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View Full Version : Chiefs Despite Vermeil years... Chiefs are in the upper echelon of Drafting from '96-'05


Direckshun
05-26-2008, 02:55 PM
This post is twofold... it's an interesting article, but I just want to play with the spoiler feature more than anything.

Alright, here's the link: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=531

The author exhaustingly documents every player drafted from this particular decade, and measures up their drafting spot from their performance level. Purely value-based.

So which team drafts the best? Guess.

The Colts. Not even close.

The first number is "actual value" (how the players played) the second number "draft value" (where they were drafted), and the last number is the difference.

Indianapolis Colts 40.74 31.12 9.62
Green Bay Packers 34.89 28.87 6.02
Baltimore Ravens 35.99 30.54 5.45
Pittsburgh Steelers 36.61 31.19 5.42
Philadelphia Eagles 38.42 33.26 5.16
Dallas Cowboys 34.79 31.07 3.72
Tennessee Titans 37.90 34.83 3.07
Buffalo Bills 32.25 29.38 2.88
New York Giants 31.40 28.78 2.62
Jacksonville Jaguars 37.47 35.15 2.33
Chicago Bears 37.36 35.30 2.05
New England Patriots 35.75 34.55 1.20
Kansas City Chiefs 27.47 27.08 0.39
St. Louis Rams 36.19 35.80 0.39
Seattle Seahawks 34.62 34.59 0.03
New York Jets 32.24 32.25 -0.01
Denver Broncos 30.47 30.71 -0.24
Miami Dolphins 30.06 30.36 -0.30
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29.18 29.63 -0.46
Atlanta Falcons 28.30 29.10 -0.80
Carolina Panthers 29.91 31.60 -1.69
Cincinnati Bengals 34.15 36.19 -2.05
San Francisco 49ers 28.70 30.84 -2.14
Washington Redskins 23.95 26.58 -2.63
San Diego Chargers 28.54 31.46 -2.93
Minnesota Vikings 29.50 32.65 -3.15
Houston Texans 12.37 15.58 -3.21
Oakland Raiders 26.76 31.17 -4.42
Arizona Cardinals 34.13 38.78 -4.65
New Orleans Saints 25.01 30.81 -5.80
Cleveland Browns 21.24 28.12 -6.87
Detroit Lions 23.66 32.66 -9.01

The surprising thing is that everything considered, the Chiefs are thirteenth. (The Lions are last.) That shatters my expectations, but keep in mind that does include the tail end of the Marty years and the two or three Vermeil steals.

Also: this is all prior to the Herm years.

The author lists the best and worst 35 picks in terms of pure value. The best? Obviously it's Brady. The worst? Obviously it's Ryan Leaf.

Two Chiefs made the best 35 picks, Jared Allen (#28) and Donnie Edwards (#33). They also made the 22nd worst pick of that decade, everybody say it with me now, Ryan Sims.

The awful selection of Sims makes us overlook the fact that the Chiefs have actually drafted exceptionally well with the first round pick in terms of sheer value over this decade.

Which teams have been the best and worst drafters in the first round?

Indianapolis Colts 16.42 9.26 7.16
Baltimore Ravens 17.01 12.67 4.34
Pittsburgh Steelers 12.20 9.07 3.12
Minnesota Vikings 13.27 11.57 1.71
Jacksonville Jaguars 12.81 11.41 1.40
Kansas City Chiefs 8.70 7.51 1.19

Chiefs are sixth. Who the hell knew?

Who are the best and worst drafting teams in rounds four through seven?

Green Bay Packers 18.06 10.63 7.43
Tennessee Titans 16.79 13.51 3.28
Baltimore Ravens 12.46 10.23 2.24
Indianapolis Colts 12.78 10.56 2.21
Chicago Bears 14.97 12.83 2.14
Dallas Cowboys 12.52 10.69 1.83
Kansas City Chiefs 12.56 10.72 1.83

Again, the Chiefs exceed expectations. They rank seventh.

To top it all off, the author lists the three best and worst picks by each team over this particular decade.

The Chiefs' best... see if you can guess them...

kan 2004 126 1.28 Jared Allen
kan 1996 98 1.22 Donnie Edwards
kan 1997 13 1.17 Tony Gonzalez

And their worst?

an 2002 6 -0.80 Ryan Sims
kan 2000 21 -0.72 Sylvester Morris
kan 2004 36 -0.62 Junior Siavii

cdcox
05-26-2008, 03:02 PM
Seems like injury shortened careers (like Sly Mo) should be removed from the rankinging.

el borracho
05-26-2008, 03:08 PM
What nonsense.

FAX
05-26-2008, 03:12 PM
Amazingly complex, intricate, and elaborate post, Mr. Direckshun.

My compliments.

FAX

milkman
05-26-2008, 04:16 PM
Wow!

That guy really bought the Kool-Aid!

Count Zarth
05-26-2008, 04:18 PM
Delete this thread now before Gretz or Dufus Rawes see it.

Marcellus
05-26-2008, 04:33 PM
Most of this is bogus if you ask me.

If a guy like Jared Allen gets picked in the 4th round at 126, so he is passed over by every team at least 3 times and some of them 4 x or more and then he is selected by KC and becomes a pro-bowler, how is that great drafting? Sounds more like dumb luck to me. The grading should only take into account the first 2 rounds.

Any big success on a late rounder is as much luck as anything else in my opinion. Yes you have to do your homework and make the decision when multiple players are on the board but didn't the same people who decided to pick Sims at #6 pick Allen?

Maximizing your early draft picks seems to be more skill than maximizing later picks. Most later picks are considered developmental projects that hopefully get better and contribute.

Early picks are expected to contribute and make an impact early, and those failures hurt a lot more.
JMHO:shrug:

milkman
05-26-2008, 04:37 PM
If we did such an outstanding job of drafting, how did we end up sucking so hard?

stumppy
05-26-2008, 04:43 PM
Most of this is bogus if you ask me.

If a guy like Jared Allen gets picked in the 4th round at 126, so he is passed over by every team at least 3 times and some of them 4 x or more and then he is selected by KC and becomes a pro-bowler, how is that great drafting? Sounds more like dumb luck to me. The grading should only take into account the first 2 rounds.

Any big success on a late rounder is as much luck as anything else in my opinion. Yes you have to do your homework and make the decision when multiple players are on the board but didn't the same people who decided to pick Sims at #6 pick Allen?

Maximizing your early draft picks seems to be more skill than maximizing later picks. Most later picks are considered developmental projects that hopefully get better and contribute.

Early picks are expected to contribute and make an impact early, and those failures hurt a lot more.
JMHO:shrug:


Your evaluation is right on target for 31 of the teams. What you fail to consider is the advantage the Chiefs have. When you're able to integrate a solid 17 year superbowl plan with a solid 17 year draft plan you don't have to maximize your early picks every year.

Smed1065
05-26-2008, 04:46 PM
Where are the stats for the 2nd round picks only?

Basileus777
05-26-2008, 04:49 PM
There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Direckshun
05-26-2008, 04:58 PM
If we did such an outstanding job of drafting, how did we end up sucking so hard?
Couple reasons.

Our drafting on the first day, other than the very first round, has been horrific.

Secondly, and this is more important, the Chiefs didn't trust their own drafting in the Vermeil years. They traded too many picks away for castoffs and built a band-aid team of age instead of building a true foundation of youth. The Broncos are doing the exact same thing right now.

Rausch
05-26-2008, 05:03 PM
Couple reasons.

Our drafting on the first day, other than the very first round, has been horrific.

Secondly, and this is more important, the Chiefs didn't trust their own drafting in the Vermeil years. They traded too many picks away for castoffs and built a band-aid team of age instead of building a true foundation of youth. The Broncos are doing the exact same thing right now.

More importantly, the players we added WITH draft picks were all +30.

Green
Roaf
DV picks

With those picks we added talent but also got older. We also spent picks just to get DV.

And we didn't suck hard under DV, we sucked hard after DV.

keg in kc
05-26-2008, 06:06 PM
The 1996 draft (Woods, Tongue, Browning, Edward$ and Joe Horn) and Tony Gonzalez in 1997 completely skew that. If the ranking started in 1998, we'd be in the bottom 5, and not the top third.

Amnorix
05-26-2008, 07:30 PM
I was having massive trouble with the Patriots being listed at 12th, but then remembered the timeframe of this analysis, and I obviously have to acknowledge the giant, sucking black holes that were the Patriots 1997-99 drafts. So maybe, I guess...