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View Full Version : Chiefs Mathematical analysis of the Allen trade.


cdcox
04-20-2008, 03:07 PM
I assmed that we would get two high picks for Allen. I assumed each of players could be graded as star, solid starter, or bust (given the rounds we are talking about if the players do not develop into solid starters I would consider them busts). I then assigned odds of each player's future:

Allen 60% star, 25% starter, 15% bust. (Allowing for the fact that his performance might decrease or he might drink himself out of the league.)

1st round pick 10% star, 50% stater, 40% bust
later round pick 5% star, 40% starter, 55% bust

Next I looked at whether each each outcome would be better for the trade or better to keep Allen.

Much better for with the trade:

Any senario where a new player is a star (the new star would be younger and cheaper at least for the initial contract).

Any scenario where Allen drops to starter level or below and we get at least one starter from the draft (new player would be at least as good and would be younger and cheaper).

A little better for with the trade:

Allen busts and the new players bust (at least it wold be cheaper)

About even regardless of what we do:

Allen stays a star and we get two new starters. (A star is worth more than two starters IMO, but the new players would be younger and cheaper).

A little better keeping Allen:

Allen drops to (expensive) starter status, while the two drafted guys bust.

Much better keeping Allen:

Allen remains a star and we get one starter or no starters from the draft picks.


RESULTS OF ANALYSIS

There is about a 40% chance we would be much better off making the trade.

There is about a 3% chance we will be a little better off making the trade.

There is about a 12% chance that we will be about the same whether we trade Allen or not.

There is about a 6% chance that we will be a little better off keeping Allen.

There is about a 39% chance we will be much better off keeping Allen.

Overall, not being able to see the future, there is no clear advantage of keeping Allen or trading him. It is about a toss up.

JBucc
04-20-2008, 03:10 PM
Thank you for this conclusive analysis. :p

Rain Man
04-20-2008, 03:12 PM
Hey, cdcox, have you seen my analysis of the actual outcomes of past drafts? I did a couple of random years, 1995 and 1998, on some Jared Allen thread that got around 100 posts or so. It might help put more beef behind the odds that are your basic assumptions, because I was seeing a much lower hit rate on starters and stars.

I was planning to do some more years, too, but haven't gotten around to it yet.

recxjake
04-20-2008, 03:13 PM
As much as I like the guy, I think we should trade him... and get more picks

We should also trade down from 5 to 8 ( I don't want Ryan)... to get more picks

I only want one thing next week... don't draft a QB! Lets give Brody one year to pan out, it's not like we are going to win the SB this year... give the guy a little time, a better line, and better recievers!

If we could somehow get Jake Long at 5 and Brandon Albert at 17 I would be happy!

blueballs
04-20-2008, 03:13 PM
and if the Chiefs trade one of the first rounders for Jason Taylor
what are the odds of sniper shooting at Arrowhead
Litto Sheppard Chad Johnson ect

cdcox
04-20-2008, 03:15 PM
Thank you for this conclusive analysis. :p

Well, at least you know that mathematically it does not make sense to get too worked up about the trade, either way it goes.

Rain Man
04-20-2008, 03:15 PM
Here's the thread.

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=183130

Would it be helpful for me to crank out more years?

cdcox
04-20-2008, 03:17 PM
Hey, cdcox, have you seen my analysis of the actual outcomes of past drafts? I did a couple of random years, 1995 and 1998, on some Jared Allen thread that got around 100 posts or so. It might help put more beef behind the odds that are your basic assumptions, because I was seeing a much lower hit rate on starters and stars.

I was planning to do some more years, too, but haven't gotten around to it yet.


If I can find it, I can re do the analysis in no time.

cdcox
04-20-2008, 03:18 PM
Here's the thread.

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=183130

Would it be helpful for me to crank out more years?

Any data is better than no data.

More data is better than some data.

cdcox
04-20-2008, 03:24 PM
I'm having a hard time parsing probowler, multiple probowler, near tradgedy, weak starter...

el borracho
04-20-2008, 03:29 PM
1. Allen is a 25 or 26 year old star- the only reasons for his production to fall off would be injury or suspension so the value of the trade depends at least in part on how much risk you assign him in those categories. Is he an above average risk, an average risk or a below average risk? I would think average to slightly above average. I guess I just believe him when he says he no longer drinks and, even if he were to drink, I trust him to be smart enough to find a ride.

2. There are like 3 players on the roster that Carl drafted from 2000 through 2005. I think it pretty unlikely that Carl will draft a player equal to Allen and very unlikely that Carl will draft two players equal to Allen. In my mind, it is an unnecessary risk to trade a known for an unknown with Carl in charge of the draft. Even if Carl finds one equal player (which would make the trade a wash), I certainly don't trust him to find two.

