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oldandslow
07-24-2008, 10:08 AM
Honestly, I agree with Sabato's analysis (and he is about as independent as they come).

Things may change, but imho, Mr. Obama will be the next president.

http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=AIA2008072401

THE MYTH OF A TOSS-UP ELECTION

By Alan Abramowitz, Thomas E. Mann, and Larry J. Sabato

"Too close to call." "Within the margin of error." "A statistical dead heat." If you've been following news coverage of the 2008 presidential election, you're probably familiar with these phrases. Media commentary on the presidential horserace, reflecting the results of a series of new national polls, has strained to make a case for a hotly contested election that is essentially up for grabs.

Signs of Barack Obama's weaknesses allegedly abound. The huge generic Democratic Party advantage is not reflected in the McCain-Obama pairings in national polls. Why, according to the constant refrain, hasn't Obama put this election away? A large number of Clinton supporters in the primaries refuse to commit to Obama. White working class and senior voters tilt decidedly to McCain. Racial resentment limits Obama's support among these two critical voting blocs. Enthusiasm among young voters and African-Americans, two groups strongly attracted to Obama, is waning. Blah, blah, blah.

While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed--historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months--point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November. Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry. Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain's favor, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up.

Consider the following.

Except for a few days when the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls showed a tie, Barack Obama has led John McCain in every national poll in the past two months. Obama's average margin has consistently been in the 4-6 point range during this time. By contrast, the polls in 2000 and 2004 showed much more variation over time. State polling results have also consistently given Obama the advantage. According to realclearpolitics.com, Obama is currently leading in 26 states and the District of Columbia with a total of 322 electoral votes; McCain is currently leading in 24 states with a total of 216 electoral votes. Obama is leading in every state carried by John Kerry in 2004 along with six states carried by George Bush: Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, Nevada and Colorado. A seventh Bush state, Virginia, is tied.

Obama is leading in 11 of the 12 swing states that were decided by a margin of five points or less in 2004 including five of the six that were carried by George Bush. And while Obama has a comfortable lead in every state that John Kerry won by a margin of more than five points in 2004, McCain is in a difficult battle in a number of states that Bush carried by a margin of more than five points including such solidly red states as Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Virginia, and North Carolina.

And remember these June and July polls may well understate Obama's eventual margin. Ronald Reagan did not capitalize on the huge structural advantage Republicans enjoyed in 1980 until after the party conventions and presidential debate. It took a while and a sufficient level of comfort with the challenger for anti-Carter votes to translate into support for Reagan. If Obama's performance over the last eighteen months is any guide, a similar pattern could unfold in 2008.

Aside from the horserace results, there is evidence of a growing Democratic party advantage in the electorate. A recent analysis by Rhodes Cook of voter registration data in 29 states and the District of Columbia that permit registration by party shows that since November of 2004, Democratic registration has increased by almost 700,000 while Republican registration has declined by almost one million.

Democrats now enjoy a substantial lead over Republicans in voter identification. According to the Gallup Poll, the two parties have gone from near parity four years ago to a 12 point Democratic advantage in the first half of 2008. And polling data continue to show that Democrats are more satisfied with their party's nominee than Republicans voters and more highly motivated to vote. While Republicans normally benefit from higher turnout among their supporters, that may not be the case this year.

In order to defeat Barack Obama, John McCain will have to convince a lot of currently disgruntled Republicans to turn out and vote for him. Yet mobilizing the Republican base, a strategy employed successfully by Karl Rove in 2002 and 2004, won't be enough for McCain to win in 2008. He'll also have to convince a majority of independents and a substantial number of Democrats to vote for him. That's a task that proved too difficult even for Rove in the 2006 midterm election and it may be still more difficult in 2008. That's because since 2006 the political environment has gone from bad to worse for Republicans.

It is no exaggeration to say that the political environment this year is one of the worst for a party in the White House in the past sixty years. You have to go all the way back to 1952 to find an election involving the combination of an unpopular president, an unpopular war, and an economy teetering on the brink of recession. 1952 was also the last time the party in power wasn't represented by either the incumbent president or the incumbent vice-president. But the fact that Democrat Harry Truman wasn't on the ballot didn't stop Republican Dwight Eisenhower from inflicting a crushing defeat on Truman's would-be successor, Adlai Stevenson.

Barack Obama is not a national hero like Dwight Eisenhower, and George Bush is no Harry Truman. But if history is any guide, and absent a dramatic change in election fundamentals or an utter collapse of the Obama candidacy, John McCain is likely to suffer the same fate as Adlai Stevenson.

BigCatDaddy
07-24-2008, 10:11 AM
Dewey Defeats Truman!!!!

