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jAZ
01-02-2008, 02:19 PM
Poll.

(Not who you *want* to win... but who you believe will win.)

jAZ
01-02-2008, 02:39 PM
Oops...was supposed to be alphabetic by last name, but I screwed up the Bloomberg one. Sorry to any Biden fans.

Sully
01-02-2008, 03:06 PM
I believe in my guy, especially once the real bullets start flying.

chiefforlife
01-02-2008, 06:04 PM
Poll.

(Not who you *want* to win... but who you believe will win.)


To me, its the same person...Obama!

No other candidate excites people like Obama does.

Donger
01-02-2008, 06:10 PM
McCain.

Cochise
01-02-2008, 06:16 PM
I conducted the same poll a few months ago, it would be interesting to compare the results.

I think at that time I selected Hillary. Given her weakening position, I'm not sure she is definitely the most likely... I selected Romney because I'm feeling like he will win the GOP nomination, and that Hillary will more than likely still win the Democratic nomination, but she might be more vulnerable than we first thought.

I was always about 50/50 on whether she could win in the general... on the one hand, there will be an unprecedented media blitz in her favor, the Clinton machine is very powerful, and they would have a lot of time to try to rehab her image and convince people to vote for Bill... I have no problem believing that liberals of all stripes will line up and hold their nose to vote for her no matter what they say... but I think she'd drive off moderates and really motivate the right.

I think it would probably end up being pretty close, but Romney could beat her politicing.

chiefforlife
01-02-2008, 07:04 PM
So...A black guy, a woman and a mormon are running for president.
The woman walks up to the bartender and says...


I just sounded like the beginning of a joke to me?

clemensol
01-02-2008, 07:23 PM
So, do you guys supporting the likes of Thompson and Paul honestly believe that your candidate has the best chance of winning or did you guys just not read the poll?

a1na2
01-02-2008, 07:49 PM
Wiley E. Coyote

jAZ
01-02-2008, 08:14 PM
So, do you guys supporting the likes of Thompson and Paul honestly believe that your candidate has the best chance of winning or did you guys just not read the poll?
Don't forget the Kucinich vote... the same Kucinich who's asking his supporters to back Obama when he doesn't get to 15% in Iowa.

jAZ
01-02-2008, 08:14 PM
Pat Paulson
You're old. :p

Cochise
01-02-2008, 08:45 PM
So, do you guys supporting the likes of Thompson and Paul honestly believe that your candidate has the best chance of winning or did you guys just not read the poll?

A lot of people including myself vote in polls sometimes without reading the whole question, I'm sure that explains some of it... the Paul votes and the Kucinich vote and the Edwards vote... and the Rudy vote for that matter

recxjake
01-02-2008, 08:59 PM
A lot of people including myself vote in polls sometimes without reading the whole question, I'm sure that explains some of it... the Paul votes and the Kucinich vote and the Edwards vote... and the Rudy vote for that matter

Rudy will be the next President though.

jAZ
01-02-2008, 10:10 PM
Rudy will be the next President (of Guiliani Partners) though.

Logical
01-02-2008, 10:45 PM
I think Hillary will get the nomination and name Obama as her VP candidate. Together they will beat the Republicans.

jAZ
01-02-2008, 11:01 PM
Wiley E. Coyote
Now you are even older. ;)

a1na2
01-02-2008, 11:04 PM
Rudy will be the next President though.

Only in your dreams rex, only in your dreams.

Mr. Kotter
01-02-2008, 11:42 PM
So...A black guy, a woman and a mormon are running for president.
The woman walks up to the bartender and says...


I just sounded like the beginning of a joke to me?

It IS a joke....except you forgot to include the geek/nerd named Dr. Paul....

which one of the Obama/McCain/Huckabee/Thompson will emerge from the fog....next November. :)

patteeu
01-03-2008, 12:09 AM
A lot of people including myself vote in polls sometimes without reading the whole question, I'm sure that explains some of it... the Paul votes and the Kucinich vote and the Edwards vote... and the Rudy vote for that matter

Paul voters are programmed to automatically answer "Paul" if given the option (or if they can hack an option into the poll by brute force).

jAZ
01-03-2008, 12:27 AM
It IS a joke....except you forgot to include the geek/nerd named Dr. Paul....

which one of the Obama/McCain/Huckabee/Thompson will emerge from the fog....next November. :)
Hey Fred-bot...

I'm going to laugh my ass off when Thompson drops out of the race within 48-72 hours after you cast your vote in this thread.

