I think I prefer to pick ahead of Oakland in each round over the Lou and Atl. It looks like we will be picking around 4 or 5.

el borracho
12-27-2007, 11:04 AM
Hey, guys. Let's don't get carried away, here. The fact is that there remain some serious obstacles standing between us and our goal.

We still have to lose to the Jets and that isn't easy.

FAX
What are you talking about, Mr. FAX? Herman Effing Edwards himself spent 5 years stockpiling that team with talent using his superior drafts. How do you think they got the 3 wins, anyway?

RedThat
12-27-2007, 12:27 PM
hmmm...that would suck...but figures, we're the Chiefs

you and I know good things don't happen to the Chiefs...lol

RedThat
12-27-2007, 12:28 PM
What is ironic is that having Oakland win to move out of the 4-12 tie would help in that regard, but hurt us in the SOS tiebreaker with St. Louis and Atlanta.

good things don't happen to the Chiefs.

RedThat
12-27-2007, 12:29 PM
And you know what sucks? Oak plays SD this week. I checkmark that as a loss.

StcChief
12-27-2007, 12:33 PM
Lambs have been playing better....but the Desert DeadBirds could go 8-8 with a W against Lambs.

This one is our only real shot at moving up along with a Jets W.

Mr. Laz
12-27-2007, 12:35 PM
The number 2 pick.... I'm just trying to wrap my mind around how long the holdout will be when Carl tries to lowball the guy and calls his agent a cocksucker. :banghead:
we don't have to worry about that because Carl Peterson will no longer be our GM. :harumph:

RedThat
12-27-2007, 12:36 PM
we don't have to worry about that because Carl Peterson will no longer be our GM. :harumph:

I bet he will still be the GM

Mr. Laz
12-27-2007, 12:40 PM
I bet he will still be the GM

RedBull aka Mr. Grinch


:deevee: :deevee:

RedThat
12-27-2007, 12:46 PM
RedBull aka Mr. Grinch


:deevee: :deevee:

:grouphug: Im sorry Laz. you know the Chiefs hardly fire anybody? I mean his job is secure, and it makes a ton of sense since he hasn't won anything?

cdcox
12-27-2007, 12:57 PM
Here is your rooting guide for the weekend. So we pick between 2nd and 8th. In general, the more of these things that happen, the better our pick. Some of these games only matter if certain other things happen. But this gives you an idea:

Most important:
Jets over KC

Next level:
Oak over SD
Mia over Cin
Atl over Seattle
St L over Ariz
SF over Cle
Balt over Pitt

Smallest effect, depending on out come of other games:
Min over Denver
NO over Chi
GB over Det
Dal over Was

Frazod
12-27-2007, 01:02 PM
And you know what sucks? Oak plays SD this week. I checkmark that as a loss.

Hey, we beat those overrated turds at home. If we can beat them, so can Oakland.

Mr. Laz
12-27-2007, 01:16 PM
Here is your rooting guide for the weekend. So we pick between 2nd and 8th. In general, the more of these things that happen, the better our pick. Some of these games only matter if certain other things happen. But this gives you an idea:

Most important:
Jets over KC

Next level:
Oak over SD
Mia over Cin
Atl over Seattle
St L over Ariz
SF over Cle
Balt over Pitt

Smallest effect, depending on out come of other games:
Min over Denver
NO over Chi
GB over Det
Dal over Was

still don't see how anyone else's SOS can drop lower than ours ...... we are playing the 3-12 N.Y. Jets for chrissakes.

The only way our SOS could drop lower would be if we were actually playing ourselves.

alpha_omega
12-27-2007, 01:17 PM
Instead of playoff scenarios, here are the Week 17 scenarios required to get the Chiefs the #2 pick overall...



Wow!!!, we sure have fallen a long way since 13-3 in '03.

el borracho
12-27-2007, 01:17 PM
Here is your rooting guide for the weekend. So we pick between 2nd and 8th. In general, the more of these things that happen, the better our pick. Some of these games only matter if certain other things happen. But this gives you an idea:

Most important:
Jets over KC

Next level:
Oak over SD
Mia over Cin
Atl over Seattle
St L over Ariz
SF over Cle
Balt over Pitt

Smallest effect, depending on out come of other games:
Min over Denver
NO over Chi
GB over Det
Dal over Was
I've bolded the ones that seem most likely to happen- the rest is just pipe dreams.

Mr. Laz
12-27-2007, 01:19 PM
I've bolded the ones that seem most likely to happen- the rest is just pipe dreams.
well THANKS, Mr. Negative.



geesh, Chiefs fans can't even dream of LOSING without someone coming around and pissing in their cheerios.

el borracho
12-27-2007, 01:28 PM
well THANKS, Mr. Negative.



geesh, Chiefs fans can't even dream of LOSING without someone coming around and pissing in their cheerios.
ROFL
Still, you can't say you disagree much with the predictions, can you?

In any case, I don't much care. It might even be better for us if do end up tied with multiple teams. I think I would rather pick 6th or 8th in the 1st round and 3rd or 4th in the 2nd round this year than the other way around. This draft is thick with talent but lacking in superstars. Let someone else overpay Long and Clady.

Coogs
12-27-2007, 01:36 PM
ROFL
Still, you can't say you disagree much with the predictions, can you?

In any case, I don't much care. It might even be better for us if do end up tied with multiple teams. I think I would rather pick 6th or 8th in the 1st round and 3rd or 4th in the 2nd round this year than the other way around. This draft is thick with talent but lacking in superstars. Let someone else overpay Long and Clady.


