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Deberg_1990
01-07-2008, 07:02 PM
Nice commentary on Digital Downloading and how HD DVD and Blue Ray war is just a minor distraction along the way....


http://www.chud.com/index.php?type=news&id=13101


Last week the big news, or so it seemed, was that Warner Bros announced they would go all Blu-Ray. The format war is over, was the consensus, and Blu-Ray has Betamaxed HD-DVD. But to me this was a minor skirmish in a bigger conflict, one whose eventual victor has barely begun to enter the fight. While everybody was paying lots of attention to already-archaic disc based physical storage media, the future winner - digital downloads - gained some ground as Netflix announced a new set-top box that would allow subscribers to download movies from the internet and watch them on their TVs.

Digital download is where this is all going. HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are distractions along the way; the truth is that anyone who replaces their entire DVD catalog with hi-def discs is going to feel like a major schmuck in about a decade or less. There are a few hurdles standing in the way of a world where all of our entertainment is streamed to us on demand, but they're all relatively minor, and they're all obstacles that are going to be surmounted by the inexorable forward march of technology anyway.

A lot of people reading this will immediately object to a future where you no longer buy physical objects that you store and display, but the truth is that these people are in the minority. Ten years ago I had more or less finished replacing my vinyl with CDs, and I couldn't picture a world where I would ever want to get rid of all those discs sitting on so many shelves. Even when Napster came along, with its novelty and its ease of use and its freeness, I figured that people would still want to buy CDs. They want those liner notes! They like owning the thing! Except it turns out that they don't. The whole world of music distribution is being turned upside down by the fact that people don't mind getting their music online, and while they're happy to pirate it, they've also been proven to be happy paying for it. All those CDs I used to own? They're in boxes today, their only function in life to hold up my bedroom television. Many of them are ripped on to my iPod, and the ones that aren't... well, let's just say that if I decide I want to listen to Touch Me I'm Sick and it's not on my iPod, there are easier ways for me to get it than to dig through the boxes. I buy CDs occasionally now, but I'd rather download my music, and I like it when someone offers me a reasonably priced way to do it legally.

Here's the rub when it comes to music and movies and ownership: people have been owning music on physical media for decades now. Our grandparents bought records. ****, Edison invented that shit. But it took just a decade for the change to happen, for people to essentially begin abandoning the buying of CDs (I am aware that a lot of people still buy CDs. In this case the change is like the old cliche about turning an aircraft carrier around; it'll take you some time. But we're at a point of no return with the music industry, where digital delivery is becoming utterly mainstream and not just for early adopters/hipsters/cutting edge techies). Now compare this with movies, which we've only been owning in a real way for about a decade. Before DVD, VHS tapes were rarely priced to own at first release. Only serious movie people had big collections of pre-taped VHS movies. But with the incredibly low price point of DVDs, everybody could build a library of their own. Still, they've only been at it for the last ten years or so, and if a decades long attachment to physical music delivery could be severed so quickly, the way people buy movies will change much faster. Just this past weekend, Bill Gates sat down with Reuters and spelled out the reality of the current format war: 'In the long run, people don’t want physical media. You don’t say to yourself, what’s the format battle after CD. If someone tried to introduce a new music format, you’d laugh and say ‘well isn’t that my phone, my iPod and my Zune?’ And you’d be right.'

I have to admit that my life is better without the CDs, at least in terms of my environment. All of a sudden I have space where there was none before. And I'm looking at my DVDs, which tend to clutter areas and quickly outgrow their shelving, with a longing for them to be gone as well. Who am I showing all these things off for anyway?

The key to digital download conquering all is ease of delivery. The new Netflix system still isn't quite there - you attach a Netflix box to your TV and your computer and then you log onto their site, choose a movie and watch it on the TV - because people want to do it all with one remote control. The Xbox Marketplace has something very much like that perfect system, where you can sit on your couch and quickly and easily scroll through movies, pick one, wait a few seconds for the download to hit a certain point and then start watching. I blew through all of Survivor: China like this; it was just so easy to get the next episode that I couldn't figure out a good argument to not do it (besides the whole 'Why are you spending a whole night and afternoon watching Survivor?').

