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Taco John
01-03-2008, 09:22 AM
Step right up. Put some skin on the board. Nobody will make fun of you later. Promise!

Hoover
01-03-2008, 09:28 AM
1. Huck
2. Mitt
3. McCain
4. Paul (really close to McCain)
5. Fred
6. Rudy
7. Hunter

Taco John
01-03-2008, 09:29 AM
My prediction for the Democrats:

1. JOHN EDWARDS - I've been saying this for awhile. I think John Edwards people are going to show up today in numbers that people don't expect -- and I think he's going to get a lot more of the second choice votes than people realize.

2. Hillary Clinton - The Clinton Machine falters a little bit, but it's not a disaster. A strong second place finish keeps her ahead of Obama, and greases the wheels into New Hampshire.

3. Barack Obama - Doesn't get the turnout that he expected. Not as many independant converts as he needed to overcome the rank and file Democrats who fell in love with Edwards the last time around, or who are part of the Hillary machine. Could it be the end?

Taco John
01-03-2008, 09:37 AM
Republicans:

1. Mitt Romney - He has the money, and he has the organization. Mitt Romney proves that if you throw enough money around, you can buy favor. A win in New Hampshire might just make this thing official.

2. Mike Huckabee - Doesn't have the organization, but does have enough of the anti-mormon crowd to make a second place showing. It doesn't matter though, as the story line here is "Huckabee loses to Romney."

3. Ron Paul - The second shock out of Iowa (after Edwards). The enthusiasm in the Ron Paul campaign materializes in a third place finish and turns the Republican race on it head.

4. John McCain - Not as close as the pundits had imagined he'd be, John McCain finishes in fourth place and is ready to make his case for New Hampshire where everything is staked.

5. Fred Thompson - First of all, can I get a round of applause as I make my way towards the exit signs?

6. Rudy Giuliani - Finishing behind Ron Paul and Fred Thompson and having Romney win first place - pundits start blasting Giuliani and wondering if he's even going to be around for Florida, or if Romney will have is sewn up by then.

Cochise
01-03-2008, 09:43 AM
I think Huckabee will win, and Romney will finish a close second. This helps both of them, particularly if Romney wins in NH, because it will become a two horse race in the minds of the media. I have an inkling that Huckabee could however win this thing by more than most people are expecting, too. The organization and motivation of evangelicals, who he controls a majority of, is formidable. It's a group always underestimated and at the peril of whomever does it.

McCain will probably come in third, stronger showing than anyone would have expected a month or two ago, but Rasmussen a couple weeks ago had Thompson close to that position. I don't think he'll be able to pull third, but he could finish fourth and not far behind McCain - maybe. Paul more than likely will be fourth it seems, but he could finish close to McCain, I think the format favors him heavily.

On the other side, I still feel like Hillary will win.

The Register reported not very long ago that half the Dem voters in Iowa will not actually be Democrats, because Obama is polling very strongly with independents there. It depends on if those people being polled show up or not. I don't tend to ever feel that independent voters will blow the doors off the polls... but they could. Hillary is probably stronger among low income traditional democratic voters though, probably people who have caucused before or do so every time around. Obama can win if he brings his new people in, but if the same people showed up as did in the last Iowa caucus, Hillary would get it. Depends on who's there.

Only two things seem very likely to me, one is that both sides have close races and nothing really changes. The other is that Huckabee and Obama win by much wider margins than polling is showing. Sometimes Iowa does that. We'll see.

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 09:45 AM
Dems: Obama wins

Edwards finishes a close second....Hillary third.

Reps: Romney's ground force over-comes Huckabee's premature peak.

McCain and Thompson battle for third. Giuliani and Paul duke it out for fifth.

HolmeZz
01-03-2008, 09:45 AM
My prediction is that Ron Paul will continue to be nationally irrelevant.

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 09:48 AM
My prediction is that Ron Paul will continue to be nationally irrelevant.

Eh, he could surprise tonight....in terms of % of vote...if enough out-of-state computer techno geek-nerds invade the state, and manipulate the results with the silly rule-changes recently made....he could even finish in double digits.

Cochise
01-03-2008, 09:49 AM
My prediction is that Ron Paul will continue to be nationally irrelevant.