You move up 1 spot per round in a tie scenario. If we pick 6th in 1st, it will be 5th in the 2nd, 4th in the 3rd and so on until we reach the top of the tie... then back to the bottom of that group in the following round.

Frankie
12-27-2007, 01:37 PM
Here is your rooting guide for the weekend. So we pick between 2nd and 8th. In general, the more of these things that happen, the better our pick. Some of these games only matter if certain other things happen. But this gives you an idea:

Most important:
Jets over KC

Next level:
Oak over SD
Mia over Cin
Atl over Seattle
St L over Ariz
SF over Cle
Balt over Pitt

Smallest effect, depending on out come of other games:
Min over Denver
NO over Chi
GB over Det
Dal over Was
Miami's result won't make a bit of diff. They have the first pick wrapped up. You should take it out of the list.

Coogs
12-27-2007, 01:39 PM
Miami's result won't make a bit of diff. They have the first pick wrapped up. You should take it out of the list.

It plays into our strength of schedule. We played the Bengals. Another win for them ups our percentage.

RedThat
12-27-2007, 01:47 PM
I've bolded the ones that seem most likely to happen- the rest is just pipe dreams.

I think STL is a good chance to win? There playing pretty decent lately and are playing the Cards who aren't the greatest football team.

ATL faaaaget about it! they can't even beat a dead fly.

The RAID? Eh..I don't know?

I really think Baltimore could win. they usually play Pittsburgh tough.

I think Miami could pull that one off? At home against the Bungs? that's possible.

*Watch us win against the Jets. I have a feeling that is going to happen and then none of this will matter. I think regardless, #2 pick is a long shot. would love for it to happen, but Im not gonna hold my breath.

Coogs
12-27-2007, 01:47 PM
We played Jax and Houston too, but they play each other. So that game will put 1 game in our win column and 1 in our loss column no matter.... outside of the tie scenario that almost never happens.

el borracho
12-27-2007, 01:51 PM
You move up 1 spot per round in a tie scenario. If we pick 6th in 1st, it will be 5th in the 2nd, 4th in the 3rd and so on until we reach the top of the tie... then back to the bottom of that group in the following round.
Ok, then (assuming we end up tied with multiple teams) I will hope that we pick 2nd in the rotation in the 1st round and 1st in the rotation in the 2nd round.

Coogs
12-27-2007, 01:53 PM
Ok, then (assuming we end up tied with multiple teams) I will hope that we pick 2nd in the rotation in the 1st round and 1st in the rotation in the 2nd round.


That would be OK with me as well if we are standing pat. If the trade down senario is in place, higher in the first would be better. But for right now, I like your scenario better.

Oher in the 1st
Robinson in the 2nd. Not sure he will last too long in the 2nd... if he gets to the 2nd.

O-line upgraded bigtime.

BigChiefFan
12-27-2007, 01:59 PM
I just hope we get to pick between the Long boys, Dorsey, McFadden, or Ellis and I hope they translate to superstar at the next level. I'm just not sold on this class as being superstars. McFadden is the only one that I would say has a great shot at becoming a superstar. Ellis kind of reminds me of Warren Sapp, Dorsey looks like he could become very good, the rest have some question marks that concern me for top 5 players.

BigChiefFan
12-27-2007, 02:01 PM
That would be OK with me as well if we are standing pat. If the trade down senario is in place, higher in the first would be better. But for right now, I like your scenario better.

Oher in the 1st
Robinson in the 2nd. Not sure he will last too long in the 2nd... if he gets to the 2nd.

O-line upgraded bigtime.Coogs, I like O-lineman, but I think our best bet is to solidify the D-line early, because after the 2nd round, it really becomes a very weak class. O-line, on the other hand is deeper.

Coogs
12-27-2007, 02:03 PM
Coogs, I like O-lineman, but I think our best bet is to solidify the D-line early, because after the 2nd round, it really becomes a very weak class. O-line, on the other hand is deeper.

We spent a 2nd and a 3rd there last season. Time for Gun to earn his keep and make some players out of all this talent he keeps getting. Time for some chicken salad. All of the ingrediants... especially 2nd and 3rd rounders can't be chicken ****.

BigChiefFan
12-27-2007, 02:10 PM
We spent a 2nd and a 3rd there last season. Time for Gun to earn his keep and make some players out of all this talent he keeps getting. Time for some chicken salad. All of the ingrediants... especially 2nd and 3rd rounders can't be chicken ****.They still look like squat (slight exaggeration on my part) and Edwards, Boone, and Reed aren't getting any younger. I also believe Wilkerson is possibly a FA this year. I'd feel alot better if we addressed the O-line and D-line this year. Outside of Dorsey, Ellis, and Okam, they aren't many DTs that impress me this year. They'll be some rookie surprises in later rounds, but I'd prefer to solidify the position, while we still have a fairly young DE corp.

RedThat
12-27-2007, 02:12 PM
The more I think about it?

Does it really matter where the Chiefs pick?

I think you just have to draft well regardless where you pick?

the only real reason I would want the number 2 pick is because it gives us an option to trade down and we could get more value in return. I wouldn't be opposed to that since you can stockpile draft picks. Makes sense to do that for a team that has a ton of holes everywhere. I think thats what the Chiefs should do? Just bring in a ton of young players scout them and evaluate them to heart. And release a lot of these old guys.

Given the state of their current roster, and where they are, that would be an ideal choice. I wouldn't want a reach in the top 5. If you're going to rebuild your team you can't just think one player, you need sets of good draft picks, and you have to have that ability to score on those draft picks.

