PDA

View Full Version : Elections Newsweek Poll: Obama Surges to 19 Point National Lead


jAZ
04-18-2008, 11:22 PM
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/04/poll_obama_pulling_away_from_c.php

Poll: Obama Pulling Away From Clinton Nationally
By Greg Sargent - April 18, 2008, 4:26PM

On the heels of today's Gallup tracking poll finding the race tightening to within three points comes this new Newsweek poll finding that Obama is pulling away and now leads Hillary nationally by 19 points among registered Dems.

Here are the numbers, compared with the last Newsweek poll finding a statistical dead heat in March:

Obama 54% (45%)

Hillary 35% (44%)

One key finding with regard to the debate: The poll was taken on April 16th and 17th -- which is to say, on one day before the debate, and on one day after. And the Newsweek pollster says that there was no real shift in support from one day to the next.

Separately, nearly half (46%) of Dems say super-dels should use their own judgment in picking which candidate to support, while 38% want them to back the popular vote winner, and only 12% want them to pick the winner of the pledged del count.

As I've said here before, if Obama were to emerge as the clear winner of both the pledged del count and popular vote, these numbers might shift -- perhaps dramatically -- in his direction.

Ultra Peanut
04-18-2008, 11:26 PM
B-b-b-b-but... bitter! Hamas! Messiah! Farrakhan! Lapel pins!

Logical
04-19-2008, 12:52 AM
Obamamessiah, has turned bitterness of small town Americans into votes. It is like turning water into wine, without the hangover.

BucEyedPea
04-19-2008, 05:50 AM
Obamamessiah, has turned bitterness of small town Americans into votes. It is like turning water into wine, without the hangover.

Not according to Fox News. I don't know why I did it but I watched Hannity last night. They selected a handful of voters and claimed "voters" plural of Penn rejected him for his recent snob statements. Well, gawd, they selected NRA guys who would have never voted for him anyway. Doesn't anyone else see through this blatantly biased selections for a network that claims they're the opposite?

memyselfI
04-19-2008, 06:35 AM
When this poll is replicated a couple more times then it might be time to start popping the campaign corks. Until then, I wouldn't give it much credence because it bucks the trend of most daily polls.

HonestChieffan
04-19-2008, 07:58 AM
Every poll has a built in bias, its almost impossible to remove it. That said the issue that democrats face are not who leads who in what poll...its can one side count on support from the other once they make a decision...thats issue one. Issue two is, no matter what poll numbers are in a Obama vs Hillary comparison, its a matter of who would have the best opportunity in a McCain comparison. Will the Hillary base move left? or would they feel more comfortable with a moderate/right president? Electability...and a sustainable message...and a base of support that has real bredth. Obamas support although high in numbers is very narrow in its scope and as each week has come and gone, he is not expanding. He is more and more firmly in command of the black vote but has slipped with the liberal/moderate white, slipped with the old like white democrat at any cost folks, and has really failed badly to energize the latino community, he is dropping Jewish voters like a cat shedding hair, and his support at the union level is weakening.

The convention decision is so critical now. Should be fun to see.

Brock
04-19-2008, 08:50 AM
When this poll is replicated a couple more times then it might be time to start popping the campaign corks. Until then, I wouldn't give it much credence because it bucks the trend of most daily polls.

You need to wake up, the bitch is dead.

memyselfI
04-19-2008, 01:59 PM
Whowuddathunk it. Today's Gallup poll proves my point. :hmmm:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106606/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-46-Obama-45.aspx

Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows that Hillary Clinton now receives 46% of the support of Democrats nationally, compared to 45% for Barack Obama, marking the first time Obama has not led in Gallup's daily tracking since March 18-20.


http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/041908DailyUpdateGraph1_trew634.gif

Calcountry
04-19-2008, 02:54 PM
B-b-b-b-but... bitter! Hamas! Messiah! Farrakhan! Lapel pins!
They had me at Hussein.

Calcountry
04-19-2008, 02:55 PM
I hope Hillary wins in Pennsylvania. That being said, It won't bother me in the least if she loses. It will be fun to watch her cry for real.