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View Full Version : GOP continues to shrink as people flee the party of war


Taco John
03-02-2008, 11:11 AM
Partisan Trends
Party ID: Dem 41.5% GOP 31.8%


Sunday, March 02, 2008

As the public image of the Democratic Party shifted from Congress to the Presidential campaign trail, the number of Democrats in the United States has soared. In fact, during the month of February, the Democrat’s numerical advantage over the Republican Party grew to the highest level ever measured by Rasmussen Reports.

In February, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats jumped to 41.5%, the highest total on record. Just 31.8% consider themselves to be Republicans. The partisan gap—a 9.7 percentage point advantage for the Democrats—is by far the largest it has ever been. The previous high was a 6.9 point edge for the Democrats in December 2006. Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based upon telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002.

The 9.7 percentage point advantage for Democrats is up from a 5.6 point advantage a month ago and a 2.1 point advantage two months ago. The surge for the Democrats is especially notable because it reversed a modest trend in the GOP direction that unfolded over much of calendar year 2007 (see history from January 2004 to present).

The gains for the Democrats were especially strong among women. In February, 46% of women considered themselves to be Democrats, up from 40% in December. The number of women identifying themselves as Republicans fell from 33% to 29% during that same time frame.

Among men, 36% were Republicans in December and 35% said the same in February. The number of men who are Democrats increased from 33% in December to 36% in February.

Data for February shows that 40% of adults under 30 are Democrats while just 27% now identify with the GOP. Republicans trail among all age groups but do best among forty-somethings where the gap is just four percentage points (38% Democrat, 34% Republican).

Democrats have a huge advantage among those who earn less than $40,000 annually and a two-percentage point edge among those in the $40,000 to $75,000 range. In December, Republicans had a five-point advantage among that income bracket.

Democrats currently enjoy an eighteen-point advantage among retired Americans, a thirteen-point edge among those who work for the government, and a seven-point lead among those who work for someone in the private sector. Republicans retain a four-point lead among entrepreneurs—those who are self-employed or own their own business.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Investors are Republicans, 37% are Democrats. In December, those figures were 40% Republican, 32% Democrat.

These results are based upon tracking surveys of 15,000 adults per month. The margin of sampling error is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence. Please keep in mind that figures reported in this article are for all adults, not Likely Voters.

In 2004, the Democrats began the year with a 2.3 percentage point edge over the GOP. That grew to 4.0 points by March before moving in the Republican direction for the rest of the year. By Election Day in 2004, the edge for Democrats was a mere 1.6 percentage points.

In 2006, the Democrats began the year with just a 1.6 percentage point advantage. That grew to 6.1 percentage points by November.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows the race for the White House remains close. Democrats start the season with an advantage in the Electoral College.

Democrats continue to have a significant advantage on ten key issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports and lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/partisan_trends

Taco John
03-02-2008, 11:16 AM
This doesn't suprise me at all. Both my father and father in law are typical conservative voters who I've heard talking about staying home or maybe even voting for Obama. I would be completely shocked if my Dad voted for a Democrat. It's pretty well unprecedented. But one thing is for sure: he's not going to vote for McCain. There's even talk that Idaho might go to a Democrat for the first time in who knows how long. Apparently a lot of the Mormons there were turned off by the bashing of Romney that McCain did -- and were especially turned off by the bashing of their religion his mother did on Hardball.

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irishjayhawk
03-02-2008, 11:24 AM
This doesn't suprise me at all. Both my father and father in law are typical conservative voters who I've heard talking about staying home or maybe even voting for Obama. I would be completely shocked if my Dad voted for a Democrat. It's pretty well unprecedented. But one thing is for sure: he's not going to vote for McCain. There's even talk that Idaho might go to a Democrat for the first time in who knows how long. Apparently a lot of the Mormons there were turned off by the bashing of Romney that McCain did -- and were especially turned off by the bashing of their religion his mother did on Hardball.

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If they consider that bashing, I wonder what South Park was.

MurphDog
03-03-2008, 12:10 PM
Please keep in mind that figures reported in this article are for all adults, not Likely Voters.

I would say your thread title is a bit misleading

And sorry but your father and father in law are not conservatives if they plan to vote for Obama - they undecided flip flopping wishy washy voters...

Pitt Gorilla
03-03-2008, 12:25 PM
I would say your thread title is a bit misleading

And sorry but your father and father in law are not conservatives if they plan to vote for Obama - they undecided flip flopping wishy washy voters...
Yeah, you probably know TJ's family better than he does.