Like I said, there are still obstacles. There's the fact that America's internet needs to get faster, and it needs to reach more people. Then there's going to be digital download's own version of the format war, which will be about how stuff is distributed. It is a sale model or is it a rental model? Will it be like some new internet music services, where you pay a monthly fee for access to streams of thousands and thousands of songs? The battle's already begun as Fox has forced Steve Jobs to step off his adamant 'sale only' policy at the iTunes store. The truth is that corporations are going to want to force you to pay to watch their content every single time. Ubiquitous delivery will be only the beginning of all this. That's going to get especially sticky in a world where portable players become more commonplace. I recently bought an Archos 605 Wifi, a wonderful personal video player with 80 gigs of memory and a beautiful 4.3 inch touchscreen, and the device has revolutionized the way I watch things - not least because I can put a dozen movies on this pocket sized device, bring it to a friend's house and plug it into their TV. When digital download is king, the distributors are going to want me to pay to put movies on there, as well as on my TV or other display devices.

While I'm waiting for that final format war to heat up, I look at all the people caught up in this new one and shake my head. In ten years movie discs will be like vinyl - they may still make them, but they'll be for a niche group of collectors. I'll grab a Blu-Ray player when they're dirt cheap, and I'll pick up a new movie here and there, but who wants to invest in an already almost obsolete technology when the next big thing is just on the horizon? The only answer comes from how far off you think that horizon to be.

Count Zarth
01-07-2008, 07:02 PM
HD torrent site FTW.

Fried Meat Ball!
01-07-2008, 07:08 PM
I'm one of the geeks that will buy DVDs. I want the physical media. I want the box art. That's why I have so damn many of them.

Deberg_1990
01-07-2008, 07:11 PM
I'm one of the geeks that will buy DVDs. I want the physical media. I want the box art. That's why I have so damn many of them.


Oh, ill still buy a few as well.

But ive already slowed down quite a bit from just a few years ago. I found most of them just sit there in my cabinet and collect dust.

Fried Meat Ball!
01-07-2008, 07:11 PM
Me

Fried Meat Ball!
01-07-2008, 07:13 PM
too,

Fried Meat Ball!
01-07-2008, 07:14 PM
but

Fried Meat Ball!
01-07-2008, 07:14 PM
that

kstater
01-07-2008, 07:14 PM
Great read.

Fried Meat Ball!
01-07-2008, 07:14 PM
doesn't

Fried Meat Ball!
01-07-2008, 07:14 PM
stop

jiveturkey
01-07-2008, 07:14 PM
Bring it on!

Fried Meat Ball!
01-07-2008, 07:15 PM
me.

Coach
01-07-2008, 07:16 PM
Oh, ill still buy a few as well.

But ive already slowed down quite a bit from just a few years ago. I found most of them just sit there in my cabinet and collect dust.

You could always try to sell them while their value is high.

DaFace
01-07-2008, 07:19 PM
I'm all for an all-digital world, but I always fear that I'm gonna have a drive crash someday and have to deal with redownloading a bunch of crap.

thepascalblaze
01-07-2008, 07:27 PM
10 years is a little optimistic. That internet is a bit further off than that. Your looking for a capability of 20 to 100 million multi gig downloads simulteneously, almost constantly, there isn't going to be that much bandwith in 10 years... or even twenty...

Pay per view sattelite broadcasts and cable movies on demand are underperforming and they are recordable, though they have a start time, but with tivo etc it shouldn't matter.

I'm not jumping into this high def thing, but even if what your talking about were ten years off and and I wanted high def, I would. Ten years is still a long time. It would be like forgoing audio-cassete ownership because you saw cds coming in the mid 80's. It's a long time to wait to get your last laugh.

dj56dt58
01-07-2008, 07:33 PM
why would I feel stupid in 10 ****ing years? Does anybody feel stupid they bought all those vhs last decade? What, I'm not supposed to buy dvds because of something that should happen 10 years from now?

Fried Meat Ball!
01-07-2008, 07:35 PM
x

Silock
01-07-2008, 07:41 PM
Your looking for a capability of 20 to 100 million multi gig downloads simulteneously, almost constantly, there isn't going to be that much bandwith in 10 years... or even twenty...


