PDA

View Full Version : Gretz:Trading Down Can Help, Hurt


Tribal Warfare
03-21-2008, 04:53 AM
http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2008/03/21/trading_down_can_help_hurt/



Trading Down Can Help, Hurt
Mar 21, 2008, 3:54:21 AM by Bob Gretz - FAQ

Buyer beware. But the same goes for the seller, especially when what’s being sold is position in the first round of the NFL Draft.

There’s been a lot of talk around Arrowhead Stadium about the Chiefs fifth spot in the first round and the desire to trade down from that spot. The idea of course is to pick up extra picks, especially those in the money rounds like the second and third.

History, however, has shown the Chiefs have seldom gotten anything out of trading down in the first round.

Dropping in the round only works if those extra draft picks acquired in a trade pay off in talent. In three cases since 1989, the Chiefs have traded down in the first round. In total, the deals resulted in 10 draft choices with seven extra picks

Yet, two of those seven never played a regular season game for the Chiefs; one never even played a pre-season game. And, if you knew that the best performer among those seven added choices was wide receiver Samie Parker, would that tell you trading down isn’t always the way to go.

It’s the good, the bad and the ugly when it has come to the Chiefs trading down in the first round.

GOOD/2003
The Chiefs traded the 16th selection in the first round to Pittsburgh. In exchange, they received the Steelers first-round choice (27th), third-round selection (92nd) and sixth round pick (200th).

Pittsburgh drafted safety Troy Polamalu at No. 16.

The Chiefs selected running back Larry Johnson and cornerback Julian Battle. They traded the sixth-round selection to the New York Jets in a deal that produced defensive lineman Jimmy Wilkerson.

While not without its warts, this deal worked out for the Chiefs. After a non-descript start to his career, Johnson has proven himself to be among the best running backs in the NFL. He enters the 2008 season having played in 56 games and running for 4,764 yards and 56 career touchdowns.

Battle was a bust on the cornerback, playing in 26 games over two seasons, with one start. He had 13 defensive tackles and seven tackles on special teams. This was especially hurtful because it came at a time when the Chiefs were trying desperately to fill holes on the corner. They ended up spending big money and draft choices in trading for Pat Surtain and then spending even more free agent dollars in signing Ty Law for two seasons.

Wilkerson played in 72 games with five starts over five seasons. He had one sack and 97 total tackles, along with 41 tackles on special teams, including 13 last season. He recently signed as an unrestricted free agent with Tampa Bay.

Among the players the Chiefs did not get a chance to draft because they moved down were Polamalu, linebacker Calvin Pace, center Jeff Faine, quarterback Rex Grossman, running back Willis McGahee and tight end Dallas Clark.

BAD/2004
The Chiefs traded the 30th choice in the first round to Detroit. In exchange they received the Lions second-round pick (36th), fourth round choice (105th) and a fifth-round selection in 2005.

Detroit drafted running back Kevin Jones at No. 30.

The Chiefs selected defensive tackle Junior Siavii, wide receiver Samie Parker and in the 2005 draft they drafted cornerback Alphonso Hodge.

Ouch! Siavii proved to be one of several wasted defensive tackle choices from the Vermeil Era drafts. He played in 26 games, contributing 27 tackles and one sack. He’s not played again in the NFL after the Chiefs released him in the 2006 pre-season.

Parker played four non-descript seasons with the Chiefs, appearing in 47 games with 31 starts. He had 110 catches for 1,529 yards and seven touchdowns. As the other receiver with Eddie Kennison, Parker was too inconsistent to become a major threat in the offense where he was usually the fourth receiving option behind Tony Gonzalez, Kennison and when he was healthy, Priest Holmes.

Hodge never played in a regular season game for the Chiefs, and has not played for anyone else.

By moving down, the Chiefs missed out on six players, including a couple of good ones in linebacker Karlos Dansby, guard Chris Snee and defensive tackle Igor Olshansky.

UGLY/1995
The Chiefs traded the 19th selection in the first round to Jacksonville. In exchange, they received the Jaguars first-round choice (31st), third-round pick (97th), fourth-round selection (134) and a 1996 fourth-round choice.

Jacksonville drafted running back James Stewart at No. 19.

The Chiefs selected tackle Trezelle Jenkins, linebacker Troy Dumas and quarterback Steve Stenstrom. The ‘96 choice was packaged with another choice and traded away in a separate deal the next season that helped the Chiefs trade up to get linebacker Donnie Edwards in the fourth round.

Other than providing some help to get Edwards, the deal was a disaster for the Chiefs. Jenkins rates as one of the greatest draft day busts in franchise history. In three seasons he played in nine games and made one start. Two weeks after that single start, he was released and he never again played in the league.

