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banyon
02-24-2008, 10:27 AM
CNN right now

banyon
02-24-2008, 10:35 AM
basically compared Obama/McCain to Dole/Clinton 96

Mr. Kotter
02-24-2008, 11:31 AM
basically compared Obama/McCain to Dole/Clinton 96

Eh....McCain is more likely to attract independent/Centrists than Dole did; and Obama doesn't yet have the experience/record of Clinton (which can be both good and bad)....

If Obama can win a significant share (half or more) of the white middle class vote, he has a good chance of winning; if he can't, he will lose to McCain (short of a major gaff or health issues.)

For McCain, he has to appear healthy, and have nothing else come of bimbo-gate. His choice for VP will be important because of the inescapable concerns regarding his age.

BucEyedPea
02-24-2008, 11:33 AM
Eh....McCain is more likely to attract independent/Centrists; and Obama doesn't yet have the experience/record of Clinton (which can be both good and bad)....
From what I've been hearing on tv, the greater proportion of independents have been voting in the Dem nomination process something like 4-1 for Obama iirc. Even if some did go to McCain.

HolmeZz
02-24-2008, 11:36 AM
McCain hasn't been getting as much indy support in this election cycle, and that'll probably continue to be the case if he keeps running to the Right.

Mr. Kotter
02-24-2008, 11:37 AM
From what I've been hearing on tv, the greater proportion of independents have been voting in the Dem nomination process something like 4-1 for Obama iirc. Even if some did go to McCain.

How many of those independents are conservative-leaning and are voting for Obama, for the purpose of defeating Hillary....to give McCain (what they perceive to be) a "weaker" general election opponent? :shrug: (FWIW, I think that could be a miscalculation on their part, and could backfire.)

I suspect it's more than many think....guess we will see. Although the Bradley effect may confuse the issue somewhat.

McCain hasn't been getting as much indy support in this election cycle, and that'll probably continue to be the case if he keeps running to the Right.

He's gotten pretty good independent support, relatively speaking. Besides, in a general election, with two stark choices....that could change pretty dramatically. Guess we'll see.

BucEyedPea
02-24-2008, 11:44 AM
How many of those independents are conservative-leaning and are voting for Obama, for the purpose of defeating Hillary....to give McCain (what they perceive to be) a "weaker" general election opponent? :shrug:

I suspect it's more than many think....guess we will see. Although the Bradley effect may confuse the issue somewhat.



In a general election, with two stark choices....that could change pretty dramatically. Guess we'll see.

Well, I don't know what the Bradley effect is, but I think it's implausible that enough Indies would be doing that for that purpose. For one it makes no logical sense when they could just steam roll things for someone in the GOP. Hint: They're all hawks and Paul was too much of a longshot.

Exit polls haven't shown this either, not that those are perfect, but they provide some indication.

FWIW, my SiL is a Pub who switched to Dem to caucus for Obama in Maine to defeat Hillary, but not all because she wants McCain or any other hawk Pub to win either. She's sick of the war nonsense. My brother, a card carrying NRA member, said he may even vote for Obama holding his nose. He hates the idea of it, and I do too, but that's what he said. GOP has noone but themselves to blame.

BucEyedPea
02-24-2008, 11:48 AM
FWIW Scneider who parses polls and elections on CNN ( member of AEI btw, which I find odd) discussed poll results regarding the "surge is a success" by party breakdown. The improvement in polls was among Pubs ( and not all of them, just mostly there). It didn't budge the numbers with Dems or Independents. Just a tiny amount with Indies. It was mostly a GOP phenomena.

Mr. Kotter
02-24-2008, 11:53 AM
Well, I don't know what the Bradley effect is, but I think it's implausible that enough Indies would be doing that for that purpose. For one it makes no logical sense when they could just steam roll things for someone in the GOP. Hint: They're all hawks and Paul was too much of a longshot.

Exit polls haven't shown this either, not that those are perfect, but they provide some indication.

FWIW, my SiL is a Pub who switched to Dem to caucus for Obama in Maine to defeat Hillary, but not all because she wants McCain or any other hawk Pub to win either. She's sick of the war nonsense. My brother, a card carrying NRA member, said he may even vote for Obama holding his nose. He hates the idea of it, and I do too, but that's what he said. GOP has noone but themselves to blame.

You are obsessed with Iraq; most Americans are not. Not at the moment anyway; though things could change between now and November....Iraq will not be the deciding issue in this election. McGovern's supporters were sure Vietnam would get George elected in '72 too.