Yeah, that's pretty much incorrect. There isn't enough in the current wiring, but the service providers will just run more wires, or they'll upgrade current wireless technology to compensate. There will definitely be enough bandwidth.

Halfcan
01-07-2008, 07:49 PM
If you ARE going to buy CD's-make sure they are by Rush-that way you get Awesome lyrics and Art to go with the Badass music.

Snakes and Arrows was the best CD out last year.

Fruit Ninja
01-07-2008, 07:56 PM
I still buy a few dvd's. The classic ones or ones i really like. I got no problems downloading ones to watch and burn. Like i said though, i will buy certain ones. I could give a **** less about HD DVD or Blue Ray. I dont really see that much of a difference to spend 30 bucks on them.

thepascalblaze
01-07-2008, 08:02 PM
Do you really believe they can run that much wire in 10 years? Who is going to pay for that? This is not a new problem. No one wants to pay without garauntees of control of the bandwidth, and that smacks of monopoly. What I said is true and has been for a very long time. The problem is partly technical and partly free market economics.

Considering the line of sight requirements for most wireless, there are issues there as well. I will say, however, with the required digital tv world coming into effect there will be a lot of free radio bandwidth. But they are a ways away from being able to catch people who simply steal content right out of the air with now quaint technology that is piling up in recycling centers as we speak. Descramblers would be everywhere and they wouldn't have anyway of cathing the people stealing it like they can with direct satelite signals.

Enron bamboozled Blockbuster with this same pipedream for years before Blockbuster did their homework and discovered the reality of where we are. Enron was basically just making shit up.

This is a bit like the holy grail of information distrubution. DVD quality feature films will not be able to be distributed with anything close to our current internet,that is, to any and eveyone who wants them when they want them.

10 years is too optimistic.
I grew up in a telecom family, and smart money is on 20 - 25 yrs.

Frazod
01-07-2008, 08:04 PM
I've got between 450 and 500 DVDs. At great expense, I upgraded my VHS tapes to DVDs. No way in hell am I doing it again.

How clear does this shit have to be, anyway? Do I really need to clearly see zits on the faces of people standing in the background of the scene? I remember when regular DVDs were high def. :shake:

Fried Meat Ball!
01-07-2008, 08:06 PM
I've got between 450 and 500 DVDs. At great expense, I upgraded my VHS tapes to DVDs. No way in hell am I doing it again.

How clear does this shit have to be, anyway? Do I really need to clearly see zits on the faces of people standing in the background of the scene? I remember when regular DVDs were high def. :shake:
I had about 600 VHS when I started the switch-over to DVD. With more than 1,200 DVDs now, I have an HD-DVD player, but have no intention of switching my catalog over to HD-DVD. The standard-def DVDs look great on the HD-DVD player (with the upconvert and all), so that's OK.

My biggest problem is that now I have different-sized cases. That pisses me off.

gblowfish
01-07-2008, 08:06 PM
Since I make DVDs for a living, I hope this crap doesn't happen for 20 years. I'll be retired then (I Hope).

The format war will take awhile to shake out. Also, High Def penetration will take a long time, because there's still lots of fine working analog TVs out there, that will show a cable connection. Take a long time for those TVs to die, and be replaced with all high def stuff. I'll bet a lot of you still have an old 13" black and white or TV/DVD combo unit sitting in a bedroom or the kitchen.

Blu Ray will just be for major motion pics for at least another four or five years. Home Blu Ray recorders are still very expensive. It'll be awhile before they drop to the $100-$200 range. I just bought a DVD home recorder for $120.

Backing up a bunch of my VHS stuff.

Deberg_1990
01-07-2008, 08:07 PM
How clear does this shit have to be, anyway? Do I really need to clearly see zits on the faces of people standing in the background of the scene?

Thats another good point. Ive said many times that standard DVD is good enough quality to satisfy the masses or most mainstream buyers.

ceebz
01-07-2008, 08:08 PM
Digital Downloads with copyright protection is the future.