Don't get me wrong, I'd like an offensive lineman, but I think you have to go with BPA. It's the most significant and best way towards building a team. We can all say the O-line was bad? but then what about the DT's? What about the WR next to Bowe? what about the QB position? Our CB's are getting old? Our safeties are inconsistent...Donnie Edwards is old. Napolean Harris doesn't turn heads? Tony G is getting up there.

This whole team sucks from management down and has a ton of question marks. You gotta go BPA and get a ton of draft picks it may only help the Chiefs in the long run.

FAX
12-27-2007, 06:20 PM
The SOS can still swing a great deal. Every game played this week affects one of those teams SOS. For instance we want Denver, Oakland, SD, GB, Minn, Chi, Det, Cin, Indy, Jax, Hou and Tenn to lose (actually, this is not possible since there some of those teams play each other).

Mr. cdcox, can we please titty graph this data?

I think this would make a darn good titty graph.

FAX

BigChiefFan
12-27-2007, 06:21 PM
The more I think about it?

Does it really matter where the Chiefs pick?

I think you just have to draft well regardless where you pick?

the only real reason I would want the number 2 pick is because it gives us an option to trade down and we could get more value in return. I wouldn't be opposed to that since you can stockpile draft picks. Makes sense to do that for a team that has a ton of holes everywhere. I think thats what the Chiefs should do? Just bring in a ton of young players scout them and evaluate them to heart. And release a lot of these old guys.

Given the state of their current roster, and where they are, that would be an ideal choice. I wouldn't want a reach in the top 5. If you're going to rebuild your team you can't just think one player, you need sets of good draft picks, and you have to have that ability to score on those draft picks.

Don't get me wrong, I'd like an offensive lineman, but I think you have to go with BPA. It's the most significant and best way towards building a team. We can all say the O-line was bad? but then what about the DT's? What about the WR next to Bowe? what about the QB position? Our CB's are getting old? Our safeties are inconsistent...Donnie Edwards is old. Napolean Harris doesn't turn heads? Tony G is getting up there.

This whole team sucks from management down and has a ton of question marks. You gotta go BPA and get a ton of draft picks it may only help the Chiefs in the long run.

I think it's a given that you have to draft well. That's why if the top guys are there, we better not reach and draft some dude from left field.

By now, I think most would agree that the Long Boys, Dorsey, McFadden, and Ellis are the top players. The Chiefs taken anybody else but those guys at number 5 and I'll know not to even tune into the games for the first time in decades.

bowener
12-27-2007, 07:22 PM
Do you think if we drafted Mcfadden we could pull a San Diego and trade him later in the first round like they did with the whole Eli Manning thing?

blueballs
12-27-2007, 07:25 PM
He would fall off the stage
and break a knee cap with the Chiefs' luck

MahiMike
12-27-2007, 07:31 PM
Where will we be drafting in 2009 then? :)

ahh, yes. The ultimate plan that Herm will unveil in 2012. Those 3 top 5 picks were part of the "rebuilding" plan.

ChiefsCountry
12-27-2007, 07:43 PM
ahh, yes. The ultimate plan that Herm will unveil in 2012. Those 3 top 5 picks were part of the "rebuilding" plan.

It helped Marty and Carl look like geniuses back in the 90's.

acesn8s
12-27-2007, 09:39 PM
Do you think if we drafted Mcfadden we could pull a San Diego and trade him later in the first round like they did with the whole Eli Manning thing?Carl would draft McFadden and trade LJ. McFadden would then have an emotional breakdown after seeing the O-line that would be blocking for him. McFadden never carries another football in his life.

Toad
12-27-2007, 10:01 PM
still don't see how anyone else's SOS can drop lower than ours ...... we are playing the 3-12 N.Y. Jets for chrissakes.

The only way our SOS could drop lower would be if we were actually playing ourselves.

Right. If we lose, we do not drop any lower than 4th.

If either StL or Atl win, we move ahead of them. If both lose, we are 2nd.

cdcox
12-28-2007, 01:21 AM
Right. If we lose, we do not drop any lower than 4th.

If either StL or Atl win, we move ahead of them. If both lose, we are 2nd.

No, that's not right. The SOS tiebreaker comes into play. Even if we lose and StL and Atl win, we could pick as late as 5th, depending on the outcomes of the other games which will determine the final strength of schedule.

Guru
12-28-2007, 01:24 AM
Here is a bright idea. Wait until Sunday night and we will know for certain.

cdcox
12-28-2007, 01:25 AM
Here is a bright idea. Wait until Sunday night and we will know for certain.

Don't click on the tread of you're not interested. A lot of us are.

Mr. Flopnuts
12-28-2007, 01:32 AM
Don't click on the tread of you're not interested. A lot of us are.

