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View Full Version : Science Where is Harry when you need him ? But we have time this time.


ROYC75
04-16-2008, 07:02 AM
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080415/sc_afp/spaceastronomygermany_080415214429

BERLIN (AFP) - A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.


Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.

Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth -- and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.

If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.

Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.

The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.

The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid."

ArrowheadHawk
04-16-2008, 07:41 AM
Well lets worry about this in twenty years. Doesn't seem to relevant right now.

ROYC75
04-16-2008, 07:56 AM
Harry and the crew will be retired by then,better start training now.........

DenverChief
04-16-2008, 08:02 AM
a satellite? isn't that like a snowball hitting a pebble? I mean really how much could it cause a course change?

markk
04-16-2008, 08:12 AM
i think we should pluck some yokels out of an oil field and send them up to land on it and blow it up.

nevermind, that's a stupid idea

ROYC75
04-16-2008, 08:13 AM
I'm more amazed a 13 year old boy found their screw up ........ :eek:

ROYC75
04-16-2008, 08:14 AM
That kid has a good chance for a career with NASA now.

Mr. Plow
04-16-2008, 08:16 AM
DOOOOOOOOMED!!!!

keg in kc
04-16-2008, 08:18 AM
Well lets worry about this in twenty years. Doesn't seem to relevant right now.Yeah, I agree. Let's wait until it's 12 months away before we start brainstorming.

morphius
04-16-2008, 08:34 AM
Yeah, I agree. Let's wait until it's 12 months away before we start brainstorming.
We work better under pressure

keg in kc
04-16-2008, 08:35 AM
We work better under pressureHow about 12 weeks, to make it interesting.

Uncle_Ted
04-16-2008, 08:51 AM
Sounds made up. No way the chances of hitting a satellite are that high.

ROYC75
04-16-2008, 08:56 AM
Have faith in Harry and AJ will ya, Oh wait, Harry will be dead and AJ will be on the bottle by then if he isn't already by now.


Yep .......... DOOMED !

vailpass
04-16-2008, 09:01 AM
If we elect a black president then it's for sure an asteroid will collide with earth.

milkman
04-16-2008, 09:06 AM
So what they're saying is that the odds of an asteroid slamming into the earth in my lifetime are better than the Chiefs playing in the SB?

Rain Man
04-16-2008, 09:08 AM
If we elect a black president then it's for sure an asteroid will collide with earth.

And then all the racists will be saying 'I told you so'.

Adept Havelock
04-16-2008, 09:09 AM
a satellite? isn't that like a snowball hitting a pebble? I mean really how much could it cause a course change?

With an asteroid that size, it doesn't make much sense to me either. Seems like it would have all the effect of a grasshopper splattering itself on the grille of a loaded 18 wheeler.

Is there an astrophysicist in the house?

If we elect a black president then it's for sure an asteroid will collide with earth.

An Asteroid? Nah. A comet? Almost certainly. :p

vailpass
04-16-2008, 09:13 AM
With an asteroid that size, it doesn't make much sense to me either. Seems like it would have all the effect of a grasshopper splattering itself on the grille of a loaded 18 wheeler.

Is there an astrophysicist in the house?



An Asteroid? Nah. A comet? Almost certainly. :p

Oh damn that's right. :doh!: I done mixed up my hurtling celestial debris chunks.

Rausch
04-16-2008, 09:32 AM
So what they're saying is that the odds of an asteroid slamming into the earth in my lifetime are better than the Chiefs playing in the SB?

Wow...yeah.

This brought to you by Milkman's uplifting post of the day!

Hog Farmer
04-16-2008, 09:36 AM
Gee, I wonder if somebody will come up with the bright idea of moving the satellite from its path.

Brock
04-16-2008, 09:42 AM
IT'S GOING TO HIT OUR SPACE JUNK

Ebolapox
04-16-2008, 11:29 AM
alright, 21 posts and I'm the only one in the dark about this...



WHO THE F*CK IS HARRY?

Dartgod
04-16-2008, 11:34 AM
The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid."
I'll bet he only got a B+ instead of an A because he misspelled Asteroid on the title page.

Dartgod
04-16-2008, 11:36 AM
alright, 21 posts and I'm the only one in the dark about this...



WHO THE F*CK IS HARRY?
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120591/

Sure-Oz
04-16-2008, 11:41 AM
We better win a SB before this shit

ROYC75
04-16-2008, 11:48 AM
alright, 21 posts and I'm the only one in the dark about this...



WHO THE F*CK IS HARRY?


WOW, Bear is going to pick you up and eat you, nobody, I said NOBODY disses Harry S Stamper and his beloved daughter Grace .

Bearcat
04-16-2008, 11:56 AM
We better win a SB before this shit

In related news, Carl Peterson announced the details of his new 28 year plan.

Ebolapox
04-16-2008, 11:58 AM
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120591/

shoulda figured a jayhawk fan would obsess and make multiple references to a chick flick

:spock: :)

ROYC75
04-16-2008, 03:01 PM
shoulda figured a jayhawk fan would obsess and make multiple references to a chick flick

:spock: :)

Dartgod is going to give you a pat on the back next time he gets to see you ! ROFL

Rain Man
04-16-2008, 03:07 PM
All he did was multiply the likelihood by 100. I want to see his numbers before I give him credit.