DaneMcCloud
04-20-2008, 03:36 PM
Considering that Allen was arrested for a DUI during high school (25% chance), a DUI in college (25% chance) and twice during his brief NFL career (40% chance), I'd say there is a 31% chance he'll be arrested for another DUI in the next four years.

If he has four full seasons left but a 31% chance of being arrested for another DUI, he'll miss an entire season (and then some). If he signs a $70 million dollar deal with the Chiefs, he would cost the Chiefs $17.5 million dollars in cap space per season missed (not to mention the signing bonus).

Given that info, how could ANYONE advocate re-signing Allen instead of trading him?

cdcox
04-20-2008, 03:42 PM
If you count probowlers as stars, I was under representing the chances of getting a star in the first round and over-representing it in the second round. That favors the trade.


RESULTS OF ANALYSIS (WITH RAINMAN'S DATA)

There is about a 51% chance we would be much better off making the trade.

There is about a 2% chance we will be a little better off making the trade.

There is about a 9% chance that we will be about the same whether we trade Allen or not.

There is about a 4% chance that we will be a little better off keeping Allen.

There is about a 34% chance we will be much better off keeping Allen.

With these data there is a clear advantage to trading Allen

el borracho
04-20-2008, 03:43 PM
People do sometimes mature and grow and learn from their mistakes. If this were not so, all criminal convictions would merit a life sentence. I mean, if no one ever learns anything why the hell let them out of jail.

Also, why would Allen only have 4 seasons left? He is 25 or 26.

cdcox
04-20-2008, 03:48 PM
1. Allen is a 25 or 26 year old star- the only reasons for his production to fall off would be injury or suspension so the value of the trade depends at least in part on how much risk you assign him in those categories. Is he an above average risk, an average risk or a below average risk? I would think average to slightly above average. I guess I just believe him when he says he no longer drinks and, even if he were to drink, I trust him to be smart enough to find a ride.

2. There are like 3 players on the roster that Carl drafted from 2000 through 2005. I think it pretty unlikely that Carl will draft a player equal to Allen and very unlikely that Carl will draft two players equal to Allen. In my mind, it is an unnecessary risk to trade a known for an unknown with Carl in charge of the draft. Even if Carl finds one equal player (which would make the trade a wash), I certainly don't trust him to find two.


1. Players frequently don't play as well after a big pay day. See LJ last season before the injury. See Chester McGlockton. See Dan Williams. So injury and suspension are not the only reasons his performance might drop.

2. If we get one star player it is much better than a wash since the player will be younger and cheaper.

cdcox
04-20-2008, 03:50 PM
People do sometimes mature and grow and learn from their mistakes. If this were not so, all criminal convictions would merit a life sentence. I mean, if no one ever learns anything why the hell let them out of jail.

Also, why would Allen only have 4 seasons left? He is 25 or 26.

I do agree that people can learn and mature. Allen does seem to have a strong determination not to fall into his past mistakes. That is why I am rating him at 60% to stay at star level.

I agree with you that Allen could easily have 6 or more good seasons left at DE.

Rain Man
04-20-2008, 04:16 PM
Boy, we're coming to radically different conclusions. I'm looking at pairs of 1st and 2nds in my analysis, and I'm only seeing a 15% chance or so of coming out ahead. Where are we differing in our logic? I recognize that I'm not accounting for a possibility of a suspension, but I have a hard time seeing that it would deflate his value strongly enough that 5/8ths (62%) of the drawn pairs in those drafts would be a better fit.

cdcox
04-20-2008, 04:27 PM
13/46 first rounders were a star (probowler or better) or 28%. I have all of those combos as better than keeping Allen since you are getting a younger, cheaper player. So if you are only picking 15% of the deals as better, we are working under different assumptions right there.

If Allen falls off to mere starter level or below (40% chance in my scenario) you're better off if you get even one starter out of the trade, since again he will be younger and cheaper.

The other thing is that those players have more years of experience than Allen and Allen just had his best year to date. So you might be comparing something that is the result of variance (a one-year best performance) against a mean. That gives the one-year variance a huge advantage.

Rain Man
04-20-2008, 04:33 PM
13/46 first rounders were a star (probowler or better) or 28%. I have all of those combos as better than keeping Allen since you are getting a younger, cheaper player. So if you are only picking 15% of the deals as better, we are working under different assumptions right there.

If Allen falls off to mere starter level or below (40% chance in my scenario) you're better off if you get even one starter out of the trade, since again he will be younger and cheaper.

The other thing is that those players have more years of experience than Allen and Allen just had his best year to date. So you might be comparing something that is the result of variance (a one-year best performance) against a mean. That gives the one-year variance a huge advantage.


I can buy that.

