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View Full Version : USA Today/Gallup Poll: Obama takes a national commanding lead


BigRedChief
02-25-2008, 12:24 PM
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-02-25-poll-prez_N.htm

<TABLE id=topTools cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Poll respondents: Obama will be nominee</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
By Susan Page, USA TODAY

The air of inevitability that once surrounded Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Rodham Clinton has shifted to challenger Barack Obama. In a new national USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, those surveyed predict by 73%-20% that Obama will be the Democratic nominee.

Democratic voters hold that view by nearly 3-1.
The Illinois senator has surged to a double-digit lead nationally over Clinton, walloping her 51%-39% among Democrat voters as their preference for the presidential nomination. The poll of 2,012 adults was taken Thursday through Sunday.

His 13-point lead his first outside the survey's margin of error is at odds with a separate Gallup tracking poll. Taken Friday through Sunday, it gave the Illinois senator a narrow 47%-45% lead over Clinton.

Both candidates are stumping for next week's primaries in Ohio and Texas states that even Bill Clinton has described as must-wins for his wife's candidacy to have a chance of prevailing.


Among Republicans, presumptive nominee John McCain swamps former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee 61%-23%. Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former ambassador Alan Keyes are each at 4%.

The poll has a margin of error of +/ 2 percentage points. The subsample of 1,009 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents has an error margin of 3 points; the Republican sample of 829 has a margin of 4 points.

In prospective general-election match-ups, McCain beats Clinton 50%-46% while McCain and Obama are essentially tied. McCain is at 48%, Obama 47%.

banyon
02-25-2008, 12:37 PM
Alan Keyes has caught Ron Paul? Probably with a budget of 20 bucks too. Sad.

patteeu
02-25-2008, 12:38 PM
I wonder which one would end up being a better matchup from the pov of John McCain. I've heard conflicting opinions on this and my gut has been telling me that it's better to run against Hillary, but I'm starting to have my doubts.

Ultra Peanut
02-25-2008, 12:41 PM
Hey Cochise, et al: NOW you can bank on national polls. Who's inevitable now, bitches?

MurphDog
02-25-2008, 12:50 PM
[URL]In prospective general-election match-ups, McCain beats Clinton 50%-46% while McCain and Obama are essentially tied. McCain is at 48%, Obama 47%.

I just wish this wasnt the BEST this country has to offer, I think we have better politicians (geez if that isnt an oxymoron) than these on both sides of the aisle.

Ultra Peanut
02-25-2008, 12:54 PM
I just wish this wasnt the BEST this country has to offer, I think we have better politicians (geez if that isnt an oxymoron) than these on both sides of the aisle.Don't just dog 'em, dawg. Offer up your idea of better candidates.

htismaqe
02-25-2008, 02:06 PM
Among Republicans, presumptive nominee John McCain swamps former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee 61%-23%. Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former ambassador Alan Keyes are each at 4%.

So you're saying there's a chance...

jAZ
02-25-2008, 02:44 PM
For the first time in a LOOONG time, even Republicans are saying that the Dems finally got a primary right.

I guess not everyone can be happy that the Dems go into a general election with the most appealing candidate.

Mr. Kotter
02-25-2008, 02:50 PM
For the first time in a LOOONG time, even Republicans are saying that the Dems finally got a primary right.

I guess not everyone can be happy that the Dems go into a general election with the most appealing candidate.

Appealing? :spock:

McGovern was more appealing than Nixon in '72. Remember how that turned out, don't you? :rolleyes:

Yes, personal appeal can help....but issues will ultimately decide the election among thinking voters. McCain's record (good and bad) is there for all to see. Obama will have to convince us that his performance will match his rhetoric, because the "record" for him is much more sparse. I think he can pull it off....but McCain won't be easy to defeat.

banyon
02-25-2008, 02:56 PM
Appealing? :spock:

McGovern was more appealing than Nixon in '72. Remember how that turned out, don't you? :rolleyes:

Yes, personal appeal can help....but issues will ultimately decide the election among thinking voters. McCain's record (good and bad) is there for all to see. Obama will have to convince us that his performance will match his rhetoric, because the "record" for him is much more sparse. I think he can pull it off....but McCain won't be easy to defeat.

Are you typing this with a straight face? 35-40% on both sides have their minds made up. The 10-15% in the middle who vote on "who they'd rather have a beer with" or "who would i rather date" have been deciding elections since 1960. 72' was an aberration in the trendlines due to an incredibly divisive issue (Vietnam).

Mr. Kotter
02-25-2008, 03:25 PM
Are you typing this with a straight face? 35-40% on both sides have their minds made up. The 10-15% in the middle who vote on "who they'd rather have a beer with" or "who would i rather date" have been deciding elections since 1960. 72' was an aberration in the trendlines due to an incredibly divisive issue (Vietnam).

I'd say it breaks down more like this:

a bit more than 30% will always vote Dem
a bit less than 30% will always vote Rep
10-15% vote....as you indicate, on personal appeal, rather than substance.

IMO, there is literally...25-30% of the public who can vote for either party, depending on the platform, specifics on the issues, and....yes, personal appeal of the candidates. For that 25-30%, issues is most commonly the "most important factor" in how they decide to vote. THESE are the folks that will decide the election.

