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View Full Version : Repubs: Who's easier to beat in GE?


Carlota69
03-25-2008, 01:50 PM
WASHINGTON (AFP) - Buoyed by recent polls favoring John McCain to win the White House, Republicans are sharpening their knives while wondering which Democrat would be easier to beat in November.

For months, Republican strategists have delighted over the prospect of facing off with Hillary Clinton, believing that she would be easier to beat than her Democratic rival, Barack Obama.

But things have changed since the Obama campaign was engulfed in controversy over embarrassing statements by his former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, whose fiery sermons have been called anti-American.

The former first lady and New York senator is one of the most popular women in the United States but she inspires intense hostility in some quarters.

A poll published in mid-March by the Wall Street Journal said that while 45 percent of Americans hold a positive opinion of Clinton, almost as many -- 43 percent -- dislike her.

In the same poll, 51 percent respondents liked Obama and only 28 percent had a negative view of him.

Then came the Wright affair. The former pastor at a Chicago church Obama attends, Wright is seen as the senator's spiritual mentor. He officiated at Obama's wedding and baptized his two daughters.

But in angry sermons endlessly replayed on television and the Internet, Wright is seen saying that American "terrorism" brought about the attacks of September 11, 2001.

Wright also argues African-Americans should sing "God Damn America" to protest their treatment.

Obama was left to explain the "inexcusable" statements of his former pastor, while polls showed his support sinking.

"The Reverend Wright matter has highlighted the enormous cultural distance between a large share of black Americans, and most white Americans," said James Gimpel, a professor of political science at the University of Maryland.

"I'm not sure that many white Americans were aware of this distance before, and it has greatly alarmed them," he said.

"Even if the Jeremiah Wright controversy went away tomorrow, it underscores one of Obama's biggest vulnerabilities," said Dan Schnur, a Republican strategist who worked for McCain during his 2000 presidential campaign.

In a recent opinion published in the New York Times, Schnur warned Republicans not to underestimate Clinton as an adversary in November. Obama would be easier for Republicans to beat, he said.

Republicans have been preparing for a general election battle against the Illinois senator, who leads in the Democratic delegate count.

Republican party spokesman Paul Lindsay has said that Republicans will paint him as out of step with American values and inexperienced in foreign and national security affairs.

But Republicans are wrong if they think Obama would be easier to beat, said Eric Davis, a professor of political science at Middlebury College in Vermont.

"Unless Obama's numbers in the polls drop precipitously in the next couple of months, Clinton would have a harder time defeating McCain than Obama," Davis said.

"Clinton will unite the Republican party more than anything John McCain can do," he said, due to Republican animosity toward the former first lady.

On the other hand she would have a hard time uniting Democrats because, if she is nominated, "it will only be because the superdelegates went against the preference of the voters as expressed in the primaries and caucuses," he said.

"I continue to believe that Obama would be the stronger Democratic candidate," Davis said.

HolmeZz
03-25-2008, 01:59 PM
I'm not a Republican, but it's Hillary and it's not particularly close. Obama will generate more turnout and Hillary will have alienated more potential Democratic voters if she stole the nomination from Obama.

Carlota69
03-25-2008, 02:04 PM
I'm not a Republican, but it's Hillary and it's not particularly close. Obama will generate more turnout and Hillary will have alienated more potential Democratic voters if she stole the nomination from Obama.

I agree, Hillary isn't the biggest 'uniter", but repubs haven't knocked her out yet, and they have been trying.

I'm just curious if Obama can truly survive this Wright thing. If he does, there's no beating him.

thought the article was interesting.

BucEyedPea
03-25-2008, 02:09 PM
I think it will be a dog-fight simply because there's a lot of people fed-up with the Pubs.
I think Iraq news will be buried unless it favors the Pubs. That will mostly be Fox though.

But who can say exactly. It's just my guess.

patteeu
03-25-2008, 02:09 PM
I think it's Obama.