MurphDog
03-03-2008, 12:28 PM
Yeah, you probably know TJ's family better than he does.

I know they arent, because any true conservative wouldnt vote for Obama or Hillary - it would be like someone saying I am a true liberal but I dont care for Obama or Hillary so I am going with McCain. True conservatives wouldnt make such a ridiculous vote if they really held conservative views.

Its like being a so called "Chiefs" fan but pulling for Denver in the playoffs - its just asinine

alanm
03-03-2008, 12:31 PM
I'd cross over and vote for Hillary tomorrow if I was voting in Ohio or Texas. :D

Pitt Gorilla
03-03-2008, 12:31 PM
I know they arent, because any true conservative wouldnt vote for Obama or Hillary - it would be like someone saying I am a true liberal but I dont care for Obama or Hillary so I am going with McCain. True conservatives wouldnt make such a ridiculous vote if they really held conservative views.

Its like being a so called "Chiefs" fan but pulling for Denver in the playoffs - its just asinineWould a "True Conservative" vote for McCain? How about W?

Oh, and I know of a few people who I would consider "true liberals" who really like McCain.

StcChief
03-03-2008, 12:38 PM
I'd cross over and vote for Hillary tomorrow if I was voting in Ohio or Texas. :Dthat was my strategy in MO.... and to think the great minds in the young republican party had to have a meeting to decide this :rolleyes:

MurphDog
03-03-2008, 12:40 PM
Would a "True Conservative" vote for McCain? How about W?

Oh, and I know of a few people who I would consider "true liberals" who really like McCain.

conservatives would vote for Bush over McCain before Bush went on tilt with spending etc this last term. McCain is a fairly liberal republican based on his views.

I could see where some liberals would like McCain, he is fairly liberal as far as republicans go.

Pitt Gorilla
03-03-2008, 12:42 PM
conservatives would vote for Bush over McCain before Bush went on tilt with spending etc this last term. McCain is a fairly liberal republican based on his views.

I could see where some liberals would like McCain, he is fairly liberal as far as republicans go.Would a "True Conservative" vote for McCain?

MurphDog
03-03-2008, 12:43 PM
This one wont

Pitt Gorilla
03-03-2008, 12:46 PM
This one wontOnce again, not what I asked. Could someone who votes for McCain be a "True Conservative?"

MurphDog
03-03-2008, 12:47 PM
No - you could but it would only be a vote against democrats, but not to necessarily push true conservative values - just some conservative values.

Pitt Gorilla
03-03-2008, 12:57 PM
No - you could but it would only be a vote against democrats, but not to necessarily push true conservative values - just some conservative values.Could a true conservative, then, also vote for Obama as a vote against a "liberal" Republican candidate? Or is it just those people who should be considered "undecided flip flopping wishy washy voters?"

MurphDog
03-03-2008, 01:06 PM
you can vote however you want to but now your talking about a change in context from the threads originator

Conservatives tend to be republicans and for a conservative to go over the top and vote for a liberal just insures that conservative values take a step backwards for 4 to maybe 8 years or more - just cant see where a conservative would jump and down with excitement over that.

Pitt Gorilla
03-03-2008, 01:09 PM
you can vote however you want to but now your talking about a change in context from the threads originator

Conservatives tend to be republicans and for a conservative to go over the top and vote for a liberal just insures that conservative values take a step backwards for 4 to maybe 8 years or more - just cant see where a conservative would jump and down with excitement over that.I think the opposite could be true. If McCain wins, it's most probably 8 years before a "true conservative" could be elected to represent the party. If he loses, Reps have a shot to reflect, reorganize, and nominate a "TC" in four years.

MurphDog
03-03-2008, 01:14 PM
If McCain gets elected conservative values will take a back seat for a very long time - unless a miracle happens - the issue is how many more entitlements will be handed out by democrats in that time period and how hard will it be for a conservative to come in to power when so many people are stuck on a government nipple

BucEyedPea
03-03-2008, 02:50 PM
I would say your thread title is a bit misleading

And sorry but your father and father in law are not conservatives if they plan to vote for Obama - they undecided flip flopping wishy washy voters...

Well my brother is a card carrying NRA member and a conservative and his wife is a Republican. He's talking about voting for Obama holding his nose and his wife changed her registration to caucus for him just so Hillary wouldn't be the other choice. And I'm a conservative, a real one though....not a neo-conservative....and it's a remote possibility for me too. The lesser of two evils is still evil. I'd agree but we'll see how things develop. If I can vote 3p in way to ensure a NeoCon defeat of McCain then I'll do that.