If he wanted to be a factor, he would definitely need to beat McCain. He'd probably need to finish third in New Hampshire even after doing that, because if he was third here and then slipped in the next primary, that wouldn't really help him surge.

McCain can turn out a lot of older folks who respect him to match Ron Paul's star trek convention alums and damn the man types. But it could be close between them.

HolmeZz
01-03-2008, 09:50 AM
I'm really not speaking about tonight. Paul is not going to win the nomination. Taco Isaac's time would be better spent picking out a nicer looking haircut.

oldandslow
01-03-2008, 09:51 AM
Dems: Obama wins

Edwards finishes a close second....Hillary third.

Reps: Romney's ground force over-comes Huckabee's premature peak.

McCain and Thompson battle for third. Giuliani and Paul duke it out for fifth.

I agree with this sentiment.

Which means, Rob, that we will probably both be wrong!!!

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 09:56 AM
I agree with this sentiment.

Which means, Rob, that we will probably both be wrong!!!

It's all a guessing game, but that where my instincts.....and analysis of polling and knowledge of the caucus process....lead me.

Of course, we still stand a better chance of being more accurate than the weather man.

Infidel Goat
01-03-2008, 10:05 AM
Obama, Edwards, Clinton

Huck, Mitt, Fred, McCain, Paul, Rudy, Hunter

Cochise
01-03-2008, 10:11 AM
Surprised that all of you are writing Clinton off. I can see her getting beat, she's run a poor campaign so far. But for some reason it just seems like she'll be able to win or keep it close. It's hard for me to see that the hypnotic spell the Clintons had over Democrats could be so thoroughly dispersed by now. But maybe it is... and the format doesn't favor her, probably. We'll see I guess. I wouldn't bet my life on it, but I'll believe that Clinton infatuation is over when I see it I guess...

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 10:16 AM
Surprised that all of you are writing Clinton off. I can see her getting beat, she's run a poor campaign so far. But for some reason it just seems like she'll be able to keep it close. It's hard for me to see that the hypnotic spell the Clintons had over Democrats could be so thoroughly dispersed by now. But maybe it is... and the format doesn't favor her, probably. We'll see I guess.

Second would be a lift for her campaign tonight; third.....especially a distant third....and the wheels will come off pretty quickly. I've been saying it all along: she is unelectable. I can only think of one or two scenarios in which she could pull off a general election victory....and those scenarios seem unlikely. Thinking democrats are loath to admit the truth of it, but it's why she's sinking.

patteeu
01-03-2008, 10:33 AM
Republican - Romney, Huckabee, McCain

Democrat - Edwards, Hilary, Obama

I think the democrat race (between 1st and 2nd) will end up closer than the Republican.

HolmeZz
01-03-2008, 10:40 AM
Huck
Mitt
Rudy
McCain
Paul
Fred
Hunter

How much you want to bet Rudy doesn't finish 3rd?

Iowanian
01-03-2008, 11:07 AM
1. Huck
2. Mitt
3. McCain
4. Paul (really close to McCain)
5. Fred
6. Rudy
7. Hunter

I'll go with this being very very close, but I think Thompson could beat ronpaul. I suppose the Urban areas could be higher on Paul than I'm hearing in mine.


Dem side.....a friend of mine is the local Obama leader....she fell and busted herself and asked me to go Caucus for him in her place. I told her I'd do alot of things to help her, but I'd rather Bufu Hillary on national TV.

I think the Dems shake out
Hillary
Obama
Edwards
Richardson

jAZ
01-03-2008, 11:30 AM
Edwards, Obama, Clinton (less than 5% seperates all 3)

Mitt, Huck, McCain, Paul, Fred, Rudy, Hunter

memyselfI
01-03-2008, 11:52 AM
Gawd, this political junkie just is not motivated by this particular political season even though it's started today. I can't get excited (either for or against) over any of these clowns.

With that in mind, here it goes:

Edwards-Obama-Clinton
Huck-Twitt-McCain

oldandslow
01-03-2008, 12:46 PM
Gawd, this political junkie just is not motivated by this particular political season even though it's started today. I can't get excited (either for or against) over any of these clowns.

With that in mind, here it goes:

Edwards-Obama-Clinton
Huck-Twitt-McCain

Seriously, what happened to your love for for John Edwards?

memyselfI
01-03-2008, 01:35 PM
Seriously, what happened to your love for for John Edwards?