However, I'm a starry-eyed optimist when it comes to Jared, so don't say anything to Carl, okay? I still think he's our guy.

tiptap
04-20-2008, 04:35 PM
You haven't included the chance of getting a starter from a lower pick. Allan was not a first or 2nd round pick. In a sense by insisting that the starter or better must come from the exact same picks traded for, you are really evaluating how well the Chiefs will draft in these selections as opposed to the improved chances of getting a starter with more picks.

I like your analysis, I am just looking to tweak the parameters and see what that might present.

cdcox
04-20-2008, 04:43 PM
You haven't included the chance of getting a starter from a lower pick. Allan was not a first or 2nd round pick. In a sense by insisting that the starter or better must come from the exact same picks traded for, you are really evaluating how well the Chiefs will draft in these selections as opposed to the improved chances of getting a starter with more picks.

I like your analysis, I am just looking to tweak the parameters and see what that might present.

I'm only considering that we will get two picks from the team that we trade with, one first rounder and a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

If we get a star from one of our own late round picks, that has no bearing on the Allen trade, since it is an independent event (we would have got that player even without the Allen trade).

tiptap
04-20-2008, 04:53 PM
I'm only considering that we will get two picks from the team that we trade with, one first rounder and a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

If we get a star from one of our own late round picks, that has no bearing on the Allen trade, since it is an independent event (we would have got that player even without the Allen trade).

I AM ok with this line of reasoning. But the choices in the draft change focus if you have players of equal value and already have drafted to fill need with your additional choices.

L.A. Chieffan
04-20-2008, 05:05 PM
What about all the pissed people that purchased a Jared Allen jersey only to see it now worthless and then become angry at the franchise, stop purchasing merchandise and cease following the team financially and emotionally therby losing money and support in that aspect?

cdcox
04-20-2008, 05:15 PM
What about all the pissed people that purchased a Jared Allen jersey only to see it now worthless and then become angry at the franchise, stop purchasing merchandise and cease following the team financially and emotionally therby losing money and support in that aspect?

I want to win a SB. If a few fans get pissed off along the way cause they bought an overpriced jersey, I can live with that. Doing something just to keep the fans happy is the same kind of mentality (keeping the seats filled) that has us going 7-9 or 9-7 or one-and-done in the playoffs every year.

L.A. Chieffan
04-20-2008, 05:17 PM
I want to win a SB. If a few fans get pissed off along the way cause they bought an overpriced jersey, I can live with that. Doing something just to keep the fans happy is the same kind of mentality (keeping the seats filled) that has us going 7-9 or 9-7 or one-and-done in the playoffs every year.

Winning a SB would piss off people

cdcox
04-20-2008, 05:22 PM
Winning a SB would piss off people

I can live with that, especially if they are Bronco fans.

Rain Man
04-20-2008, 06:05 PM
Just to comfort me, can you run this model on the Babe Ruth trade to the Yankees?

Ultra Peanut
04-20-2008, 06:41 PM
People do sometimes mature and grow and learn from their mistakes. If this were not so, all criminal convictions would merit a life sentence. I mean, if no one ever learns anything why the hell let them out of jail.If he didn't learn from his first, second, and THIRD DUIs, why would he learn from his fourth?

Rain Man
04-20-2008, 06:53 PM
If he didn't learn from his first, second, and THIRD DUIs, why would he learn from his fourth?

First one - apology worked.
Second one - apology worked.
Third one - suspended from NFL, lambasted in national media, blown negotiations for tens of millions of dollars.

Brock
04-20-2008, 06:55 PM
It's been my experience that a guy who has multiple DUIs is about 90 percent certain to get 1 more.

DaneMcCloud
04-20-2008, 06:59 PM
It's been my experience that a guy who has multiple DUIs is about 90 percent certain to get 1 more.

QFT

el borracho
04-20-2008, 07:18 PM
If he didn't learn from his first, second, and THIRD DUIs, why would he learn from his fourth?

The 4th cost him alot of money.

OnTheWarpath58
04-21-2008, 10:15 AM
1. Allen is a 25 or 26 year old star- the only reasons for his production to fall off would be injury or suspension...

I'm not buying that at all.

1st, as already noted, history shows that players slack off after a huge payday. As much as you want to THINK that it wouldn't happen to Allen, it can, and does happen to anyone.

2nd, before his payday, his production dropped significantly from 2005 to 2006.

11 sacks down to 7.5 sacks, and he wasn't even the sack leader on his OWN TEAM.

OnTheWarpath58
04-21-2008, 10:18 AM
The 4th cost him alot of money.

So did the others.

The first cost him a chance to go to a big football school, and instead, he has to settle for Idaho State.

The second cost him a chance of being drafted earlier than the 4th round. I'm sure playing at Idaho State had something to do with it as well.

See the snowball effect here?

The 3rd and 4th cost him money in lost salary due to suspension, and are currently costing him money in the form of a new contract.

beach tribe
04-21-2008, 10:23 AM
I'm not buying that at all.