Please.

el borracho
01-07-2008, 08:08 PM
I'm one of the geeks that will buy DVDs. I want the physical media. I want the box art. That's why I have so damn many of them.
Yep. I like the art and I like having something concrete. Of course, take into consideration that I also own about 600 albums on vinyl so the chances are that I'm a real weirdo.

Fried Meat Ball!
01-07-2008, 08:10 PM
Yep. I like the art and I like having something concrete. Of course, take into consideration that I also own about 600 albums on vinyl so the chances are that I'm a real weirdo.
I don't have vinyl... I do, however, have a functioning (and currently hooked up) LaserDisk player that I've used in the past week. I have the original Star Wars trilogy (not the special editions) on Laser. I also have a functioning Betamax player.

Frazod
01-07-2008, 08:12 PM
I had about 600 VHS when I started the switch-over to DVD. With more than 1,200 DVDs now, I have an HD-DVD player, but have no intention of switching my catalog over to HD-DVD. The standard-def DVDs look great on the HD-DVD player (with the upconvert and all), so that's OK.

My biggest problem is that now I have different-sized cases. That pisses me off.

I've found that I have to replace my older DVDs, since they don't play correctly on the HDTV. Luckily, that's only been a small percentage of them.

Fried Meat Ball!
01-07-2008, 08:13 PM
I've found that I have to replace my older DVDs, since they don't play correctly on the HDTV. Luckily, that's only been a small percentage of them.
That happens with any that's not formatted for 16x9. I just switch over to manual control on the TV and fix it.

Deberg_1990
01-07-2008, 08:15 PM
I don't have vinyl... I do, however, have a functioning (and currently hooked up) LaserDisk player that I've used in the past week. I have the original Star Wars trilogy (not the special editions) on Laser. I also have a functioning Betamax player.

I finally broke down and got rid of mine. Got it back in like 1990 i think?

Ive still got about 25 Laserdiscs including the Directors cut of "Aliens" which is like 9 discs...hahahahah

Which Star Wars box set do you have? The THX approved version that came out in the early 90's?

Frazod
01-07-2008, 08:16 PM
That happens with any that's not formatted for 16x9. I just switch over to manual control on the TV and fix it.

Yeah, but the picture is shitty. I've only had to do that about 15 times, and in most every case I've upgraded to a Director's Cut-type DVD, so it didn't really bother me. The last one I upgraded was Goodfellas - well worth the extra money.

Fried Meat Ball!
01-07-2008, 08:20 PM
I finally broke down and got rid of mine. Got it back in like 1990 i think?

Ive still got about 25 Laserdiscs including the Directors cut of "Aliens" which is like 9 discs...hahahahah

Which Star Wars box set do you have? The THX approved version that came out in the early 90's?
Yeah. My brother has "The Definitive Collection". I also have The Godfather Epic, the re-edited, chronological version. Kicks ass.

I'd love that Aliens disk!

Fried Meat Ball!
01-07-2008, 08:20 PM
Yeah, but the picture is shitty. I've only had to do that about 15 times, and in most every case I've upgraded to a Director's Cut-type DVD, so it didn't really bother me. The last one I upgraded was Goodfellas - well worth the extra money.
I've just got way too many. I have a ton that I bought before the 16x9 formatting was commonplace.

Silock
01-07-2008, 08:21 PM
Do you really believe they can run that much wire in 10 years? Who is going to pay for that?

Absolutely. AT&T is doing it right now to compete with the cable companies. They can't use the cable wire, so they're running their own. It's happening all over the US. Still, the future isn't wired. It's going to be wireless. It's already happening in Japan. Their wireless bandwidth is much higher than ours, and it's getting faster.

10 years is too optimistic.
I grew up in a telecom family, and smart money is on 20 - 25 yrs.

My dad is the Director of network engineering for Embarq and was the Director of engineering at Sprint. 20-25 years is way too long. It will be here much, much sooner than that.

Frazod
01-07-2008, 08:24 PM
I've just got way too many. I have a ton that I bought before the 16x9 formatting was commonplace.

I didn't start buying DVDs until 2000, so I don't have a lot of the real old ones.