I still like his policies. I think his timing is just wrong. I like him better than Obama and Hillary. I just don't think he's electable.

Taco John
01-03-2008, 01:58 PM
McCain campaign concerned about being derailed by Ron Paul


Des Moines, Iowa - GOP presidential candidate John McCain is deeply worried that his resurgent national campaign may be stalled by a relatively strong showing in tonight's Iowa caucuses by the iconoclastic Ron Paul.

The Arizona senator's campaign told the HuffPost that their candidate is concerned that Paul will finish third behind front-runners Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney.

McCain, whose campaign floundered earlier in the year, has been showing renewed strength in the battle to win the key New Hampshire primary next week. His national numbers have also been rising and one respected poll now has him in first place..

The McCain campaign also gives former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, currently leading the Iowa Republican polls, little chance of surviving New Hampshire even if he scores a clear victory in tonight's caucuses. The fight for the GOP nomination, McCain strategists believe, should be a head-to-head showdown between McCain and Mitt Romney.

A strong showing by Paul tonight could severely damage McCain's overall strategy. McCain is said to be especially irked because the outsider campaign of the Texas Congressman is given little viability on a national scale. But Paul raised $20 million from his fervent supporters in the last quarter of 2007, enough money to act as a spoiler for more mainstream candidates like McCain.

"Ron Paul's like the Joker in a poker game," said one McCain staffer. Paul reportedly dropped three mailers overnight and kicked his phone banks into turbo-mode in an all-out push to make into the final tier of tonight's winners.

Both McCain and Paul are currently tied at about 10% in most polls of likely Iowa caucus-goers. McCain has not actively campaigned in Iowa and skipped last summer's Republican Straw Poll. His visit to the state today just hours before the caucuses was one of his rare campaign trips here.

As Paul greeted his volunteers this morning at his downtown headquarters, the HuffPost asked for the candidate's reaction to McCain's anger: "I'm so excited. I'm excited he's so upset about me."


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/03/mccain-irked-by-ron-paul_n_79576.html

Cochise
01-03-2008, 02:04 PM
Is that good, that $20 million and all the stuff they have been doing has you possibly tied for (distant) third with a guy who made virtually no effort to campaign in the state...?

Silock
01-03-2008, 02:05 PM
I'm really not speaking about tonight. Paul is not going to win the nomination. Taco Isaac's time would be better spent picking out a nicer looking haircut.

WHO GIVES A ****? Seriously. We should get behind a candidate we don't believe in just because the one we support isn't the national media darling? What kind of sense does that make?

Are you so worried, even at this point in a primary election, that you haven't latched onto the future winner? What problem does it create for someone to support a candidate through the primary election?

Taco John
01-03-2008, 02:15 PM
Is that good, that $20 million and all the stuff they have been doing has you possibly tied for (distant) third with a guy who made virtually no effort to campaign in the state...?


Hahaha! ROFL

We didn't spend $20 million in Iowa. But yes, we've been given absolutely no chance in Iowa. Third place would be absolutely wonderful. It would be tremendous to finish ahead of McCain, Rudy, and Fred Thompson. I'm not suprised, however, that you're playing dumb about this, and trying to downplay the significance.

In fact, I expect it.

Cochise
01-03-2008, 02:27 PM
Actually I predicted 4th I think, so third wouldn't be shocking.

But no, I won't assign much significance to it in relation to who ends up being the nominee if he does somehow finish third in a two horse race in Iowa.

dirk digler
01-03-2008, 02:31 PM
I will go on record saying Obama and Huckabee will win.

I would admit to being shocked if Ron Paul came in third and I think that would be a huge boost to his campaign

clemensol
01-03-2008, 02:57 PM
Dems:

Obama
Edwards
Clinton

with obama and edwards is, i think, pretty much a toss up

Republicans:

Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Thompson
Paul
Guiliani

clemensol
01-03-2008, 02:57 PM
Dems:

Obama
Edwards
Clinton

obama and edwards is, i think, pretty much a toss up

Republicans:

Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Thompson
Paul
Guiliani

HonestChieffan
01-03-2008, 03:04 PM
Clinton wins demo. People will not, are not, wont, and aint gonna vote for Obama and Edwards is not fooling the Iowa rural voter who knows a snake when they see it.

