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jAZ
03-03-2008, 01:26 PM
... but loses the delegate count in Texas thanks to the primacaucus format and the weighted delegate system that favors his strong areas.

But even though she doesn't really close the gap on delegates, and might actually slide further behind... she stays in the race for another month plus (through PA).

I hope I'm wrong.

HolmeZz
03-03-2008, 01:31 PM
Dunno about the popular vote, but Chuck Todd already did a bunch of different guesstimates on how the delegates will play out. He said the best Hillary could hope for is a net of 3 total delegates out of all 4 states. I think she's shot when it comes to having a shot at making the pledge delegate count even relatively close by the time every state has voted.

dirk digler
03-03-2008, 01:34 PM
I was about to start a prediction thread myself but you beat me to it. :harumph:

Anyway for some reason I feel the momentum going back to Clinton and I agree she is going to win TX, OH, and RI.

I think Obama is starting to fall and I don't think he will be the nominee UNLESS he wins tomorrow night.

HolmeZz
03-03-2008, 01:35 PM
I think Obama is starting to fall and I don't think he will be the nominee UNLESS he wins tomorrow night.

:spock:

Obama's support has yet to dip in any state he's gone and campaigned in.

dirk digler
03-03-2008, 01:38 PM
:spock:

Obama's support has yet to dip in any state he's gone and campaigned in.

I know but if he continuously loses the big states I can't see how he is a viable candidate can you?

jAZ
03-03-2008, 01:39 PM
I think Obama is starting to fall and I don't think he will be the nominee UNLESS he wins tomorrow night.
I am not saying this at all.

I think she's prolonging his ultimate win.

mlyonsd
03-03-2008, 01:40 PM
I predict Obama wins all three states and Hillary is pressured out of the race before PA.

jAZ
03-03-2008, 01:40 PM
I know but if he continuously loses the big states I can't see how he is a viable candidate can you?
She was up 21 points 2 weeks ago.

It's now a dead heat.

dirk digler
03-03-2008, 01:42 PM
I am not saying this at all.

I think she's prolonging his ultimate win.

I understand what you are saying but I was just hoping with 11 straight wins he would crush her in Ohio and Texas and if he loses both that is not a good sign.

just my imo

jAZ
03-03-2008, 01:43 PM
I predict Obama wins all three states and Hillary is pressured out of the race before PA.
First, there are 4 states... Vermont is the other one.

And no one is predicting him to win RI at all.

He could win Texas and there is a lone poll (outlier, IMO) showing him ahead in OH.

I think he might expand his lead in delegates even if he doesn't win the popular vote in Texas... as long as it's close in OH.

Cochise
03-03-2008, 01:43 PM
i don't think she'll win, probably no need for preemptive damage control about the results

HolmeZz
03-03-2008, 01:44 PM
I know but if he continuously loses the big states I can't see how he is a viable candidate can you?

You seem to be feeding into the Clinton campaign rhetoric. Illinois isn't a big state? Virginia? Wisconsin? Georgia? Missouri? South Carolina? Minnesota?

Obama's going to win most of the states remaining after tomorrow even if Hillary stays in the race; states like North Carolina, Mississippi, Oregon, ect. It's going to be virtually impossible for Hillary to make the pledged delegate count close enough that it can be discounted.

It's been painfully evident that in every state they each campaign in, Clinton's base of support shrinks and Obama's base grows. He's basically having to overcome 20%+ deficits in each state and he's managing to draw even, or like in Wisconsin, completely blow her doors off.

It's quite clear who the better candidate is and I think it's why you hear people like Dodd and Richardson basically echoing that fact; it's a sign most of the Democratic establishment realizes it.

jAZ
03-03-2008, 01:46 PM
I understand what you are saying but I was just hoping with 11 straight wins he would crush her in Ohio and Texas and if he loses both that is not a good sign.

just my imo
I think this Canadian NAFTA issue is going to hurt Obama in OH. And her "Red Phone" ad in TX was mocked by most people in the media, but I think it might work on the ground.

But for Hillary to win the whole thing, she's going to need to take over the delegate lead. And she really can't do that mathmatically. So she'd need the superdelegates to break with the popular will. And I don't think that they will do that. I'm not even sure they *want* to do that any longer.

mlyonsd
03-03-2008, 01:47 PM
First, there are 4 states... Vermont is the other one.

And no one is predicting him to win RI at all.

He could win Texas and there is a lone poll (outlier, IMO) showing him ahead in OH.

I think he might expand his lead in delegates even if he doesn't win the popular vote in Texas... as long as it's close in OH.

I'm nobody? Ok, I say he wins 4 states tomorrow.

jAZ
03-03-2008, 01:50 PM
I'm nobody? Ok, I say he wins 4 states tomorrow.
No one who isn't just spouting off non-sense. ;)

mlyonsd
03-03-2008, 01:53 PM
No one who isn't just spouting off non-sense. ;)

I'm serious. I'll admit you might be right about RI but I see him winning Texas and Ohio out right.

She's just about done.

dirk digler
03-03-2008, 01:57 PM
You seem to be feeding into the Clinton campaign rhetoric. Illinois isn't a big state? Virginia? Wisconsin? Georgia? Missouri? South Carolina? Minnesota?