HolmeZz
07-24-2008, 10:12 AM
At the moment I think Obama would win a rather comfortable victory. But there are months before November.

oldandslow
07-24-2008, 10:13 AM
Dewey Defeats Truman!!!!

A better example would be Mondale beating Reagon.

oh, wait.

SBK
07-24-2008, 10:16 AM
I've made it known that I don't like either candidate, but here's what I'm starting to think......

I think Obama is getting too big for his britches, and he's the most conceited man I've ever seen run for office. He's already parading around like he's won the thing....

Then in the background you have this guy that nobody cares about but he's fighting. He goes out each day and does his thing, trying to even stay in the news at all.

I'm starting to think the whole 'pride comes before a fall' or the story of the tortoise and the hare might just play out in this election.

And yes, I'm a racist bastard.

BigCatDaddy
07-24-2008, 10:19 AM
I have to agree. The more I see Obama, the more I think "Damm, this guy reminds me of the political Kobe Bryant". We know how popular he is outside LA.

HolmeZz
07-24-2008, 10:20 AM
I think you'll see Obama's popularity plummet if he begins raping white women. Just a guess.

BigCatDaddy
07-24-2008, 10:22 AM
I think you'll see Obama's popularity plummet if he begins raping white women. Just a guess.

Kobe was hated way before all that. They just have that "arrogant bastard" vibe about them. I think all the exposure Obama gets may backfire in the end as the American people serve up their favorite dish... humble pie.

Deberg_1990
07-24-2008, 10:24 AM
McCains problem is that a huge chunk of the traditional Republican base might just stay home and not vote.

HolmeZz
07-24-2008, 10:24 AM
Kobe was hated way before all that..

He was hated because he was a Laker and because they were winning, the same reason people hate Derek Jeter. He was not hated on a personal level. He was considered one of the 'good guys' before then.

SBK
07-24-2008, 10:25 AM
He was hated because he was a Laker and because they were winning. He was not hated on a personal level. He was considered one of the 'good guys' before then.

No he wasn't. People liked Shaq, hated Kobe.

VAChief
07-24-2008, 10:25 AM
I've made it known that I don't like either candidate, but here's what I'm starting to think......

I think Obama is getting too big for his britches, and he's the most conceited man I've ever seen run for office. He's already parading around like he's won the thing....

Then in the background you have this guy that nobody cares about but he's fighting. He goes out each day and does his thing, trying to even stay in the news at all.

I'm starting to think the whole 'pride comes before a fall' or the story of the tortoise and the hare might just play out in this election.

And yes, I'm a racist bastard.

You think maybe your perceptions are colored by your dislike for the candidate? You know the feeling when a guy hits a home run against your team and stands at home plate to admire it a little too long. When its your team we ignore it a little more than when it happens against us.

HolmeZz
07-24-2008, 10:29 AM
No he wasn't. People liked Shaq, hated Kobe.

People hated both of them during the Laker peak. The people who had anything against him personally likely never liked him to begin with, which is another problem with the silly Obama comparison. If you're going to make sports analogies, I'd say Barack is much more Jeter as a figure.

BigCatDaddy
07-24-2008, 10:29 AM
He was hated because he was a Laker and because they were winning, the same reason people hate Derek Jeter. He was not hated on a personal level. He was considered one of the 'good guys' before then.


He was hated because they are winning and he is an arrogant bastard, just like Obama on both accounts. He is also good at his craft as is Obama, so I'm not taking anything away from their talents. I'm just stating when I view Obama now, I get the same feeling that I do when I see Kobe.

HolmeZz
07-24-2008, 10:31 AM
He was hated because they are winning and he is an arrogant bastard, just like Obama on both accounts. He is also good at his craft as is Obama, so I'm not taking anything away from their talents. I'm just stating when I view Obama now, I get the same feeling that I do when I see Kobe.

Because you hate Obama. Most of the country doesn't dislike Obama, let alone personally hate him.

BigCatDaddy
07-24-2008, 10:32 AM
People hated both of them during the Laker peak. The people who had anything against him personally likely never liked him to begin with, which is another problem with the silly Obama comparison. If you're going to make sports analogies, I'd say Barack is much more Jeter as a figure.

Jeter never acts like an ass the way Kobe does. I don't hate Jeter and I was just making my own personal feelings known.

BigCatDaddy
07-24-2008, 10:34 AM
Because you hate Obama. Most of the country doesn't dislike Obama, let alone personally hate him.

That's the way America is, they build you up and then when you get to high they want to tear you down. I just think he is becoming more and more arrogant and the more arrogant he gets the more I don't want to see him win.

memyselfI
07-24-2008, 10:35 AM
Because you hate Obama. Most of the country doesn't dislike Obama, let alone personally hate him.


