Well, so much for the recession

[alnorth]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080430/economy.html?.v=4

The bruised economy limped through the first quarter of this year at only 0.6 percent as housing and credit problems forced people and businesses alike to hunker down.

The country's economic growth during January through March was the same as in the final three months of last year, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The statistic did not meet what economists consider the classic definition of a recession, which is a retraction of the economy. This means that although economy is stuck in a rut, it is still managing to keep growing -- however modestly.

We had really pathetic growth with a stalled economy, but it looks like we arent quite going to slip into a full recession.

[SBK]

I wouldn't be so sure, but it's good to get any good news out.

[Adept Havelock]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080430/economy.html?.v=4



We had really pathetic growth with a stalled economy, but it looks like we arent quite going to slip into a full recession.

I hope not. I'm certainly no financial whiz but when a guy like Buffett (Warren, not Jimmy) is convinced we're in for some really bad times, I get worried.

That's when it's Jimmy Buffett/Margarita time.

[NewPhin]

Our city and county sales tax receipts were back up again in February after consistently falling for quite a while.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Avoiding a recession would be outstanding news. I did my part with a recent television purchase!

[mlyonsd]

Recession or not, paying $3.44 for a gallon of gas sure makes me feel like we're in one.

[oldandslow]

Where are you getting 3.44 cent regular???

It was 3.49 everywhere in town this AM...

I need to fill up this PM.

[banyon]

3.54 here.

[Brock]

What??? Why just a few weeks ago, the D word was making the rounds.

[mlyonsd]

Where are you getting 3.44 cent regular???

It was 3.49 everywhere in town this AM...

I need to fill up this PM.

North Sioux. I was stupid and drove past the new K&G at Elk Point where it was $3.37.

The Coffee Cup at exit 26 is $3.44 this morning as well.

[Radar Chief]

Recession or not, paying $3.44 for a gallon of gas sure makes me feel like we're in one.

It’s sure made the price of everything else go up.

[Chief Henry]

We just upgraded our main TV to a Toshiba 42 inch LCD and had it mounted on the wall above our fire place. Its sweet for sure. We're doing our part to keep the economy afloat.

[Chief Henry]

North Sioux City....we'll I'll darn. I'll be in Sioux City this weekend for the State Knights of Columbus convention. It should be a good time.

[mlyonsd]

North Sioux City....we'll I'll darn. I'll be in Sioux City this weekend for the State Knights of Columbus convention. It should be a good time.

Cool. I'd tell you where the good restaurants are but there aren't any.

Spend lots of money anyway. I'll notify the hookers to be on stand by.

[StcChief]

next the rise in food attribuuted to increased gas will hit, as well as shortages.....

Nothing sells better than bad news, ask the media.

[Calcountry]

What??? Why just a few weeks ago, the D word was making the rounds.
That's why all the yuppies in California are panicking and buying up rice at Costco. lol.

We have had plenty of rain north of Sacramento and there willl be PLENTY of rice grown this season.

[Calcountry]

It’s sure made the price of everything else go up.
The government printing money probably had more to do with that than the rise in gas. In fact, we didn't have that much inflation prior to the massive drop in interest rates, rebate checks, bear stearns bail outs, etc.

It's off to the races now. In fact, the declining dollar has more to do with the recent(within last month) gas spike than anything.

[kcchiefsfanGoJC]

Shoot gas prices here are around $3.70

[oldandslow]

Cool. I'd tell you where the good restaurants are but there aren't any.

Spend lots of money anyway. I'll notify the hookers to be on stand by.

Hey Famous Daves isn't bad if you're into bbq. Thanks for the tip about the Coffee Cup. I will head out that way this evening.

[Calcountry]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080430/economy.html?.v=4



We had really pathetic growth with a stalled economy, but it looks like we arent quite going to slip into a full recession.Lets see, inflation is running at about 5 to 10 % annual rate for food, more for fuel. So the economy grew at .6 % so that is an erosion of purchasing power any way you slice it. IF you look at REAL growth, that is adjusted for inflation, it is very negative right now.

[Stewie]

The underlying problems are still there and getting worse. Take gov't data with a grain of salt. Those numbers are borderline fictional.