Obama's going to win most of the states remaining after tomorrow even if Hillary stays in the race; states like North Carolina, Mississippi, Oregon, ect. It's going to be virtually impossible for Hillary to make the pledged delegate count close enough that it can be discounted.

It's been painfully evident that in every state they each campaign in, Clinton's base of support shrinks and Obama's base grows. He's basically having to overcome 20%+ deficits in each state and he's managing to draw even, or like in Wisconsin, completely blow her doors off.

It's quite clear who the better candidate is and I think it's why you hear people like Dodd and Richardson basically echoing that fact; it's a sign most of the Democratic establishment realizes it.


I think this Canadian NAFTA issue is going to hurt Obama in OH. And her "Red Phone" ad in TX was mocked by most people in the media, but I think it might work on the ground.

But for Hillary to win the whole thing, she's going to need to take over the delegate lead. And she really can't do that mathmatically. So she'd need the superdelegates to break with the popular will. And I don't think that they will do that. I'm not even sure they *want* to do that any longer.

I understand where both of you guys are coming from and I know mathematically she can't win but I was hoping by now that voters would get behind Obama and make him the nominee and it just hasn't happened.

dirk digler
03-03-2008, 01:57 PM
I'm serious. I'll admit you might be right about RI but I see him winning Texas and Ohio out right.

She's just about done.

I hope you are right but I don't think she is close to being done.

jAZ
03-03-2008, 02:29 PM
I'm serious. I'll admit you might be right about RI but I see him winning Texas and Ohio out right.

She's just about done.
That's a more reasonable position. Though, I think Obama has given up on Ohio. He's only campaigning in Texas today and tomorrow.

HolmeZz
03-03-2008, 02:31 PM
That's a more reasonable position. Though, I think Obama has given up on Ohio. He's only campaigning in Texas today and tomorrow.

I think he realizes he only 'needs' to win one state, and Texas is the much more likely of the 2. Plus Texas has the caucus later tomorrow night, which will be pretty important.

Calcountry
03-03-2008, 02:34 PM
... but loses the delegate count in Texas thanks to the primacaucus format and the weighted delegate system that favors his strong areas.

But even though she doesn't really close the gap on delegates, and might actually slide further behind... she stays in the race for another month plus (through PA).

I hope I'm wrong.
I hope your right, I hope she retracts her talons on your hoper.

jAZ
03-03-2008, 02:40 PM
I understand where both of you guys are coming from and I know mathematically she can't win but I was hoping by now that voters would get behind Obama and make him the nominee and it just hasn't happened.
I agree. However, we are talking about the Clinton's here. Her supporters are passionate and they are going all out to win.

It's funny. It appears that the Clinton's are winning the "expectations game".

If you recall 2 weeks ago (after the last primary), Obama wasn't expected to win EITHER of these states and the media was still talking about whether Clinton would drop out. And her own campaign was saying that she couldn't go on without winning BOTH.

Now that he's closed the HUGE gaps in both states and appears that he could win Texas and compete in Ohio... the expectations are that he needed to win both or she wins the nomination?

Ouch.

dirk digler
03-03-2008, 02:47 PM
I agree. However, we are talking about the Clinton's here. Her supporters are passionate and they are going all out to win.

It's funny. It appears that the Clinton's are winning the "expectations game".

If you recall 2 weeks ago (after the last primary), Obama wasn't expected to win EITHER of these states and the media was still talking about whether Clinton would drop out. And her own campaign was saying that she couldn't go on without winning BOTH.

Now that he's closed the HUGE gaps in both states and appears that he could win Texas and compete in Ohio... the expectations are that he needed to win both or she wins the nomination?

Ouch.

Yep I think you are right. I was\am expecting Obama to win tomorrow and it feels like she has all the momentum.

She is winning th expectation game at least in my own mind. :)

Logical
03-03-2008, 02:59 PM
I predict Obama wins all three states and Hillary is pressured out of the race before PA.
I sure hope you are correct, hearing no more from Hillary would be a godsend.

HolmeZz
03-03-2008, 03:00 PM
Yep I think you are right. I was\am expecting Obama to win tomorrow and it feels like she has all the momentum.

She is winning th expectation game at least in my own mind. :)

They're winning the expectations game from a psychological standpoint, but they're losing it from a realistic standpoint. It's why they keep changing their goals.

Clinton Chief Strategist Mark Penn: “After March 4th, over 3000 delegates will be committed, and we project that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be virtually tied with 611 delegates still to be chosen in Pennsylvania and other remaining states. Again and again, this race has shown that it is voters and delegates who matter, not the pundits or perceived ‘momentum.’” [Mark Penn memo, 2/13/08]

Clinton aide Guy Cecil: "We think that at the end of the day on March 4 we will be within 25 delegates.” [Politico, 2/13/08]

Howard Wolfson: “I Think We Will Be Ahead In The Delegate Race After Texas And Ohio.” [Clinton campaign conference call, 2/11/08]

New York Times: “Clinton advisers have said Mrs. Clinton must win the Texas and Ohio primaries by at least 10 percentage points if she has any hope of catching up with Mr. Obama in the delegate count, particularly because he has shown momentum recently at picking up support from elected officials who count as superdelegates.” [NYT, 2/22/08]

jAZ
03-03-2008, 03:42 PM
They're winning the expectations game from a psychological standpoint, but they're losing it from a realistic standpoint. It's why they keep changing their goals.