For now...

markk
07-24-2008, 10:35 AM
i dont think a landslide is possible anymore.

reagan beating mondale 59% to 40% was kind of an anomaly. other than that, it hasn't happened since the last kook was nominated. in the era of the new media it's more difficult to force on the public the one unified narrative of the corporate media. mccain does well with independents and faced with the possibility of obama, conservatives will show up. it will at least be close. i expect mccain to fare well in debates.

speaking of that, mccain should adapt that "i will not exploit for political gain my opponent's youth and inexperience" line

HolmeZz
07-24-2008, 10:37 AM
That's the way America is, they build you up and then when you get to high they want to tear you down. I just think he is becoming more and more arrogant and the more arrogant he gets the more I don't want to see him win.

You never wanted to see him win. :spock:

I think it's clear the Right wants a reason to personally hate Obama and they have yet to be given one.

memyselfI
07-24-2008, 10:42 AM
That's the way America is, they build you up and then when you get to high they want to tear you down. I just think he is becoming more and more arrogant and the more arrogant he gets the more I don't want to see him win.

I bet Tom Brady might know a thing or two about this. LMAOLMAO

Amnorix
07-24-2008, 10:45 AM
Yeah, well, based on all the objective evidence, the Patriots should've nailed the Giants in the Super Bowl by about 35 points too. Don't count those chickens until they've hatched.

memyselfI
07-24-2008, 10:49 AM
He was hated because they are winning and he is an arrogant bastard, just like Obama on both accounts. He is also good at his craft as is Obama, so I'm not taking anything away from their talents. I'm just stating when I view Obama now, I get the same feeling that I do when I see Kobe.

http://embeds.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/img_3380.jpg



http://embeds.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/07/20/obamas-757-is-back-in-service/

BigCatDaddy
07-24-2008, 10:49 AM
You never wanted to see him win. :spock:

I think it's clear the Right wants a reason to personally hate Obama and they have yet to be given one.

He's an liberal arrogant bastard. What more reason do I need?

memyselfI
07-24-2008, 10:49 AM
Yeah, well, based on all the objective evidence, the Patriots should've nailed the Giants in the Super Bowl by about 35 points too. Don't count those chickens until they've hatched.

Great minds. ;)

HolmeZz
07-24-2008, 10:51 AM
That's a beautiful plane.

If you're somehow offended by that, you need to remove the stick from your ass.

recxjake
07-24-2008, 10:51 AM
The polls say something else... they are getting tighter every day.

BigCatDaddy
07-24-2008, 10:54 AM
What, no throne?

HolmeZz
07-24-2008, 10:54 AM
He's an liberal arrogant bastard. What more reason do I need?

Being liberal is not a reason to hate somebody.

Arrogance? Every person who's ever run for President has been cocky to a certain degree. You have to be overconfident to think you should rule the free friggin' world. You've never voted in a Presidential Election and NOT voted for someone who could be called arrogant.

memyselfI
07-24-2008, 10:56 AM
That's a beautiful plane.

If you're somehow offended by that, you need to remove the stick from your ass.

I'm not. For most people, you need to reach a certain level of excellence BEFORE you get your own frickin plane. ROFLROFLROFL

http://www.hollywoodnoise.com/image.php?productid=16432

HolmeZz
07-24-2008, 10:57 AM
The polls say something else... they are getting tighter every day.

As evidenced by your beloved RCP average chart:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

BigCatDaddy
07-24-2008, 11:00 AM
Being liberal is not a reason to hate somebody.

Arrogance? Every person who's ever run for President has been cocky to a certain degree. You have to be overconfident to think you should rule the free friggin' world. You've never voted in a Presidential Election and NOT voted for someone who could be called arrogant.

It isn't? Is it okay to dislike someone that is a communist?


This guy is Kobe cocky.

VAChief
07-24-2008, 11:24 AM
It isn't? Is it okay to dislike someone that is a communist?


This guy is Kobe cocky.

My preferences are definitely left leaning, although I have voted for Republican candidates. I am okay if you want to label all liberals communists if you are okay with a label for all conservatives as fascists.

markk
07-24-2008, 11:28 AM
glad Obama finally got off Fort Marcy Airlines

Donger
07-24-2008, 11:45 AM
http://embeds.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/img_3380.jpg



http://embeds.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/07/20/obamas-757-is-back-in-service/

Doesn't McCain have his own plane?

I can't find a picture, so this will have to suffice:

memyselfI
07-24-2008, 11:54 AM
Doesn't McCain have his own plane?

Dunno. Don't care. 143 days on a job does not equate to the need for a plane with your name or your brand. :D

Donger
07-24-2008, 11:56 AM
Dunno. Don't care. 143 days on a job does not equate to the need for a plane with your name or your brand. :D

Well, McCain does it would seem. It's a 737 by the look of it, and Barack Hussein has a 757.