The Bradley effect is the tendency of some voters to say and poll that they will vote for a black candidate, but who change their minds once in the booth (Tom Bradley's runs for California Governor.)

Right leaning indies, and some Republicans who played the game your SiL did (even if not for the same reason)....could have a hard time voting for Obama come November--especially if the Republicans are successfully able to paint him as a "liberal" rather than the "centrist" his rhetoric would suggest he is.

BucEyedPea
02-24-2008, 12:03 PM
You are obsessed with Iraq; most Americans are not. Not at the moment anyway; though things could change between now and November....Iraq will not be the deciding issue in this election. McGovern's supporters were sure Vietnam would get George elected in '72 too.
No I'm not obsessed with Iraq alone. I am obsessed with unecesary wars aka more Iraqs to come as well as Iraq. I am actually more concerned with Iran right now. Even Pakistan ( a legit concern instead we target Iran). And like it or not, it is still a main issue. It's only off the radar more as all's quiet with surge right now. But people are not that stupid to figure out that a bad economy stems from this to an extent as well: the inflation, the cost of food. No doubt healthcare and the economy as also issues which they are for me as well. I just think more war, which is what McCain is promising does not bode well for those issues either...including spending.

Right leaning indies, and some Republicans who played the game your SiL did (even if not for the same reason)....could have a hard time voting for Obama come November--especially if the Republicans are successfully able to paint him as a "liberal" rather than the "centrist" his rhetoric would suggest he is.
Well I just talked with a couple more indies/moderates. One my hairdresser who is neither Pub/Dem and another was an appraiser who was neither as well. They despise McCain because of his war views...and they don't care about Obama being liberal on the other issues either. Both felt the war was an affect the economy. They're right.

My 3 doctors 2 out of three are Indies, feel the same. The other is a military brat who leans Pub feels the same way. I ask people regularly...and it seems to match what I'm hearing on tv. Must be where you and I live.

Mr. Kotter
02-24-2008, 12:11 PM
No I'm not obsessed with Iraq alone. I am obsessed with unecesary wars aka more Iraqs to come as well as Iraq. I am actually more concerned with Iran right now. Even Pakistan ( a legit concern instead we target Iran). And like it or not, it is still a main issue. It's only off the radar more as all's quiet with surge right now. But people are not that stupid to figure out that a bad economy stems from this to an extent as well: the inflation, the cost of food. No doubt healthcare and the economy as also issues which they are for me as well. I just think more war, which is what McCain is promising does not bode well for those issues either...including spending.

Well I just talked with a couple more indies/moderates. One my hairdresser who is neither Pub/Dem and another was an appraiser who was neither as well. They despise McCain because of his war views...and they don't care about Obama being liberal on the other issues either. Both felt the war was an affect the economy. They're right.

My 3 doctors 2 out of three or Indies, feel the same. The other is a military brat who leans Pub feels the same way. I ask people regularly...and it seems to match what I'm hearing on tv. Must be where you and I live.

Apparently, you hang out with a bunch of pacifists. :p

Anyway, Iraq is NOT the main issue presently; it simply is not. All the polling says it's the economy. Issues like healthcare and immigration are even challenging it--at least among ALL Americans (not just Dems, or isolationist Libertarian types.) That could change; if it does, you could be right.

OTOH, the stark contrast between McCain's experience and leadership on foreign policy, and Obama's relative inexperience and what many will consider naivete' on defense and security issues....will push many of the less pacifistic and isolationists types to McCain. Polls has a difficult time gauging the commitment voters feel for issues; "opposition" to finishing the job in Iraq and to the WOT...is much softer than opponents of the war want to admit. Ironically, if things go badly (an escalation of violence or terrorism,) that could actually hurt Obama (that's where Hillary may have been better able to stand against McCain.)

Regardless, it's a long time until November. We won't have a real grip on the "real" polling....and direction of the general election decision....until after the conventions and Labor Day, really.

BucEyedPea
02-24-2008, 12:26 PM
Apparently, you hang out with a bunch of pacifists. :p
Nope, they're intelligent middle-class professionals and not liberal either.

The sentiment in this country is that change is wanted regarding how the conitnuing WoT is executed. That is where change is wanted too. It's still up there within the top 4 and it relates to the economy. We inflate our way through wars to pay for them.

McCain is weak on immigration too. Obama not much better.

Ultra Peanut
02-24-2008, 01:07 PM
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