Hillary would have some big challenges to overcome. To get the nomination, she'd have pissed off people who want the pledged delegates to be determinative and those blacks who, above all, want to see a black man become president, but I think many of those people will end up voting for Hillary anyway.

If Barack wins, his reputation as being above politics is tarnished, he's pissed off those feminists who, above all, want to see a woman become president, and he's created concern among people who are apprehensive about what kinds of policies a person whose preacher is a black radical would pursue. I think more of these people would defect to the Republicans or stay home because many of them aren't as central to the democrat constituency as the black demographic is.

I also think that Obama's bloom is off the rose in that he's been continually exposed as a typical politician which takes away one of his most persuasive selling points.

I could be wrong though. :shrug:

HolmeZz
03-25-2008, 02:10 PM
but repubs haven't knocked her out yet, and they have been trying.

I keep hearing that and I have no idea what it means.

Carlota69
03-25-2008, 02:16 PM
I think it's Obama.

Hillary would have some big challenges to overcome. To get the nomination, she'd have pissed off people who want the pledged delegates to be determinative and those blacks who, above all, want to see a black man become president, but I think many of those people will end up voting for Hillary anyway.

If Barack wins, his reputation as being above politics is tarnished, he's pissed off those feminists who, above all, want to see a woman become president, and he's created concern among people who are apprehensive about what kinds of policies a person whose preacher is a black radical would pursue. I think more of these people would defect to the Republicans or stay home because many of them aren't as central to the democrat constituency as the black demographic is.

I also think that Obama's bloom is off the rose in that he's been continually exposed as a typical politician which takes away one of his most persuasive selling points.

I could be wrong though. :shrug:

I also think it will be ugly if Hillary gets the nod over Obama ( I dont see that happening, but weirder shit has happened).

Would Dems really stay home or vote MCcain if HRC was the Nominee? Its easy to say that yes right now, but when it comes Nov, would Dems really vote for a Repub?

Even though I kind of like MCain, "The Maverick", I would vote Dem. Aside from econmics, Iraq etc.. The Supreme Court appointments are important to me.

HolmeZz
03-25-2008, 02:16 PM
I could be wrong though. :shrug:

That's usually the case when you're trying your hardest to convince yourself of something. You suffered the same illusions about Mitt.

Carlota69
03-25-2008, 02:18 PM
I keep hearing that and I have no idea what it means.

She's still standing. They've been attacking her since her days in the WH. They've ben throwing punches ever since I can remember and She's still here. Wobbly granted, but still here.

HolmeZz
03-25-2008, 02:28 PM
She's still standing. They've been attacking her since her days in the WH. They've ben throwing punches ever since I can remember and She's still here. Wobbly granted, but still here.

Yes, I love a good boxing analogy as much as anybody, I just don't see where it applies. The Republicans did a fine job getting half the country to hate her despite the fact she was married to a fairly popular President who cheated on her while in office. She should, in theory, be wiping the floor with Obama. He's new on the scene and shouldn't have been able to out-organize and out-raise the machine she has behind her. Her problem is that she's incredibly flawed and the Bosnia flap exemplifies that; whoever it was in her campaign that decided it'd be a good idea to compound a lie with a lie with another lie should be fired.

Was she supposed to disappear from the face of the Earth? If that's the criteria, I'd agree that the Republicans have failed. :p

HonestChieffan
03-25-2008, 02:32 PM
The party will fall into a dogfight if this thing is thrown to the super delegates. Todays notion from a Florida congressman that the party may turn to a new player like Gore is very real.

Obamas now seen as very vulnerable. He has lost the momentum. Now we are seeing his days of Hope and Change speeches have moved to real questions about him, his judgement, his proposals, and his beliefs. Great fear has emerged about just what does he believe. Does he harbor the same racial feelings that his Church of 20 years professes? Has he covered up the real Obama and if so, do we know enough to trust him in the White House? Then when the focus turns to his public agenda, not the one we really dont know about, how can anyone buy his proposals and what will he do to pay for them?

