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View Full Version : Who do Hastert's seat. Who do who do.


tiptap
03-08-2008, 08:06 PM
135 of 568 precincts reporting and the Democrat Scientist Foster is leading 55% to 45%.

tiptap
03-08-2008, 08:24 PM
313 of 568 precincts and the lead is down 53% to 47%. 31,200 to 28,400 count. This seems low for the total turnout in the primaries at this point.

tiptap
03-08-2008, 08:36 PM
423 of 568 and the vote is 53 vs 47. Or in votes 40,400 vs 35,900.

And people don't think that Democrats will be picking up 20 seats in the House and at least 6 and probably 8 seats in the Senate and getting to 60 for the Democrats. Still plenty of time before the fall vote though.

Logical
03-08-2008, 08:42 PM
Could you explain these stats, I am afraid I have no point of reference and I am not sure what you are talking about.

tiptap
03-08-2008, 08:50 PM
OK, Hastert, the former Speaker's seat is being contested in a special election today and the Democratic candidate Foster, a scientist and businessman is leading in the precincts that have reported in the 14th district of Illinois.

While every Congressman's seat is voted on come Nov., the incumbents tend to win. However around 25 Republicans are retiring and that makes those seats vulnerable come fall. So I predict 20 seat pick up for the Democrats. And at least 6 and maybe 8 seats for the Senate races. I count Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, Maine, New Hampshire, Oregon, Minnesota and Virginia. That doesn't include the open seats of Nebraska and Idaho but I view them as much more of a long shot, there is a slim chance that Dole might lose in N. Carolina.

Logical
03-08-2008, 08:52 PM
OK, Hastert, the former Speaker seat is being contested and the Democratic candidate Foster, a scientist and businessman is leading in the precincts that have reported in the 14th district of Illinois.

While every Congressman's seat is voted on come Nov., the incumbents tend to win. However around 25 Republicans are retiring and that makes those seats vulnerable come fall. So I predict 20 seat pick up for the Democrats. And at least 6 and maybe 8 seats for the Senate races. I count Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, Maine, New Hampshire, Oregon, Minnesota and Virginia.

Thanks for the clarification, and I agree. If the Democrats can gain the Presidency they will have quite the chance to set a new course for the country. Will they succeed or fail, that is the real question.

tiptap
03-08-2008, 08:55 PM
And with 96% of the vote in the Beacon is calling the race for Bill Foster. He is the newest member of the House of Representative from the 14 District of Illinois barring something really bizarre.

beer bacon
03-08-2008, 09:24 PM
99% of the vote is in, and Foster leads 52% to 48%. Obama and Foster snuck in a republican stronghold in the middle of the night and snatched a house seat for the democrats.

tiptap
03-09-2008, 08:31 AM
Thanks for the clarification, and I agree. If the Democrats can gain the Presidency they will have quite the chance to set a new course for the country. Will they succeed or fail, that is the real question.

We know that the recent and present crop of Republicans failed. And they did so because they were out to prove that government doesn't work. It is always evil. And they were successful. Even in areas where they would have liked it not to be so.

tiptap
03-09-2008, 09:55 AM
The big news today is about a man from Illinois. No not THAT man, although he won the Wyoming caucuses easily. Bill Foster (D), a nuclear particle physicist who had never run for public office before defeated Jim Oberweis (R) for the seat of retiring congressman and former House Speaker, Dennis Hastert in IL-14, which has a PVI of R+5 and has sent a Republican to Congress for 11 straight terms. Hastert got 60% of the vote in this suburban Chicago district in 2006 and Bush got 55% in 2004. Foster got 53% of the vote yesterday to Oberweis' 47%. Foster will take office Monday but the two will face off in the general election in November. If Obama is on the national ticket, Oberweis will have virtually no chance. As a sitting congressman, Foster becomes a superdelegate and gets to vote at the DNC. He hasn't announced his choice yet, but the smart money is betting he will support Obama. Even a 1-day politician understands that when a guy helps you get elected, you owe him one.

This is a huge defeat for the GOP in a very high profile race that both parties poured over 1 million dollars into and is a very bad omen for the Republicans in the Fall. If they can't even hold a seat they have held for 20+ years in a strongly Republican district against a newbie who knows nothing about politics, what's going to happen in swing districts with stronger candidates? How are they going to beat the large class of Democratic freshmen under these conditions? To make it worse, many people will see this as a proxy for an Obama-McCain race as the Illinois senator made a TV ad for Foster and Sen. McCain campaigned for Oberweis. At www.intrade.com the bettors think there is only an 8% chance the Republicans will take back the House.

http://electoral-vote.com/

A special election Saturday in Illinois’ 14th Congressional District is more captivating than most special elections for two reasons.

First: the district carries great symbolic significance because it was the bailiwick of Republican J. Dennis Hastert, the Speaker of the U.S. House for most of the dozen years that Republicans were in the majority from 1995 through 2006. Hastert’s resignation last November prompted this unusual Saturday balloting.

Second: The race is a close one. Party strategists and political analysts will be closely monitoring the returns for what the outcome might portend for November elections that are less than eight months away. Democratic scientist Bill Foster and Republican businessman Jim Oberweis appear neck-and-neck in the 14th, which takes in suburbs and rural territory west of Chicago.

Special elections always provide grist for the national party committees — in particular the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which is the political arm of the majority Democrats in the U.S. House, and its partisan counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). Aides from those two organizations will join us in taking time out on a Saturday night to watch the results, and we look forward to how they’ll interpret the returns and try to put the best face on the outcome. (The polling stations in Illinois 14 close at 8 p.m. EST)

Here’s a “Spin Guide” that lays out both scenarios in Illinois’ 14th — a Foster victory or an Oberweis victory — and envisions how Democratic and Republican officials might respond to either outcome.
If Foster Wins . . .

• The Democratic Spin: Foster’s victory is a stunning rebuke and embarrassment to President Bush, Hastert and House Republicans — and further evidence that voters want “change” that the GOP hasn’t been providing. We’re well-positioned to retain the House majority — a Foster win would require the Republicans to make a net gain of 17 House seats to reclaim the majority. We can win in Republican-leaning districts and will capture more of them in November. Our party is doing better in “outer suburban” districts that the GOP had dominated.

• The Republican Spin: We had the misfortune of facing well-funded opposition in a district where Illinois Democratic Sen. Barack Obama , who endorsed Foster, is very popular. And don’t read too much into the predictive value of special elections: in 2004, Democrats wrested away two districts from Republicans in special elections — Kentucky’s 6th District (in February) and South Dakota’s at-large district (in June) — but we still retained our House majority in the November election, when Bush was re-elected. So Foster’s victory doesn’t mean that the Democrats are going to gain seats in November.

http://cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002684092

I didn't include the spin if the Republican won but both candidates will be running again in the fall. It is interesting to note the Republicans spent a third of the money from the National Party fund for the House and they lost. There will not be extra money for any of the Republican House seat. They each will be on their own.

Adept Havelock
03-09-2008, 11:16 AM
It's only a matter of time before other House members ask him to soup up their Deloreans.

I don't want the Congresscritters having access to time machine technology.



But yeah, it's a bit of a surprise.