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View Full Version : New polls show Obama surge in PA -- Leading by 2 points in one


jAZ
04-02-2008, 11:50 PM
It seems to be an outlier, and I have no expectation of a win in PA. But I can hope.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9335.html

New polls show Obama surge in Pa.
By DAVID PAUL KUHN | 4/2/08 12:44 PM EST Text Size:

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is surging in Pennsylvania, according to several new polls. In one survey, released by Public Policy Polling this morning, Obama is now leading New York Sen. Hillary Clinton for the first time, 45 percent to 43 percent. That represents a closing of a 26-percentage-point Clinton advantage from only two and a half weeks ago.

The Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary is scheduled for April 22.

Obama’s gains are largely due to a narrowing of the gap with white voters—29-percentage points according to PPP—but he continues to trail Clinton 49 to 38 percent among whites. In mid-March, according to PPP, Clinton led 63 percent to 23 percent among whites. That mid-March poll occurred prior to Obama’s race speech, at the height of the controversy over Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

The PPP poll of 1224 likely Democratic primary voters between March 31 and April 1, with a margin of error of 2.8 percent, found that Obama has improved by double digits with both white women and white men. Today, PPP has Clinton leading 56 percent to 31 percent with white women. Obama leads 44 percent to 43 percent with white men.

Obama also improved with black voters, long his base. He now captures the support of three in four African Americans in the state.

A Rasmussen Reports poll, released April 1, had Clinton leading Obama by five points, 47 percent to 42 percent. Clinton had a 13-point lead two weeks earlier, according to Rasmussen. Another poll released the same day by SurveyUSA shows Obama making more modest gains. That survey found that Clinton was still ahead by 12 points, though Obama had narrowed her lead by 7 points in the past three weeks.

Taken together, the polls suggest that Pennsylvania, a state that once looked to be a lock for Clinton, has become considerably more competitive. His surge is especially notable considering Pennsylvania’s demographics and its closed primary, two factors thought to be key advantages for Clinton.

chiefforlife
04-03-2008, 10:33 AM
Wow, I didnt expect that. Hillary has to be extremely worried.

She had better make up quite a story this time, crying may not work.

Chief Faithful
04-03-2008, 10:39 AM
Wow, I didnt expect that. Hillary has to be extremely worried.

She had better make up quite a story this time, crying may not work.

Hillary is not continuing because of some noble purpose it is strictly about money. Her campaign is $8M in debt and $5M of that is her own money. The only worry she has is if she quits now she loses that $5M. Any hint of giving up the money dries up. This means she must make a fight of it until the end.
Similarly, I believe that the only reason she told Bill Richardson that Obama cannot win against McCain is she needs the deligates to believe she is going to fight until the end.

banyon
04-03-2008, 10:44 AM
Hillary is not continuing because of some noble purpose it is strictly about money. Her campaign is $8M in debt and $5M of that is her own money. The only worry she has is if she quits now she loses that $5M. Any hint of giving up the money dries up. This means she must make a fight of it until the end.
Similarly, I believe that the only reason she told Bill Richardson that Obama cannot win against McCain is she needs the deligates to believe she is going to fight until the end.

good take, I would not put this past her.

Chief Faithful
04-03-2008, 11:03 AM
good take, I would not put this past her.
I did not come up with this I read Dick Morris is suggesting her continued campaign is about money.
I have friends in the office that believe her motivation is to ensure Obama loses so he will not be the incumbent in 4 years. This way she can run again with support from the DNC. But, I'll got with the idea from Dick Morris who really knows how things work with the Clintons.

StcChief
04-03-2008, 03:45 PM
will she be post menapausal by then? I don't want her near any RED button.

Baby Lee
04-04-2008, 06:42 AM
I was wondering about Hillary's 'I'm Rocky' bit.

Do you think she knows Rocky lost the fight?
Do you think she thinks the voters she's courting know?

jAZ
04-04-2008, 09:19 AM
Do you think she knows Rocky lost the fight?
Do you think she thinks the voters she's courting know?
I'd be willing to bet she didn't know, but to be fair, I bet a lot of people forget that as well.

Baby Lee
04-04-2008, 09:24 AM
I'd be willing to bet she didn't know, but to be fair, I bet a lot of people forget that as well.

I mean, extending the analogy, they beat each other bloody, Apollo [Obama] wins, they initially say no rematch, but in the sequel they're at each other's throats a half hour later at the hospital, and they eventually face off again. Maybe years, down the line, when Hillary's 'the champ' and she loses her mentor, Obama comes to her in friendship and gets her back on track by running on the beach with her.

whoman69
04-04-2008, 07:05 PM
Losing a double digit lead would kill her campaign. The superdelegates would flock to Obama after that. She already lost any gains she had from Ohio and Texas.

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