Deberg_1990
01-07-2008, 08:24 PM
Yeah. My brother has "The Definitive Collection". I also have The Godfather Epic, the re-edited, chronological version. Kicks ass.

I'd love that Aliens disk!

I just looked. I still have my LD player. i thought i sold it in a garage sale? hahah

Yea, that Aliens disc was quite the thing back in the day. I remember paying like $100 for it.

The directors cut is cool. Some of the backstory scenes on the planet are good, but most of the extra scenes are just filler.

I also have the directors cut of "The Abyss". Obviously im a James Cameron geek.

Fried Meat Ball!
01-07-2008, 08:25 PM
I just looked. I still have my LD player. i thought i sold it in a garage sale? hahah

Yea, that Aliens disc was quite the thing back in the day. I remember paying like $100 for it.

The directors cut is cool. Some of the backstory scenes on the planet are good, but most of the extra scenes are just filler.

I also have the directors cut of "The Abyss". Obviously im a James Cameron geek.
I have that Abyss disk.

I've got 30-40 LD overall... a lot of which have been replaced with DVD. Some haven't.

My main reason in keeping that LD player is the Godfather Epic and the original Star Wars.

Fried Meat Ball!
01-07-2008, 08:26 PM
I didn't start buying DVDs until 2000, so I don't have a lot of the real old ones.
I started about 3 years earlier. I actually had DVDs before I had a DVD player.

My first-ever DVD was Metropolis. Suncoast mis-tagged it at $8, so I grabbed it.

Deberg_1990
01-07-2008, 08:30 PM
I think a few of the early DVD's were flippers like LaserDiscs right?

I know i have some early ones that dont even have menus.

Frazod
01-07-2008, 08:31 PM
I think a few of the early DVD's were flippers like LaserDiscs right?

I know i have some early ones that dont even have menus.

I had one of those (The Man Who Would Be King) that wouldn't even play in my new DVD player it was so old. Obviously I replaced that one.

Fried Meat Ball!
01-07-2008, 08:34 PM
I think a few of the early DVD's were flippers like LaserDiscs right?

I know i have some early ones that dont even have menus.
Yeah... my copy of Goodfellas is a flipper.

My LD player actually has a mechanism in it that flips the laser... it does it automatically!!!

mikeyis4dcats.
01-07-2008, 08:39 PM
the average person in the US won't be able to consistently and adeqautely download HD content for many many years.

The US ranks quite low worldwide in internet speeds and bandwith. It's quite pathetic really. The infrastructure costs are high, and as of yet, no one is willing to pony up to improve them to a standard enjoyed by less populous nations.

thepascalblaze
01-07-2008, 09:02 PM
Silock, the at$t wiring has been happening slowly, and will not give the continental U.S. enough banwidth to allow any and every one to download DVD QUALITY MOVIES to each household nightly. It will not happen in ten years. I used to install fiber, splice fiber, and run outside plant fiber for a living.

To clarify... we can download movies now. What I'm saying is, there will not be enough bandwidth in the continental U.S. to supply the entire demand for watching movies with DVD quality downloads, that is, enough supply to render hard copy formats obsolete. That is what this thread is about. I AM saying the reason that the supply side will not meat the entire demand is because there will not be enough bandwidth for that much supply in 10 years. You can ask your dad.

'Hamas' Jenkins
01-07-2008, 09:10 PM
The US spent money developing cellular networks while Europe laid a much more extensive collection of high speed lines that would enable this far more readily.

Granted, data compression technologies like MPEG4 and H264 make a big difference....

However

I just spend the last 4 days downloading 14.5 gigs of the second season of "Dexter" in 720 p. The picture looked great, not quite HD (it was an .mkv file encoded in 5.1), but at least on par with the DVD of the first season (it's hard for an amateur to master video very well).

Once it was here, it was great, but trying to convince ISPs to dedicate enough bandwidth to allow us to regularly swap 25-50 gig files (as a full HD movie would be) is a long way off. Those f*ckers are tight as hell.

mikeyis4dcats.
01-07-2008, 09:13 PM
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/Images/commentarynews/broadbandspeedchart.jpg

JBucc
01-07-2008, 09:15 PM
Even with our shitty internet speeds, you could just download the movie overnight or while your at work.