I was just watching MSNBC and A.B. Stoddard from The Hill just made the point that the Clinton campaign is winning the "expecations game" because Obama isn't playing it at all.

I guess they aren't even trying to manage expecations and haven't really done anything of the sort at all along the way. I'm not sure why or if it's a strategic choice of some kind, but it's explains why Clinton keeps hanging on as each milestone passes, she failes to make the original grade and yet doesn't "fail out".

'Hamas' Jenkins
03-03-2008, 03:47 PM
Dirk, you've been a Chief fan too long.

Just remember

David Axelrod>Carl Peterson>Mark Penn

jAZ
03-03-2008, 03:51 PM
David Axelrod>Carl Peterson>Mark Penn

ROFL

Classic!

memyselfI
03-03-2008, 03:51 PM
I didn't think she would stand a chance until today when I saw Tucker Carlson say that everyone except for Obama is rooting for her to win on Tuesday so the race would go on.

I thought if he means the media then this ball game is far from over. If Obama starts getting more scrutiny and she starts getting even a fraction of the lusting that the media has done over Obama then this race could end up getting very interesting.

HolmeZz
03-03-2008, 03:53 PM
I didn't think she would stand a chance until today when I saw Tucker Carlson say that everyone except for Obama is rooting for her to win on Tuesday so the race would go on.

I thought if he means the media then this ball game is far from over. If Obama starts getting more scrutiny and she starts getting even a fraction of the lusting that the media has done over Obama then this race could end up getting very interesting.

The media's been letting her control the narrative for a while now, moonbat.

dirk digler
03-03-2008, 03:57 PM
Dirk, you've been a Chief fan too long.

Just remember

David Axelrod>Carl Peterson>Mark Penn

LMAO

That is so true. The Chiefs have pretty much destroyed any hope of anything that I support winning. :D

memyselfI
03-03-2008, 04:00 PM
The media's been letting her control the narrative for a while now, moonbat.

Oh yeah. They just love her and Bill. ROFL

HolmeZz
03-03-2008, 04:03 PM
Oh yeah. They just love her and Bill. ROFL

Please tell me you don't think this race would be over if Clinton had won 11 straight contests and was up 160 in pledged delegates.

I already displayed the expectation changes of her campaign.

memyselfI
03-03-2008, 04:07 PM
Please tell me you don't think this race would be over if Clinton had won 11 straight contests and was up 160 in pledged delegates.

I already displayed the expectation changes of her campaign.

Please don't tell me that BO could have won all of those states without the fawning of the media.

HolmeZz
03-03-2008, 04:10 PM
Please don't tell me that BO could have won all of those states without the fawning of the media.

Certainly he would've. Hillary friggin' ignored all those contests. How can you act like she would've won otherwise? LMAO

Please leave, idiot.

jAZ
03-03-2008, 04:22 PM
Please don't tell me that BO could have won all of those states without the fawning of the media.

This is a case where both issues are correct.

Clinton has completely dominated the framing of the race and playing up and down expectations. Without that, she's out of the race 2 weeks ago. Maybe sooner.

But Obama has some of the Reagan-esque teflon that comes from him being personally likable and her campaign failing miserably to overcome her "bitch" persona and to demonstrate her humanity.

James Carville was on MTP and did a really good job of humanizing her in a way that NO ONE else has even tried to do. He was talking about how much he loves her as a person, and how different she is from her reputation.

And on MSNBC just a bit ago, they were also talking about how Hillary is showing up on shows like SNL and the Daily Show. And how her campaign made a calculation to ignore those sorts of appearance requests because they wanted to run an "incumbent" campaign and those shows are for the rest of the candidates.

Her campaign has been so badly managed, that it's really disengenous to blame the media for looking favorably upon Obama when Obama has made himself look favorable and Hillary's camp has made her look stupid.

memyselfI
03-03-2008, 04:40 PM
This is a case where both issues are correct.

Her campaign has been so badly managed, that it's really disengenous to blame the media for looking favorably upon Obama when Obama has made himself look favorable and Hillary's camp has made her look stupid.


I agree with this and even though I don't like either of them, I can see where the media has totally pumped up Obama and enjoyed their part in his success while completely enjoying the Clinton campaign implosion and reveling in their part of that as well.

My lone consolation in this is that I know the media will turn on Obama and it's not a matter of if but when. We'll see what he's truly made of at that point. I contend it won't be pretty because no one except for the vast RW and a few Dem hold outs have really tried to point out the flaws in HIM. And it's truly been like talking to a wall. But if the media gets on board with it then Obama will have to withstand the type of scrutiny that Clinton has had to endure. The one thing he has going for him that Clinton doesn't is that his campaign seems to have their heads out of their azzes. Clinton hasn't been a terrible candidate but her campaign has been terrible.

jAZ
03-03-2008, 04:47 PM
We'll see what he's truly made of at that point. I contend it won't be pretty because no one except for the vast RW and a few Dem hold outs have really tried to point out the flaws in HIM. And it's truly been like talking to a wall.
You do yourself and your cause (of sharing sincere flaws in Obama) by parroting the really stupid, dishonest, distorted crap about him.