People are still walking away from their homes/mortgages in droves. There was a report out today that there are 2.3 million homes for sale that are vacant. That's the highest number since they started recording data.

Banks are left holding the bag on these loans while prices plummet. Not only are they losing money on the loan, but they're getting their asses kicked by the OTC derivatives (that they also own) that are leveraged against these loans. The estimate is that the notional value of these worthless derivatives is $20 TRILLION, with a T.

Wonder why the Fed lowered rates when they should be raising rates? To save the banks. That along with their bailouts and "auctions" (AKA trading money for worthless OTC derivatives) and everything is hunky-dory on bubblevision.

BTW, when you see existing home sales figures, remember that a foreclosure is a sale. Existing home sales are reflections of a transfer of deed, including a transfer to the foreclosing bank.

[ChiefaRoo]

Hell, it's not just a recession it's the Apokilipse.. I've got foodstuffs and spares crammed into my guest room to last two years for three to five people, I've got my Honda generators hooked up a new kick ass Rotweiler puppy and have 20,000 rounds of ammo for my assault rifle. Lastly, I've been scouting around for genetically acceptable females for, umm, company and for repopulating the Midwest when it all goes down in a few months. After it hits, I'm going to lead a raiding party into Okiehoma and snuff out what's left in Tulsa and annoint myself King. I'm coming for you Skip!

That is all. It was nice knowing you fellas. PR Capone is taking recruit info from anyone who wants to join my new World Order.

That is all.

[Adept Havelock]

Hell, it's not just a recession it's the Apokilipse.. I've got foodstuffs and spares crammed into my guest room to last two years for three to five people, I've got my Honda generators hooked up a new kick ass Rotweiler puppy and have 20,000 rounds of ammo for my assault rifle. Lastly, I've been scouting around for genetically acceptable females for, umm, company and for repopulating the Midwest when it all goes down in a few months. After it hits, I'm going to lead a raiding party into Okiehoma and snuff out what's left in Tulsa and annoint myself King. I'm coming for you Skip!

That is all. It was nice knowing you fellas. PR Capone is taking recruit info from anyone who wants to join my new World Order.

That is all.

Too bad you forgot the streptomyicin that you'll need to protect you from the plague that will result from all the unburied dead bodies.

[Stewie]

Hell, it's not just a recession it's the Apokilipse.. I've got foodstuffs and spares crammed into my guest room to last two years for three to five people, I've got my Honda generators hooked up a new kick ass Rotweiler puppy and have 20,000 rounds of ammo for my assault rifle. Lastly, I've been scouting around for genetically acceptable females for, umm, company and for repopulating the Midwest when it all goes down in a few months. After it hits, I'm going to lead a raiding party into Okiehoma and snuff out what's left in Tulsa and annoint myself King. I'm coming for you Skip!

That is all. It was nice knowing you fellas. PR Capone is taking recruit info from anyone who wants to join my new World Order.

That is all.

If you were smart and not a smartass you'd know how to make a boatload of money in times like these. But that would take some work and intelligence, which you appear to lack.

[KC Dan]

When I drive by the malls or other shopping centers and see the parking lots empty or the lack of massive traffic on a weekend, I'll worry....

[Stewie]

When I drive by the malls or other shopping centers and see the parking lots empty or the lack of massive traffic on a weekend, I'll worry....

Cars at the mall? Good luck with that economic indicator.

[BIG_DADDY]

If you were smart and not a smartass you'd know how to make a boatload of money in times like these. But that would take some work and intelligence, which you appear to lack.

OK Mr. Trump

[Stewie]

OK Mr. Trump


What do you want to discuss economically? CBs, SIVs, OTC derivatives, default swaps, CDOs, currency hedges, arbitrage? Bring it on. You're the "investment" professional.

[Mr. Flopnuts]

Recession or not, paying $3.44 for a gallon of gas sure makes me feel like we're in one.

$3.71 here. Wait until it hits $5 this summer. We'll see what everyone thinks then.

[ChiefaRoo]

If you were smart and not a smartass you'd know how to make a boatload of money in times like these. But that would take some work and intelligence, which you appear to lack.

Hell Stewie, I bought BAC at 35.3 and nice bevy of other investments. I'm in sideways and ready for the rebound in the next year or so.