Repubs have moved on and are not going to set much stock in who wins this go round...their messages have been refined in Iowa and the real battle begins next week.

Dems will come apart as the real facts of electability in the general election begin to sink in. Hillary will be come more shrill, Obama will attack and counter her showing how inexperienced he is and in the end we wont vote for a black or a woman to run the country.

Fact...print it.

jAZ
01-03-2008, 03:21 PM
People will not, are not, wont, and aint gonna vote for Obama ... in the end we wont vote for a black ...

Fact...print it.
Would you vote for a black person for President?

Also, are you saying that Dems should elect Hillary Edwards if they want a *chance* at winning in the General? Or rather, are you saying that the GOP is guaranteed victory in the General?

Cochise
01-03-2008, 03:23 PM
EYES ON IOWA: WHAT THEY NEED
By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN

January 3, 2008 -- THE Iowa caucuses mean dif ferent things for different candidates. Of course, Bar ack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, among the Democrats, and Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, among the Republicans, are vying for a win in Iowa tonight.

But several subprimaries are going on, as well: Obama vs. Edwards for the position of chief challenger to Clinton, John McCain vs. Rudy Giuliani for the right to wear the "moderate" Republican mantle and Fred Thompson vs. oblivion for the right to stay in the race.

So here's the scorecard to use in keeping track of what each candidate needs to get from Iowa:

Clinton: If she scores a decisive triumph, the race for the nomination is almost over. A victory here would likely propel her to a win in New Hampshire, and the nomination would be hers. But she doesn't need to win. Her national base is so strong that she just has to stop anyone else from winning.

If no clear winner emerges, but the results show, instead, a three-way tie with Obama and Edwards, or a two-way tie between herself and either of her challengers, she comes out the winner.

But if she clearly loses by a good margin or finishes third, she has blown a major opportunity and is in for a long cold winter of primaries. She won't be knocked out in Iowa, no matter what, but she could be knocked down.

Obama: He's got to win in Iowa. He's so far behind Clinton in the national standings that he needs a decisive victory to give him the momentum to prevail in New Hampshire and to compete in Florida and on Super Tuesday. He also needs to leave the pesky Edwards far behind so he can consolidate the anti-Clinton vote behind his candidacy.

Edwards: His immediate need is to finish close to or ahead of Obama so he can show that a vote for him isn't wasted. With pro- and anti-Clinton sentiment so strong, Edwards risks being excluded as an also-ran if he doesn't make it. He also needs Clinton not to win decisively so that the race stays alive. He has a decent shot in New Hampshire if he can stay in the race and make sure there still is one.

Huckabee: Win or die are his choices. The Huck-a-boom will be right in the ancient history books with the Howard Dean surge in September 2003. But even if Huckabee wins in Iowa, he'll probably lose in New Hampshire. Then his candidacy will come back to another game-set-match point in Michigan the following week.

Romney: He doesn't have to win, place or show. He's got a big checkbook so he can survive any kind of showing and stay in the game. But a defeat in Iowa might make him vulnerable to McCain in New Hampshire. A loss in the first two states would cost him Michigan, and he would limp into Super Tuesday with only a checkbook to protect him. Only.

McCain: He's got to finish third - or, in other words, beat Rudy. If he does, he has a good shot at winning New Hampshire and getting back into the game. If he doesn't, Romney will win New Hampshire and McCain will be out of the race. Huckabee has to hope McCain does finish third, so Romney doesn't win New Hampshire and, therefore, doesn't win Michigan. Got it?

Giuliani: The Republican front-runner is in a parallel situation with Clinton. He won't be knocked out no matter how badly he does. But finishing below McCain would mean that he has to split the moderate vote with the charismatic Arizona senator and could weaken his chances in Florida and on Super Tuesday.

Giuliani can lose Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina and still survive to compete in the big states that follow. But he lost a golden chance to avoid a fight by winning in Iowa.

And, if Clinton wins big in Iowa, it will help McCain and hurt Romney in New Hampshire. Why? All the independents who would've voted for or against Clinton in New Hampshire will pile into the Republican primary and may boost McCain to victory (if he survives Iowa).

And, by the same token, Giuliani needs Hillary to win in the early rounds so he can draw independents into the Republican primary to vote for him rather than the religious-right crowd.