Dumas played 14 games with the Chiefs in 1996-97, contributing 14 tackles on special teams. He played two games in the ‘98 season with St. Louis.

Stenstrom never played a down for the Chiefs. He missed his entire rookie training camp and pre-season in a contract holdout. Eventually he was signed after the season started, then released, in hopes that he could be placed on the practice squad. But Stenstrom was claimed on waivers by Chicago and he ended up playing 17 games and starting 10 over three seasons with the Bears and 49ers. In his career he had four touchdown passes against 12 interceptions.

Among those players that the Chiefs did not get a chance to draft in the first round by dropping from 19th to 31st were defensive end Luther Ellis, cornerback Ty Law, tight end Mark Bruener and linebacker Derrick Brooks. Those 12 players played an average of 115 games in the NFL, with Law, Bruener and Brooks still active last season.

The three players acquired by the Chiefs in the deal played a total of 23 games.

AFTERMATH
So in those three deals we can tie nine players directly to the Chiefs. Only three became starters (Edwards, Johnson and Parker.) Only one was a frequently used backup (Wilkerson.) The other six played in a total of 75 games with two starts. That’s an average of 12.5 games per those six players, or not even a full season of 16 games.

Seller beware.

the Talking Can
03-21-2008, 05:36 AM
Gretz is a fat piece of shit who should kill himself for writing this crap.


"TV: Some good shows, some bad ones"
- Gretz

mikey23545
03-21-2008, 06:46 AM
Gretz is a fat piece of shit who should kill himself for writing this crap.


"TV: Some good shows, some bad ones"
- Gretz

Oh for ****s sake....Is every article supposed to have the secret of ****ing life in it?

Some of you people should really just bleed out through your vaginas and get it over with.

Deberg_1990
03-21-2008, 06:48 AM
Sickening to think we drafted Trezelle Jenkins when we could have had a young Ty Law or Derrick Brooks.

Jenkins was so overvalued by the Chiefs, id be willing to bet he would have lasted to the 2nd or 3rd round if we would not have taken him.

Infidel Goat
03-21-2008, 06:49 AM
I can't believe he couldn't prove that trading up or down was always the right answer. Is he implying that there isn't a firm science to drafting?

My whole world view is shaken to its very core. I'm getting my blanket. If you are looking for me, I'll be in a corner--gently rocking myself in the fetal position.

King_Chief_Fan
03-21-2008, 06:52 AM
The constant in all those selections have been Carl Peterson. Blame it on the coaches if you want, but I think Peterson had quite a hand in those.

JBucc
03-21-2008, 06:56 AM
Most babies were dropped off by a stork. Gretz was shit out by Godzilla.

TEX
03-21-2008, 07:00 AM
Sickening to think we drafted Trezelle Jenkins when we could have had a young Ty Law or Derrick Brooks.

Jenkins was so overvalued by the Chiefs, id be willing to bet he would have lasted to the 2nd or 3rd round if we would not have taken him.

I was watching that draft and yelled ,"WTF!" When we made the pick, Jenkins wasn't even on the radar. I remember I wanted the Chiefs to draft Armini Toomer at the time who was still available.

Infidel Goat
03-21-2008, 07:05 AM
I was watching that draft and yelled ,"WTF!" When we made the pick, Jenkins wasn't even on the radar. I remember I wanted the Chiefs to draft Armini Toomer at the time who was still available.

Thankfully the NFL put an ix-nay to the negotiating with a player while your team was one the clock. IIRC, Peterson took Jenkins in part because he verbally agreed to a contract while we were on the clock while other players would not.

Reerun_KC
03-21-2008, 07:09 AM
Everytime Gretz opens his mouth, All I can think of is

http://www.e-pix.org/data/media/77/not_this_shit_again.jpg

TEX
03-21-2008, 07:16 AM
Thankfully the NFL put an ix-nay to the negotiating with a player while your team was one the clock. IIRC, Peterson took Jenkins in part because he verbally agreed to a contract while we were on the clock while other players would not.

Yep. He was SURPRISED AS HELL to be going in round 1. :shake:
Right when CP called him, he probably answered the phone saying,"Yes - I'll Sign ANYTHNG!"

siberian khatru
03-21-2008, 07:40 AM
http://www.uss-rangerguy.com/eags/Drmmith_a.jpg

Oh, the pain ... the PAIN!

the Talking Can
03-21-2008, 07:44 AM
Oh for ****s sake....Is every article supposed to have the secret of ****ing life in it?