[ChiefaRoo]

Hell Stewie, I bought BAC at 35.3 and nice bevy of other investments. I'm in sideways and ready for the rebound in the next year or so.

But if the apokilipse hits I'm still invading Tulsa.

[Stewie]

Hell Stewie, I bought BAC at 35.3 and nice bevy of other investments. I'm in sideways and ready for the rebound in the next year or so.

Banks have been hammered, so for the short term BAC is OK. They still have huge problems with mortgages and the underlying derivatives. When/if you get to a 20% profit I'd shorten my stops. That way you're guaranteed a profit.

[BIG_DADDY]

What do you want to discuss economically? CBs, SIVs, OTC derivatives, default swaps, CDOs, currency hedges, arbitrage? Bring it on. You're the "investment" professional.

ROFL

[Stewie]

ROFL

Yep, I knew it. Someone who knows 0.01% more than the sucker they're trying to bilk. You're a dime a dozen... hell, dozen?... a million.

Just so I know. Do you know what LTCM is, and how we're in the same boat?

[Stewie]

And this headline kills me!

Fed lowers rates, hints cuts may be at end

Really? Wow! They're already negative rates. You would make money borrowing money if you're a bank! How can I get in this game?

[KC Dan]

Cars at the mall? Good luck with that economic indicator.
I agree that it is a "rough" indicator however all of the gov't provided numbers are always suspect as are many financial firm numbers. Even though I have an MBA and am smart enough to know "what is up", the lack of consumer confidence and inflationary pressures usually precedes the precipitious drop in consumer spending but that hasn't happened yet. And, even though the housing and credit nightmares are occurring, reality hasn't really hit consumers yet and since our spending is the majority of our economy - I don't see the doom beginning quite yet. Once we stop spending - all bets are off.

[Stewie]

I agree that it is a "rough" indicator however all of the gov't provided numbers are always suspect as are many financial firm numbers. Even though I have an MBA and am smart enough to know "what is up", the lack of consumer confidence and inflationary pressures usually precedes the precipitious drop in consumer spending but that hasn't happened yet. And, even though the housing and credit nightmares are occurring, reality hasn't really hit consumers yet and since our spending is the majority of our economy - I don't see the doom beginning quite yet. Once we stop spending - all bets are off.

There's a huge lag between reported numbers and reality. That's why they say recessions (well, short ones) are never known until they've passed.

Here's a little food for thought:

<tt> A Washington think tank is warning that housing prices are falling at an accelerating level, destroying wealth at a pace that will cost the average homeowner $85,000 in lost wealth this year alone.

The projections by the Center for Economic and Policy Research are based on the numbers in Tuesday's Case-Shiller home price index, which showed accelerating price declines in most big cities.

The annual rate of price decline over the last quarter was 24.9% in the 20-city index and 25.8% in the 10-city index," the center said in its Housing Market Monitor today. "At this rate of price decline, the excesses of the housing bubble will have largely disappeared by the end of the year. At the same time, the price decline implies an incredibly rapid loss of wealth. In real terms, the rate of price decline in the 20-city index would imply a loss of almost $6 trillion in real housing wealth over the course of the year, an average of $85,000 per homeowner."

This is a loss of $85K when during the boom it was a gain of $85K and homeowners HELOC'd and mortgaged themselves to the hilt.
</tt>

[BIG_DADDY]

Yep, I knew it. Someone who knows 0.01% more than the sucker they're trying to bilk. You're a dime a dozen... hell, dozen?... a million.

Just so I know. Do you know what LTCM is, and how we're in the same boat?

First of all I will never come on here and discuss my work, that's the last thing I want to talk about. Secondly I am not a stock broker. I am 1/3 partner in a fee based wealth management and advisory firm with a 1 million minimum that works exclusively for senior executives of high technology companies. That involves a lot of stuff. Our performance is great. We rarely lose clients.

A dime a million? OK if you say so big Stewie.

[Logical]

All I know is that thank goodness this is not a recession. My son and daughter-in-law may reap the benefit of this anti-recession as they may be able to buy a foreclosed home worth a million for the $146K the people still owe on their 23 year old mortgage they can no longer pay. :D

[KC Dan]

There's a huge lag between reported numbers and reality. That's why they say recessions (well, short ones) are never known until they've passed.