Pollsters and political scientists will tell you this if you listen, and look closely at the demographics. In the past 40-50 years....Americans have moved away from partisan identification toward independent and centrist positions. The so-called culture war, the rancor and acrimony of ideological politics, and the culture of negatism and cynicism that partisanship breeds has driven away voters from both parties. As a result, self-identified "independents" now constitute the largest "group" of voters. Some vote primarily on "personal appeal"--but it's less than 1 in 4 of them.

Are these 25-30% of voters who are independent, but who claim to vote on substantive matters (platform, issues) all deep-thinkers who carefully analyze every position on every issue? No. Are they single-issue voters, say on abortion or gay rights? No. What many of them do, is they pick the 3-4 issues that are most important (personally, or by virtue of the priority the candidates have placed on them) and they pick a candidate based on those 3-4 issues. If neither candidate has a clear edge, then maybe personal appeal will play a bigger role. This election, it appears, the choice will be pretty stark though. More likely though, they'll hold their nose.....grit their teeth....and vote for the lesser of two evils. OTOH, some may indeed choose to "sit out" in protest....which is their right (they better not want to complain later though.)

That is, unless they are the type who as kids "took their ball and went home" when they began to lose at game with the neighborhood kids. THOSE voters will be voting "third" party.

;)

jAZ
02-25-2008, 04:18 PM
Appealing? :spock:

McGovern was more appealing than Nixon in '72. Remember how that turned out, don't you? :rolleyes:

Since you decided to non-sequitur my post, I'll shoot right back atcha on your's...

....but issues will ultimately decide the election among thinking voters.
ROFL @ conflating "decide the election among thinking voters" as if thinking voters encompass the electorate.

wazu
02-25-2008, 07:11 PM
It seems like Obama "opens up a commanding 14-16 point lead" every other day via some new-fangled poll, yet Rasmussen Reports continues to show a neck-and-neck race.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

Logical
02-25-2008, 07:28 PM
I just wish this wasnt the BEST this country has to offer, I think we have better politicians (geez if that isnt an oxymoron) than these on both sides of the aisle.


I certainly won't say this is the best and the brightest, but who would you suggest or do you just post to dog the candidates and posters?

DaFace
02-25-2008, 09:56 PM
It seems like Obama "opens up a commanding 14-16 point lead" every other day via some new-fangled poll, yet Rasmussen Reports continues to show a neck-and-neck race.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

A Gallup poll is "new-fangled?" :spock:

I usually follow USA Today's poll tracker to get a pretty good feel for what's going on, though the poll they're talking about here doesn't seem to be on there yet.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/poll-tracker.htm

Mr. Kotter
02-25-2008, 10:06 PM
Since you decided to non-sequitur my post....

Your post says Dems have selected the most appealing candidate. I agree they have...based on personal appeal. I'm saying appealing doesn't always win; Nixon was less "appealing" than McGovern in most ways. Yet he won.

You wouldn't know a non-sequitur if it bit you in the ass....apparently. :doh!:

BigRedChief
02-27-2008, 05:55 AM
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/26/schneider.poll/index.html

Obama tops new national polls


<LI class=cnnhiliteheader>Story Highlights
Three polls show Barack Obama beating Hillary Clinton nationally
One poll shows Obama with the best chance of beating John McCain
Polls: Independents give McCain a solid lead over ClintonBy Bill Schneider
CNN chief political analyst

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Three national polls of Democrats show Sen. Barack Obama isthe front-runner for the nomination. But what's behind this latest momentum?

There's growing evidence that Obama is seen as more electable than Sen. Hillary Clinton.
If you average the "poll of polls" -- AP-IPSOS, USA Today/Gallup and CBS/New York Times -- Obama leads Clinton 50 percent to 40 percent, with 10 percent unsure.

Here's something Democrats agree on even more: In two different polls, around 70 percent of Democrats polled believe Obama will get their party's nomination.
When Democrats were asked about the general election, the New York Times-CBS News poll showed Obama had the best chance of beating Sen. John McCain -- 59 percent to Clinton's 28 percent.

And it's not just Democrats.
The USA Today-Gallup poll asked Republicans which Democrat would McCain have a better chance of beating.
The answer: Clinton (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/candidates/#1746) 66 percent, Obama 18 percent.
Republicans are just itching to run against her. Her response? She's heard it all before.

"I hear all these folks talking about who is or isn't electable. Well, they said the same thing about me when I started running in New York. ... You know, nobody would vote for me, good grief. I was wasting my time and my money," Clinton recently said. "But I trust the voters, and frankly that's who matters."
All three national polls asked voters the electability question in a general election matchup.

They show Clinton in a dead heat with McCain -- both coming in with 46 percent.

Obama (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/candidates/#1918), meanwhile, leads McCain by seven points -- 49 to 42 percent.

So why does Obama do better? Here's his answer:
"It's a choice between going into the general election with Republicans and independents already united against us, or running with a campaign that has already united Americans of all parties around the agenda for change. Now that's the choice," Obama has said.
Independents are crucial swing voters. They give McCain a solid lead over Clinton, according to the New York Times-CBS News poll. But independents abandon McCain for Obama.

If Obama's the alternative, McCain's support among independents drops from 52 percent to 36 percent.
The difference in electability looks small, and neither Democrat looks like a sure winner or a sure loser.
But the belief that Obama is more electable is taking hold.