Some of you people should really just bleed out through your vaginas and get it over with.

hi Mrs. Gretz, sorry for expecting a writer to write something interesting....how dare i....

chief husker
03-21-2008, 07:47 AM
Oh for ****s sake....Is every article supposed to have the secret of ****ing life in it?

Some of you people should really just bleed out through your vaginas and get it over with.

No shit. At this point in the season, I'll even read drivel from Gretz.

Reerun_KC
03-21-2008, 08:15 AM
No shit. At this point in the season, I'll even read drivel from Gretz.
That is about all we get anyway from him, just a little dribble on his chin that Carl left him....

This guys is a hack....

Duck Dog
03-21-2008, 08:32 AM
The good:

Troy Polamalu for LJ. Sounds more like a push even though I'd take a healthy LJ over TP.

Anyway, I'm a little surprised Gretz would help illustrate how bad CP is making deals, drafting and evaluating players.

Mr. Laz
03-21-2008, 10:15 AM
it's not so much where you draft as it is HOW you draft.

good talent evaluations know which players to draft so they also have a better idea about WHEN they need to draft.

trade up for player "A"
trade down for player "B"

if you properly evaluate player "A" and "B" both situations can work out.

BigChiefFan
03-21-2008, 10:18 AM
it's not so much where you draft as it is HOW you draft.

good talent evaluations know which players to draft so they also have a better idea about WHEN they need to draft.

trade up for player "A"
trade down for player "B"

if you properly evaluate player "A" and "B" both situations can work out.:clap:

Spectre
03-21-2008, 11:06 AM
It doesn't matter, the Chiefs FO will manage to screw up the picks either way. They rival the Raiders for worst drafting in the AFC west.

Bowser
03-21-2008, 11:13 AM
Sickening to think we drafted Trezelle Jenkins when we could have had a young Ty Law or Derrick Brooks.

Jenkins was so overvalued by the Chiefs, id be willing to bet he would have lasted to the 2nd or 3rd round if we would not have taken him.

I remember, quite clearly, Mel Kiper saying he had Jenkins rated as a fifth round draft pick.

It would have been a real shame to have Ty Law or Derrick Brooks learning the ropes from a Derrick Thomas and James Hasty. :shake:

ChiefsCountry
03-21-2008, 11:49 AM
Sickening to think we drafted Trezelle Jenkins when we could have had a young Ty Law or Derrick Brooks.

Jenkins was so overvalued by the Chiefs, id be willing to bet he would have lasted to the 2nd or 3rd round if we would not have taken him.

Jenkins techincally should have been a second round choice where he was picked. That year the NFL gave the Jaggies and Panthers an extra first round pick so #31 where he was picked should have been in the second round.

BIG K
03-21-2008, 12:53 PM
http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2008/03/21/trading_down_can_help_hurt/



Trading Down Can Help, Hurt
Mar 21, 2008, 3:54:21 AM by Bob Gretz - FAQ

Seller beware.


Yeah, your right Gretz. The Chiefs should stay the course where they have had incredible sucess in the past right? Yep, the Chief's are absolute stalwarts at this draft thing when they don't trade down....Like it ******* matters where the Chiefs draft.......

:shake:

DaneMcCloud
03-21-2008, 01:19 PM
Gretz is a fat piece of shit who should kill himself for writing this crap.


"TV: Some good shows, some bad ones"
- Gretz


JFC guys. I think Gretz is Carl Peterson's personal fluffer but it's not like HE posted this article on the Chiefsplanet.

There are very few Chiefs fans that are as informed and into the process as many of the forum members here. His articles are for the dumbsh*t "regular" fan, not super fans.

Marcellus
03-21-2008, 02:11 PM
Oh for ****s sake....Is every article supposed to have the secret of ****ing life in it?

Some of you people should really just bleed out through your vaginas and get it over with.

ROFLROFLROFL

Rain Man
03-21-2008, 02:44 PM
This was a very insightful article, if you have an IQ of 79 and have never seen American football or been exposed to math.

SBK
03-21-2008, 06:08 PM
You know, with all the talk about trading down that the Chiefs have put out, I almost wonder if they're thinking about moving up.....

Deberg_1990
03-21-2008, 06:14 PM
Jenkins techincally should have been a second round choice where he was picked. That year the NFL gave the Jaggies and Panthers an extra first round pick so #31 where he was picked should have been in the second round.


Yep, your right...i had forgotten about that.

Still, its hard to defend the Jenkins pick any way you slice it. Even Siavii had a better NFL career

ChiefsCountry
03-21-2008, 06:18 PM
Yep, your right...i had forgotten about that.