ROFL

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 12:30 AM
Hey Fred-bot...

I'm going to laugh my ass off when Thompson drops out of the race within 48-72 hours after you cast your vote in this thread.

ROFL

Okay, Mr. Wesley Clarke-bot....oh, wait, he never even entered the race, did he??? My bad...

ROFL ROFL ROFL

jAZ
01-03-2008, 12:34 AM
Okay, Mr. Wesley Clarke-bot....oh, wait, he never even entered the race, did he??? My bad...

ROFL ROFL ROFL
Wow, that's weak.

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 01:11 AM
Wow, that's weak.

Not for those of us who remember you pimpin' his crap here not so long ago. Heh. ROFL

jAZ
01-03-2008, 01:17 AM
Not for those of us who remember you pimpin' his crap here not so long ago. Heh. ROFL
We are going to end up finding out that you were drinking tonight, aren't we?

Taco John
01-03-2008, 01:22 AM
http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/8721/whitehouse4saleblackwhilt0.gif

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 01:43 AM
We are going to end up finding out that you were drinking tonight, aren't we?

Not at all. Just to be clear...and FTR, if you wish:

I voted for Thompson in the poll, out of passionate loyalty and hope...what my head says the real "odds" are, at this point though?

For the Democratic Nomination:
Hillary 2:1
Barak 3:1
Edwards 10:1
Dodd, Biden, Richardson: 30:1 or more

For the Republican Nomination:
Huckabee 2:1
Romney 2.5:1
Giuliaini 5:1
Thompson, McCain 20:1
Hunter, Paul, Keyes 100:1

For the General Election victory:
Barak 5:1
Huckabee 6:1
Romney 8:1
Giuliani 15:1
Hillary, McCain 25:1
Thompson 50:1
Dodd, Biden, Richardson 100:1
Hunter, Paul, Keyes 1000:1
Bloomberg 10000:1

a1na2
01-03-2008, 05:49 AM
J. Fred Muggs.

patteeu
01-03-2008, 10:58 AM
Not at all. Just to be clear...and FTR, if you wish:

I voted for Thompson in the poll, out of passionate loyalty and hope...what my head says the real "odds" are, at this point though?

...

For the Republican Nomination:
Huckabee 2:1
Romney 2.5:1
Giuliaini 5:1
Thompson, McCain 20:1
Hunter, Paul, Keyes 100:1

...

How does this square with your thread from a day or so ago where you conclude that the Republican nomination is down to Huckabee, McCain or Thompson (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=177865)?

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 11:04 AM
How does this square with your thread from a day or so ago where you conclude that the Republican nomination is down to Huckabee, McCain or Thompson (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=177865)?

It's simple to me. It's the difference between "polling" and analysis.

If the Repubs want to win in the general, it almost has to be Huckabee, McCain, or Thompson. In my opinion, Romney is not electable in the general election.....unless he faces Hillary (even then, Hillary could still win.) Giuliani has a slim chance of rebounding, but I suspect he'll be burried by the time we get to Florida....so that's why I count him out.

Romney would be a sacrificial lamb in the general election (unless the Dems offer up Hill,) and Giuliani would have to wage far too defensive of a campaign to win in my view.

JMHO :shrug:

patteeu
01-03-2008, 11:45 AM
It's simple to me. It's the difference between "polling" and analysis.

If the Repubs want to win in the general, it almost has to be Huckabee, McCain, or Thompson. In my opinion, Romney is not electable in the general election.....unless he faces Hillary (even then, Hillary could still win.) Giuliani has a slim chance of rebounding, but I suspect he'll be burried by the time we get to Florida....so that's why I count him out.

Romney would be a sacrificial lamb in the general election (unless the Dems offer up Hill,) and Giuliani would have to wage far too defensive of a campaign to win in my view.

JMHO :shrug:

That doesn't clear it up for me. You said the race for the nomination was down to 3 guys but when you posted these odds, only 1 of them is a top 3 favorite. I didn't see anything in either thread that indicated you were talking specifically about electability in the general election. Both threads seemed to be about who you thought would get the nomination. :shrug:

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 11:48 AM
That doesn't clear it up for me. You said the race for the nomination was down to 3 guys but when you posted these odds, only 1 of them is a top 3 favorite. I didn't see anything in either thread that indicated you were talking specifically about electability in the general election. Both threads seemed to be about who you thought would get the nomination. :shrug:

Polling and odds are for Vegas types and lazy voters.