BucEyedPea
03-03-2008, 02:52 PM
If McCain gets elected conservative values will take a back seat for a very long time - unless a miracle happens - the issue is how many more entitlements will be handed out by democrats in that time period and how hard will it be for a conservative to come in to power when so many people are stuck on a government nipple

Precisely my reason in trying to ensure his defeat. It will destroy the party if he wins, which is now more like democrats...hawk democrats. (1960
radicals calling themselves conservatives) It is very important to lose a battle if it means a better chance of winning the war. ( not the WoT but the war for our liberty and Constitutional govt.)

Cave Johnson
03-03-2008, 02:52 PM
that was my strategy in MO.... and to think the great minds in the young republican party had to have a meeting to decide this :rolleyes:

Hey, I call shenanigans. No fair.

BucEyedPea
03-03-2008, 02:56 PM
the issue is how many more entitlements will be handed out by democrats in that time period and how hard will it be for a conservative to come in to power when so many people are stuck on a government nipple

Well, I watched Geraldo's show on Fox last night, which I rarely do. He even said that the "Dream Act" is a longshot to pass anyways.* And we may get more socialized insurance with a McCain. I mean Romney passed it in Mass. So there is still a congress there, even if more Dems.



* I didn't research that but it's what he said. I'd have to hear more as to why.

Taco John
03-03-2008, 03:06 PM
I would say your thread title is a bit misleading

And sorry but your father and father in law are not conservatives if they plan to vote for Obama - they undecided flip flopping wishy washy voters...


Your characterization of my father and father in law matters very little and misses the entire point. These are gentlemen who aren't very political, but consistently vote for Republicans. They are both turned off by McCain, but are finding Obama's message appealing. So whatever you want to say about whether they are hard core conservatives who drink motor oil like you means very little in the grand scheme of things.

Taco John
03-03-2008, 03:08 PM
you can vote however you want to but now your talking about a change in context from the threads originator

Conservatives tend to be republicans and for a conservative to go over the top and vote for a liberal just insures that conservative values take a step backwards for 4 to maybe 8 years or more - just cant see where a conservative would jump and down with excitement over that.


An Obama win is a good thing for the Conservative movement, so far as I'm concerned. It's a sign to the Republican party that they cannot win without conservatives behind them. A McCain win is a disaster for the Conservative movement, because it's a message to the Republican establishment that they can win without either the conservatives, or even a conservative candidate.

As far as I'm concerned, a Conservative person voting for McCain is about as wishy washy as it gets.

SBK
03-03-2008, 03:10 PM
Personally I think a conservative ideologue is far more likely to vote for a 3rd party or sit this one out than vote for Obama.

MurphDog
03-03-2008, 06:23 PM
An Obama win is a good thing for the Conservative movement, so far as I'm concerned. It's a sign to the Republican party that they cannot win without conservatives behind them. A McCain win is a disaster for the Conservative movement, because it's a message to the Republican establishment that they can win without either the conservatives, or even a conservative candidate.

As far as I'm concerned, a Conservative person voting for McCain is about as wishy washy as it gets.

A conservative voting in a liberal is a ridiculous thought

MadMax
03-03-2008, 09:23 PM
Your characterization of my father and father in law matters very little and misses the entire point. These are gentlemen who aren't very political, but consistently vote for Republicans. They are both turned off by McCain, but are finding Obama's message appealing. So whatever you want to say about whether they are hard core conservatives who drink motor oil like you means very little in the grand scheme of things.


Your whole ideology revolves around the great oil conspiracy eh Burrito???? So happy you are the enlightened one that see's the great " grand scheme " of things... Damn you are ****in enlightening.

Taco John
03-03-2008, 09:43 PM
Your whole ideology revolves around the great oil conspiracy eh Burrito???? So happy you are the enlightened one that see's the great " grand scheme " of things... Damn you are ****in enlightening.

great oil conspiracy?

I guess that depends on what you consider the "great oil conspiracy."

Taco John
03-03-2008, 09:44 PM
A conservative voting in a liberal is a ridiculous thought


We live in ridiculous times...

a1na2
03-03-2008, 09:46 PM
Your whole ideology revolves around the great oil conspiracy eh Burrito???? So happy you are the enlightened one that see's the great " grand scheme " of things... Damn you are ****in enlightening.

Better watch out, TJ will pull out the racist card on you, he's been known to do it before.