Speaking of which. I'm not sure if it's been posted before or not, but can your program give us a prediction on where we'll end up picking based on winning AND losing this game? What's the lowest we could go if we won the game?

acesn8s
12-28-2007, 01:34 AM
http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

NFL Tiebreaking Procedures

(March 20, 2002) -- With the NFL realigning into eight four-team divisions (http://www.nfl.com/standings/divisionrealignment) to accommodate the arrival of the Houston Texans, the league adopted new tiebreaking rules.Common opponents will now be the third tiebreaker within a division after head-to-head games and division record because each of the four teams will have 14 common games in the 16-game schedule. The owners also moved the strength-of-victory tiebreaker ahead of the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker.The six postseason participants from each conference will now be seeded as follows:1. The division champion with the best record.2. The division champion with the second-best record.3. The division champion with the third-best record.4. The division champion with the fourth-best record.5. The Wild Card club with the best record.6. The Wild Card club with the second-best record.The following procedures will be used to break standings ties for postseason playoffs and to determine regular-season schedules.NOTE: Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs. TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.Two Clubs1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.5. Strength of victory.6. Strength of schedule.7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.9. Best net points in common games.10. Best net points in all games.11. Best net touchdowns in all games.Three or More Clubs(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.5. Strength of victory.6. Strength of schedule.7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.9. Best net points in common games.10. Best net points in all games.11. Best net touchdowns in all games.TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps. Two Clubs1. Head-to-head, if applicable.2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.4. Strength of victory.5. Strength of schedule.6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.8. Best net points in conference games.9. Best net points in all games.10. Best net touchdowns in all games.11. Coin toss. Three or More Clubs(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.5. Strength of victory.6. Strength of schedule.7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.9. Best net points in conference games.10. Best net points in all games.11. Best net touchdowns in all games.12. Coin tossWhen the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES

1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild-Card tie breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to step one of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tie breaker, all other clubs revert to step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.2. In comparing division and conference records or records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor since teams may have played an unequal number of games.3. To determine home-field priority among division titlists, apply Wild-Card tie breakers.4. To determine home-field priority for Wild-Card qualifiers, apply division tie breakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild-Card tie breakers (if teams are from different ivisions).TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING

If two or more clubs are tied in the selection order, the strength-of-schedule tie breaker is applied, subject to the following exceptions for playoff clubs:1. The Super Bowl winner is last and the Super Bowl loser next-to-last.2. Any non-Super Bowl playoff club involved in a tie shall be assigned priority within its segment below that of non-playoff clubs and in the order that the playoff clubs exited from the playoffs. Thus, within a tied segment a playoff club that loses in the Wild-Card game will have priority over a playoff club that loses in the Divisional playoff game, which in turn will have priority over a club that loses in the Conference Championship game. If two tied clubs exited the playoffs in the same round, the tie is broken by strength of schedule.If any ties cannot be broken by strength of schedule, the divisional or conference tie breakers, whichever are applicable, are applied. Any ties that still exist are broken by a coin flip.

acesn8s
12-28-2007, 01:36 AM
As I understand it these are used in determining draft positions also. Although I may be wrong.

cdcox
12-28-2007, 01:46 AM
Speaking of which. I'm not sure if it's been posted before or not, but can your program give us a prediction on where we'll end up picking based on winning AND losing this game? What's the lowest we could go if we won the game?

If we beat the jets:

cdcox
12-28-2007, 01:48 AM
And if we lose to the jets:

Mr. Flopnuts
12-28-2007, 01:53 AM
If we beat the jets:


Even if 8th is the lowest we can go, it's just gross to me to think that we could pick behind Baltimore and San Francisco, both of whom I think are in better shape than we are.

Mr. Flopnuts
12-28-2007, 01:57 AM
Last year, for us to make the playoffs we needed a miracle, and got it. This year we need the same miracle to get the number 2 pick in the draft. To be continued.........




Really almost has a "playoff" feel to it........I just puked a little in my mouth. :Lin:

BigRock
12-28-2007, 02:05 AM
And if we lose to the jets:
What makes picking #4 so much higher in that projection than picking #5? If I understand it right (which is hardly a sure thing), to make sure we pick ahead of the Raiders... assuming they also lose on Sunday... we'd need Miami to beat Cinci to keep our SOS lower than Oakland's.

The odds of Miami winning just seem so low that I'd think picking 5th would be more likely. Is there another SOS game that would help us pick before Oakland even if Miami loses?

cdcox
12-28-2007, 02:05 AM
Last year, for us to make the playoffs we needed a miracle, and got it. This year we need the same miracle to get the number 2 pick in the draft. To be continued.........




Really almost has a "playoff" feel to it........I just puked a little in my mouth. :Lin:

Yeah, if anything it is more complicated than last year. I'm going to run a thread on Sunday with instantly updated draft odds based on the current status of the games. Should be interesting.

cdcox
12-28-2007, 02:10 AM
What makes picking #4 so much higher in that projection than picking #5? If I understand it right (which is hardly a sure thing), to make sure we pick ahead of the Raiders... assuming they also lose on Sunday... we'd need Miami to beat Cinci to keep our SOS lower than Oakland's.

The odds of Miami winning just seem so low that I'd think picking 5th would be more likely. Is there another SOS game that would help us pick before Oakland even if Miami loses?

There are lots of ways for us to pick 4th. In addition to the way that you mentioned, Oakland could win out right. Or St. Louis or Atlanta could win and we could get SOS help against those teams. So all those things working together give us a good chance at the 4 slot.

Guru
12-28-2007, 02:14 AM
Don't click on the tread of you're not interested. A lot of us are.
Don't mean to step on your toes at all. The numbers you are able to crunch are amazing to me. It is just that everyone is sooo worked up about figuring this out when nothing can truly be worked out until the completion of all of Sundays games.

mylittlepony
12-28-2007, 02:36 AM
What makes picking #4 so much higher in that projection than picking #5? If I understand it right (which is hardly a sure thing), to make sure we pick ahead of the Raiders... assuming they also lose on Sunday... we'd need Miami to beat Cinci to keep our SOS lower than Oakland's.

The odds of Miami winning just seem so low that I'd think picking 5th would be more likely. Is there another SOS game that would help us pick before Oakland even if Miami loses?