I honestly don't recall you presenting many sincere criticisms beyond a vague concern that he's somehow going to govern as a centrist and not a progressive if elected.

memyselfI
03-03-2008, 04:51 PM
You do yourself and your cause (of sharing sincere flaws in Obama) by parroting the really stupid, dishonest, distorted crap about him.

I honestly don't recall you presenting many sincere criticisms beyond a vague concern that he's somehow going to govern as a centrist and not a progressive if elected.

We'll see. Maybe the crap that seems stupid, dishonest, or distorted will end up having a basis in reality when all is said and done.

HolmeZz
03-03-2008, 04:56 PM
We'll see. Maybe the crap that seems stupid, dishonest, or distorted will end up having a basis in reality when all is said and done.

That's now how it works. You've thrown plenty of shit at the wall in the hopes that something sticks down the road. You haven't had a basis for any of it, so you won't gain credibility if you end up validated. You'll continue to look like a schmuck.

You sound like Bush saying "I'll be validated when kids read about this in history books!".

jAZ
03-03-2008, 04:57 PM
We'll see. Maybe the crap that seems stupid, dishonest, or distorted will end up having a basis in reality when all is said and done.
"Obmamessiah" will eventually be outed as a Manchurian Terrorist, right?

Jeez...

I wish you would deal with those sincere criticisms rather than this sort of crap.

memyselfI
03-03-2008, 05:04 PM
"Obmamessiah" will eventually be outed as a Manchurian Terrorist, right?

Jeez...

I wish you would deal with those sincere criticisms rather than this sort of crap.

No, not as a terrorist. Not even as a sympathizer. Other than that, who knows. He's a blank screen, remember? :doh!::spock::hmmm:

jettio
03-03-2008, 05:06 PM
The fact that the press and cable channels make more money if the primary is contested is an incentive for the press to create a feeling of momentum for Clinton.

Clinton "working the refs" by pissing and moaning about press coverage of Obama has had its intended effect.

And two weeks ago, Clinton finishes losing her 11th in a row and has 20 point leads in Texas and Ohio polls.

If she holds on to win states that have demographics favorable to her, but does not change the delegate count very much, that is not much justification for her being the nominee, but it will be played up like that.

You can bet the TV stations in Pennsylvania, who are probably owned by syndicated broadcasters, know that they make a lot more money if the primaries remain contested.

jAZ
03-03-2008, 05:10 PM
No, not as a terrorist. Not even as a sympathizer. Other than that, who knows. He's a blank screen, remember? :doh!::spock::hmmm:
Seriously... you have a lot to offer here when you aren't acting like this. What's the point? Why not argue your points in a serious and direct way? File your complaints and focus on them. Not this GOP-style whisper campaign you are acting out.

jAZ
03-03-2008, 05:11 PM
The fact that the press and cable channels make more money if the primary is contested is an incentive for the press to create a feeling of momentum for Clinton.

Clinton "working the refs" by pissing and moaning about press coverage of Obama has had its intended effect.

And two weeks ago, Clinton finishes losing her 11th in a row and has 20 point leads in Texas and Ohio polls.

If she holds on to win states that have demographics favorable to her, but does not change the delegate count very much, that is not much justification for her being the nominee, but it will be played up like that.

You can bet the TV stations in Pennsylvania, who are probably owned by syndicated broadcasters, know that they make a lot more money if the primaries remain contested.

Yep. No doubt.

HolmeZz
03-03-2008, 08:14 PM
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,334669,00.html

Rush telling his Republican listeners in Ohio and Texas to go vote for Hillary in the primary tomorrow.

Want to hear how memeinkampfI spins this considering she's been blasting Obama for only winning because of indys and conservatives and that he's not the real choice of Democrats.

irishjayhawk
03-03-2008, 10:12 PM
No, not as a terrorist. Not even as a sympathizer. Other than that, who knows. He's a blank screen, remember? :doh!::spock::hmmm:

The sad thing is that you could put the same cartoon with Bush and instead of the writing being Hope and Change; it reads Fear, 9/11, and Terrorist. The sheep would cower in back of him as he holds a shield that reads Iraq instead of a hippie necklace.

jAZ
03-03-2008, 10:20 PM
The sad thing is that you could put the same cartoon with Bush and instead of the writing being Hope and Change; it reads Fear, 9/11, and Terrorist. The sheep would cower in back of him as he holds a shield that reads Iraq instead of a hippie necklace.

http://bp2.blogger.com/_mW0cygxmNkY/RZkQ8l-V5GI/AAAAAAAAABg/iJVqm9gmhMw/s320/jesus_bush3.jpg

Coach
03-03-2008, 10:24 PM
I think it'll be a split. 50-50.

alnorth
03-03-2008, 11:07 PM
Honestly, as a Republican I am hoping for a total Obama blowout of epic proportions that finally forces Hillary to quit the race that evening or the next morning. I have not lost my mind and wish Hillary would have gotten the nomination, but she wont. This is all over but the shouting, and at this point I now want as little shouting as possible.