Still, its hard to defend the Jenkins pick any way you slice it. Even Siavii had a better NFL career

I would never defend that pick.

BIG K
03-21-2008, 06:23 PM
You know, with all the talk about trading down that the Chiefs have put out, I almost wonder if they're thinking about moving up.....

That would be a disaster. The way the Chief's draft, they need to trade down in every round and gather about 40 extra picks just so they can net 3 or 4 starters....
:grr:

milkman
03-22-2008, 08:20 AM
Players selected in the same round after the Chiefs picks in trade downs.

2004

36 Junior Siavii DT Oregon Kansas City Chiefs
37 Teddy Lehman OLB Oklahoma Detroit Lions
38 Ricardo Colclough CB Tusculum Pittsburgh Steelers
39 Daryl Smith OLB Georgia Tech Jacksonville Jaguars
40 Ben Troupe TE Florida Tennessee Titans
41 Tatum Bell RB Oklahoma State Denver Broncos
42 Travis LaBoy DE Hawaii Tennessee Titans
43 Julius Jones RB Notre Dame Dallas Cowboys
44 Bob Sanders DB Iowa Indianapolis Colts
45 Jake Grove G Virginia Tech Oakland Raiders
46 Justin Smiley G Alabama San Francisco 49ers
47 Tank Johnson DT Washington Chicago Bears
48 Dontarrious Thomas OLB Auburn Minnesota Vikings
49 Keiwan Ratliff CB Florida Cincinnati Bengals
50 Devery Henderson WR Louisiana State New Orleans Saints
51 Dwan Edwards DT Oregon State Baltimore Ravens
52 Jacob Rogers T USC Dallas Cowboys
53 Michael Boulware DB Florida State Seattle Seahawks
54 Darius Watts WR Marshall Denver Broncos
55 Greg Jones RB Florida State Jacksonville Jaguars
56 Madieu Williams FS Maryland Cincinnati Bengals
57 Antwan Odom DE Alabama Tennessee Titans
58 Shawntae Spencer CB Pittsburgh San Francisco 49ers
59 Sean Jones SAF Georgia Cleveland Browns
60 Courtney Watson MLB Notre Dame New Orleans Saints
61 Kris Wilson TE Pittsburgh Kansas City Chiefs
62 Keary Colbert WR USC Carolina Panthers
63 Marquise Hill DE Louisiana State New England Patriots
----------------------------------------------------------

105 Samie Parker WR Oregon Kansas City Chiefs
106 Luke McCown QB Louisiana Tech Cleveland Browns
107 Kendyll Pope LB Florida State Indianapolis Colts
108 Jerricho Cotchery WR North Carolina State New York Jets
109 Tim Euhus TE Oregon State Buffalo Bills
110 Nathan Vasher CB Texas Chicago Bears
111 Will Allen SAF Ohio State Tampa Bay Buccaneers
112 Leon Joe LB Maryland Chicago Bears
113 Dexter Reid SAF North Carolina New England Patriots
114 Matthias Askew DT Michigan State Cincinnati Bengals
115 Nat Dorsey T Georgia Tech Minnesota Vikings
116 Niko Koutouvides LB Purdue Seattle Seahawks
117 Robert Geathers DE Georgia Cincinnati Bengals
118 Anthony Maddox DT Delta State Jacksonville Jaguars
119 Mewelde Moore RB Tulane Minnesota Vikings
120 Ernest Wilford WR Virginia Tech Jacksonville Jaguars
121 Bruce Thornton CB Georgia Dallas Cowboys
122 Glenn Earl SS Notre Dame Houston Texans
123 Stacy Andrews T Mississippi Cincinnati Bengals
124 Michael Waddell CB North Carolina Tennessee Titans
125 Jason David CB Washington State Indianapolis Colts
126 Jared Allen DE Idaho State Kansas City Chiefs
127 Richard Seigler LB Oregon State San Francisco 49ers
128 Cedric Cobbs RB Arkansas New England Patriots
129 J.R. Reed DB South Florida Philadelphia Eagles
130 Brandon Chillar OLB UCLA St. Louis Rams
131 Trey Darilek T Texas-El Paso Philadelphia Eagles
132 Adrian Jones T Kansas New York Jets

milkman
03-22-2008, 08:24 AM
2003

92 Julian Battle CB Tennessee Kansas City Chiefs
93 Chris Brown RB Colorado Tennessee Titans
94 Angelo Crowell LB Virginia Buffalo Bills
95 Billy McMullen WR Virginia Philadelphia Eagles
96 Justin Fargas RB USC Oakland Raiders
97 Chris Simms QB Texas Tampa Bay Buccaneers

milkman
03-22-2008, 08:30 AM
1995

97 Troy Dumas LB Nebraska Kansas City Chiefs
98 Preston Harrison -- Ohio State San Diego Chargers
(last pick in the second round)
The first 5 picks in the third went like this.