Here's a little food for thought:

<TT>A Washington think tank is warning that housing prices are falling at an accelerating level, destroying wealth at a pace that will cost the average homeowner $85,000 in lost wealth this year alone.

The projections by the Center for Economic and Policy Research are based on the numbers in Tuesday's Case-Shiller home price index, which showed accelerating price declines in most big cities.

The annual rate of price decline over the last quarter was 24.9% in the 20-city index and 25.8% in the 10-city index," the center said in its Housing Market Monitor today. "At this rate of price decline, the excesses of the housing bubble will have largely disappeared by the end of the year. At the same time, the price decline implies an incredibly rapid loss of wealth. In real terms, the rate of price decline in the 20-city index would imply a loss of almost $6 trillion in real housing wealth over the course of the year, an average of $85,000 per homeowner."

This is a loss of $85K when during the boom it was a gain of $85K and homeowners HELOC'd and mortgaged themselves to the hilt.
</TT>
Absolutely true! However, Americans are not known for their ability to truly understand their "wealth value". They (for the most part) only believe they are in trouble and stop spending when they have no $$$ in their bank accounts and don't really understand that they have lost serious net value when including home equity (value). If jobs go away in large numbers this all changes very quickly. The lowering of rates to such a low value has killed the valuation of the dollar but and it's a big but, companies have not reduced R&D and expenses drastically yet due to the lower rates.

[Stewie]

First of all I will never come on here and discuss my work, that's the last thing I want to talk about. Secondly I am not a stock broker. I am 1/3 partner in a fee based wealth management and advisory firm with a 1 million minimum that works exclusively for senior executives of high technology companies. That involves a lot of stuff. Our performance is great. We rarely lose clients.

A dime a million? OK if you say so big Stewie.

I was talking in general, big shot. If you can't discuss arbitrage, LTCM, CDOs, etc. then you're hiding behind ignorance. I don't give a damn about what fees you get from people who have millions. That's the easiest money for lazy people to make.

[Logical]

Absolutely true! However, Americans are not known for their ability to truly understand their "wealth value". They (for the most part) only believe they are in trouble and stop spending when they have no $$$ in their bank accounts and don't really understand that they have lost serious net value when including home equity (value). If jobs go away in large numbers this all changes very quickly. The lowering of rates to such a low value has killed the valuation of the dollar but and it's a big but, companies have not reduced R&D and expenses drastically yet due to the lower rates.


Won't matter when the foreign nationals quit buying up our debt. Reality will be like a lead balloon sinking our economy and taking much of the EU with it.

[BIG_DADDY]

I was talking in general, big shot. If you can't discuss arbitrage, LTCM, CDOs, etc. then you're hiding behind ignorance. I don't give a damn about what fees you get from people who have millions. That's the easiest money for lazy people to make.

Can't and want to are two different things.

They are the founders and senior executives of high technology companies. If you think that is easy money to get when you are competing against the brokerage firms that take them public the you are the ignorant one.

Why are you so angry? You lose your ass or something?

[Stewie]

Absolutely true! However, Americans are not known for their ability to truly understand their "wealth value". They (for the most part) only believe they are in trouble and stop spending when they have no $$$ in their bank accounts and don't really understand that they have lost serious net value when including home equity (value). If jobs go away in large numbers this all changes very quickly. The lowering of rates to such a low value has killed the valuation of the dollar but and it's a big but, companies have not reduced R&D and expenses drastically yet due to the lower rates.

Ay, there's the rub! Perception vs. reality. HELOCs, credit cards, "I'm going to get a raise to make $60K (with a $400K mortgage). We're in an upside down financial world.

BTW, we have negative savings as a nation.

[Stewie]

Can't and want to are two different things.

They are the founders and senior executives of high technology companies. If you think that is easy money to get when you are competing against the brokerage firms that take them public the you are the ignorant one.

Why are you so angry? You lose your ass or something?


Huh? WHAT? You're protecting clientele by not posting about LTCM? Wow! They must really be astute. I'm pretty sure LTCM is public knowledge... although you and they may not have a clue about it.

Oh, and NOPE. I've done very well with investments. I pay vigorous attention.

[BIG_DADDY]

Oh, and NOPE. I've done very well with investments. I pay vigorous attention.

Ay, there's the rub! Perception vs. reality. HELOCs, credit cards, "I'm going to get a raise to make $60K (with a $400K mortgage). We're in an upside down financial world.



Yea I can see. Should be making the Forbes 500 any day now. Rage on Mr. Trump, this dipshit never meant to slow you down.

[Stewie]

Yea I can see. Should be making the Forbes 500 any day now. Rage on Mr. Trump, this dipshit never meant to slow you down.


Yep, once again, no real response. Everyone move along.

[Logical]

I guess some people are correct, this place just brews negativity. Two people who seem to have a bunch in common are trading rhetorical jabs over finance issues that the vast majority on the BB cannot even relate to, instead of discussing them in a way that would increase other readers knowledge set. :(

[Hydrae]

I guess some people are correct, this place just brews negativity. Two people who seem to have a bunch in common are trading rhetorical jabs over finance issues that the vast majority on the BB cannot even relate to, instead of discussing them in a way that would increase other readers knowledge set. :(

Well, this is the DC side of things. :)

[Logical]

Well, this is the DC side of things. :)Sorry, should have been specific, I meant DC when I made that comment.

[Rain Man]

I must say, I've had a few clients laying people off, which hasn't happened since the tech bust right when I started my company back in 1999/2000.

[banyon]

I guess some people are correct, this place just brews negativity. Two people who seem to have a bunch in common are trading rhetorical jabs over finance issues that the vast majority on the BB cannot even relate to, instead of discussing them in a way that would increase other readers knowledge set. :(

It was better when they both had infant avatars.

[Stewie]

I guess some people are correct, this place just brews negativity. Two people who seem to have a bunch in common are trading rhetorical jabs over finance issues that the vast majority on the BB cannot even relate to, instead of discussing them in a way that would increase other readers knowledge set. :(

There are only negative jabs towards me. The counter-party can't think himself out of a wet paper bag. I've asked time and time again for substantial recourse, but there's no response, just negativity. He's supposedly an investment professional, but can't answer the simplest of questions. He just gets very defensive.

[Logical]

There are only negative jabs towards me. The counter-party can't think himself out of a wet paper bag. I've asked time and time again for substantial recourse, but there's no response, just negativity. He's supposedly an investment professional, but can't answer the simplest of questions. He just gets very defensive.

I know Troy, and my guess is he has to protect the confidentiality of his clients and as such is reluctant to discuss the methods his company employs. I have a suspicion that off-shore tax shelters might be involved for example. He is probably better off not discussing such things over a public BB. Perhaps if you two would PM you could broker a detente.

[BIG_DADDY]

There are only negative jabs towards me. The counter-party can't think himself out of a wet paper bag. I've asked time and time again for substantial recourse, but there's no response, just negativity. He's supposedly an investment professional, but can't answer the simplest of questions. He just gets very defensive.

I had no negative issues with you until awhile back when you found me in a thread talking about how ridiculous it was for posters to cap on California considering how much we bring to the table. For some reason you began to blast me out of left field for no reason and it hasn't stopped since. Why would I attempt to have constructive dialog with a person that has called me me every name in the book and accused me of being a lazy asshole that preys on people and rips them off? I'm certainly am not going to engage just because you're baiting me.

Bottom line is you are obviously very angry and feels the need to take it out on somebody else which is what was going on when I came into this thread. You may very well understand a lot of things better than even myself when it comes to different areas of investing. I don't have an interest in trying to be an expert in all areas but I certainly know the areas that pertain to my business very well and those areas of making money.

Lastly if you have noticed in all the years I have posted here I have never talked about investing on this board, ever. I very, very rarely will scratch the surface of the big picture when it comes to economics, politics and the global picture and how it effects us. I have had a few of these conversations with Jim a long time back. Other than a very small handful here most people won't grasp any of it. People who post here want to debate what the talking heads on TV are selling the general public for the most part. Trying to discuss the real reason for being in the ME and Iraq or why we are letting the dollar drop so much and how that ties into the EU and what we are trying to accomplish there and how that effects our economy and our investments here would be a HUGE waste of my time and add no value to my life. Probably get me nothing more than a bunch of lame insults from someone like yourself. The last person I would want to go down that road with is you based upon your history with me. If that makes me an idiot in your eyes then so be it, quiet frankly I could care less what you think.