1st, as already noted, history shows that players slack off after a huge payday. As much as you want to THINK that it wouldn't happen to Allen, it can, and does happen to anyone.

2nd, before his payday, his production dropped significantly from 2005 to 2006.

11 sacks down to 7.5 sacks, and he wasn't even the sack leader on his OWN TEAM.

You take the risk of the fat contract syndrome with every player.

In 94 Reggie white went from 13 sacks to 8, and wasn't even the sack leader on his OWN TEAM.

Is JA RW? hell no. No one is, but your point is moot.

Groves
04-21-2008, 10:24 AM
Where do we factor in that Jared doesn't want to play another down for us?

I guess that was under the condition that he didn't have a long term contract before the season, right?

Sure-Oz
04-21-2008, 10:25 AM
I wouldn't trust a guy that got 2 dui's already

beach tribe
04-21-2008, 10:26 AM
Where do we factor in that Jared doesn't want to play another down for us?

I guess that was under the condition that he didn't have a long term contract before the season, right?

You mean like Lance Briggs?

OnTheWarpath58
04-21-2008, 10:28 AM
You mean like Lance Briggs?

So, because Lance Briggs is a ****ing liar, we should take the gamble with Allen that he won't:

1) Hold out.

2) Walk away as promised, and we have no compensation for him?

R&GHomer
04-21-2008, 10:40 AM
It's been my experience that a guy who has multiple DUIs is about 90 percent certain to get 1 more.

:spock: To what end? If he gets another one, a one year suspension isn't going to be the only thing he has to worry about.

beach tribe
04-21-2008, 10:44 AM
So, because Lance Briggs is a ****ing liar, we should take the gamble with Allen that he won't:

1) Hold out.

2) Walk away as promised, and we have no compensation for him?

The discussion is basically whether you pay him or not, and there are good arguments for both sides.

If we match whatever offer he gets, he will not:

1) Hold out.

2) Walk away, beacause he would be getting his money, which is what he is after.

BTW he said he would never sign long tearm, unless we didn't do it before the season. which is basically what almost every franchised player uses as leverage in one form or another.

I understand that you would not give him the money because of the risk, and that is completely understandable.

el borracho
04-21-2008, 01:00 PM
I'm not buying that at all.

1st, as already noted, history shows that players slack off after a huge payday. As much as you want to THINK that it wouldn't happen to Allen, it can, and does happen to anyone.

2nd, before his payday, his production dropped significantly from 2005 to 2006.

11 sacks down to 7.5 sacks, and he wasn't even the sack leader on his OWN TEAM.

1. You cannot assume Allen's production is going to diminish after he gets paid; it may, or it may not. Based on his personality, I would say not.

2. Who was on the line with Allen in 2006? It doesn't really matter if you are a probowl DE if every other lineman next to you eats sweaty monkey ass under a hot, tropical sun.

OnTheWarpath58
04-21-2008, 01:05 PM
1. You cannot assume Allen's production is going to diminish after he gets paid; it may, or it may not. Based on his personality, I would say not.

2. Who was on the line with Allen in 2006? It doesn't really matter if you are a probowl DE if every other lineman next to you eats sweaty monkey ass under a hot, tropical sun.

That didn't stop Tabla Hali, who was a fooking rookie. He had more sacks than Allen, and was playing next to the same shitbags Allen was.

The fact that his production seriously diminished from 2005 to 2006 (when he actually had BETTER players around him) is worrying to me.

His production skyrocketed in 2007 because it was a contract year.

If his sack numbers looked like this, I wouldn't be concerned:

2004: 9
2005: 11
2006: 13
2007: 15.5


Instead, they look like this:

2004: 9
2005: 11
2006: 7.5
2007: 15.5

el borracho
04-21-2008, 01:07 PM
So did the others.

The first cost him a chance to go to a big football school, and instead, he has to settle for Idaho State.

The second cost him a chance of being drafted earlier than the 4th round. I'm sure playing at Idaho State had something to do with it as well.

See the snowball effect here?

The 3rd and 4th cost him money in lost salary due to suspension, and are currently costing him money in the form of a new contract.

The 4th surely cost him a great deal more than the first 3 since he lost two NFL game checks, plus whatever escalated repeat offender fines were associated.

Admittedly, I cannot guarantee that Allen will not get another DUI but he seems contrite and says he has stopped drinking. Actually, there are articles which talk about several lifestyle changes; better diet, better excercise, better attitude, etc. Silly T-Shirt aside, all accounts indicate that he has matured. Since I have no evidence to the contrary, I believe him.

el borracho
04-21-2008, 01:13 PM
OnTheWarpath58,

Stats can help tell a story but they rarely tell the whole story. Which is the better player, in your opinon, Allen or Hali?