Uncle_Ted
04-16-2008, 03:33 PM
If we elect a black president then it's for sure an asteroid will collide with earth.

Not being able to find that Chappelle skit online is killing me ...

Uncle_Ted
04-16-2008, 08:52 PM
Yep, the article is completely full of crap:

http://cosmos4u.blogspot.com/2008/04/apophis-risk-not-increased-science-fair.html

Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Apophis risk not increased: science fair judges, world media screw up big time

First the story appeared on April 4 in Germany's 'leading' tabloid ("I have calculated the end of the world ... and NASA says, I'm right"), later in more serious papers ("Nico and the end of the world") - and today, thanks apparently to an AFP story where the writer hadn't found it necessary to check anything, it has taken off around the world. Alas: it's absolute nonsense! The claim is that a 13-year old German schoolboy "discovered" - while working on an entry for a major German science competition - that the 2036 impact probability of asteroid Apophis is not 1:45,000 as the NASA calculation says but actually 100 times higher. Because during the 2029 approach the asteroid would hit a geostationary satellite and be deflected into a much more dangerous orbit. The newspapers also claimed that this boy not only was awarded several prizes for his paper but that NASA had "conceded" that he got it right and they were wrong. We're all doomed, right?

Well, here's what NASA's NEO guru Don Yeomans told this blog yesterday: "We have not corresponded with this young man and this story is absurd, a hoax or both. During its 2029 Earth close approach, Apophis will approach the Earth to about 38,900 km, well inside the geosynchronous distance at 42,240 km. However, the asteroid will cross the equatorial belt at a distance of 51,000 km - well outside the geosynchronous distance. Since the uncertainty on Apophis' position during the Earth close approach is about 1500 km, Apophis cannot approach an Earth satellite. Apophis will not cross the moon's orbital plane at the Moon's orbital distance so it cannot approach the moon either."

And here's how one of the German scientists mentioned in the first story, celestial dynamics expert Frank Spahn from Potsdam University, explained events to this blog today: "I indeed had contact with this engaged boy - he asked me which perturbations/forces determine Apophis' orbit and especially during the close flybys. You know that I deal with kinetic theory & celestial mech. in the context of planetary rings, preplanetary disks etc. I explained him the 3 and 4 body problem and gravitational interactions in general. He did not tell me about his idea to consider a collision. This was in January or February. The next time when I heard of him was in in the boulevard journaillie "Bild" - together with my name.

I asked him to meet me (last Friday), he told me about the asteroid - satellite collision thing (after I asked him how he calculated and "corrected" the NASA result). Then I showed him at the black board about the extremely small collision probability (frequency) with such an object. Seeing the arising problems I attended the set of [German TV news station] N24 and explained the leading responsible person that I appreciate the engagement of that young student but simultaneously I express that one has to mention the low probability of such a collision plus expressing that this is not a correction to NASA. The filming session went on and I had to leave for another meeting. The I saw yesterday that nonsens in TV - and I am shocked. By the way - I haven't seen that paper and the work sofar, Nico told me that his computer disk had a virus so that only hard copies are available which are with the referees of the contest at the moment. So - I do not know how he could have won the competition, obviously the referees were no experts."

Nor were the writers for the German newspapers or AFP - none of which bothered to ask NASA directly or just consult the impact risk page for Apophis. This is clearly the most used and abused Near Earth Asteroid in many years: Still called 2004 MN4 it briefly reached a record high impact probability for 2029 in late 2004 which quickly evaporated (as always in these cases - so far) when radar data nailed down its orbit in early 2005. And in the following months the remaining impact probability for 2036 also continued to dwindle, to the present 1 in 45,000: You can follow the real science - and the triumph of radar astrometry - on this dedicated NASA website. Which certain Jugend Forscht judges and journalists should have consulted, too ...

Adept Havelock
04-16-2008, 09:10 PM
Well, of course they are going to deny this kids discovery. If they admitted it was true, Society would completely collapse. Dogs and cats, living together...mass hysteria! [/tinfoil]

.

Demonpenz
04-16-2008, 09:19 PM
AND I DON'T WANT TO MISS A THANG!

Adept Havelock
04-16-2008, 09:28 PM
If Harry isn't available, maybe we can get Sean Connery. Sure NY got gutted, but he stopped the big one.

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ChiefaRoo
04-17-2008, 03:34 AM
Bring it on, I'm bored anyway.

Houston, this is a kickass ride!
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DaneMcCloud
04-17-2008, 04:09 AM
AND I DON'T WANT TO MISS A THANG!

Gayest. Aerosmith. Ever.


NTTATWWT.


Other than it's sucky, stupid, lame song.

Guru
04-17-2008, 04:51 AM
Let Rockhound handle it.

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Damn if I could find the clip where mounts the warhead.

Saggysack
04-17-2008, 05:24 AM
Germans are the by far the strangest bunch I have ever come across. Only people I have ever seen and dig themselves a grave on the beach to lay in. Umm, haven't you ever heard of a beach lounger?