[BIG_DADDY]

I know Troy, and my guess is he has to protect the confidentiality of his clients and as such is reluctant to discuss the methods his company employs. I have a suspicion that off-shore tax shelters might be involved for example. He is probably better off not discussing such things over a public BB. Perhaps if you two would PM you could broker a detente.


The two of us have scratched the surface before on different areas like say offshore shell corporations and tax sheltering like WAY back. First of all I don't think he most likely would make a good prospect for such a venture and lastly based upon his bitter unprovoked dialog with me in the past I have zero interest. Let him rant on. I'm just a fraud and rip off artist that lives in California of all places so I must also be a loser and hippie too. It's about time they kicked all of us losers out here on the West coast out of the union. :cuss:

I'm out of here for the weekend in a few minutes, there are some old ladies I need to roll for their IRA. You guys take care and enjot that California sun this weekend. Travis 1st birthday so I'm looking forward to it.

[Stewie]

The two of us have scratched the surface before on different areas like say offshore shell corporations and tax sheltering like WAY back. First of all I don't think he most likely would make a good prospect for such a venture and lastly based upon his bitter unprovoked dialog with me in the past I have zero interest. Let him rant on. I'm just a fraud and rip off artist that lives in California of all places so I must also be a loser and hippie too. It's about time they kicked all of us losers out here on the West coast out of the union. :cuss:

I'm out of here for the weekend in a few minutes, there are some old ladies I need to roll for their IRA. You guys take care and enjot that California sun this weekend. Travis 1st birthday so I'm looking forward to it.

I've never asked how you invest for your clients. I've only asked your opinion on things like SIVs, CDOs, and the like. You've never given any response other than ROFL. That, to me, means you really don't understand those sorts of things and their implications. And I've never used the word **** in any response, but you used it several times when you were offended in the GM food thread. Something about Cali being the 13th largest economy in the world, which was a non-sequitur. Exxon Mobil isn't far behind Cali, so what does that mean?

I've read alot of threads in DC concerning economics and the hilarity will continue. It's just so misguided. I thought there was at least someone who really understood the big picture, but if sheltering millionaires from paying taxes lines your pocketbook, then good for you, but it's bad for everyone else who lives in California.

[Logical]

The two of us have scratched the surface before on different areas like say offshore shell corporations and tax sheltering like WAY back. First of all I don't think he most likely would make a good prospect for such a venture and lastly based upon his bitter unprovoked dialog with me in the past I have zero interest. Let him rant on. I'm just a fraud and rip off artist that lives in California of all places so I must also be a loser and hippie too. It's about time they kicked all of us losers out here on the West coast out of the union. :cuss:

I'm out of here for the weekend in a few minutes, there are some old ladies I need to roll for their IRA. You guys take care and enjot that California sun this weekend. Travis 1st birthday so I'm looking forward to it.

Wow, a year already, amazing. Enjoy

[ChiefaRoo]

Won't matter when the foreign nationals quit buying up our debt. Reality will be like a lead balloon sinking our economy and taking much of the EU with it.

Yeah, lets just quit now. Fu*k it.

[Logical]

Yeah, lets just quit now. Fu*k it.
That is just crazy, prepare for the giant fall and you can not only economically survive it, but you can profit while it falls. You seem smart enough to understand the principle.

[ChiefaRoo]

That is just crazy, prepare for the giant fall and you can not only economically survive it, but you can profit while it falls. You seem smart enough to understand the principle.

I don't like your attitude.

[Logical]

I don't like your attitude.Why don't you like it, you got something against profit?

[ClevelandBronco]

Why don't you like it, you got something against profit?

Just a guess, but I'm betting that he's not a fan of your bearish attitude toward our present economic situation. I doubt that it has anything to do with the prospect of making profits in a depressed (should I say recessed?) economy. (Should I even say recessed at this point?)

Then again, what the heck do I know about his opinion?