99 Rob Johnson QB USC Jacksonville Jaguars
100 Chris Cowart -- Florida State San Diego Chargers
101 Michael Roan TE Wisconsin Houston Oilers
102 Sam Shade SAF Alabama Cincinnati Bengals
103 Larry Jones RB Miami (Fla.) Washington Redskins
------------------------------------------------------

Steve Stenstrom was the last pick in the 4th round
The first 5 picks in the fifth round went like this.

Team
135 Mike Senters CB Northwestern Carolina Panthers
136 Tau Pupua DT Weber State Cleveland Browns
137 Jamie Asher TE Louisville Washington Redskins
138 Matt Dyson LB Michigan Oakland Raiders
139 David Dunn WR Fresno State Cincinnati Bengals

philfree
03-22-2008, 08:50 AM
There's a pretty good illustration when you look at the players the Chiefs let go when they traded down. Why did the Chiefs trade down? They traded down to to draft a lessar talent that filled a position of need. They were drafting for need. Well we see how that worked out. I hope we don't try to tarde down again if J. Long is off the board. We need to stay at #5 and pick the best player/prospect on the board. McFadden, Ellis, Gohlston, who ever it is. Stay put and stick to the draft board. This early in the draft their draft board can't be to screwed up. Can it?

PhilFree:arrow:

milkman
03-22-2008, 09:12 AM
When I look at the players selected after Siavii in '04, it makes me want to take a cheese grater to Carl, Dick, and Gunt's testicles.

whoman69
03-22-2008, 09:39 AM
Trading down has only hurt us because of Pederson's inability to draft talent. By using that reasoning we should trade away all our picks because most likely we would be wasting them anyway. Pederson has always placed too much emphasis on athleticism and not enough on game film.

Deberg_1990
03-22-2008, 09:58 AM
When I look at the players selected after Siavii in '04, it makes me want to take a cheese grater to Carl, Dick, and Gunt's testicles.

*cough* Bob Sanders *cough*

milkman
03-22-2008, 10:12 AM
*cough* Bob Sanders *cough*

Tank Johnson.

Hell, Ben Troupe and Madeau Williams.

There's 5 or 6 guys between Siavii and Kris Wilson that would have been better picks.

BIG K
03-22-2008, 10:35 AM
In retrospect, the title of Gretz article should be " Drafting usually hurts the Chiefs"

milkman
03-22-2008, 10:39 AM
In retrospect, the title of Gretz article should be " Drafting usually hurts the Chiefs"

carl can't draft, so the Chiefs don't rock 'n roll.

melbar
03-22-2008, 10:53 AM
I just cant believe how many times the Chiefs have made a pick that every list has pegged as being 3-5 rounds later than when they pick them. I spend way too much on Draft magazines, studying all the players and where they should go in comparison to each other and the draft experts. I get so mad when we draft some guy in the 3rd or 4th that isnt even listed by any of them! They always act a little too smart for their own good. I've never seen them reach for a player and it work out. Again, it goes back to how well you evaluate talent. Maybe they could "borrow" Mayock or Athons, or almost anyone elses board?!

mrpopo
03-22-2008, 11:31 AM
I just cant believe how many times the Chiefs have made a pick that every list has pegged as being 3-5 rounds later than when they pick them. I spend way too much on Draft magazines, studying all the players and where they should go in comparison to each other and the draft experts. I get so mad when we draft some guy in the 3rd or 4th that isnt even listed by any of them! They always act a little too smart for their own good. I've never seen them reach for a player and it work out. Again, it goes back to how well you evaluate talent. Maybe they could "borrow" Mayock or Athons, or almost anyone elses board?!

yep, maybe we should steal another teams BPA list ;)

Mecca
03-22-2008, 11:38 AM
The good:

Troy Polamalu for LJ. Sounds more like a push even though I'd take a healthy LJ over TP.

Anyway, I'm a little surprised Gretz would help illustrate how bad CP is making deals, drafting and evaluating players.

I disagree with this, RB is an easier position to find and Polamalu will still be a productive player when LJ no longer is, Polamalu will have a much longer and more productive career.

oaklandhater
03-22-2008, 01:40 PM
When I look at the players selected after Siavii in '04, it makes me want to take a cheese grater to Carl, Dick, and Gunt's testicles.

I remember geting slamed for saything the exact same thing that draft on this bord.