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View Full Version : Which 1st and 2nd round combination would you rather have over Jared Allen?


Rain Man
04-17-2008, 07:02 PM
Here are the rules:

1. Click on each set of players that you would trade Jared Allen in exchange for (i.e., you lose Jared Allen, you get the players named)

2. Assume that all drafted players are rookies and will repeat their Chiefs careers exactly as those careers transpired.

3. If a player arrived by trade, assume that they repeated their Chiefs career exactly as it transpired.

4. Assume that you could get the players for the 2008 Chiefs.

5. When you're done, report how many of the 16 1st-1st combos, how many of the 17 1st-2nd combos, and how many of the 17 1st-3rd combos are worth more than Jared Allen.

I know it's not exact since the placement of each pick within the round varies, and the Chiefs' needs have varied over time, but over the course of Carl's decades-long junta, I think it evens out to a fair representation of what we could expect.

Note: I included the impacts of other trades where possible, e.g., the tradedown of our 1st rounder in 2005 brought multiple picks that turned into multiple busts.


Poll forthcoming, unlike Carl Peterson's firing.

Count Zarth
04-17-2008, 07:15 PM
John Elway and Willie Lanier.

Pestilence
04-17-2008, 07:17 PM
Ahhhhhhhhh........I'm dumb.

Mecca
04-17-2008, 07:18 PM
If the point of this is to basically say "look this team doesn't draft well" We should all just find another team to like because if you can't draft well you will not win anything.

kstater
04-17-2008, 07:20 PM
Honestly, I don't think I can pick any of those pairs. I'm thinking of DT and Snow, but can't really justify it.

buddha
04-17-2008, 07:22 PM
Derrick Thomas and a Big Gulp would make the deal for me. DT was an all-timer.

Rain Man
04-17-2008, 07:23 PM
I count 3 times out of 16 where I would value our 2 1st rounders over Jared. I would trade Jared for a combo of:

Victor Riley and Tony Gonzalez
Joe Montana and Dale Carter
Derrick Thomas and Percy Snow



I count 2 times out of 17 where I would value our 1st and 2nd rounders over Jared. I would trade Jared for a combo of:

Tony Gonzalez and Kevin Lockett
Derrick Thomas and Mike Elkins

I count 2 times out of 17 where I would value our 1st and 3rd rounders over Jared. I would trade Jared for a combo of:

Joe Montana and Will Shields
Derrick Thomas and Naz Worthen



What this exercise tells me is that the odds of Carl obtaining two productive players with 2 draft picks is almost nil. The only times where a trade of Jared Allen would work well is if he hits the jackpot with 1 of the 2 picks. Therefore, why not just keep the guy who is already the jackpot?

evolve27
04-17-2008, 07:25 PM
All those look good.

Rain Man
04-17-2008, 07:27 PM
Ahhhhhhhhh........I'm dumb.


Basically, I'm trying to set up a grid of all of Carl's picks in terms of how he used:

a) two first-rounders in back to back years
b) his 1st and 2nd rounders in a year
c) his 1st and 3rd rounders in a year

This is a proxy for how he would draft if he were to get those picks in exchange for Jared Allen. What would the likely outcome be? According to my thinking, the odds of the Chiefs getting something in the trade that is better than Allen are about 12 to 15 percent. 85 percent of the time, we'll be worse off by trading him.

As a note, in instances where the Chiefs traded up or down, I tried to capture that by citing all of the players who were obtained as a result of trading the pick. It's not perfect since I couldn't find or remember some of the trade outcomes.

POND_OF_RED
04-17-2008, 07:27 PM
Percy Snow and Derrick Thomas without any question

Chiefnj2
04-17-2008, 07:28 PM
I eff'd up my voting. I'd select anything with Derrick Thomas and Joe Montana in it. Tony G is close, but I'll take a DE over a TE any day of the week.

Rain Man
04-17-2008, 07:29 PM
All those look good.


You would trade Jared Allen and a 6th-rounder for Ryan Sims? Please think carefully about your answer, since you're at great risk of receiving a powerful dose of neg rep for messing up my poll.

Rain Man
04-17-2008, 07:31 PM
I eff'd up my voting. I'd select anything with Derrick Thomas and Joe Montana in it. Tony G is close, but I'll take a DE over a TE any day of the week.

Yeah, it's hard to not vote for Tony G, but DE is a more impactful position.


I look at this, and I think the odds are overwhelming that a trade is a bad idea, even for 2 1st rounders.

POND_OF_RED
04-17-2008, 07:31 PM
Also the 88-89 first rounds would be a steal. Neil Smith and Derrick Thomas

kstater
04-17-2008, 07:32 PM
Evolve27 and jbucc think Vermiel and Trent green for JA is a good trade?

