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Mr. Kotter
01-01-2008, 10:35 PM
The Democratic nomination is much less complex, so I'll begin here:

As the original Thompson-pimp here, I still think he has a shot....but it's an outside/darkhorse possibility.

That said, two days from now....we will know the outcome of Iowa. Depending on that, N.H. and S.C. will be the most important to the national picture.

Iowa: Romney and Huckabee will fight it out for 1 and 2...but the real battle is for 3rd. Who will emerge as the "challenger".....the "contender?" It looks to be either McCain or Thompson....so....

New Hampshire: One of Fred's mistakes was writing off NH entirely; he'll pay for it (maybe even finishing behind "moon unit" candidate Paul.) McCain will battle Romney for an inside track to unseat Huckabee for the nomination. I'm convinced Giuliani will flop after Iowa, if he does manage to finish first or second---that will almost guarantee a Republican battle into March, which is something I don't expect. Whoever wins will need impressive follow-up showings in Nevada and South Carolina to stay alive. If McCain wins, Romney could be on life-support---especially going into South Carolina, even if he were to win Nevada.

South Carolina: Fred's last stand. If he can survive Iowa by finishing third, and NOT have Huckabee or Romney take-off in NH....he can become relevant as a legitimate option, by finishing strong in S.C. FTR, the same is true for McCain. If McCain takes NH and....then....does well in SC, he'll become the new 'front-runner.' At that point Fred would likely throw his support behind McCain, which would catapult him to the nomination IMO. Or vice-versa....if Thompson wins SC, then McCain will withdraw and support Fred....which puts him in a good position to defeat Huckabee or Romney for the nomination.

I honestly think, at this point, it will come down to SC. Whoever emerges in the best shape there....will be able to attack Giuliani's "Waterloo" in Florida and beyond....and win the nomination.

JMHO, FTR. :shrug:

irishjayhawk
01-01-2008, 10:44 PM
As long as Huckster doesn't see the light of day, I can live with the other two.

Though, Thompson looks like the Emperor from Star Wars. :P

jAZ
01-01-2008, 10:58 PM
Rudy, Romney and Fred all have lost ground because McCain is making a come back.

Fred's only chance was if McCain dropped out a month or two ago. He didn't and has regained his status as the media darling. Fred had that but sucked so bad that he pissed away his chance early.

Now that McCain is surging, Fred has zero chance at the nomination. I wouldn't be at all suprised to see the GOP establishment (ie, neo-cons, and party hard liners) move to McCain as the best available option after NH.

He's the most electable in the general election, IMO. By a lot.

Cochise
01-01-2008, 11:04 PM
Pretty fluid right now, but I'm still thinking that Romney wins it.

Hard to see Fred getting back into the race. The media is loving on McCain again because he's basically a Democrat. Thompson could have had an angle, with Rudy and McCain sinking and Fred charging ahead, but Huckabee caught the social conservative wave and the media is going to prop McCain up as long as they can as the contrarian candidate.

Ultimately, people won't vote for McCain like they didn't last time, and I see him as more unelectable these days after the immigration debacle.

I'm not thrilled about Romney or Huckabee but I don't think anyone else is in the race really.

Silock
01-01-2008, 11:06 PM
RP has a better shot at the nomination than Thompson. Seriously.

go bowe
01-01-2008, 11:11 PM
what about ron paul?

he could be an option...

well, maby not...

Mr. Kotter
01-01-2008, 11:14 PM
RP has a better shot at the nomination than Thompson. Seriously.

Anyone who honestly thinks that doesn't understand how political parties in this country nominate candidates. I'd bore you with the details, but I haven't the time or desire other than to say.....Jerry Brown. Paul is a Republican version of Jerry Brown IMHO. So, you are just wrong, IMHO.

what about ron paul?

he could be an option...

well, maby not...

Paul has no chance IMHO.

His "best case" scenario is to pull a John Anderson/Ross Perot/Ralph Nader type duplication....which, of course, would hand the election to the democrats.

Which, I think, is part of the allure to many of his supporters in the first place.... :hmmm:

Silock
01-01-2008, 11:20 PM
Oh, I fully understand how they do it, Mr. Kotter. That's why I know that Thompson doesn't stand a chance of getting it, no matter how much you want it to happen personally.