My top three is based more on my personal analysis and opinion of factors beyond the horse-race aspect of election--that are usually neglected by the oddsmakers.

patteeu
01-03-2008, 12:01 PM
Polling and odds are for Vegas types and lazy voters.

My top three is based more on my personal analysis and opinion of factors beyond the horse-race aspect of election--that are usually neglected by the oddsmakers.

So tell me in plain language, which candidate do *you* think has the best chance at the nomination? Which has the 2nd best chance? 3rd? etc.

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 12:19 PM
So tell me in plain language, which candidate do *you* think has the best chance at the nomination? Which has the 2nd best chance? 3rd? etc.

Based purely on chance....
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain/Giuliani

As I've said though, I think Romney is extremely vulnerable which is why, in my final calculus....I think he'll crumble.

I view Romney as akin to the Chiefs under Vermiel; high risk, high reward. Huckabee is more akin to the Chiefs under Marty. Either way, the Repubs would face an unphill battle in the "playoffs" (the general election.) Heh.

;)

jAZ
01-03-2008, 12:23 PM
Kotter's drunk.

patteeu
01-03-2008, 12:28 PM
Based purely on chance....
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain/Giuliani


WTF? That list is different than both of your previous lists. Is this your final answer?

Cochise
01-03-2008, 12:31 PM
Kotter spend the whole morning swilling beer out of Mason jars in those gas-station casinos up there LMAO

Taco John
01-03-2008, 12:41 PM
WTF? That list is different than both of your previous lists. Is this your final answer?



His final answer is whichever one of the five different predictions he made he bumps AFTER the caucus happens.

ChiefsCountry
01-03-2008, 12:51 PM
I think Hillary will get the nomination and name Obama as her VP candidate. Together they will beat the Republicans.

That would be the Democrats kiss of death IMO.

Taco John
01-03-2008, 12:52 PM
That would be the Democrats kiss of death IMO.



I disagree... That would be the strongest ticket that I could imagine on both sides of the aisle. It would be incredibly hard to beat.

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 01:01 PM
Perhaps we've conflated Iowa, polling/odds, and my own assessment of the election as I see it.

The myriad of threads and predictions has confused the issue....for the sake of clarity, allow me to try one more time:

My Iowa prediction: 1. Romney, 2. Huckabee, 3. McCain/Thompson

Rough Odds-makers view of Republican candidates to win nomination, as best I can tell:
Huckabee 2:1
Romney 2.5:1
Giuliaini 5:1
Thompson, McCain 20:1
Hunter, Paul, Keyes 100:1

My "own" assessment and analysis of the national Republican nomination, based solely on mathmatical odds, presently:
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain/Giuliani
4. Thompson

My "own" best guess and analysis based on a myriad of factors (polling, current standing, likely primary outcomes, voter demographics and trends both historically and in the current election cycle, etc.--including personal biases and instincts, which makes this the least reliable)
1. Huckabee
2. McCain
3. Thompson

Better? :shrug:

:)

jAZ
01-03-2008, 01:06 PM
Hey Fred-bot...

I'm going to laugh my ass off when Thompson drops out of the race within 48-72 hours after you cast your vote in this thread.

ROFL
Fred denies specific rumors of dropping out and backing McCain before New Hampshire.

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But won't deny that he might decide to do just that after tonight.

jAZ
01-03-2008, 01:09 PM
Perhaps we've conflated Iowa, polling/odds, and my own assessment of the election as I see it.

The myriad of threads and predictions has confused the issue....for the sake of clarity, allow me to try one more time:

My Iowa prediction: 1. Romney, 2. Huckabee, 3. McCain/Thompson

Rough Odds-makers view of Republican candidates, as best I can tell:
Huckabee 2:1
Romney 2.5:1
Giuliaini 5:1
Thompson, McCain 20:1
Hunter, Paul, Keyes 100:1

My "own" assessment and analysis of the national Republican nomination, based solely on mathmatical odds, presently:
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain/Giuliani
4. Thompson

My "own" best guess and analysis based on a myriad of factors (polling, current standing, likely primary outcomes, voter demographics and trends both historically and in the current election cycle, etc.--including personal biases and instincts, which makes this the least reliable)
1. Huckabee
2. McCain
3. Thompson

Better? :shrug:

:)
(Disclaimer: Don't take this as a threat or anything like that... because going offline with this stuff is F'ed up.)

But...

What do you think your students would think of your behavior in this thread. I suspect you'd be embarassed and they'd laugh at you.

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 01:09 PM
Fred denies specific rumors of dropping out and backing McCain before New Hampshire.