Hillary is clearly more mainstream, more able to address people without tons of baggage, and with a bit of effort can pick a VP that could firm up her efforts. Even with her disapproval rating, she would seem to be the right pick for the democrats. Obama is not able to bring enough voters on the plus side and would inspire a huge anti vote.

HolmeZz
03-25-2008, 02:35 PM
Hillary is clearly more mainstream, more able to address people without tons of baggage, and with a bit of effort can pick a VP that could firm up her efforts. Even with her disapproval rating, she would seem to be the right pick for the democrats.

Obama must be doing something right. He's got right wing loons in bed with Hillary.

jettio
03-25-2008, 02:35 PM
The GOP has a real good shot to finish ahead of Ralph Nader and Cynthia McKinney.

Considering the economy and the GOP track record when having the Presidency and majorities, McCain will never get as far ahead of Obama as Kerry was ahead of B*sh in 2004, and McCain willl get beaten by a much higher margin.

Carlota69
03-25-2008, 02:37 PM
Yes, I love a good boxing analogy as much as anybody, I just don't see where it applies. The Republicans did a fine job getting half the country to hate her despite the fact she was married to a fairly popular President who cheated on her while in office. She should, in theory, be wiping the floor with Obama. He's new on the scene and shouldn't have been able to out-organize and out-raise the machine she has behind her. Her problem is that she's incredibly flawed and the Bosnia flap exemplifies that; whoever it was in her campaign that decided it'd be a good idea to compound a lie with a lie with another lie should be fired.

Was she supposed to disappear from the face of the Earth? If that's the criteria, I'd agree that the Republicans have failed. :p

I think the fact that she is despised by 43% of the country is her fault. However, 'Whitewater", "Travelgate" "Vince Foster" and everything else the Repubs threw at her (and Bill), She should be dead in the water, and she isnt. Wiping the floors, with all that scandal that repubs kept in the forefront? I think not. She should be out of Washington, but here she is, taking punches still.

She was supposed to be dead after NH, and then after Texas etc...but she isn't.

Bitch wont die!!!

wazu
03-25-2008, 03:01 PM
I used to be convinced Obama would be unbeatable, but the words "God damn America" are going to be awfully difficult to escape.

BucEyedPea
03-25-2008, 03:11 PM
If Barack wins, his reputation as being above politics is tarnished...
To certain folks...folks like you and other like-minded GOP'ers. That's an obvious given.

memyselfI
03-25-2008, 03:13 PM
I think Obama will be a cakewalk for McCain. I could be wrong but I see people giving McCain the BOTD because of his service, POW status, and even his age. Baarack will have long spent his BOTD quota by the time of the General Election.

dirk digler
03-25-2008, 03:18 PM
If it is Hillary McCain will win by double digits. If it is Obama McCain will lose by double digits.

Also this notion that Obama's momentum has stopped is kind of silly. He was virtually tied last week in NC and now is up by 21 pts. Also his national numbers are back up and climbing.

Also Obama just released all of his tax returns and all of his Rezko and loan documents from purchasing his house. He has addressed the Wright issue so unless there is something else in the closet IMO he is going to win the nomination.

As far as McCain goes, the general public still hasn't found out anything about Cindy McCain issues like whoring herself out and stealing money for her drug habits and her husband using his leverage to get a sweet deal for her. Would anyone want a drug whore as the first lady?

HolmeZz
03-25-2008, 05:24 PM
I used to be convinced Obama would be unbeatable, but the words "God damn America" are going to be awfully difficult to escape.

The people intent on the guilt-by-association attacks against Obama weren't going to be voting for him to begin with.

DaneMcCloud
03-25-2008, 05:31 PM
Personally, I think that people who feel McCain has a chance in hell to win in November are way out of touch.