Yes its the Browns - 49ers game and we need the Browns to win. But if they do the 49ers might get a weaker schedule.

FAX
12-28-2007, 02:44 AM
Yeah, if anything it is more complicated than last year. I'm going to run a thread on Sunday with instantly updated draft odds based on the current status of the games. Should be interesting.

I don't know if anyone's taken the time to mention it lately, Mr. cdcox, but I think I speak for all of us when I say that your understanding and application of NFL-related data is nothing short of amazing. Frankly, the information and forecasts you can generate are both remarkable and fascinating.

Just wanted to get that off my chest.

FAX

Guru
12-28-2007, 02:56 AM
I don't know if anyone's taken the time to mention it lately, Mr. cdcox, but I think I speak for all of us when I say that your understanding and application of NFL-related data is nothing short of amazing. Frankly, the information and forecasts you can generate are both remarkable and fascinating.

Just wanted to get that off my chest.

FAX

Statisticians is where its at!!!!

Mr. Laz
12-28-2007, 08:37 AM
I'm going to run a thread on Sunday with instantly updated draft odds based on the current status of the games. Should be interesting.
NERD!!!!!!!!!!!!!11






:p

BigMeatballDave
12-28-2007, 09:13 AM
I'm going to run a thread on Sunday with instantly updated draft odds based on the current status of the games. Should be interesting.

<object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/ntzCi1lu2ys&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/ntzCi1lu2ys&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>

Frankie
12-28-2007, 09:16 AM
Thanks. Now do the same for us getting the 3rd pick.
This was not a joke. I'm just too lazy to try to figure this out. #rd pick is probably more realistic than 2nd but way better than 4th (judging by the value chart). So someone please work this out. Don't keep me in suspenders.

cdcox
12-28-2007, 10:12 AM
NERD!!!!!!!!!!!!!11






:p


You're just now figuring this out?

Frankie
12-28-2007, 10:25 AM
It plays into our strength of schedule. We played the Bengals. Another win for them ups our percentage.
I stand corrected. My apologies.

cdcox
12-28-2007, 10:30 AM
This was not a joke. I'm just too lazy to try to figure this out. #rd pick is probably more realistic than 2nd but way better than 4th (judging by the value chart). So someone please work this out. Don't keep me in suspenders.

The thread starter did not elaborate the details in terms of what it takes to get the second overall pick. If you really want to know, here is about the simplest way to look at getting one of the top 5 picks.

let x = 0 for picking 5th
let x = 1 for picking 4th
let x = 2 for picking 3rd
let x = 3 for picking 2nd

Must happen

Chiefs lose to Jets

AND x of the following 3 must happen

1. Atlanta beats Seattle

2. St. Louis beats Arizona

3a. Oakland loses to SD OR 3b. Miami beats San Diego

AND some other games (or even coinflips) go our way that depend on x and which of the 3 above occur

blueballs
12-28-2007, 10:31 AM
So by moving the game from 7:15 pm to 3:15pm
it's the reverse of last years back into the playoffs
the night game wouldn't have the other games
out come drama for a higher draft pick - Brilliant Carl move

cdcox
12-28-2007, 04:04 PM
For the Chiefs to get the #2 overall pick (<1%)... Rams must beat the Cardinals Falcons must beat the Seahawks Chiefs lose to the JetsThe remaining 4-11 teams, even if they win, won't overtake the Chiefs spot because of opp. winning percentage. The Chiefs also have the worst opp. winning percentage of the 4-11 teams, which would break any other ties. For the Chiefs to get the #3 overall pick (7%)... Rams OR Falcons need to win Chiefs lose to the JetsFor the Chiefs to get the #4 overall pick (30%)... Chiefs lose to the Jets Rams and Falcons loseFor the Chiefs to get the #5 overall pick (15%)... Rams and Falcons need to lose Chiefs beat the Jets Raiders, Ravens and 49ers need to winFor the Chiefs to get the #6 overall pick (4%)... Rams and Falcons need to lose Chiefs beat the Jets Raiders and Ravens need to win 49ers need to loseFor the Chiefs to get the #7 overall pick (19%)... Chiefs beat the Jets Rams, Falcons, Raiders and Ravens need to lose 49ers need to winFor the Chiefs to get the #8 overall pick (25%)... http://www.arrowheadpride.com/


This post contains inaccurate information.

OnTheWarpath58
12-28-2007, 04:11 PM
This post contains inaccurate information.

What is so hard about SOS for people to understand?

We want as many of our 2007 opponents to lose as possible.

We want as many of the other 4-12 teams opponents to win as possible.

To say that another team can't end up with a worse SOS than us is factually incorrect.

That's why they play the games.

cdcox
12-28-2007, 04:19 PM
care to elaborate?

Here's are a couple of examples:

"For the Chiefs to get the #3 overall pick (7%)...

* Rams OR Falcons need to win
* Chiefs lose to the Jets"


"For the Chiefs to get the #4 overall pick (30%)...

* Chiefs lose to the Jets
* Rams and Falcons lose"

If these scenarios play out, there is less than a 60% chance of getting the stated pick.

For the 3rd round pick, the conditions stated are necessary, but not sufficient.

For the 4th round pick the conditions are neither necessary nor sufficient.

cdcox
12-28-2007, 04:26 PM
What is so hard about SOS for people to understand?

We want as many of our 2007 opponents to lose as possible.

We want as many of the other 4-12 teams opponents to win as possible.

To say that another team can't end up with a worse SOS than us is factually incorrect.