But won't deny that he might decide to do just that after tonight.

What do you expect him to say? :shrug:

I've told you...if he doesn't get third tonight, he should come out for McCain. It would be in the partie's best interest, IMO.

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 01:13 PM
(Disclaimer: Don't take this as a threat or anything like that... because going offline with this stuff is F'ed up.)

But...

What do you think your students would think of your behavior in this thread. I suspect you'd be embarassed and they'd laugh at you.

Is this your way of saying....you are unable to grasp the distinction between polling/odds making (snapshots in time,) and analysis based on other factors that polling does not take into account?

In fairness to you...it is a sufficiently complex topic, that it would really be much easier to explain in person, of course.

patteeu
01-03-2008, 01:25 PM
Perhaps we've conflated Iowa, polling/odds, and my own assessment of the election as I see it.

The myriad of threads and predictions has confused the issue....for the sake of clarity, allow me to try one more time:

My Iowa prediction: 1. Romney, 2. Huckabee, 3. McCain/Thompson

Rough Odds-makers view of Republican candidates to win nomination, as best I can tell:
Huckabee 2:1
Romney 2.5:1
Giuliaini 5:1
Thompson, McCain 20:1
Hunter, Paul, Keyes 100:1

My "own" assessment and analysis of the national Republican nomination, based solely on mathmatical odds, presently:
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain/Giuliani
4. Thompson

My "own" best guess and analysis based on a myriad of factors (polling, current standing, likely primary outcomes, voter demographics and trends both historically and in the current election cycle, etc.--including personal biases and instincts, which makes this the least reliable)
1. Huckabee
2. McCain
3. Thompson

Better? :shrug:

:)

No. Not at all. That's OK though. I'll just discount any claims of "I called it" that you might make after the election is over because at this point I think you've called it in just about every conceivable way. The only thing I'll hold you to is your supreme confidence that Fred Thompson would be the Republican nominee. You practically guaranteed it before Thompson even entered the race. "Watch and learn" I think you told recxjake.

What you call the "Rough Odds-makers view... as best as [you] can tell" in this post is what you said your own "head says" in post #26.

Here are some old posts from past threads where you discussed Fred Thompson.

New Poll out tonight....

Washington Post/ABC News Poll 9/11. Click here

Rudy Giuliani 28%
Fred Thompson 19%
John McCain 18%
Mitt Romney 10%
Mike Huckabee 5%
The poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 4-7 among a random national sample of 1,002 respondents. The Republican results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus five percentage points; it is four points for the Democratic results.

Yep.

Rudy's go a LOT to be proud of there, considering the money he's spent....and the fact that that guy, now hot on his ass, got in the race....FIVE DAYS ago.

ROFL

Let's "chat" in December...when the polls really matter, dude.

Watch and learn, grasshopper. :D

;)

and

Thompson M.I.A.
Where's Fred?

That was the question last week, as the newest Republican candidate in the GOP presidential race, Fred Thompson, made his first-ever debate appearance in Michigan -- and then promptly vanished.

While other candidates have been holding multiple events in New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and elsewhere, Thompson largely has left the campaign trail. He even cancelled a half-day of campaigning
that had been scheduled for New Hampshire. A campaign adviser said Thompson decided the time and effort was better spent on a bigger trip later.

In the six days since the debate, Thompson has had few public appearances. He gave an interview on the Fox News Channel Monday, and was scheduled to speak to two Republican gatherings in Washington
D.C. on Tuesday. The next time Thompson is scheduled to hit the road is for the upcoming debate in Florida. His campaign announced he would have some events the day before in Florida, though they have
not yet provided any details.

Meanwhile, Thompson's rivals have been setting a frenetic pace. Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani was in South Carolina and Alabama. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney was in Michigan and Nevada last week and travels to Iowa and South Carolina this week.

--Michael D. Shear

Study the candidacy of Abraham Lincoln...or Ali's 'rope-a-dope.'


It's "throw-back" time, baby. Watch and learn.

and

Hopefully Fred is still alive by then.

Guaranteed.

Bi-atch.

;)

I love Thompson's ultra laid back (almost unnoticeable) way of kicking ass. :p

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 01:38 PM
No. Not at all. That's OK though. I'll just discount any claims of "I called it" that you might make after the election is over because at this point I think you've called it in just about every conceivable way. The only thing I'll hold you to is your supreme confidence that Fred Thompson would be the Republican nominee. You practically guaranteed it before Thompson even entered the race. "Watch and learn" I think you told recxjake.