Mr. Kotter
01-01-2008, 11:23 PM
Oh, I fully understand how they do it, Mr. Kotter. That's why I know that Thompson doesn't stand a chance of getting it, no matter how much you want it to happen personally.

I've been saying for 4 weeks or so, Thompson is a darkhorse at best. But he's still in the race. Paul never was; and isn't.

Paul isn't even in the stables. Seriously. You may not like it, but the system has already made that choice before Paul raised his first dollar.

jAZ
01-01-2008, 11:26 PM
I've been saying for 4 weeks or so, Thompson is a darkhorse at best. But he's still in the race. Paul never was; and isn't.

Paul isn't even in the stables. Seriously. You may not like it, but the system has already made that choice before Paul raised his first dollar.
In this race, McCain is the "darkhorse". Thompson is the "deadhorse". One that you, sir, are beating into the ground.

SNR
01-01-2008, 11:26 PM
His "best case" scenario is to pull a John Anderson/Ross Perot/Ralph Nader type duplication....which, of course, would hand the election to the democrats.

Which, I think, is part of the allure to many of his supporters in the first place.... :hmmm:No, what draws most of his supporters to him is that he's not a Republicrat. All of the Republicans and the Democrats are the same candidate. They are all dirty, slimey, filthy, and contemptuous politicians. Paul supporters want a change from THAT.

Remember, the two-party system is just a one-party system in disguise. Either way, you're gonna get a status-quo, same-shit-different-day politician up there in the White House using the same bullshit rhetoric that the guy before him used.

Mr. Kotter
01-01-2008, 11:29 PM
No, what draws most of his supporters to him is that he's not a Republicrat. All of the Republicans and the Democrats are the same candidate. They are all dirty, slimey, filthy, and contemptuous politicians. Paul supporters want a change from THAT.

Remember, the two-party system is just a one-party system in disguise. Either way, you're gonna get a status-quo, same-shit-different-day politician up there in the White House using the same bullshit rhetoric that the guy before him used.

That you and other Paul supporters would say or think that a Hillary Presidency would be the same as a McCain Presidency, or a Obama Presidency would be the same as a Huckabee Presidency....exposes the folly of your position, IMHO.

irishjayhawk
01-01-2008, 11:30 PM
I've been saying for 4 weeks or so, Thompson is a darkhorse at best. But he's still in the race. Paul never was; and isn't.

Paul isn't even in the stables. Seriously. You may not like it, but the system has already made that choice before Paul raised his first dollar.

Remove references to Paul, specifically, and you have outlined a major flaw in our entire system.

Sad really.

Mr. Kotter
01-01-2008, 11:30 PM
In this race, McCain is the "darkhorse". Thompson is the "deadhorse". One that you, sir, are beating into the ground.

Who did YOU support last year, this time? Heh.

:p

Mr. Kotter
01-01-2008, 11:31 PM
Remove references to Paul, specifically, and you have outlined a major flaw in our entire system.

Sad really.

Flaw or not, it is what it is. And until it's changed, it "is" reality.

irishjayhawk
01-01-2008, 11:33 PM
Flaw or not, it is what it is. And until it's changed, it "is" reality.

True. And Kudos for not implying or saying it won't change.

jAZ
01-01-2008, 11:37 PM
Who did YOU support last year, this time? Heh.

:p
My preference to this date remain (in order):

1) Gore
2) Clarke
3) Obama

Only 1 of those ever entered the race, sadly.

jAZ
01-02-2008, 12:01 AM
I've been saying for 4 weeks or so, Thompson is a darkhorse at best. But he's still in the race. Paul never was; and isn't.

Paul isn't even in the stables. Seriously. You may not like it, but the system has already made that choice before Paul raised his first dollar.
Just to get you on record...

How many states will Ron Paul finished ahead of Fred Thompson in? If any, which?

Silock
01-02-2008, 12:39 AM
That you and other Paul supporters would say or think that a Hillary Presidency would be the same as a McCain Presidency, or a Obama Presidency would be the same as a Huckabee Presidency....exposes the folly of your position, IMHO.

It wouldn't be exactly the same. It's just a matter of what you want them to tell you to be scared of -- gays, pro-choicers and muslims or lack of socialized medicine, people not using food stamps to subsidize their already terrible monetary choices and complete lack personal financial responsibility.

It IS the same shit, different day policy. It's just back and forth and back and forth from one extreme to the other. Sad fact is that most Americans are simply moderates and that die-hard Republicans and Democrats are the extreme rarity. Unfortunately, most moderate Americans don't vote. There's your real flaw in the system.

BTW, I never said Paul would win the nomination. It's highly unlikely, and even if he did, I'm sure the Diebold machines would make sure that he didn't. Still has a better chance than Thompson, though.

SoCalBronco
01-02-2008, 02:44 AM
Go Senator McCain!

jAZ
01-02-2008, 07:49 AM
I think it's hysterical that Kotter puts Fred Thompson ahead of Romney and Rudy.

Even Jake isn't pompus enough to eliminate Romney yet.

ROFL

Mr. Kotter
01-02-2008, 08:11 AM
I think it's hysterical that Kotter puts Fred Thompson ahead of Romney and Rudy.

Even Jake isn't pompus enough to eliminate Romney yet.

ROFL

Your need to reread my comments then, because.....that's NOT what I'm saying, at all.

patteeu
01-02-2008, 08:29 AM
I think it's hysterical that Kotter puts Fred Thompson ahead of Romney and Rudy.

Even Jake isn't pompus enough to eliminate Romney yet.

ROFL

I agree with you about Mr. Kotter, but I think jake has eliminated Romney.

patteeu
01-02-2008, 08:33 AM
It wouldn't be exactly the same. It's just a matter of what you want them to tell you to be scared of -- gays, pro-choicers and muslims or lack of socialized medicine, people not using food stamps to subsidize their already terrible monetary choices and complete lack personal financial responsibility.

It IS the same shit, different day policy. It's just back and forth and back and forth from one extreme to the other. Sad fact is that most Americans are simply moderates and that die-hard Republicans and Democrats are the extreme rarity. Unfortunately, most moderate Americans don't vote. There's your real flaw in the system.

BTW, I never said Paul would win the nomination. It's highly unlikely, and even if he did, I'm sure the Diebold machines would make sure that he didn't. Still has a better chance than Thompson, though.

Paul sells fear of pissing off anti-American, anti-Western, anti-modernity rabble in the third world.

patteeu
01-02-2008, 08:34 AM
Your need to reread my comments then, because.....that's NOT what I'm saying, at all.

How can that not be what you're saying "at all" when your thread title is "Republican Nomination: Down to Huckabee-McCain-Thompson"?

jAZ
01-02-2008, 08:40 AM
How can that not be what you're saying "at all" when your thread title is "Republican Nomination: Down to Huckabee-McCain-Thompson"?
Kotter is full of political double-speak.

"If at first, I get it wrong... you just misunderstood me."

Mr. Kotter
01-02-2008, 08:44 AM
How can that not be what you're saying "at all" when your thread title is "Republican Nomination: Down to Huckabee-McCain-Thompson"?

jAZ's words were....putting "ahead" of....in the horse-race "polling" Romney and Giuliani are "ahead."

I'm not addressing the horse-race polling; I'm addressing the issue of who the eventual nominee will be.

patteeu
01-02-2008, 09:02 AM
jAZ's words were....putting "ahead" of....in the horse-race "polling" Romney and Giuliani are "ahead."

I'm not addressing the horse-race polling; I'm addressing the issue of who the eventual nominee will be.

Maybe you are the one who misunderstood jAZ. If you've excluded Romney and Giuliani from the group of candidates capable of winning the nomination, but you include Thompson, McCain, and Huckabee, you're putting Thompson "ahead of" Romney and Giuliani AFAIC. I'm confident that's what jAZ means too.

