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View Full Version : Iowa Independent: Ron Paul in position for third place


Taco John
12-28-2007, 04:44 PM
Recxjake: "Ron Paul will not finish ahead of Rudy in a single state"

Iowanian: "What you'll find out on caucus night is that Ron Paul has no support in Iowa."



Iowa GOP Caucus Power rankings from the Iowa Independent blog
www.iowaindependent.com

The Republican race in Iowa remains as unpredictable as it was a month ago. Gov. Mike Huckabee surged, waned, and has steadied his position slightly ahead of Gov. Mitt Romney. Former Sen. Fred Thompson, who was expected to move up after his recent swing through the state and his high-profile Iowa endorsements, has failed to gain much steam. Sen. John McCain, who was close to writing Iowa off a month ago, has received newspaper endorsements and renewed attention to coincide with his improving chances nationally.

Today, Iowa Independent releases its final round of power rankings, designed to answer the question, "If the caucuses were held tonight, what would be the results?" The rankings are derived from impressions we received from activists, campaign officials, seasoned political observers, and rank-and-file caucus-goers, but at the most basic level, they are based on the gut feelings and instincts of our writers, who have watched the race unfold here from the beginning.

A lot can change in six days, and we expect that it will. But if the caucuses were held tonight, this is how we think they would turn out:

First Place

Mike Huckabee -- No doubt about it, Huckabee has firmed up the support of social conservatives and his nice guy routine resonates with enough people that he would likely win Iowa if the caucuses were held tonight. He drew 400 people to a rally in Orange City on the Saturday before Christmas and another 200 people in Sheldon the same day. He seems to generate more enthusiasm than any other candidates in the Republican field.

Second Place

Mitt Romney -- It's time to see if Romney's experienced, well-paid staff knows how to close the deal. Romney's poll numbers have rebounded in the state in recent days and the questions his surrogates have raised about Huckabee's years as governor in Arkansas continue to sway small numbers of voters. But it remains to be seen if his strong organization will give him an edge over Huckabee, whose supporters are less organized but perhaps greater in number.

Third Place

Ron Paul -- Rival campaigns are beginning to nervously speculate that Paul will finish in the top three on January 3. Paul broke double digits in at least two polls for the first time this week and he seems particularly strong in areas of the state where the media has less of an impact on political deliberations -- especially in rural northwest and southern Iowa. Check out a Ron Paul supporters' websites and you'll see detailed discussions about caucus rules and strategy. The Paulites are more ready for caucus night than most observers realize.

Fourth Place

John McCain -- Upward Momentum -- Undecided Republicans are breaking toward McCain more than most would have expected, and the additional attention he's receiving in New Hampshire and South Carolina is translating to more coverage in Iowa in the final days of the campaign. While newspaper endorsements may not make much of a difference in the GOP race, the surprising number of Iowa newspapers who have endorsed the Arizona senator have at least made more caucus-goers receptive to his message. And recent news from Pakistan gives him an opportunity to highlight the importance of national security experience.

Fifth Place

Fred Thompson -- We can again report that we're hearing reports that a newly energized Thompson has hit the campaign trail in Iowa. But we've said that so many times in the past six months that we don't necessarily believe it ourselves. Still, with Rep. Steve King and prominent social conservative Bill Salier on the campaign trail for him, it's hard to believe he hasn't gained some traction in the state.

Sixth Place

Rudy Giuliani -- Who would have believed that "America's Mayor" would have so much trouble coalescing support in Iowa? Perhaps Florida will be better for him.

Seventh Place

Duncan Hunter

Donger
12-28-2007, 04:45 PM
"So, you're saying there's a chance."

recxjake
12-28-2007, 04:51 PM
1. Huck
2. Romney
3. Rudy
4. McCain
5. Fred
6. Paul
7. Keyes
8. Hunter

Mark it down.

Iowanian
12-28-2007, 04:53 PM
Ron Paul will be an <Also Ran>

One thing about a caucus...if enough dipshits show up, they can make it look like he has more support than he actually does, in some precincts.