So, if Obama's the nominee, why wouldnt I want him to continue to slog it out with Hillary in a bitter nomination fight to the convention floor? Doesnt the conventional wisdom say that this benefits McCain? I dont think so. I believe a long drawn-out fight on the Dem side is really hurting McCain because he is irrelevant in the news, and he could remain irrelevant all the way to August. Eventually the Dems are going to kiss and make up to unite behind Obama, there is no threat of a fracture here, and by then McCain could be reduced to "John Who?" to the ignorant masses in the middle who have been seeing 24/7 Obama.

So, what we have is Obama getting nearly ALL of the press solidly from now through whenever Hillary concedes. The press is really being kind to Obama which should surprise no one. If Hillary is out, then the story shifts to Obama vs McCain. People would have over a half year to get used to the idea that there is theoretically another choice in this race, however dim those chances may be. As it is, Its Hillary vs Obama, with McCain being some unimportant old grumpy white guy off everyone's radar.

If I was in an open primary state tomorrow I'd cross over and be an "Obamican", but I would be doing it with my own evil intentions. I want to see an end to the Democratic nomination so the press can legitimately give McCain some roughly equal coverage, cutting Obama down to 50/50 instead of 95%+ of the coverage with Hillary.

memyselfI
03-04-2008, 06:37 AM
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,334669,00.html

Rush telling his Republican listeners in Ohio and Texas to go vote for Hillary in the primary tomorrow.

Want to hear how memeinkampfI spins this considering she's been blasting Obama for only winning because of indys and conservatives and that he's not the real choice of Democrats.

No spin. The initial plan of supporting Obama worked now they want to switch it to support Clinton so she can help knock him down a notch or two and not make him look like he's having the cake walk he's had.

If anything, it reconfirms my suspicions that DEMS themselves are not deciding their nominee.

a1na2
03-04-2008, 06:47 AM
Prediction: Hillary wins popular votes in Texas AND Ohio (and RI)...

Posted yesterday. Today we see just how full of crap the Hillary bandwagon is. The democratic primary could be over today. How much ya all wanna bet that even if Hillary gets dog slapped today she won't quit. She will continue to do her best to tear down the Democratic party. Her campaign has always been about her and not the country.

a1na2
03-04-2008, 06:53 AM
file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/ADMINI%7E1/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot-5.jpg

In all honesty this could be any of the candidates.

patteeu
03-04-2008, 08:10 AM
Honestly, as a Republican I am hoping for a total Obama blowout of epic proportions that finally forces Hillary to quit the race that evening or the next morning. I have not lost my mind and wish Hillary would have gotten the nomination, but she wont. This is all over but the shouting, and at this point I now want as little shouting as possible.

So, if Obama's the nominee, why wouldnt I want him to continue to slog it out with Hillary in a bitter nomination fight to the convention floor? Doesnt the conventional wisdom say that this benefits McCain? I dont think so. I believe a long drawn-out fight on the Dem side is really hurting McCain because he is irrelevant in the news, and he could remain irrelevant all the way to August. Eventually the Dems are going to kiss and make up to unite behind Obama, there is no threat of a fracture here, and by then McCain could be reduced to "John Who?" to the ignorant masses in the middle who have been seeing 24/7 Obama.

So, what we have is Obama getting nearly ALL of the press solidly from now through whenever Hillary concedes. The press is really being kind to Obama which should surprise no one. If Hillary is out, then the story shifts to Obama vs McCain. People would have over a half year to get used to the idea that there is theoretically another choice in this race, however dim those chances may be. As it is, Its Hillary vs Obama, with McCain being some unimportant old grumpy white guy off everyone's radar.

If I was in an open primary state tomorrow I'd cross over and be an "Obamican", but I would be doing it with my own evil intentions. I want to see an end to the Democratic nomination so the press can legitimately give McCain some roughly equal coverage, cutting Obama down to 50/50 instead of 95%+ of the coverage with Hillary.

I think you do a good job of thinking about things from a lot of different angles and I think you get it right a lot of times, but on this I think you're completely wrong.

Obama has been getting fawning press throughout his campaign, but it's just starting to turn. You don't want the bell to sound on this round of the fight just as Obama is starting to feel a few blows. It needs to play out at least a while longer. And if we can have pandemonium in Denver with a lot of rancor going both ways, that will turn off a lot of the weak-stomached middle who get turned off by real (i.e. dirty, hardball, negative) politics. And besides, it's more fun to watch.

HolmeZz
03-04-2008, 10:21 AM
No spin. The initial plan of supporting Obama worked now they want to switch it to support Clinton so she can help knock him down a notch or two and not make him look like he's having the cake walk he's had.

LMAO Obama's been winning because he's clearly the better candidate. I know that's tough to accept as the supporter of someone who fell by the wasteside a while ago, but it's the truth. It's not the media. It's not been Republicans trying to alter the Democratic nominee. There's a reason why in every state both campaign in Hillary's numbers shrink and Barack's grow. It's indisputable.

Carlota69
03-04-2008, 12:19 PM
What will be interesting is the Texas vote. From what the pundits have said, the polls don't represent the Hispanic vote becuz they dont do the polls in spanish. How much did Obama cut into Hillarys' hispanic base? That's what I want to see.