That's why they play the games.

There are 2^16 = 65,536 different ways this season can end. People who try to do it manually end up considering may be a dozen different endings.

Toad
12-28-2007, 05:11 PM
No, that's not right. The SOS tiebreaker comes into play. Even if we lose and StL and Atl win, we could pick as late as 5th, depending on the outcomes of the other games which will determine the final strength of schedule.

CD, I get what you're saying about outcomes of other games. I just find it hard to believe we would drop any lower than 4th.

Again, assuming all these teams lose, the year end win/loss record and opponents current wins for all 7 teams with 4 losses or less:

1. Miami (1-15) = #1 selection locked
2. Stl (3-13) = opponents have 123 wins
3. Atlanta (3-13) = 127 wins by opponents
4. KC (4-12) = 122 wins by opponents
5. Jets (4-12) = 126 wins by opponents
6. Oak (4-12) = 123 wins by opponents
7. Balt (4-12)= 124 wins by opponents

OnTheWarpath58
12-28-2007, 05:17 PM
CD, I get what you're saying about outcomes of other games. I just find it hard to believe we would drop any lower than 4th.

Again, assuming all these teams lose, the year end win/loss record and opponents current wins for all 7 teams with 4 losses or less:

1. Miami (1-15) = #1 selection locked
2. Stl (3-13) = opponents have 123 wins
3. Atlanta (3-13) = 127 wins by opponents
4. KC (4-12) = 122 wins by opponents
5. Jets (4-12) = 126 wins by opponents
6. Oak (4-12) = 123 wins by opponents
7. Balt (4-12)= 124 wins by opponents

It's easier than you think.

For example, a couple of weeks ago, Atlanta's SOS jumped due to 11 or 12 of their opponents winning that week.

That same week, Baltimore's, dropped significantly because 9-10 of their opponents lost.

Plus, without looking, I'd bet that both Oakland and Baltimore hold the tiebreakers over us. I know Baltimore does....they are something like 1-10 in AFC play.

Toad
12-28-2007, 05:24 PM
It's easier than you think.

For example, a couple of weeks ago, Atlanta's SOS jumped due to 11 or 12 of their opponents winning that week.

That same week, Baltimore's, dropped significantly because 9-10 of their opponents lost.

Plus, without looking, I'd bet that both Oakland and Baltimore hold the tiebreakers over us. I know Baltimore does....they are something like 1-10 in AFC play.

Mmmokay. I stand corrected. Thanks.

cdcox
12-28-2007, 05:42 PM
CD, I get what you're saying about outcomes of other games. I just find it hard to believe we would drop any lower than 4th.

Again, assuming all these teams lose, the year end win/loss record and opponents current wins for all 7 teams with 4 losses or less:

1. Miami (1-15) = #1 selection locked
2. Stl (3-13) = opponents have 123 wins
3. Atlanta (3-13) = 127 wins by opponents
4. KC (4-12) = 122 wins by opponents
5. Jets (4-12) = 126 wins by opponents
6. Oak (4-12) = 123 wins by opponents
7. Balt (4-12)= 124 wins by opponents

Your original statement was:

"Right. If we lose, we do not drop any lower than 4th.

If either StL or Atl win, we move ahead of them. If both lose, we are 2nd."

Those are not correct statments by a long shot. For instance the statement "If we lose, we do not drop any lower than 4th" would be false under the very likely scenario of:

KC loses to Jets (given)
StL loses to Arizona
Atl loses to Seatte
Oak loses to SD
Miami loses to Cinn.

We'd draft 5th or later in this case.

Your second statement of "If either StL or Atl win, we move ahead of them. If both lose, we are 2nd." Is false under this very likely scenario:

KC loses to Jets (given)
StL beats Arizona (given)
Atl beats Seatte (given)
Oak loses to SD
Miami loses to Cinn.

We'd draft 3rd or later in this case.

I would have no problem with a statement like: "If we lose, there is a good chance we will draft 4th or earlier". But your statement didn't include any such qualifiers. I am assuming people who are interested in where we will draft desire accurate information rather than somebodies best guess.

Coogs
12-28-2007, 07:05 PM
KC loses to Jets (given)
StL loses to Arizona
Atl loses to Seatte
Oak loses to SD
Miami loses to Cinn.

We'd draft 5th or later in this case.



OUCH!

Halfcan
12-28-2007, 07:18 PM
If we get a top 5-we will just trade down for more 5th rounders.

Toad
12-28-2007, 08:40 PM
Your original statement was:

"Right. If we lose, we do not drop any lower than 4th.

If either StL or Atl win, we move ahead of them. If both lose, we are 2nd."

Those are not correct statments by a long shot. For instance the statement "If we lose, we do not drop any lower than 4th" would be false under the very likely scenario of:

KC loses to Jets (given)
StL loses to Arizona
Atl loses to Seatte
Oak loses to SD
Miami loses to Cinn.

We'd draft 5th or later in this case.

Your second statement of "If either StL or Atl win, we move ahead of them. If both lose, we are 2nd." Is false under this very likely scenario:

KC loses to Jets (given)
StL beats Arizona (given)
Atl beats Seatte (given)
Oak loses to SD
Miami loses to Cinn.

We'd draft 3rd or later in this case.

I would have no problem with a statement like: "If we lose, there is a good chance we will draft 4th or earlier". But your statement didn't include any such qualifiers. I am assuming people who are interested in where we will draft desire accurate information rather than somebodies best guess.

Thus, my "I stand corrected" statement. Sheeeesh...

cdcox
12-28-2007, 08:46 PM
Thus, my "I stand corrected" statement. Sheeeesh...