What you call the "Rough Odds-makers view... as best as [you] can tell" in this post is what you said your own "head says" in post #26.


I love Thompson's ultra laid back (almost unnoticeable) way of kicking ass. :p

Head-heart-gut.....instincts are messy to sort out, especially in an evolving race. Sue me for some trash talkin', I guess. :shrug:

FWIW, "it ain't over until it's over." If Fred can score a respectable third tonight...it ain't over. :D

jAZ
01-03-2008, 01:42 PM
Is this your way of saying....you are unable to grasp the distinction between polling/odds making (snapshots in time,) and analysis based on other factors that polling does not take into account?

In fairness to you...it is a sufficiently complex topic, that it would really be much easier to explain in person, of course.
It's my way of saying that your behavior on this thread is a terrible example for kids. And I bet you would never show your students this this (or any number of other) threads because you know how embarassing your own behavior often is around here.

patteeu
01-03-2008, 01:42 PM
Head-heart-gut.....instincts are messy to sort out, especially in an evolving race. Sue me for some trash talkin', I guess. :shrug:

FWIW, "it ain't over until it's over." If Fred can score a respectable third tonight...it ain't over. :D

I'd be happy if Fred turns into an effective campaigner, wins the nomination, and trounces the dem nominee. I'll keep my fingers crossed for your vindication. :)

jAZ
01-03-2008, 01:45 PM
I love Thompson's ultra laid back (almost unnoticeable) way of kicking ass. :p
ROFL Rep.

Kotter is truely the "great uniter" around here.

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 01:46 PM
I'd be happy if Fred turns into an effective campaigner, wins the nomination, and trounces the dem nominee. I'll keep my fingers crossed for your vindication. :)

Kerry was in worse shape before Iowa in 2004. :shrug:

We'll know soon enough...

Cochise
01-03-2008, 01:53 PM
I'd like to see Fred beat McCain or come in close to him. Just don't see it.

Sort of disappointed that I'm going to have to pick another candidate before Missouri votes, more than likely.

jAZ
01-03-2008, 02:03 PM
Kerry was in worse shape before Iowa in 2004. :shrug:

We'll know soon enough...
Just admit you have no idea what you are talking about...

I believe this is the same poll that had Obama leading by 7% this week.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-01-18-iowa-poll_x.htm

Poll shows late surge by Kerry and Edwards; Dean now third
Posted 1/18/2004 8:53 AM Updated 1/18/2004 11:22 PM

DES MOINES (AP) John Kerry and John Edwards were bunched in the lead with Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt still within striking distance, according to a new copyright Iowa Poll published in The Des Moines Register just one day before Iowa's leadoff precinct caucuses.
Twenty-six percent of the 606 Iowans polled Tuesday through Friday supported Kerry as their first choice for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Edwards, who was in single digits in an Iowa Poll taken two months ago, was the first choice among 23% of the respondents, for his highest finish in any media poll so far.

Twenty percent of the respondents named Dean as their first choice, while 18% picked Gephardt.

Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich, retired Army general Wesley Clark, Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman and Rev. Al Sharpton all were in single digits.

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 02:08 PM
Just admit you have no idea what you are talking about...

Dude, I was referring to the overall position a 6-8 wks out. Yes, Kerry made a bigger move in the 4 weeks leading up to the actual caucus....but the dynamics and people involved in that race, along with Dean's demise....made that possible. The currently crowded field of viable Republicans....is a much different circumstance than the one Kerry had fall into his lap in 2004.

Otter
01-03-2008, 02:08 PM
You can't seriously expect to get an unbiased answer at this stage in the game.

That's silly.

jAZ
01-03-2008, 02:20 PM
Dude, I was referring to the overall position a 6-8 wks out. Yes, Kerry made a bigger move in the 4 weeks leading up to the actual caucus....but the dynamics and people involved in that race, along with Dean's demise....made that possible. The currently crowded field of viable Republicans....is a much different circumstance than the one Kerry had fall into his lap in 2004.
Oh... if you only knew how desperate these sort of spinning posts make you look. Maybe you don't care.

Admitting you were wrong isn't as hard as it seems.

Baby Lee
01-03-2008, 02:30 PM
I think Hillary will get the nomination and name Obama as her VP candidate. Together they will beat the Republicans.
No way those two team up. There's genuine antipathy.
Hillary's backers hate him as much as they hate the RW.

It's about whether you want to continue the Boomer wars or not.

Calcountry
01-03-2008, 02:43 PM
I am undecided. No Gaz option.