Yeah.

Hmm.

That was a great draft you guys just had.

[Saggysack]

More bad news...

Economists predict employers will cut jobs again
By JEANNINE AVERSA
AP Economics Writer

Paul Sancya
WASHINGTON - The country is bracing for more bad news on the jobs front. In advance of Friday's employment snapshot from the Labor Department, economists were predicting that employers cut jobs yet again in April. That would mark the fourth straight month of job losses. The unemployment rate, now at 5.1 percent, is expected to edge up a notch.

Businesses are handing out more and more pink slips as they cope with an economy that is teetering on the edge of a recession, or possibly in one already. A severe housing slump, harder-to-get credit and financial turmoil have forced people and businesses to be more cautious in their spending. And that has hurt the economy.

The economy grew at a feeble 0.6 percent pace in the first three months of this year. A growing number of analysts believe the economy is shrinking now, one of the signals of recession.

[Stewie]

More bad news...

Economists predict employers will cut jobs again
By JEANNINE AVERSA
AP Economics Writer

Paul Sancya
WASHINGTON - The country is bracing for more bad news on the jobs front. In advance of Friday's employment snapshot from the Labor Department, economists were predicting that employers cut jobs yet again in April. That would mark the fourth straight month of job losses. The unemployment rate, now at 5.1 percent, is expected to edge up a notch.

Businesses are handing out more and more pink slips as they cope with an economy that is teetering on the edge of a recession, or possibly in one already. A severe housing slump, harder-to-get credit and financial turmoil have forced people and businesses to be more cautious in their spending. And that has hurt the economy.

The economy grew at a feeble 0.6 percent pace in the first three months of this year. A growing number of analysts believe the economy is shrinking now, one of the signals of recession.

There are two ways of collecting data. The U.S. Gov't prefers the rosiest outlook:

Job cuts in April less severe than feared

<!-- BEGIN STORY BODY --> By Glenn Somerville 45 minutes ago

<!-- end storyhdr --> WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy lost jobs for the fourth month in a row in April but at a slower pace than earlier in the year, easing fears that the economy was at a growing risk of slipping into a deep recession.
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The gov't uses things like birth/death models which are basically guesses (and ALWAYS increase employment numbers) that are included in their numbers.

Then there are independent surveys which show things like this. Not apples to apples, but paint a very different picture.

Layoffs rise 68 percent in April vs March: survey
[I]Thu May 1, 7:33 AM ET
U.S. companies' planned layoffs jumped 68 percent in April from the prior month to the highest since September 2006, pointing to further deterioration in the labor market, a report showed on Thursday.
Planned job cuts in U.S. companies totaled 90,015 last month, up from 53,579 in March and up 27 percent from a year earlier, employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported.
The April layoffs were the steepest since the 100,315 cuts announced in September 2006.
Most of the announced job cuts came from the financial sector, due to the housing slump and about $300 billion in write-downs on bad mortgages and investments, the firm said.
The financial services industry announced 23,106 cuts in April with almost half of them occurring in a two-day period that saw hefty planned layoffs from Citigroup (C.N) and Merrill Lynch (MER.N), it said.

[Stewie]

"No banker left behind!

This is getting sickening. At the current rate of dollar expansion, there will be twice as many dollars in circulation four years from now. Will you be making 2x your present salary then?

WASHINGTON/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Major central banks on Friday announced larger liquidity injections in a bid to wrestle down market interest rates as they extended joint efforts to tackle stubborn tensions on money markets.

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The Federal Reserve said it would step up the amounts offered in some cash auctions to financial institutions, while the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank will boost their auctions of U.S. dollar funds for European banks.

The Fed will also widen the scope of assets it accepts as collateral in its Term Securities Lending Facility auctions.

WTF? You're already taking worthless derivative crap as collateral. What's next? Pieces of string from a homeless man's collection? Nah, that would never happen. If only he were a banker.

[eazyb81]

I hope not. I'm certainly no financial whiz but when a guy like Buffett (Warren, not Jimmy) is convinced we're in for some really bad times, I get worried.

That's when it's Jimmy Buffett/Margarita time.

Warren is undoubtedly a financial genius, but he still misses on a fair share of his predictions.