Something like, Pay for the movie, set a download time to your device so that it doesn't inconvenience you.

mikeyis4dcats.
01-07-2008, 09:18 PM
Even with our shitty internet speeds, you could just download the movie overnight or while your at work.

Something like, Pay for the movie, set a download time to your device so that it doesn't inconvenience you.

except an HD movie could be 40-80GB, and would take several DAYS if not more to download for the average HIGHSPEED user, let alone the millions still on dial up.

JBucc
01-07-2008, 09:22 PM
except an HD movie could be 40-80GB, and would take several DAYS if not more to download for the average HIGHSPEED user, let alone the millions still on dial up.HD movies don't take up that much space I don't think, Blu-Rays are only 50 GB or thereabouts, and they don't use nearly all the disk. And we're not going to flip a switch and stop making physical media. If you're still using dial up or have a slower service, then you'll have to wait.

Silock
01-07-2008, 09:23 PM
Silock, the at$t wiring has been happening slowly, and will not give the continental U.S. enough banwidth to allow any and every one to download DVD QUALITY MOVIES to each household nightly. It will not happen in ten years. I used to install fiber, splice fiber, and run outside plant fiber for a living.

I agree, which is why it will be supplanted by wireless. The technology is almost there. Just forget about wired for the time being, as that's not the real future. It's more of a band-aid/stepping stone to higher bandwidth. However, the capability to deliver fiber to every home in America isn't that far away.

To clarify... we can download movies now. What I'm saying is, there will not be enough bandwidth in the continental U.S. to supply the entire demand for watching movies with DVD quality downloads, that is, enough supply to render hard copy formats obsolete. That is what this thread is about. I AM saying the reason that the supply side will not meat the entire demand is because there will not be enough bandwidth for that much supply in 10 years. You can ask your dad.

That's just not true. For one, I'm not talking about an instantaneous download, but downloading such content at an acceptable speed. With proper server-side processing and bandwidth capability or a good P2P connection, you can already easily download many gigabytes of information in just a few hours. In 10 years, the technology will easily be there to get this same amount of information downloaded in a reasonable amount of time. In fact, the technology is already here. It's just a matter of deployment.

Two, you're assuming that compression technologies won't advance. Storing more data into a smaller space is always happening. Of course, as this happens, the everything is going to continue to multiply in terms of how much space it takes up, so it could be a wash. But, let's just assume that we're still talking about a finite amount of space in a HD-DVD or Blu-Ray disc. I'm confident that compression technology will substantially reduce the data footprint.

Just take a look at this article. http://www.convergedigest.com/bp-ttp/bp1.asp?ID=263&ctgy=Market

The preliminary stuff is already being deployed and will most certainly be deployed in 10 years in a capacity that will enable downloads of HD content in a quick enough manner that people won't mind giving up their hard copies, even though they'll still exist.

Mr. Laz
01-07-2008, 09:25 PM
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/Images/commentarynews/broadbandspeedchart.jpg
that's crazy ..... but you gotta figure that since japan is smaller than california in square footage that it's gotta be easier to do for them than it is for people that have tons of cable laying around "between" end users.

mikeyis4dcats.
01-07-2008, 09:26 PM
that's crazy ..... but you gotta figure that since japan is smaller than california in square footage that it's gotta be easier to do for them than it is for people that have tons of cable laying around "between" end users.

therein lies the problem. to get the same kind of infrastructure less populous and more compact countries enjoy will cost BILLIONS. And no one is willing to foot the bill.

Silock
01-07-2008, 09:28 PM
except an HD movie could be 40-80GB, and would take several DAYS if not more to download for the average HIGHSPEED user, let alone the millions still on dial up.

An 80 gb file would take roughly 46 hours to download if you averaged 500k/s downstream. In 10 years, 500k/s is going to look like what dial-up looks like to us now. We'll just point and laugh. You'll be able to download HD content in a very reasonable amount of time.

'Hamas' Jenkins
01-07-2008, 09:30 PM
HD content

Is a relative term.