Taco John
12-28-2007, 04:55 PM
Ron Paul will be an <Also Ran>

One thing about a caucus...if enough dipshits show up, they can make it look like he has more support than he actually does, in some precincts.


How does that work? Isn't the measurment of support the votes? Or is there another measurment that you're working from?

Taco John
12-28-2007, 05:03 PM
1. Huck
2. Romney
3. Paul
4. Fred
5. McCain
6. Rudy
7. Hunter

Iowanian
12-28-2007, 05:05 PM
A caucus isn't a "Vote" like a primary election.

In short, people of each party go to a designated location for their precinct, each candidate has a person speak on their behalf. Eventually, they ask people to go to a sign/location for the candidate they support, and the loser's supporters are asked to choose another, or have the option to leave. this process is repeated until there is a victor.

In short, if a horde of Paul supporters overwhelmed a precinct, they could feasibly skew the results of a given precinct. I guess in a way, every Caucus is like that for one candidate or another.

I should probably defer to your overwhelming understanding and personal insight on Iowans though. You CERTAINLY have a glowing and vast knowledge of agriculture and farming communities......

recxjake
12-28-2007, 05:08 PM
A caucus isn't a "Vote" like a primary election.

In short, people of each party go to a designated location for their precinct, each candidate has a person speak on their behalf. Eventually, they ask people to go to a sign/location for the candidate they support, and the loser's supporters are asked to choose another, or have the option to leave. this process is repeated until there is a victor.

In short, if a horde of Paul supporters overwhelmed a precinct, they could feasibly skew the results of a given precinct. I guess in a way, every Caucus is like that for one candidate or another.

I should probably defer to your overwhelming understanding and personal insight on Iowans though. You CERTAINLY have a glowing and vast knowledge of agriculture and farming communities......

Not true... on the Republican side it is a ballot.... you are thinking Democratic side

patteeu
12-28-2007, 05:26 PM
Third place? woot?

Taco John
12-28-2007, 05:27 PM
Third place? woot?



Hell yeah WOOT!

I can only laugh at you for trying to downplay what a huge victory third place would be.

Surely you have a better grip on these things than you're letting on.

patteeu
12-28-2007, 05:30 PM
Hell yeah WOOT!

I can only laugh at you for trying to downplay what a huge victory third place would be.

:)

Taco John
12-28-2007, 05:36 PM
A caucus isn't a "Vote" like a primary election.

In short, people of each party go to a designated location for their precinct, each candidate has a person speak on their behalf. Eventually, they ask people to go to a sign/location for the candidate they support, and the loser's supporters are asked to choose another, or have the option to leave. this process is repeated until there is a victor.

In short, if a horde of Paul supporters overwhelmed a precinct, they could feasibly skew the results of a given precinct. I guess in a way, every Caucus is like that for one candidate or another.

I should probably defer to your overwhelming understanding and personal insight on Iowans though. You CERTAINLY have a glowing and vast knowledge of agriculture and farming communities......



I know what a caucus is. In essence, it's used to publically measure the strength of support that any individual candidate has. The idea that a third place showing is meaningless because it isn't representative of "the general public" is amusing, but hardly useful.

And having grown up in a farming community in Southern Idaho, you're damn straight that I have a glowing and vast knowledge of agriculture and farming communities. I don't hardly imagine there's much difference between rural Iowa and rural southern Idaho. We probably have more mormons.

If it weren't for farming, I have no idea where my family would be today. My family owes our lives to the soil so far as I'm concerned.

jettio
12-28-2007, 09:55 PM
I know what a caucus is. In essence, it's used to publically measure the strength of support that any individual candidate has. The idea that a third place showing is meaningless because it isn't representative of "the general public" is amusing, but hardly useful.

And having grown up in a farming community in Southern Idaho, you're damn straight that I have a glowing and vast knowledge of agriculture and farming communities. I don't hardly imagine there's much difference between rural Iowa and rural southern Idaho. We probably have more mormons.

If it weren't for farming, I have no idea where my family would be today. My family owes our lives to the soil so far as I'm concerned.

One big difference is the folks in Idaho don't now have a gynecologist running around out there threatening to cut off their farm subsidies.