Having fun yet?

jAZ
01-03-2008, 03:32 PM
Well, at least we learned how much Dick Morris hates Clinton.

trndobrd
01-03-2008, 03:45 PM
Dems:
Obama
Edwards
Clinton
Richardson
Dodd

Because of the realignment process in the Democrat's caucus, many of the supporters for 2nd tier candidates will have to vote for one of the 1st tier candidates. With Clinton's negatives as high as they are, they will likely gravitate towards Obama or Edwards.

Republicans:
Romney
Huckabee
Paul
Gulianai
Thompson

Romney has money, but he also showed a pretty strong ground game during the straw poll. Huckabee has had time to put together an organization, but has had a few slip ups. Paul supporters will come out regardless of flood, fire, famine, or really cold temperatures with high winds.

Pitt Gorilla
01-03-2008, 04:03 PM
I think Obama and Huck win tonight. I'm heading to the polls in about an hour.

jAZ
01-03-2008, 04:21 PM
I think Obama and Huck win tonight. I'm heading to the polls in about an hour.
Aren't you in Columbia, MO? Are you an Iowa voter?

Iowanian
01-03-2008, 04:37 PM
I got back from my meeting in time. I'll leave in about 45 minutes and will caucus.

mlyonsd
01-03-2008, 04:53 PM
Obama-Clinton-Edwards

Huckabee-Romney-McCain

Cochise
01-03-2008, 05:38 PM
I got back from my meeting in time. I'll leave in about 45 minutes and will caucus.

Come back and let us know what it's like.

Ultra Peanut
01-03-2008, 05:40 PM
IT'S TIME
IT'S TIME
IT'S VADER TIME-TIME-TIME-TIME-

Obama 34%
Edwards 30%
Clinton 26%

Paul 99%
Huckabee .29%
Romney .26%
McCain .18%
Thompson .zZz

'Hamas' Jenkins
01-03-2008, 05:53 PM
In order:

Huckabee
McCain
Romney
Paul
Giuliani
Thompson


D's:

Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Richardson
Biden
Kucinich

wazu
01-03-2008, 05:56 PM
Republicans

1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Paul
4. McCain
5. Thompson
6. Giuliani

Democrats

1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton

BucEyedPea
01-03-2008, 06:26 PM
Predictions are bad luck for me.

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 08:21 PM
Romney's "ground game" was over-rated. :shake:

Maybe I should stick with my "gut"....which, is good news for my boy. :)

Iowanian
01-03-2008, 08:22 PM
Iowans can smell bullshit a Mile away. I'm surprised that slick Mit didn't fall further than 2nd.

Pitt Gorilla
01-03-2008, 08:26 PM
Aren't you in Columbia, MO? Are you an Iowa voter?
No, I haven't lived in Columbia for years. I've been an Iowanian for quite some time.

Pitt Gorilla
01-03-2008, 08:27 PM
Iowans can smell bullshit a Mile away. I'm surprised that slick Mit didn't fall further than 2nd.
Yup. Mit was dropping like a lead weight around here.

Mr. Kotter
01-03-2008, 08:30 PM
Yup. Mit was dropping like a lead weight around here.

So, when he pulls out WHO benefits....McCain or Thompson??? :shrug:

:D

jAZ
01-03-2008, 08:35 PM
No, I haven't lived in Columbia for years. I've been an Iowanian for quite some time.
You're "Location" still has Columbia.

Infidel Goat
01-04-2008, 07:53 AM
Obama, Edwards, Clinton

Huck, Mitt, Fred, McCain, Paul, Rudy, Hunter


What do I win???

patteeu
01-04-2008, 08:31 AM
Romney's "ground game" was over-rated. :shake:

Yes, it was. The underperformance of his "ground game" is surpassed only by the silent but dedicated cell-phone using masses that failed to show up for Ron Paul and the Rudy support that recxjake was supposed to energize.

Huckabee rebounded well from the gaffes (related mostly to pakistan and foreign policy) and insincerity (his decision to stand above the fray of negative advertising by showing off his negative ad) that characterized his campaign after he took over as the Iowa frontrunner and both Fred Thompson and John McCain turned minor effort into significant achievement.

patteeu
01-04-2008, 08:32 AM
What do I win???

Great job, IG! I consider you the current Planet Political Prophet. I think you should start the official New Hampshire Prediction Thread.