Donger
07-24-2008, 11:59 AM
Interesting. Barack Hussein's plane doesn't have his name written on it anywhere. Just his slogan, "Change You Can Believe In" and his symbol on the tail.

Velvet_Jones
07-24-2008, 12:04 PM
Because you hate Obama. Most of the country doesn't dislike Obama, let alone personally hate him.

I think you win the dumb**** award the this comment. Congrats.

HolmeZz
07-24-2008, 12:09 PM
I think you win the dumb**** award the this comment. Congrats.

Want to actually dispute what I said? Be my guest. The average poll has Obama at +23 in favorability.

StcChief
07-24-2008, 12:19 PM
Well, McCain does it would seem. It's a 737 by the look of it, and Barack Hussein has a 757.

Obama's plane needs Rims... what up with the stock wheels

Direckshun
07-24-2008, 12:58 PM
I haven't read this thread, but I keep up with electoral-vote.com every day, and by their daily estimations, Barack's winning this thing by an electoral vote margin of 80 points at LEAST.

Mr. Kotter
07-24-2008, 02:36 PM
Obama will need to be up by a minimum of 4-6 points in the swing states, to actually win. Given the current climate and trends, he should win. Obama SHOULD be the next President. Dems shouldn't get giddy though.

If he isn't up by 4-6 pts in those swing states prior to the election, don't be a bit surprised if McCain somehow miraculously pulls off one of the biggest upsets in political history.

The explanation: The Bradley Effect

SBK
07-24-2008, 02:45 PM
My preferences are definitely left leaning, although I have voted for Republican candidates. I am okay if you want to label all liberals communists if you are okay with a label for all conservatives as fascists.

You understand that fascists in history have been liberal correct?

SBK
07-24-2008, 02:49 PM
Anyway, as to my original comment.

I see people have used sports stars as examples, and the Jeter one was a good one. I hate the Yankmees, but I like Jeter quite a bit. A-Rod is a douche, as are most of the other guys in New York, but there's something likable about Jeter. He's not cocky, arrogant, or brash, he just goes out and does his job.

Tom Brady is another guy I can't stand, and it's not because he's good, it's his attitude. I hate Peyton Manning, not because of his attitude, but because of his talent. Except when he's whipping Denver of course.

My comment had to do with the guy's attitude. Whenever I see someone that cocky, that arrogant, and parading around before the game like they've already won---now I think of 18 and DOH! Amnorix had it right.

BigCatDaddy
07-24-2008, 03:23 PM
Obama will need to be up by a minimum of 4-6 points in the swing states, to actually win. Given the current climate and trends, he should win. Obama SHOULD be the next President. Dems shouldn't get giddy though.

If he isn't up by 4-6 pts in those swing states prior to the election, don't be a bit surprised if McCain somehow miraculously pulls off one of the biggest upsets in political history.

The explanation: The Bradley Effect

If McCain pulls of the upset then I'm giving credit to "the Kobe Effect"

Kobe Effect = Being an overexposed arrogant ass

VAChief
07-24-2008, 03:29 PM
You understand that fascists in history have been liberal correct?

Yes, I am aware of that I am also aware of how it has evolved as a term for extremist on the right, especially post-WWII. If someone wants to paint me as a communist because I have probably more left of center opinions than right fine. My point is it goes both ways. If you would prefer Nazi, Skin-head, Grand Wizard, or boil on my ass draft dodging hillbilly heroin addicted talk show host that would be just as acceptable.

irishjayhawk
07-24-2008, 03:52 PM
Dunno. Don't care. 143 days on a job does not equate to the need for a plane with your name or your brand. :D

What is he supposed to learn from the rest of the time "on the job"?

SBK
07-24-2008, 07:03 PM
Yes, I am aware of that I am also aware of how it has evolved as a term for extremist on the right, especially post-WWII. If someone wants to paint me as a communist because I have probably more left of center opinions than right fine. My point is it goes both ways. If you would prefer Nazi, Skin-head, Grand Wizard, or boil on my ass draft dodging hillbilly heroin addicted talk show host that would be just as acceptable.

I'd go with 'one who uses their brain.'

HolmeZz
07-24-2008, 07:36 PM
What is he supposed to learn from the rest of the time "on the job"?

We all know CCW was voting for Edwards because of his 'experience'.

Same with Hillary.

VAChief
07-24-2008, 08:28 PM
I'd go with 'one who uses their brain.'

So it is okay to throw out blanket caricatures except when it comes back at you. I see. Fair enough.

SBK
07-24-2008, 09:24 PM
So it is okay to throw out blanket caricatures except when it comes back at you. I see. Fair enough.

Check your sarcasm meter, it's broken. :D

markk
07-24-2008, 09:37 PM
i thought this title said erection, btw