Your reply to OTWP58 came while I was writing my reply.

JohninGpt
12-28-2007, 08:48 PM
If we get a top 5-we will just trade down for more 5th rounders.
If we play our cards right we can have all 32 of them.

Short Leash Hootie
12-29-2007, 12:18 AM
last year it was "impossible" for us to make the playoffs...this year it is "impossible" for us to draft 2nd...

Hmm

cmh6476
12-30-2007, 10:40 AM
also I didnt realize teams rotated around with similar teams with that same won/ loss record each round :shrug:

wazu
12-30-2007, 11:20 AM
Freaking Falcons are already screwing things up.

:cuss:

Mr. Laz
12-30-2007, 11:23 AM
also I didnt realize teams rotated around with similar teams with that same won/ loss record each round :shrug:
i think they just started that 3 years ago


sadly they started it the very year that they chiefs were tied and got screwed out of a higher 2nd round pick iirc.

wazu
12-30-2007, 11:35 AM
San Fran just gave up a special teams TD. I hope the Chiefs are taking notes.

OnTheWarpath58
12-30-2007, 12:00 PM
Atlanta keeping it close....

10-7 Seahags.

chiefbowe82
12-30-2007, 12:10 PM
seahawks have it 3rd and 40..sounds like they're in a chief situation

Bowser
12-30-2007, 12:11 PM
seahawks have it 3rd and 40..sounds like they're in a chief situation

I'm guessing a draw play. lol

chiefbowe82
12-30-2007, 12:13 PM
Falcons ball on seahawks 32-First and 10

chiefbowe82
12-30-2007, 12:13 PM
Redman to white for 27 yard, falcons in the redzone

chiefbowe82
12-30-2007, 12:14 PM
Dunn TD-14-10 Falcons

Mr. Laz
12-30-2007, 12:15 PM
it's weird ........ i want to see the sucky teams play today. ROFL

OnTheWarpath58
12-30-2007, 12:15 PM
Dunn TD-14-10 Falcons

w00t!

chiefbowe82
12-30-2007, 12:28 PM
Seahawks take the lead 17-14

chiefbowe82
12-30-2007, 12:30 PM
Falcons in the redzone

chiefbowe82
12-30-2007, 12:34 PM
17-17 at the half

wazu
12-30-2007, 12:35 PM
Hopefully the Seahawks rest starters in the 2nd half.

blueballs
12-30-2007, 12:40 PM
Oh

cdcox
12-30-2007, 12:41 PM
Miami intercepts deep in Bungul territory.

cdcox
12-30-2007, 12:46 PM
Beck on his first NFL snap fumbles and Bungles return it for a TD.

acesn8s
12-30-2007, 12:59 PM
What positions need upgraded for the following teams?
Atlanta
Miami
NY Jets
St. Louis
Oakland
Baltimore

Rudy lost the toss
12-30-2007, 01:06 PM
Cinci and Chicago winning sucks. Go Vikings and Colts!....and Falcons

Edit: forget colts

chiefbowe82
12-30-2007, 01:06 PM
20-17 seahawks

cdcox
12-30-2007, 01:09 PM
Cinci and Chicago winning sucks. Go Vikings and Colts!....and Falcons

Yup. If these scores hold up we cannot get the 2nd even if the Falcons come back to win.

chiefbowe82
12-30-2007, 01:14 PM
seahawks 20
falcons 20

chiefbowe82
12-30-2007, 01:15 PM
Yup. If these scores hold up we cannot get the 2nd even if the Falcons come back to win.
so if cincy beats miami we can't get the number 2 pick for some exotic reason?

Quicksix
12-30-2007, 01:20 PM
Cleveland winning has to help us. Oakland beat them earlier in the year

cdcox
12-30-2007, 01:20 PM
so if cincy beats miami we can't get the number 2 pick for some exotic reason?

Cincy beating Miami would be okay if the Raiders lose later today.

The problem is that we can't get in front of St. Louis on SOS with the way the games are going now. The Chicago and SF games are killing us there.

Warrior5
12-30-2007, 01:21 PM
seahawks 20
falcons 20

Go Felons!

cdcox
12-30-2007, 01:22 PM
Cleveland winning has to help us. Oakland beat them earlier in the year

It hurts us against SF and St.L and doesn't really help us against Oakland. It can only get us to a tie on SOS against Oakland, and then Oakland gets the better draft choice because of the division tiebreakers.

cdcox
12-30-2007, 01:23 PM
Miami scored a TD. We could really use a Miami win to get in front of Oakland.

wazu
12-30-2007, 01:24 PM
Cincy beating Miami would be okay if the Raiders lose later today.

The problem is that we can't get in front of St. Louis on SOS with the way the games are going now. The Chicago and SF games are killing us there.

We're screwed, then. I really don't care about picking #2 as much as I want to be ahead of St. Louis. It sounds like St. Louis will take Jake Long. :(

OnTheWarpath58
12-30-2007, 01:25 PM
Cincy beating Miami would be okay if the Raiders lose later today.

The problem is that we can't get in front of St. Louis on SOS with the way the games are going now. The Chicago and SF games are killing us there.

Color me confused.

San Diego and Oakland are playing each other.

No matter who wins, our SOS won't fluctuate. Both teams are division rivals.

EDIT: You must be concerned that Oakland will overtake us on SOS, and are looking for them to get to 5 wins.......