I may be completely wrong but ALL of the people I know across this country - black, white, Asian and Hispanic - regardless of previous political affiliation are voting Democratic, specifically for Obama.

McCain is old, dodgey and wants to be in Iraq for the next 100 years. That is going to touch a HUGE nerve with parents and especially older parents of young children in their 40's.

I had dinner with a staunchly conservative Republican (and his family) from New York recently who said in no way, shape or form would he vote for McCain simply because he does not want his 18 month old, only son (he and his wife are 40 years old) OR his grandchildren to serve in Iraq.

I truly think this will be an even bigger issue as November approaches.

Brock
03-25-2008, 05:39 PM
Clinton is hated by half of her own party and all of the other one.

It's not too hard to figure what would happen.

jAZ
03-25-2008, 05:40 PM
Not trying to dispute the overall point here, but this (in bold) comment is completely wrong.
...repubs haven't knocked her out yet, and they have been trying.
They have been trying to keep her in this race (see Limbaugh's efforts to get Republicans to vote for her in the primary).

HonestChieffan
03-25-2008, 05:51 PM
Personally, I think that people who feel McCain has a chance in hell to win in November are way out of touch.

I may be completely wrong but ALL of the people I know across this country - black, white, Asian and Hispanic - regardless of previous political affiliation are voting Democratic, specifically for Obama.

McCain is old, dodgey and wants to be in Iraq for the next 100 years. That is going to touch a HUGE nerve with parents and especially older parents of young children in their 40's.

I had dinner with a staunchly conservative Republican (and his family) from New York recently who said in no way, shape or form would he vote for McCain simply because he does not want his 18 month old, only son (he and his wife are 40 years old) OR his grandchildren to serve in Iraq.

I truly think this will be an even bigger issue as November approaches.


This all makes good sense when I see its from Hollywood.

HonestChieffan
03-25-2008, 05:51 PM
Not trying to dispute the overall point here, but this (in bold) comment is completely wrong.

They have been trying to keep her in this race (see Limbaugh's efforts to get Republicans to vote for her in the primary).

Do you believe Limbaugh has that much ability to sway voters?

Rain Man
03-25-2008, 06:44 PM
Is it just me, or are the two Democratic candidates systematically destroying each other? At this point, all McCain has to do to win is not start killing kittens on stage.

Seriously, the Democratic Party leaders need to step in and stop the carnage. The battle to be the nominee within the party should be a polite battle so the winner isn't bleeding from the jugular when they step into the ring with the Republicans. Anything else is the value of individual power over the philosophies and values of the party.

keg in kc
03-25-2008, 06:51 PM
The only chance the democrats have to gain the White House is if Obama wins the nom. If it ends up being Hillary, it's going to be a slaughter of biblical proportions. She has no chance of even being in the running in the GE, much less winning it.

It's amazing to the me that McCain might win, it's like the democratic party took "how to destroy your public image" lessons from post 9-11 W. It should be a cakewalk and it won't be.

Rain Man
03-25-2008, 06:57 PM
The only chance the democrats have to gain the White House is if Obama wins the nom. If it ends up being Hillary, it's going to be a slaughter of biblical proportions. She has no chance of even being in the running in the GE, much less winning it.

It's amazing to the me that McCain might win, it's like the democratic party took "how to destroy your public image" lessons from post 9-11 W. It should be a cakewalk and it won't be.

I'm always surprised when I see a Hillary sign in a yard. It's so hard to imagine anyone voting for her that I'm always surprised to see support. I guess she somehow has the support of a significant number of Democrats, though, and she would obviously get all of the straight-line voters in a general election. Even so, I would hope that she would end up behind Ross Perot, the Libertarians, the Prohibition Party, and the "Donald Duck" write-ins in the voting.

keg in kc
03-25-2008, 07:11 PM
I'm always surprised when I see a Hillary sign in a yard. It's so hard to imagine anyone voting for her that I'm always surprised to see support. I guess she somehow has the support of a significant number of Democrats, though, and she would obviously get all of the straight-line voters in a general election. Even so, I would hope that she would end up behind Ross Perot, the Libertarians, the Prohibition Party, and the "Donald Duck" write-ins in the voting.My personal favorites are the "Don't blame me, I voted for bush" stickers. Still see them here in the midwest from time-to-time, and they have a whole different meaning now, lmao.