You know, it pains me to agree with jAZ on anything, but you've forced me to do so this morning. You're off my 2008 Christmas card list. :p

Taco John
01-02-2008, 09:17 AM
Thompson will be lucky to make it out of Iowa. Seriously. Does he even have enough gas money to get the lazy bus up to New Hampshire?

jAZ
01-02-2008, 09:24 AM
Thompson will be lucky to make it out of Iowa. Seriously. Does he even have enough gas money to get the lazy bus up to New Hampshire?
ROFL

Silock
01-02-2008, 05:59 PM
Paul sells fear of pissing off anti-American, anti-Western, anti-modernity rabble in the third world.

I'm buying it.

recxjake
01-02-2008, 06:14 PM
Thompson will be lucky to make it out of Iowa. Seriously. Does he even have enough gas money to get the lazy bus up to New Hampshire?

ROFL ROFL

Fred will be out Saturday... probably will endorse McCain for NH

Hydrae
01-02-2008, 06:26 PM
Paul sells fear of pissing off anti-American, anti-Western, anti-modernity rabble in the third world.


No, Paul is selling a return to the values that made this country great. Period.

recxjake
01-02-2008, 06:31 PM
CBS’ Campaign Notebook quoted “Republican sources” saying Thompson may drop out and endorse McCain after Thursday if he doesn’t place in top two.

patteeu
01-02-2008, 08:37 PM
I'm buying it.

I know.

patteeu
01-02-2008, 08:38 PM
No, Paul is selling a return to the values that made this country great. Period.

I don't have a problem with you, Hydrae. I don't remember you criticizing all the other candidates for selling fear of this or fear of that, but when you boil it down, Paul is no different. They all sell both hope and fear.

Silock
01-02-2008, 08:46 PM
But when you boil it down, Paul is no different. They all sell both hope and fear.

I totally disagree.

jAZ
01-02-2008, 08:47 PM
CBS’ Campaign Notebook quoted “Republican sources” saying Thompson may drop out and endorse McCain after Thursday if he doesn’t place in top two.
Ouch.

If his supporters move to McCain enmass, that puts McCain way ahead of Rudy and the rest of the GOP pack. 9% ain't much when it comes to winning elections. But it's a hell of a boost when trying to pull ahead of the rest.

I can't believe McCain is going to win this GOP race. That's amazing.

SNR
01-02-2008, 09:06 PM
I don't have a problem with you, Hydrae. I don't remember you criticizing all the other candidates for selling fear of this or fear of that, but when you boil it down, Paul is no different. They all sell both hope and fear.Isn't it unavoidable? I can't think of any other motives foreign policy wise other than pure hate that would eliminate fear. If someone sticks around in Iraq, they're afraid the terrorists will follow us home. If we leave, it's because we're afraid of loss of life and making the terrorists mad. Both generalizations are unfair, I think.

SNR
01-02-2008, 09:08 PM
Ouch.

If his supporters move to McCain enmass, that puts McCain way ahead of Rudy and the rest of the GOP pack. 9% ain't much when it comes to winning elections. But it's a hell of a boost when trying to pull ahead of the rest.

I can't believe McCain is going to win this GOP race. That's amazing.First it was Giuliani for the longest time. Then Thompson officially declared and the buzz was about him being a player. Then Romney started taking control. Then Huckabee was looking great. Now McCain.

I think we all know whose turn it is now... :)

Mr. Kotter
01-02-2008, 10:09 PM
CBS’ Campaign Notebook quoted “Republican sources” saying Thompson may drop out and endorse McCain after Thursday if he doesn’t place in top two.

That could happen, too. The reverse could also happen depending on Iowa's results.

McCain-Thompson supporters comprise what is left of the Reagan coalition. Together, they could defeat Huckabee/Romney/Giuliani's attempts to reshape the party.

Whichever one withdraws, if he throws his endorsement to the other....IMO, they immediately become a serious contender for the nomination.

With less than 24 hours, my hunch says....Romney; my head says Huckabee, and my heart says....McCain/Thompson.

Guess we will soon see which I ought to be following. :)

....I can't believe McCain is going to win this GOP race. That's amazing.

I'd be surprised too; but pleasantly so. McCain is the second best option on the Republican side, AFAIC. Although, depending on Obama's campaign in the general....I can still see returning to the old party. :hmmm:

Mr. Kotter
01-02-2008, 10:12 PM
First it was Giuliani for the longest time. Then Thompson officially declared and the buzz was about him being a player. Then Romney started taking control. Then Huckabee was looking great. Now McCain.

I think we all know whose turn it is now... :)

Paul could surprise..shock, by finishing third. He has the techno-geek-internet-Gestapo on his side, and in the 21st Century....that could be enough.

The powers that be in the real "party" won't let it go any further than that, though....watch. :)

jAZ
01-02-2008, 11:10 PM
First it was Giuliani for the longest time. Then Thompson officially declared and the buzz was about him being a player. Then Romney started taking control. Then Huckabee was looking great. Now McCain.

I think we all know whose turn it is now... :)
:D

jAZ
01-02-2008, 11:22 PM
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7682_Page2.html

Fred Thompson may drop out

By: Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen
Jan 2, 2008 11:05 PM EST

DES MOINES, Iowa – Several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign said they expect the candidate will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday’s Iowa caucus.

Thompson’s campaign, which last spring and summer was generating fevered anticipation in the media and with some Republican activists, has never ignited nationally, and there are no signs of a late spark happening here in Iowa, where even a third-place finish is far from assured.

This reality—combined with a fundraising drought—left well-connected friends and advisers of Thompson Wednesday evening predicting that he will pull the plug on hype and hope before the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary.

Thompson’s departure could shake up the race more than his continued presence. Friends and advisers said they have long considered it likely that if the lobbyist-actor is forced from the race he would endorse John McCain his former Senate colleague who lately has been staging a political revival in New Hampshire.

“Without a solid third-place finish, there’s no point in going on,” a Thompson adviser said Wednesday. “It was an honorable race, and he turned out to be a good candidate. The moment had just passed.”

A Thompson campaign source said there is “a strong likelihood” that if Thompson comes in a distant third in Iowa, with less than 15 percent of the vote, he would drop out soon—most likely before this weekend’s New Hampshire presidential debates.

The Thompson sources said they were describing a consensus expectation that is now widespread among his political circle, not announcing a decision that the candidate himself has definitively reached.

But Thompson lately has been dropping clear signals that he has reached an up-or-out moment of his own. On Wednesday he took the unusual step of raising expectations for himself at a time when most other candidates are trying to lower them.

When asked what Iowa results he’d be happy with, Thompson held up two fingers, indicating a second-place finish, according to reporters who were with him.

He did something similar on Sunday, when Thompson—apparently in a semi-jocular mood—dismayed his staff by telling reporters that he needed to finish second in the caucuses, a bar that nobody here expects him to cross.

Thompson aides have long said he needs an early victory to serve as a bridge to connect him to the key Southern contests that he envisioned propelling him to the nomination. Thompson had pinned his hopes entirely on Iowa serving that role. But every recent poll has showed him lagging in a distant third.

Thompson picked up a key endorsement in the backing of Rep. Steve King, a conservative who represents the western part of the state, and had won acclaim from conservative activists for his closing message to Iowa voters, a Web video arguing that the Democratic candidates are all running to the left and beholden to special interests like the National Education Association.

Thompson, the former U.S. senator from Tennessee and “Law and Order” actor, brought a dash of celebrity and down-home humor to the strait-laced field of Republican candidates. But conservatives’ excitement quickly dissipated after he got off to a sluggish start and showed only sporadic enthusiasm for campaigning.

Recently, his stump speeches have dripped with contempt for the press and the campaign process, and this week he even joked about napping. On New Year’s Day, he held just one campaign event at a time when the top candidates were going full throttle.

His war chest was so depleted that he was unable to advertise on television after Christmas, and was only able to back on the air in Iowa by blasting a stream of e-mails pleading for contributions.

Friends and advisers emphasized that no deal has been cut to have Thompson endorse McCain. But they note that there would be a logic to doing so soon, in order to help a friend and colleague at a moment when he needs it most. In turn, Thompson might be named attorney general in a McCain administration.