Last year at his BH's annual meeting, he mentioned that the subprime issue would not have a major effect on the economy.

I hope he's wrong and this thing is coming to an end, because I'm going to be looking for a job in a few months.

[Stewie]

Warren is undoubtedly a financial genius, but he still misses on a fair share of his predictions.

Last year at his BH's annual meeting, he mentioned that the subprime issue would not have a major effect on the economy.

I hope he's wrong and this thing is coming to an end, because I'm going to be looking for a job in a few months.

I'd like to see that quote. He coined the phrase "financial weapons of mass destruction" when referring to subprime (and other mortgages) and the $20 trillion of derivatives written on them.

BTW, WB isn't a normal investor. He buys huge chunks of companies so he has a voice in how things are run. Our 50, 100, 1000 shares are dwarfed by the big shareholders' voices.

[eazyb81]

I'd like to see that quote. He coined the phrase "financial weapons of mass destruction" when referring to subprime (and other mortgages) and the $20 trillion of derivatives written on them.

Yep, he did say that, but that was after more warning signs came to the surface.

Here is a blurb from Yahoo about it:

Last year, he said subprime mortgages did not pose a "huge danger" to the economy, and that absent surges in unemployment and interest rates, "it's unlikely that that factor triggers anything of a massive nature in the general economy."


BTW, WB isn't a normal investor. He buys huge chunks of companies so he has a voice in how things are run. Our 50, 100, 1000 shares are dwarfed by the big shareholders' voices.

Of course, he's an activist investor and uses BRK as a holding company. Still, when The Oracle talks, people listen.

[Stewie]

Yep, he did say that, but that was after more warning signs came to the surface.

Here is a blurb from Yahoo about it:

Last year, he said subprime mortgages did not pose a "huge danger" to the economy, and that absent surges in unemployment and interest rates, "it's unlikely that that factor triggers anything of a massive nature in the general economy."




Of course, he's an activist investor and uses BRK as a holding company. Still, when The Oracle talks, people listen.

WOW!!! JUST WOW!!!! This just out...

<!-- end storyhdr --> OMAHA, Nebraska (Reuters) - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) (BRKb.N) said on Friday that first- quarter profit tumbled 64 percent, hurt by $1.6 billion of pre- tax losses tied to derivatives contracts.
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Net income fell to $940 million, or $607 per Class A share, from $2.6 billion, or $1,682, a year earlier.



How in the world is he involved in derivatives?!!! He claimed he was smarter than that. I guess the lure of (apparent) easy money is too great even for WB.



http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080502/bs_nm/berkshire_results_dc_1

[Logical]

...

<!-- BEGIN STORY BODY --> By Glenn Somerville 45 minutes ago

<!-- end storyhdr --> WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy lost jobs for the fourth month in a row in April but at a slower pace than earlier in the year, easing fears that the economy was at a growing risk of slipping into a deep recession.
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The gov't uses things like birth/death models which are basically guesses (and ALWAYS increase employment numbers) that are included in their numbers.

Then there are independent surveys which show things like this. Not apples to apples, but paint a very different picture.
...[I].Would this be an acknowledgement that the economy is already in a recession?

[Stewie]

Would this be an acknowledgement that the economy is already in a recession?

I think most economists think we're in a recession. It's not a recession by definition because that requires two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. BUT, the gov't numbers are so manipulated that they don't reflect reality. The data has become too politicized (especially in an election year), so are taken with a grain of salt.

That reminds me of a story about Lyndon Johnson. While he was in office in the '60s there was poor economic data that he didn't like. He told the group to look over the numbers again and resubmit the report to him. He had them do this a total of three times until the numbers were massaged to his liking. Things have changed since then, for the worse. Now, the numbers are massaged so much they're to the point of being nearly useless.

[BucEyedPea]

BUT, [b]the gov't numbers are so manipulated that they don't reflect reality.[b/] The data has become too politicized (especially in an election year), so are taken with a grain of salt.

Things have changed since then, for the worse. Now, the numbers are massaged so much they're to the point of being nearly useless.

Exactly. :thumb: Yet, intelligent people eat it up the illogics in them is what get's me but then politics is partisan right down to the party minions.