Silock
01-07-2008, 09:30 PM
therein lies the problem. to get the same kind of infrastructure less populous and more compact countries enjoy will cost BILLIONS. And no one is willing to foot the bill.

It's all about the cost vs benefit analysis. Someone will eventually foot the bill because they'll figure out a way to get trillions in revenue out of it.

mikeyis4dcats.
01-07-2008, 09:31 PM
An 80 gb file would take roughly 46 hours to download if you averaged 500k/s downstream. In 10 years, 500k/s is going to look like what dial-up looks like to us now. We'll just point and laugh. You'll be able to download HD content in a very reasonable amount of time.

Sorry, but I don't think just a hair under 2 days is reasonable to download a movie in 2008, and I'm pretty sure that patience will be much less in 10 years.

ChiefFan31
01-07-2008, 09:34 PM
Yep. I like the art and I like having something concrete. Of course, take into consideration that I also own about 600 albums on vinyl so the chances are that I'm a real weirdo.

That is bad ass is what it is.

A few years ago, I just kinda assumed that CD's were superior over those 'old' vinyl records. Turns out that is not the case. Although not many but the hardcore rock a 2 channel setup with a nice record player.




About the thread subject. They have been saying this for years now...and it's still some time off. I will go ahead and keep stocking up my HD-DVD and Blu-Ray library and not feel one bit bad about it.

xbarretx
01-07-2008, 09:34 PM
HD torrent site FTW.

dude, thats some serious bandwidth. what would that be like 15 GB d/l's?

Silock
01-07-2008, 09:35 PM
Sorry, but I don't think just a hair under 2 days is reasonable to download a movie in 2008, and I'm pretty sure that patience will be much less in 10 years.

I didn't say it was reasonable. I'm just giving everyone a frame of reference in today's terms. 2 days for an 80 gb file is pretty reasonable. However, 80gb in 2 days will be unreasonable in 10 years. You don't need to download 80 gb of information to watch a high quality movie right now. You only need 3 - 4 GB to get a very pristine HD movie. That doesn't take much more than a couple of hours.

irishjayhawk
01-07-2008, 09:43 PM
This is what I've been telling people. And it's especially true with the new iPhones and Touches. Have an HD quality download, host it, access it anywhere on anything...

jidar
01-07-2008, 09:53 PM
I work for a local telephone company and this guy is right on the money.

I also see some of you in this thread saying that the bandwidth wont be here, but you're wrong. The bandwidth required is a fraction of what you think it is because of compression. Mpeg4 compressed HD is under 10MB/sec requirement. We can get two to three times that out to 3 miles distance from a telephone office RIGHT NOW with ADSL2+ over your normal phone cables and we've been giving people Internet over this type of connection for 2 to 3 years now. The only thing slowing us down from rolling out IPtv on this is the middleware and set top boxes, the vendors are still working out the standards and kinks in their implementation but we're working on it, it's the biggest project on my plate at the moment.

Of course a videophile isn't going to like the quality since it will look better than standard DVDs do now but not quite as good as HD. 95% of people wont notice or care though.. and just think, this is what we can put in your house today, are you trying to tell me that 10 years down the road people aren't going to be able to get movies in their house because of bandwidth? That's so far from the truth.
The fact is, 10 years is probably a conservative estimate. It wont surprise me if 5 years from now physical video disks are dealing with the same problems audio disks are dealing with right now. In 5 years, the #1 way for people to get movies will be online, you can bank on that.

mcan
01-08-2008, 02:08 AM
Here's what I think they ought to do.

HD movie kiosks. It's a vending machine in a mall that has a server in it with every movie you can think of. Put in your credit card and plug in your MoviePod and for 10 dollars you can grab a movie off of the server. It's just a file transfer, so it only takes a few minutes. When you get home, instead of a DVD player, you have a MovieBank that syncs with your MoviePod to upload whatever new stuff is on there. You can keep 10 or so movies on your Pod so you can watch them wherever, but your collection stays on your Bank (which is expandable). Everything is copy protected and H264. Of course, your M.Bank can also connect via wireless internet to download from the MovieBank servers directly, but that takes days instead of minutes. But, you can download up to 4 movies at a time and still use the hard drive to watch movies that are already on your system.