I don't know a whole lot of people who support Clinton (I don't know many democrats for that matter). Almost all the ones that I do know are women. Which is neither a good thing or a bad thing, in my mind, just a statement of fact. I'm not sure why that is, if they identify with her as a fellow female, or if they identify with what she purportedly stands for. I find it hard to see how anybody could follow her, frankly, because I think she reeks of deceipt and dishonesty, and I've thought that for a very long time.

In any case, the very fact that the right in general has tried so hard to make sure she's the opponent tells me she's the lesser 'threat' in their eyes. You don't openly support someone you don't think you can spank.

Eww, now there's a mental image I didn't need.

patteeu
03-25-2008, 07:47 PM
McCain is old, dodgey and wants to be in Iraq for the next 100 years. That is going to touch a HUGE nerve with parents and especially older parents of young children in their 40's.

Do you have McCain and Obama mixed up? McCain is the old white guy. Obama is the dark skinned fellow with the victimhood-preaching pastor and a prominent general supporting him who said we'd be in Iraq for 100 years if everything goes right.

Messier
03-25-2008, 08:35 PM
Do you have McCain and Obama mixed up? McCain is the old white guy. Obama is the dark skinned fellow with the victimhood-preaching pastor and a prominent general supporting him who said we'd be in Iraq for 100 years if everything goes right.


No, McCain himself said we will be there for 100 years if we need to.

Logical
03-25-2008, 09:07 PM
Hillary no questioon, but in the end McCain will defeat McCain, he better enjoy this moment in the sunshine.

jAZ
03-25-2008, 09:15 PM
Do you believe Limbaugh has that much ability to sway voters?

It's an idea that sells itself, he just runs the ad on a loop day after day. It doesn't take that much "sway".

If you are asking, does he have that much reach? Yes, he has, what? 15-20,000,000 listeners?

alanm
03-25-2008, 10:25 PM
Is it just me, or are the two Democratic candidates systematically destroying each other? At this point, all McCain has to do to win is not start killing kittens on stage.

Seriously, the Democratic Party leaders need to step in and stop the carnage. The battle to be the nominee within the party should be a polite battle so the winner isn't bleeding from the jugular when they step into the ring with the Republicans. Anything else is the value of individual power over the philosophies and values of the party.
It won't be over until they make Hillary tap out. Literally ROFL

SBK
03-25-2008, 10:44 PM
This is a year that the democrats should win running away. However, I don't think that Obama or Hillary is capable of that.

I think if Nader's in, and if the libertarians get a good ticket this could be a 30-35% of the vote wins it all type of year. Which frankly, is pathetic.

patteeu
03-26-2008, 05:56 AM
No, McCain himself said we will be there for 100 years if we need to.

McCain said it's possible and that he's "fine" with it "[a]s long as Americans are not being injured or harmed or wounded or killed."

Obama's key military advisor, General Merrill "Tony" McPeak said, "We'll be there a century, hopefully. If it works right"

link (http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives2/2008/03/020108.php)

patteeu
03-26-2008, 06:05 AM
I'd point out that most of the people saying that Hillary would be easier to beat personally like Obama better. I'm one of the few who likes the candidate that I say will be easier to beat (Obama) better than the one that will be harder to beat (Hillary).

Here's my thinking. Hillary has been around forever. Most of her scandals have already been aired and are now old news. She's got high unfavorables, but she's so well known that it's hard to push that number up. Almost everyone who is going to hate her, already hates her.