Ultra Peanut
03-04-2008, 12:25 PM
Obama takes Texas outright, Hillary ekes out a win in Ohio, and then she keeps pretending she's got a chance.

And as al so eloquently stated it, I'm not too sure that's a terrible thing at this point.

jAZ
03-04-2008, 12:45 PM
Obama has been getting fawning press throughout his campaign, but it's just starting to turn. You don't want the bell to sound on this round of the fight just as Obama is starting to feel a few blows. It needs to play out at least a while longer. And if we can have pandemonium in Denver with a lot of rancor going both ways, that will turn off a lot of the weak-stomached middle who get turned off by real (i.e. dirty, hardball, negative) politics. And besides, it's more fun to watch.
I think al's talking about the middle ground where Clinton concedes before the summer, but Obama/Clinton draw the media attention.

You are right about a convention fight. It will hurt the Dem nominee/party and would be wildly entertaining to an outsider and to the media.

I think a convention fight this summer and a hillary concession speech this week are about equal odds. Both close to zero.

memyselfI
03-04-2008, 12:50 PM
LMAO Obama's been winning because he's clearly the better candidate. I know that's tough to accept as the supporter of someone who fell by the wasteside a while ago, but it's the truth. It's not the media. It's not been Republicans trying to alter the Democratic nominee. There's a reason why in every state both campaign in Hillary's numbers shrink and Barack's grow. It's indisputable.

Yeah, he's been brilliant. So much so that yesterday when he FINALLY had some tough questioning he got irritated and seemed offended. ROFL

memyselfI
03-04-2008, 12:51 PM
I think al's talking about the middle ground where Clinton concedes before the summer, but Obama/Clinton draw the media attention.

You are right about a convention fight. It will hurt the Dem nominee/party and would be wildly entertaining to an outsider and to the media.

I think a convention fight this summer and a hillary concession speech this week are about equal odds. Both close to zero.

As long as there are states who could influence the outcome then I don't think she has a moral responsibility to concede. Imagine these little states who haven't moved up their primaries to 'matter' and they are finally being a factor in the process vs. having it wrapped up before their election day occurs.

And, as long as she has people willing to send her money and she's competitive then she should absolutely stay. I think Huckabee should as well if he so desires.

HolmeZz
03-04-2008, 12:55 PM
As long as there are states who could influence the outcome then I don't think she has a moral responsibility to concede. Imagine these little states who haven't moved up their primaries to 'matter' and they are finally being a factor in the process vs. having it wrapped up before their election day occurs.

Uh, she just spent the last month writing off the last 11 contests. How the hell can you now claim that all these states/delegates matter? She's had a 'big state' strategy, which works counter to the argument she now wants to wage.

memyselfI
03-04-2008, 01:00 PM
Uh, she just spent the last month writing off the last 11 contests. How the hell can you now claim that all these states/delegates matter? She's had a 'big state' strategy, which works counter to the argument she now wants to wage.

Because they do.

They only way Obama will have enough delegates to win is if she concedes hers. As long as she holds that card then she should not have to quit until the very end if that is what she wants.

It's what the American people want.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/03/04/ST2008030400004.html

HolmeZz
03-04-2008, 01:07 PM
Because they do.

If they do, then she wouldn't have downplayed every win Barack has had. She wouldn't be so deadset on having a strategy where the will of the people has to be ignored, as superdelegates are the only way she could possibly pass him in delegates.

They only way Obama will have enough delegates to win is if she concedes hers. As long as she holds that card then she should not have to quit until the very end if that is what she wants.

It's unbelievable how you've ate up the Clinton Campaign rhetoric. You're saying these states and delegates matter, but invoking a strategy where the superdelegates end up overturning the eventual total of pledged delegates.

It's what the American people want.

LMAO What the American people want is Obama to be the nominee.

memyselfI
03-04-2008, 01:14 PM
LMAO What the American people want is Obama to be the nominee.

For now...

HolmeZz
03-04-2008, 01:16 PM
For now...

You're a dildo. How can you talk about how important all the voters in these upcoming states are when your full intent is to win the nomination by overturning what the voters decided?

Ultra Peanut
03-04-2008, 01:17 PM
Because they do.

They only way Obama will have enough delegates to win is if she concedes hers. As long as she holds that card then she should not have to quit until the very end if that is what she wants.

It's what the American people want.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/03/04/ST2008030400004.html<object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/eXgdSOxaCGI"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/eXgdSOxaCGI" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>

jAZ
03-04-2008, 01:34 PM
As long as there are states who could influence the outcome then I don't think she has a moral responsibility to concede. Imagine these little states who haven't moved up their primaries to 'matter' and they are finally being a factor in the process vs. having it wrapped up before their election day occurs.

And, as long as she has people willing to send her money and she's competitive then she should absolutely stay. I think Huckabee should as well if he so desires.

Huck should be out after today as appears McCain will get the number of delegates needed to win tonight.

Hillary isn't obligated to get out, but at a certain point it's less about the best thing for voters, Democrats or progressives... and more about Hillary and the reputation of Bill or her campaigns' strategists.

I think when you are ready to burn down your own party in order to have a chance at convincing superdelegates to reverse the election results... it's no longer about the people, it's you.

memyselfI
03-04-2008, 01:35 PM
You're a dildo. How can you talk about how important all the voters in these upcoming states are when your full intent is to win the nomination by overturning what the voters decided?

He hasn't won the nomination yet. When he does then he will have the right to expect Hillary to give up. Until then, he needs to stop :deevee: and let the process play itself out.

Besides, Hillary being in the race is doing Obama a FAVOR. As soon as she is out the focus is on him and his implosion begins.

HolmeZz
03-04-2008, 01:38 PM
He hasn't won the nomination yet.

Tell me how Hillary's going to win the nomination.

memyselfI
03-04-2008, 01:49 PM
Huck should be out after today as appears McCain will get the number of delegates needed to win tonight.

Hillary isn't obligated to get out, but at a certain point it's less about the best thing for voters, Democrats or progressives... and more about Hillary and the reputation of Bill or her campaigns' strategists.

I think when you are ready to burn down your own party in order to have a chance at convincing superdelegates to reverse the election results... it's no longer about the people, it's you.

Some Democrats. I know plenty who are not decided and want this to go on longer so they can learn more about how the candidates handle themselves in a tough fight.

|Zach|
03-04-2008, 02:01 PM
There's going to be an implosion!!!!!!

memyselfI
03-04-2008, 02:04 PM
Tell me how Hillary's going to win the nomination.

I don't know. But if she wins most of the big states and is close she has no business quitting.

jAZ
03-04-2008, 02:04 PM
Some Democrats. I know plenty who are not decided and want this to go on longer so they can learn more about how the candidates handle themselves in a tough fight.
None of that changes the motivations of the people running the Clinton campaign at this point.

HolmeZz
03-04-2008, 02:06 PM
I don't know. But if she wins most of the big states and is close she has no business quitting.

She's not going to be particularly close in pledged delegates. So you're admitting that she's in the race despite not having a way to win. So all she's doing is tearing the party apart.

jAZ
03-04-2008, 02:07 PM
I don't know. But if she wins most of the big states and is close she has no business quitting.
What does "big states" have to do with anything. Either "close" is enough on it's own or it's not. The process only has to do with "big states" as far as big states have big delegate counts. And as far as delegates go, the question HolmeZz asked remains unanswered by you or anyone else for that matter.

memyselfI
03-04-2008, 02:18 PM
What does "big states" have to do with anything. Either "close" is enough on it's own or it's not. The process only has to do with "big states" as far as big states have big delegate counts. And as far as delegates go, the question HolmeZz asked remains unanswered by you or anyone else for that matter.

I would like to see this played out till the end. Let Obama win with the delegate count and lose the popular vote if that what it means in the end. That is what HIS supporters fear. So be it. At least the process would have played out.

patteeu
03-04-2008, 03:13 PM
I think al's talking about the middle ground where Clinton concedes before the summer, but Obama/Clinton draw the media attention.

You are right about a convention fight. It will hurt the Dem nominee/party and would be wildly entertaining to an outsider and to the media.

I think a convention fight this summer and a hillary concession speech this week are about equal odds. Both close to zero.

I pretty much agree with you except I think the odds are slightly better for either of the options in your last sentence. Unfortunately, you're probably right that the middle ground is the most probable and I can see al's pov in that scenario. Crossing my finger for riots in the streets of Denver (with minimal human damage and property damage mainly limited to Invesco, :p ).

jAZ
03-04-2008, 04:07 PM
I would like to see this played out till the end. Let Obama win with the delegate count and lose the popular vote if that what it means in the end. That is what HIS supporters fear. So be it. At least the process would have played out.
What does "play out" mean exactly?

memyselfI
03-04-2008, 04:14 PM
What does "play out" mean exactly?

It means that while we have record voter turn out in states that don't normally get to have an impact on this process then we should allow it to continue onward as long as it's still close.

I wouldn't be upset to see it go to the convention and I don't think it would be a big debacle if it did.

dirk digler
03-04-2008, 04:28 PM
It means that while we have record voter turn out in states that don't normally get to have an impact on this process then we should allow it to continue onward as long as it's still close.

I wouldn't be upset to see it go to the convention and I don't think it would be a big debacle if it did.

I am not a democrat but IMO that is the worst thing for the party. It needs to be over tonight regardless.

If the Dems want to win Hillary needs to get out so they can start concentrating on McCain instead of each other. Right now they have raised $130 million dollars to fight each other and only $5 million to fight McCain.

Cave Johnson
03-04-2008, 04:29 PM
Some Democrats. I know plenty who are not decided and want this to go on longer so they can learn more about how the candidates handle themselves in a tough fight.

God bless the old line Democrats. They're such a bunch of mouth breathing morans that they'd rather bloody and batter the eventual nominee rather than prepare for November. What a bunch of ****ing losers. No wonder people break out the "circular firing squad" joke.

Get the **** over it, you bunch of self obsessed, me generation boomers. Your time has passed.

Cochise
03-04-2008, 04:50 PM
the best part of all this "meme against the world" is that the other side is coming at her like "look at you, you're mean and nasty and represent the bad side of politics" when the obamites in this forum are just as mean and nasty toward her and are doing basically all the same things. If there were ever a group of supporters that resembled their candidate, or at least his crafted image, any less.