Trying to fend off rumors about an impending demise of the campaign, Thompson issued a news release Wednesday afternoon saying he plans to participate in debates in New Hampshire on Saturday and Sunday. Thompson was alone in issuing such a release: No other campaign thought that was necessary.

Despite the air of doom hovering over his candidacy, Thompson has not yet shared his intentions with the campaign or indicated to friends that he has reached a decision in tandem with his wife, Jeri, an influential adviser. Campaign underlings continue to make plans as far ahead as Super Tuesday, Feb. 5.

“Doing well in Iowa means exceeding expectations, and Fred has been exceeding expectations for more than forty years,” said Karen Henretty, a Thompson spokeswoman. “Thursday’s results aren’t likely to close any chapters.”

But other advisers to Thompson described his campaign as “broke” and said that without a shot of momentum from Iowa, continuing the campaign would be pointless and impractical.

Thompson advisers expect Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee to claim the two top spots in the Iowa caucuses. The main suspense is whether Thompson will finish close enough to get credit for a surprisingly strong performance, coaxing him to keep battling, or will finish far behind.

Thompson and McCain had a close relationship until the former actor entered the White House race. In 2000, the Thompson was one of just four Senate Republicans to endorse McCain’s presidential bid.

At the start of this year, Thompson was even making phone calls on behalf of McCain’s campaign. Thompson has built little support in New Hampshire, so his endorsement would not mean a lot for McCain there.

But Thompson has been near the top of most polls in South Carolina, which holds its primary on Jan. 19. So his backing there could help McCain capitalize on any momentum he picks up in the first two contests.

Mr. Kotter
01-02-2008, 11:26 PM
jAZ, thanks for the article.... :rolleyes:

I read it 6-8 hours ago. Of course the contention, could depending on who comes out third in about 20 hours...

be 180 degrees reversed. :)

patteeu
01-02-2008, 11:37 PM
I totally disagree.

That's because you have your Paul blinders on as tight as they go.

'Hamas' Jenkins
01-02-2008, 11:39 PM
Thompson will finish 5th in Iowa.

patteeu
01-02-2008, 11:40 PM
Isn't it unavoidable? I can't think of any other motives foreign policy wise other than pure hate that would eliminate fear. If someone sticks around in Iraq, they're afraid the terrorists will follow us home. If we leave, it's because we're afraid of loss of life and making the terrorists mad. Both generalizations are unfair, I think.

I'm not the guy who criticizes people for selling fear. I see nothing wrong with selling fear as long as it's justifiable fear. I agree that it's pretty much unavoidable unless you say something like "my opponent's foreign policy is happiness and sunshine, but mine includes rainbows too". And even then, you're selling the fear of not getting any rainbows if you don't elect the guy.

Mr. Kotter
01-02-2008, 11:41 PM
Thompson will finish 5th in Iowa.

He could. I'm thinking (hopin') third....once all is said and done. :)

jAZ
01-02-2008, 11:42 PM
jAZ, thanks for the article.... :rolleyes:

I read it 6-8 hours ago. Of course the contention, could depending on who comes out third in about 20 hours...

be 180 degrees reversed. :)
Yes, the man leading in the national polls AND in New Hampshire... might drop out of the race before New Hampshire.

Go to bed, you are starting to act like Jake.

Mr. Kotter
01-02-2008, 11:45 PM
Yes, the man leading in the national polls AND in New Hampshire... might drop out of the race before New Hampshire.

Go to bed, you are starting to act like Jake.

National polls at this point, are next to meaningless....ask Giuliani, Hillary, or Romney....heh.

With the current primary calendar, NH is important....ONLY to those who may win it. If McCain fails to show in Iowa, Romney will win in NH IMO. THAT will set the stage for a wild SC and "beyond" possibly leading to a brokered convention.

Silock
01-02-2008, 11:46 PM
That's because you have your Paul blinders on as tight as they go.

:rolleyes:

If you can't understand the difference between having respect for other cultures and "fear," then you have a serious problem. I can understand your immediate jump to the "fear" conclusion, though; the neo-cons have you trained very, very well.

jAZ
01-02-2008, 11:50 PM
National polls at this point, are next to meaningless....ask Giuliani, Hillary, or Romney....heh.