Obama, OTOH, is pretty unknown. There will be plenty of opportunity to fill in the blanks as people get to know him. If he's successful, he has the potential to be much more popular than Hillary. If his opponents are successful, he has the potential to be much less popular than Hillary. His favorable/unfavorable ratings are volatile which makes him easier to attack. He's already become the black candidate and he's already lost his post-political mask to a large degree. I'm not sure he has anything to fall back on and it will be hard to recreate that magical quality, IMO.

patteeu
03-26-2008, 07:15 AM
More support for the idea that Obama would be easier to beat:

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/20080326democrats1.gif

link to story (http://www.gallup.com/poll/105691/McCain-vs-Obama-28-Clinton-Backers-McCain.aspx)

pikesome
03-26-2008, 07:32 AM
More support for the idea that Obama would be easier to beat:

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/20080326democrats1.gif

link to story (http://www.gallup.com/poll/105691/McCain-vs-Obama-28-Clinton-Backers-McCain.aspx)

That's sad. If you support Clinton for any reason worth a damn I can't understand how you'd go McCain vs Obama. F'n stupid.

patteeu
03-26-2008, 08:04 AM
More support for the idea that Obama would be easier to beat:

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/20080326democrats1.gif

link to story (http://www.gallup.com/poll/105691/McCain-vs-Obama-28-Clinton-Backers-McCain.aspx)

Interestingly, these results track pretty well with the "Are there more racists or sexists in the democratic party? (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=181180&highlight=racists+sexists)" ChiefsPlanet poll.

Logical
03-26-2008, 08:11 AM
What I don't think that shows is the number of Obama supporters who will just take their ball and go home (not vote at all) if Hillary is the candidate.

StcChief
03-26-2008, 08:14 AM
The Dems continue in dis-array... bring in Al Gore to save the day

Cave Johnson
03-26-2008, 08:20 AM
Is it just me, or are the two Democratic candidates systematically destroying each other? At this point, all McCain has to do to win is not start killing kittens on stage.

Seriously, the Democratic Party leaders need to step in and stop the carnage. The battle to be the nominee within the party should be a polite battle so the winner isn't bleeding from the jugular when they step into the ring with the Republicans. Anything else is the value of individual power over the philosophies and values of the party.

I just heard about the story Monday, but the TN governor proposed a "mini convention" of superdelagates after the last primary in early June. Apparently Howard Dean was cool to the idea, which isn't that suprising given that's he's presided over the train wreck thus far.

patteeu
03-26-2008, 08:22 AM
What I don't think that shows is the number of Obama supporters who will just take their ball and go home (not vote at all) if Hillary is the candidate.

In light of the results of the Gallup poll, is there any reason to believe that there are more of those people than Hillary supporters who would not vote at all if Obama is the candidate? And even if you believe there are more, is it enough more to reverse the impact of the results shown by Gallup? Each defection to McCain is twice as damaging as a decision to sit out the election or vote 3rd party.

StcChief
03-26-2008, 08:29 AM
In light of the results of the Gallop poll, is there any reason to believe that there are more of those people than Hillary supporters who would not vote at all if Obama is the candidate? And even if you believe there are more, is it enough more to reverse the impact of the results shown by Gallop? Each defection to McCain is twice as damaging as a decision to sit out the election or vote 3rd party. Let the Dem candidates and superdelgates just keep fighting amongst themselves.
divide and conquer. Let the supporters of each poot and stay home in Nov.

patteeu
03-26-2008, 11:56 AM
Let the Dem candidates and superdelgates just keep fighting amongst themselves.
divide and conquer. Let the supporters of each poot and stay home in Nov.

Sounds like a good plan to me.

DaneMcCloud
03-26-2008, 01:22 PM
This all makes good sense when I see its from Hollywood.

What is "it"? Is this supposed to be some sort of jab or insult?

Please, explain, Mr. "Honest" Chiefs Fan. :rolleyes: