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View Full Version : Elections Democrats going to make an incredibly strong push for House seats.


Direckshun
07-23-2008, 02:51 PM
This is just a gem from electoral-vote.com.

This is a continuation of the thread I posted a day or two ago (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=187596) that showed how the DCCC's fundraising has spanked the NRCC's for House races:

June fundraising:

DCCC $10 million
NRCC $6 million

Cash on hand:

DCCC $55 million
NRCC $9 million

Electoral-vote.com writes:

Yesterday we noted that the DCCC has $55 million cash on hand. Now Talking Points Memo has obtained the list of how DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen plans to spend that money. He is going to dump $17 million into districts where Democrats hold the seat and face a serious challenge. Many of these seats are in Republican territory. The amount he is going to spend per district depends on local circumstances, such as how much money the incumbent has raised already, what the chance is that the Republicans can take it away, and how expensive the media markets are. Here are the numbers. Remember than $1 million is a lot of money in the average House race.

CD Incumbent Party Amount
AZ-05 Harry Mitchell D 1,700,000
IN-09 Baron Hill D 1,600,000
FL-16 Tim Mahoney D 1,500,000
KS-02 Nancy Boyda D 1,200,000
OR-05 Open (Darlene Hooley) D 1,200,000
TX-22 Nick Lampson D 1,100,000
MS-01 Travis Childers D 1,060,000
IL-14 Bill Foster D 1,020,000
LA-06 Don Cazayoux D 723,000
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez D 707,000
AZ-08 Gabrielle Giffords D 705,000
AL-05 Open (Bud Cramer) D 678,000
KY-03 John Yarmuth D 659,000
NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter D 564,000
PA-04 Jason Altmire D 554,000
WI-08 Steve Kagen D 475,000

However, the bulk of Van Hollen's money is going to defeat incumbent Republicans or go after open Republican-held House seats. He has chosen 33 races and will dump $33 million in them combined. Here is the breakdown.

CD Incumbent Party Amount
NY-25/NY-26/NY-29 Open (Jim Walsh)/Open (Tom Reynolds)/Randy Kuhl R/R/R 2,700,000
NJ-07 Open (Mike Ferguson) R 1,800,000
NJ-03 Open (Jim Saxton) R 1,700,000
AZ-01 Open (Rick Renzi) R 1,700,000
IL-11 Open (Jerry Weller) R 1,600,000
NC-08 Robin Hayes R 1,600,000
MI-07 Tim Walberg R 1,500,000
IL-10 Mark Kirk R 1,400,000
MN-03 Open (Jim Ramstad) R 1,400,000
FL-18/FL-21/FL-25 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen,2xDiaz-Balart R/R/R 1,400,000
NM-01 Open (Heather Wilson) R 1,300,000
NY-13 Open (Vito Fossella) R 1,300,000
VA-11 Open (Tom Davis) R 1,300,000
OH-16 Open (Ralph Regula) R 1,300,000
NM-02 Open (Steve Pearce) R 1,200,000
OH-15 Open (Deborah Pryce) R 1,200,000
MI-09 Joe Knollenberg R 1,100,000
FL-24 Tom Feeney R 1,000,000
WA-08 Dave Reichert R 949,000
MO-09 Open (Kenny Hulshof) R 941,000
OH-01 Steve Chabot R 928,000
NV-03 Jon Porter R 916,000
MO-06 Sam Graves R 798,000
LA-04 Open (Jim McCrery) R 714,000
CT-04 Chris Shays R 697,000
CO-04 Marilyn Musgrave R 667,000
AL-02 Open (Terry Everett) R 598,000
AK-AL Don Young R 586,000
ID-01 Bill Sali R 349,000

What is also noteworthy in the list is that a lot of the money is going into open seats, which are generally much easier to flip than occupied seats. Above the Pryce-line there are only seven occupied seats, each one with its own dynamic. For example, in NC-08, Robin Hayes is the incumbent who will have the largest amount of DCCC money thrown against him. The district is R+3, but more important, in 2006, a totally unknown high school teacher, Larry Kissell, who had never been in politics before, decided to challenge the four-term multimillionaire congressman (mostly because no established politician wanted to even try). Kissel got no money from the DCCC but still managed to come within 329 votes of winning. This time he's getting $1.6 million of Van Hollen's money to finish the job.

MI-07 (Walberg) at R+2 and especially IL-10 (Kirk) at D+4 are clear targets due to their demographics. The three Florida districts get $1.4 million combined because Van Hollen understands these are longshots. In contrast, the three upstate New York districts are fair game because the state as a whole is so blue.

In addition, there are two California districts where no breakdown is given between the Democratic-held CA-11 and the Republican-held CA-04, but Van Hollen is planning to spend $2.03 million in California.

NRCC chairman Tom Cole has $9 million in his piggy bank, so he can match Van Hollen on nine races. Undoubtedly he will choose defense since holding an existing seat is always easier than winning one from the other guys. So what does Tom Cole do with his $9 million? Of the 32 Republican-held seats Van Hollen is aiming at, 17 have Republicans sitting in them who hope to be there in January. Most likely Cole will devote the bulk of his money to some fraction of those 17, particularly the ones he thinks are in great danger. Looking at the PVI's on the Hot House races page gives an idea, but you have to know all the details to have the full picture. For example, he will undoubtedly tell Robin Hayes: "If you want to keep your job, go spend $5 million of your own money to do so. You can afford it."

Direckshun
07-23-2008, 05:12 PM
I just got neg rep from SHTSPRAYER for starting this thread.

He called it "shit."

Somebody want to make sense of that?

Adept Havelock
07-23-2008, 05:22 PM
Sure. He's hyper-partisan, and it pissed him off the GOP is going to be playing defense in the congressional elections. There has been next to no talk of the GOP taking seats in either branch, only efforts to minimize losses.

SNR
07-23-2008, 05:23 PM
I just got neg rep from SHTSPRAYER for starting this thread.

He called it "shit."

Somebody want to make sense of that?If you sprayed it, then its probably because you're stealing his thunder

BigChiefFan
07-23-2008, 05:26 PM
I just got neg rep from SHTSPRAYER for starting this thread.

He called it "shit."

Somebody want to make sense of that?Yes, It's obvious he's very insecure, so he'll stop at nothing to stir the pot. He's a pathetic propoganda robot, who obviously can't bring any real discussion to the table, so he hides behind lies hoping some won't see through his thinly-veiled attempt at converting others.

Or in other words he's pathetic.