:hmmm:

chiefbowe82
12-30-2007, 01:25 PM
Seahawks 27
Falcons 20

cdcox
12-30-2007, 01:25 PM
We're screwed, then. I really don't care about picking #2 as much as I want to be ahead of St. Louis. It sounds like St. Louis will take Jake Long. :(

Actually, I would be okay with that.

cdcox
12-30-2007, 01:27 PM
Color me confused.

San Diego and Oakland are playing each other.

No matter who wins, our SOS won't fluctuate. Both teams are division rivals.






:hmmm:

Correct, but there is a great chance Oakland will draft in front of us if we tie. An Oakland win would eliminate the tie on record.

OnTheWarpath58
12-30-2007, 01:28 PM
Correct, but there is a great chance Oakland will draft in front of us if we tie. An Oakland win would eliminate the tie on record.

Yeah, I was editing my post as you were replying.

cdcox
12-30-2007, 01:28 PM
Dang, Bungul TD.

cdcox
12-30-2007, 01:29 PM
Yeah, I was editing my post as you were replying.

Yup. If Cinci beats Miami, there is no way we can draft before Oalkand if they lose to SD today.

OnTheWarpath58
12-30-2007, 01:30 PM
Atlanta isn't giving up.

Tied at 27.

wazu
12-30-2007, 01:30 PM
Atlanta just tied it up.

chiefbowe82
12-30-2007, 01:30 PM
Seahawks-27
Falcons-27

OnTheWarpath58
12-30-2007, 01:32 PM
Yup. If Cinci beats Miami, there is no way we can draft before Oalkand if they lose to SD today.

Is Miami where they made up the game they were behind?

They were behind us by one win in SOS going into the week.

chiefbowe82
12-30-2007, 01:33 PM
Atlanta recovers fumble and are in the redzone

cdcox
12-30-2007, 01:33 PM
Is Miami where they made up the game they were behind?

They were behind us by one win in SOS going into the week.

Miami has a lock on #1. They can have at most two wins.

cdcox
12-30-2007, 01:33 PM
Whoo Hooo, Falcons take the lead.

chiefbowe82
12-30-2007, 01:35 PM
Atlanta-34
Seattle-27

cdcox
12-30-2007, 01:37 PM
WALLLA-ception!!!!111!!!

cdcox
12-30-2007, 01:38 PM
Break UP the Falcons!!!! Dynasty!

BigRock
12-30-2007, 01:39 PM
When we win later, multiple "GO FALCONS!" threads can take all the blame.

chiefbowe82
12-30-2007, 01:39 PM
Falcons-41
Seahawks-27

OnTheWarpath58
12-30-2007, 01:40 PM
Miami has a lock on #1. They can have at most two wins.

Sorry.

I was trying to figure out how Oakland was going to make up the game they were behind us in SOS, and figured it out.

We have the same schedule, except they played Cleveland and Miami. Likely 1-1 today.

We played Cincinnati and the Jets. Likely 2-0.

I guess there's an ouside chance that if STL and ATL were to win today, and OAK and KC were to lose:

Oakland could pick 2nd and KC could pick 3rd.

Atlanta is up by 2 scores now. Looking good.

OnTheWarpath58
12-30-2007, 01:48 PM
cdcox:

So, if we **** up and win today, it's almost guaranteed that we'll pick 8th?

I would think both Oakland and Baltimore would have the tiebreakers even if they happen to win as well.

mlyonsd
12-30-2007, 01:52 PM
No way Oakland wins today. They suck.

chiefbowe82
12-30-2007, 01:52 PM
Falcons-41
Seahawks-34

wazu
12-30-2007, 01:52 PM
Ugh, Seahawk TD.

mylittlepony
12-30-2007, 01:53 PM
Both St.Louis and San Frans SOS will go up from Cleveland and Cincy winning.

Rudy lost the toss
12-30-2007, 01:53 PM
Falcons don't want to win

OnTheWarpath58
12-30-2007, 01:54 PM
Both St.Louis and San Frans SOS will go up from Cleveland and Cincy winning.

It will level back out from SF and NO losing.

chiefbowe82
12-30-2007, 02:00 PM
Falcons-44
Seahawks-34

BigRock
12-30-2007, 02:02 PM
When we win later, multiple "GO FALCONS!" threads can take all the blame.
:shake:

We're so screwed.

acesn8s
12-30-2007, 02:02 PM
Does anyone have a link for draft tiebreakers?

When did SOS become more important than head-to-head, division records, conference records, etc.?

mylittlepony
12-30-2007, 02:02 PM
It will level back out from SF and NO losing.

But GB looks like they are winning and then hopefully Dallas can beat Washington.

OnTheWarpath58
12-30-2007, 02:04 PM
But GB looks like they are winning and then hopefully Dallas can beat Washington.

Ask cdcox.

He's doing the math up to the minute. and he said it looks like STL will end up ahead of us, even if they win and we lose.

chiefbowe82
12-30-2007, 02:09 PM
Falcons-44
Seahawks-41

mylittlepony
12-30-2007, 02:10 PM
Yeah the in division games will count double so maby that has something to do with it.

mylittlepony
12-30-2007, 02:15 PM
DAMN were gonna need Denver to win against MIN

wazu
12-30-2007, 02:25 PM
DAMN were gonna need Denver to win against MIN

That would mean adding 2 wins to our SOS. How could that possibly help the Chiefs?

mylittlepony
12-30-2007, 02:29 PM
Yes you are right I was thinking the other way around. MIN needs to win to give us +1 win only. Ouch our SOS is at 131 by my estimations (denver losing) thats bad.