DeezNutz
04-17-2008, 07:32 PM
I'd trade Allen for Gonzo, straight up, any day.

evolve27
04-17-2008, 07:35 PM
You would trade Jared Allen and a 6th-rounder for Ryan Sims? Please think carefully about your answer, since you're at great risk of receiving a powerful dose of neg rep for messing up my poll.

I must have misread the poll. I thought it was a first and third plus Sims. We targeted on Sims and missed badly but alot of early picks are busts. We seem to strike on many of them. The others had TG or Tait. They are decent players who I would have liked to see or have seen become great Chiefs players.

Rain Man
04-17-2008, 07:36 PM
Also the 88-89 first rounds would be a steal. Neil Smith and Derrick Thomas

Yeah, but Carl didn't control both of those selections. I'm limiting this to the Carl era to keep it realistic since we're saddled with him.

Rain Man
04-17-2008, 07:37 PM
I must have misread. I thought it was a first and third plus Sims. We targeted on Sims and missed badly but alot of early picks are busts. We seem to strike on many of them. The others had TG or Tait. They are decent players who I would have liked to see or have seen become great Chiefs players.

The purpose of the poll is to imagine that you're Carl Peterson, and you can get the players listed in exchange for Jared Allen. Those players equate to our own picks at the spots listed at left, which were provided merely for reference.

Management apologizes for any confusion.

evolve27
04-17-2008, 07:42 PM
The purpose of the poll is to imagine that you're Carl Peterson, and you can get the players listed in exchange for Jared Allen. Those players equate to our own picks at the spots listed at left, which were provided merely for reference.

Management apologizes for any confusion.

:doh!:

cdcox
04-17-2008, 07:44 PM
Montana was the bees knees and everything, but no way do I give away a DE that could be dominant for the next 6-8 years for a QB that played 2 years. Especially given the weakness of the surrounding cast that we'll have in the next coulple years even in the most optimistic circumstances. It would be like setting fire to him.

Rain Man
04-17-2008, 07:48 PM
Montana was the bees knees and everything, but no way do I give away a DE that could be dominant for the next 6-8 years for a QB that played 2 years. Especially given the weakness of the surrounding cast that we'll have in the next coulple years even in the most optimistic circumstances. It would be like setting fire to him.


What about old Montana and a rookie Shields, though? Or a rookie Dale Carter? I could conceivably approve of either of those, though the Montana/Carter one is probably a wash. If the team was stronger at the moment, I think it could be a win.

stlchiefs
04-17-2008, 07:56 PM
4: both DT trades and both Joe Cool trades.

cdcox
04-17-2008, 07:58 PM
What about old Montana and a rookie Shields, though? Or a rookie Dale Carter? I could conceivably approve of either of those, though the Montana/Carter one is probably a wash. If the team was stronger at the moment, I think it could be a win.

I see Montana contributing zero to the trade because given this team he wouldn't be around for any playoff victories and probably not any playoff appearances. I would not trade JA's future straight up for Dale Carter's known past. Will Shields is close. He had a longer career than what JA has left, but plays at a much lower impact position. Will Shields would be the safer pick by far, so I'd probably go for that.

the Talking Can
04-17-2008, 08:06 PM
almost all of those pairs suck

moral: we're getting crap for a proven player

Rain Man
04-18-2008, 08:42 AM
almost all of those pairs suck

moral: we're getting crap for a proven player


Precisely. What we see is that the odds of getting two good productive players in two picks is almost zero. Essentially, trading Jared Allen is a gamble that we can get a better player than Allen with one of those picks, which has happened only with DT, Gonzalez, and Shields. I'm not sure they're all better than him, either, or maybe just equivalent.

Statistically speaking, a trade is a nightmare scenario, even if we get two 1st-round picks.

Fire Carl Peterson and bring in a GM who will sign Jared Allen.

Hoover
04-18-2008, 08:44 AM
Fact is Herm drafts better than DV and Gun

Rain Man
04-18-2008, 08:56 AM
Fact is Herm drafts better than DV and Gun


I concur that a different coach may make a difference, but if he's got triple the hit rate, that still means the odds are stacked against us. And I doubt he's got triple the hit rate.

oldandslow
04-18-2008, 09:13 AM
If the point of this is to basically say "look this team doesn't draft well" We should all just find another team to like because if you can't draft well you will not win anything.

NO the point is - why trade a sure thing for much less of a sure thing...

dj56dt58
04-18-2008, 09:36 AM
Any combo with DT