I would have a hard time saying who's been more negative on this board between the few Clinton followers and Obama's Witnesses. but then again I'm 'the forces of the status quo' trying to tell people 'no we can't' or whatever vaguery applies so what do I know.

patteeu
03-04-2008, 04:52 PM
the best part of all this "meme against the world" is that the other side is coming at her like "look at you, you're mean and nasty and represent the bad side of politics" when the obamites in this forum are just as mean and nasty toward her and are doing basically all the same things. If there were ever a group of supporters that resembled their candidate, or at least his crafted image, any less.

I would have a hard time saying who's been more negative on this board between the few Clinton followers and Obama's Witnesses. but then again I'm 'the forces of the status quo' trying to tell people 'no we can't' or whatever vaguery applies so what do I know.

You're not "status quo", you're full on "power quo".

memyselfI
03-04-2008, 04:53 PM
I am not a democrat but IMO that is the worst thing for the party. It needs to be over tonight regardless.

If the Dems want to win Hillary needs to get out so they can start concentrating on McCain instead of each other. Right now they have raised $130 million dollars to fight each other and only $5 million to fight McCain.

The only one it's bad for is Baaaarack Obama and his die hard supporters who are worried he will not be able to close the deal. For the rest of us, a close race that invites more interest and, more importantly, more voters to the party and will only benefit ALL involved.

This is the first election in a LONG time where the candidates have really had to work to get the nomination. For die hard politicos and undecideds, this is a great election because it's interesting and it's also motivating people to get involved. People who would normally not care until the weeks before November.

I could really care less if Baaaarack Obama or Hillary Clinton or their supporters are feeling they are entitled to an easy race or a swift resolution. As long as no one has enough to cement the nomination then I have no problem with it going on until the convention. Who knows what will happen before then.

Besides, as long as the focus is on Obama V. Clinton then John McCain will have to basically set himself on fire to get attention. ROFL

memyselfI
03-04-2008, 04:56 PM
the best part of all this "meme against the world" is that the other side is coming at her like "look at you, you're mean and nasty and represent the bad side of politics" when the obamites in this forum are just as mean and nasty toward her and are doing basically all the same things. If there were ever a group of supporters that resembled their candidate, or at least his crafted image, any less.

I would have a hard time saying who's been more negative on this board between the few Clinton followers and Obama's Witnesses. but then again I'm 'the forces of the status quo' trying to tell people 'no we can't' or whatever vaguery applies so what do I know.

Clinton has supporters on this board? I've been labeled as such but for me it's more ABBO than for Hillary.

Cochise
03-04-2008, 04:56 PM
You're not "status quo", you're full on "power quo".

I don't know what that means, but I'm all for it if it makes old ladies eat dog food or helps out my rich buddies or something.

Coach
03-04-2008, 04:59 PM
So, what time does the polls close tonight?

go bowe
03-04-2008, 05:03 PM
I predict Obama wins all three states and Hillary is pressured out of the race before PA.i'm close to agreeing comletely
with your prediction, but i somehow doubt that she will just give up and drop out of the race...

at least until she is mathematically eliminated...

go bowe
03-04-2008, 05:07 PM
First, there are 4 states... Vermont is the other one.

And no one is predicting him to win RI at all.

He could win Texas and there is a lone poll (outlier, IMO) showing him ahead in OH.

I think he might expand his lead in delegates even if he doesn't win the popular vote in Texas... as long as it's close in OH.vermont is a state?

when did this happen?

i thought vermont was in canada...

go bowe
03-04-2008, 05:12 PM
I'm nobody? Ok, I say he wins 4 states tomorrow.ok, i'll see your 4 states, and raise you 1 canada...

.

patteeu
03-04-2008, 05:51 PM
ok, i'll see your 4 states, and raise you 1 canada...

.

Obama the uniter has already divided Canada. Our neighbors to the north are now arguing over a leaked memo that discusses Obama's secret reassurances to the Canucks that he doesn't really mean what he's saying on the campaign trail about NAFTA.

P.S. I hope you're doing well.

P.S.S. I don't want to hijack this thread, but I couldn't pass up your reference to Canada.

jAZ
03-05-2008, 12:01 AM
... but loses the delegate count in Texas thanks to the primacaucus format and the weighted delegate system that favors his strong areas.

But even though she doesn't really close the gap on delegates, and might actually slide further behind... she stays in the race for another month plus (through PA).

I hope I'm wrong.
I'm good.

Reaper16
03-05-2008, 12:19 AM
I'm good.
Next time, predict something less annoying :)

Mr. Kotter
03-05-2008, 12:28 AM
LMAO....

ROFL MAO...


Seven weeks of good stuff ahead.....:thumb:


ROFL

mlyonsd
03-05-2008, 08:44 AM
I am officially an idiot for the prediction I made.

Democrats never cease to amaze me. Why they would keep alive the only candidate left the republicans can possibly beat is beyond me.

patteeu
03-05-2008, 09:12 AM
I am officially an idiot for the prediction I made.

Democrats never cease to amaze me. Why they would keep alive the only candidate left the republicans can possibly beat is beyond me.

Stop trying to understand them. You're playing with fire. :p