With the current primary calendar, NH is important....ONLY to those who may win it. If McCain fails to show in Iowa, Romney will win in NH IMO. THAT will set the stage for a wild SC and "beyond" possibly leading to a brokered convention.
So you aren't actually saying that McCain might be ready to drop out of the race before NH like Thompson appears ready to do with a less than 2nd place showing.

patteeu
01-02-2008, 11:59 PM
:rolleyes:

If you can't understand the difference between having respect for other cultures and "fear," then you have a serious problem. I can understand your immediate jump to the "fear" conclusion, though; the neo-cons have you trained very, very well.

If it were true that Ron Paul's only message was a positive one about having respect for other cultures, there would be no need to mention blowback. But of course, it's not really true.

Silock
01-03-2008, 12:00 AM
That doesn't really seem like selling fear. Seems like selling the shortcomings of the status quo.

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 12:04 AM
So you aren't actually saying that McCain might be ready to drop out of the race before NH like Thompson appears ready to do with a less than 2nd place showing.

I think a 3rd place showing by Thompson will keep him in the race. But, yes, regardless McCain will hang on through NH. Depending on the results there, I think whichever of the two does best against Huckabee in SC....is the real "challenger" who will push Huckabee/Romney for the nomination.

To me, it's a difference of 7-10 days; because I expect Thompson to finish third in Iowa. If McCain does finish third, Thompson could end the suspense more quickly....for the good of the party. I'd consider that a good, and honorable, thing.

patteeu
01-03-2008, 12:11 AM
That doesn't really seem like selling fear. Seems like selling the shortcomings of the status quo.

Talking about a mushroom cloud in a major American city isn't selling fear either. It's a candid assessment of an emerging threat that we need to start planning for to prevent it from becoming a reality. IOW, it's just selling the shortcomings of the status quo.

jAZ
01-03-2008, 12:15 AM
...Thompson could end the suspense more quickly....for the good of the party.
Ouch.

Silock
01-03-2008, 12:30 AM
Talking about a mushroom cloud in a major American city isn't selling fear either. It's a candid assessment of an emerging threat that we need to start planning for to prevent it from becoming a reality. IOW, it's just selling the shortcomings of the status quo.

You seriously can't see the entirely different tone between Paul's message and 9ui11iani's and the rest of the neo-con candidates? Although, I shouldn't really be surprised at your inability to look at Paul with any kind of open-mindedness.

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 12:33 AM
Ouch.

I'm a realist. Thompson has to finish third in Iowa, to have a real chance. If he doesn't he should try to help the next best guy....that's McCain, it would seem. And I agree.

BucEyedPea
01-03-2008, 07:32 AM
Per Zogby, Paul has now risen to 10% in Iowa tying with MCain. Paul trending upwards in recent polls.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0264367920080103

patteeu
01-03-2008, 10:05 AM
You seriously can't see the entirely different tone between Paul's message and 9ui11iani's and the rest of the neo-con candidates? Although, I shouldn't really be surprised at your inability to look at Paul with any kind of open-mindedness.

Are you talking about vocal quality or substance? I ignore the shrillness of Paul's delivery and focus on the substance. Like I said before, each candidate sells both hope and fear. Paul sells fear of blowback and economic disaster if you don't accept his prescriptions for foreign and domestic policy. I think I'm much more open-minded about this than you are. Afterall, I'm the one admitting that the candidates I favor use fear just like all the others. You're denying that yours does.

Nightfyre
01-03-2008, 01:50 PM
Are you talking about vocal quality or substance? I ignore the shrillness of Paul's delivery and focus on the substance. Like I said before, each candidate sells both hope and fear. Paul sells fear of blowback and economic disaster if you don't accept his prescriptions for foreign and domestic policy. I think I'm much more open-minded about this than you are. Afterall, I'm the one admitting that the candidates I favor use fear just like all the others. You're denying that yours does.
Paul sells fear about interventionism and economic collapse. I'll accept that. All the other candidates seem to be ignoring the economy, AFAICT. In fact, all I hear from the other candidates is about their stance on the WoT. Maybe that's just because that's all I need to exclude them from getting my vote tho.